Dan Labbe wrote a couple good articles on the second OTA which was open to the media (just click this and keep scrolling.)
Face it: I'm reaching (and so is Dan) because there's not much to write about, and it's just OTAs. They don't mean that much. You look for positive flashes, or impressive rookies, but you can't take anything to the bank.
Nobody should be surprised that Denzel Ward looks really good. He's a man-corner, and that's not nearly as complicated as some people seem to think. He's doing exactly what he did at Ohio State.
He did break up a fade to Stretch Gordon, who is four inches taller and 30 lbs bigger, and that's impressive.
This can happen more often than not vs skyscrapers, as it did with Shorty Haden in his prime, but there's an asterisk:
If Tyrod had thrown a perfect pass, Ward couldn't have prevented the reception.
It's just that most quarterbacks, including even some in the top five, can't consistently hit that dime that deep. I mean, your pinky could twitch, and cause the ball to drop two feet shorter than you intend.
Tyrod Taylor has decent touch and accuracy, but is by no means a sharpshooter. He represents the vast majority of quarterbacks in a league that seems to prioritize arm-strength over accuracy.
Ward will win many of these battles, because perfect placement (deep/vertical) is the exception, and not the rule.
Called digression: Popgun Sipe to Stretch Logan was different: Sam Rutigliano allowed Brian Sipe to throw a "punt" (very high, arcing pass) in the general direction of basketball star Dave Logan, and Logan either drew a flag or out-jumped however many defensive backs flocked around him.
No kidding, youngsters: I called it a punt because it had similar hang-time. Vs many defenses, Haley could do that with Njoku or Gordon, even today.
End of digression: On the flip side, Denzel Wards don't grow on trees, and even with so-so quarterback accuracy, Gordon will catch the majority of these fades.
Ward (and company) vs Gordon and Landry is just great training; you can't find better sparring partners to tune up with:
Landry and Gordon are each elite players, but very different from eachother. These cornerbacks have to try to stifle both, and will be prepared for both these types.
And so far, so good (per Dan): The defense in general "won" this public session. Dan says none of the quarterbacks did much, and there were a bunch of breakups and a couple interceptions...
Demarius Randall picked one off on a deflection off Landry's hands. Don't expect that to happen much, because Landry has exceptional hands (and coordination).
I haven't seen the play, but guess that Tyrod was a little "off", and Jarvis didn't quite "salvage" it. More reps will help with this, but on the other side:
Randall was in position to make this play. That means he diagnosed the pass, and was moving to stop Landry (or blow him up). A lot of free safeties get easy picks this way, especially when quarterbacks have to rush their throws, or throw off-balance.
The very best free safeties see the ball in the air, and instantly know how to play it. If the receiver can catch it in-stride, he goes for the pick or big hit. If he'll have to dive or break stride, he slows down a little, since the receiver is a sitting duck anyway.
It's too early to compare Demarius Randall to Ed Reed just yet, but he's certainly a big upgrade over the 2017 Jabrill Peppers at free safety (and an upgrade is an upgrade).
But Peppers is more than a "strong safety". It amazes me that everybody but me seems to have forgotten Gregg Williams' patented safety/linebacker hybrid player already, especially since Rodney Kindredfield filled that role (admirably) in 2017...
And especially since, for Harbaugh in his last college season, Peppers was mainly a weakside linebacker! Jabrill Peppers was a Gregg Williams pick (trust me).
Despite how well Kindred performed as the safetybacker in 2017, Peppers does look like an upgrade. He's quicker and faster, and a little better in coverage; just a better athlete.
Everybody assumes that the defensive line has been upgraded, based exclusively on Dorsey vs Sashi Brown. That's questionable. The young players will of course improve, but that's built in.
Incredibly, some pundits still hallucinate a "lack of depth" at linebacker, but the addition of one player: Denard Avery--has upgraded linebacker depth dramatically (not that this was neccessary), along with team speed.
But the secondary? This was an overhaul, man! Upgrades across the board (except at nickel, but Boddy-Calhoun is only entering his third season, so he might be even better (if that's possible).
And they're sparring with Gordon and Landry? Oh, just look tf out for this crew in 2018! They were in the bottom five in 2017, but could be in the top five this season!
Competition is good. Competition works. (Hey, I bet I could have said that about "greed" too! Gotta write that down)...
Wednesday, May 30, 2018
Tuesday, May 29, 2018
Browns Safeties, RBs, Duke Johnson, Chubb vs Hyde
Dan Justik wrote a great article on the Browns' safeties. I have only one correction to make:
Briean Boddy-Calhoun is working at free safety in order to further refine his skills at that position. He might have been the best nickel corner in the NFL last season, and is absolutely not fighting for a roster spot.
Dan erred on this, but was correct about Calhoun being a good coverage safety, and quite possibly Randall's top backup.
He will be the primary nickel corner.
I have zero problems with Jarvis Landry saying that he believes he is the best wide receiver in the NFL. I think if you ask Josh Gordon what he thinks about that statement, he'd grin and say "Well he might be second-best."
Jarvis points to his blocking, ability to play outside and in the backfield, and his "playmaking ability" (ok nine touchdowns in 2017 cut down on the eye-rolls and snorts please).
More interesting is Tyrod Taylor asserting that Landry has the biggest catch radius of any receiver he's ever worked with.
W...w...what? Landry is 5'11"!!!
But Tyrod is a quarterback, and not an analyst. PFF or Numberfire would blow him out of the water here, but he simply mispoke:
Tyrod should have said "if I get it anywhere near him, he catches it." That's what he meant.
I've been forced to re-examine Landry and his draft profiles.
His unimpressive combine numbers don't reflect his performance when it counts.
Landry excels at adjusting to the ball in the air. He's not a great athlete, but he has great instincts, and thinks fast. He decieves defensive backs and establishes leverage early. When the ball is in the air, he accidentally/on purpose "bumps" them (he's 208 lbs, ya know).
Jarvis Landry isn't a physical "specimen", but might be a mental "specimen".
As you know, I didn't like the trade which brought Jarvis Landry here, but what Tyrod Taylor said about him makes me think that John Dorsey just might be better at this than I am.
Now, what about Duke? I love the guy, but he's made himself really expensive, and Landry just all but eliminated his role as a slot/wide receiver.
Carlos Hyde is actually an effective pass-catcher out of the backfield (earlier post), and so is Nick Chubb (believe it or not see earlier post), so Duke's role here is greatly diminished, and the Browns are unlikely to be the highest bidder for him.
That's even before bringing up the dirt-cheap Matthew Dayes, who is damn near a Duke clone.
Duke Johnson is probably a GMF. Business is business, too bad yadda yadda deal with it.
You don't get this stuff anywhere else, do you? Everybody else is putting Dayes on the bubble, right?
Dorsey is almost certainly trying to trade Duke right now, and he might get good value for him. Duke is a swiss army knife. Everybody wants him. Many teams would be okay with paying him over 5 mil/year and using him a lot.
But those teams don't have Hyde, Chubb, Dayes, and Landry.
Another amatuer article assumed that Carlos Hyde would be the workhorse here, and Chubb a situational player and backup.
Unlikely. Hyde is an above average running back, but Chubb is better than that. I personally screwed up in saying he needed work as a receiver, but admit now that I was fulla beans.
Hyde has no edge on Nick Chubb, and Chubb is just plain better than Hyde.
Briean Boddy-Calhoun is working at free safety in order to further refine his skills at that position. He might have been the best nickel corner in the NFL last season, and is absolutely not fighting for a roster spot.
Dan erred on this, but was correct about Calhoun being a good coverage safety, and quite possibly Randall's top backup.
He will be the primary nickel corner.
I have zero problems with Jarvis Landry saying that he believes he is the best wide receiver in the NFL. I think if you ask Josh Gordon what he thinks about that statement, he'd grin and say "Well he might be second-best."
Jarvis points to his blocking, ability to play outside and in the backfield, and his "playmaking ability" (ok nine touchdowns in 2017 cut down on the eye-rolls and snorts please).
More interesting is Tyrod Taylor asserting that Landry has the biggest catch radius of any receiver he's ever worked with.
W...w...what? Landry is 5'11"!!!
But Tyrod is a quarterback, and not an analyst. PFF or Numberfire would blow him out of the water here, but he simply mispoke:
Tyrod should have said "if I get it anywhere near him, he catches it." That's what he meant.
