The bad news is that Chris Kirksey and James Burgess are likely to miss the Ravens game with injuries. The good news is that Gregg Williams will be forced to play a better linebacker: Genard Avery.
I've been trying to figure out why Gregg seems reluctant to put Avery on the field more often.
Avery is, of course, a rookie, and rookies make mistakes, so certainly that's one factor. The timing might actually be right for Avery's starting debut, as he now has four games under his belt.
As I've posted before (with difficulty because I really like the guy) Christian Kirksey is actually not even average per PFF. In fact, James Burgess grades out pretty well (higher than Chris).
But Avery is better than both of them. He's bigger, stronger, faster, and quicker too.
I don't believe coverage is an issue. For one thing, Avery was pretty good (if "inconsistent") in college; projecting to be better than both these other guys (who are below average in coverage).
For another thing, MLB Joe Schobert is apparently the main coverage linebacker (maybe with Jamie Collins) this year.
Avery is a terrific passrusher, strongly resembling a faster, less psychotic James Harrison (as I've posted).
Harrison was a 3-4 outside linebacker, and that's also really Avery's best position--but he's fully capable of playing any position in any scheme well.
All of this is repetitive for the few of you who read this Blog over time (sorry bout that) but it's important right now.
Genard Avery is going to become a GREAT NFL player, as good or better than James Harrison, and that could start this sunday vs the Ratbirds.
It's kind of the perfect storm. He's now been through camp and played parts of four games in Gregg's system. In the comparatively few reps he's had, he's made a real impact.
As his scouting reports point out, he's not perfect (yet), and Gregg seems to have been easing him in to the "starting" role while also using him as a dedicated situational edge-rusher.
With Ogbah healthy again, and Ogunjobi doing his Warren Sapp imitation, Williams is trying to cut down on blitzes now...and that's probably another reason that Williams replaced Kirksey with Burgess instead of Avery...
Gregg might tweak things vs the Ravens to max out Avery as a passrusher; I think he might use more 3-4 "looks", ie (what I would do):
1: Base the defensive line on three players: Garrett, Ogunjobi, and Ogbah. This neccessarily places Garrett and Ogunjobi in the B-gaps, but moves them closer to Flacco, and they athleticly overmatch every guard in the NFL.
2: ROTATE Smith, (former Raven) Davis, and Thomas in (I repeat: Gregg IS dumb to run Garrett and Ogunjobi into the ground like he did vs the Raiders. They were SHOT! One-gap defensive linemen HAVE TO BE rested--they do wind-sprints against resistance on every snap!)
3: Use Collins, Schobert, and Avery at linebacker.
I know this describes a 3-3 nickel, but that's really a base set in 2018, and that will apply to the Ravens offense this week.
At any time, Collins can turn it into a 4-man front by putting his hand in the dirt outside a tackle, and of course Avery can attack the pocket from anywhere, so you can have your 4-man "big people" passrush without taking anybody out of coverage.
As I've repeated ad-nauseum, Gregg Williams leans hard on a "big" nickel with a Peppers or a Kindred playing like a souped-up run-and-hit linebacker, and a Damarius Randall trying to keep a lid on the whole thing.
The Superbowl Seahawks did a lot of what Gregg Williams is doing now.
4: Rotate the defensive linemen.
5: Rotate the defensive linemen. In short yardage situations, former Raven Carl Davis is a legitimate two-gap space-eating nose tackle who can actually move around and tackle people too.
Chris Smith and Chad Thomas are defensive tackle/end hybrids ideally suited to spell Garrett and Ogbah (especially on the aforementioned short yardage downs).
Gregg, I know you want your best players on the field as often as possible, but this is getting out of hand, okay? You are KILLING these guys!
6: Rotate the defensive linemen so they can do more than fall on their faces at crunch-time. (and Gregg have your IT people fix that issue that kicks back my texts and emails back as "undeliverable" okay? I could have saved you a lot of trouble last week!)
Don't get me wrong: I am second-guessing Gregg Williams on this issue. Yep.
The 2018 Ravens are not as overrrated as they usually are, and this will be a tough game.
The Ravens defense is excellent, at every level, and in every way. (Oh goodie! Jimmy Smith just got back too!)
This Ravens defense is possibly the best in the NFL (Just the facts, man--deal with it).
That's why in my last post I suggested that Todd Haley do something revolutianary and outlandish like running a (Chubb/Johnson) two-back offense.
Hear me out: The Ravens defense has stuffed (or destroyed) every offense they have faced (except for the Bengals)...oh wait...
I just checked that out: Mixon was healthy, and averaged 4 YPC, and Bernard 4.5 on 6 carries. These two caught five passes for around 20 yards.
They capped AJ Green off at 69 yards (except he got 3 TDs), but Tyler Boyd got 91.
Interestingly, 3 Bengal tight ends caught 7 passes for 79 yards.
This is instructive here, because the Bengals resemble the Browns in 2018 (except our AJ Green is in New England now dammit).
The Bengals (like everybody else) run a single-back offense with 3-4 wides.
That worked out pretty well for them vs the Ravens, but they ran the ball 27 times. It helped that they led the scoring for much of the game, and that the Bengals own defense did a good job.
