Monday, July 6, 2015

How Not to Analyze the Cleveland Browns

I won't include a link to this terrible article by an author who for his own good will remain nameless, but it's entitled "The Cleveland Browns: Three Reasons Why they Won't Make the Playoffs in 2015".

After the obligatory three-paragraph rehash of the 2014 season, the dull hatchet came out:

"The team also suffered crushing losses like Jordan Cameron going to Miami, Buster Skrine going to the Jets, and Josh Gordon being suspended again for the entire NFL season.  The team looks to move forward despite these huge losses---"

I italicized the adjectives to show you how bad writers exaggerate a lot.

Jordan Cameron was on the bench more than he played.  Gordon was so ineffective that the team was better without him than with him.  Skrine is an excellent cornerback, but the current Browns are going to have to cut some excellent cornerbacks because they're eyeball-deep in them.

Reason number one was uncertainty at quarterback.  That one is too obvious for me to call BS.  I can name at least twenty quarterbacks I'd prefer over Josh McCown.  I'm hopeful about Manziel, but really just don't know.  He's coming from far behind experience-wise, and if he does become ready this season, it could be late.

However, this writer cites the lack of talent around him on this roster as the reason he will fail.  Just one more repeat: He has succeeded everywhere he has had a good OFFENSIVE LINE.  Receivers were far less impactful.

But even his implicit disrespect for the skill players was ignorant.  This will basically be a West Coast offense intended to exploit the small playmaking wide receivers like Hawk and Gabriel on crossing patterns that will get them open in space and right in front of McCown,

The bigger receivers, while not burners, can threaten the deeper sidelines because they can make catches with people hanging all over them.

McCown will be handing off, pitching out, throwing to the flats and short passes between the hashes most of the time.  And guys like Housler and the Johnsons will pop into existance in this writer's brain during preseason.  He'll say "who's that?"

Reason number two is the brutal schedule.  Look this up: Schedule is a weak indicator, as teams change--sometimes a lot--from season to season.  How common is it that last season's 11-5 is this season's 7-9 and vice-versa?

"Expect the team to struggle mightily as they will not match up well with teams that were ranked top ten offensively and defensively".

See previous paragraph.  The Browns have loaded up on run-stoppers and will obviously rank in the top ten themselves defensively.  With a healthy Alex Mack they also had a top ten offense last season, and every skill position except tight end has been upgraded and deepened significantly.

Reason number three was (sigh) Lack of playmakers.

They did, he stipulates, do a great job of loading up with Randy Starks and company, but they didn't massively overpay Brandon Marshall!

He calls Hartline and Bowe "decent additions", but points out that neither can be difference-makers.  Fair enough, but along with blaming Housler for an early injury and a new Head Coach who doesn't use players with his skills, he also ignores Duke Johnson, Gabriel, Hawkins and potentially Vincent Mayle.  For that matter, if Terrelle Pryor can catch the ball, he'll probably make this team!

Not all playmakers are tall wide receivers.  A playmaker is a guy who can take it to the house from anywhere on the field at any given time, period, and this season's Browns have a bunch of them in an offensive system designed to give them those chances.

Hatchet-man's conclusion is 6-10.  So a 7-9 team quarterbacked by Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel last season, having significantly upgraded their offensive and defensive lines, wide receivers and running backs, entering the second year of their defensive system will get worse.

Stick a fork in yourself, writer to be named never.  You're done.

Micheal Middlehurst-Schwartze (USA Today Sports) is the other side of this coin, as he wrote a well-researched and objective article about the Browns' prospects.  I didn't 100% agree with all of it, as he once again leaves Gabriel and Hawkins out of the "playmaker" equation...but wow--he actually mentioned Housler as a talented guy!

After reading the aforementioned trash, it was great to read something by a person who at least does his homework and thinks with his brain.

On a lighter note, this article by Bleacher Report's Andrea Hangst, was pretty good.  "Five Dark Horse candidates to make the Browns final 53-man roster".

Her first pick is kind of wasted on cornerback ahem...Ifo Ekpre-Olamu.  Andrea says that his injury might not prevent him from participating in training camp this year, which is why 53 instead of IR.

But the Browns even now have too many cornerbacks on the roster, and the medical redshirt is just logical. 

Offensive lineman Tyler Loos was a guy under my radar.  Andrea says that he can play up to four offensive line positions and save a roster spot.

What little I could find on Loos was sketchy, but he allowed one sack as left tackle for the Northern Illinois Huskies.  He may or not have the footspeed to play tackle at this level, and his workouts were unimpressive.

On paper at least, he doesn't look like a zone-blocker.  I could be wrong, and Ray Farmer was interested enough in him to get him in here.  We'll see.

Next was running back Luke Lundy, a guy with long hair and muscles that's very interesting.  He excelled at a small school and projects to fullback per the consensus of scouts.

His workouts were actually very good, indicating explosiveness.  His 40 times were 4.52 and 4.73 but forget that: He ran a 4.52, and you tend to run your fastest with people trying to tackle you, ok?

Andrea sees him only as a running back, but I feel he could make it because he may be a good fullback as well, and the only player listed on the team site at fullback is Malcom Johnson.

