Sunday, March 27, 2016

Paxton Lynch and the Cleveland Browns

After the Browns signed RG3, some conclusion-leapers assumed that this meant that the Browns didn't like Goff or Wentz.  This, of course, was dumb.

Those who read my most recent literary masterpiece know that Hue's clear propensity for dual-threat, athletic quarterbacks, combined with recent free agent non-moves, may well indicate the type of offense he wants to run.

More than that, but Hue's belief that he could fix Colin Kaepernick, and that he will fix RG3, might also mean that he believes he can coach up any quarterback with the raw skills and traits he needs.

That got me to checking out the "other guy": Paxton Lynch.

Lynch, I learned, is largely self-taught as a quarterback.  This makes you wonder what Hue Jackson could turn him into.

It also says a lot about Lynch himself: This guy is pretty damn good, and he did that on his own!

He'll be even bigger than Cam Newton before he's full grown, and is a former running back.  He's not nearly as fast as Cam, but can really move all the same.

Some analysts saw a red flag in a putrid performance in a Bowl game:  The other team's defense managed to take away his screen passes, and once he'd fallen behind, play-action was no longer effective.

This was indeed alarming, and is the biggest reason he is not considered on the same tier as Goff or Wentz.

Still, this was an outlier in a pattern which otherwise showed steady improvement throughout his college career.  This game is not to be minimized, because it was for all the marbles.  Scouts look harder at these games to see how a quarterback handles adversity and bright lights.

The big question is, how does Hue Jackson see it?  It was a big game, but still only one game.

Another reason Lynch is below the top tier is that he's still a work in progress, and will take longer to develop.

The most important reason is that nobody can be certain he has the mental hardware to set protections, make multiple pre and post-snap reads, and consistently make correct decisions under the gun.

But if you check out criticisms of RG3, you find clues:  RG tends to hold the ball.  He hasn't thrown with anticipation (ie insists on seeing that a receiver is open rather than trusting him to make the correct break at the correct time.)

This didn't seem to bother Hue Jackson.  Hue seems to think he can fix anything.

Second overall is way too high to draft a Paxton Lynch, and it's almost a given that if the Browns stay there, Goff or Wentz are much safer bets.

But if Hue indeed likes Lynch, it could make a trade DOWN more likely.

That gets dangerous when your target is a quarterback, especially when he soon becomes the consensus best one left on the board.

The Niners draft seventh overall, and need a quarterback.  Unlike the Browns, they don't have a McCown or a Griffin (or a Davis, for that matter), so a project like Lynch is less than ideal.

A trade up to number two gets them Goff or Wentz, and the Browns could ignore the bashing to "overdraft" Lynch seventh overall.

The risk is that somebody else might trade up to sixth to steal Lynch.

However, the Browns have RG3 now, right?  They need a lot of other stuff, right?  And Lynch is predicted to go late in the first, or even in the second, right?  Hue not attending Lynch's Pro Day ices the cake.  (That could be deception, or blow my whole theory to hell).

As for taking Lynch seventh, screw the bashers:  If you think a guy can be a franchise guy, you take him, no matter what, period.  If he is who you think he is, he's worth it, and the rest is crap.

But he'd have to stay on the bench for two or three years?  No. People tend to overstate everything.  This is why a 6'5", 240 lb. 4.4 ex-quarterback isn't even considered a factor at wide receiver.

Lynch has mechanical flaws, but did start for three seasons in college.  He shouldn't start as a rookie, but in the type of offense Hue Jackson appears to be building, he might be ready by season two.

All this is spitballing, of course.  Who knows?

But for those who think that a team in its earliest stages of an overhaul, playing in the AFC North, needs a "pro ready" rookie quarterback, you really need to rethink that.

They need the quarterback with the most upside, period.  He will be ready when the team is ready.

And Lynch could indeed have more upside even than Carson Wentz.  I don't know---ask Hue about that.  But if Hue thinks so, don't count Lynch out.

Lynch and another second rounder, and maybe another second in 2017...five slots, ya no?

In this article in Dawg Pound Daily, beat writers from the other three cities in the AFC North were asked whether or not their respective teams would be worried about RG3.

The Baltimore writer was the most dismissive.  I think that's funny, because the Ravens suck worse than the Browns, and his team should worry about Hue Jackson's Browns with any quarterback.

The Bengals writer stunned me by defending RG3, saying he got a raw deal, and would come back strong.

Criticisms of him are legit, but dated.  Every NFL quarterback, including Micheal Vick, Wilson, and Newton need to throw from the pocket, at least sometimes.

It took Vick a long time to get there.  It took Newton a long time, too, only he was allowed to run around until he did.  But they did learn it.  It will never be what they do best, but each can now be trusted in the pocket.

Nothing says that RG3 has not or will not master the pocket, especially with Hue Jackson, and maybe Josh McCown, helping him out.

It does look like Hue will go pistol and read-option a lot though, and RG is already all over that.

The Ravens guy should be afraid.  Very afraid.


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