Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Revised Intelligent Analysis of the Browns

I have to correct myself yet again.  I have completely ignored DT Trevon Coley, who was signed to the Browns practice squad as an undrafted free agent last season.  He wasn't even invited to his combine.

The two main reasons for that were his height (under 6'1"), and level of competition.

Halfassed scouting reports aside, Foley projected to any inside defensive tackle in any 4-3 defense, or nose tackle in a 3-4.

I don't know when it was decided that defensive and nose tackles needed to be tall, when "short man wins" remains an oft-used axiom among coaches and players.

Foley is quite athletic and disruptive, but also uses something called "L E V E R A G E" to stand up run-blockers and bull-rush pass-blockers.

Short guys are vulnerable to initial punches.  The offensive lineman can get his hands on them early to arrest their mojo or disrupt their balance.

Amateur scouts write them off for this reason, but they're wrong.  The best short guys are good hand-fighters, and can knock the taller guy's slower hands away (outside).  Further, short arms don't just help them bench-press.  They help the short guy control the tall guy once he gets close.  Foley, in particular, also has a low center of gravity.

Contrary to some opinions, Brantley and Ogunjobi aren't as well-suited to the one-tech as they are to the 3.  Foley fits into either slot, and for that reason, has a shot.  Unfortunately, Jamie Meder could be the odd man out because of it.

I'm batting about .150 lately, as Hue Jackson himself said that Derrick Kindred would be playing free safety.

Kindred's position coach likes his change-of-direction quickness.  Kindred's 40 time is quite good for that position (doesn't mean that much here:  They don't start from a dead stop.  "Cruising speed" means more.)

I didn't read the question Hue was asked, but his exact words in re Kindred and free safety were "he'll be there", not "he'll be starting there".  And I doubt that Gregg Williams has made any firm decisions there this soon.

I still say that Kai Nacua is right there, contending with Kindred, and McCourty is the break glass in case of emergency guy.

Bold Predictions by Ryan Landolph (Factory of Sadness) was interesting and thoughtful.  I like this guy (so far).

Ryan thinks Kizer will be starting by game 3.  I do not.  I don't think Rodney Kesslerfield will let him.  If, as is likely, the Browns are no longer in playoff contention, Kizer ought to get his shot, because they do indeed need to see him in action, and get him some experience ahead of the next draft.

But then, Cody could get tko'd again, so Ryan might accidentally be right.

But this guy really is bold, as he predicts that Kevin Hogan makes the team, and Osweiler hits the dusty trail.  I hadn't seriously considered this before, but this writer makes sense.

Kevin Hogan last season was a 50% passer, but he ran around like Colon Kaperdick.  We're talking about the third quarterback here, ok?

As Ryan also points out, if Hogan is number three, he's not just collecting splinters.  Hue would use him in some Wildcat change-of-pace stuff.

Osweiler may have some unfixable issues.  There's a reason why no good quarterbacks are over 6'6".  Other than Joe Flacco, 6'5" is the cieling, for that matter.

Every motion is elongated and protracted.  Brock could be a stud basketball foreward, but still couldn't take a quick sidestep and reset, or get rid of the ball quickly.  It's not his fault, but it's just a physical reality.

Even Flacco to this day goes through periods of "averageness" as his mechanics regress a little.

Kevin Hogan, on the other hand, has real upside.  Many of my experts on NFL Radio talked him up in his own draft, figuring he might go as high as the second round.  None of them were picking at his accuracy or arm, either.

Clearly, as a rookie filling in, he made several dumb decisions, and missed badly on some pass attempts, but that's not the end of this story!  I keep trying to make you guys understand, young players tend to I M P R O V E, ok?

Hogan will probably never be a starter, but he is a dual threat who should become wiser and more accurate.  If this guy doesn't get injured, he should have a nice, long career in the NFL.

Mr. Landolph also thinks that the Browns will hold onto John Greco.  Ryan talks about "sacrificing cap space", which I find humorous.  It's more about sacrificing young talent.

Greco would be the sixth offensive lineman. Last season, the Browns retained eight.  To keep Greco, the Browns would need to waive some young talent.  Even if they try to sneak them onto the practice squad, they're exposing them to 31 other teams.

I sort of agree with Ryan that Rango and Johnson look like the last two (assuming eight are retained again; I think they're just as likely to keep nine this time).

Aside:  I always look for deep convoluted chess-plots, and wonder if Johnson vs Garrett is cooincidental.  They knew that Garrett would humiliate Johnson, ok?  They may now try to sneak the "tainted" left tackle onto the practice squad, as somebody trying to nab him would be less likely.  Just a theory.

John Greco is 31, not 35, and is an offensive lineman.  As a backup, he could well have three years left in his tank.  To both DePodesta and Brown, his retention is a viable option.

The Des Bryant thing is totally different.  Defensive linemen don't last as long.  Plus, in this defense, Bryant is a 3-tech period.  Greco can play every offensive line position (I know you don't want him at left tackle, but yeah even that).

I don't want to see Reiter go, and I haven't given up on Erving yet, either.  Maybe they can get a draft pick for Erving...I dunno...

Ryan doesn't think Sashi will add a vedderrunn wide receiver, but he doesn't seem to understand the real reasons.

He's actually looking at the 36-year old Anquan Boldin I mean...

