Sunday, May 6, 2018

Gregg Williams' Defense, Tyrod, Baker, Ogbah, and the Browns

Dan Justik wrote a good article explaining how, with the addition of three new cornerbacks and Damarius Randall, Gregg Williams can actually run his kind of defense again.

A couple corrections before I continue: Dan seems not to be a Sashi Brown fan, so he takes some shots at the talent Gregg had to work with last season.

Well, prior to the season, a fully healed Joe Haden was expected to return to his Pro Bowl form.  Jamar Taylor was coming off the best season of his carreer.  Howard Wilson was drafted, but his season ended before it began with an injury (blame Sashi for that too?)  Jason McCourtey was signed, and turned out to be the best cornerback on the team.

Dan also refers to the "safety lining up 20 yards off the ball" stuff as if it's not something Williams wanted to do, but had to.  No, that's a Gregg Williams thing, and he doesn't care if Dan or anybody else thinks it's dumb.

But Dan nailed the rest of it down pretty well (maybe he reads my blogs and pretends he thought of this stuff himself too):

Gregg found himself without press/man cornerbacks, and had to play zone.  Zone can work, but that's not Gregg's thing.

Attacking defenses in general need press/man cornerbacks to disrupt timing and keep the number one and ideally number two receivers covered for as long as possible.

As Gregg himself said, he counted about 26 instances last season where Myles Garrett was a couple feet away from quarterbacks when they threw the ball (quickly).

Zone or off-man coverages force recievers to run shorter routes, and work better against the run.  It's very hard to throw bombs against zones, but unfortunately the trade-off is that quarterbacks can get rid of the ball quickly, and every receiver is actually open for at least the first five yards.

Now, Denzel Ward will be on opposing number one receivers, and (as of now) EJ Gaines will be on the number two.  Since Gaines played for Williams before, we can assume that he's a "Williams signing" and that he will start as a press/man corner.

Nickel corner was never a problem here, as Briean Boddy-Calhoun is just outstanding there.

Digression alert: Nickel corner is actually tougher to play than perimeter corner.  The nickel doesn't have the sidelines to help him.  The slot guy can break to either side.  You really can't jam him the way the outside guys can, so you have to play at least a little off to keep him in front of you until he commits.  End of digression.

That takes care of the outside guys and the slot guy.  Dan goes on to correctly, for once (good job Dan!) put Jabrill Peppers at linebacker/SS hybrid.

When he isn't blitzing, Jabrill can cover tight ends or running backs.  He has the speed and quickness for it, even though vs tight ends he's at a big height/reach disadvantage.

Joe Haden in his prime shut down AJ Green, Megatron, and other skyscrapers with his quickness and intelligence, and Peppers has a chance to be effective covering tight ends.

People forget that Jabrill Peppers was a linebacker (predominantly) in college.

Derrick Kindred was doing a lot of this last season, but was not very good in coverage.  We can expect him to improve at least a little in that area, but he was great against the run, and as a blitzer.

Now we come to Damarius Randall, the projected "angel" safety:

Dan doesn't seem to get this, but Gregg Williams sometimes lines his free safety up very deep.

There are several reasons for this:

1: He can "read" the entire offense, and ideally see what they're up to before he takes any false steps.

2: He can deceive the quarterback by drifting one way or the other, but has plenty of time to break to, and stay "over" the real target.

3: If a receiver shakes loose early, he will see it, and aim at that receiver, who will usually make the catch before he can get there, but he can still de-cleat him, and maybe force a fumble.

4: He is always moving towards the line of scrimmage. Everybody else is scrambling around trying to stick with guys, but the angel is not in that hot mess.  But he's coming forward looking for big hits or interceptions.

If you didn't know why Gregg Williams played Jabrill Peppers at free safety in 2017 before, now you do.

But Peppers had never played free safety, and he took bad angles, and "took too much bait".

Damarius Randall is a different story.  He was a free safety in college.  Green Bay used him at cornerback, and he was very good there, but he is a safety first (haha get it? "Safety first" ok nevermind).

Randall's size (5'11", under 200 lbs) isn't relevant.  His judgement and instincts are all that matter, and he has a real chance here, because he is an experienced center fielder, now with highly refined coverage skills.

The "angel" was, and will be, used only 30-35% of the time.  The free safety will otherwise play a more conventional role.

Randall should be fine there.

How this should work is that opposing quarterbacks are forced to hold the ball for over four seconds, which is more than enough time for a passrusher or three to reach them.

This is partly mental and psychological (Gregg is just da MAN!):  Rodgers and Brees are rare birds.  No other quarterbacks (well except Mayfield...ahem...) think so fast under pressure.

Most of them can't get past their second, or maybe third "read" before all bets are off and they're in survival mode.

The best of the rest throw it away (if they can---sometimes you can't because somebody will bat it up in the air or grab your arm or something).

