Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Cleveland Browns Analytical Corrections

I'm now pretty sure that Andrea Hangst of the Bleacher Report isn't among those who steal thoughts and ideas from my blog.  She's wrong about stuff I've enlightened my legion of fans (I hit double digits a couple weeks ago) about.

She's really pretty good, and these errors are minor.

In the linked article, she breaks down the Browns defensive depth chart, and does a pretty good job of it.

She was mostly right about the defensive line: Phil Taylor and Danny Shelton should share the load at nose tackle.

But she has Randy Starks and Kitchen backing those two.  Kitchen yes, Starks no.  Randy Starks can play nose tackle, but is wasted there, and all three of the other guys are probably more effective human fire hydrants.

She has Armonty Bryant stepping back in at DE when the Browns morph to a 4-3 and that's about right, unless Orchard can steal some snaps from him.

She lists the returning vets (Des Bryant/Hughes/Winn) as the primaries at 3-4 DE, but that's another minor mistake: Xavier Cooper has more physical talent than all of the above, and it won't take him long to get deep into this rotation on both run and pass downs.

In point of fact, Desmond Bryant rated poorly against the run last season, and might well cede running down snaps to none other than Cooper.

She's pretty accurate about the outside linebackers, except Listen: Paul Kruger isn't very good in coverage.

But I'm glad she gave Solomon his props, and sees him playing a lot.  She later mentions Darius Eubanks, who might make the team because he can play inside or outside.  So can Solomon.

Great call on the inside linebackers being underrated, and there are three of them.  She informed me that Kirksey and Dansby were PFF's top two ILB's in coverage too--wow.

Safety is pretty obvious.  I'm glad that Jordon Poyer is getting all these extra reps while Gipson gets healthy.  Gipson won't give up his starting job, but Poyer will be ready for primetime if he or Whitner get hurt.  This is good news as Whitner ages (and I suspect they'll take some snaps off him this season to keep him rested), and Gipson's return for 2016 isn't guaranteed.

She makes a good point about Bademosi.  It's possible that Ibraheim Campbell could make him expendable.  I kind of doubt that, though: Bademosi is really exceptional on special teams, and they might well "make room" for him.

Campbell is rediculously underrated as a safety (and I mean cover two or free too), and should actually play some downs (and make some plays) even as a rookie.

At cornerback, she (sigh) once again talks about a battle for the nickel corner slot between the 6', 202 lb. Justin Gilbert and lilipution K'Waun Williams.

This is pretty simple: Hawkins or Gabriel, and for that matter almost every slot reciever, is undersized for a reason.  That reason is that they are too damn quick and explosive for most cornerbacks to cover tight.

This is why (stay with me here) most nickel cornerbacks are also little guys, because they have a better chance of at least staying close enough to them to prevent big plays.

Gilbert is indeed being worked in the slot, but that's because some teams sometimes put taller players (like Brian Hartline) in the slot.  

Justin Gilbert has rare quickness for his size, and can run with anybody.  But his very size and height put him at a disadvantage against Williams vs. conventional slot receivers.

And I like Tramon Williams a lot, and know they paid him a lot of money.  But it is NOT etched in stone that Gilbert can't beat him out to start opposite Joe Haden.  

Williams had a great season last year, but he's THIRTY TWO.  That's really old for a cornerback.  Don't throw Whitner at me: Safety and cornerback are much different positions.  Corners rely on quickness and recovery speed, and as all players age, this is the first thing they lose.

"Lose a step" is highly accurate, because that's how it happens.  They can't sink and explode as quickly, and they're two or three feet behind the guy they could be all over the year before.  They also get slower as games progress.

All of this is especially true on a team that relies heavily on press/man coverage like Mike Pettine's Cleveland Browns.

If Tramon Williams can play like he did last season (and I wouldn't mind that at all--I got no favorites), he's the one that's beating the odds.  Justin Gilbert is breathing down his neck, right now.

I don't believe that Mike Pettine is a *Martonian.  I believe he really will honest-to-God start the best player period.

In conclusion, Andrea gets a B.

*Martonian: Like Marty Schottenheimer.

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