Saturday, August 12, 2017

Browns Preseason Game One: Stars are Born

Of all people, Bud Shaw was the quickest to write a sane article on the quarterback situation in the wake of DeShone Kizer's impressive debut thursday night vs the Saints.

First, I'll pre-correct the shrinking number of permabashers who decided before any quarterback was signed or drafted that he would bust out:

1: The fact that he was playing against the bottom of the Saints depth chart is almost irrelevant, because he was playing with the bottom of the Browns depth chart.

2: The "vanilla scheme" thing is overstated.  The Saints were blitzing a lot, and mixing coverages too.  Offenses are more vanilla in preseason than defenses.

On the other hand, listen to Hue Jackson's pre-emptive critique aimed at Mary Kay Cabbot, who he knows will declare that Kizer has won the starting job:

He held the ball too long, stared down receivers, and made some bad throws and decisions.  He is a rookie.  He needs more work DO YOU UNDERSTAND MARY KAY?

Osweiler had two days to work with the first team, and most of his problems could be attributed to a lack of chemistry with receivers he'd never worked with.  He did start to get on track in his final drive.

You can't help but be thrilled with Kizer's dramatic improvement in completion percentage, 114 passer rating, and really amazing deep accuracy.

But if he makes the mistakes he made vs the Steelers defense in a real game?  

As Bud Shaw says (quite well), let's see what Brockytop can do with over a week of first-team reps in preseason game two before we make another spastic move.

Brock is using the whole playbook.  Kizer's is attenuated and adapted to him.  Defensive coordinators are already watching that film, and will come up with his kryptonite.

Finally, Kizer is here for five years.  Osweiler is a costly, diminishing asset.  If he can succeed next week, Sashi still has a chance to "cash out" and get a draft pick for him.

As the second (or preferably third) team quarterback, Kizer would once again get proportionately more reps/experience, with two more preseason games remaining.

At this stage, it doesn't matter which unit Kizer plays with, as long as he gets his reps.

Now that I've dumped icewater all over DeShone, I can let my inner-fan out to play:

Wow!  He sure looks like the real deal!  I was unable to watch the game (listened to Jim and Doug), but I was able to watch every pass he threw later.

I saw what Hue was talking about (holding the ball).  The tape didn't show the three sacks, so it made it look like no big deal, but it is.  

This almost always means he's missed his reads, you understand.  He has at least two check-downs every time, and all three are rarely covered.

Like Hue says, rookies do that a lot, and he's not too worried about it long term.  

But I also saw him throwing short darts to crossers.  He wasn't as good at this as he is going postal, but this is where he's made the most progress.

As I've explained, short accuracy to crossers and slanters is very different than vertical accuracy, and there's no way a quarterback can really be elite without being at least above average at both.  If you can't threaten the whole field, defenses can stifle you.

Every short pass I did see was a rocket, but then every short reception I saw was into a very tight window (he had to make stick-throws---and he was mostly on the money.  It was impressive.)

Kessler can't do that.  He can't get it there that fast.  Give him credit for knowing it.

(Side-note here:  Why weren't those crossers getting open?  Are the Saints coverage scrubs that good?  Something's wrong.)

One exception to Kizer's holding the ball issue was that fourth and short touchdown bomb.  He had max protection, and was supposed to wait (if he could.  He no doubt could have ran for a first down-- and don't you know, the defense knew that, see?)

You can do that stuff with a dual threat guy on third or fourth and short.  They have to set up for the run first, then they have to be careful how they attack the backfield.  They really can't afford to hold a safety deep when he's needed in the box and has the best chance of stopping the running quarterback...but I digress anyway you can't do this with Kessler OR Osweiler.  Maybe with Hogan, but Hogan doesn't have that kind of arm...but I redigress...

And yeah, when this particular kid does take over, Hue will pick certain pages out of his massive playbook which suit him best.  Osweiler and Kessler are more conventional.

Kizer has unwisely compared himself to Cam Newton and Tom Brady both.  Well, he's not as big as Cam, but he runs like Cam.  Brady doesn't hold the ball, but I'll tell you what:

DeShone Kizer is deadly accurate at any range.  That's what anybody with a brain saw thursday night.  Yeah, I'm wrong AGAIN!!!

Kizer's got it ALL, man!  I haven't seen if he can use more "touch" on those shorter routes yet.  That's much harder than firing a rifle-shot straight at a spot, and it's about half the skillset required for a Montana-type sharpshooter (and something Kessler excels at).

You can't just assume he'll get good at that, either, people.

But how are we supposed to find out when every short and intermediate receiver he hit was covered like white on rice dammit?  Hey Al Saunders why can't your guys separate?

Well I've probably blabbed over my weight class again, because that was probably zone because I saw the receivers stopped dead, which they're supposed to vs that coverage.

If they don't, Kizer's rifle shot gets picked off.  If they don't and Kizer also screws up, they might end up like Darryl Stingley.  (The lesser consequences graduate down from a coma to a fumble).

...oh some of you don't know that!  Zone coverage is more about putting people in your way than about passing receivers off like batons.

When the 49ers started tearing up the NFL by turning dink passes into 60 yard touchdowns, zone coverage was part of the solution...

But I digress again:  Anyhow that's what a "stick-throw" is: it's a (generally low) bullet pass to the correct side of a receiver who has just stopped dead.  It arrives too fast for the defensive back to prevent the catch.  

