Before I get to why the Browns need to keep Terrelle Pryor if he shows any promise at all in real traffic, I've got to bash a hit-piece on the Browns:
Another writer who should remain nameless offered fantasy advice on the Browns. Well not really. I won't bother repeating his idiocy, but will just make some statements:
Josh McCown succeeds with a good offensive line and fails without one. For most of his career, he has spent a lot of time on his back. It is hard to look good that way. Idiot.
Brian Hartline is 28 years old. Cretin.
Rob Housler played for Bruce Ariens. Jackass.
The blind squirrel likes Duke Johnson a lot, and the defense somewhat.
My own fantasy advice for the Browns would be Housler, the defense, and maye Duke. I wouldn't take any of the wide receivers. I might think about Crowell, since he might get the goal-line carries.
After reading that pile of excrement, it was nice to read this article by Casey Drottar in Rant Sports.
I haven't seen Terrelle Pryor's workout tapes, but Casey has. He's looking really good, and has already worked out with Josh McCown (who is always ready to help anybody, any time).
It's true that it's a whole different story when the pads go on and people are hitting, so we have yet to really see what Pryor can really do.
But he was a quarterback, used to being chased around and hit. It's still football. It is possible that Pryor turns out to be one of those receivers who "hears footsteps" or can't relax his hands under pressure, but Casey and I think he can do it.
Basketball players do a lot of catching. They catch a bigger, rounder, heavier ball, often in traffic. Usually when a guy is a basketball star, I figure the catching part is a good bet. That's probably why Terrelle caught some of his practice catches one-handed on his tapes. If you can palm a basketball, you can do that too.
He's got everybody convinced that he really means business here, and is doing all he can as fast as he can to catch up.
That might not be enough--technically. He does have a lot of lost ground to cover to really compete with the other recievers and H-backs. As of game one, he might not be ready for primetime.
But I'll tell you what: Pettine, Farmer, Flip etc. will know whether or not he can do it, and if he can, they need to keep him anyway.
Remember Josh Gordon (in his first and second seasons?) Pryor is capable of doing everything he did, and probably more. He's an inch taller and ten pounds heavier. He's also faster.
Just because a guy isn't ready to set a bunch of records in game one doesn't mean you've got to release him. Not if, at the latest, by game one of the next season you know he'll be ready.
Oh, Pettine has to worry about his job, so he's got to win now?
So what? Is keeping Pryor instead of your fifth or sixth reciever or your fourth tight end or h-back or whatever going to cost you one game or something? C'mon, Mike!
And anyway, Haslam has this reputation as having an itchy trigger finger why? Because he didn't like the original front office the NFL stuck him with and fired them?
One incident? One time. I don't think so. Jimmy doesn't want to fire anybody if he can help it. He understands the value of continuity as well as anyone. If he didn't learn it in business, he learned it as a minority owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
So yeah, Mike and Ray: See if he can function when the bullets are flying, and if he can, keep him. No matter what.
I personally feel that Terrelle would indeed see gradually more action throughout his very first season at receiver, and do some damage. He might not have been born to play quarterback, but looks a lot like he was born to be a big-time game-changing playmaker.
You don't want those guys to come back and haunt you.
What do you say then: "Well he wasn't that good when we had him last year...uhh..."
THAT will get you fired RAY? RAY?
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
Saturday, July 25, 2015
Stuff We Missed About Mike Pettine's Defense
I was surprised when Danny Shelton talked about the attacking nature of Mike Pettine's 3-4 defensive line.
Oh, I knew that the ends would attack at 3 and 5, but figured the nose tackle would read and react. But no, Shelton implied that he was being asked to seek penetration as well.
And so I repeat: Mike Pettine's defenses will never rank among the elites in stopping the run.
As I've said, that's fine with me, since the trade-off is "confusion to the enemy", more turnovers, better performance against the pass, and better field position.
The attacking defensive linemen expose the inside linebackers to the guards on runs. While I'm sure that there will be a plan for each 3-man rush designed to minimize weak spots, there are guys on the other side of the line who anticipate that, and can mess it up.
Most running backs and some quarterbacks can run circles around defensive linemen--even the Browns'. That's part of the plan, of course: Forcing them to waste more time trying to get around the ponderous monsters while the balance of the defense converges.
A conventional nose tackle engages the center with a vertical push. Because he overmatches that guy, a guard normally helps out, creating a big plug in the middle of the defense, and preventing the guard from getting his hat on a linebacker.
I believe what Shelton (and Phil Taylor) will do will be to pick a shoulder and attack that instead. It sounds like a tiny thing, but it's really not. The center has to reposition his feet to stop him, and is instantly on the defensive.
If successful, Shelton or Taylor will have their pads or at least their helmets over the actual line of scrimmage before the guard can reach them.
The guards are allowed to set up a little behind the line, but the idea is to deprive them of a good angle, and prevent the guard from actually getting in front of the nose tackle.
That is, to make the guard hit them from the side, more than from the front. If it works, this lets the nose preserve his momentum for further penetration and mayhem.
Phil Taylor did this as a rookie (when he wasn't supposed to) and we all saw what havoc he rote. Then he seemed to disappear and opposing offenses ran all over the defense.
That's because that was a conventional 3-4, and Taylor wasn't sticking with the plan. Once opposing offenses had some game tape to look at, they saw Taylor expose big gaps they could exploit.
