DeShone Kizer Should Start. Eventually.

The fact that Hue Jackson is spending the bulk of his time tutoring DeShone Jackson is predictable, and not significant. 

While Hue wants to give the kid a nice head start, there is no urgent emergency program to get him on the field to start game one.  Kizer is simply the clueless rookie and needs the most help.

While he probably does have the most potential here, Kizer is also the farthest away from starting, as this most excellent Film Room article (WFNY) illustrates.

Contrary to popular misconceptions, Hue Jackson intends to run a timing-based passing offense, including a bunch of slants and crosses.  

Hue is more "Air Coryall" than Shanahan, but the principles are the same.  As it stands, DeShone Kizer is not a good fit, and no: Hue isn't going to scrap the horizontal timing passes to accomodate him.  Cody Kessler and yes, Brock Osweiler are both good at this stuff, and Hue wouldn't be doing the rookie any favors running a one-dimensional passing offense just for him.  Opposing defenses would destroy him.

No, Kizer needs to get better at what he sucks at, period, in order to fulfill his potential.

The film room study exposed slow progressions, bad decisions, and poor short and intermediate accuracy as weaknesses.

The short and intermediate inaccuracy is easily explained.

Vertical passes are much different than crossing passes.  Some quarterbacks are simply a lot better at hitting receivers running away from them than they are hitting guys crossing in front of them.

The vertical passes are linear.  The skill is in shading the ball to the right or the left, and trajectory.  Kizer can do that as well as anybody--including "out" routes in which the receiver makes a sharp cut to the outside (that's timing btw).

In every case, the angles have the receiver moving away from the quarterback.

To be sure, this takes a ton of skill, and not many quarterbacks can do it well.  They underthrow or overthrow, their placement sucks, etc.  

Indeed, this is why Rodney Kesslerfield is being written off by the clueless.  He is not, and will never be, like Kizer already is as a deep passer, and it's harder to find mad bombers than it is to find snipers.

I've talked about "reading" before, and this part of the film study makes me nervous about Kizer.  To redundate, it has nothing to do with intelligence, and some guys just don't have the mental hardware to ever master it.  And just so you know, I suspect that I am one of those.

If I had just been bigger, and had a stronger arm, and been able to hit the broad side of a barn, and...but I digress:

Anyway hitting guys crossing in front of you is totally different than hitting deep passes and outs.  It's not linear.  

It happens faster.  It actually requires less skill and accuracy.

I'm having trouble describing it.  The big, strong quarterback has to shorten and quicken his motion.  He has to "flick", more than throw.  He has to find a "lower gear" for his arm.

Most of all, he has to lead his target in two dimensions, mentally, instead of in three.  

I can't speak to progressions or reading, but am pretty confident that Kizer will figure the short and intermediate accuracy stuff in time, and with Hue Jackson's help.

If/when Kizer takes over, Hue will get more aggressive (more vertical), but first, DeShone Kizer must fix this "hole in his swing", so that opposing defenses can't trash him with pressure and soft coverage.  

And this will take time.

Not that those who think Kizer should collect splinters all season are right, either.  Contrary to some scouting reports, the WFNY film study regards Kizer as a legit dual threat in the NFL.

That means that Hue Jackson can come up with a training wheels package for him including read/option, rollouts, play-action (Kizer was the best QB in this draft in play action per PFF btw), etc.

We saw last season how Hue is different.  When Kessler stumbled out of the gate, Hue replaced him with Terrelle Pryor.  Then put Kessler back in.  Then Pryor.  Then Kessler again.

If you think DeShone Kizer won't play in 2017, you are a Martonian.  If you think he'll start in Game One, you are Chicken Little.

If you think Kessler will get concussed early, you're a pessimist.  The offensive line has been massively upgraded, and he won't be holding onto the damn ball this time.

If you think DeShone Kizer can be better than Brock Osweiler any time soon, you are brainwashed.  As Terry Pluto (after me blush-blush) pointed out, there is more to this guy than Bill O'Brien and 2016.

That being said, DeShone Kizer could be the pot o' gold at last.  Or not.  

Ok look: He's a big (and will get bigger) dual threat.  He's an exceptional deep passer.  Just as Cody Kessler will never match him deep, he will never match Kessler short and intermediate.

But DeShone Kizer is already absolutely lethal on all the most difficult throws; already RARE in this.  If he can become slightly above average in the dink and the dunk, Doctor Jacksonstein will have found his monster.