I've been forced to re-examine Landry and his draft profiles.
His unimpressive combine numbers don't reflect his performance when it counts.
Landry excels at adjusting to the ball in the air. He's not a great athlete, but he has great instincts, and thinks fast. He decieves defensive backs and establishes leverage early. When the ball is in the air, he accidentally/on purpose "bumps" them (he's 208 lbs, ya know).
Jarvis Landry isn't a physical "specimen", but might be a mental "specimen".
As you know, I didn't like the trade which brought Jarvis Landry here, but what Tyrod Taylor said about him makes me think that John Dorsey just might be better at this than I am.
Now, what about Duke? I love the guy, but he's made himself really expensive, and Landry just all but eliminated his role as a slot/wide receiver.
Carlos Hyde is actually an effective pass-catcher out of the backfield (earlier post), and so is Nick Chubb (believe it or not see earlier post), so Duke's role here is greatly diminished, and the Browns are unlikely to be the highest bidder for him.
That's even before bringing up the dirt-cheap Matthew Dayes, who is damn near a Duke clone.
Duke Johnson is probably a GMF. Business is business, too bad yadda yadda deal with it.
You don't get this stuff anywhere else, do you? Everybody else is putting Dayes on the bubble, right?
Dorsey is almost certainly trying to trade Duke right now, and he might get good value for him. Duke is a swiss army knife. Everybody wants him. Many teams would be okay with paying him over 5 mil/year and using him a lot.
But those teams don't have Hyde, Chubb, Dayes, and Landry.
Another amatuer article assumed that Carlos Hyde would be the workhorse here, and Chubb a situational player and backup.
Unlikely. Hyde is an above average running back, but Chubb is better than that. I personally screwed up in saying he needed work as a receiver, but admit now that I was fulla beans.
Hyde has no edge on Nick Chubb, and Chubb is just plain better than Hyde.
Monday, May 28, 2018
Big Ben: Myles Garrett is the Tip of the Ice Berg.
Randy Gurzi wrote a nice article on Damarius Randall at free safety, which was quite reassuring:
In his final college season (at free safety) Randall had 106 tackles. That's a ton o take-downs, and strongly indicates that he rarely blew any.
One old scouting report I read said he sometimes took "poor angles" when tracking down ball carriers in the open field, but 106 tackles puts the lie to that. That's over nine tackles per-game; comparable to the best middle linebackers!
It makes even more sense now that Gregg Williams had him earmarked for free safety from the start.
Randall was a "pretty good" cornerback for the Packers, in every type of coverage, but this was never his best position.
Still, playing cornerback obviously forced him to learn and refine skills he otherwise wouldn't have, giving him an edge over most other safeties in some situations (especially when a quarterback is able to "buy time" and receivers are coming back or going postal).
Randall has another edge, as well: He has actually covered many of the receivers he will face, up close and personal. He can anticipate them on a more instinctive/intuitive level than free safeties who only have "big picture" and game-film experience with them.
But back to all those tackles he made in his last college season:
To redundate, Gregg Williams uses his "Angel" formation on less than one out of three downs, and the free safety otherwise plays a more conventional role.
When he does use it, it discourages deep patterns and throws, as the quarterback and receivers see that human road-block roaming around back there.
But the Angel has to read the play quickly, and will usually be drifting forward, towards the line of scrimmage, less than a second after the snap.
His bird's eye view lets him see everything every offensive player is doing, and read the play.
He is expected to make a correct decision, and commit to it. That might be anticipating a zone cut-back and blowing it up, or which receiver is the slant-pass target and blowing him up, or whatever.
The Angel safety is absolutely not passive.
Jabrill Peppers was tried there because he has the speed and muscle for it, and is actually a very smart guy.
It didn't work out, but like Randall, he should benefit from that experience, as he was trying to read and react to the "big picture", instead of playing linebacker/strong safety, like he more or less did for Harbaugh in college.
He'll have a deeper understanding of what opposing offenses are trying to pull on his defense, and him in particular. Maybe for the first time, he can add "turnovers" to his resume.
Critics of some of these Browns' players are overboard. No NFL roster in history has yet fielded eleven Pro Bowl players. The best defenses in history rarely sent more than three guys to the Pro Bowl.
So get real.
The current Browns defense includes Pro Bowl alternate Joe Schobert, Myles Garrett, former Pro Bowler Jamie Collins, and instacontender Denzel Ward.
I now suggest that Briean Boddy-Calhoun, Ogunjobi, Randall, and Peppers have shots at the Pro Bowl as well.
Peppers returns to his natural position, and if he can get a couple picks and force a couple fumbles, he could sneak in there.
Calhoun is probably THE best nickel back in the NFL, and should have made it last season. He's played safety (well), too.
Ogunjobi was impressive as a rookie, and will get a lot more snaps in his second season. He gets sacks and blows things up. With both Garrett and Ogbah flanking him, offenses will have to try blocking him with one guy--and it won't work.
Gurzi says "don't forget about Jamie Collins", and points out that in 15 games in 2016, he averaged more than ten tackles per game.
That's impressive for a middle linebacker, but for a SAM it's rediculous. Collins got dented and dinged in 2017, then kayoed with an ACL (I think), but Randy expects him to be a badass again upon his healthy return.
In the fifth round, Dorsey drafted Genard Avery. Avery slid that far only because he's a shade over 6' tall.
But he's stronger, quicker, and faster than every other linebacker on this roster (and he's way up there in the NFL too).
Pro Day and Combine numbers aside, his production in college (as mainly a middle linebacker) was outstanding as well (no "workout warrior" here!)
People ass ume he's a middle linebacker here, but that's less than half-right. Genard Avery can play any 4-3 or 3-4 linebacker position. (I'll explain the "3-4" assertion if challenged, but the Cliff Notes version is "Harrison, James").
The middle linebacker kneejerk conclusion-leap is especially funny to me, because Gregg Williams' MIKE is his field general:
He sets up the defense and calls the plays as the offense breaks the huddle and deploys. Unless Avery the rookie can do that as well as Joe Schobert does, that battle won't even happen.
Pat Kirwan actually sees Avery as a weakside linebacker! He's right, too.
In 2018, Avery will of course play special teams, but he will also compete at every linebacker slot, and no doubt at the very least become the primary backup at at least one.
Redundancy alert: Avery will probably also be a situational passrusher. When I wrote about this before, it was more garbage in-garbage out based on dumbass scouting reports: Avery can cover, so Gregg could set him up on the edge and not "send" him!
It's amazing to me that you people don't know how good Genard Avery is.
Shifting to offense, Terry Pluto is overly trepidatious (yes I invented that word) for me on the Browns wide receivers.
Terry has whatifitis (yeah made that one up too):
He stipulates Jarvis Landry the clutch/possession guy (yay!), but then talks about the risks of Gordon, Callaway, and Coleman (the big-play guys).
What are the odds that Gordon and Callaway fall off the wagon, and Coleman craps out too?
Terry makes a great point on the (PFF) "drop" rate of the Browns receivers last year, but Gordon was fine, Coleman was bad but not that bad, Higgins was okay, and Louis...nevermind.
I love and respect Terry Pluto, but sometimes he tries too hard to be "objective". He probably majored in urinalism in college, and was able to transcend the brainwashing...
Anyway, in the real world, Josh Gordon is unlikely to fall off the wagon now. Callaway's issues were only superficially "drug"- related, Gordon is his "been there done that" sponsor, and Coleman just broke his hand twice and needs to grow up.
Terry is overboard here:
Look at the tools Tyrod Taylor got into the playoffs with last season. Delete Gordon, Callaway, and Coleman, and he's still got better weapons (and protection, and defense)!
But I'm being unfair to Terry Pluto here: He never said "the sky is falling"; just expressed some legit concerns he had about the wide receivers.
Frankly, the "drop rate" stats he cited shocked me.
Still, the unprepared rookie DeShone Kizer irrefutably sucked, and Tyrod Taylor is irrefutably better, and Todd Haley is irrefutably better than Hue Palmer.
Njoku (and DeValve) are better than Charles Clay, these combined running backs are better than LeShaun McCoy, and this offensive line will be better than Tyrod's in 2017 as well.
Buffalo's defense wasn't bad in 2017, but won't compare to the one Gregg Williams will field in 2018, either.