They gave up using the guard on him and sent him after a linebacker instead. The center "rode" Taylor out of the predesigned play, and the running back went where he wasn't and where the guard was all over DQwell Jackson.
But Taylor showed what he could do, didn't he? He's a much better fit for Pettine's scheme, and can do exactly the same thing.
If the other two linemen are doing the same thing, there can be no predictable hole to exploit.
Of course, Pettine can't count on uniform penetration, so holes will appear, and there will be some painful runs. Offensive coordinators are also very smart, and will pull stuff to short-circuit this attack. One example is a matadore block--letting the guy get by and then using his own momentum against him to ride him out of the play (which of course goes right behind him).
No scheme is bullet-proof. Against the pass, Pettine wants constant pressure from every angle, and no pocket. Against the run, he's trying to make the tackles for losses and fumbles outnumber the big runs.
He's got a great defensive line for that. It makes the most of Phil Taylor. Xavier Cooper, Des Bryant, and Billy Winn will be much more effective here than in a more conventional 3-4 scheme.
I will predict right now that the Browns will rank in the top 20 against the run...and in the top 5 in turnovers.
I'll take it.
Oh, I knew that the ends would attack at 3 and 5, but figured the nose tackle would read and react. But no, Shelton implied that he was being asked to seek penetration as well.
And so I repeat: Mike Pettine's defenses will never rank among the elites in stopping the run.
As I've said, that's fine with me, since the trade-off is "confusion to the enemy", more turnovers, better performance against the pass, and better field position.
The attacking defensive linemen expose the inside linebackers to the guards on runs. While I'm sure that there will be a plan for each 3-man rush designed to minimize weak spots, there are guys on the other side of the line who anticipate that, and can mess it up.
Most running backs and some quarterbacks can run circles around defensive linemen--even the Browns'. That's part of the plan, of course: Forcing them to waste more time trying to get around the ponderous monsters while the balance of the defense converges.
A conventional nose tackle engages the center with a vertical push. Because he overmatches that guy, a guard normally helps out, creating a big plug in the middle of the defense, and preventing the guard from getting his hat on a linebacker.
I believe what Shelton (and Phil Taylor) will do will be to pick a shoulder and attack that instead. It sounds like a tiny thing, but it's really not. The center has to reposition his feet to stop him, and is instantly on the defensive.
If successful, Shelton or Taylor will have their pads or at least their helmets over the actual line of scrimmage before the guard can reach them.
The guards are allowed to set up a little behind the line, but the idea is to deprive them of a good angle, and prevent the guard from actually getting in front of the nose tackle.
That is, to make the guard hit them from the side, more than from the front. If it works, this lets the nose preserve his momentum for further penetration and mayhem.
Phil Taylor did this as a rookie (when he wasn't supposed to) and we all saw what havoc he rote. Then he seemed to disappear and opposing offenses ran all over the defense.
That's because that was a conventional 3-4, and Taylor wasn't sticking with the plan. Once opposing offenses had some game tape to look at, they saw Taylor expose big gaps they could exploit.
They gave up using the guard on him and sent him after a linebacker instead. The center "rode" Taylor out of the predesigned play, and the running back went where he wasn't and where the guard was all over DQwell Jackson.
But Taylor showed what he could do, didn't he? He's a much better fit for Pettine's scheme, and can do exactly the same thing.
If the other two linemen are doing the same thing, there can be no predictable hole to exploit.
Of course, Pettine can't count on uniform penetration, so holes will appear, and there will be some painful runs. Offensive coordinators are also very smart, and will pull stuff to short-circuit this attack. One example is a matadore block--letting the guy get by and then using his own momentum against him to ride him out of the play (which of course goes right behind him).
No scheme is bullet-proof. Against the pass, Pettine wants constant pressure from every angle, and no pocket. Against the run, he's trying to make the tackles for losses and fumbles outnumber the big runs.
He's got a great defensive line for that. It makes the most of Phil Taylor. Xavier Cooper, Des Bryant, and Billy Winn will be much more effective here than in a more conventional 3-4 scheme.
I will predict right now that the Browns will rank in the top 20 against the run...and in the top 5 in turnovers.
I'll take it.
Wednesday, July 22, 2015
Farmer vs Pettine: As the Stomach Turns Episode 900
Tony Tony Tony!
Northcutt got the texts and relayed them, and this changes everything? Really? This is a sign of a power-struggle--because Ray couldn't help texting during games?
Unlike some fans, I don't consider Tony Grossi a Browns basher. He just tries to tell it like he thinks it is, be it good or bad. But jeez...with this Soap Opera Reality Show stuff--
Tony must really love the miniseries "Game of Thrones". All that backstabbing and conspiracy stuff!
All the national guys jumped all over it. Tony's article was replicated six or seven times, seemingly within minutes. These clowns do zero research and just like bashing the Browns. Call it a hobby. Oh goody! Grossi has a theory!
Brandon Lambert (Dawg Pound Daily) does a nice job of kicking this crap into the gutter where it belongs, although he's way too nice about it.
'Nuff said.
While I'm here, Andrea Hangst has discovered Rob Housler. Better late than never.
Northcutt got the texts and relayed them, and this changes everything? Really? This is a sign of a power-struggle--because Ray couldn't help texting during games?
Unlike some fans, I don't consider Tony Grossi a Browns basher. He just tries to tell it like he thinks it is, be it good or bad. But jeez...with this Soap Opera Reality Show stuff--
Tony must really love the miniseries "Game of Thrones". All that backstabbing and conspiracy stuff!