Look, Sashi Brown has said that he will consider adding a veteran wide receiver, not that he wants or needs to!  The problem here is that he has a law degree and speaks english.  I'm here to translate: Sashi, when pressed, said he will LOOK AT veteran wide receivers.

HE never said the Browns needed one, nor did any of the coaches.  This is a little like the Trump-Russia collusion stuff.  This whole vedderunn wide receiver stuff all came from pundits and (dumber) guys like me.

Sorry to redundate yet again, but we are looking at a two tight end base offense in which a running back is probably the primary slot guy.  This means a number of "22" personnel looks entering huddles, leaving room for only ONE real wide receiver.

Even in a "12" package, there are only two actual wide receivers!  Isaiah Crowell can play the slot himself in this package, and empty out the backfield to present a five-wide, still with only two real wide receivers ok dammit stop it why dont you see this #`@)3×<#$@!@!!😲÷?!?!!

There is NOT any need for "vedderunn leederrship" for these wide receivers.  I wonder why Kenny Britt doesn't count here (not to mention the coaches).  Remember school?  How many teachers did you have in a classroom?  Did they fking outnumber you dammit?

This is cheap, but in point of law I should mention that all the current wide receivers are technically veterans now.

Ohmmm...ohmmm...anyway Ryan wrote a great article except for that part.  Even Terry Pluto keeps screwing that up, so he gets an A-minus.  His thoughts on Hogan over Osweiler were really sharp, and the John Greco thing was almost as good as the stuff I wrote in my last or second-last post.

None of the five players who Patrick Maks says have shined so far should surprise my readers, except for Matthew Dayes.

Dayes is growing on me, and this may be a case where combine numbers don't count.  I remember a guy named Earnest Byner.  

Earnest wasn't big or fast, and didn't get drafted.  He went to the USFL, where he kicked ass.  Ernie Accorsi signed him to the Browns.

Byner played way over his weight-class taking handoffs, but was absolutely lethal catching dumpoffs out of the backfield, and was actually a big-time lead blocker for Kevin Mack.

Dayes is starting to look a lot like Earnest Byner to me.  

Patrick also hit on Seth DeValve (music to my bloodshot eyes).  You guys know I should run the DeValve fan club.  In my opinion, he has already nailed down the top tight end slot, and Hue does NOT expect Njoku to overtake him any time soon.

Njoku and DeValve are remarkably similar to eachother statisticly and athletically.  DeValve is a little shorter and (now) heavier, and they don't look exactly the same, but they have similar skills.

Right now, Njoku is reincarnating Edwards Scissorhands, but I expect him to overcome this.  Meanwhile, DeValve has predictably improved, and never dropped passes in the first place.

I was glad to hear Crowell say he wanted to stay in Cleveland, but shocked to hear him talk about "top money".  David Johnson and Ebineezer Belle are in reality the best running backs in football, and Belle just turned down 15 mil/year.

Crow just hired Drew Rosenhaus, and this does not look promising for 2018.  I hope I'm wrong, because Crowell might be the next Beastmode, but Sashi won't blow over 10% of his cap on any non-quarterback, and I don't blame him.

I never hope for a player to be injured, but...ok maybe a hammy a couple times? An ankle sprain?  Yeah I hope Crow gets stuck in some mud and loses leverage so sue me.  If Sashi hasn't already offered him four years, 40 mil, 8 guaranteed in year one, 7 in year 2, and 5 per thereafter (total 25 guaranteed), he screwed up.

If he did, and Crow rejected it, he screwed up.

I'm sick of this.  I remember multi-millionaire (and scumbag) Albert Belle taking like 2.2% more to bug out and talking about how he could support his family now.  I remember Jim Thome doing the same and saying "it's not about the money".

A lot of you guys see all this cap space the 2017 Browns have and want to spend it all, giving everybody everything they want.

Sashi and company are looking seven or ten years down the road, and even in 2017 cannot realisticly expect to contend.

If you don't believe me, believe Jimmy Haslam.

But I digress:  Whoever plays free safety for Gregg Williams in 2017, they'll win at least five games, and be playoff contenders in 2018.

Gregg Williams could defect for a Head Coach gig, which would hurt a lot, but the Browns will no longer be a place for top-notch coaches to avoid.

Further, elite players with two gliel cells to rub together won't be demanding 10% more to sign with the Browns either.

ALL of this is part of Paul DePodesta's plan.  

Certainly, the Browns need to make the right personnel moves.  You can't have Manziels or Gilberts, or for that matter Ervings.

But if you are already bashing Sashi Brown's first two seasons, you are insane (well except for Schwartze so stipulated--but not Mack deal with it).

So far so good.  Screw 1-15 look at the individual players and their upsides.  It's irrelevant that Kessler never won a game, for example.  How he played was all that mattered.

A lot of you are stuporstitious, and attribute God-like powers to quarterbacks.  You somehow manage to blame every loss on them, no matter how well they play. That's mystical crap.  

Cody Kessler proved himself in his rookie season in a far more difficult situation than Wentz or Prescott inheritted.

Jeez how many "he's a winner" winning college quarterbacks crapped out in the NFL?  Come ON you expect Kizer to replace this guy right away when he played bad and lost in college because he's bigger and can throw deeper?

Ah crap I give up.  I'm all kerphlemt talk amongst yourselves.

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