Friday, June 30, 2017

Dumb and Smart Comments on the Cleveland Browns

It was nice to read this article on the media-manufactured Kizer starting game one frenzy.  The writer was more down on Kizer and his prospects than I am, but makes his case expertly.

Comparing the respective college stats of Kizer, Kessler, and Prescott did make Kizer look pretty bad, but I need to point out that Kizer's sample size was much smaller, and he's earlier in his development curve than the other two were when they were drafted.

...which makes this writer absolutely correct that Kizer probably won't be ready any time soon.

A couple morons in Chicago think that only Tom Brady could be good in Cleveland.  They differed on Laveon Bell.  Dumb thought Belle could be good, but dumber feels he couldn't.

This goes to show you how utterly stupid NFL players can be.  PFF just projected the 2017 Browns offensive line as the second best in the NFL.  The Browns running backs averaged 4.9 ypc last season (Guess that means Crow and Duke are better than Belle huh?)

You people need to pay attention.  These imbeciles are allowed to vote!  (I think they're registered in Dementia-or maybe it's Oblivia someplace like that.)

And talk about glass houses!  The Browns are going to Chicago in September.  We'll see if Crow, Duke, and ? can somehow make it to the end of the game (You know, with that coaching and that offensive line?  Looks grim, huh?)

Bring barf bags and mops.  This won't be pretty.

Peter Smith wrote a typically outstanding piece on fullback Dan Vitale, and how he might fit into Hue Jackson's plans.

Peter thinks Hue Jackson is determined to use a power blocking scheme (as in not zone).  I think he's assuming too much there, because Crow thrives in zone, zone is best for Tretter, Thomas, and both tight ends, and the other guys can do as well in either scheme.

Jackson is not a blockhead.  I believe he favors the power scheme, but will use whatever works best.

A few notes on this:  The power scheme is more complex than zone.  Chemistry/synchronization takes longer.  The idea is to predesignate a gap (or area) and blast everything out of the running back's way.

Crowell is a classic zone running back.  Give him the ball on an angle to the right or the left, let him cruise a few steps to see what happens, pick a hole and dart through it.  He's not nearly as effective when ordered to "go here" and simply get there afap. Zone backs thrive on chaos.

However, most teams use both power and zone blocking, and no doubt so will the Browns (especially since it will keep defenses guessing).  As Pete points out, with Zeitler and (probably) Coleman, there's definitely some man-on-man power here.

But I digress:  I have to admit, I had no idea that Vitale was as talented as he is.  Pete did a much better job scouting him than the guys who wrote the other reports I'd read.  Cliff notes:

4.6 at 239 lbs.  Averaged over 10 yards per-catch (excellent for a fullback); and a reliable, prolific downfield receiver.

As Peter points out, however, so far he's not any kind of lead-blocker, and unless he becomes one, he's a gmf.

If the theories I expressed in my last post are correct, the Browns could carry up to five backs on the 53-man roster, and run a lot of 22 groupings.  If Vitale is serious and dedicated to becoming a viable lead-blocker (which hint-hint he had better be), he could be a big part of that.

Vitale is a shade under 6'1", and is as much an H-back as a fullback.  Peter calls him (potentially) a classic West Coast fullback.

It's almost spine-chilling to think about.  You know Hue.  He'll have this guy lining up in the slot, on top of everything else.  Defensive coordinators could figure he's probably not going to take a handoff, but not much else.  I mean, you could still get a 5-wide, with what amounts to three tight ends!

He's another monkey wrench, too:  Front seven guys can read zone from power blocking quickly on runs, but coverage players read the backfield first.  If they see Vitale moving forward with a running back behind him, they take angles to get them behind that fullback.

Well, if it's play-action, they're screwed, because both these players are receiving threats, and the 239 lb one is downfield first.  If everybody else is zone-blocking, Vitale will still try to blast somebody, but the running back might not be anywhere near him when he makes his cut.

Vitale could become an excellent pass-protector, as well as a lead-blocker, and has the power to stop or reroute defensive ends or big linebackers.

Man, just think about the run, though: With two tight ends and a fullback, that's eight big blockers slamming into people and man, that's scary!

There is one irrefutable fact of life in football:  Power trumps finesse.  If you know we're going to run, and you still can't stop us, you are going to lose.  You will wear down, and get weaker and slower, and it will get worse and worse as the game goes on.

...but of course the Browns desperately need to fill the glaring need at wide receiver...chuh.