All the national guys jumped all over it. Tony's article was replicated six or seven times, seemingly within minutes. These clowns do zero research and just like bashing the Browns. Call it a hobby. Oh goody! Grossi has a theory!
Brandon Lambert (Dawg Pound Daily) does a nice job of kicking this crap into the gutter where it belongs, although he's way too nice about it.
'Nuff said.
While I'm here, Andrea Hangst has discovered Rob Housler. Better late than never.
Wednesday, July 15, 2015
Cleveland Browns: Trying to Find Stuff to Write About
Without anything happening, I almost wish Manziel would get in a fight or something. Nah.
But in my never-ending search for Browns' stuff, old reliable Andrea Hangst came up with five key stats on the 2014 Browns defense.
Their horrific performance against the run was no surprise, of course. But Andrea did surprise me by actually going out on a limb and (citing Shelton/a healthy Taylor/Starks and a couple more) predicting that they'd do better this season.
Wow that took guts! Not everybody has the courage to state the obviously inevitable. (Not picking on Andrea-just everybody else).
Only 102 missed tackles! This stunned me, because to me it looked like they blew a lot of them! This means more than Andrea went into: They must have been out of position. Interesting that Carlos Dansby is citing that as something he/they need to improve on.
This is good news. They're going into the second season of the same defensive system. Kirksey has a year under his belt.
Opposing QBR sucked ok. Sacks 31 fair enough. Andrea corrects me somewhat in pointing out that opposing offenses did pass a lot against this defense, despite their ability to run all over it.
Still, because of the run and (as Andrea herself points out) the mediocre Browns offense, opposing offenses were balanced, and able to avoid obvious passing situations. So I repeat: The defense was unable to really attack the quarterback.
Pettine's defenses are always really aggressive, with at least the 3-4 defensive ends seeking penetration. Because of this, he won't blitze as much as most 3-4's do, and at least one linebacker will play off the line, ready for coverage.
Kruger did an amazing job last season, but was often a down defensive end. Even when he wasn't, he was usually a dedicated fourth passrusher, doing what he does best.
In a second or third and long, Pettine will dial up the blitze, and on the relatively few occasions last season when he had opposing quarterbacks in that position, they got to them.
The Browns allowed 21 points per game, which was among the fewest in the NFL. As Andrea says, this is pretty important. Let me channel John Madden here:
You see, the team that scores the most points in a game wins. Everybody knows that, but here's something they obviously don't know: When you don't allow the other team to score more points than your offense can score, you can win that way too!
Again, like Bud Carson, Mike Pettine believes in playing defensive football in the opponent's backfield. Like Carson's defenses, his will never rank really high against the run. Carson's defenses also got torched for some big passes as well, but that won't happen here.
Carson and Pettine are after tackles for losses, fumbles, and interceptions. The attacking linemen will open gaps for running backs or scramblers to exploit. Schematically, those gaps are supposed to be covered by linebackers and safeties, but in the chaos of flying bodies, they sometimes simply won't be there, or won't be set up well enough to make the stop.
That is and always will be the trade-off. Points allowed is the only statistic that really matters here, and 8th in the NFL really was how good this defense was in Pettine's first season.
Is any of this sinking in?
Vincent Rapisardi (Dawg Pound Daily) wrote an excellent article comparing how the Browns are being built to how the Seahawks were built. He says the Browns have a championship roster (except for quarterback) and he is correct.
If your reaction is scoffing and laughter, you are irrational or superstitious.
Anyway, Vincent wisely went out of his way to spell out that he was not predicting that the Browns would go to the Superbowl this season. The Browns don't have Russell Wilson. You can cross your fingers for Johnny Manziel, but if he ever does become a franchise guy, it will probably take too long to make a difference this early in his career.
Notable for me was his comparison on the two corps of wide receivers. They're both solid but unspectacular.
But this same writer (Rapisardi) also wrote an article on Barkevious Mingo that kind of disappointed me.
Vincent believes that this could be a do-or-die year for Mingo for all the obvious reasons.
He's correct in thinking that the emergence of Solomon, addition of Nate Orchard etc. may make Mingo expendable, but this isn't all that's involved here.
Pettine calling him the best outside linebacker in coverage was not a throwaway line, and does matter. Tight ends and some h-backs are typically 6'5", 250 lbs and are hell for safeties or inside linebackers to try to cover.
There is no other player on this roster who matches up as well with these guys as Mingo, and it's not even close.
As I said earlier in this same entry, this is not a typical 3-4. I'll go further here, and tell you that two Paul Krugers are not mandatory for it to work according to plan.
As I've said in previous entries, the 3-4 base is nominal, and might only be on the field 33% of the time, being replaced by nickles and dimes and fronts everywhere from 1-5 to 4-1.
Mingo's unique and versatile skill-set makes him much more valuable to Mike Pettine than he would have been to a Dick LeBeau.
Nor are Mingo's passrushing days over. I look forward to seeing what he can do with both arms, and in more passing situations. He remains the fastest and quickest outside linebacker on this team, and now that he's healthy might blitze at least half as often as he covers.
Finally, unless Mingo does have a great season, odds are pretty good that he can be re-signed for a reasonable long-term deal that won't really reflect his true value (sorry Barky business is business).
In this article by Andrew Gribble, he talks about Strongsville grad and Arena Football defensive back Brandon Stephens, who is trying to make the team as an undrafted free agent.