The Bengals threw 24 passes, so they were "run-heavy" in this game.
Todd Haley will probably see this, and try to run the ball on the Ravens. He still needs to protect his embryonic left tackle Desmond Harrison, and has a good run-blocking offensive line otherwise.
But he doesn't have Cinci's wide receivers now that Gordon is gone. There is no AJ Green here. Callaway is certainly like Tyler Boyd/Ross, and Landry is better than advertized, but there's no skyscraper deep threat here (yet: Damion Ratley should become one).
I wouldn't try to copy the Bengals if I were me. Callaway (even more than everybody else) has the dropsies, and the current Browns wide receivers don't match the Bengals.
Yep. You got it: Go two-back (like I said).
(Redundancy alert) Chubb/Johnson to the huddle demands either a base defense or a big nickel. It would be a big nickel for the Ravens, as they would assume that Duke would go to the slot and become a wide receiver.
But then what if he lines up in the backfield? OMG! Two running backs in the backfield!?! At the same time? No fullbacks? This does not compute!
Referring back to Bengals vs Ravens, Andy Dalton dinked and dunked underneath for most of the game. Baker Mayfield can do that.
Two running backs are two potential bodyguards, as well as two potential outlet receivers. In play-action, the guy you fake the handoff to becomes a receiver, and blows the doors off the guy who had to come up to stuff him.
The two-back allows for three receivers, and these would usually be Landry, Callaway, and Njoku. I know you're not used to hearing this, but these are three scary guys.
Usually, the free safety needs to hang back, especially vs a Baker Mayfield, who always looks deep first, and can hit tiny windows. This is not optional vs Baker Mayfield. That free safety HAS TO stay deep.
The Ravens will still be able to put seven "in the box" to stuff the run and disrupt crossing patterns, but let's let Baker Mayfield do what Brian Sipe (and Bernie Kosar) did:
Check down to that impossible-to-account-for running back in the flats; uncovered and in space, with lots of green grass in front of him.
Infante called these dumpoffs "long handoffs". That's accurate: The running back got the ball outside, uncovered and at-speed, behind the line of scrimmage, "in space".
The best any defense could/can do to "cover" this is to "spy" it and have a safety or linebacker kinda mirror him, and then try to nail him in space without help.
Gregg Pruitt was a human pinball, but the much-less talented Earnest Byner did the same thing to opposing defenses later.
Todd Haley: ditto the IT suggestion I made to Gregg about that glitch, but no doubt you read this Blog, so let Nick Chubb out of his cage, put Duke Johnson next to him, and let Mayfield do the Sipe thing here.
Much has been made of Nick Chubb's spectacular performance vs the Raiders (I guesstimate he averages around 24 ypc now, and like one TD every 3 carries).
Nick no doubt needs work in pass-protection, but is clearly a better ball-carrier than Hyde. I'm close to second-guessing Haley here:
Baker Mayfield gets rid of the ball as quickly as almost any QB in the NFL. Todd, I know you had Kurt Warner and the "Greatest Show on Turf" once.
You were a creative innovator then; you saw saw opportunities and soft spots and built an offense around your talent to exploit the blockheads.
Then you made Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and Ebineezer Bell what they are, but what are you NOW?
RUN A TWO-BACK WITH CHUBB AND DUKE. I can guarantee you that Duke can lead-block like Byner did for Mack, and bet you Chubb can return the favor.
Todd, you haven't become a blockhead, have you? Belichick is a lot older than you, ya know?
You want your best players on the field amap, right? Aren't Johnson and Chubb two of those?
I can see DeValve with (or instead of) Njoku, but aren't you a little light on proven veteran wide receivers here? Last week, these clowns dropped seven passes! Duke only dropped ONE! Same as Landry. Callaway dropped THREE (I think).
Jeez put Callaway on probation and Higgins on-deck and USE Duke Johnson as a receiver and maybe give Ratley a shot.
Honest, you guys: The bulk of this aint rocket science. Bill Belichick is a genius, but most of what he's done was uncommon sense.
But he doesn't COPY anybody else, see? Everybody else copies HIM!
Aw crap nevermind: Todd Haley and Gregg Williams need to max out the players they have, in their own way, period.
Hue Jackson is on the hot seat. He should have been fired when Dorsey was hired, but in previous posts I've explained why Haslam had no choice but to retain him.
Hue sucks, and so does the Special Teams guy (Dorsey did that, I think. Nobody's perfect here).
Come to think of it, I figure DePodesta would have fired Jackson, NOT hired a bottom five special teams coach, drafted Mayfield not sure about Ward over Chubb--but then Gregg Williams had a vote---yeah it would have been Ward anyway.
I bet you Genard Avery was a DePodesta pick, along with Ratley. Nick Chubb (where he was drafted) has Paul's fingerprints all over it.
But I digress.
I think the Browns are more talented than the Ravens, and should beat them, but Hue is still the Head Coach, the zebras are still the zebras, the Browns are still young, and the Ravens do look real scary.
The Browns SHOULD beat the Ravens, but Baker Mayfield keeps hitting recievers in their hands, and that's been a big problem so far.
Maybe they're in shock.
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