The oddsmakers aren't making any predictions. They're just setting this line right where they think that half the betting public will take the high side, and half the low side.
This line is going to go up, once people start paying more attention and making actual wagers.
The Browns have the talent, and now the coaching, to compete with any team in the NFL, finally including two quarterbacks.
Let's just compare them with one Superbowl contender within their own Division:
Big Ben has to get the nod at quarterback, of course, but it's closer than you think. Context, remember?
1: Big Ben had a good pass-blocking offensive line, and Taylor did not.
2: Ben had really good wide receivers, and Taylor didn't.
3: Todd Haley was coaching Ben, and is now coaching Tyrod.
4: Taylor is a dual threat. His passing stats can't be viewed in a vaccuum.
5: With the Browns, Taylor will have a supporting cast similar to the Steelers': Better than he's had in his carreer.
Laveon Bell also must get the nod at running back, but the Browns have superior depth. The Steelers can't pay Ebineezer's rediculous asking price, and are resolved to lose him in 2019.
They're probably going to run him right into the ground to get the most out of him while he's still a Steeler. This won't matter in game one, but certainly could in game 16.
More context: Draft pick Nick Chubb has traits in common with Bell, and under Todd Haley could become much like him.
But the Browns offensive line is just as good as the Steelers'. The Browns tight ends are much better. (note to Tony Grossi: Darren Fells is possibly the best blocking tight end in the NFL).
The Steelers have not only Antonio Brown, but rising star Juju Smith-Shuster at wide receiver, but the Steelers' wideouts are still not any better than the Browns'.
Josh Gordon was THE BEST wide receiver in the NFL in his one 14-game season, with three different guys named Joe at quarterback, and against constant double-coverage.
And have you seen that guy lately? He's been eatin' his spinach! He's all rocked up--must be over 230 lbs!
And let's ask Mayfield and Taylor who they'd prefer: Smith-Shuster or Landry. They'd say Landry, because they can count on him! Big plays are great, but getting sacked or throwing the ball away sucks--every quarterback wants insurance, and that's Landry (well, and Duke Johnson, of course).
- Between Callaway, Coleman, Ratley and (yes) Higgins and Louis, two should emerge as a starter and primary backup. My early dart-throw is Callaway, but Coleman might rise to the challenge and hold on (unless Dorsey can get a good draft pick for him).
That's suddenly excellent depth; better than the Steelers have.
Summing up the comparison of the Steelers and Browns offenses, if everybody is healthy, the Steelers are still better, but not by much. If people start getting hurt, the Browns depth at every single position is superior.
More context: The Haley thing really matters. It was Todd Haley who turned Laveon Bell into the hybrid player he is, and who mixed in zone-blocking once he saw how Bell could exploit it as a runner.
I haven't checked out the new Steelers OC yet, but we can hope he is somebody like Hue Palmer, and that he will do to Bell what Hue did to Crowell.
Even if the new guy is adaptable and flexible, it's doubtful that he can match Haley. He should no doubt keep using most of what Haley installed, but he'll inevittably want to tweak and tinker. We'll see how that goes.
On the other side of that, if you're saying that Haley and Jackson run similar offenses, please stop it.
Unlike Hue (who fooled us all), Todd Haley really does adapt his offense to the talent he has.
The one thing which seems common to most of Haley's offenses is the Swiss Army Knife running back. He loves screwing up defenses by putting running backs in the slot or even wide. Running backs who can't catch need not apply.
As for the rest of it, Haley has used zone and man-blocking, West Coast and vertical passing (Air Coryall stuff, however; still timing)...whatever works.
Antonio Brown is a West Coast receiver. Those are all timing routes. Didn't know that, did you? Hopefully the new guy will send him deep chasing back-shoulder throws (too much to hope for).
All I'm saying is that even if Todd Haley's loss doesn't hurt the Steelers, his hiring by the Browns will help the Browns offense a lot.
Comparing these two defenses is even more interesting.
