In this article, Mike Shanahan extols RG3's virtues, despite the acrimony of their separation. I pay close attention to this stuff.
After you read this, click on that link to read Shanahan's exact words, but I've got your cliff notes right here:
1: Per Shanahan, four read option quarterbacks have made it to recent Superbowls. He says that those who say the read option is obsolete are clueless.
2: It was RG3, and not Shanahan, who pushed for the conventional pocket-passing offense in year two.
Shanahan wanted to work it in gradually, but Griffin insisted on diving into it all at once.
Mike Shanahan believes that Griffin can (I say possibly has) become a viable pocket passer, but not yet. He needs to keep doing the read-option pistol stuff right now.
3: Shanahan likes that Griffin is going to have Hue Jackson as a Head Coach, because he knows that Hue will know how to use him.
4: Mike shed some light on the read option. It buys the quarterback extra time, because the defense is too concerned about the run.
He meant not only the running back, but the quarterback himself.
(My own comments here): On NFL Radio, the consensus among the real experts is the best answer to the read option is to beat the hell out of the quarterback whether he hands off or not.
That is, to close on him and the running back as they "mesh", or are side-by-side, and nail the quarterback regardless of who ends up with the ball.
But first, they have to get there. The only way to make sure is to blitze inside. And that is hazardous.
I can also hear the permabashers already: The Browns won't be able to run the ball anyway.
Run-blocking is not pass-blocking. It's very very different, Corky. Run-blockers are more common than pass-protectors because it requires less athleticism and thought.
Alex Mack and Mitchell Schwartz were good run-blockers, but what made them elite was their pass-blocking, Sherlock.
There is no pocket in the zone read, Einstein. The offensive line doesn't retreat. They hit people. Offensive linemen like that.
Crowell and Duke will like it too. The Browns should be able to run the ball just fine in whatever Hue's tweaked out, unique version of this scheme is. (It can't be a copy of another scheme. It has to have elements defenses haven't seen before).
The author of the linked article said that RG3 no longer had his blazing speed. That remains to be seen, because he hasn't had a chance to use it since he RECOVERED FROM HIS INJURIES DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Shanahan seems to know exactly what Hue Jackson is up to. Robert won't be pushing all-in for a conventional offense any more. Mike told him: If you do that, you'll struggle. I think RG3 knows that now. Half of Hue's work is done.
Bruce Ariens said that read option quarterbacks always get hurt, but he's wrong. RG3 himself wasn't hurt while running it.
He does need to get out of bounds, get rid of the ball, or take a dive sooner, though. Read option quarterbacks always get hurt if they're DUMB.
I'm starting to get optimistic. Terrell Pryor never had a chance to quarterback this scheme. I think Hue was talking about that a couple weeks ago. The dude is plotting and scheming. I can see the wheels turning.
Oh, but Goff or Wentz, for sure. Don't get stupid now! RG3 isn't very durable, and might flop. Pryor isn't as accurate; he's just not the same kind of passer. He's a wide receiver first now. You need a real quarterback, ok?
This is Hue trying to find a way to be competitive with a decimated offensive line and a so-so defense; it's not the long-term plan. Get the franchise guy while you can, and keep him in one piece.
...of course, this is a fairly simple scheme that's not hard for an inexperienced quarterback to run...
Yes, I'm getting excited. They could win as many as five games in 2016 if this works out! They play the Ravens twice, right?
Thursday, March 31, 2016
RG3 Analysis of Analysis Analytically Speaking
Pat McNanoman is better than most Browns analysts, but missed on this one.
He made several good points about RG3: 75% of his completions in 2012 came out of the shotgun or rollouts. When he was put under center, he struggled. His college success was in an offense bearing no resemblance to anything in the NFL.
To be fair, I can take Pat's points a little further: As I mentioned earlier, Trent Dilfer called him an "either-or" guy who makes two reads, and when neither looks good, scrambles.
And that could be hardware, and not software. What I mean by that is another thing I've repeated a thousand times: Some guys just don't have the right circuitry in their heads to make third and fourth reads under fire, and can't learn it.
Obligatory disclaimer: Griffin was a straight a student and is very smart. This has nothing to do with innate intelligence. I'm not insulting anybody.
And it's a theory in this case, because some guys can learn it, and Grif has only been in the NFL for three seasons. He hasn't even had that many starts. This case is not closed.
Where Pat goes astray is in calling this the same old thing. Hue Jackson was unmistakably the driving force behind this move.
After the (insane) pursuit of Kaepernick, it's now clear that Hue Jackson intends to alter his offense to suit this quarterback, just like Shanahan did in 2012.
It's true that NFL defenses will have found solutions to that, so it can't be as effective, and that a balance of conventional sets and plays must be included.
Pat is also just plain wrong about the status of a Goff or a Wentz on this team. Pat forsees another quarterback competition "quagmire".
Pat, if you are the Steelers and have Jerome Bettis and a dominating defense, you can start a rookie quarterback. Or the Ravens (similar situation). The quarterback isn't required to come from behind or win games by himself.
If you're a team that just lost it's most productive receiver, two fifths of it's offensive line, adapting new offensive and defensive schemes, in the AFC North, you don't want any rookie quarterback including Andrew Luck starting.
This is common knowledge. Rg3 could indeed fall on his face, but will get his chance as the day one starter.
Hue might call it a competition, and indeed has to go with the best guy if the rookie is just too amazing or something, but most likely this is Griffin's team for now, period, in an offense tailored to his skills.
And Pat got off to a fast start questioning Hue Jackson's judgement, didn't he?
Can't really blame him. We have indeed seen retread quarterbacks brought in to fall on their faces. Despite Hue, we're conditioned to expect failure. It's kind of like Stockholm syndrome.
In RG's defense, I have to mention again that after those injuries and surgeries, RG wasn't fully healed, and might well have become gun shy in Washington.
I had it pointed out to me by Dilfer, or somebody like him. He would throw off his back foot even when there was no pressure on him. This was fear. Call it post-traumatic stress.
This is treatable. Maybe Doctor Hue can fix it.
But even if not, the new offensive linemen will be grateful for rolling pockets and steep angles, and RG3 can still do that.
I'm glad to see that 44% of you can spell your names right, since you want to keep Josh McCown. I suspect that many of the 56% who want to cut or trade him meant trade rather than cut.
That's okay, except that I bet a lot of them kidded themselves about his value. They wouldn't want a sixth or seventh rounder for him.
But why would you just cut him?
Well, this is me talking. They might indeed cut him or trade him. I'll call it a dumb move, right away.
RG3 could get blowed up real good again, or fall on his face again. Do you really think he wants to mentor his own replacement? Could they get away with starting Austin Davis over Goff or Wentz? Would that cause riots, do you think?
Sashi? You'd better keep Josh McCown, or you might end up wrecking your franchise rookie.
In another McNanoman article about draftable wide receivers, Pat lists everybody except that guy from Ohio State...Miller, was it? Ex-quarterback? Oh yeah no wonder ex-quarterbacks can't play receiver ok never mind.
On that subject, this just occured to me: Terrell Pryor can run RG3's offense as a quarterback.
Hmmm....
He made several good points about RG3: 75% of his completions in 2012 came out of the shotgun or rollouts. When he was put under center, he struggled. His college success was in an offense bearing no resemblance to anything in the NFL.
To be fair, I can take Pat's points a little further: As I mentioned earlier, Trent Dilfer called him an "either-or" guy who makes two reads, and when neither looks good, scrambles.
And that could be hardware, and not software. What I mean by that is another thing I've repeated a thousand times: Some guys just don't have the right circuitry in their heads to make third and fourth reads under fire, and can't learn it.
Obligatory disclaimer: Griffin was a straight a student and is very smart. This has nothing to do with innate intelligence. I'm not insulting anybody.
And it's a theory in this case, because some guys can learn it, and Grif has only been in the NFL for three seasons. He hasn't even had that many starts. This case is not closed.
Where Pat goes astray is in calling this the same old thing. Hue Jackson was unmistakably the driving force behind this move.
After the (insane) pursuit of Kaepernick, it's now clear that Hue Jackson intends to alter his offense to suit this quarterback, just like Shanahan did in 2012.
It's true that NFL defenses will have found solutions to that, so it can't be as effective, and that a balance of conventional sets and plays must be included.