A guy like Russell Wilson or Tyrod Taylor might run like hell and salvage the play, but make no mistake: their prescribed "reads" are shot to hell, and they're just looking for a bailout guy or just running.

Gregg Williams wants opposing quarterbacks in panic-mode on every passing down.  He wants them desperate and flustered.

That's why he always sends four passrushers, and blitzes a fifth as often as not on neutral downs.

Oh, I hear you: Wouldn't Bradley Chubb have helped that out a lot?

Not that much.  Williams called Ogbah a "rising star", and if you don't agree with him, you're wrong.  Chubb might be somewhat better than Ogbah, but not by the margin you hallucinate.

Williams explained the Ward over Chubb pick, and I get it now.  If opposing quarterbacks have to hold the ball for another 0.5 seconds, Nassib, Chad Thomas, etc (along with three of four defensive tackles) come into play right behind Garrett and Ogbah.

I remember the Kardiac Kids.  Clay Matthews was a beast, but Hanford Dixon, Frank Minnifield, and Felix Wright bought him something like half his sacks.  The Raiders of that era were similar.

I'm glad Gregg spoke up for Ogbah.  Emmanuel Ogbah's combine numbers and college production are comparable to Bradley Chubbs'.  This is no doubt why Gregg Williams said he can be Chubb!

Ah somebody I can bash!  I included the link because these are just fans, and not actual pundits I could hurt by humiliating:

One guy thinks they could have drafted Barkley first, and still got Mayfield at four.  Wanna bet?  Don't believe everything you read: Baker Mayfield was the best quarterback in this class, and the Jets knew it too.

These fans also all called Mayfield a "risk". No, the best quarterback was not a risk.  He was the safest pick.

The general perception among the unwashed masses seems to be that Mayfield is a scrambler and improviser who isn't as fast as Russell Wilson and is too short and stuff.

LISTEN CAREFULLY: Baker Mayfield is a pocket passer who has made most of his big plays from the pocket.

DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

Why is Russell Wilson relevant?  

A couple of these misguided souls mentioned Drew Brees, except only to imply that Mayfield isn't as good as this other short quarterback.

Who says?

Darnold and Allen were both punked by top level opponents, while Mayfield always piled up big numbers, and usually found ways to win.

Mayfield lost his top two receivers to injury and kept on truckin, so don't even start with those rationalizations.

Why THE HELL are people even calling Sam Darnold the safest quarterback in this draft class!?!

Ohmm...ohmmm...

Ok I get it, but it's shallow and superficial:

Darnold is big and tough, and his lack of experience combined with his success implies great upside/potential.  He's very smart.  He makes great, accurate throws on the run (to his left, as well as to his right).

But dammit, aside from their respective sizes, Mayfield does everything Darnold does, and is more accurate too!

How can you call Darnold "safer" than Mayfield here?  

Go ahead, go back and compare Baker Mayfield to Sam Darnold from their first respective starts.  You will see that Mayfield was always much better.

And quit grading on a curve here! I know it's hard to beat 70% completions in the NFL,  but what makes you think Sam Darnold or anybody else can even get close to Mayfield in accuracy?  You think they can learn that?

Mayfield is the best, and will stay the best.  Mayfield played great "under the lights" vs elite competition, including Bowl games.  He NEVER had a "bad game".

...and Sam Darnold was a safer pick?

I don't hate Darnold at all, or Rosen (except personally), or Josh Allen.

Darnold was the second-safest pick.  He really is amazing in several ways, and his inexperience does imply lots of upside.

Rosen is an ahole, but his talent is irrefutable.  But he's strictly a pocket passer with two concussions.  If not for those, he would be even safer than Mayfield.

Allen is just a freak.  A prototype.  He will become more accurate, and at least "not suck".

But Baker Mayfield was a "can't miss".  

You really need to understand this:

The greatest quarterbacks in history come in all shapes and sizes.  Joe Montana, possibly the best ever, was short, with a popgun arm.

What separates them from the rest is between their ears.

Baker Mayfield is that guy!  Laugh at me now but believe me later: 3-5 years from now, Baker Mayfield will remain the best quarterback out of this draft class.

The Tyrod Taylor extention thing is unlikely.  Tyrod isn't interested in being a backup, and won't accept backup money.

Dorsey won't offer him 22 mil/year either (not that Tyrod would accept it anyway, if he's to become a backup again).

Tyrod will use this season as an audition for teams that need a starter.

So Tyrod is almost certainly a GMF in 2019.

Some of this BS is fueled by uncertainty over Mayfield.  Disregard that.  Baker Mayfield is not a "project".  He might be better than Tyrod on opening day (if not sooner).

I like Tyrod too, but Mayfield in 2019 is a lock.

I can't fathom all this doubt about this kid! You people need to get unstuck from this height obsession -snap-snap- ...ok pretend Baker is 1 3/8th inches taller (6'2")...


Can you see how silly you are? The width of three fingers overrides everything else?  Is any of this sinking in yet?


Okbye


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