The other three AFC North beat reporters weighed in on which Browns quarterback should start game one.  As usual, Hensley (Ratbirds) was the dumbest.  He declared that Kessler couldn't push the ball, and points to Osweiler's win/loss record.

No Cleveland Brown rookie or second year player dares fall asleep with Hensley around, because they're libel to wake up when the dirt starts hitting the coffin he stuffed them in.

Jeremy Fowler (Steelers) was insightful and smart, as usual, and pointed to Kessler, citing his superior accuracy and discretion.

Awhile ago, an unnamed NFL team "official" bashed the Browns for paying a guard (Zietler) as much as they did.  I kind of shrugged that off at the time, but I have more info now:

Zietler is no longer the highest paid guard.  Five left tackles (so far) make more than he does.  At the time he signed, his contract was around 3% more than the next highest paid guard.  The salary cap has just increased significantly (notice Carr got 25 mil/year "It wasn't about the money" just...shut up Derrick).

Perhaps more importantly, center and guard is more important for Hue Jackson's Browns than they are for other teams.

He intends to run the ball often and frequently.  He does not (at this time) have an elite quarterback.  He appears poised to use two tight ends, and Joe Thomas is his left tackle.

Defenses will focus on stopping the run first, and forcing the team to pass.  That means run (inside) blitzes, to reroute or blow up runs, and get quick heat on a young qb who is supposed to get rid of the ball in under 2.3 seconds, and isn't a dangerous scrambler.

The interior linemen are more important here than elsewhere, and Zietler's experience in a Hue Jackson system was also worth a small premium.

Just as players can be idiots, so can nameless NFL team officials.  -Thunk!- (that was the mike I just dropped)  (Don't ask me why I needed a microphone to write a blog).

I just found out I was spelling Ricardo Louis's last name right in the first place.  After reading about 3 articles that all spelled it Lewis, I went back and changed all my references to his name to that spelling.

I'm not doing that again.  Sorry.

Anyway Al Saunders omitted obligitory "he's just got to" discaimer in his summation of how Louis has looked to him this preseason, and this means more than most think.  This big, strong, fast guy is one of the many reasons the Browns ignored wide receiver this offseason

Slow news week.  That's all I got.

.......okbye















Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Why Hue Jackson Should Run "22" Package in 2017.

Peter Smith seems to like Matthew Dayes more than the bigger, stronger, faster Rodney Atkinsonfield III.  I respect Pete too much to debate that point, but, as he often does, he provoked my thoughts.

(Well--that and people fretting over wide receiver depth, raving about Seth DeValve and Isaiah Crowell...)

Everybody knows that with Gregg Williams, you can throw the book out.  He plays safeties at linebacker, runs wierd fronts, etc.

The thing is, why does everybody expect Hue Jackson to stick to "the book" in only the second year of his reign?

Hue was the Head Coach of the Raiders a long time ago, but he inherited the bulk of his talent, so you really can't look at that.  As an offensive coordinator, he's only made the most of what he's been given, and these players included terrific running backs, wide receivers, and one lethal tight end.

Don't look there, either.  As I've repeated ad nauseum, Hue Jackson only got a strong voice in personnel matters before his inaugural 2016 season, and couldn't really use all of it last season, as several ot those players were rookie projects.

Well, I think that Hue might just get extra-wierd this season.

I've already predicted a two-tight end base offense, but Hue might up the ante and run a bunch of 22 personnel (two tight ends AND two running backs.)

During training camp, Gregg Williams will force him to give it a protracted test drive, as he tries size and power vs Williams' speed.

First off, that makes what Peter wrote about Dayes as "Duke Insurance" make more sense.  

Here's what I mean:  The offensive side of the 53-man roster rounds out at around 25.  Teams carry between 7 and 9 offensive linemen.  We'll say 8 here.

All carry two, and some carry three, quarterbacks.  I'll indulge and make it 3 (11 so far).

Here's where it gets interesting.  It's sort of considered unthinkable for a team to carry more than three tight ends, but if Hue is building around tight ends, he could carry four (15).

And if he is determined to run a lot of two-back, he could carry 5 running backs (including an actual blocking fullback).

That's 20.  We got room left for five wide receivers, although I think he might go with four or even three sometimes, and let Williams load up a little extra.

Now, if you're saying "Where's the big plays?  Where's the speed?", you don't grok football.  This is all about forcing opposing defenses to play people they don't want to play, keeping some of their better little guys on the bench, and then exploiting more numerous and bigger mismatches.

...and about being unique in the NFL.

Call it the "Belichick" formula.  Get it?