Pat is also just plain wrong about the status of a Goff or a Wentz on this team. Pat forsees another quarterback competition "quagmire".
Pat, if you are the Steelers and have Jerome Bettis and a dominating defense, you can start a rookie quarterback. Or the Ravens (similar situation). The quarterback isn't required to come from behind or win games by himself.
If you're a team that just lost it's most productive receiver, two fifths of it's offensive line, adapting new offensive and defensive schemes, in the AFC North, you don't want any rookie quarterback including Andrew Luck starting.
This is common knowledge. Rg3 could indeed fall on his face, but will get his chance as the day one starter.
Hue might call it a competition, and indeed has to go with the best guy if the rookie is just too amazing or something, but most likely this is Griffin's team for now, period, in an offense tailored to his skills.
And Pat got off to a fast start questioning Hue Jackson's judgement, didn't he?
Can't really blame him. We have indeed seen retread quarterbacks brought in to fall on their faces. Despite Hue, we're conditioned to expect failure. It's kind of like Stockholm syndrome.
In RG's defense, I have to mention again that after those injuries and surgeries, RG wasn't fully healed, and might well have become gun shy in Washington.
I had it pointed out to me by Dilfer, or somebody like him. He would throw off his back foot even when there was no pressure on him. This was fear. Call it post-traumatic stress.
This is treatable. Maybe Doctor Hue can fix it.
But even if not, the new offensive linemen will be grateful for rolling pockets and steep angles, and RG3 can still do that.
I'm glad to see that 44% of you can spell your names right, since you want to keep Josh McCown. I suspect that many of the 56% who want to cut or trade him meant trade rather than cut.
That's okay, except that I bet a lot of them kidded themselves about his value. They wouldn't want a sixth or seventh rounder for him.
But why would you just cut him?
Well, this is me talking. They might indeed cut him or trade him. I'll call it a dumb move, right away.
RG3 could get blowed up real good again, or fall on his face again. Do you really think he wants to mentor his own replacement? Could they get away with starting Austin Davis over Goff or Wentz? Would that cause riots, do you think?
Sashi? You'd better keep Josh McCown, or you might end up wrecking your franchise rookie.
In another McNanoman article about draftable wide receivers, Pat lists everybody except that guy from Ohio State...Miller, was it? Ex-quarterback? Oh yeah no wonder ex-quarterbacks can't play receiver ok never mind.
On that subject, this just occured to me: Terrell Pryor can run RG3's offense as a quarterback.
Hmmm....
Wednesday, March 30, 2016
There was Ray Farmer, Had a Dawg...
...And Mingo was his name, oh em eye...
Ok sorry. By the way, Farmer didn't draft him, in case that matters to anyone but me.
Anyway, Mingo blows my semi-safety theory to hell by blowing himself up to 260 lbs. He may still be used in coverage somewhat, but Ray Horton will clearly want him quarterback-hunting like the other guys.
I haven't figured this out yet. Mingo has a very high metabolism, and I'd thought that, at least until he got older, he'd have a very hard time gaining or holding weight.
But now I remember: Mike Pettine wasn't concerned about his weight. Maybe he wasn't really trying to get bigger.
Is this all muscle? If it was anybody else, I'd bet on at least half of the additional twenty pounds being lard. But this is the human blast furnace, Barky Mingo. Even though he's a year older, I doubt that he's even able to get fat (don't you just hate him btw?)
He must have started on this shortly after the end of last season, before Ray Horton was even brought in. You just can't gain that much mass that fast without steroids.
Clay Matthews was 235 coming out of college. He retired at around 270, with the nickname "Conan"...And not just because of his hair. But he gained a little each season. Mingo just jumped from Clay's year two to year thirteen in one off-season.
Rappaport isn't La Canfora, so it's probably true: Mingo now weighs 260 lbs.
This could be big. Recall an earlier blog, where I cited PFF giving Mingo positive grades in run defense, despite our perceptions as fans.
Per them, as best my enfeebled brain can recall, Mingo failed to develop third and fourth pass-rush moves (like change-up pitches) and rarely converted speed to power in a bull-rush.
(Fast passrusher steps outside or inside aggressively as blocker retreats to shrink his angles. Blocker starts slide-step to mirror the move. Passrusher's next step is into the blocker, with upward punch to pads before blocker's other foot can follow slide-step, jacking him upright and off-balance, driving forward and up to drive blocker back).
Mingo is only a little shorter than offensive tackles, and they outweighed him by seventy-plus pounds, so you can see how the bull-rush would be harder for him.
When an offensive lineman knows you can't bull rush him, he can focus more on what you do best.
The extra weight should give Mingo another dimension. Even if it is half lard (which I doubt) mass is mass. Lard moving with momentum still exerts force. The bull-rush is all about leverage, inertia, and balance.
This could break Mingo out of his rut.
Nobody else seems to have paid any attention to this. I guess that's because he's been stuffed in the "bust" box, and nothing can change that.
I assume that Mingo was careful not to undermine his flexibility or speed, and hope the majority of additional weight is in his lower body.
It will hinder him in coverage, because he'll have more inertia to overcome in stopping/starting and changing directions.
Well, we'll see. It really is do-or-die time for Barky. I'm rooting for him.
I now believe Steven Jones (Cowboys) will go after a quarterback. Steven is smart like his father, but unlike his father was raised immersed in the NFL, and is a real pro.
Jerry predicting that his elderly banged up quarterback will play into his seventies was delusional, but probably also deceptive. Even if Jerry really believes it, his son does not.
The good news is that Goff and Wentz are literally in a dead heat. This makes it less likely that the Cowboys will trade up to number one to grab one of them.
Certainly, Steve might prefer one over the other, but both of them are now regarded by most football people as franchise types. I'll bet you that the majority of them wouldn't give up a draft pick to choose one over the other.
The danger for the Cowboys is that somebody would trade up to THREE to steal the quarterback the Browns don't get. They might give up a lot less to move up just one slot instead of three.
Another possibility is Paxton Lynch. Steve might even trade DOWN a little. He has Tony Romo with a plate in his collar bone now. With a little luck, Lynch marinates for a couple seasons.
But I'm getting into the weeds here. I simply now believe that the Browns should have their pick of quarterbacks at two.
The 49ers draft seventh, and could make a move, but the Rams are just too low. Both teams have other needs. And like with the Cowboys, three is a more affordable target than one.
Yes, it's that close. Goff is only twenty one, and his father is a burly guy. He'll bulk up naturally, even without NFL strength training, and he was a shade slower than Wentz in the 40.
Both are natural throwers who "make it look easy". Both are very smart, love football, and work hard. Goff has the edge in anticipation and decision-making, Wentz in improvisation and scrambling.
Both fit any system, although Wentz could run a read-option while Goff would be better in a West Coast. I mean it's like chocolate and vanilla. Pick one.
The only way the Browns can miss this time is if they listen to some of you and don't draft a quarterback at two.
Ok sorry. By the way, Farmer didn't draft him, in case that matters to anyone but me.
Anyway, Mingo blows my semi-safety theory to hell by blowing himself up to 260 lbs. He may still be used in coverage somewhat, but Ray Horton will clearly want him quarterback-hunting like the other guys.
I haven't figured this out yet. Mingo has a very high metabolism, and I'd thought that, at least until he got older, he'd have a very hard time gaining or holding weight.
But now I remember: Mike Pettine wasn't concerned about his weight. Maybe he wasn't really trying to get bigger.
Is this all muscle? If it was anybody else, I'd bet on at least half of the additional twenty pounds being lard. But this is the human blast furnace, Barky Mingo. Even though he's a year older, I doubt that he's even able to get fat (don't you just hate him btw?)
He must have started on this shortly after the end of last season, before Ray Horton was even brought in. You just can't gain that much mass that fast without steroids.
Clay Matthews was 235 coming out of college. He retired at around 270, with the nickname "Conan"...And not just because of his hair. But he gained a little each season. Mingo just jumped from Clay's year two to year thirteen in one off-season.
Rappaport isn't La Canfora, so it's probably true: Mingo now weighs 260 lbs.
This could be big. Recall an earlier blog, where I cited PFF giving Mingo positive grades in run defense, despite our perceptions as fans.
