Monday, May 28, 2018

Big Ben: Myles Garrett is the Tip of the Ice Berg.

Randy Gurzi wrote a nice article on Damarius Randall at free safety, which was quite reassuring:

In his final college season (at free safety) Randall had 106 tackles.  That's a ton o take-downs, and strongly indicates that he rarely blew any.

One old scouting report I read said he sometimes took "poor angles" when tracking down ball carriers in the open field, but 106 tackles puts the lie to that.  That's over nine tackles per-game; comparable to the best middle linebackers!

It makes even more sense now that Gregg Williams had him earmarked for free safety from the start.

Randall was a "pretty good" cornerback for the Packers, in every type of coverage, but this was never his best position.

Still, playing cornerback obviously forced him to learn and refine skills he otherwise wouldn't have, giving him an edge over most other safeties in some situations (especially when a quarterback is able to "buy time" and receivers are coming back or going postal).

Randall has another edge, as well:  He has actually covered many of the receivers he will face, up close and personal.  He can anticipate them on a more instinctive/intuitive level than free safeties who only have "big picture" and game-film experience with them.

But back to all those tackles he made in his last college season:

To redundate, Gregg Williams uses his "Angel" formation on less than one out of three downs, and the free safety otherwise plays a more conventional role.

When he does use it, it discourages deep patterns and throws, as the quarterback and receivers see that human road-block roaming around back there.

But the Angel has to read the play quickly, and will usually be drifting forward, towards the line of scrimmage, less than a second after the snap.

His bird's eye view lets him see everything every offensive player is doing, and read the play.

He is expected to make a correct decision, and commit to it.  That might be anticipating a zone cut-back and blowing it up, or which receiver is the slant-pass target and blowing him up, or whatever.

The Angel safety is absolutely not passive.

Jabrill Peppers was tried there because he has the speed and muscle for it, and is actually a very smart guy.

It didn't work out, but like Randall, he should benefit from that experience, as he was trying to read and react to the "big picture", instead of playing linebacker/strong safety, like he more or less did for Harbaugh in college.

He'll have a deeper understanding of what opposing offenses are trying to pull on his defense, and him in particular.  Maybe for the first time, he can add "turnovers" to his resume.

Critics of some of these Browns' players are overboard.  No NFL roster in history has yet fielded eleven Pro Bowl players.  The best defenses in history rarely sent more than three guys to the Pro Bowl.

So get real.

The current Browns defense includes Pro Bowl alternate Joe Schobert, Myles Garrett, former Pro Bowler Jamie Collins, and instacontender Denzel Ward.

I now suggest that Briean Boddy-Calhoun, Ogunjobi, Randall, and Peppers have shots at the Pro Bowl as well.

Peppers returns to his natural position, and if he can get a couple picks and force a couple fumbles, he could sneak in there.

Calhoun is probably THE best nickel back in the NFL, and should have made it last season.  He's played safety (well), too.

Ogunjobi was impressive as a rookie, and will get a lot more snaps in his second season.  He gets sacks and blows things up.  With both Garrett and Ogbah flanking him, offenses will have to try blocking him with one guy--and it won't work.

Gurzi says "don't forget about Jamie Collins", and points out that in 15 games in 2016, he averaged more than ten tackles per game.

That's impressive for a middle linebacker, but for a SAM it's rediculous.  Collins got dented and dinged in 2017, then kayoed with an ACL (I think), but Randy expects him to be a badass again upon his healthy return.

In the fifth round, Dorsey drafted Genard Avery.  Avery slid that far only because he's a shade over 6' tall.

But he's stronger, quicker, and faster than every other linebacker on this roster (and he's way up there in the NFL too).

Pro Day and Combine numbers aside, his production in college (as mainly a middle linebacker) was outstanding as well (no "workout warrior" here!)

People ass ume he's a middle linebacker here, but that's less than half-right.  Genard Avery can play any 4-3 or 3-4 linebacker position.  (I'll explain the "3-4" assertion if challenged, but the Cliff Notes version is "Harrison, James").

The middle linebacker kneejerk conclusion-leap is especially funny to me, because Gregg Williams' MIKE is his field general:

He sets up the defense and calls the plays as the offense breaks the huddle and deploys.  Unless Avery the rookie can do that as well as Joe Schobert does, that battle won't even happen.

