Sunday, August 27, 2017

Hogan, Leslie, Meritocracy, and the Cleveland Browns

There's a whole lotta assumin goin on around heah!

No, I don't mean about Kizer starting game one.  His stats don't reflect his performance, as Terelle Pryor Kenny Britt dropped a key red zone pass, his interception came off a deflection, he delivered on every single third down (including a drop), and he's a rookie.

Kizer didn't run once.  He used the threat of a run to set up a couple passes, but was actually a real quarterback.

I overestimated the changes Hue would make to adapt to Kizer, as the Browns looked fairly conventional, so Kizer is actually ahead of schedule.

He "locked onto receivers" too often, but that's intermittant, as at other times he fakes defenders out quite effectively.  That will automatically improve...obviously.

This was a vanilla defense.  Based on this one game, the Steelers will try to take Coleman away and send fast pressure etc., but Hue might be saving a Kizer-package on purpose, see?

The assumptions are that Rodney Hoganfield and Rodney Rodney Lesliefield are going to be released no matter what they do.

Here are stats from the game.  (Default disclaimers third stringers blahblah vanilla blahblah).

Hogan's statline actually did depict his performance pretty well.  With one exception, Hogan has kicked ass at every opportunity, by air as well as on the ground.

He has outperformed Kessler and Osweiler, albeit against inferior defenses--but remember what I said about quarterbacks and level of competition.

He and Rodney Lesliefield have teamed up, much like Kizer and Coleman have, but Hogan used other receivers as well, and as usual stung the defense repeatedly on scrambles.

I was unable to watch the game, and nobody who did has bothered to pay any attention whatsoever to either of these players, so I don't have much to go on, aside from 2016 pre-draft scouting reports like this one from NFL.com.

Based on what he did last year with the Browns, and thus far this offseason, this one seems the most credible.  They're wrong about his arm--he has a pretty good one--and understate his mobility.

I never knew that he actually completed over 76% of his short passes in college!  He's statisticly more accurate than KESSLER! 

His mechanics were a mess when he was drafted a year ago, and when he got to play last season as a Brown as well (completed around 54%), but I'm guessing that he is more proficient now, based on his preseason, which I haven't seen any of.

In addition to being the second-best quarterback on this roster, his skill set matches up with Kizer's extremely well.

So why is everybody coloring him a GMF despite all this? (Hat tip to MKC, who guessed that Hue Jackson might promote Hogan this week, but she's the only one it even occurred to).

And the same people who are proclaiming every 2016 wide receiver except Coleman a bust simultaneously expect Leslie to be released.  How does this make sense?  What tf has the guy got to do?

Well, that's not so simple as it sounds, since the Browns first team ran their two backs and two tight ends, sometimes simultaneously.  I know that Higgins got one rep only because Jim Donovan mentioned him, but for all I know, that was it for all three of them.

How can you declare guys losers when they don't even play!?

And now people are turning this into "major depth concerns at wide receiver".

Yes, I think Jordan Leslie, the most productive receiver throughout this preseason, is better than those other guys.  But it's really ignorant and unfair to bash the other guys without even getting them on the field.

Get it?  A guy gets to spell Britt or Coleman for ONE PLAY (if that), and the next thing you know some knucklehead is writing that he posted a "zero" on the stat sheet and decrying the lack of wr depth!  

But Leslie is better than those guys.  The hell with the 33 total yards the SIX CATCHES are what matter!  He was Hogan's go-to guy, and just kept delivering!  He's reliable as hell!

He's 6'3" and very strong, but also quick and fast.  He's not a possession guy.  He can go postal.  In some ways, he bears a strong resemblance to Josh Gordon.

As I posted earlier, Leslie was undrafted, and was released by a couple teams before coming here.  I had to conclude that either the other teams were idiots, or Leslie had a commitment/work ethic or personality issue of some sort, because his physical tools are pretty amazing (much better that Payton or Higgins, and even a little better than Lewis.)

Does Hue Jackson walk the walk, like Gregg Williams unmistakeably does?  Will his best players make the final roster (not to mention being ranked) based on how well they perform, and regardless of draft status or other politics?

Stop right there!  Sure Sashi Brown hopes his draft picks make the team, and no doubt Hue knows that.  But is this a meritocracy or not?  Sashi Brown will NOT keep or release any player unless Hue Jackson consents to it.

