Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Cleveland Browns: Trying to Find Stuff to Write About

Without anything happening, I almost wish Manziel would get in a fight or something.  Nah.

But in my never-ending search for Browns' stuff, old reliable Andrea Hangst came up with five key stats on the 2014 Browns defense.

Their horrific performance against the run was no surprise, of course.  But Andrea did surprise me by actually going out on a limb and (citing Shelton/a healthy Taylor/Starks and a couple more) predicting that they'd do better this season.

Wow that took guts!  Not everybody has the courage to state the obviously inevitable.  (Not picking on Andrea-just everybody else).

Only 102 missed tackles!  This stunned me, because to me it looked like they blew a lot of them!  This means more than Andrea went into:  They must have been out of position.  Interesting that Carlos Dansby is citing that as something he/they need to improve on.

This is good news.  They're going into the second season of the same defensive system.  Kirksey has a year under his belt.  

Opposing QBR sucked ok.  Sacks 31 fair enough.  Andrea corrects me somewhat in pointing out that opposing offenses did pass a lot against this defense, despite their ability to run all over it.

Still, because of the run and (as Andrea herself points out) the mediocre Browns offense, opposing offenses were balanced, and able to avoid obvious passing situations.  So I repeat:  The defense was unable to really attack the quarterback.

Pettine's defenses are always really aggressive, with at least the 3-4 defensive ends seeking penetration.  Because of this, he won't blitze as much as most 3-4's do, and at least one linebacker will play off the line, ready for coverage.

Kruger did an amazing job last season, but was often a down defensive end.  Even when he wasn't, he was usually a dedicated fourth passrusher, doing what he does best.

In a second or third and long, Pettine will dial up the blitze, and on the relatively few occasions last season when he had opposing quarterbacks in that position, they got to them.

The Browns allowed 21 points per game, which was among the fewest in the NFL.  As Andrea says, this is pretty important.  Let me channel John Madden here:

You see, the team that scores the most points in a game wins.  Everybody knows that, but here's something they obviously don't know:  When you don't allow the other team to score more points than your offense can score, you can win that way too!

Again, like Bud Carson, Mike Pettine believes in playing defensive football in the opponent's backfield.  Like Carson's defenses, his will never rank really high against the run.  Carson's defenses also got torched for some big passes as well, but that won't happen here.

Carson and Pettine are after tackles for losses, fumbles, and interceptions.  The attacking linemen will open gaps for running backs or scramblers to exploit.  Schematically, those gaps are supposed to be covered by linebackers and safeties, but in the chaos of flying bodies, they sometimes simply won't be there, or won't be set up well enough to make the stop.

That is and always will be the trade-off.  Points allowed is the only statistic that really matters here, and 8th in the NFL really was how good this defense was in Pettine's first season.

Is any of this sinking in?

Vincent Rapisardi (Dawg Pound Daily) wrote an excellent article comparing how the Browns are being built to how the Seahawks were built.  He says the Browns have a championship roster (except for quarterback) and he is correct.

If your reaction is scoffing and laughter, you are irrational or superstitious.

Anyway, Vincent wisely went out of his way to spell out that he was not predicting that the Browns would go to the Superbowl this season.  The Browns don't have Russell Wilson.  You can cross your fingers for Johnny Manziel, but if he ever does become a franchise guy, it will probably take too long to make a difference this early in his career.

Notable for me was his comparison on the two corps of wide receivers.  They're both solid but unspectacular.

But this same writer (Rapisardi) also wrote an article on Barkevious Mingo that kind of disappointed me.

Vincent believes that this could be a do-or-die year for Mingo for all the obvious reasons. 

He's correct in thinking that the emergence of Solomon, addition of Nate Orchard etc. may make Mingo expendable, but this isn't all that's involved here.

Pettine calling him the best outside linebacker in coverage was not a throwaway line, and does matter.  Tight ends and some h-backs are typically 6'5", 250 lbs and are hell for safeties or inside linebackers to try to cover.

There is no other player on this roster who matches up as well with these guys as Mingo, and it's not even close.

As I said earlier in this same entry, this is not a typical 3-4.  I'll go further here, and tell you that two Paul Krugers are not mandatory for it to work according to plan.

As I've said in previous entries, the 3-4 base is nominal, and might only be on the field 33% of the time, being replaced by nickles and dimes and fronts everywhere from 1-5 to 4-1.

Mingo's unique and versatile skill-set makes him much more valuable to Mike Pettine than he would have been to a Dick LeBeau.

Nor are Mingo's passrushing days over.  I look forward to seeing what he can do with both arms, and in more passing situations.  He remains the fastest and quickest outside linebacker on this team, and now that he's healthy might blitze at least half as often as he covers.

Finally, unless Mingo does have a great season, odds are pretty good that he can be re-signed for a reasonable long-term deal that won't really reflect his true value (sorry Barky business is business).

In this article by Andrew Gribble, he talks about Strongsville grad and Arena Football defensive back Brandon Stephens, who is trying to make the team as an undrafted free agent.

This was a human interest story free of pesky details.  Based on the scanty results my search turned up, my best guess is that he is between 5'10" and 5'11", 197 to 205 lbs., and can run a low 4.5 40.

Since Kurt Werner, I get a little extra-interested in some Arena players.  Some people don't realize that playing in that league might have been very good for Werner, as his strongest assets were his quick release and short accuracy and touch.

Arena football is played on a much shorter field, making the whole passing game short and quick.

It's possible that this may have honed Brandon Stephens into a real NFL prospect at both cornerback and safety.  His size and long speed are fine for the NFL, but in covering all these short quick-hitters, he may have become something special.

Of course, I'm just wildly guessing, because I can't get any concrete information on him.  But now if he accomplishes anything in the NFL, I can say I told you so.

Finally, when a promoter organizes an event, he does it to make money.  One of the ways he does that is by charging for autographs.  Johnny is being good.  Quit picking on him.


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