Pat Kirwan actually sees Avery as a weakside linebacker!  He's right, too.

In 2018, Avery will of course play special teams, but he will also compete at every linebacker slot, and no doubt at the very least become the primary backup at at least one.

Redundancy alert: Avery will probably also be a situational passrusher.  When I wrote about this before, it was more garbage in-garbage out based on dumbass scouting reports: Avery can cover, so Gregg could set him up on the edge and not "send" him!

It's amazing to me that you people don't know how good Genard Avery is.  

Shifting to offense, Terry Pluto is overly trepidatious (yes I invented that word) for me on the Browns wide receivers.

Terry has whatifitis (yeah made that one up too):

He stipulates Jarvis Landry the clutch/possession guy (yay!), but then talks about the risks of Gordon, Callaway, and Coleman (the big-play guys).

What are the odds that Gordon and Callaway fall off the wagon, and Coleman craps out too?

Terry makes a great point on the (PFF) "drop" rate of the Browns receivers last year, but Gordon was fine, Coleman was bad but not that bad, Higgins was okay, and Louis...nevermind.

I love and respect Terry Pluto, but sometimes he tries too hard to be "objective".  He probably majored in urinalism in college, and was able to transcend the brainwashing...

Anyway, in the real world, Josh Gordon is unlikely to fall off the wagon now.  Callaway's issues were only superficially "drug"- related, Gordon is his "been there done that" sponsor, and Coleman just broke his hand twice and needs to grow up.

Terry is overboard here:

Look at the tools Tyrod Taylor got into the playoffs with last season.  Delete Gordon, Callaway, and Coleman, and he's still got better weapons (and protection, and defense)!

But I'm being unfair to Terry Pluto here: He never said "the sky is falling"; just expressed some legit concerns he had about the wide receivers.

Frankly, the "drop rate" stats he cited shocked me.

Still, the unprepared rookie DeShone Kizer irrefutably sucked, and Tyrod Taylor is irrefutably better, and Todd Haley is irrefutably better than Hue Palmer.

Njoku (and DeValve) are better than Charles Clay, these combined running backs are better than LeShaun McCoy, and this offensive line will be better than Tyrod's in 2017 as well.

Buffalo's defense wasn't bad in 2017, but won't compare to the one Gregg Williams will field in 2018, either.

And check this out: Dorsey signed a 31-year old Darren Fells, who might just be the best in-line blocking tight end in the NFL.

He signed (and overpaid) Jarvis Landry, who is a great blocker.  Instead of drafting the most promising left tackle, he drafted Austin Corbett.

In Nick Chubb, he took THE most physical, hard-nosed running back in this draft class.

Carlos Hyde is similar to Chubb, and Hubbard is a run-blocker first too.  If you can't add all this up, I can't help you (oh no wait!  I can!)

Captain Obvious says that Todd Haley intends to run the ball a LOT.  

At first glance, you can't see it.  Landry spells 3-wide, and Njoku/DeValve aren't in-line blockers, and that looks like four-wide.

No problem! Haley will force nickel and dime defenses onto the field, spread them out, and render stacked boxes impossible.

The defenses will be faster but lighter, and his running backs will have holes, and can run little people over.

He'll zone-block a lot.  This will give the new left tackle an edge when it's a pass, and set up read-options, run-pass options, rollouts etc perfectly.

Haley will convince Hue Fisher not to show this in preseason, which works out fine, since Mayfield needs work on his under-center skills anyway, and Taylor still needs work on that too.

Ideally, Haley will show Hue Fisher (power/man inside runs etc) through preseason.

This should "look right", since this offense has the talent to make it work.  

...then in game one vs the Steelers, he springs his trap.

The Steelers coaches might even see it coming, but can't be certain of it; they'll still have to prepare for the cave-man offense they've seen in preseason, since that's very physical and "in your face".

And it's also hard to prepare for zone blocking anyway, beyond one-gapping four guys and...

Well it's just not easy, ok?  Zone runs look the same to defenders as pass-blocking, so...

Cliff Notes: If the Browns play their preseason right, they could upset the Steelers in game one.

Hue Palmer couldn't do this, but Todd Haley can.




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