And what about Sashi?  If he's following the DePodesta plan, HE must ignore politics if he wants his team to succeed.  That includes releasing draft picks who are not performing as well as free agent pickups period (unless the upsides are too different).

Sigh...age and money are factors but don't apply here obviously sigh.

We'll see how this works out.  I've been around long enough to expect Leslie to get cut no matter what, but if they cut Hogan I'm going to have a fit.  I've seen enough of Osweiler, and Kessler...I still like him, but he's Checkdown Charlie now.

Hogan.  Is.  BETTER.  OBVIOUSLY.

By the way Hue if you read this, check with your IT people.  My emails to you keep coming back as "undeliverable", and nobody will give me your phone number.  We need to fix this before the final cuts!

Speaking of which, Gregg Williams (again: NOT Sashi Brown) will have to release a whole BUNCH of really good players!  His defense is STACKED to overflowing!

Jabrill Peppers has taken MOST of his reps at free safety, and it's looking like he was a bigger steal than anybody outside the organization (including me) imagined.

I thought we'd drafted Troy Polumalu, but so far this guy looks at least as much like Ed Reed!  I had no idea he was as SMART as he is!  I bet you Gregg was pounding the table over this guy!

Now to tear some new ones:

How are these trolls dominating the comment boards here?

Check this out:

Myles Garrett has done NOTHING.  Kizer is a train wreck.  0-16.  Steelers 52 Browns 10.  Shelton should be cut.  Joe Thomas is overrated.  The front 7 sucks.  Hue Jackson is a carreer failure and can't call plays.  Gregg Williams is overrated.  Sashi Brown is the worst FO guy in history.

How many sacks per-QUARTER does Garrett need?  Nevermind it's like kicking puppies.

I have to pound the table over Joe Schobert again.  He's even better than I told you he was!  Gregg Williams' 4-2 is back to a 4-3 again, because he wants this guy on the field on every down.

Schobert has a LOT to do with this defense's effectiveness vs the run.  He's actually now Gregg Williams' on-field "quarterback" in year two of his carreer calling plays for his defense!  

That's just pre-snap!  Post-snap, he's almost always in the right place at the right time, because he's got the instincts to go with his brains.

Remember: He was a 3-4 OLB in college, and Gregg Williams wasn't the first football guy to say he didn't belong at that position.

I told you this as soon as he was drafted, and predicted he'd be an inside linebacker in Ray Horton's defense.

Anyway he's now about as big as an extra-big strong safety, with commensurate upgrades in quickness, speed, and endurance.

Gregg's 4-man front keeps the hogs off him, so he can run-and hit (or cover).

Trevon Coley, with the first unit, was once again all over the place, demonstrating an impressive motor and surprising range.

I told you about this guy too, but here again, he's even better than I'd thought he was.  Right now, he looks like a sure starter at either DT slot, and for that matter a potential Pro-Bowler.

...kinda like Rodney Lesliefield, except Coley is getting his props...

I hate to say it, but I think Jamie Meder might be on his way out.

Gregg Williams has hidden nothing from offensive coordinators watching game films, but it doesn't matter.  They still can't predict him.  His tendancies are too general to anticipate.  They know he'll blitze, but not from where.  His coverages all look the same pre-snap, and oknevermind but:

I think Hue is playing it closer to the vest on offense.

He actually played it pretty straight with Kizer.  Screen passes were conspicuously absent.  Terry Pluto attributed zero passes to the running backs to Kizer's inability or reluctance to check down, but I'm not sold on that.

Hue is smarter than the average bear, and might have ordered Kizer to play dumb.  Yes, Hue did want to win that game to build confidence, but that was secondary to developing his rookie quarterback.

Think about it:  "Just focus on your first and second reads this time.  If nothing's there run or throw it away before you bail out.  The Steelers are watching, and I'm not about to show them everything.  We can't beat them if they see us coming.  It doesn't matter if you look bad here.  You're starting that game, and that's the one we need to win."

...Just a theory.

But no, he didn't tell him to lock onto receivers or take too long to throw or any of that stuff.

Finally, how 'bout that Corey Coleman?  And he didn't get INJURED!!!  He was sure-handed and reliable!  He's made a big leap here, because that was never his strong suit.  C Coleman's strong suit is scoring from anywhere on the field.

He didn't do that vs Tampa Bay, but he will.  He is our Antonio Brown.  Yes, he is.

Well that's all I got except if Hogan or Leslie are released, that's just plain stupid.


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