And check this out: Dorsey signed a 31-year old Darren Fells, who might just be the best in-line blocking tight end in the NFL.
He signed (and overpaid) Jarvis Landry, who is a great blocker. Instead of drafting the most promising left tackle, he drafted Austin Corbett.
In Nick Chubb, he took THE most physical, hard-nosed running back in this draft class.
Carlos Hyde is similar to Chubb, and Hubbard is a run-blocker first too. If you can't add all this up, I can't help you (oh no wait! I can!)
Captain Obvious says that Todd Haley intends to run the ball a LOT.
At first glance, you can't see it. Landry spells 3-wide, and Njoku/DeValve aren't in-line blockers, and that looks like four-wide.
No problem! Haley will force nickel and dime defenses onto the field, spread them out, and render stacked boxes impossible.
The defenses will be faster but lighter, and his running backs will have holes, and can run little people over.
He'll zone-block a lot. This will give the new left tackle an edge when it's a pass, and set up read-options, run-pass options, rollouts etc perfectly.
Haley will convince Hue Fisher not to show this in preseason, which works out fine, since Mayfield needs work on his under-center skills anyway, and Taylor still needs work on that too.
Ideally, Haley will show Hue Fisher (power/man inside runs etc) through preseason.
This should "look right", since this offense has the talent to make it work.
...then in game one vs the Steelers, he springs his trap.
The Steelers coaches might even see it coming, but can't be certain of it; they'll still have to prepare for the cave-man offense they've seen in preseason, since that's very physical and "in your face".
And it's also hard to prepare for zone blocking anyway, beyond one-gapping four guys and...
Well it's just not easy, ok? Zone runs look the same to defenders as pass-blocking, so...
Cliff Notes: If the Browns play their preseason right, they could upset the Steelers in game one.
Hue Palmer couldn't do this, but Todd Haley can.
In his final college season (at free safety) Randall had 106 tackles. That's a ton o take-downs, and strongly indicates that he rarely blew any.
One old scouting report I read said he sometimes took "poor angles" when tracking down ball carriers in the open field, but 106 tackles puts the lie to that. That's over nine tackles per-game; comparable to the best middle linebackers!
It makes even more sense now that Gregg Williams had him earmarked for free safety from the start.
Randall was a "pretty good" cornerback for the Packers, in every type of coverage, but this was never his best position.
Still, playing cornerback obviously forced him to learn and refine skills he otherwise wouldn't have, giving him an edge over most other safeties in some situations (especially when a quarterback is able to "buy time" and receivers are coming back or going postal).
Randall has another edge, as well: He has actually covered many of the receivers he will face, up close and personal. He can anticipate them on a more instinctive/intuitive level than free safeties who only have "big picture" and game-film experience with them.
But back to all those tackles he made in his last college season:
To redundate, Gregg Williams uses his "Angel" formation on less than one out of three downs, and the free safety otherwise plays a more conventional role.
When he does use it, it discourages deep patterns and throws, as the quarterback and receivers see that human road-block roaming around back there.
But the Angel has to read the play quickly, and will usually be drifting forward, towards the line of scrimmage, less than a second after the snap.
His bird's eye view lets him see everything every offensive player is doing, and read the play.
He is expected to make a correct decision, and commit to it. That might be anticipating a zone cut-back and blowing it up, or which receiver is the slant-pass target and blowing him up, or whatever.
The Angel safety is absolutely not passive.
Jabrill Peppers was tried there because he has the speed and muscle for it, and is actually a very smart guy.
It didn't work out, but like Randall, he should benefit from that experience, as he was trying to read and react to the "big picture", instead of playing linebacker/strong safety, like he more or less did for Harbaugh in college.
He'll have a deeper understanding of what opposing offenses are trying to pull on his defense, and him in particular. Maybe for the first time, he can add "turnovers" to his resume.
Critics of some of these Browns' players are overboard. No NFL roster in history has yet fielded eleven Pro Bowl players. The best defenses in history rarely sent more than three guys to the Pro Bowl.
So get real.
The current Browns defense includes Pro Bowl alternate Joe Schobert, Myles Garrett, former Pro Bowler Jamie Collins, and instacontender Denzel Ward.
I now suggest that Briean Boddy-Calhoun, Ogunjobi, Randall, and Peppers have shots at the Pro Bowl as well.
Peppers returns to his natural position, and if he can get a couple picks and force a couple fumbles, he could sneak in there.
Calhoun is probably THE best nickel back in the NFL, and should have made it last season. He's played safety (well), too.
Ogunjobi was impressive as a rookie, and will get a lot more snaps in his second season. He gets sacks and blows things up. With both Garrett and Ogbah flanking him, offenses will have to try blocking him with one guy--and it won't work.
Gurzi says "don't forget about Jamie Collins", and points out that in 15 games in 2016, he averaged more than ten tackles per game.
That's impressive for a middle linebacker, but for a SAM it's rediculous. Collins got dented and dinged in 2017, then kayoed with an ACL (I think), but Randy expects him to be a badass again upon his healthy return.
In the fifth round, Dorsey drafted Genard Avery. Avery slid that far only because he's a shade over 6' tall.
But he's stronger, quicker, and faster than every other linebacker on this roster (and he's way up there in the NFL too).
Pro Day and Combine numbers aside, his production in college (as mainly a middle linebacker) was outstanding as well (no "workout warrior" here!)
People ass ume he's a middle linebacker here, but that's less than half-right. Genard Avery can play any 4-3 or 3-4 linebacker position. (I'll explain the "3-4" assertion if challenged, but the Cliff Notes version is "Harrison, James").
The middle linebacker kneejerk conclusion-leap is especially funny to me, because Gregg Williams' MIKE is his field general:
He sets up the defense and calls the plays as the offense breaks the huddle and deploys. Unless Avery the rookie can do that as well as Joe Schobert does, that battle won't even happen.
Pat Kirwan actually sees Avery as a weakside linebacker! He's right, too.
In 2018, Avery will of course play special teams, but he will also compete at every linebacker slot, and no doubt at the very least become the primary backup at at least one.
Redundancy alert: Avery will probably also be a situational passrusher. When I wrote about this before, it was more garbage in-garbage out based on dumbass scouting reports: Avery can cover, so Gregg could set him up on the edge and not "send" him!
It's amazing to me that you people don't know how good Genard Avery is.
Shifting to offense, Terry Pluto is overly trepidatious (yes I invented that word) for me on the Browns wide receivers.
Terry has whatifitis (yeah made that one up too):
He stipulates Jarvis Landry the clutch/possession guy (yay!), but then talks about the risks of Gordon, Callaway, and Coleman (the big-play guys).
What are the odds that Gordon and Callaway fall off the wagon, and Coleman craps out too?
Terry makes a great point on the (PFF) "drop" rate of the Browns receivers last year, but Gordon was fine, Coleman was bad but not that bad, Higgins was okay, and Louis...nevermind.
I love and respect Terry Pluto, but sometimes he tries too hard to be "objective". He probably majored in urinalism in college, and was able to transcend the brainwashing...
Anyway, in the real world, Josh Gordon is unlikely to fall off the wagon now. Callaway's issues were only superficially "drug"- related, Gordon is his "been there done that" sponsor, and Coleman just broke his hand twice and needs to grow up.
Terry is overboard here:
Look at the tools Tyrod Taylor got into the playoffs with last season. Delete Gordon, Callaway, and Coleman, and he's still got better weapons (and protection, and defense)!
But I'm being unfair to Terry Pluto here: He never said "the sky is falling"; just expressed some legit concerns he had about the wide receivers.
Frankly, the "drop rate" stats he cited shocked me.
Still, the unprepared rookie DeShone Kizer irrefutably sucked, and Tyrod Taylor is irrefutably better, and Todd Haley is irrefutably better than Hue Palmer.
Njoku (and DeValve) are better than Charles Clay, these combined running backs are better than LeShaun McCoy, and this offensive line will be better than Tyrod's in 2017 as well.
Buffalo's defense wasn't bad in 2017, but won't compare to the one Gregg Williams will field in 2018, either.
And check this out: Dorsey signed a 31-year old Darren Fells, who might just be the best in-line blocking tight end in the NFL.
He signed (and overpaid) Jarvis Landry, who is a great blocker. Instead of drafting the most promising left tackle, he drafted Austin Corbett.