Kizer made those throws as well as anybody I've seen.  He wasn't perfect, but like I said, as good as any.  It was very impressive, yes it was!  

However, he was probably late on those throws...because he waited for the receivers to stop and turn towards him, instead of throwing when he was supposed to throw.  This gave the coverage guys a chance to close on the receivers, which made the stick-throws neccessary yeah I get it now.

I'll skip Myles Garrett (he speaks for himself) but preseason is where undrafted, practice squad, and third/4th year free agent stars are born.

Trevon Coley was one of these.  He caused that fumble and caused most of the rest of his mayhem from Danny Shelton's left dt spot.  (I'm not sure but Jamie Meder probably did the same from that spot as well).

I love how this Browns regime does business.  At the end of the day, it won't matter if/where you were drafted, or by whome.  Coley (stolen from the Ravens) immediately passed up Ogunjobi (Brantley is injured) based on his performance in practice.

As I posted earlier (blush-blush) scouts blew it on Coley...and a bunch of people blew it on Brantley and Ogunjobi too...Coley can play every inside position in every scheme.  He's actually a veteran, tutored by the Ravens, so he's ready to rock.

My man WR Rodney Lesliefield didn't do that much this time, and Jordan Payton did, so he's fallen behind again.

Josh Boyce had a couple nice plays, but also dropped one.  He's a 26 year-old geezer without Jordan Leslie's freakdom, so he's in even more trouble.

Rannell Hall is on the ropes too.  It's not just his dropped passes (note: from Kizer), but the fact that Jabrill Peppers is another Josh Cribbs.  Also, Ranell is a shrimp.

The linebacker situation is sad.  It's sad because, like edge-rushing defensive ends, starting caliber players will get cut loose.

After this first preseason game, Joe Schobert might well have passed up the long-suffering Tank Carder at mlb (and backup olb).

This stuff is hard for me, because I love underdogs, and it would suck if, after all this time, Tank doesn't get his big break.

But Joe Schobert is better.  

It's ok, though: Tank Carder is a core special teamer, and he's now made himself more indispensable because he's proven that he really is a pretty good linebacker.

Dominique Alexander...well it's sad.  Some really good players are going to get cut off this Browns roster.  Look at what Nate Orchard did thursday night!  Do you understand that he might still get cut?

...or not.  Cam Johnson is older.  Ty Holmes is a very similar player.  Garrett, Ogbah, and Nassib are set in stone.  That leaves one slot.  It's sad.

I root for Nate Orchard, because he was actually a decent 3-4 OLB and always just finds ways to make plays; he's just a pure football player with great instincts, and the hell with his combine numbers.

But that's just my emotionally charged amatuer opinion.  Someday I dream of buying access to PFF's database so I can clinicly compare players, but for right now I'm just a fan (sorta).

Mayes didn't impress me as much as he seemed to impress everybody else.  It was pretty cool how he took his time and picked his shot to get that touchdown, but I don't make as big a deal of that as most people do.

Don't get me wrong: I've compared Mayes to Earnest Byner.  I just hate it when certain Doug announcers Jim who shall remain nameless bend over backwards (and foreward) lavishing praise on any player.

What about Richard Mullaney, who got open 45-plus yards deep and caught that Kizer bomb?  He's still a guy named Joe.

I feel for the "losers", because I know they're in the 99th percentile, and am irked by the fact that the 15th percentile calls them "losers" and "bumbs", but I take comfort from the fact that they'll make more money than most of their critics do.

Sadly, I have to spell this out: If the 2017 Browns are forced to cut starting caliber linebackers, defensive ends,  running backs, guards, centers, tight ends, and possibly even wide receivers, where are they, really?

Oh crap I left gaps!  Sigh...

The Browns will probably keep four tight ends.  The loser is probably JP Holtz, who has been kicking ass as a receiver from all over the place.  Hell YES he could start somewhere else, if you're not picky about in-line blocking.  JP could only start for 7-8 teams, though.

Fabiano could only start at center for 4-8 teams.  He's mostly a zone-blocker.  Ikard is similar.  Reiter got the jump on them.  He's bigger and stronger now.

Ok look I shouldn't need to spell the rest of it out--my god if my twelve followers are mindless zombies I have failed utterly just T H I N K ok?

The 2017 Browns are unlikely to make the playoffs *can't count it out--not now*, but they should achieve respectability.

Aside from Joe Thomas, Njoku was also missing.  Hue ran his two tight end offense with Telfer (how bout that? Dint know he could catch, did you?  I mean, unless you read my blog that is dammit)

Anyway you need to join me here and strive for imagination:

Imagine DeShone Kizer at QB (in game TEN) (or later):

...ok look you can't.  Everybody is telling you that Hue Jackson is a mad bomber, and that's bullshit.  Hue Jackson is ultra-flexible, but prefers a Correlyan timing offense.  This is more vertical/aggressive than Walsh's "west coast", but is kinda the same...

...as, by the way, Lindy Infante's offensive scheme, which underpinned the "Kardiak Kids", and much of which Walsh stole and took credit for.

But I digress again: The point is, Hue Jackson runs a timing offense.  He goes deep occasionally but prefers accurate, high-percentage, chain-moving passes overall!

Kizer has to get rid of it on-time to make it work right.  That's why the HEAD COACH QUARTERBACK GURU keeps telling you "he's a rookie.  He's got a lot of work to do.  It's way too early"  DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

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