Peter Smith seems to like Matthew Dayes more than the bigger, stronger, faster Rodney Atkinsonfield III. I respect Pete too much to debate that point, but, as he often does, he provoked my thoughts.
(Well--that and people fretting over wide receiver depth, raving about Seth DeValve and Isaiah Crowell...)
Everybody knows that with Gregg Williams, you can throw the book out. He plays safeties at linebacker, runs wierd fronts, etc.
The thing is, why does everybody expect Hue Jackson to stick to "the book" in only the second year of his reign?
Hue was the Head Coach of the Raiders a long time ago, but he inherited the bulk of his talent, so you really can't look at that. As an offensive coordinator, he's only made the most of what he's been given, and these players included terrific running backs, wide receivers, and one lethal tight end.
Don't look there, either. As I've repeated ad nauseum, Hue Jackson only got a strong voice in personnel matters before his inaugural 2016 season, and couldn't really use all of it last season, as several ot those players were rookie projects.
Well, I think that Hue might just get extra-wierd this season.
I've already predicted a two-tight end base offense, but Hue might up the ante and run a bunch of 22 personnel (two tight ends AND two running backs.)
During training camp, Gregg Williams will force him to give it a protracted test drive, as he tries size and power vs Williams' speed.
First off, that makes what Peter wrote about Dayes as "Duke Insurance" make more sense.
Here's what I mean: The offensive side of the 53-man roster rounds out at around 25. Teams carry between 7 and 9 offensive linemen. We'll say 8 here.
All carry two, and some carry three, quarterbacks. I'll indulge and make it 3 (11 so far).
Here's where it gets interesting. It's sort of considered unthinkable for a team to carry more than three tight ends, but if Hue is building around tight ends, he could carry four (15).
And if he is determined to run a lot of two-back, he could carry 5 running backs (including an actual blocking fullback).
That's 20. We got room left for five wide receivers, although I think he might go with four or even three sometimes, and let Williams load up a little extra.
Now, if you're saying "Where's the big plays? Where's the speed?", you don't grok football. This is all about forcing opposing defenses to play people they don't want to play, keeping some of their better little guys on the bench, and then exploiting more numerous and bigger mismatches.
...and about being unique in the NFL.
Call it the "Belichick" formula. Get it?
This gets really deep, so I'll just point a few things out before I go on:
1: As amazing as this sounds, all Browns tight ends will be expected to block in-line, as well as act like huge wide receivers. (Believe it or not, that's what tight ends used to do. Honest!)
2: Duke, Dayes, and the 6'1" Atkinson can line up not only in the slot, but at wide receiver. (Yes, Atkinson can do that too, dammit). Crowell has become an accomplished slot guy. Any of the four is a dangerous outlet receiver.
3: Why were the Browns reluctant to meet Terrelle Pryor's asking price? Why did they release Hawkins, and otherwise stand pat with what they had at wide receiver?
4: Which team in the NFL runs a 22?
4a: Which personnel groups are NFL defenses built to stop?
Now, the disclaimers: 22 is unlikely in third and long, and less likely coming from behind with time running out. Even in my rather extreme scenario, I wouldn't expect to see it more than 40% of the time.
Also, matchups matter, so from week to week you'd see more or less of the two-back.
Now, the Browns might surprise the Steelers with this in week one, but after that, opposing coaches would see it coming, and game-plan for it.
But that's a tall order, because it's a physical, yet balanced attack. How do you match up?
Inside the box, 22 personnel demands a base defense with four defensive backs, but this Browns 22 doesn't fit in any box.
Ok, it's just impossible to match up with, ok? It can't be done.
DeValve and Njoku, like a bunch of other lethal receiving tight ends in today's NFL are pretty much uncoverable (which is why every NFL team is grabbing them). But the Browns now have TWO of them, see? And they can both BLOCK (no really honest! Like Mike Ditka used to ya know? I swear it's true!)
As for Duke and Mayes, I just have to pick at ma man Peter Smith a little here: As wide receivers, most corners and some safeties can cover them. Peter is assuming a strong safety or linebacker is on them, but this assumes a conventional offense with two actual wide receivers, and not even two tight ends. Pete over-assumes here.
I told you this would get deep...
Okay-okay when that huddle breaks and your two running backs and two tight ends leave it and line up, I'll give you eight guesses about where they'll line up (in what formation) and would offer 2:1 odds that you would still be wrong.