I'm thrilled that Sashi nailed down Chris Kirksey for perhaps the rest of his carreer.  He was amazing last season, and hasn't even peaked yet.  He's being lauded for his coverage and anti-run skills, but (as Gregg Williams has surely noticed), he is a terrific passrusher as well.

Local yokels defaulted him to MLB here, and are surprised to see him on the weak side...which is stunningly stupid.

They're still no doubt defaulting Collins outside too.  It doesn't occur to anybody but me that Jamie Collins could be a middle linebacker in a Gregg Williams defense.

Anyway nice job Sashi Brown.  Kirksey is a stud core player and you KEPT him!  (And thanks Chris for having a brain).

The Isaiah Crowell saga isn't over yet.  I'm not sure whether or not somebody could still make an offer to him, but I can't fault Sashi Brown for the second round tender ahead of this running back-laden draft either way.

I don't know how far apart the Browns and Crowell are, but I do know that Sashi sure as hell offered him more than 2.7 mil, and that Isaiah is underpaid as it stands.

PFF and others have picked at Crowell, citing his inconsistencies.  He was shut down sometimes--not just for one game, but over several games.  On the surface, his stats describe an elite running back.  But when you dig deeper, you find weaknesses.

I personally think that the 2016 version of Crowell was Beast-modian, and think he turned a corner psychologicly.  He proved that he could no longer be tackled by a strong wind-gust.

But I suspect that he and his agent were demanding top 7 running back money based on that.  PFF points out that in 2016 Crow was shut down in several (often consecutive) games.  His overall stats are impressive as hell, but mask his occasional ineffectiveness.

The sad fact is that Isaiah Crowell is expendable.  There is a glut of running backs in this market, one of which is Duke Johnson, another of which is named Rodney Atkinsonfield:  Both are Cleveland Browns, and the big money guys never get shut down.

On the other hand, no running back can beat 8-man fronts with blitzes more often than not either (the inconsistency wasn't all his fault).

All I can say is I love Isaiah Crowell and think he could become Beast Mode plus (by "plus" I mean he's a dangerous receiver, including out of the slot), but I'm not his agent here:

The market is the market.  The fact that nobody bid on him should have been a strong hint.

Crow thinks he could have a monster year.  So do I.  I guess he's betting on himself.  I respect that.  

For Sashi, this is "analytics": Crowell is cheap, and in a contract year.  We are about to see this running back at his best, all year long.

If he has a monster year, we'll see.  If he gets injured, his price comes down.  If he's the same, his price comes down.  If the several studs drafted this season kick ass (as expected), his price comes down.  If he is stubborn, his replacement is at hand.

Isaiah, it's time to get it done.

Now, a respectful note to Terry Pluto about wide receivers:

1: Every player drafted last season will be significantly better than he was as a rookie, including the three wide receivers drafted after Corey Coleman.  You don't have to see this to confirm it.  It is inevitable.  Give them a freaking chance, already!

2: The Browns will not run a conventional spread offense.  A third wide receiver will not be on the field very often.  The third wide receiver is a depth guy.  The fourth will never see the field unless somebody gets hurt.  Just how many starting quality wide receivers do you think a two-tight end offense needs?

This is annoying.  Why is everybody so eager to write off second year players in general?

The whole rebuilding plan was to draft a bunch of players, and then develop those drafted lower.  Why can't you just allow this to happen?  Just trust tendancies, talent, odds, and experience to produce utterly predictable results?

Talk about Jimmy Haslam being impatient jeez!

THIS JUST IN: Sashi traded Demario Davis to the Jets for safety Calvin Pryor.

Pryor is a candidate for both strong and free safety, or can play in a cover two.  He isn't very fast, but is very smart, with great anticipation.  He jumps routes and bullies receivers.

He was generally regarded as the second best safety in the 2014 draft (behind Ha Ha Clinton Dix).

Pryor disappointed with the Jets, but the hope is that the change of scenery and Gregg Williams can bring out the best in him in his fourth (contract) season.

Demario Davis was highly expendable, as the Browns are eyeball deep in linebackers (I mean here on this planet).

This was another terrific move to add a young veteran entry to the free safety derby.  Gregg Williams can use him regardless of who wins that race, because he certainly fits at strong safety as well.

At best, Pryor will start at free safety.  His "floor" will be quality depth at both safety slots.

Eggzellent!  If you can't draft or sign a free safety, collect the best undrafteds, sign veterans, trade expendables, and set up a Royal Rumble.  Whoever comes out on top just has to be pretty damn good!