This gets really deep, so I'll just point a few things out before I go on:

1: As amazing as this sounds, all Browns tight ends will be expected to block in-line, as well as act like huge wide receivers. (Believe it or not, that's what tight ends used to do.  Honest!)

2: Duke, Dayes, and the 6'1" Atkinson can line up not only in the slot, but at wide receiver. (Yes, Atkinson can do that too, dammit).  Crowell has become an accomplished slot guy.  Any of the four is a dangerous outlet receiver.

3: Why were the Browns reluctant to meet Terrelle Pryor's asking price?  Why did they release Hawkins, and otherwise stand pat with what they had at wide receiver?  

4: Which team in the NFL runs a 22?
4a: Which personnel groups are NFL defenses built to stop?

Now, the disclaimers: 22 is unlikely in third and long, and less likely coming from behind with time running out.  Even in my rather extreme scenario, I wouldn't expect to see it more than 40% of the time.

Also, matchups matter, so from week to week you'd see more or less of the two-back.

Now, the Browns might surprise the Steelers with this in week one, but after that, opposing coaches would see it coming, and game-plan for it.

But that's a tall order, because it's a physical, yet balanced attack.  How do you match up?

Inside the box, 22 personnel demands a base defense with four defensive backs, but this Browns 22 doesn't fit in any box.

Ok, it's just impossible to match up with, ok?  It can't be done.

DeValve and Njoku, like a bunch of other lethal receiving tight ends in today's NFL are pretty much uncoverable (which is why every NFL team is grabbing them).  But the Browns now have TWO of them, see?  And they can both BLOCK (no really honest!  Like Mike Ditka used to ya know?  I swear it's true!)

As for Duke and Mayes, I just have to pick at ma man Peter Smith a little here:  As wide receivers, most corners and some safeties can cover them.  Peter is assuming a strong safety or linebacker is on them, but this assumes a conventional offense with two actual wide receivers, and not even two tight ends.  Pete over-assumes here.

I told you this would get deep...

Okay-okay when that huddle breaks and your two running backs and two tight ends leave it and line up, I'll give you eight guesses about where they'll line up (in what formation) and would offer 2:1 odds that you would still be wrong.

The base "threat" is an "elephant" formation, with a defacto seven-man offensive line and a lead-blocker.  OR, on the other end of the scale, you could face a defacto FIVE-wide (not sure it's legal-one receiver might need to be off the line).

Regardless of what formation shows up (including the elephant set), ALL of the skill people can still catch passes, so you can't even count on it not being a pass.

If it's Gregg Williams (or me) on the other side of this, the best solution might just be a "big" dime, with both extra DB's being safeties (ok well in this case we will call Kirksey a "safety" but most teams can't do this).

You man-up your best defensive back on the one true wide receiver (crossing your fingers he can stay with Britt, Coleman, or (ahem) Gordon), hold a safety deep middle, (concede short routes),  cover everywhere else in zone...

...deeper and deeper:  It depends on down and distance, the score, time, and exactly how the offense lines up too.  But the "cover" corner on the wide receiver and the deep safety should be universal...hmm...

So should the zone coverage everywhere else.  You simply can't man up on Njoku or DeValve, even with a Peppers or a Kirksey or a Collins.  Zone lets you set up road-blocks for crossing routes, and lets your guys turn and run upfield when they attack seams.

Okay-okay zone neutralizes West Coast timing routes, which are intended to get the ball to slanters and crossers in-stride and let them keep going.  You can't do that when there's a human road-block standing there waiting to decapitate you.

The offensive adjustment to zone is for the receiver to "sit down" (stop), and the (smart) quarterback to hit him right there, on time; throwing the ball before he stops.

This is why my proposed 22-heavy offense wouldn't light the NFL up.  The zone coverage not only minimizes RAC-yards, but gives coverage guys chances to anticipate and jump routes, nail receivers who are standing still when they catch the ball, and also lets the coverage guys watch the backfield, so they'll see the run coming, and charge the line unblocked.

On the other hand, zones can be "flooded" (deliberately) if a QB has enough time to wait for it, and can be burned deep.  But not often.

...but an offense can march up and down the field with 4-9 yard passes, and these tight ends are seam-busters, because they can run straight at and by the human road block, forcing him to turn and try to man up on him.

Now I'll stick with Gregg Williams here: He's sending five against my hypothetical Jackson offense, and the blitzer is usually coming inside.

This is kind of mathematical: The two tight ends (not to mention Big Joe) can at least slow down a built-in edge-rush, but when you come between the tackles, the only guys that can stop you are offensive linemen or a running back.

In the real world, I'm not sure if the best offensive line in history could slow down five real passrushers, so the running back has to block, and can't catch.  Meanwhile, if it IS a run, the blitzer has a 25% chance of blowing it up in the backfield, and a better chance of getting into "hot pursuit" of anything outside or off-tackle.

Still, I love the 22 thing.

Okay-okay everybody accepts that Gregg Williams doesn't sweat labels ("positions"), and just wants the best 11 players on the field amap.  Why do so many of you think offense is different, or that Hue Jackson is a blockhead?

Who are the best skill players on Hue's offense?

I'll list them in order, objectively:

Disclaimer: Some tough calls here: Coleman hasn't proven anything yet but has astronomical talent.  It's tough to balance running backs against receivers.  I'll err towards yardage and TDs to try to be fair, but as my base have to use talent, relative to other NFL players, at specific positions:

1: TE Njoku
1a: TE DeValve
2: RB Crowell
3: WR Coleman
4: RB Johnson
5: WR Britt (tough call here: Britt is massively underrated, and could rightfully rank above both Johnson and Coleman).
6: WR Louis (yeah that's right I said it!)
After this, it's in the weeds with Adkinson, Holtz, and then Dayes.  That's two running backs and two tight ends though, ok?

A couple notes here: Randall Telfer is an old-school tight end who is a really good blocker, but also a possession receiver.  You don't split him out or call him an H-Back, but he's a solid player.  TJ Holtz is like Gary Barnidge.  He has more physical talent than Gary did.  We'll see what he does with it, but don't sleep on him.

Anyway, based on this (admittedly subjective) list, if you wanted to field your best 5 skill players amap, what do you see?

Two tight ends, two running backs, and one wide receiver.

Where did I go wrong?

Obviously, Cody Kessler is the best quarterback to run this, zone-blocking would help a great deal, and it helps a lot that PFF rates this new iteration of the Browns offensive line as the second best in the NFL.






Sunday, June 25, 2017

Collins, Williams, Nacua, Speed, and the Browns

I've kidded around about Jamie Collins playing free safety for Gregg Williams, but as Mac Robinson points out, it's not as funny as all that.

Mac points to his combine numbers, which he compares to those of the other safeties.  For sure, Collins is faster than some starting free safeties.  

However, Mac sort of discounts Jamie's 3-cone drill as an outlier.  By the way, at 7.1, it's the same as Terrelle Pryor's was, which is impressive for a 6'5", 250 pounder.

...but pretty bad for a free safety.  The 3-cone is more important for coverage guys in general.  Collins starting at free safety is not going to happen, because every defense would exploit his (comparatively) slow change of direction with their fastest wide receivers.

Situationally, you have to know that Gregg Williams will happily put the big guy back there to screw up offenses.  That would happen vs two tight end and two-back offenses, when the front is creating a lot of pressure, and when an offense has a weak quarterback and/or unreliable speed outside...that is, when he can come downhill and ruin people's days; when it's unlikely that he will be challenged by deep speed.

But the linebacker/ss hybrid player is a different story.  Collins could end up doing some of that for sure!

Again, skip the labels.  Jamie will be one of the 11 guys, and do all kinds of stuff.  So will Kirksey btw, who is actually better in coverage anyway.

If you have an hour or so to kill, Ezweave ("Ez Like Sunday Morning"--a very smart, insightful writer), covers every move of Sashi Browns's very short carreer as boss.  Anybody can do that, but Ez's comments are what makes this a great article.

I admit right here that I haven't read all of it myself yet.  I just skimmed over it and put the link here because this guy never lets me down.

MKC's "Hey Mary Kay" was pretty good this week, and she explained why she was giving DeShone Kizer a decent shot at starting game one.  He's learning the playbook faster than expected, and she mentions his improved mechanics and arm talent.

She's right and wrong.  David Lee was as negative as he was positive about Kizer.  He sometimes did it right, and sometimes screwed up, essentially playing against a clock and air.

Like many pundits, Mary Kay doesn't really get what "arm talent" means, either.  It does mean velocity and deep passing yes, but it also means short and intermediate accuracy.  If one quarterback makes a couple "oo!  Ahh!" deep throws and an equal number of clunkers, and another gets no "oos" or "ahs" but moves his team up and down the field, he is better, period.

Now, another writer says PFF's ranking of Kessler right behind Bady under pressure is "taken out of context", because Brady threw 435 passes, while Kessler only threw 195.

...Huh?  Where's the context cutoff?  225?  300?  Where will we be setting the bar next week?  Context?  Browns offensive line vs Pats offensive line.  Browns receivers vs Pats receivers.  Geezer vet vs rookie.  Look up "context" in your Funk and Wagnall, Einstein I'm so sick of this...

Dawgs By Nature's Chris Pokorny points to Kessler's benching last season over his reluctance to throw downfield as a reason to doubt him.  That's ok, but he piled on by talking about his deep inaccuracy.

Kessler didn't throw enough deep passes for anybody to make that judgement.  Jackson himself did not see what Chris thought he saw, as he publicly cited Kessler's reluctance to go deep as the reason for his benching.

Here again, people are seeing what they expect to see.  Before you know it, one overthrow or underthrow becomes the whole story.

But Mary Kay is right that Kizer has (per Lee) sometimes been really impressive, and his arrow is pointing up like (insert metaphore here).

And she's right that if he looks really good in preseason against real pressure and his mechanics don't break down it wouldn't be dumb to start him game one.  I just need to point out that if he's not indeed better than Kessler, he should not.

She's right to point out to a clueless question that Tim Couch had a crappy line and no help, and want to add that despite that he had a very good rookie season, and only went downhill when his chronic tendinitis wrecked his throwing arm.

The Browns have a lot of talent surrounding their quarterback this season.  That means that Kizer--when he's ready--has a chance to succeed early.

She is wrong about needing to get Kizer in as soon as possible so they can evaluate him, and make a decision heading into the next draft.

They don't need that much.  I'm sure he'll get at least 40% of the preseason reps, and he'll play some in garbage time, and could well take over after the bye and get the last six games (even if Kessler is actually still better---which he might well be dammit).

That's a lot of tape, and this is Hue Jackson.  All they need to see is consistency and solid mechanics.

And I gotta tell ya:  I  think that by the end of the 2017 season, the Browns will have one too many starting quarterbacks that other teams will want.  

With respect to the upcoming crop of quarterbacks in next year's draft, two or even three of which might project better than Kizer, the Browns won't go out of their way to nab one.

Remember: Hue Jackson made Andy Dalton technically the best quarterback in the NFL.  No mystery.  Look at the other ten guys he played with!  Hue keeps telling everybody who will listen, the quarterback is the most important player yes, but it's still a team sport.  (Of course, nobody listens.)

So if, coming up on the next draft, Sashi and Hue see a 9.5 and a 10 in the draft display window, but they think they have a 9 (and a Dalton) already here, they won't waste any draft picks ok?  (Well ok unless somebody slides to them).

Back to Mary Kay and Kizer:

Natural boxers are rare.  It's not natural for primates.  We are built to grapple and stuff.  We instinctively separate our feet for leverage, lunge, etc.  

That's why the best trainers don't let their baby boxers anywhere near the ring until they master balance, defense, proper technique, combinations, etc...as in, they do it automaticly and reflexively.

First, individual punches.  Next, 2 punches.  Next, 3-punch combinations; shoulders here, feet here, knees bent etc. Ok?

Then, they spar.  Baby steps.  The good trainers, who really care, put their experienced guys in and make sure they hold back a little.  Now the baby boxer is getting punched and shoved off-balance, and we find out if he loses it and starts getting wild and lunging etc.

If he doesn't, then you put him in with another baby boxer and let them have at it for real.  If the mechanics don't break down here, when a bell gets rung, now you bring back your seasoned vets, and tell them to beat the crap out of the rookie, and see what you get.

Baby steps.  Acid tests.  The most important thing here, Mary Kay?  Mechanics.  DeShone Kizer is starting out well behind where Cody Kessler (a four year starter in four different offensive systems) was as a rookie.  Kessler wasn't perfect, but comparing these two mechanicly is a joke.  Kessler entered the NFL with a fairly solid foundation (it helps that he is more compact).

Kessler is Dalton.  Kizer is...uhh...ok baby Brett Favre ok?  (Favre wasn't ripe yet either, coming out of college).

In other news, I was a little surprised that Gregg Williams worked Briean Boddy-Calhoun outside, but maybe I shouldn't have been.  He's already proven himself at nickel cornerback, which is substantially pretty simple in any defense (raw instincts, reflexes, quickness, and speed).

Williams also, as I've mentioned, runs more zone than other DC's, and in zone Calhoun's size is less important.  Calhoun is very quick and fast, has great instincts, and is aggressive.  

Gregg Williams makes the most of what he has.

As it stands, I expect Calhoun to again be the nickel corner vs microbe slot guys.  A lot of teams are phasing these guys out, though, so the nickel role is changing.

Outside corner is Calhoun's second position.  He's too small to play press/man, but he could be terrific in zone, especially since he's very agressive and opportunistic.

Well ok: He could also play man vs a microbe like Taylor Gabriel better than anybody else, but that's a rare matchup outside.  Generally, I'd expect him to be the second backup outside.

I love these undrafted guys, and Calhoun is a perfect example of why.  I guarantee you, Gregg Williams loves him. He's not going to be a "starter", but he's a top microbe-matchup guy, and a backup base corner.

Williams loves speed.  Speed penetrates, converges, and stops big plays short of the end zone. 

Most pundits don't get this:  Gregg has a ton of speed to work with here, throughout this defense.

Garrett and Ogbah clocked under 4.76, Rodney Nassibfield is just barely slower, and (except for Shelton, who is still remarkably quick for his massive size, and Jamie Meder, who is a run-stopper and his backup), the 300-plus pound DT's are all pretty fast for their positions.

That's just the defensive line.  

Jumping back past Kirksey, Collins, Peppers etc to free safety, I'm not ready to write Campbell off yet, and strongly disagree with another writer that Kai Nacua is a longshot to make this team.

Campbell ran 4.5, and Nacua is faster; Nacua is fast even for a cornerback.

Kai Nacua is listed on the Ourlads version of the Browns' depth chart at 217 lbs, and that's probably more accurate than the 205 lbs you'll see in the link.  He's an interception machine and an experienced, proven free safety.  

I'm telling you right now, this undrafted free agent is probably THE top contender in the Free Safety Derby, let alone to make this team. Here is smarter stuff on him from the Watercooler.

I guess he tried to make big hits and blew some tackles, but that's an easy fix (especially with Gregg Williams).  Third highest sparq rating for safeties in this draft, and nobody can figure out why he went undrafted.

...how can you give him a 30% chance of making the final roster?  Anyway as long as I'm sticking my neck out, I hereby predict that Kai Nacua will be the starting free safety before the end of 2017 (if not on opening day).

No doubt Mary Kay saw him practicing with the third team (with Peppers and Garrett among others) and flushed him.

Where was Calhoun this time last year?  Oh yeah I think on another team, waiting to get cut.  Bet he was on the third team there too, Mary Kay.

Hey do you think Peppers or Garrett will make the team?  They never worked with the first team like Kizer did a little.

Wait--Osweiler got some first team reps too!  Did Hogan get any?  We need to get a total.  I say anybody who got more than half as many as Kessler in minicamp is the starter, since Hue Jackson obviously must hate Kessler right?

It's getting so deep...pass me the snorkel wow.














Thursday, June 22, 2017

Rodney Kesslerfield and the Cleveland Browns

I'm pretty toasted that this is the first time I've heard about Corey Coleman's involvement in a vicious New Year's Eve assault that put one of his neighbors in the hospital, and I'm even angrier that nobody else seems to care about this.

CliffNotes:

1: Scuffle breaks out in Coleman's condo lobby.  Corey was present, his brother and a friend.  The other guy was by himself.  This was broken up by several other people.

That's fine, but:

2: The Coleman trio FOLLOWS the guy into the parking lot and beats him down.  Ruptured eardrum, unconscious, ribs, other injuries.  Coleman helps drag him out of the lot.

Now, I don't know if Coleman called 911 for him, or tried to stop it, or laid a hand on the guy, or what, but right now he looks like a subhuman scumbag to me, ok?

Here's a more general statement:  even chimps, apes, and wolves have more honor than these punks.  They fight one-on-one.  The only time they gang up on somebody is when it's an alpha male who's just so nasty he drives everybody nuts.

I'm sick of two generations of cowards.  This isn't war.  If you've got to fight over silly chickenshit, fight fair (and don't come back with your gang or a gun if you lose dammit what happened to America?)

Anyway, I'm with the victim, and want this resolved.  Corey is innocent until proven guilty, but even if he just stood there and didn't try to stop it, he should be in jail, and sure as hell out of football.

And I hope the guy they did that too sues their asses off!

I'll leave that alone until I hear more.

Andrea Hangst has either learned a lot more about football or is one of those who steal my insights here.  (The Bleacher Report was the first publication I sent this link to in my effort to get a real byline).