This was a human interest story free of pesky details. Based on the scanty results my search turned up, my best guess is that he is between 5'10" and 5'11", 197 to 205 lbs., and can run a low 4.5 40.
Since Kurt Werner, I get a little extra-interested in some Arena players. Some people don't realize that playing in that league might have been very good for Werner, as his strongest assets were his quick release and short accuracy and touch.
Arena football is played on a much shorter field, making the whole passing game short and quick.
It's possible that this may have honed Brandon Stephens into a real NFL prospect at both cornerback and safety. His size and long speed are fine for the NFL, but in covering all these short quick-hitters, he may have become something special.
Of course, I'm just wildly guessing, because I can't get any concrete information on him. But now if he accomplishes anything in the NFL, I can say I told you so.
Finally, when a promoter organizes an event, he does it to make money. One of the ways he does that is by charging for autographs. Johnny is being good. Quit picking on him.
But in my never-ending search for Browns' stuff, old reliable Andrea Hangst came up with five key stats on the 2014 Browns defense.
Their horrific performance against the run was no surprise, of course. But Andrea did surprise me by actually going out on a limb and (citing Shelton/a healthy Taylor/Starks and a couple more) predicting that they'd do better this season.
Wow that took guts! Not everybody has the courage to state the obviously inevitable. (Not picking on Andrea-just everybody else).
Only 102 missed tackles! This stunned me, because to me it looked like they blew a lot of them! This means more than Andrea went into: They must have been out of position. Interesting that Carlos Dansby is citing that as something he/they need to improve on.
This is good news. They're going into the second season of the same defensive system. Kirksey has a year under his belt.
Opposing QBR sucked ok. Sacks 31 fair enough. Andrea corrects me somewhat in pointing out that opposing offenses did pass a lot against this defense, despite their ability to run all over it.
Still, because of the run and (as Andrea herself points out) the mediocre Browns offense, opposing offenses were balanced, and able to avoid obvious passing situations. So I repeat: The defense was unable to really attack the quarterback.
Pettine's defenses are always really aggressive, with at least the 3-4 defensive ends seeking penetration. Because of this, he won't blitze as much as most 3-4's do, and at least one linebacker will play off the line, ready for coverage.
Kruger did an amazing job last season, but was often a down defensive end. Even when he wasn't, he was usually a dedicated fourth passrusher, doing what he does best.
In a second or third and long, Pettine will dial up the blitze, and on the relatively few occasions last season when he had opposing quarterbacks in that position, they got to them.
The Browns allowed 21 points per game, which was among the fewest in the NFL. As Andrea says, this is pretty important. Let me channel John Madden here:
You see, the team that scores the most points in a game wins. Everybody knows that, but here's something they obviously don't know: When you don't allow the other team to score more points than your offense can score, you can win that way too!
Again, like Bud Carson, Mike Pettine believes in playing defensive football in the opponent's backfield. Like Carson's defenses, his will never rank really high against the run. Carson's defenses also got torched for some big passes as well, but that won't happen here.
Carson and Pettine are after tackles for losses, fumbles, and interceptions. The attacking linemen will open gaps for running backs or scramblers to exploit. Schematically, those gaps are supposed to be covered by linebackers and safeties, but in the chaos of flying bodies, they sometimes simply won't be there, or won't be set up well enough to make the stop.
That is and always will be the trade-off. Points allowed is the only statistic that really matters here, and 8th in the NFL really was how good this defense was in Pettine's first season.
Is any of this sinking in?
Vincent Rapisardi (Dawg Pound Daily) wrote an excellent article comparing how the Browns are being built to how the Seahawks were built. He says the Browns have a championship roster (except for quarterback) and he is correct.
If your reaction is scoffing and laughter, you are irrational or superstitious.
Anyway, Vincent wisely went out of his way to spell out that he was not predicting that the Browns would go to the Superbowl this season. The Browns don't have Russell Wilson. You can cross your fingers for Johnny Manziel, but if he ever does become a franchise guy, it will probably take too long to make a difference this early in his career.
Notable for me was his comparison on the two corps of wide receivers. They're both solid but unspectacular.
But this same writer (Rapisardi) also wrote an article on Barkevious Mingo that kind of disappointed me.
Vincent believes that this could be a do-or-die year for Mingo for all the obvious reasons.
He's correct in thinking that the emergence of Solomon, addition of Nate Orchard etc. may make Mingo expendable, but this isn't all that's involved here.
Pettine calling him the best outside linebacker in coverage was not a throwaway line, and does matter. Tight ends and some h-backs are typically 6'5", 250 lbs and are hell for safeties or inside linebackers to try to cover.
There is no other player on this roster who matches up as well with these guys as Mingo, and it's not even close.
As I said earlier in this same entry, this is not a typical 3-4. I'll go further here, and tell you that two Paul Krugers are not mandatory for it to work according to plan.
As I've said in previous entries, the 3-4 base is nominal, and might only be on the field 33% of the time, being replaced by nickles and dimes and fronts everywhere from 1-5 to 4-1.
Mingo's unique and versatile skill-set makes him much more valuable to Mike Pettine than he would have been to a Dick LeBeau.
Nor are Mingo's passrushing days over. I look forward to seeing what he can do with both arms, and in more passing situations. He remains the fastest and quickest outside linebacker on this team, and now that he's healthy might blitze at least half as often as he covers.
Finally, unless Mingo does have a great season, odds are pretty good that he can be re-signed for a reasonable long-term deal that won't really reflect his true value (sorry Barky business is business).
