Saturday, October 13, 2018

Browns v Chargers, Why the Browns Will Win, Baker Mayfield, Ratley, and Stuff

Signing Breshad Perriman was an intriguing move, but it hadn't become a "neccessity" due to the losses of Higgins and Willies, after dumping Josh Gordon.

Landry, Callaway, Rodney Ratleyfield, and Streater are four guys, with Duke Johnson the defacto fifth.  And who ever said you had to have five or six wide receivers anyway, when two of your tight ends can run wide receiver routes?

I'd be shocked if Perriman gets any snaps this sunday, as a few pundits seem to think.  He is clueless about this system, and has a lot of catching up to do.

The intriguing part of Perriman is his irrefutable physical talent.  Drafted in the first round, he has just plain been a bust.

His pre-draft scouting report documents stellar athletic talent and nice production, but questioned his hands, route-running, and physicality.

Certainly, the Ravens gave him every opportunity, and apparently, he just never progressed.

John Dorsey will pay Perriman peanuts to see if a change of scenery or the wake-up call of his unheralded release might get his butt in gear.

In reality, he will start at the bottom of the wide receiver depth chart.  That's behind Willies, Higgins, Ratley, and even Streater.  

It's sink-or-swim time for Perriman, because Higgins and Willies will be back.

This was a massively smarter signing by John Dorsey than Dez Bryant would have been.  Really, he's filling out the bottom of his roster for chump-change.

Say...Perriman might help on special teams too!  Might salvage his carreer that way if he doesn't get his head out as a receiver.

The Browns should NOT trade for Odell Beckham Jr., obviously.  Here are a few reasons why:

1: He is a mentally unstable prima donna.  He is distuptive, and a MAJOR distraction.

2: He is one of the highest paid wide receivers in the NFL.

3: The Giants would demand multiple draft picks, starting with a first rounder.

4: Some of us would like to see guys like Ratley and Willies you know...play! 

Lord Insideous in New England loves to nab troubled players and max them out.  Josh Gordon was the latest example (and stand by/look tf out).

But Bill wouldn't touch this guy with a ten foot pole.  Note that he never even considered Dez Bryant.  There are reasons for this.

Fortunately, John Dorsey is a former player.  He understands what a horrific mess Beckham will make, wherever he plays.

Some of the "pump your brakes" comments on Baker Mayfield are just plain dumb.  Don't start mentioning how this rookie or that rookie started out hot and then crapped out.

Baker Mayfield started 46 games in college, and has PROVEN that he sees the whole field pre and post-snap.  

Per Pat Kirwan, college quarterbacks with under 28-30 starts often hit a wall in the NFL as soon as opposing defenses have enough tape to attack their weaknesses.

And (sorry to redundate here) Baker Mayfield HAS NO WEAKNESSES.  He adapts, instantly, to whatever defenses try to do to him.

While Patrick Mahomes is all the rage right now, and a better athlete than Mayfield, Mayfield is more accurate, and has a similar didactic memory, and similar instincts.

If you expect Baker Mayfield to fall on his face, or even hit more than a speed-bump, you don't get it.

This week, skipping the numbers, PFF rates the Browns offensive line like this:

Tretter high quality, Zeitler and Bitonio above average, and Harrison/Hubbard average.  This is great news for left tackle Des Harrison, since he's just an embryo now, and to read the reports from the Ravens game, Terrell Suggs punked him out.

He did not.  

The Chargers run a 4-3, and here's PFF's take on their front four:

Ingram and Philon (weakside DE and strongside DT respectively) are high quality, weakside DT Rochell is average, and strongside DE Nwosu is below average.

I don't have time to dig into the run vs pass rankings for these players, or the Chargers' rotational/situational defensive linemen, but for the moment, I reckon Des Harrison will be ready to give Ingram a harder time than he gave Suggs (*he practices against Garrett by the way*), and well...

The analyst who expected the Browns to lose because the Chargers would pressure Mayfield too much was delusional.

Conversely, Phil Rivers has done an amazing job, considering his downright inferior (per PFF) offensive line.

Center Pouncy is above average, the right guard is average, and everybody else is below average (or worse; notably left guard Feeney, who is "poor").

Myles Garrett (high quality) will attack left tackle Tevi (average), 

Interestingly, PFF rates Browns RCB Gaines as above average, and no need to mention Ward.

Allen is Rivers' "X" receiver, and Ward matches up with him.  The rest of the Browns corners are (per PFF) significantly better than the Chargers' wide receivers.

But the Chargers have this guy named Melvin Gordon at running back, Austin Ekeler (a lethal weapon who can catch), and a tight end named Virgil Green.

The Browns are STILL unable to stifle opposing tight ends, and both running backs are terrific receivers.

The Chargers will target Green, try to pound the ball, use Gordon/Ekeler as second or third targets, and Philip Rivers will do some damage; he's better than Eli Manning ever was.

Green and Gordon will do more damage than anybody else.  Rivers will be under intense pressure, and both these guys are easy checkdowns vs this Browns' defense.

But Rivers isn't a great athlete, and Gregg Williams can kitchen-sink him without regard to containment.

The Browns are still being underestimated.  I didn't even mention Schobert and Randall ("high quality") or Peppers (above average).

Ok ok: Kirksey is below average.  So is Collins, Coley, and (marginally) Ogbah.  But that's numbers:

Genard Avery, Chad Thomas, Chis Smith, and Derrick Kindred are not included here, and given that the nickel is the real base defense for every team in the NFL, they matter.

I'm frankly surprised that Avery isn't starting yet/that Kirksey is.  I guess I can see how you want to give Jamie Collins a lot of rope, but the fact is that he has not lived up to his hype thus far.

If I were me, I would start Genard Avery, use Kindred a lot, demote Coley and Kirksey, tell Jamie Collins that he is on thin ice, and ask John Dorsey to try to trade him.

I would also sell out to an all-one-gap front four ala Bud Carson (architect of the "Steel Curtain", former Browns Head Coach, and legendary defensive coordinator).

Gregg says he wants his best eleven players on the field as often as possible, no matter how he has to adapt to them.

...well?

Anyway, I fully expect the Browns to beat the Chargers tomorrow in First Energy Stadium, because they're more talented, have a real quarterback at long last...

Well okay there's the crappy special teams and the referees and the receivers inexplicable chronic drops...but like I said, the Browns have a real quarterback now.

Baker Mayfield is just getting started here, but he's already defeated the Ravens defense, and rallied from a 14 point deficit vs the Jets in a little over one half, despite bad calls and a BUNCH of drops.

You think, after that, the Chargers' defense will screw him up? You expect Ingram to punk Harrison?  The Bolts to pressure Mayfield without blitzing?  Rivers to do more than dink and dunk?

Adjusted for special teams and refs: Browns 55, Chargers 12.

Seriously, my fellow Browns fans, the "curse" is over.  Baker Mayfield is the real deal, and (unlike poor Tim Couch) his arm is all good, and he is surrounded by protection, weapons, and a top-flight defense.

Just the facts, man.  New paradigm.  This Chargers' defense is the softest he's faced (yes: including the Jets).

The Chargers are a very good team, but the Browns are better, period, and will beat them.






No comments: