Tuesday, March 29, 2016

That was Then. This is Now. That was Them. These aren't.

One article I couldn't read more than two sentences of began: "The Cleveland Browns are being run in a bizarre fashion".  This was fine.  Bizarre could apply.

"One which has kept them at the bottom of the league---" was idiocy.  Before I fled the page, I saw names like Jeff Garcia and Tim Couch.

None of this has anything whatsoever to do with any high level employee of this new organization.  Nor was Jimmy Haslam even the owner for most of it.

Specifically for this article, we all know that DePodesta and Brown are doing something new.  In fact, the majority of legitimate NFL experts expect it to fail because it defies their conventions.

And once again, this word "analytics" has confused everybody.  Pat Kirwan has a better grasp of it.  He describes it as analysis on a deeper level, as it integrates different categories in more complex formulae to arrive at more in-depth conclusions and projections.

I as a former military analyst have explained it in simpler terms in previous blogs, and won't belabor it here.  I suggest that when you hear or read the word "analytics", you think "analysis", because it's become like "utilize".  People think you're smarter when you tack on unnecessary syllables.

DePodesta is more than a numbers geek.  He has been hired as a business consultant in various industries.  He's what used to be called an efficiency expert.  He's regarded so highly by so many captains of industry because, unlike a geek, he is highly creative, and restructures more than tweaks.

That's what is happening here.  It's quite possible that when Mitchell Schwartz turned down 7mil/year, DePodesta advised Brown to write him off.

That wasn't a numbers thing.  That may well have been an effort to change a pattern.  Real analysts look for patterns.  This pattern is: If you are a Cleveland Brown, you either want to escape, or to gouge the team in order to stay.

That's not good.  It reflects an attitude that is unwelcome.  Yes, the team is currently near the bottom of the NFL barrel, but this is a new front office.  They just hired the best and most popular head coach candidate, who in turn hired seasoned, proven assistants.

Schwartz was young enough to participate in a resurgence, but was trying to extort more money.  This isn't helpful.  Paul may have told Sashi "We want smart players with character.  We don't want mercenaries.  We can't have agents thinking they can extort us, or nobody will ever sign a market value extension."

See how Hue Jackson aggressively defends Brown?  He's all-in.  He gets it.  He's also got a strong voice in it.  He can't stop smiling.

He's also right about not losing even more than thirteen games.  Guys like Andrew Hawkins and three offensive linemen aren't nearly as bad as people outside the organization think.

It's irrefutable that the Browns did take a step back in free agency.  Center and right tackle won't be as good.  Wide receiver won't be as explosive.  The new safety probably won't get as many interceptions.

But the replacements aren't bad players.  The step back wasn't nearly as huge as is being portrayed.  Unlike most of you, Hue is acutely aware of Terrelle Pryor.  He's not counting on anything, including Josh Gordon, at this point, but doesn't see a bare cupboard either.

He says the Browns need to address wide receiver, but you need to hear the rest of what he says: Gordon fits his profile, as does Pryor.  He simply doesn't have Gordon back yet, and hasn't seen Pryor running against coverage in 2016 yet.

He mentioned not just Hawkins, but the other microbes, as helpful, and unlike everybody else likes Hartline too.

What he's talking about is a true X-receiver.  Pryor won't be ready, and Gordon isn't here yet.  But he can't stop smiling, because he has TWO of them on-deck, whereas the majority of teams, including playoff teams, don't even have one.

Trent Dilfer describes RG3 as an "either-or" quarterback to date.  He will look at two targets, and then improvise.  That seems accurate.

I'm just guessing here, but maybe Hue believes he can get him to that third read.  It's not a giant leap.  Maybe he has a unique way of compelling a quarterback to throw to a spot on-time, too (anticipation).

As I've said before, that's very, very hard for some quarterbacks.  It requires a lot of trust in the receiver to get there, and results in an interception half the time when he isn't.

It's worse for a guy who's under fire by coaches and fans alike.  But it's purely psychological.  This is "throwing with anticipation" and "throwing receivers open", and is one of RG's biggest problems.

He has the accuracy and the arm.  He's not that far away, and this reclamation might look easier to Hue Jackson than it does on paper.

And Hue is part of this team.  Call him their "intuition".  An analyst will rely on a source without cross-checking or confirmation when that source proves reliable over time.

Analysis is divorced from ego.  Sashi and Paul probably argued with Hue about Kaepernick and RG3, but were persuaded by him, despite being unable to understand it themselves.

This is why we call them "assets".  Hue is smarter than them in some ways.  They will exploit that.

By now, we probably all know who is calling the quarterback shots here.  Those who read this blog also know that Hue might well be content with Wentz or Goff, because he feels he can turn either of them into a franchise guy.

Those who say that if somebody else grabs Wentz, the Browns might go best available aren't thinking much.

While I myself threw Paxton Lynch (after a trade-down) out there, it's still a lot more likely that they'd simply take Goff.  In fact, I just don't understand how Goff went from the top tier to not good enough in so many minds.

Franchise quarterbacks don't grow on trees.  Some of the same people who bash the Browns for picking the wrong quarterbacks LOW in the first round think if it's not Wentz, they should just wait for 2017 or take some guy later on!

And the real experts beg to differ with the fan base on the quality of these quarterbacks.  Jim Miller ranks Wentz and Goff right with Winston and Mariota.  Newheisel compares Goff to Montana, and Mayock compares Wentz to Luck.  Cosell feels that Goff is a better prospect than Winston was.

And now, if it's not Wentz, it's nobody?  Good grief!

And that was Then, this is now: The Browns haven't drafted at the top of the first round before.  They haven't had the chance to draft a Mariota or a Winston before.  This is different than drafting McCoy in the third, or Manswell or some other consolation prize twenty third.

Why can't you see the difference?




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