In Nick Chubb, he took THE most physical, hard-nosed running back in this draft class.
Carlos Hyde is similar to Chubb, and Hubbard is a run-blocker first too. If you can't add all this up, I can't help you (oh no wait! I can!)
Captain Obvious says that Todd Haley intends to run the ball a LOT.
At first glance, you can't see it. Landry spells 3-wide, and Njoku/DeValve aren't in-line blockers, and that looks like four-wide.
No problem! Haley will force nickel and dime defenses onto the field, spread them out, and render stacked boxes impossible.
The defenses will be faster but lighter, and his running backs will have holes, and can run little people over.
He'll zone-block a lot. This will give the new left tackle an edge when it's a pass, and set up read-options, run-pass options, rollouts etc perfectly.
Haley will convince Hue Fisher not to show this in preseason, which works out fine, since Mayfield needs work on his under-center skills anyway, and Taylor still needs work on that too.
Ideally, Haley will show Hue Fisher (power/man inside runs etc) through preseason.
This should "look right", since this offense has the talent to make it work.
...then in game one vs the Steelers, he springs his trap.
The Steelers coaches might even see it coming, but can't be certain of it; they'll still have to prepare for the cave-man offense they've seen in preseason, since that's very physical and "in your face".
And it's also hard to prepare for zone blocking anyway, beyond one-gapping four guys and...
Well it's just not easy, ok? Zone runs look the same to defenders as pass-blocking, so...
Cliff Notes: If the Browns play their preseason right, they could upset the Steelers in game one.
Hue Palmer couldn't do this, but Todd Haley can.
Tuesday, May 22, 2018
John Dorsey's Crucible, Theisman's Two Cents, and the Browns
- 1: It's no surprise that John Dorsey offered his 35th overall pick to the Eagles for Nick Foles. That would not have been too much to pay for that quarterback.
They might even have done with Foles what they're doing with Tyrod: Rent him for one season (trust me: Dorsey was still going to draft a quarterback at one or four.)
Foles himself opposed the deal. Let's not take that personally guys. I happen to know that Nick Foles is kind of an oddball in that he's not a moneygrubbing hyper-competitive guy like almost every other quarterback. He's actually kinda like Josh McCown.
He's super-smart, too, and might have (oh heaven forfend) been introspective enough to doubt that he could match his amazing playoff performance with any new team, and forsaw his stock dropping on the eve of a new contract. Remaining the backup who won the Superbowl is probably his best long-term strategy.
2: Jarvis Landry was voted the 52nd best player in the NFL by his PEERS. But what do they know?
3: SHORTY (Joe Theisman) weighed in on Baker Mayfield and the Browns on NFL Radio:
Theisman said the game today is much different than it was when he played. When Theisman played, the shotgun was almost non-existant.
Joe thinks the modern NFL is much freindlier to vertically-challenged quarterbacks than it was in his jurassic period.
More specificly, Joe said that Todd Haley would know how to use Mayfield (and Shorty Taylor too).
Joe said that the rookie quarterback from this draft with the best shot to succeed in 2018 would probably be the one on the team with the best defense, and that was (drumroll please...) the Browns.
He also came out and said that Mayfield was simply the best quarterback in this class.
He also thinks that Tyrod Taylor will kick ass with this supporting cast. Joe Theisman agrees with Easy Ed McCaffery that the Browns should win eight games in 2018.
Joe obviously did his homework, because he says the current Browns are loaded with talent, and have exceptional coaching (he mentioned Haley and Williams...not you know who).
4: Oh no! More bulletin-board material! Myles Garrett just never learns! He said he wanted to sack Big Ben again!
Doesn't he know that this insult will inspire the Steelers to shut him down, and Big Ben to make sure not to get sacked?
5: Demarquis Gates is an interesting player with potential, but right now he has a decent shot to make the roster as a special teamer.
6: OTAs will be more competitive in 2018 than they've been in several years. John Dorsey has done an amazing job, at least in that respect.
While Taylor and Mayfield will be trying to out-do eachother, like Coleman and two gifted rookies, and a BUNCH of corners and defensive ends etc., I'm really talking about offense vs defense.
Garrett and Ogbah will acid-test the tackles. Denzel Ward will try to screw the quarterbacks and Josh Gordon (and vice-versa).
There will be some "scuffles", of course, but some fans don't really understand that, more often than not, the two guys who were fighting have it ironed out 5 minutes after they hit the locker room, and often end up best freinds.
They're teammates after all, and each and every real football player knows that competition is important.
Baker Mayfield and Denzel Ward already have a "thing" going on between them. Ward picked him off (I think) in the rookie mini-camp, and Mayfield toasted him (I think but even if it didn't happen bear with me here ok?):
They respect eachother, but they both love the competition. Mayfield might even target Ward's receiver more than he should, simply because he's his biggest pain in the ass!
Ward and Mayfield will make eachother better, and they both know it. They're probably already best freinds, talking trash and pointing at eachother, and (shh) occasionally buying eachother beers...
Going deeper, Ward will no doubt be trying to press/man Josh Gordon, who is 4" taller, 40 lbs heavier, and did what he did to the best corners in the NFL in his record-setting 14-game season with three quarterbacks named Joe.
Mayfield has a huge edge (over Ward) here! As long as he puts the ball in exactly the right place, Ward is screwed.
Ward can't "jostle" that pile of muscle to the sidelines...well I'll save a bunch of this for later, but for now just count on Denzel Ward getting toasted repeatedly by both Mayfield and Taylor (vs Gordon).
But this will force Ward to get even better than he was at Ohio State, obviously.
He'll probably be pals with his nemisis Josh Gordon too.
Many fans don't get that either: These guys aren't politicians. "Real football players" don't hate other players who beat them. They just say "payback's a bitch", and go to work getting even.
Denzel Ward may not ever manage to cover Josh Gordon, but he'll be ready for AJ Green and the rest of the skyscrapers he'll face, and that works out fine.
As I've repeatedly mentioned before, the shorter, slower Joe Haden stifled Green and Megatron, so Ward should be fine...because Josh Gordon is better than both of them.
Competition is good. Competition works. Thank you John Dorsey for building this crucible.
This just in from Lesmerises: Joel Bitonio is smarter than a lot of fans (aint sayin much...)
Saturday, May 19, 2018
Comparing the Browns to the Steelers: Fighting Stockholm Syndrome
Vegas sets the under-over for Browns wins in 2018 at 4 1/2 games. I wish I had a hundred grand to put on the over.
The oddsmakers aren't making any predictions. They're just setting this line right where they think that half the betting public will take the high side, and half the low side.
This line is going to go up, once people start paying more attention and making actual wagers.
The Browns have the talent, and now the coaching, to compete with any team in the NFL, finally including two quarterbacks.
Let's just compare them with one Superbowl contender within their own Division:
Big Ben has to get the nod at quarterback, of course, but it's closer than you think. Context, remember?
1: Big Ben had a good pass-blocking offensive line, and Taylor did not.
2: Ben had really good wide receivers, and Taylor didn't.
3: Todd Haley was coaching Ben, and is now coaching Tyrod.
4: Taylor is a dual threat. His passing stats can't be viewed in a vaccuum.
5: With the Browns, Taylor will have a supporting cast similar to the Steelers': Better than he's had in his carreer.
Laveon Bell also must get the nod at running back, but the Browns have superior depth. The Steelers can't pay Ebineezer's rediculous asking price, and are resolved to lose him in 2019.
They're probably going to run him right into the ground to get the most out of him while he's still a Steeler. This won't matter in game one, but certainly could in game 16.
More context: Draft pick Nick Chubb has traits in common with Bell, and under Todd Haley could become much like him.
But the Browns offensive line is just as good as the Steelers'. The Browns tight ends are much better. (note to Tony Grossi: Darren Fells is possibly the best blocking tight end in the NFL).
The Steelers have not only Antonio Brown, but rising star Juju Smith-Shuster at wide receiver, but the Steelers' wideouts are still not any better than the Browns'.
Josh Gordon was THE BEST wide receiver in the NFL in his one 14-game season, with three different guys named Joe at quarterback, and against constant double-coverage.
And have you seen that guy lately? He's been eatin' his spinach! He's all rocked up--must be over 230 lbs!