Anyway, she wrote a really good article on Kessler, blocking, holding the ball too long, and run-support.  Anybody who reads this knows all that stuff, of course, but Andrea digs up some actual statistics.

Indeed, Cody Kessler led the NFL in time of possession.  As in, he possessed the ball without throwing it longer than an offensive line could reasonably be expected to protect him.

Crowell led in yards-after-contact (I hadn't known that thanx Andrea).

Andrea's question was, can Cody Kessler take advantage of the upgraded blocking?

Unlike many goobers, Andrea actually mentions how things went to hell when Bitonio went down, but she completely skips John Greco.  Greco was an excellent guard, and filled in at center.  

Rango filled in okay, but not as well as either of the starters, and I can't remember who the other guy was, and doubt that he's even still on the team!

And she should have mentioned how bad Erving was at center--but can't blame her for not wanting to beat that dead horse.

What she did best was to point out that the Browns have a running back who led in yards after contact, who himself will benefit greatly from the additions of Zeitler and Tretter, and take a lot of heat off the quarterback.

She did point out Kessler's taste for pigskin, but should have assumed that he would get rid of it quicker this season, now that he has a year under his belt in the same system, and will have the two freak tight ends and Britt to aim at, and since he was quicker in college.

Still, I'm starved for intelligent analysis, and I'll take Bitonio, the running game, Kessler not getting rid of the damn ball...even if there are omissions.  You get a solid B, Andrea!

Especially since you're not eager to write Kessler off, like everybody else is!

Mary Kay somehow manages to hear what she expects to hear out of Wiley and declare rookie DeShone Kizer closing in on Kessler already.  Meanwhile, Pat Kirwan has Osweiler pencilled in.  You know, anybody but Kessler?

Hey Cody are you reading this?  I hope you read this and the rest of the stuff people are saying about you.

Like Hue doesn't like you because you don't throw long bombs (and your smarts and accuracy-especially under pressure don't matter).  As if your arm wasn't better than Sipe's, Montana's, Pennington's, or Ogden's before you got stronger and stabilized your mechanics.

As if having a stronger running game and big receivers with huge catch radiae won't matter.  As if you won't even be as good as you WERE as a ROOKIE...

If I were Kessler, I'd be internalizing all this crap.  And I bet he's doing exactly that.

Kessler's mechanics won't break down under pressure.  He can step here or there like Brady, and duck like Sipe.  I'm amazed that nobody else (except PFF) gives Kessler any credit for what he's already done!

I'm sorry I can't let this go: Cody Kessler is obviously Hue Jackson's front-runner here, and Hue DOES NOT PRIORITIZE A STRONG ARM over accuracy or decision-making!  He never has.  

Who was his last quarterback, Mary Kay?  Andy Dalton.  Where tf do you get this mad bomber crap from?  Yeah, as Head Coach of the Raiders, he made Jason Campbell look great, and made that dumb trade for Carson Palmer, but can't you even see what he did with Dalton?

Don't you see that Kessler is like Dalton?  

Here's the REAL deal, my crickets: DeShone Kizer is a massively talented PROJECT who needs a lot of work, and should absolutely not be rushed into action before he's been "reconditioned".

Osweiler is the "old veteran" who, as I have written here myself, could be a better version of the Denver Brock in this system, under Hue Jackson.

Cody Kessler completed 5% more passes per attempt than Denver Brock, as a rookie, on a much worse team.  His 80% competion percentage under pressure well...there it is...

By the way Andrea might have erred here: "Pressure" is defined as more than four passrushers, period.

Kessler is the smallest, and has the weakest arm.  He's also the best quarterback on this roster at this time, period.

I'll also say this, right now (mark it on your calenders):

Cody Kessler's floor is an average (top 20) NFL starting quarterback.  ...Ok a top 25 starter.  Definitely top 25.  Brian Hoyer.  Definitely Hoyer.

His cieling is Joe Montana, or at least Brian Sipe.  Hue will agree with Sashi and Paul on this: If Cody Kessler is the best quarterback, he should start (duh).

Got your hip-waders on?  Ok well if Cody Kessler kicks ass (again) this season with the Browns (and even if Kizer replaces him after game 10 or so), Sashi will be inundated with phone calls.

Kessler will have two years left on his rookie contract.  He'll be dirt-cheap.  He'll be a young veteran starter.  The offers Sashi will get could well include first round picks.

Otherwise, the Browns just keep him, and see if Kizer is ready to take his job...

Let the best man win.  