The base "threat" is an "elephant" formation, with a defacto seven-man offensive line and a lead-blocker. OR, on the other end of the scale, you could face a defacto FIVE-wide (not sure it's legal-one receiver might need to be off the line).
Regardless of what formation shows up (including the elephant set), ALL of the skill people can still catch passes, so you can't even count on it not being a pass.
If it's Gregg Williams (or me) on the other side of this, the best solution might just be a "big" dime, with both extra DB's being safeties (ok well in this case we will call Kirksey a "safety" but most teams can't do this).
You man-up your best defensive back on the one true wide receiver (crossing your fingers he can stay with Britt, Coleman, or (ahem) Gordon), hold a safety deep middle, (concede short routes), cover everywhere else in zone...
...deeper and deeper: It depends on down and distance, the score, time, and exactly how the offense lines up too. But the "cover" corner on the wide receiver and the deep safety should be universal...hmm...
So should the zone coverage everywhere else. You simply can't man up on Njoku or DeValve, even with a Peppers or a Kirksey or a Collins. Zone lets you set up road-blocks for crossing routes, and lets your guys turn and run upfield when they attack seams.
Okay-okay zone neutralizes West Coast timing routes, which are intended to get the ball to slanters and crossers in-stride and let them keep going. You can't do that when there's a human road-block standing there waiting to decapitate you.
The offensive adjustment to zone is for the receiver to "sit down" (stop), and the (smart) quarterback to hit him right there, on time; throwing the ball before he stops.
This is why my proposed 22-heavy offense wouldn't light the NFL up. The zone coverage not only minimizes RAC-yards, but gives coverage guys chances to anticipate and jump routes, nail receivers who are standing still when they catch the ball, and also lets the coverage guys watch the backfield, so they'll see the run coming, and charge the line unblocked.
On the other hand, zones can be "flooded" (deliberately) if a QB has enough time to wait for it, and can be burned deep. But not often.
...but an offense can march up and down the field with 4-9 yard passes, and these tight ends are seam-busters, because they can run straight at and by the human road block, forcing him to turn and try to man up on him.
Now I'll stick with Gregg Williams here: He's sending five against my hypothetical Jackson offense, and the blitzer is usually coming inside.
This is kind of mathematical: The two tight ends (not to mention Big Joe) can at least slow down a built-in edge-rush, but when you come between the tackles, the only guys that can stop you are offensive linemen or a running back.
In the real world, I'm not sure if the best offensive line in history could slow down five real passrushers, so the running back has to block, and can't catch. Meanwhile, if it IS a run, the blitzer has a 25% chance of blowing it up in the backfield, and a better chance of getting into "hot pursuit" of anything outside or off-tackle.
Still, I love the 22 thing.
Okay-okay everybody accepts that Gregg Williams doesn't sweat labels ("positions"), and just wants the best 11 players on the field amap. Why do so many of you think offense is different, or that Hue Jackson is a blockhead?
Who are the best skill players on Hue's offense?
I'll list them in order, objectively:
Disclaimer: Some tough calls here: Coleman hasn't proven anything yet but has astronomical talent. It's tough to balance running backs against receivers. I'll err towards yardage and TDs to try to be fair, but as my base have to use talent, relative to other NFL players, at specific positions:
1: TE Njoku
1a: TE DeValve
2: RB Crowell
3: WR Coleman
4: RB Johnson
5: WR Britt (tough call here: Britt is massively underrated, and could rightfully rank above both Johnson and Coleman).
6: WR Louis (yeah that's right I said it!)
After this, it's in the weeds with Adkinson, Holtz, and then Dayes. That's two running backs and two tight ends though, ok?
A couple notes here: Randall Telfer is an old-school tight end who is a really good blocker, but also a possession receiver. You don't split him out or call him an H-Back, but he's a solid player. TJ Holtz is like Gary Barnidge. He has more physical talent than Gary did. We'll see what he does with it, but don't sleep on him.
Anyway, based on this (admittedly subjective) list, if you wanted to field your best 5 skill players amap, what do you see?
Two tight ends, two running backs, and one wide receiver.
Where did I go wrong?
Obviously, Cody Kessler is the best quarterback to run this, zone-blocking would help a great deal, and it helps a lot that PFF rates this new iteration of the Browns offensive line as the second best in the NFL.
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