And let's ask Mayfield and Taylor who they'd prefer: Smith-Shuster or Landry. They'd say Landry, because they can count on him! Big plays are great, but getting sacked or throwing the ball away sucks--every quarterback wants insurance, and that's Landry (well, and Duke Johnson, of course).
That's suddenly excellent depth; better than the Steelers have.
Summing up the comparison of the Steelers and Browns offenses, if everybody is healthy, the Steelers are still better, but not by much. If people start getting hurt, the Browns depth at every single position is superior.
More context: The Haley thing really matters. It was Todd Haley who turned Laveon Bell into the hybrid player he is, and who mixed in zone-blocking once he saw how Bell could exploit it as a runner.
I haven't checked out the new Steelers OC yet, but we can hope he is somebody like Hue Palmer, and that he will do to Bell what Hue did to Crowell.
Even if the new guy is adaptable and flexible, it's doubtful that he can match Haley. He should no doubt keep using most of what Haley installed, but he'll inevittably want to tweak and tinker. We'll see how that goes.
On the other side of that, if you're saying that Haley and Jackson run similar offenses, please stop it.
Unlike Hue (who fooled us all), Todd Haley really does adapt his offense to the talent he has.
The one thing which seems common to most of Haley's offenses is the Swiss Army Knife running back. He loves screwing up defenses by putting running backs in the slot or even wide. Running backs who can't catch need not apply.
As for the rest of it, Haley has used zone and man-blocking, West Coast and vertical passing (Air Coryall stuff, however; still timing)...whatever works.
Antonio Brown is a West Coast receiver. Those are all timing routes. Didn't know that, did you? Hopefully the new guy will send him deep chasing back-shoulder throws (too much to hope for).
All I'm saying is that even if Todd Haley's loss doesn't hurt the Steelers, his hiring by the Browns will help the Browns offense a lot.
Comparing these two defenses is even more interesting.
The Steelers stick with a 3-4 base, whereas Gregg Williams runs a 4-3, so comparing the front sevens gets complicated.
3-4 defensive ends are really just taller defensive tackles, and they often line up inside the offensive tackles and are inside players. Nose tackles don't have to be very athletic. Outside linebackers between the two schemes are drasticly different...
I'll just toss all the players into two blenders and compare the smoothies:
The Steelers have TJ Watt, who is a beast like his brother JJ, but plays outside linebacker. This guy is special, because he's pretty good in coverage, as well as being a great edge-rusher. Watt could actually play OLB in a 4-3.
That's about it for them, as far as star-power is concerned.
The Browns have Myles Garrett. Let's call that a draw. But (ask Garrett himself), Ogbah is really being sold short here; he's great vs the run, and an excellent passrusher in his own right.
Shobert made the Pro Bowl as an alternate in his first season as a starter at MLB. His stats were pretty good, but lost in here is the fact that this second year player was Gregg's "field general", and called all the defenses.
Dorsey has just loaded up on passrushing defensive ends who can play inside, and he already had three athletic, penetrating real defensive tackles (and Jamie Meder).
As I noted, Nate Orchard appears to have been moved back to strongside linebacker again. He just might make the team because of it; he can actually play that position and rush the quarterback from there.
This, in combination with drafting Genard Avery in the fifth round, offers strong clues to Gregg Williams' intentions.
Jamie Collins is also a very big guy, so Gregg wants big, physical, almost 3-4 SAMs. Everybody expects Avery to start out at MLB, but he's more likely a strong side guy (at least as much).
And Avery ices the cake: The Browns front seven is better than the Steelers front seven. It's now extremely deep, and other teams will scramble to sign the players John Dorsey will have to cut.
Because of Gregg Williams' unique defense, comparing the respective secondaries is complicated as well.
But no need to dig too deep here: The Browns secondary is better. The cornerbacks (including nickel) are better, the strong safeties are better two-deep, and I'll bet Damarious Randall will be a pretty good free safety.
It's kind of obvious: Joe Haden is expected to be the Steelers number one cornerback, and Denzel Ward is here now. Derrick Kindred didn't disappear, and Peppers gets to play where he's more comfortable.
Summing up the defensive comparisons, the Browns are better than the Steelers...period.
What about special teams? Last season, the Browns special teams kinda sucked.
But now, the Browns have both Antonio Callaway and Evan Berry as returners. Tank Carder is back, Genard Avery is another addition, and John Dorsey has added a lot of speed to the roster in general.
Shane Gonzalez and Britton Colquitt should be fine as the kicker and punter. For the hell of it, I'll say the Steelers' special teams are a little better.
Coaching? Don't even try telling me that Dorsey and Williams are outgunned here.
If you think with your brain, you can now see that it is possible that the 1-31 Browns can beat the Steelers.
Dorsey inheritted an extremely young team, and Joe Thomas's retirement didn't help any.
But a bunch of those young players are entering their second and third seasons, and know which end is up. Dorsey did a great job of acquiring young, proven veterans to provide leadership and examples.
The 2017 Browns, despite Kizer and Hue Fisher, had the Steelers beat twice last season, but choked on it.
This (upgraded) Browns team won't choke. They won't be intimidated, by the Steelers or any other team they face.
Most of you don't really get this yet: Tyrod Taylor isn't DeShone Kizer (and niether is Mayfield). Todd Haley is not Hue Fisher. This team is more experienced than the 2017 team, and just added a lot more talent than the Steelers did.
The Browns might not win game one (got to remember the referees right?) But they are loaded for bear.
Every season, people talk about "tough schedules" etc., and every year a few teams surprise everybody.
That's because the best teams get older, and lose talent to the cap and their draft positions. The younger teams mature.
The Browns have a tough schedule based on yesterday's news.
Well, you shouldn't be surprised by any Browns win in 2018. They are one of the most talented and best-coached teams in the NFL.
The oddsmakers aren't making any predictions. They're just setting this line right where they think that half the betting public will take the high side, and half the low side.
This line is going to go up, once people start paying more attention and making actual wagers.
The Browns have the talent, and now the coaching, to compete with any team in the NFL, finally including two quarterbacks.
Let's just compare them with one Superbowl contender within their own Division:
Big Ben has to get the nod at quarterback, of course, but it's closer than you think. Context, remember?
1: Big Ben had a good pass-blocking offensive line, and Taylor did not.
2: Ben had really good wide receivers, and Taylor didn't.
3: Todd Haley was coaching Ben, and is now coaching Tyrod.
4: Taylor is a dual threat. His passing stats can't be viewed in a vaccuum.
5: With the Browns, Taylor will have a supporting cast similar to the Steelers': Better than he's had in his carreer.
Laveon Bell also must get the nod at running back, but the Browns have superior depth. The Steelers can't pay Ebineezer's rediculous asking price, and are resolved to lose him in 2019.
They're probably going to run him right into the ground to get the most out of him while he's still a Steeler. This won't matter in game one, but certainly could in game 16.
More context: Draft pick Nick Chubb has traits in common with Bell, and under Todd Haley could become much like him.
But the Browns offensive line is just as good as the Steelers'. The Browns tight ends are much better. (note to Tony Grossi: Darren Fells is possibly the best blocking tight end in the NFL).
The Steelers have not only Antonio Brown, but rising star Juju Smith-Shuster at wide receiver, but the Steelers' wideouts are still not any better than the Browns'.
Josh Gordon was THE BEST wide receiver in the NFL in his one 14-game season, with three different guys named Joe at quarterback, and against constant double-coverage.
And have you seen that guy lately? He's been eatin' his spinach! He's all rocked up--must be over 230 lbs!
And let's ask Mayfield and Taylor who they'd prefer: Smith-Shuster or Landry. They'd say Landry, because they can count on him! Big plays are great, but getting sacked or throwing the ball away sucks--every quarterback wants insurance, and that's Landry (well, and Duke Johnson, of course).
- Between Callaway, Coleman, Ratley and (yes) Higgins and Louis, two should emerge as a starter and primary backup. My early dart-throw is Callaway, but Coleman might rise to the challenge and hold on (unless Dorsey can get a good draft pick for him).
That's suddenly excellent depth; better than the Steelers have.
Summing up the comparison of the Steelers and Browns offenses, if everybody is healthy, the Steelers are still better, but not by much. If people start getting hurt, the Browns depth at every single position is superior.