Like Andrea, I think he has a shot, but Glen Winston is a veteran who has done some things.  Duke Johnson, Crowell, and West aren't going anywhere (unless Ray can squeeze some good stuff out of Jerry Jones or somebody else for West in a trade), and Winston is currently number four.

To date, Flip has implied that he'll use a move tight end a lot, and also a pass-catching fullback.  Even if Luke rocks out in preseason, he probably won't make it unless he shows that he can catch passes and block.

Next is smurf receiver Darius Jennings.  Andrea says he rushed 24 times in 2014, and that this proven ability in Flip's offense could land him a spot.

It's possible that this little guy could force the Browns to carry six wide receivers on the final 53.  Things look grimmer and grimmer for Travis Benjamin.

My first impulse was to dismiss this guy, but that was my Hawkins and Gabriel prejudice coming out.  I mean, how many smurfs do you need?

As Andrea implies, as many playmakers as you can get.  Point taken.  He's a home run hitter.  

For him, the bad news might be who's next up: Terrelle Pryor who, regardless of how they label him, is a potential home run threat who is also 6'4".

Odds are massively against this guy making the 48-man roster, but if he shows that he can catch the ball (the patterns etc. are money in the bank if he works at it by the way), he could well make the final 53 as a project.  (Update: this is wrong: Pryor does not qualify for the practice squad, and the final 48 might be his only chance.)

After Ray screwed up horribly last season by trying to sneak Charles Johnson onto the practice squad and losing him, I doubt that he'll try that with Pryor (if he can catch).

4.38 do you get that?  Basketball star does that help?  240 lbs?  Who's that guy in Detroit Calvin Johnson?  

Pryor won't be that this season, of course, as he's learning a new position from the ground up.  But he's taking lessons from Antonio Brown and Randy Moss.  Moss, especially, can show Pryor the ropes, as he can do everything Moss did in his heyday.

If he can catch.

Imagine in 2016 a hopefully in shape Josh Gordon and a ready-for-primetime Pryor coming into camp together.

Even for this season, however, Pryor could see limited action, depending on the opposing defense.  He can run a wildcat offense right NOW.

Something else to consider here is the fact that players can be spoon-fed plays one at a time.  Long before he has mastered his route treeS (they've almost GOT TO use him at move tight end and h-back too), he will nail down some of the simpler/easier things first, and can be used in those situations.

Right away, they could send him deep:  "You just go for the goal post no matter what anybody else does.  The single high will have to stay back in front of you because you'll blow the corner's doors off, and we might throw it to you anyway."

A safety playing deep can't tackle anybody, see?  A cornerback in pursuit can't break off a guy like this, so he's out of the picture as well.  Even as a decoy, Pryor could be used immediately.  

If he can catch.

I like Andrea's thinking on all these guys, except maybe Olamu, who I think will be redshirted.

Her reference to Loos made me think about versatility on the offensive line, too.  Micheal Bowie can play guard or tackle.  For that matter, so can Mitchell Schwartze.  Cam Erving, who I see as a starter, plays every position, and John Greco can as well (although you don't want him at left tackle).

For that matter, Bitonio can play anywhere too.

It's a given that whoever loses his starting gig to Erving will be ready to step in at multiple positions and play well, and that a pretty good former starter (Bowie) will find himself in the same situation.  This means that the Browns could have only seven active offensive linemen on game day, so they could activate more guys elsewhere.

Per this Bleacher Report article by Marc Lillibridge, most teams carry nine active offensive linemen.

They also carry two quarterbacks, and this is where Pryor might come in as the emergency guy.

They carry four running backs, sometimes including a fullback, 6 wide recievers, and three tight ends.  Well here comes Pryor again, because he can be a WR/TE and there's some FB-HB overlap where he fits as well.

Next are Malcom Johnson and potentially EJ Bibbs (Bibbs is an H-back/TE who might be able to play fullback as well).

The final breakdown for this particular team in this particular system could be seven offensive linemen, three running backs, one tight end, two quarterbacks, 5 wide receivers, Pryor, M Johnson, and Bibbs (total 24). 

How this offense is being built, and DeFellipo is setting it up, is pretty exciting.  I didn't even mention that Duke Johnson will line up as a wide receiver sometimes.  Opposing offenses will have a hard time anticipating it because they can't be sure what the Johnsons (and maybe Bibbs) will do.

He's even having the smurf receivers line up in the backfield and take pitchouts and handoffs.  He's playing with big guys inside and little guys outside.

But I digress.  For a 3-4 base, Marc says seven or eight defensive linemen, but Pettine runs a 4-3 as well.  Danny Shelton is a true nose tackle who can play defensive tackle as well.  Kitchen, inexplicably listed at DE, is a nose tackle.  The rest of the guys can play either 3-4 DE slot or DT, so they could, of they wanted to, carry fewer defensive linemen.

Don't knock Mike Pettine for carrying 11 defensive backs.  In today's NFL, Six and occasionally even seven are on the field sometimes.  Defensive backs also tend to be integral to special teams coverage units because they run fast and can tackle.

All of this brings me back to Terrelle Pryor (if he can catch).

I would now bet money on him making the final ACTIVE roster.

If he can catch.


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