In this article by Andrew Gribble, he talks about Strongsville grad and Arena Football defensive back Brandon Stephens, who is trying to make the team as an undrafted free agent.
This was a human interest story free of pesky details. Based on the scanty results my search turned up, my best guess is that he is between 5'10" and 5'11", 197 to 205 lbs., and can run a low 4.5 40.
Since Kurt Werner, I get a little extra-interested in some Arena players. Some people don't realize that playing in that league might have been very good for Werner, as his strongest assets were his quick release and short accuracy and touch.
Arena football is played on a much shorter field, making the whole passing game short and quick.
It's possible that this may have honed Brandon Stephens into a real NFL prospect at both cornerback and safety. His size and long speed are fine for the NFL, but in covering all these short quick-hitters, he may have become something special.
Of course, I'm just wildly guessing, because I can't get any concrete information on him. But now if he accomplishes anything in the NFL, I can say I told you so.
Finally, when a promoter organizes an event, he does it to make money. One of the ways he does that is by charging for autographs. Johnny is being good. Quit picking on him.
Wednesday, July 8, 2015
Cleveland Browns Analytical Corrections
I'm now pretty sure that Andrea Hangst of the Bleacher Report isn't among those who steal thoughts and ideas from my blog. She's wrong about stuff I've enlightened my legion of fans (I hit double digits a couple weeks ago) about.
She's really pretty good, and these errors are minor.
In the linked article, she breaks down the Browns defensive depth chart, and does a pretty good job of it.
She was mostly right about the defensive line: Phil Taylor and Danny Shelton should share the load at nose tackle.
But she has Randy Starks and Kitchen backing those two. Kitchen yes, Starks no. Randy Starks can play nose tackle, but is wasted there, and all three of the other guys are probably more effective human fire hydrants.
She has Armonty Bryant stepping back in at DE when the Browns morph to a 4-3 and that's about right, unless Orchard can steal some snaps from him.
She lists the returning vets (Des Bryant/Hughes/Winn) as the primaries at 3-4 DE, but that's another minor mistake: Xavier Cooper has more physical talent than all of the above, and it won't take him long to get deep into this rotation on both run and pass downs.
In point of fact, Desmond Bryant rated poorly against the run last season, and might well cede running down snaps to none other than Cooper.
She's pretty accurate about the outside linebackers, except Listen: Paul Kruger isn't very good in coverage.
But I'm glad she gave Solomon his props, and sees him playing a lot. She later mentions Darius Eubanks, who might make the team because he can play inside or outside. So can Solomon.
Great call on the inside linebackers being underrated, and there are three of them. She informed me that Kirksey and Dansby were PFF's top two ILB's in coverage too--wow.
Safety is pretty obvious. I'm glad that Jordon Poyer is getting all these extra reps while Gipson gets healthy. Gipson won't give up his starting job, but Poyer will be ready for primetime if he or Whitner get hurt. This is good news as Whitner ages (and I suspect they'll take some snaps off him this season to keep him rested), and Gipson's return for 2016 isn't guaranteed.
She makes a good point about Bademosi. It's possible that Ibraheim Campbell could make him expendable. I kind of doubt that, though: Bademosi is really exceptional on special teams, and they might well "make room" for him.
Campbell is rediculously underrated as a safety (and I mean cover two or free too), and should actually play some downs (and make some plays) even as a rookie.
At cornerback, she (sigh) once again talks about a battle for the nickel corner slot between the 6', 202 lb. Justin Gilbert and lilipution K'Waun Williams.
This is pretty simple: Hawkins or Gabriel, and for that matter almost every slot reciever, is undersized for a reason. That reason is that they are too damn quick and explosive for most cornerbacks to cover tight.
This is why (stay with me here) most nickel cornerbacks are also little guys, because they have a better chance of at least staying close enough to them to prevent big plays.
Gilbert is indeed being worked in the slot, but that's because some teams sometimes put taller players (like Brian Hartline) in the slot.
Justin Gilbert has rare quickness for his size, and can run with anybody. But his very size and height put him at a disadvantage against Williams vs. conventional slot receivers.
And I like Tramon Williams a lot, and know they paid him a lot of money. But it is NOT etched in stone that Gilbert can't beat him out to start opposite Joe Haden.
Williams had a great season last year, but he's THIRTY TWO. That's really old for a cornerback. Don't throw Whitner at me: Safety and cornerback are much different positions. Corners rely on quickness and recovery speed, and as all players age, this is the first thing they lose.
"Lose a step" is highly accurate, because that's how it happens. They can't sink and explode as quickly, and they're two or three feet behind the guy they could be all over the year before. They also get slower as games progress.
All of this is especially true on a team that relies heavily on press/man coverage like Mike Pettine's Cleveland Browns.
If Tramon Williams can play like he did last season (and I wouldn't mind that at all--I got no favorites), he's the one that's beating the odds. Justin Gilbert is breathing down his neck, right now.
I don't believe that Mike Pettine is a *Martonian. I believe he really will honest-to-God start the best player period.
In conclusion, Andrea gets a B.
*Martonian: Like Marty Schottenheimer.
She's really pretty good, and these errors are minor.
In the linked article, she breaks down the Browns defensive depth chart, and does a pretty good job of it.
She was mostly right about the defensive line: Phil Taylor and Danny Shelton should share the load at nose tackle.