More context: The Haley thing really matters. It was Todd Haley who turned Laveon Bell into the hybrid player he is, and who mixed in zone-blocking once he saw how Bell could exploit it as a runner.
I haven't checked out the new Steelers OC yet, but we can hope he is somebody like Hue Palmer, and that he will do to Bell what Hue did to Crowell.
Even if the new guy is adaptable and flexible, it's doubtful that he can match Haley. He should no doubt keep using most of what Haley installed, but he'll inevittably want to tweak and tinker. We'll see how that goes.
On the other side of that, if you're saying that Haley and Jackson run similar offenses, please stop it.
Unlike Hue (who fooled us all), Todd Haley really does adapt his offense to the talent he has.
The one thing which seems common to most of Haley's offenses is the Swiss Army Knife running back. He loves screwing up defenses by putting running backs in the slot or even wide. Running backs who can't catch need not apply.
As for the rest of it, Haley has used zone and man-blocking, West Coast and vertical passing (Air Coryall stuff, however; still timing)...whatever works.
Antonio Brown is a West Coast receiver. Those are all timing routes. Didn't know that, did you? Hopefully the new guy will send him deep chasing back-shoulder throws (too much to hope for).
All I'm saying is that even if Todd Haley's loss doesn't hurt the Steelers, his hiring by the Browns will help the Browns offense a lot.
Comparing these two defenses is even more interesting.
The Steelers stick with a 3-4 base, whereas Gregg Williams runs a 4-3, so comparing the front sevens gets complicated.
3-4 defensive ends are really just taller defensive tackles, and they often line up inside the offensive tackles and are inside players. Nose tackles don't have to be very athletic. Outside linebackers between the two schemes are drasticly different...
I'll just toss all the players into two blenders and compare the smoothies:
The Steelers have TJ Watt, who is a beast like his brother JJ, but plays outside linebacker. This guy is special, because he's pretty good in coverage, as well as being a great edge-rusher. Watt could actually play OLB in a 4-3.
That's about it for them, as far as star-power is concerned.
The Browns have Myles Garrett. Let's call that a draw. But (ask Garrett himself), Ogbah is really being sold short here; he's great vs the run, and an excellent passrusher in his own right.
Shobert made the Pro Bowl as an alternate in his first season as a starter at MLB. His stats were pretty good, but lost in here is the fact that this second year player was Gregg's "field general", and called all the defenses.
Dorsey has just loaded up on passrushing defensive ends who can play inside, and he already had three athletic, penetrating real defensive tackles (and Jamie Meder).
As I noted, Nate Orchard appears to have been moved back to strongside linebacker again. He just might make the team because of it; he can actually play that position and rush the quarterback from there.
This, in combination with drafting Genard Avery in the fifth round, offers strong clues to Gregg Williams' intentions.
Jamie Collins is also a very big guy, so Gregg wants big, physical, almost 3-4 SAMs. Everybody expects Avery to start out at MLB, but he's more likely a strong side guy (at least as much).
And Avery ices the cake: The Browns front seven is better than the Steelers front seven. It's now extremely deep, and other teams will scramble to sign the players John Dorsey will have to cut.
Because of Gregg Williams' unique defense, comparing the respective secondaries is complicated as well.
But no need to dig too deep here: The Browns secondary is better. The cornerbacks (including nickel) are better, the strong safeties are better two-deep, and I'll bet Damarious Randall will be a pretty good free safety.
It's kind of obvious: Joe Haden is expected to be the Steelers number one cornerback, and Denzel Ward is here now. Derrick Kindred didn't disappear, and Peppers gets to play where he's more comfortable.
Summing up the defensive comparisons, the Browns are better than the Steelers...period.
What about special teams? Last season, the Browns special teams kinda sucked.
But now, the Browns have both Antonio Callaway and Evan Berry as returners. Tank Carder is back, Genard Avery is another addition, and John Dorsey has added a lot of speed to the roster in general.
Shane Gonzalez and Britton Colquitt should be fine as the kicker and punter. For the hell of it, I'll say the Steelers' special teams are a little better.
Coaching? Don't even try telling me that Dorsey and Williams are outgunned here.
If you think with your brain, you can now see that it is possible that the 1-31 Browns can beat the Steelers.
Dorsey inheritted an extremely young team, and Joe Thomas's retirement didn't help any.
But a bunch of those young players are entering their second and third seasons, and know which end is up. Dorsey did a great job of acquiring young, proven veterans to provide leadership and examples.
The 2017 Browns, despite Kizer and Hue Fisher, had the Steelers beat twice last season, but choked on it.
This (upgraded) Browns team won't choke. They won't be intimidated, by the Steelers or any other team they face.
Most of you don't really get this yet: Tyrod Taylor isn't DeShone Kizer (and niether is Mayfield). Todd Haley is not Hue Fisher. This team is more experienced than the 2017 team, and just added a lot more talent than the Steelers did.
The Browns might not win game one (got to remember the referees right?) But they are loaded for bear.
Every season, people talk about "tough schedules" etc., and every year a few teams surprise everybody.
That's because the best teams get older, and lose talent to the cap and their draft positions. The younger teams mature.
The Browns have a tough schedule based on yesterday's news.
Well, you shouldn't be surprised by any Browns win in 2018. They are one of the most talented and best-coached teams in the NFL.
Friday, May 18, 2018
Hard Knocks Hysteria and the Cleveland Browns
It's easy to figure out why the Cleveland Browns were selected to be on "Hard Knocks" in 2018. Tons and tons of story-lines, and the classic "turnaround" theme.
Some of the reactions are just plain silly. USA wrote an article about how this is Baker Mayfield's worst nightmare.
I honestly couldn't make myself read the article, but no doubt they expect rabid dawg Browns fans to chant "Ba-ker! Ba-ker!" starting with Tyrod Taylor's first incompletion.
Oh, some will, of course, but I expect the majority of the other fans to just glare at them til they just turn red and shut up.
And like the majority of fans, Mayfield himself is being sold way short. By implication, so is Tyrod Taylor. Tyrod has never had the array of weapons or the protection he will have here in 2018.
So now he will start screwing up and trigger the Mayfield chants?
First, don't fixate on the simpler offense Mayfield ran in college. He's got 48 starts and has a pro's brain. Next to Rosen, he was the most pro-ready quarterback in this class. He's far more advanced than DeShone Kizer was, and being "thrown into the fire" early won't hurt him.
Especially with Todd Haley, and not Hue Palmer, running the offense.
And why does everybody call Sam Darnold the "safer" pick? With all those interceptions and his performances vs elite teams?
Talk about tortured logic, one guy who liked Darnold better isolated what the Georgia defense did to Mayfield in the semi-final as evidence that he's "not ready" for pro defenses.
Mayfield only threw for around 287 yards there. In his 48 starts, that was probably his low point; 287 yards vs the Bulldog.
Darnold has several worse games. I could have zeroed in on what Ohio State did to him, if I were that simple-minded.
Don't get me wrong, as I'm aware that Darnold has a lot less experience, and a ton of potential. I only say that it's just plain bizarre to suggest that Baker Mayfield was a "riskier" pick than Sam Darnold. It's not even close.
Josh Edwards (247 Sports) wrote another nice article quoting unnamed NFL Executives as being critical of Dorsey drafting Denzel Ward rather than Bradley Chubb.
They (if they exist) do make compelling points, just as Josh himself might:
Edge-rushers are rare. Cornerbacks are not. Analytically, edge-rushers rank right behind cornerbacks in importance.
One unnamed exec allegedly said that they should have signed Marcus Peters, a proven shut-down Pro Bowler, in free agency instead.
But Peters was very expensive, and is a head case. It's one thing to roll the dice on kids with checkered pasts, but this clown has been around for awhile, and you can't fix stupid.
I have zero doubt that John Dorsey wanted Bradley Chubb. He would no doubt agree with all the other GMs (and pundits) about this in principal.
But John asked Gregg Williams what he wanted, and Gregg said Denzel Ward.
So all these guys aren't criticizing John Dorsey. They're questioning one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL.
I'll give Gregg the nod here.
Some of the reactions are just plain silly. USA wrote an article about how this is Baker Mayfield's worst nightmare.
I honestly couldn't make myself read the article, but no doubt they expect rabid dawg Browns fans to chant "Ba-ker! Ba-ker!" starting with Tyrod Taylor's first incompletion.