Per them, as best my enfeebled brain can recall, Mingo failed to develop third and fourth pass-rush moves (like change-up pitches) and rarely converted speed to power in a bull-rush.
(Fast passrusher steps outside or inside aggressively as blocker retreats to shrink his angles. Blocker starts slide-step to mirror the move. Passrusher's next step is into the blocker, with upward punch to pads before blocker's other foot can follow slide-step, jacking him upright and off-balance, driving forward and up to drive blocker back).
Mingo is only a little shorter than offensive tackles, and they outweighed him by seventy-plus pounds, so you can see how the bull-rush would be harder for him.
When an offensive lineman knows you can't bull rush him, he can focus more on what you do best.
The extra weight should give Mingo another dimension. Even if it is half lard (which I doubt) mass is mass. Lard moving with momentum still exerts force. The bull-rush is all about leverage, inertia, and balance.
This could break Mingo out of his rut.
Nobody else seems to have paid any attention to this. I guess that's because he's been stuffed in the "bust" box, and nothing can change that.
I assume that Mingo was careful not to undermine his flexibility or speed, and hope the majority of additional weight is in his lower body.
It will hinder him in coverage, because he'll have more inertia to overcome in stopping/starting and changing directions.
Well, we'll see. It really is do-or-die time for Barky. I'm rooting for him.
I now believe Steven Jones (Cowboys) will go after a quarterback. Steven is smart like his father, but unlike his father was raised immersed in the NFL, and is a real pro.
Jerry predicting that his elderly banged up quarterback will play into his seventies was delusional, but probably also deceptive. Even if Jerry really believes it, his son does not.
The good news is that Goff and Wentz are literally in a dead heat. This makes it less likely that the Cowboys will trade up to number one to grab one of them.
Certainly, Steve might prefer one over the other, but both of them are now regarded by most football people as franchise types. I'll bet you that the majority of them wouldn't give up a draft pick to choose one over the other.
The danger for the Cowboys is that somebody would trade up to THREE to steal the quarterback the Browns don't get. They might give up a lot less to move up just one slot instead of three.
Another possibility is Paxton Lynch. Steve might even trade DOWN a little. He has Tony Romo with a plate in his collar bone now. With a little luck, Lynch marinates for a couple seasons.
But I'm getting into the weeds here. I simply now believe that the Browns should have their pick of quarterbacks at two.
The 49ers draft seventh, and could make a move, but the Rams are just too low. Both teams have other needs. And like with the Cowboys, three is a more affordable target than one.
Yes, it's that close. Goff is only twenty one, and his father is a burly guy. He'll bulk up naturally, even without NFL strength training, and he was a shade slower than Wentz in the 40.
Both are natural throwers who "make it look easy". Both are very smart, love football, and work hard. Goff has the edge in anticipation and decision-making, Wentz in improvisation and scrambling.
Both fit any system, although Wentz could run a read-option while Goff would be better in a West Coast. I mean it's like chocolate and vanilla. Pick one.
The only way the Browns can miss this time is if they listen to some of you and don't draft a quarterback at two.
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
Browns Mockery Draft
Everybody is entitled to do mock drafts, but I found this one useful for educational purposes. I think it was done by a reader (fan), and can remember myself making similar mistakes, so I'm not here to bash the guy.
In the first round, he goes with Goff. That's fine with me. Only the reason he picks Goff over Wentz is that he seems more NFL ready. This guy thinks the Browns want their rookie to start game one. They don't.
In the second, it's Cody Whitehair. This is a really good player, but the Browns are all set with two top ten guards. They need tackles. Not guards.
In the third? A small receiver. Yes, the Browns need more small receivers.
In the fourth round, it's a big running back. It's important to replace Isaiah Crowell.
The next fourth rounder is Matt Judon from Grand Valley state, who the guy says got TWENTY sacks. Wait a minute I've got to check this kid out...ok done:
Very interesting, like Nate Orchard. He weighed 273 at the combine, but could play lighter (he'd need to be an OLB here). He'd go higher but played vs the Little Sisters of the Poor, was injured, and redshirted two years. Can't knock this pick.
In the fifth round, he takes QB Dak Prescott. Prescott is a very interesting prospect with real potential, but I guess this guy hates McCown as much as he hates Crow.
The next fifth rounder is a 340 lb defensive lineman to plug the middle of the Browns defensive line. This is a good player, but here are some issues with that:
1: Danny Shelton is already here.
2: Ray Horton's defense doesn't use a conventional nose tackle.
3: Ray Horton's defensive line mainly one-gaps.
In the sixth, it's tight end Bryce Williams. He's simply not that good.
Again in the sixth it's a center named Blythe. I haven't checked this guy out myself yet, but he sounds pretty good, if right now kind of small and not strong enough. No...he's actually strong as hell! Great call here!
In the seventh, it's wide receiver Geronimo Allison. This is okay because Allison is one of the sleepers I dug up weeks ago. He's a big receiver who needs some polishing. If he makes it to the seventh round, that's a best available for sure.
I wait three years to grade real drafts, but can give this one a C-minus right now.
The Browns don't need small receivers or guards. The running back isn't in Crow's class, even. Dak Prescott is a fine lottery ticket, but redundant in this case with a team having so many other needs.
Finally, you don't draft a tight end who can't block and drops passes just because he's called a tight end. And anybody you draft should at least be better than a player already on the roster.
In the first round, he goes with Goff. That's fine with me. Only the reason he picks Goff over Wentz is that he seems more NFL ready. This guy thinks the Browns want their rookie to start game one. They don't.
In the second, it's Cody Whitehair. This is a really good player, but the Browns are all set with two top ten guards. They need tackles. Not guards.
In the third? A small receiver. Yes, the Browns need more small receivers.
In the fourth round, it's a big running back. It's important to replace Isaiah Crowell.
The next fourth rounder is Matt Judon from Grand Valley state, who the guy says got TWENTY sacks. Wait a minute I've got to check this kid out...ok done:
Very interesting, like Nate Orchard. He weighed 273 at the combine, but could play lighter (he'd need to be an OLB here). He'd go higher but played vs the Little Sisters of the Poor, was injured, and redshirted two years. Can't knock this pick.
In the fifth round, he takes QB Dak Prescott. Prescott is a very interesting prospect with real potential, but I guess this guy hates McCown as much as he hates Crow.
The next fifth rounder is a 340 lb defensive lineman to plug the middle of the Browns defensive line. This is a good player, but here are some issues with that:
1: Danny Shelton is already here.
2: Ray Horton's defense doesn't use a conventional nose tackle.
3: Ray Horton's defensive line mainly one-gaps.
In the sixth, it's tight end Bryce Williams. He's simply not that good.
Again in the sixth it's a center named Blythe. I haven't checked this guy out myself yet, but he sounds pretty good, if right now kind of small and not strong enough. No...he's actually strong as hell! Great call here!
In the seventh, it's wide receiver Geronimo Allison. This is okay because Allison is one of the sleepers I dug up weeks ago. He's a big receiver who needs some polishing. If he makes it to the seventh round, that's a best available for sure.
I wait three years to grade real drafts, but can give this one a C-minus right now.
The Browns don't need small receivers or guards. The running back isn't in Crow's class, even. Dak Prescott is a fine lottery ticket, but redundant in this case with a team having so many other needs.
Finally, you don't draft a tight end who can't block and drops passes just because he's called a tight end. And anybody you draft should at least be better than a player already on the roster.
That was Then. This is Now. That was Them. These aren't.
One article I couldn't read more than two sentences of began: "The Cleveland Browns are being run in a bizarre fashion". This was fine. Bizarre could apply.
"One which has kept them at the bottom of the league---" was idiocy. Before I fled the page, I saw names like Jeff Garcia and Tim Couch.
None of this has anything whatsoever to do with any high level employee of this new organization. Nor was Jimmy Haslam even the owner for most of it.
Specifically for this article, we all know that DePodesta and Brown are doing something new. In fact, the majority of legitimate NFL experts expect it to fail because it defies their conventions.
And once again, this word "analytics" has confused everybody. Pat Kirwan has a better grasp of it. He describes it as analysis on a deeper level, as it integrates different categories in more complex formulae to arrive at more in-depth conclusions and projections.