But she has Randy Starks and Kitchen backing those two. Kitchen yes, Starks no. Randy Starks can play nose tackle, but is wasted there, and all three of the other guys are probably more effective human fire hydrants.
She has Armonty Bryant stepping back in at DE when the Browns morph to a 4-3 and that's about right, unless Orchard can steal some snaps from him.
She lists the returning vets (Des Bryant/Hughes/Winn) as the primaries at 3-4 DE, but that's another minor mistake: Xavier Cooper has more physical talent than all of the above, and it won't take him long to get deep into this rotation on both run and pass downs.
In point of fact, Desmond Bryant rated poorly against the run last season, and might well cede running down snaps to none other than Cooper.
She's pretty accurate about the outside linebackers, except Listen: Paul Kruger isn't very good in coverage.
But I'm glad she gave Solomon his props, and sees him playing a lot. She later mentions Darius Eubanks, who might make the team because he can play inside or outside. So can Solomon.
Great call on the inside linebackers being underrated, and there are three of them. She informed me that Kirksey and Dansby were PFF's top two ILB's in coverage too--wow.
Safety is pretty obvious. I'm glad that Jordon Poyer is getting all these extra reps while Gipson gets healthy. Gipson won't give up his starting job, but Poyer will be ready for primetime if he or Whitner get hurt. This is good news as Whitner ages (and I suspect they'll take some snaps off him this season to keep him rested), and Gipson's return for 2016 isn't guaranteed.
She makes a good point about Bademosi. It's possible that Ibraheim Campbell could make him expendable. I kind of doubt that, though: Bademosi is really exceptional on special teams, and they might well "make room" for him.
Campbell is rediculously underrated as a safety (and I mean cover two or free too), and should actually play some downs (and make some plays) even as a rookie.
At cornerback, she (sigh) once again talks about a battle for the nickel corner slot between the 6', 202 lb. Justin Gilbert and lilipution K'Waun Williams.
This is pretty simple: Hawkins or Gabriel, and for that matter almost every slot reciever, is undersized for a reason. That reason is that they are too damn quick and explosive for most cornerbacks to cover tight.
This is why (stay with me here) most nickel cornerbacks are also little guys, because they have a better chance of at least staying close enough to them to prevent big plays.
Gilbert is indeed being worked in the slot, but that's because some teams sometimes put taller players (like Brian Hartline) in the slot.
Justin Gilbert has rare quickness for his size, and can run with anybody. But his very size and height put him at a disadvantage against Williams vs. conventional slot receivers.
And I like Tramon Williams a lot, and know they paid him a lot of money. But it is NOT etched in stone that Gilbert can't beat him out to start opposite Joe Haden.
Williams had a great season last year, but he's THIRTY TWO. That's really old for a cornerback. Don't throw Whitner at me: Safety and cornerback are much different positions. Corners rely on quickness and recovery speed, and as all players age, this is the first thing they lose.
"Lose a step" is highly accurate, because that's how it happens. They can't sink and explode as quickly, and they're two or three feet behind the guy they could be all over the year before. They also get slower as games progress.
All of this is especially true on a team that relies heavily on press/man coverage like Mike Pettine's Cleveland Browns.
If Tramon Williams can play like he did last season (and I wouldn't mind that at all--I got no favorites), he's the one that's beating the odds. Justin Gilbert is breathing down his neck, right now.
I don't believe that Mike Pettine is a *Martonian. I believe he really will honest-to-God start the best player period.
In conclusion, Andrea gets a B.
*Martonian: Like Marty Schottenheimer.
Monday, July 6, 2015
How Not to Analyze the Cleveland Browns
I won't include a link to this terrible article by an author who for his own good will remain nameless, but it's entitled "The Cleveland Browns: Three Reasons Why they Won't Make the Playoffs in 2015".
After the obligatory three-paragraph rehash of the 2014 season, the dull hatchet came out:
"The team also suffered crushing losses like Jordan Cameron going to Miami, Buster Skrine going to the Jets, and Josh Gordon being suspended again for the entire NFL season. The team looks to move forward despite these huge losses---"
I italicized the adjectives to show you how bad writers exaggerate a lot.
Jordan Cameron was on the bench more than he played. Gordon was so ineffective that the team was better without him than with him. Skrine is an excellent cornerback, but the current Browns are going to have to cut some excellent cornerbacks because they're eyeball-deep in them.
Reason number one was uncertainty at quarterback. That one is too obvious for me to call BS. I can name at least twenty quarterbacks I'd prefer over Josh McCown. I'm hopeful about Manziel, but really just don't know. He's coming from far behind experience-wise, and if he does become ready this season, it could be late.
However, this writer cites the lack of talent around him on this roster as the reason he will fail. Just one more repeat: He has succeeded everywhere he has had a good OFFENSIVE LINE. Receivers were far less impactful.
But even his implicit disrespect for the skill players was ignorant. This will basically be a West Coast offense intended to exploit the small playmaking wide receivers like Hawk and Gabriel on crossing patterns that will get them open in space and right in front of McCown,
The bigger receivers, while not burners, can threaten the deeper sidelines because they can make catches with people hanging all over them.
McCown will be handing off, pitching out, throwing to the flats and short passes between the hashes most of the time. And guys like Housler and the Johnsons will pop into existance in this writer's brain during preseason. He'll say "who's that?"
Reason number two is the brutal schedule. Look this up: Schedule is a weak indicator, as teams change--sometimes a lot--from season to season. How common is it that last season's 11-5 is this season's 7-9 and vice-versa?