Oh, some will, of course, but I expect the majority of the other fans to just glare at them til they just turn red and shut up.
And like the majority of fans, Mayfield himself is being sold way short. By implication, so is Tyrod Taylor. Tyrod has never had the array of weapons or the protection he will have here in 2018.
So now he will start screwing up and trigger the Mayfield chants?
First, don't fixate on the simpler offense Mayfield ran in college. He's got 48 starts and has a pro's brain. Next to Rosen, he was the most pro-ready quarterback in this class. He's far more advanced than DeShone Kizer was, and being "thrown into the fire" early won't hurt him.
Especially with Todd Haley, and not Hue Palmer, running the offense.
And why does everybody call Sam Darnold the "safer" pick? With all those interceptions and his performances vs elite teams?
Talk about tortured logic, one guy who liked Darnold better isolated what the Georgia defense did to Mayfield in the semi-final as evidence that he's "not ready" for pro defenses.
Mayfield only threw for around 287 yards there. In his 48 starts, that was probably his low point; 287 yards vs the Bulldog.
Darnold has several worse games. I could have zeroed in on what Ohio State did to him, if I were that simple-minded.
Don't get me wrong, as I'm aware that Darnold has a lot less experience, and a ton of potential. I only say that it's just plain bizarre to suggest that Baker Mayfield was a "riskier" pick than Sam Darnold. It's not even close.
Josh Edwards (247 Sports) wrote another nice article quoting unnamed NFL Executives as being critical of Dorsey drafting Denzel Ward rather than Bradley Chubb.
They (if they exist) do make compelling points, just as Josh himself might:
Edge-rushers are rare. Cornerbacks are not. Analytically, edge-rushers rank right behind cornerbacks in importance.
One unnamed exec allegedly said that they should have signed Marcus Peters, a proven shut-down Pro Bowler, in free agency instead.
But Peters was very expensive, and is a head case. It's one thing to roll the dice on kids with checkered pasts, but this clown has been around for awhile, and you can't fix stupid.
I have zero doubt that John Dorsey wanted Bradley Chubb. He would no doubt agree with all the other GMs (and pundits) about this in principal.
But John asked Gregg Williams what he wanted, and Gregg said Denzel Ward.
So all these guys aren't criticizing John Dorsey. They're questioning one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL.
I'll give Gregg the nod here.
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
Gregg Williams: Armed and Dangerous. Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid.
I found a really good article by Josh Edwards of 247 Sports listing nine new players for the Browns who could make immediate impacts. He dug up the most important stats and measurables for each player; it was really informative (thanks Josh!)
...but Josh isn't perfect, so I need to make a few minor corrections. I'll just hit those as I kinda review Josh's really good insights:
Josh lists WR Damion Ratley (see last post) 9th, and even says that he "came on strong" late in his last season, but says he's been "inconsistent".
Ratley has not been inconsistent. He went from being consistently rarely targetted to consistently tearing up opposing defenses later. He consistently averaged over 22 yards per catch throughout.
Josh is correct that he might not make the final roster, however. We'll see.
CB Simeon Thomas is next, and I can't correct Josh anywhere here, except his height gives him an edge. I also didn't realize how fast and "sudden" this tall guy was til I read this article. Thomas has a real shot here!
Josh assumes a lot in re DE Chad Thomas. Niether his measurables nor performance give him any edge whatsoever over Nassib, Orchard, or Chris Smith. In fact, he looks like Chris Smith redux.
Dorsey (Williams) drafted Thomas high for a reason, of course, and Josh no doubt adds some weight to him on that basis, which is logical.
We can skip Mayfield.
Chris is on the money with LB Genard Avery, except he said that there was "very little depth" at linebacker, which is incorrect.
On the current (Ourlads) Browns depth chart, Nate Orchard is listed as a backup SAM, Tank Carder (who was winning the mlb war until he was injured in 2017) is the backup Mike, and Burgess did a nice job at OLB in relief last season. That's good depth!
But he's right about Avery in general: He was the best passrusher from his position in the 2018 draft. He's both bigger and faster than all the guys I just named (faster than Collins too, for that matter).
He should quickly rise up the depth chart at every linebacker position (Pat Kirwan sees him as a weak side linebacker!).
Special teams, check, but (see earlier posts), Gregg Williams is certain to get him on the field on obvious passing downs starting yesterday, as well.
Josh lumps Callaway in with Coleman and Landry behind Gordon in the "guys under 6'" category.
That's way too general. Landry is a slow slot-only guy. Coleman and Callaway can also be outside deep threats. And right now, Callaway is ahead of Coleman.
Josh nails down Austin Corbett perfectly: If he can't nail down left tackle, he'll be tried everywhere else.
My pal Waittilnextyear freaked out when Corbett was drafted in the second round (over more promising left tackle prospects), but I gotta say this:
Corbett not only succeeded Joel Bitonio in college, but is very much like him as a player. He is a "can't miss" prospect, ready to start immediately, and to keep starting til he retires.
John Dorsey might be going for all the marbles in 2018, but he also wants to build a dynasty. Corbett is part of that, even if he doesn't start at left tackle right away. Per my NFL Radio guys, Corbett was worth that pick.
Nick Chubb: Josh isn't among those who steal stuff from my Blog and pretend they thought it up themselves, so he made the mistake of saying he's not much of a receiver.
Josh also describes Chubb as an explosive inside runner, but Chubb is more than that. He has great vision, and the speed to get outside.
Denzel Ward, he lists first, for obvious reasons.
Josh lost focus as this article went along. While he never got stupid, he went from a Master's thesis to shorthand as he ran out of steam.
Denzel Ward was the best pure press/man cornerback in this draft class, and that is why he is here.
This class was loaded with excellent cornerbacks, but Ward was the one who almost always played press/man vs elite competition and came out on top consistently.
I made fun of people who projected Ward over Bradley or Chubb at 4th overall in this Blog. I fell off my chair when they took Ward over Chubb there!
When Waittilnextyear liked the pick, my response was "Ohio State fan".
But I was wrong. Waittilnextyear and Gregg Williams were right. (Read through my posts to track my evolution).
Actually I was also all over Sam Darnold til Waittilnextyear pointed me at Baker Mayfield, too. Up til then, I thought he was too short and unstable.
Anyhoo, Josh Edwards should have said that Denzel Ward will enable Gregg Williams to run the tight coverage schemes he needs for his defense to work.
Departing from Josh, Ward isn't Joe Haden. Joe is two inches shorter, and not nearly as fast. Joe wasn't a pure press/man guy either.
Buzzkill Bill Polian said that expecting a man corner to do well immediately is a "tall order", but he's fulla beans.
Man corners don't have to learn the whole defense. All they have to do is cover one individual.
They can study films on the one or two guys they will be facing, so they can anticipate the dirty tricks etc., but for Ward, it's pretty simple:
He just plain covers the guy in front of him.
Ward will start game one vs Antonio Brown. He is bigger, quicker, and faster. He is not intimidated. AB will make some catches on him, but he won't do much with them.
Put your snorkels on: under TODD HALEY, Antonio Brown worked out of the slot, as well as outside. Haley tried to move him around to avoid the best cornerbacks on the opposing teams, and to (in the slot) give him two-way goes.
Haley had Laveon Bell to play with too. Often when AB was outside, Bell was in the slot. What's a free safety to do?
Antonio Brown is NOT a "deep threat". He breaks inside shallow and intermediate, and makes his money after the catch (kinda like Jerry Rice did).
Denzel Ward can cover Brown. It had a lot to do with why Gregg Williams wanted him (over Bradley Chubb):
Brown runs precise routes, and relies on separation off sudden breaks inside. Big Ben thows perfect passes to catch him in-stride off these breaks, so he's at full speed in the open field, and the cornerback can't catch him before he does major damage.
Well, many defenses don't even try to bump-and-run (press/man) Antonio Brown, because he's too quick and slippery for their cornerbacks. They go off-man, and just try to "contain" him underneath.
We've all seen the results.
Denzel Ward will be in Brown's face. He will force him outside. He will ignore him as a deep threat, and force him to stop to make his break inside. He will then curl in the same direction, and make sure Brown can't turn it upfield, like he does to everybody else. Ward is too fast for him.