I as a former military analyst have explained it in simpler terms in previous blogs, and won't belabor it here. I suggest that when you hear or read the word "analytics", you think "analysis", because it's become like "utilize". People think you're smarter when you tack on unnecessary syllables.
DePodesta is more than a numbers geek. He has been hired as a business consultant in various industries. He's what used to be called an efficiency expert. He's regarded so highly by so many captains of industry because, unlike a geek, he is highly creative, and restructures more than tweaks.
That's what is happening here. It's quite possible that when Mitchell Schwartz turned down 7mil/year, DePodesta advised Brown to write him off.
That wasn't a numbers thing. That may well have been an effort to change a pattern. Real analysts look for patterns. This pattern is: If you are a Cleveland Brown, you either want to escape, or to gouge the team in order to stay.
That's not good. It reflects an attitude that is unwelcome. Yes, the team is currently near the bottom of the NFL barrel, but this is a new front office. They just hired the best and most popular head coach candidate, who in turn hired seasoned, proven assistants.
Schwartz was young enough to participate in a resurgence, but was trying to extort more money. This isn't helpful. Paul may have told Sashi "We want smart players with character. We don't want mercenaries. We can't have agents thinking they can extort us, or nobody will ever sign a market value extension."
See how Hue Jackson aggressively defends Brown? He's all-in. He gets it. He's also got a strong voice in it. He can't stop smiling.
He's also right about not losing even more than thirteen games. Guys like Andrew Hawkins and three offensive linemen aren't nearly as bad as people outside the organization think.
It's irrefutable that the Browns did take a step back in free agency. Center and right tackle won't be as good. Wide receiver won't be as explosive. The new safety probably won't get as many interceptions.
But the replacements aren't bad players. The step back wasn't nearly as huge as is being portrayed. Unlike most of you, Hue is acutely aware of Terrelle Pryor. He's not counting on anything, including Josh Gordon, at this point, but doesn't see a bare cupboard either.
He says the Browns need to address wide receiver, but you need to hear the rest of what he says: Gordon fits his profile, as does Pryor. He simply doesn't have Gordon back yet, and hasn't seen Pryor running against coverage in 2016 yet.
He mentioned not just Hawkins, but the other microbes, as helpful, and unlike everybody else likes Hartline too.
What he's talking about is a true X-receiver. Pryor won't be ready, and Gordon isn't here yet. But he can't stop smiling, because he has TWO of them on-deck, whereas the majority of teams, including playoff teams, don't even have one.
Trent Dilfer describes RG3 as an "either-or" quarterback to date. He will look at two targets, and then improvise. That seems accurate.
I'm just guessing here, but maybe Hue believes he can get him to that third read. It's not a giant leap. Maybe he has a unique way of compelling a quarterback to throw to a spot on-time, too (anticipation).
As I've said before, that's very, very hard for some quarterbacks. It requires a lot of trust in the receiver to get there, and results in an interception half the time when he isn't.
It's worse for a guy who's under fire by coaches and fans alike. But it's purely psychological. This is "throwing with anticipation" and "throwing receivers open", and is one of RG's biggest problems.
He has the accuracy and the arm. He's not that far away, and this reclamation might look easier to Hue Jackson than it does on paper.
And Hue is part of this team. Call him their "intuition". An analyst will rely on a source without cross-checking or confirmation when that source proves reliable over time.
Analysis is divorced from ego. Sashi and Paul probably argued with Hue about Kaepernick and RG3, but were persuaded by him, despite being unable to understand it themselves.
This is why we call them "assets". Hue is smarter than them in some ways. They will exploit that.
By now, we probably all know who is calling the quarterback shots here. Those who read this blog also know that Hue might well be content with Wentz or Goff, because he feels he can turn either of them into a franchise guy.
Those who say that if somebody else grabs Wentz, the Browns might go best available aren't thinking much.
While I myself threw Paxton Lynch (after a trade-down) out there, it's still a lot more likely that they'd simply take Goff. In fact, I just don't understand how Goff went from the top tier to not good enough in so many minds.
Franchise quarterbacks don't grow on trees. Some of the same people who bash the Browns for picking the wrong quarterbacks LOW in the first round think if it's not Wentz, they should just wait for 2017 or take some guy later on!
And the real experts beg to differ with the fan base on the quality of these quarterbacks. Jim Miller ranks Wentz and Goff right with Winston and Mariota. Newheisel compares Goff to Montana, and Mayock compares Wentz to Luck. Cosell feels that Goff is a better prospect than Winston was.
And now, if it's not Wentz, it's nobody? Good grief!
And that was Then, this is now: The Browns haven't drafted at the top of the first round before. They haven't had the chance to draft a Mariota or a Winston before. This is different than drafting McCoy in the third, or Manswell or some other consolation prize twenty third.
Why can't you see the difference?
"One which has kept them at the bottom of the league---" was idiocy. Before I fled the page, I saw names like Jeff Garcia and Tim Couch.
None of this has anything whatsoever to do with any high level employee of this new organization. Nor was Jimmy Haslam even the owner for most of it.
Specifically for this article, we all know that DePodesta and Brown are doing something new. In fact, the majority of legitimate NFL experts expect it to fail because it defies their conventions.
And once again, this word "analytics" has confused everybody. Pat Kirwan has a better grasp of it. He describes it as analysis on a deeper level, as it integrates different categories in more complex formulae to arrive at more in-depth conclusions and projections.
I as a former military analyst have explained it in simpler terms in previous blogs, and won't belabor it here. I suggest that when you hear or read the word "analytics", you think "analysis", because it's become like "utilize". People think you're smarter when you tack on unnecessary syllables.
DePodesta is more than a numbers geek. He has been hired as a business consultant in various industries. He's what used to be called an efficiency expert. He's regarded so highly by so many captains of industry because, unlike a geek, he is highly creative, and restructures more than tweaks.
That's what is happening here. It's quite possible that when Mitchell Schwartz turned down 7mil/year, DePodesta advised Brown to write him off.
That wasn't a numbers thing. That may well have been an effort to change a pattern. Real analysts look for patterns. This pattern is: If you are a Cleveland Brown, you either want to escape, or to gouge the team in order to stay.
That's not good. It reflects an attitude that is unwelcome. Yes, the team is currently near the bottom of the NFL barrel, but this is a new front office. They just hired the best and most popular head coach candidate, who in turn hired seasoned, proven assistants.
Schwartz was young enough to participate in a resurgence, but was trying to extort more money. This isn't helpful. Paul may have told Sashi "We want smart players with character. We don't want mercenaries. We can't have agents thinking they can extort us, or nobody will ever sign a market value extension."
See how Hue Jackson aggressively defends Brown? He's all-in. He gets it. He's also got a strong voice in it. He can't stop smiling.
He's also right about not losing even more than thirteen games. Guys like Andrew Hawkins and three offensive linemen aren't nearly as bad as people outside the organization think.
It's irrefutable that the Browns did take a step back in free agency. Center and right tackle won't be as good. Wide receiver won't be as explosive. The new safety probably won't get as many interceptions.
But the replacements aren't bad players. The step back wasn't nearly as huge as is being portrayed. Unlike most of you, Hue is acutely aware of Terrelle Pryor. He's not counting on anything, including Josh Gordon, at this point, but doesn't see a bare cupboard either.
He says the Browns need to address wide receiver, but you need to hear the rest of what he says: Gordon fits his profile, as does Pryor. He simply doesn't have Gordon back yet, and hasn't seen Pryor running against coverage in 2016 yet.
He mentioned not just Hawkins, but the other microbes, as helpful, and unlike everybody else likes Hartline too.
What he's talking about is a true X-receiver. Pryor won't be ready, and Gordon isn't here yet. But he can't stop smiling, because he has TWO of them on-deck, whereas the majority of teams, including playoff teams, don't even have one.
Trent Dilfer describes RG3 as an "either-or" quarterback to date. He will look at two targets, and then improvise. That seems accurate.
I'm just guessing here, but maybe Hue believes he can get him to that third read. It's not a giant leap. Maybe he has a unique way of compelling a quarterback to throw to a spot on-time, too (anticipation).
As I've said before, that's very, very hard for some quarterbacks. It requires a lot of trust in the receiver to get there, and results in an interception half the time when he isn't.
It's worse for a guy who's under fire by coaches and fans alike. But it's purely psychological. This is "throwing with anticipation" and "throwing receivers open", and is one of RG's biggest problems.
He has the accuracy and the arm. He's not that far away, and this reclamation might look easier to Hue Jackson than it does on paper.
And Hue is part of this team. Call him their "intuition". An analyst will rely on a source without cross-checking or confirmation when that source proves reliable over time.
Analysis is divorced from ego. Sashi and Paul probably argued with Hue about Kaepernick and RG3, but were persuaded by him, despite being unable to understand it themselves.
This is why we call them "assets". Hue is smarter than them in some ways. They will exploit that.
By now, we probably all know who is calling the quarterback shots here. Those who read this blog also know that Hue might well be content with Wentz or Goff, because he feels he can turn either of them into a franchise guy.
Those who say that if somebody else grabs Wentz, the Browns might go best available aren't thinking much.
While I myself threw Paxton Lynch (after a trade-down) out there, it's still a lot more likely that they'd simply take Goff. In fact, I just don't understand how Goff went from the top tier to not good enough in so many minds.
Franchise quarterbacks don't grow on trees. Some of the same people who bash the Browns for picking the wrong quarterbacks LOW in the first round think if it's not Wentz, they should just wait for 2017 or take some guy later on!
And the real experts beg to differ with the fan base on the quality of these quarterbacks. Jim Miller ranks Wentz and Goff right with Winston and Mariota. Newheisel compares Goff to Montana, and Mayock compares Wentz to Luck. Cosell feels that Goff is a better prospect than Winston was.
And now, if it's not Wentz, it's nobody? Good grief!
And that was Then, this is now: The Browns haven't drafted at the top of the first round before. They haven't had the chance to draft a Mariota or a Winston before. This is different than drafting McCoy in the third, or Manswell or some other consolation prize twenty third.
Why can't you see the difference?
Sunday, March 27, 2016
Paxton Lynch and the Cleveland Browns
After the Browns signed RG3, some conclusion-leapers assumed that this meant that the Browns didn't like Goff or Wentz. This, of course, was dumb.
Those who read my most recent literary masterpiece know that Hue's clear propensity for dual-threat, athletic quarterbacks, combined with recent free agent non-moves, may well indicate the type of offense he wants to run.
More than that, but Hue's belief that he could fix Colin Kaepernick, and that he will fix RG3, might also mean that he believes he can coach up any quarterback with the raw skills and traits he needs.
That got me to checking out the "other guy": Paxton Lynch.
Lynch, I learned, is largely self-taught as a quarterback. This makes you wonder what Hue Jackson could turn him into.
It also says a lot about Lynch himself: This guy is pretty damn good, and he did that on his own!
He'll be even bigger than Cam Newton before he's full grown, and is a former running back. He's not nearly as fast as Cam, but can really move all the same.
Some analysts saw a red flag in a putrid performance in a Bowl game: The other team's defense managed to take away his screen passes, and once he'd fallen behind, play-action was no longer effective.
This was indeed alarming, and is the biggest reason he is not considered on the same tier as Goff or Wentz.
Still, this was an outlier in a pattern which otherwise showed steady improvement throughout his college career. This game is not to be minimized, because it was for all the marbles. Scouts look harder at these games to see how a quarterback handles adversity and bright lights.
The big question is, how does Hue Jackson see it? It was a big game, but still only one game.
Another reason Lynch is below the top tier is that he's still a work in progress, and will take longer to develop.
The most important reason is that nobody can be certain he has the mental hardware to set protections, make multiple pre and post-snap reads, and consistently make correct decisions under the gun.
But if you check out criticisms of RG3, you find clues: RG tends to hold the ball. He hasn't thrown with anticipation (ie insists on seeing that a receiver is open rather than trusting him to make the correct break at the correct time.)
This didn't seem to bother Hue Jackson. Hue seems to think he can fix anything.
Second overall is way too high to draft a Paxton Lynch, and it's almost a given that if the Browns stay there, Goff or Wentz are much safer bets.
But if Hue indeed likes Lynch, it could make a trade DOWN more likely.
That gets dangerous when your target is a quarterback, especially when he soon becomes the consensus best one left on the board.
The Niners draft seventh overall, and need a quarterback. Unlike the Browns, they don't have a McCown or a Griffin (or a Davis, for that matter), so a project like Lynch is less than ideal.
A trade up to number two gets them Goff or Wentz, and the Browns could ignore the bashing to "overdraft" Lynch seventh overall.
The risk is that somebody else might trade up to sixth to steal Lynch.
However, the Browns have RG3 now, right? They need a lot of other stuff, right? And Lynch is predicted to go late in the first, or even in the second, right? Hue not attending Lynch's Pro Day ices the cake. (That could be deception, or blow my whole theory to hell).
As for taking Lynch seventh, screw the bashers: If you think a guy can be a franchise guy, you take him, no matter what, period. If he is who you think he is, he's worth it, and the rest is crap.
But he'd have to stay on the bench for two or three years? No. People tend to overstate everything. This is why a 6'5", 240 lb. 4.4 ex-quarterback isn't even considered a factor at wide receiver.
Lynch has mechanical flaws, but did start for three seasons in college. He shouldn't start as a rookie, but in the type of offense Hue Jackson appears to be building, he might be ready by season two.
All this is spitballing, of course. Who knows?
But for those who think that a team in its earliest stages of an overhaul, playing in the AFC North, needs a "pro ready" rookie quarterback, you really need to rethink that.
They need the quarterback with the most upside, period. He will be ready when the team is ready.
And Lynch could indeed have more upside even than Carson Wentz. I don't know---ask Hue about that. But if Hue thinks so, don't count Lynch out.
Lynch and another second rounder, and maybe another second in 2017...five slots, ya no?
In this article in Dawg Pound Daily, beat writers from the other three cities in the AFC North were asked whether or not their respective teams would be worried about RG3.
The Baltimore writer was the most dismissive. I think that's funny, because the Ravens suck worse than the Browns, and his team should worry about Hue Jackson's Browns with any quarterback.
The Bengals writer stunned me by defending RG3, saying he got a raw deal, and would come back strong.
Criticisms of him are legit, but dated. Every NFL quarterback, including Micheal Vick, Wilson, and Newton need to throw from the pocket, at least sometimes.
It took Vick a long time to get there. It took Newton a long time, too, only he was allowed to run around until he did. But they did learn it. It will never be what they do best, but each can now be trusted in the pocket.
Nothing says that RG3 has not or will not master the pocket, especially with Hue Jackson, and maybe Josh McCown, helping him out.
It does look like Hue will go pistol and read-option a lot though, and RG is already all over that.
The Ravens guy should be afraid. Very afraid.
Those who read my most recent literary masterpiece know that Hue's clear propensity for dual-threat, athletic quarterbacks, combined with recent free agent non-moves, may well indicate the type of offense he wants to run.
More than that, but Hue's belief that he could fix Colin Kaepernick, and that he will fix RG3, might also mean that he believes he can coach up any quarterback with the raw skills and traits he needs.
That got me to checking out the "other guy": Paxton Lynch.
Lynch, I learned, is largely self-taught as a quarterback. This makes you wonder what Hue Jackson could turn him into.
It also says a lot about Lynch himself: This guy is pretty damn good, and he did that on his own!
He'll be even bigger than Cam Newton before he's full grown, and is a former running back. He's not nearly as fast as Cam, but can really move all the same.
Some analysts saw a red flag in a putrid performance in a Bowl game: The other team's defense managed to take away his screen passes, and once he'd fallen behind, play-action was no longer effective.
This was indeed alarming, and is the biggest reason he is not considered on the same tier as Goff or Wentz.
Still, this was an outlier in a pattern which otherwise showed steady improvement throughout his college career. This game is not to be minimized, because it was for all the marbles. Scouts look harder at these games to see how a quarterback handles adversity and bright lights.
The big question is, how does Hue Jackson see it? It was a big game, but still only one game.
Another reason Lynch is below the top tier is that he's still a work in progress, and will take longer to develop.
The most important reason is that nobody can be certain he has the mental hardware to set protections, make multiple pre and post-snap reads, and consistently make correct decisions under the gun.
But if you check out criticisms of RG3, you find clues: RG tends to hold the ball. He hasn't thrown with anticipation (ie insists on seeing that a receiver is open rather than trusting him to make the correct break at the correct time.)
This didn't seem to bother Hue Jackson. Hue seems to think he can fix anything.
Second overall is way too high to draft a Paxton Lynch, and it's almost a given that if the Browns stay there, Goff or Wentz are much safer bets.
But if Hue indeed likes Lynch, it could make a trade DOWN more likely.
That gets dangerous when your target is a quarterback, especially when he soon becomes the consensus best one left on the board.
The Niners draft seventh overall, and need a quarterback. Unlike the Browns, they don't have a McCown or a Griffin (or a Davis, for that matter), so a project like Lynch is less than ideal.
A trade up to number two gets them Goff or Wentz, and the Browns could ignore the bashing to "overdraft" Lynch seventh overall.
The risk is that somebody else might trade up to sixth to steal Lynch.
However, the Browns have RG3 now, right? They need a lot of other stuff, right? And Lynch is predicted to go late in the first, or even in the second, right? Hue not attending Lynch's Pro Day ices the cake. (That could be deception, or blow my whole theory to hell).
As for taking Lynch seventh, screw the bashers: If you think a guy can be a franchise guy, you take him, no matter what, period. If he is who you think he is, he's worth it, and the rest is crap.
But he'd have to stay on the bench for two or three years? No. People tend to overstate everything. This is why a 6'5", 240 lb. 4.4 ex-quarterback isn't even considered a factor at wide receiver.
Lynch has mechanical flaws, but did start for three seasons in college. He shouldn't start as a rookie, but in the type of offense Hue Jackson appears to be building, he might be ready by season two.
All this is spitballing, of course. Who knows?
But for those who think that a team in its earliest stages of an overhaul, playing in the AFC North, needs a "pro ready" rookie quarterback, you really need to rethink that.
They need the quarterback with the most upside, period. He will be ready when the team is ready.
And Lynch could indeed have more upside even than Carson Wentz. I don't know---ask Hue about that. But if Hue thinks so, don't count Lynch out.
Lynch and another second rounder, and maybe another second in 2017...five slots, ya no?
In this article in Dawg Pound Daily, beat writers from the other three cities in the AFC North were asked whether or not their respective teams would be worried about RG3.
The Baltimore writer was the most dismissive. I think that's funny, because the Ravens suck worse than the Browns, and his team should worry about Hue Jackson's Browns with any quarterback.
The Bengals writer stunned me by defending RG3, saying he got a raw deal, and would come back strong.
Criticisms of him are legit, but dated. Every NFL quarterback, including Micheal Vick, Wilson, and Newton need to throw from the pocket, at least sometimes.
It took Vick a long time to get there. It took Newton a long time, too, only he was allowed to run around until he did. But they did learn it. It will never be what they do best, but each can now be trusted in the pocket.
Nothing says that RG3 has not or will not master the pocket, especially with Hue Jackson, and maybe Josh McCown, helping him out.
It does look like Hue will go pistol and read-option a lot though, and RG is already all over that.
The Ravens guy should be afraid. Very afraid.
Friday, March 25, 2016
The Browns, RGIII, and Olympic Conclusion Leaps
No rumor regarding Josh McCown came from the Browns organization. It is logical to suspect that Sashi Brown and company would accept good trade offer for him, but:
It's irrational to assume that they want to get rid of him simply because RGIII is now on board.
Hue Jackson obviously believes he can salvage Griffin's career, but even if he is certain of it, Sashi and Paul are not. Nor am I. Nor are you.
In addition to being a fantastic mentor for a rookie quarterback, Josh is the bird in the hand: A proven starter; a sure thing.
All this talk about analytics, and nobody else seems to understand it. Because McCown is a geezer, they think Paul will decide he has to go.
Well, Josh might not still be around (except maybe as a coach I hope) by the time this team contends again, but his biggest value is his influence on those who will be.
Real analysts consider abstract values such as this. Because they're hard to quantify and assign numbers to doesn't mean they're not real and meaningful---especially in a leader and a quarterback.
Many assume that if Goff or Wentz is the pick, he has to play as soon as possible. Why? Who told you that? And please define that word you use all the time: "Ready".
Ready to overcome point deficits and all-out blitzes? Ready to cope with a disjointed and weak offensive line? Ready as in he only gets smashed to the turf every third or fourth play? Throws almost as many touchdowns as interceptions? Knows what he's seeing more than half the time?
You have a young boxer. You've drilled him to keep his balance, deliver combinations, jab, cover. You have him spar with pillow gloves and headgear, and he's looking pretty good.
He's ready! Match him up with last year's state golden gloves champion! Hurry up!
After he gets out of the hospital, he doesn't come around the gym any more. I wonder why. Just stop it. McCown and RG are ready. The new kid won't be.
If this team had a strong running game and a good defense, he might be ready. If you need him to carry the team, don't even think about it.
This isn't to say that McCown won't be traded for a draft pick. I rather think he will be. But if they take less than a fourth rounder for him, well---that would be dumb.
Now on NFL Radio, speculation is rampant and all over the map. Some think RGIII will come back strong. Others think he'll fail again.
They all pretty much agree that Hue Jackson will tweak the offense to make best use of this guy's unique skills. Wentz has become the odds-on favorite in the draft derby, because he can execute the same plays. I need to mention here: So can McCown.
Others expect the Browns to trade down, now that they've got their quarterback. Some even manage to interpret this signing as a lack of interest in these draftable quarterbacks.
I still hear callers saying they should trade down and just draft some guy named Joe in the fourth or fifth round or so and work on him for four or five years. Yeah, LOTS of franchise guys start that way good grief.
Next year there might be somebody! Doesn't look like it now, but you never know! They just need to keep losing almost every game is all, and they can just draft one then!
Analysts take calculated risks, but don't gamble. They aren't taking RGIII to the bank just yet. As confident as they are in Hue's quarterback-whispering, they can't regard RG3 as more than a 50/50 proposition. They can let him pick a quarterback, but WILL draft one.
Recently, I've wondered what Hue thinks of Paxton Lynch, or even Cardale Jones. You never know, you know?
They don't have the touch or accuracy of the top two. These can be improved, but only so much. It's not as important in the offense Hue ran in Cincinnati as in a West Coast, though.
In Hue's only previous draft, he wanted Kaepernick bad. Kaepernick was kind of like these two guys, though not as huge. All the same warts: Hadnt proven he could make all the reads or sit in a pocket. Great arm, not great anticipation, touch, or accuracy.
He grabbed Carson Palmer because he was simply the best quarterback he could get, but we know who he wanted first.
While like Hawk said, Hue adapts his offenses to his players, it's quite possible that in his heart of hearts, he wants another Cam Newton.
It's even more likely that he believes he can turn just about anybody with the raw traits into one.
Around Cleveland, Cardale gets more love than he's earned. He seemed to actually regress in his final year. Leading his team to a National Championship can't be denied, and yet...and yet...
Lynch is different. He's progressed steadily. Lots if warts, to be sure, but...
Well, I just wonder.
I suspect that Wentz is the main target. Goff could be just as good, but he's not Hue's "type".
What if Dallas or somebody trades up and nabs Wentz? I'm not so sure they'd just take Goff. They could even trade out of that pick, get another second rounder or so, and grab Lynch.
Really, I have no idea. I just know that it's sheer idiocy to ever pass up a quarterback you feel has franchise potential, because if you're good at your job, you'll probably never get that chance again.
Even a trade UP (probably involving Joe Thomas) is possible in order to make sure of Wentz.
As I wrote a couple months ago, the Titans could get a Hall of Fame left tackle and STILL get anybody else they wanted (or trade down again with somebody chasing Goff).
For that, they'd need to pony up their 2017 first round pick too.
At the time I wrote that, I was talking about Goff. And now I can't get Paxton Lynch out of my head. Hue is a real interesting guy. I hope he's as good as he thinks he is.
Josh Gordon and RG3 redux could do some damage in a wild and crazy offense. Hue just might win more than three games next year!
It's irrational to assume that they want to get rid of him simply because RGIII is now on board.
Hue Jackson obviously believes he can salvage Griffin's career, but even if he is certain of it, Sashi and Paul are not. Nor am I. Nor are you.
In addition to being a fantastic mentor for a rookie quarterback, Josh is the bird in the hand: A proven starter; a sure thing.
All this talk about analytics, and nobody else seems to understand it. Because McCown is a geezer, they think Paul will decide he has to go.
Well, Josh might not still be around (except maybe as a coach I hope) by the time this team contends again, but his biggest value is his influence on those who will be.
Real analysts consider abstract values such as this. Because they're hard to quantify and assign numbers to doesn't mean they're not real and meaningful---especially in a leader and a quarterback.
Many assume that if Goff or Wentz is the pick, he has to play as soon as possible. Why? Who told you that? And please define that word you use all the time: "Ready".
Ready to overcome point deficits and all-out blitzes? Ready to cope with a disjointed and weak offensive line? Ready as in he only gets smashed to the turf every third or fourth play? Throws almost as many touchdowns as interceptions? Knows what he's seeing more than half the time?
You have a young boxer. You've drilled him to keep his balance, deliver combinations, jab, cover. You have him spar with pillow gloves and headgear, and he's looking pretty good.
He's ready! Match him up with last year's state golden gloves champion! Hurry up!
After he gets out of the hospital, he doesn't come around the gym any more. I wonder why. Just stop it. McCown and RG are ready. The new kid won't be.
If this team had a strong running game and a good defense, he might be ready. If you need him to carry the team, don't even think about it.
This isn't to say that McCown won't be traded for a draft pick. I rather think he will be. But if they take less than a fourth rounder for him, well---that would be dumb.
Now on NFL Radio, speculation is rampant and all over the map. Some think RGIII will come back strong. Others think he'll fail again.
They all pretty much agree that Hue Jackson will tweak the offense to make best use of this guy's unique skills. Wentz has become the odds-on favorite in the draft derby, because he can execute the same plays. I need to mention here: So can McCown.
Others expect the Browns to trade down, now that they've got their quarterback. Some even manage to interpret this signing as a lack of interest in these draftable quarterbacks.
I still hear callers saying they should trade down and just draft some guy named Joe in the fourth or fifth round or so and work on him for four or five years. Yeah, LOTS of franchise guys start that way good grief.
Next year there might be somebody! Doesn't look like it now, but you never know! They just need to keep losing almost every game is all, and they can just draft one then!
Analysts take calculated risks, but don't gamble. They aren't taking RGIII to the bank just yet. As confident as they are in Hue's quarterback-whispering, they can't regard RG3 as more than a 50/50 proposition. They can let him pick a quarterback, but WILL draft one.
Recently, I've wondered what Hue thinks of Paxton Lynch, or even Cardale Jones. You never know, you know?
They don't have the touch or accuracy of the top two. These can be improved, but only so much. It's not as important in the offense Hue ran in Cincinnati as in a West Coast, though.
In Hue's only previous draft, he wanted Kaepernick bad. Kaepernick was kind of like these two guys, though not as huge. All the same warts: Hadnt proven he could make all the reads or sit in a pocket. Great arm, not great anticipation, touch, or accuracy.
He grabbed Carson Palmer because he was simply the best quarterback he could get, but we know who he wanted first.
While like Hawk said, Hue adapts his offenses to his players, it's quite possible that in his heart of hearts, he wants another Cam Newton.
It's even more likely that he believes he can turn just about anybody with the raw traits into one.
Around Cleveland, Cardale gets more love than he's earned. He seemed to actually regress in his final year. Leading his team to a National Championship can't be denied, and yet...and yet...
Lynch is different. He's progressed steadily. Lots if warts, to be sure, but...
Well, I just wonder.
I suspect that Wentz is the main target. Goff could be just as good, but he's not Hue's "type".
What if Dallas or somebody trades up and nabs Wentz? I'm not so sure they'd just take Goff. They could even trade out of that pick, get another second rounder or so, and grab Lynch.
Really, I have no idea. I just know that it's sheer idiocy to ever pass up a quarterback you feel has franchise potential, because if you're good at your job, you'll probably never get that chance again.
Even a trade UP (probably involving Joe Thomas) is possible in order to make sure of Wentz.
As I wrote a couple months ago, the Titans could get a Hall of Fame left tackle and STILL get anybody else they wanted (or trade down again with somebody chasing Goff).
For that, they'd need to pony up their 2017 first round pick too.
At the time I wrote that, I was talking about Goff. And now I can't get Paxton Lynch out of my head. Hue is a real interesting guy. I hope he's as good as he thinks he is.
Josh Gordon and RG3 redux could do some damage in a wild and crazy offense. Hue just might win more than three games next year!
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
Obtusity and the Browns
Let's see how many hits that title gets. Maybe I can sucker in some permabashers.
Anyway, on NFL Radio, an intelligent Browns fan (yes there are some) called in with his take on the Browns apparent pursuit of RG3:
They think they can sign him to a two year contract, and salvage him. They believe they can pick him up for free, then turn him into a draft pick.
Meanwhile, they still draft Goff or Wentz, but don't play them, and retain Josh McCown.
This co-host, Murray, says "I don't understand how that makes any sense".
Well, I'm here to help Corky Murray out:
1: The Browns starting quarterback will be stepping into a big mess. He will play from behind, and defenses will swamp his blockers (such as they are) on their way into the backfield to stop him OR his running back.
They don't want to use a rookie.
2: Griffin costs zero draft picks and a small salary. If he doesn't pan out, who cares? If he does, he can be cashed in for a draft pick.
"I don't understand why you'd find this starting quarterback and then just get rid of him".
3: Because the number two overall quarterback is under contract for five years, is four or five years younger, was the real target in the first place, and is expected to be better than Griffin in time.
"Oh, so they keep McCown, and he and Griffin compete for the number two spot?"
4: My God this guy's an onion! Layer upon layer of deeper and deeper obtusity! The old guys compete to START because the rookie would get tow up!!
More than before, I now think that one of the reasons Hue Jackson is supporting the geeks in the front office so enthusiastically is that he's already decided to run a new offense intended to minimize a weak and uncoordinated offensive line with a mobile quarterback.
Hue believes he can put up some points with the people he'll have left, if he does it right.
It's a strategy to be at least competitive during a rebuild. You can see it on his face, and hear it in his voice. He thinks he can do that with a Kaepernick or an RG3. Hue is, in fact, probably the driving force behind these recruiting efforts! Not the analytics guys! Do you even know who you're calling an idiot?
Now, if I wanted to get the most I could in a trade for Joe Thomas, I would say we're keeping him, period. And wait for phone calls.
Somebody else beat me to the Seattle rumor. The most likely suitors for Thomas would be teams who feel close to a Superbowl. Generally, that means contenders who draft in the bottom third.
The Seahawks happened to be the most likely team I thought of. Joe Thomas would help them right now a lot more than any player in this draft they could get with their first round pick.
Seattle might offer their 2016 second rounder (56th overall), their first rounder next year (they hope 32nd overall), and maybe a 2017 4th rounder.
They got compensatory picks this year, and have two third rounders and then some.
For the Seahawks, that's a Hall of Fame left tackle, an instant impact first round pick, then two third rounders with interest. It could buy them a Superbowl.
For the Browns, that 2016 second rounder could be a Stringer; a future left tackle, or a Hunter Henry; stud tight end. And two first round picks on deck for next season.
One team on the cusp. The other rebuilding. That's how deals are made.
Now, what if the Browns manage to win 4 games, and lose the rest despite RG3's heroics? What's a rehabbed RG3 worth?
Third round pick, maybe? Second? Ok a fourth. Better than nothing, right?
These guys all talking about analytics mostly don't grok what it really is. That's part of it! When you're not going to have a pocket, play without one! Get the players who can do it! Get them dirt cheap out of the bargain bin!
Then cash them in! Adapt! Maximize! Create value and cash it in!
You can tell it's real complicated, because even the geniuses on NFL Radio can't comprehend it.
Anyway, on NFL Radio, an intelligent Browns fan (yes there are some) called in with his take on the Browns apparent pursuit of RG3:
They think they can sign him to a two year contract, and salvage him. They believe they can pick him up for free, then turn him into a draft pick.
Meanwhile, they still draft Goff or Wentz, but don't play them, and retain Josh McCown.
This co-host, Murray, says "I don't understand how that makes any sense".
Well, I'm here to help Corky Murray out:
1: The Browns starting quarterback will be stepping into a big mess. He will play from behind, and defenses will swamp his blockers (such as they are) on their way into the backfield to stop him OR his running back.
They don't want to use a rookie.
2: Griffin costs zero draft picks and a small salary. If he doesn't pan out, who cares? If he does, he can be cashed in for a draft pick.
"I don't understand why you'd find this starting quarterback and then just get rid of him".
3: Because the number two overall quarterback is under contract for five years, is four or five years younger, was the real target in the first place, and is expected to be better than Griffin in time.
"Oh, so they keep McCown, and he and Griffin compete for the number two spot?"
4: My God this guy's an onion! Layer upon layer of deeper and deeper obtusity! The old guys compete to START because the rookie would get tow up!!
More than before, I now think that one of the reasons Hue Jackson is supporting the geeks in the front office so enthusiastically is that he's already decided to run a new offense intended to minimize a weak and uncoordinated offensive line with a mobile quarterback.
Hue believes he can put up some points with the people he'll have left, if he does it right.
It's a strategy to be at least competitive during a rebuild. You can see it on his face, and hear it in his voice. He thinks he can do that with a Kaepernick or an RG3. Hue is, in fact, probably the driving force behind these recruiting efforts! Not the analytics guys! Do you even know who you're calling an idiot?
Now, if I wanted to get the most I could in a trade for Joe Thomas, I would say we're keeping him, period. And wait for phone calls.
Somebody else beat me to the Seattle rumor. The most likely suitors for Thomas would be teams who feel close to a Superbowl. Generally, that means contenders who draft in the bottom third.
The Seahawks happened to be the most likely team I thought of. Joe Thomas would help them right now a lot more than any player in this draft they could get with their first round pick.
Seattle might offer their 2016 second rounder (56th overall), their first rounder next year (they hope 32nd overall), and maybe a 2017 4th rounder.
They got compensatory picks this year, and have two third rounders and then some.
For the Seahawks, that's a Hall of Fame left tackle, an instant impact first round pick, then two third rounders with interest. It could buy them a Superbowl.
For the Browns, that 2016 second rounder could be a Stringer; a future left tackle, or a Hunter Henry; stud tight end. And two first round picks on deck for next season.
One team on the cusp. The other rebuilding. That's how deals are made.
Now, what if the Browns manage to win 4 games, and lose the rest despite RG3's heroics? What's a rehabbed RG3 worth?
Third round pick, maybe? Second? Ok a fourth. Better than nothing, right?
These guys all talking about analytics mostly don't grok what it really is. That's part of it! When you're not going to have a pocket, play without one! Get the players who can do it! Get them dirt cheap out of the bargain bin!
Then cash them in! Adapt! Maximize! Create value and cash it in!
You can tell it's real complicated, because even the geniuses on NFL Radio can't comprehend it.
Monday, March 21, 2016
RG3, Wentz, Goff, and the Browns
A few things on RG3 that nobody else, anywhere, is talking about:
1: It takes up to two years for an ACL and some other injuries to fully heal. This is why Travis Benjamin had a so-so 2014, and then went nuts in 2015. RG3 wasn't all the way back last season.
2: The Grudens run a West Coast passing game. RG3 likes to go deep. Kirk Cousins is more a West Coast type.
3: Hue Jackson runs a vertical passing scheme better suited to what RG3 likes.
4: Hue Jackson is, by all accounts, flexible and creative. He could well mix in some read-option concepts and rollouts to make best use of an RG3 or a Kaepernick.
Now, with the destruction of the offensive line, Hue will definitely have to use some West Coast to get rid of the ball within the few nanoseconds the quarterback will have, but the aforementioned adaptations can also help by buying time and punishing defenses that overcommit to quarterbackcide.
There are real concerns about both these banged up fallen angels. With RG3, assertions have been made that he was uncooperative and selfish, and may not have worked as hard as he needed to in film study.
I don't know about that, but do know that RG3 is not Johnny Manswell, that Hue Jackson is a quarterback-whisperer, and that people (especially smart people like RG) change as they mature.
Of note here us the fact that Josh Gordon was his go-to guy at Baylor before he got himself kicked off the team.
I still believe that the Browns will draft Goff or Wentz even if they sign RG3. The tweaks that Hue would probably make to the offense for RG would give Wentz a slight edge, because he's growing into a huge guy who can run around and execute this scheme.
As for which is the best pick between Goff and Wentz, former quarterback and coach Rick Newheisel made me undecided again.
He's followed Goff for a long time. He describes Goff's arm as "Montana-esque", meaning superb touch, accuracy, and anticipation (his arm is much stronger than Joe's).
He literally raves about Goff as a can't miss franchise guy. He likes Wentz a lot too, but between the two is all-in with Goff.
The guys on NFL Radio are talking about who might trade up to screw the Browns out of their quarterback, but it's possible that Hue is kind of undecided too, and would take either.
Before Hue took over as the Bengals offensive coordinator, the Red Popgun was being burned in effigy in Cincinnati. As we saw, in 2015 the kid was absolutely lethal, ranking near the top of the NFL in every statistical category.
The talent of RG3, Goff, and Wentz puts Dalton to shame, and I have to wonder what Hue might accomplish here.
If I thought I was a big expert, I'd opine that the pursuit of Kaepernick and RG3 makes no sense, but I know my limitations. It will take some real swings and misses to start me second-guessing Hue and these other guys.
The one thing the ex-quarterbacks I hear from agree on: If anybody can salvage a lost quarterback, or coach up a rookie, it's Hue Jackson.
Let's see what happens.
1: It takes up to two years for an ACL and some other injuries to fully heal. This is why Travis Benjamin had a so-so 2014, and then went nuts in 2015. RG3 wasn't all the way back last season.
2: The Grudens run a West Coast passing game. RG3 likes to go deep. Kirk Cousins is more a West Coast type.
3: Hue Jackson runs a vertical passing scheme better suited to what RG3 likes.
4: Hue Jackson is, by all accounts, flexible and creative. He could well mix in some read-option concepts and rollouts to make best use of an RG3 or a Kaepernick.
Now, with the destruction of the offensive line, Hue will definitely have to use some West Coast to get rid of the ball within the few nanoseconds the quarterback will have, but the aforementioned adaptations can also help by buying time and punishing defenses that overcommit to quarterbackcide.
There are real concerns about both these banged up fallen angels. With RG3, assertions have been made that he was uncooperative and selfish, and may not have worked as hard as he needed to in film study.
I don't know about that, but do know that RG3 is not Johnny Manswell, that Hue Jackson is a quarterback-whisperer, and that people (especially smart people like RG) change as they mature.
Of note here us the fact that Josh Gordon was his go-to guy at Baylor before he got himself kicked off the team.
I still believe that the Browns will draft Goff or Wentz even if they sign RG3. The tweaks that Hue would probably make to the offense for RG would give Wentz a slight edge, because he's growing into a huge guy who can run around and execute this scheme.
As for which is the best pick between Goff and Wentz, former quarterback and coach Rick Newheisel made me undecided again.
He's followed Goff for a long time. He describes Goff's arm as "Montana-esque", meaning superb touch, accuracy, and anticipation (his arm is much stronger than Joe's).
He literally raves about Goff as a can't miss franchise guy. He likes Wentz a lot too, but between the two is all-in with Goff.
The guys on NFL Radio are talking about who might trade up to screw the Browns out of their quarterback, but it's possible that Hue is kind of undecided too, and would take either.
Before Hue took over as the Bengals offensive coordinator, the Red Popgun was being burned in effigy in Cincinnati. As we saw, in 2015 the kid was absolutely lethal, ranking near the top of the NFL in every statistical category.
The talent of RG3, Goff, and Wentz puts Dalton to shame, and I have to wonder what Hue might accomplish here.
If I thought I was a big expert, I'd opine that the pursuit of Kaepernick and RG3 makes no sense, but I know my limitations. It will take some real swings and misses to start me second-guessing Hue and these other guys.
The one thing the ex-quarterbacks I hear from agree on: If anybody can salvage a lost quarterback, or coach up a rookie, it's Hue Jackson.
Let's see what happens.
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