The Steelers stick with a 3-4 base, whereas Gregg Williams runs a 4-3, so comparing the front sevens gets complicated.
3-4 defensive ends are really just taller defensive tackles, and they often line up inside the offensive tackles and are inside players. Nose tackles don't have to be very athletic. Outside linebackers between the two schemes are drasticly different...
I'll just toss all the players into two blenders and compare the smoothies:
The Steelers have TJ Watt, who is a beast like his brother JJ, but plays outside linebacker. This guy is special, because he's pretty good in coverage, as well as being a great edge-rusher. Watt could actually play OLB in a 4-3.
That's about it for them, as far as star-power is concerned.
The Browns have Myles Garrett. Let's call that a draw. But (ask Garrett himself), Ogbah is really being sold short here; he's great vs the run, and an excellent passrusher in his own right.
Shobert made the Pro Bowl as an alternate in his first season as a starter at MLB. His stats were pretty good, but lost in here is the fact that this second year player was Gregg's "field general", and called all the defenses.
Dorsey has just loaded up on passrushing defensive ends who can play inside, and he already had three athletic, penetrating real defensive tackles (and Jamie Meder).
As I noted, Nate Orchard appears to have been moved back to strongside linebacker again. He just might make the team because of it; he can actually play that position and rush the quarterback from there.
This, in combination with drafting Genard Avery in the fifth round, offers strong clues to Gregg Williams' intentions.
Jamie Collins is also a very big guy, so Gregg wants big, physical, almost 3-4 SAMs. Everybody expects Avery to start out at MLB, but he's more likely a strong side guy (at least as much).
And Avery ices the cake: The Browns front seven is better than the Steelers front seven. It's now extremely deep, and other teams will scramble to sign the players John Dorsey will have to cut.
Because of Gregg Williams' unique defense, comparing the respective secondaries is complicated as well.
But no need to dig too deep here: The Browns secondary is better. The cornerbacks (including nickel) are better, the strong safeties are better two-deep, and I'll bet Damarious Randall will be a pretty good free safety.
It's kind of obvious: Joe Haden is expected to be the Steelers number one cornerback, and Denzel Ward is here now. Derrick Kindred didn't disappear, and Peppers gets to play where he's more comfortable.
Summing up the defensive comparisons, the Browns are better than the Steelers...period.
What about special teams? Last season, the Browns special teams kinda sucked.
But now, the Browns have both Antonio Callaway and Evan Berry as returners. Tank Carder is back, Genard Avery is another addition, and John Dorsey has added a lot of speed to the roster in general.
Shane Gonzalez and Britton Colquitt should be fine as the kicker and punter. For the hell of it, I'll say the Steelers' special teams are a little better.
Coaching? Don't even try telling me that Dorsey and Williams are outgunned here.
If you think with your brain, you can now see that it is possible that the 1-31 Browns can beat the Steelers.
Dorsey inheritted an extremely young team, and Joe Thomas's retirement didn't help any.
But a bunch of those young players are entering their second and third seasons, and know which end is up. Dorsey did a great job of acquiring young, proven veterans to provide leadership and examples.
The 2017 Browns, despite Kizer and Hue Fisher, had the Steelers beat twice last season, but choked on it.
This (upgraded) Browns team won't choke. They won't be intimidated, by the Steelers or any other team they face.
Most of you don't really get this yet: Tyrod Taylor isn't DeShone Kizer (and niether is Mayfield). Todd Haley is not Hue Fisher. This team is more experienced than the 2017 team, and just added a lot more talent than the Steelers did.
The Browns might not win game one (got to remember the referees right?) But they are loaded for bear.
Every season, people talk about "tough schedules" etc., and every year a few teams surprise everybody.
That's because the best teams get older, and lose talent to the cap and their draft positions. The younger teams mature.
The Browns have a tough schedule based on yesterday's news.
Well, you shouldn't be surprised by any Browns win in 2018. They are one of the most talented and best-coached teams in the NFL.
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