...Joe Haden couldn't do this. He wasn't fast enough. Denzel Ward is better than Joe Haden ever was, right now. (no knock on Joe: I love him too! But Ward is just plain better).
Antonio Brown might well be easier for Denzel Ward to deal with than the bigger/taller guys...
But if Haden in his prime could stifle Green and Megatron, why can't Ward?
I wish I was a full subsciber to Swish or PFF. I wish I could tell you for sure that what Gregg Williams said about those 27-29 times he saw Myles Garrett two feet away from sacks means that tighter coverage will open up a can o sack whupass on opposing offenses. If the average time from snap to throw goes up 0.2 seconds, that will happen.
I think so: Williams only cited Garrett, but obviously there are a bunch of other guys who "missed by that much".
See previous posts: Pessure is the surest way to force negative plays and turnovers, but it's useless if the offense can run and throw dink-passes consistently.
Press/man coverage makes a big difference. It became popular in response the Bill Walsh's "West Coast" timing offense.
Gregg Williams (with Dorsey's help) now has the people he needs for tight man coverage. He now has everything he needs (assuming Damarius Randall works out as well as optimisticly projected at free safety).
I anticipate a dominating defense in 2018; easily in the top six. Gregg Williams has done more with less; in fact he might never have had this much to work with in his carreer.
That "L" you've got next to game one on the schedule better be in pencil.
...but Josh isn't perfect, so I need to make a few minor corrections. I'll just hit those as I kinda review Josh's really good insights:
Josh lists WR Damion Ratley (see last post) 9th, and even says that he "came on strong" late in his last season, but says he's been "inconsistent".
Ratley has not been inconsistent. He went from being consistently rarely targetted to consistently tearing up opposing defenses later. He consistently averaged over 22 yards per catch throughout.
Josh is correct that he might not make the final roster, however. We'll see.
CB Simeon Thomas is next, and I can't correct Josh anywhere here, except his height gives him an edge. I also didn't realize how fast and "sudden" this tall guy was til I read this article. Thomas has a real shot here!
Josh assumes a lot in re DE Chad Thomas. Niether his measurables nor performance give him any edge whatsoever over Nassib, Orchard, or Chris Smith. In fact, he looks like Chris Smith redux.
Dorsey (Williams) drafted Thomas high for a reason, of course, and Josh no doubt adds some weight to him on that basis, which is logical.
We can skip Mayfield.
Chris is on the money with LB Genard Avery, except he said that there was "very little depth" at linebacker, which is incorrect.
On the current (Ourlads) Browns depth chart, Nate Orchard is listed as a backup SAM, Tank Carder (who was winning the mlb war until he was injured in 2017) is the backup Mike, and Burgess did a nice job at OLB in relief last season. That's good depth!
But he's right about Avery in general: He was the best passrusher from his position in the 2018 draft. He's both bigger and faster than all the guys I just named (faster than Collins too, for that matter).
He should quickly rise up the depth chart at every linebacker position (Pat Kirwan sees him as a weak side linebacker!).
Special teams, check, but (see earlier posts), Gregg Williams is certain to get him on the field on obvious passing downs starting yesterday, as well.
Josh lumps Callaway in with Coleman and Landry behind Gordon in the "guys under 6'" category.
That's way too general. Landry is a slow slot-only guy. Coleman and Callaway can also be outside deep threats. And right now, Callaway is ahead of Coleman.
Josh nails down Austin Corbett perfectly: If he can't nail down left tackle, he'll be tried everywhere else.
My pal Waittilnextyear freaked out when Corbett was drafted in the second round (over more promising left tackle prospects), but I gotta say this:
Corbett not only succeeded Joel Bitonio in college, but is very much like him as a player. He is a "can't miss" prospect, ready to start immediately, and to keep starting til he retires.
John Dorsey might be going for all the marbles in 2018, but he also wants to build a dynasty. Corbett is part of that, even if he doesn't start at left tackle right away. Per my NFL Radio guys, Corbett was worth that pick.
Nick Chubb: Josh isn't among those who steal stuff from my Blog and pretend they thought it up themselves, so he made the mistake of saying he's not much of a receiver.
Josh also describes Chubb as an explosive inside runner, but Chubb is more than that. He has great vision, and the speed to get outside.
Denzel Ward, he lists first, for obvious reasons.
Josh lost focus as this article went along. While he never got stupid, he went from a Master's thesis to shorthand as he ran out of steam.
Denzel Ward was the best pure press/man cornerback in this draft class, and that is why he is here.
This class was loaded with excellent cornerbacks, but Ward was the one who almost always played press/man vs elite competition and came out on top consistently.
I made fun of people who projected Ward over Bradley or Chubb at 4th overall in this Blog. I fell off my chair when they took Ward over Chubb there!
When Waittilnextyear liked the pick, my response was "Ohio State fan".
But I was wrong. Waittilnextyear and Gregg Williams were right. (Read through my posts to track my evolution).
Actually I was also all over Sam Darnold til Waittilnextyear pointed me at Baker Mayfield, too. Up til then, I thought he was too short and unstable.
Anyhoo, Josh Edwards should have said that Denzel Ward will enable Gregg Williams to run the tight coverage schemes he needs for his defense to work.
Departing from Josh, Ward isn't Joe Haden. Joe is two inches shorter, and not nearly as fast. Joe wasn't a pure press/man guy either.
Buzzkill Bill Polian said that expecting a man corner to do well immediately is a "tall order", but he's fulla beans.
Man corners don't have to learn the whole defense. All they have to do is cover one individual.
They can study films on the one or two guys they will be facing, so they can anticipate the dirty tricks etc., but for Ward, it's pretty simple:
He just plain covers the guy in front of him.
Ward will start game one vs Antonio Brown. He is bigger, quicker, and faster. He is not intimidated. AB will make some catches on him, but he won't do much with them.
Put your snorkels on: under TODD HALEY, Antonio Brown worked out of the slot, as well as outside. Haley tried to move him around to avoid the best cornerbacks on the opposing teams, and to (in the slot) give him two-way goes.
Haley had Laveon Bell to play with too. Often when AB was outside, Bell was in the slot. What's a free safety to do?
Antonio Brown is NOT a "deep threat". He breaks inside shallow and intermediate, and makes his money after the catch (kinda like Jerry Rice did).
Denzel Ward can cover Brown. It had a lot to do with why Gregg Williams wanted him (over Bradley Chubb):
Brown runs precise routes, and relies on separation off sudden breaks inside. Big Ben thows perfect passes to catch him in-stride off these breaks, so he's at full speed in the open field, and the cornerback can't catch him before he does major damage.
Well, many defenses don't even try to bump-and-run (press/man) Antonio Brown, because he's too quick and slippery for their cornerbacks. They go off-man, and just try to "contain" him underneath.
We've all seen the results.
Denzel Ward will be in Brown's face. He will force him outside. He will ignore him as a deep threat, and force him to stop to make his break inside. He will then curl in the same direction, and make sure Brown can't turn it upfield, like he does to everybody else. Ward is too fast for him.
...Joe Haden couldn't do this. He wasn't fast enough. Denzel Ward is better than Joe Haden ever was, right now. (no knock on Joe: I love him too! But Ward is just plain better).
Antonio Brown might well be easier for Denzel Ward to deal with than the bigger/taller guys...
But if Haden in his prime could stifle Green and Megatron, why can't Ward?
I wish I was a full subsciber to Swish or PFF. I wish I could tell you for sure that what Gregg Williams said about those 27-29 times he saw Myles Garrett two feet away from sacks means that tighter coverage will open up a can o sack whupass on opposing offenses. If the average time from snap to throw goes up 0.2 seconds, that will happen.
I think so: Williams only cited Garrett, but obviously there are a bunch of other guys who "missed by that much".
See previous posts: Pessure is the surest way to force negative plays and turnovers, but it's useless if the offense can run and throw dink-passes consistently.
Press/man coverage makes a big difference. It became popular in response the Bill Walsh's "West Coast" timing offense.
Gregg Williams (with Dorsey's help) now has the people he needs for tight man coverage. He now has everything he needs (assuming Damarius Randall works out as well as optimisticly projected at free safety).
I anticipate a dominating defense in 2018; easily in the top six. Gregg Williams has done more with less; in fact he might never have had this much to work with in his carreer.
That "L" you've got next to game one on the schedule better be in pencil.
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