"Expect the team to struggle mightily as they will not match up well with teams that were ranked top ten offensively and defensively".
See previous paragraph. The Browns have loaded up on run-stoppers and will obviously rank in the top ten themselves defensively. With a healthy Alex Mack they also had a top ten offense last season, and every skill position except tight end has been upgraded and deepened significantly.
Reason number three was (sigh) Lack of playmakers.
They did, he stipulates, do a great job of loading up with Randy Starks and company, but they didn't massively overpay Brandon Marshall!
He calls Hartline and Bowe "decent additions", but points out that neither can be difference-makers. Fair enough, but along with blaming Housler for an early injury and a new Head Coach who doesn't use players with his skills, he also ignores Duke Johnson, Gabriel, Hawkins and potentially Vincent Mayle. For that matter, if Terrelle Pryor can catch the ball, he'll probably make this team!
Not all playmakers are tall wide receivers. A playmaker is a guy who can take it to the house from anywhere on the field at any given time, period, and this season's Browns have a bunch of them in an offensive system designed to give them those chances.
Hatchet-man's conclusion is 6-10. So a 7-9 team quarterbacked by Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel last season, having significantly upgraded their offensive and defensive lines, wide receivers and running backs, entering the second year of their defensive system will get worse.
Stick a fork in yourself, writer to be named never. You're done.
Micheal Middlehurst-Schwartze (USA Today Sports) is the other side of this coin, as he wrote a well-researched and objective article about the Browns' prospects. I didn't 100% agree with all of it, as he once again leaves Gabriel and Hawkins out of the "playmaker" equation...but wow--he actually mentioned Housler as a talented guy!
After reading the aforementioned trash, it was great to read something by a person who at least does his homework and thinks with his brain.
On a lighter note, this article by Bleacher Report's Andrea Hangst, was pretty good. "Five Dark Horse candidates to make the Browns final 53-man roster".
Her first pick is kind of wasted on cornerback ahem...Ifo Ekpre-Olamu. Andrea says that his injury might not prevent him from participating in training camp this year, which is why 53 instead of IR.
But the Browns even now have too many cornerbacks on the roster, and the medical redshirt is just logical.
Offensive lineman Tyler Loos was a guy under my radar. Andrea says that he can play up to four offensive line positions and save a roster spot.
What little I could find on Loos was sketchy, but he allowed one sack as left tackle for the Northern Illinois Huskies. He may or not have the footspeed to play tackle at this level, and his workouts were unimpressive.
On paper at least, he doesn't look like a zone-blocker. I could be wrong, and Ray Farmer was interested enough in him to get him in here. We'll see.
Next was running back Luke Lundy, a guy with long hair and muscles that's very interesting. He excelled at a small school and projects to fullback per the consensus of scouts.
His workouts were actually very good, indicating explosiveness. His 40 times were 4.52 and 4.73 but forget that: He ran a 4.52, and you tend to run your fastest with people trying to tackle you, ok?
Andrea sees him only as a running back, but I feel he could make it because he may be a good fullback as well, and the only player listed on the team site at fullback is Malcom Johnson.
Like Andrea, I think he has a shot, but Glen Winston is a veteran who has done some things. Duke Johnson, Crowell, and West aren't going anywhere (unless Ray can squeeze some good stuff out of Jerry Jones or somebody else for West in a trade), and Winston is currently number four.
To date, Flip has implied that he'll use a move tight end a lot, and also a pass-catching fullback. Even if Luke rocks out in preseason, he probably won't make it unless he shows that he can catch passes and block.
Next is smurf receiver Darius Jennings. Andrea says he rushed 24 times in 2014, and that this proven ability in Flip's offense could land him a spot.
It's possible that this little guy could force the Browns to carry six wide receivers on the final 53. Things look grimmer and grimmer for Travis Benjamin.
My first impulse was to dismiss this guy, but that was my Hawkins and Gabriel prejudice coming out. I mean, how many smurfs do you need?
As Andrea implies, as many playmakers as you can get. Point taken. He's a home run hitter.
For him, the bad news might be who's next up: Terrelle Pryor who, regardless of how they label him, is a potential home run threat who is also 6'4".
Odds are massively against this guy making the 48-man roster, but if he shows that he can catch the ball (the patterns etc. are money in the bank if he works at it by the way), he could well make the final 53 as a project. (Update: this is wrong: Pryor does not qualify for the practice squad, and the final 48 might be his only chance.)
After Ray screwed up horribly last season by trying to sneak Charles Johnson onto the practice squad and losing him, I doubt that he'll try that with Pryor (if he can catch).
4.38 do you get that? Basketball star does that help? 240 lbs? Who's that guy in Detroit Calvin Johnson?
Pryor won't be that this season, of course, as he's learning a new position from the ground up. But he's taking lessons from Antonio Brown and Randy Moss. Moss, especially, can show Pryor the ropes, as he can do everything Moss did in his heyday.
If he can catch.
Imagine in 2016 a hopefully in shape Josh Gordon and a ready-for-primetime Pryor coming into camp together.
Even for this season, however, Pryor could see limited action, depending on the opposing defense. He can run a wildcat offense right NOW.
Something else to consider here is the fact that players can be spoon-fed plays one at a time. Long before he has mastered his route treeS (they've almost GOT TO use him at move tight end and h-back too), he will nail down some of the simpler/easier things first, and can be used in those situations.