Nobody else can imagine this, because everyone else has stuffed Cody Kessler in their "career backup" box, and Kizer in their "franchise quarterback" box.

I don't use boxes, and right now Cody Kessler just plain looks better than DeShone Kizer, long as well as short-term.

Understand: Kizer does have great potential, and ultimately could be the better of the two.  But I've seen Kessler in real games.  Kizer has a lot to prove.

You guys get that?  DeShone Kizer has a lot more to prove than Cody Kessler does. Mary Kay?  Mary Kay?


Monday, June 19, 2017

Gregg Williams, a Slow News Week, and the Browns

I've scoured the web for Browns dumbassitude, and couldn't find much this time.  Sorry, cuz I know you like that vivisection stuff I do.

Here is a pretty good article on why Gregg Williams wants each defender to play two spots.

Williams said it best himself: (no quotes here, because I can't recall his exact words): When somebody gets hurt, the next best player steps in, but it doesn't neccessarily go by position.

My army of crickets already know all about this.  MKC, Pluto, and Grossi will realize it tomorrow or the next day...Redundancy Alert:

Williams also said that he tends to run five or more defensive backs in response to modern offenses.  He also said that opposing offenses are hesitant to try two-back sets against "that" because of how he can crowd the line and overwhelm the blockers.

Zinggg!  Right over almost everybody else's heads!  Most DC's jump at the chance to use a 4-3 or 3-4 base defense vs two running backs, but not Williamss.

This is partly the whole point of the linebacker/safety hybrid player, see?  This player is not a "sub", but just a guy who will line up at either position, depending on how the offense sets up.

It should surprise none of my crickets that Rodney Campbellfield and Rodney Kindredfield were playing both safety slots with the ones and twos.  Just like Pryor and Peppers (with the twos and threes so far), ALL have the physical tools Gregg wants to fill the SS or "linebacker" role (and that's four, for those who can't count).

Most fans are too stuck on "labels" to understand this.  Please pretend there are no labels.  Just players, ok?

Well, Derrick Kindred, for example, is an aggressive, hard-hitting tackler vs the run, with terrific range.  He was inconsistent in coverage in Ray Horton's scheme, which ***uses more man coverage vs tight ends than Williams defenses do...ahem...as a ROOKIE.

Here's a tough, hard-nosed player with agressiveness and speed.  He's overmatched by most tight ends in man (too short), but excels in zone (can jump routes, knock balls loose, or at least prevent YAC).  No match for offensive linemen or some tight ends who block him--

This matches the description of many 3-4 inside, and 4-3 WIL linebackers; all "run-and-hit" linebackers, ok?  

Well, Gregg Williams just realized that, per those specs, it hardly matters if a guy is 240 or 220 lbs, and that a "strong safety" could do that job BETTER than the bigger guy, because he is quicker and faster, and usually hits harder TOO!

So Derrick Kindred is very much in the mix to be one of Gregg Williams' top 7-8 defensive backs, even assuming that Jabrill Peppers, and maybe Pryor, pass him up on the depth chart.

Campbell is very similar, but is slightly taller and faster.  He has played free as well as strong (and two-deep) safety.  Kindred does not project well as a free safety, but Campbell has a shot there.

While Williams wants everybody to play two positions, Campbell can probably play three, and Williams will value this.

Going back to why Gregg Williams tends to stick with five "defensive backs" vs two running backs: He can cover the sneaky bastard who lines up in the slot, or can key the fullback and swarm the power-run...his guys are faster than the offense's guys.

Naturally, Gregg said that if the offense gets big, he has to get big (matchups),  but he generally prefers a combination of speed and agressiveness over trying to slug it out.

What Gregg didn't say was that, given his current personnel, he's got to run a four-man defensive front on almost every down.  His four-man front will tie up the five offensive linemen, and often a tight end or running back, on every single down (pass and run).

Then there's big Jamie Collins, and let's toss Kirksey in there, so who's going to block Kindred, Peppers, Pryor, Campbell, or whoever?  

See?

I'm thrilled that my man Rodney Shobertfield is getting his props and reps from the assistant coaches.  My crickets are not surprised.  However even I am a little surprised by how smart they're saying he is; ie not just calling the defense, but individually correcting linemen and defensive backs pre-snap.

This is a second-year player, already doing this, and it's exceptionally rare, even among old veterans.

It's also critical for a Gregg Williams defense, which delegates massively to one linebacker as a defensive quarterback.

It's going to be fun to watch how Williams fits Shobert in with Collins and Kirksey.

Well, Collins wants to play free safety, right?