Thursday, March 31, 2016

RG3 Analysis of Analysis Analytically Speaking

Pat McNanoman is better than most Browns analysts, but missed on this one.  

He made several good points about RG3:  75% of his completions in 2012 came out of the shotgun or rollouts.  When he was put under center, he struggled.  His college success was in an offense bearing no resemblance to anything in the NFL.

To be fair, I can take Pat's points a little further: As I mentioned earlier, Trent Dilfer called him an "either-or" guy who makes two reads, and when neither looks good, scrambles.

And that could be hardware, and not software.  What I mean by that is another thing I've repeated a thousand times: Some guys just don't have the right circuitry in their heads to make third and fourth reads under fire, and can't learn it.

Obligatory disclaimer: Griffin was a straight a student and is very smart.  This has nothing to do with innate intelligence.  I'm not insulting anybody.

And it's a theory in this case, because some guys can learn it, and Grif has only been in the NFL for three seasons.  He hasn't even had that many starts.  This case is not closed.

Where Pat goes astray is in calling this the same old thing.  Hue Jackson was unmistakably the driving force behind this move.

After the (insane) pursuit of Kaepernick, it's now clear that Hue Jackson intends to alter his offense to suit this quarterback, just like Shanahan did in 2012.

It's true that NFL defenses will have found solutions to that, so it can't be as effective, and that a balance of conventional sets and plays must be included.

Pat is also just plain wrong about the status of a Goff or a Wentz on this team.  Pat forsees another quarterback competition "quagmire".

Pat, if you are the Steelers and have Jerome Bettis and a dominating defense, you can start a rookie quarterback.  Or the Ravens (similar situation).  The quarterback isn't required to come from behind or win games by himself.

If you're a team that just lost it's most productive receiver, two fifths of it's offensive line, adapting new offensive and defensive schemes, in the AFC North, you don't want any rookie quarterback including Andrew Luck starting.

This is common knowledge.  Rg3 could indeed fall on his face, but will get his chance as the day one starter.

Hue might call it a competition, and indeed has to go with the best guy if the rookie is just too amazing or something, but most likely this is Griffin's team for now, period, in an offense tailored to his skills.

And Pat got off to a fast start questioning Hue Jackson's judgement, didn't he?

Can't really blame him.  We have indeed seen retread quarterbacks brought in to fall on their faces.  Despite Hue, we're conditioned to expect failure.  It's kind of like Stockholm syndrome.

In RG's defense, I have to mention again that after those injuries and surgeries, RG wasn't fully healed, and might well have become gun shy in Washington.

I had it pointed out to me by Dilfer, or somebody like him.  He would throw off his back foot even when there was no pressure on him.  This was fear.  Call it post-traumatic stress.

This is treatable.  Maybe Doctor Hue can fix it.

But even if not, the new offensive linemen will be grateful for rolling pockets and steep angles, and RG3 can still do that.

I'm glad to see that 44% of you can spell your names right, since you want to keep Josh McCown.  I suspect that many of the 56% who want to cut or trade him meant trade rather than cut.

That's okay, except that I bet a lot of them kidded themselves about his value.  They wouldn't want a sixth or seventh rounder for him.

But why would you just cut him?

Well, this is me talking.  They might indeed cut him or trade him.  I'll call it a dumb move, right away.

RG3 could get blowed up real good again, or fall on his face again.  Do you really think he wants to mentor his own replacement?  Could they get away with starting Austin Davis over Goff or Wentz?  Would that cause riots, do you think?

Sashi?  You'd better keep Josh McCown, or you might end up wrecking your franchise rookie.

In another McNanoman article about draftable wide receivers, Pat lists everybody except that guy from Ohio State...Miller, was it?  Ex-quarterback?  Oh yeah no wonder ex-quarterbacks can't play receiver ok never mind.

On that subject, this just occured to me:  Terrell Pryor can run RG3's offense as a quarterback.

Hmmm....

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