Right away, they could send him deep: "You just go for the goal post no matter what anybody else does. The single high will have to stay back in front of you because you'll blow the corner's doors off, and we might throw it to you anyway."
A safety playing deep can't tackle anybody, see? A cornerback in pursuit can't break off a guy like this, so he's out of the picture as well. Even as a decoy, Pryor could be used immediately.
If he can catch.
I like Andrea's thinking on all these guys, except maybe Olamu, who I think will be redshirted.
Her reference to Loos made me think about versatility on the offensive line, too. Micheal Bowie can play guard or tackle. For that matter, so can Mitchell Schwartze. Cam Erving, who I see as a starter, plays every position, and John Greco can as well (although you don't want him at left tackle).
For that matter, Bitonio can play anywhere too.
It's a given that whoever loses his starting gig to Erving will be ready to step in at multiple positions and play well, and that a pretty good former starter (Bowie) will find himself in the same situation. This means that the Browns could have only seven active offensive linemen on game day, so they could activate more guys elsewhere.
Per this Bleacher Report article by Marc Lillibridge, most teams carry nine active offensive linemen.
They also carry two quarterbacks, and this is where Pryor might come in as the emergency guy.
They carry four running backs, sometimes including a fullback, 6 wide recievers, and three tight ends. Well here comes Pryor again, because he can be a WR/TE and there's some FB-HB overlap where he fits as well.
Next are Malcom Johnson and potentially EJ Bibbs (Bibbs is an H-back/TE who might be able to play fullback as well).
The final breakdown for this particular team in this particular system could be seven offensive linemen, three running backs, one tight end, two quarterbacks, 5 wide receivers, Pryor, M Johnson, and Bibbs (total 24).
How this offense is being built, and DeFellipo is setting it up, is pretty exciting. I didn't even mention that Duke Johnson will line up as a wide receiver sometimes. Opposing offenses will have a hard time anticipating it because they can't be sure what the Johnsons (and maybe Bibbs) will do.
He's even having the smurf receivers line up in the backfield and take pitchouts and handoffs. He's playing with big guys inside and little guys outside.
But I digress. For a 3-4 base, Marc says seven or eight defensive linemen, but Pettine runs a 4-3 as well. Danny Shelton is a true nose tackle who can play defensive tackle as well. Kitchen, inexplicably listed at DE, is a nose tackle. The rest of the guys can play either 3-4 DE slot or DT, so they could, of they wanted to, carry fewer defensive linemen.
Don't knock Mike Pettine for carrying 11 defensive backs. In today's NFL, Six and occasionally even seven are on the field sometimes. Defensive backs also tend to be integral to special teams coverage units because they run fast and can tackle.
All of this brings me back to Terrelle Pryor (if he can catch).
I would now bet money on him making the final ACTIVE roster.
If he can catch.
After the obligatory three-paragraph rehash of the 2014 season, the dull hatchet came out:
"The team also suffered crushing losses like Jordan Cameron going to Miami, Buster Skrine going to the Jets, and Josh Gordon being suspended again for the entire NFL season. The team looks to move forward despite these huge losses---"
I italicized the adjectives to show you how bad writers exaggerate a lot.
Jordan Cameron was on the bench more than he played. Gordon was so ineffective that the team was better without him than with him. Skrine is an excellent cornerback, but the current Browns are going to have to cut some excellent cornerbacks because they're eyeball-deep in them.
Reason number one was uncertainty at quarterback. That one is too obvious for me to call BS. I can name at least twenty quarterbacks I'd prefer over Josh McCown. I'm hopeful about Manziel, but really just don't know. He's coming from far behind experience-wise, and if he does become ready this season, it could be late.
However, this writer cites the lack of talent around him on this roster as the reason he will fail. Just one more repeat: He has succeeded everywhere he has had a good OFFENSIVE LINE. Receivers were far less impactful.
But even his implicit disrespect for the skill players was ignorant. This will basically be a West Coast offense intended to exploit the small playmaking wide receivers like Hawk and Gabriel on crossing patterns that will get them open in space and right in front of McCown,
The bigger receivers, while not burners, can threaten the deeper sidelines because they can make catches with people hanging all over them.
McCown will be handing off, pitching out, throwing to the flats and short passes between the hashes most of the time. And guys like Housler and the Johnsons will pop into existance in this writer's brain during preseason. He'll say "who's that?"
Reason number two is the brutal schedule. Look this up: Schedule is a weak indicator, as teams change--sometimes a lot--from season to season. How common is it that last season's 11-5 is this season's 7-9 and vice-versa?
"Expect the team to struggle mightily as they will not match up well with teams that were ranked top ten offensively and defensively".
See previous paragraph. The Browns have loaded up on run-stoppers and will obviously rank in the top ten themselves defensively. With a healthy Alex Mack they also had a top ten offense last season, and every skill position except tight end has been upgraded and deepened significantly.
Reason number three was (sigh) Lack of playmakers.
They did, he stipulates, do a great job of loading up with Randy Starks and company, but they didn't massively overpay Brandon Marshall!
He calls Hartline and Bowe "decent additions", but points out that neither can be difference-makers. Fair enough, but along with blaming Housler for an early injury and a new Head Coach who doesn't use players with his skills, he also ignores Duke Johnson, Gabriel, Hawkins and potentially Vincent Mayle. For that matter, if Terrelle Pryor can catch the ball, he'll probably make this team!
Not all playmakers are tall wide receivers. A playmaker is a guy who can take it to the house from anywhere on the field at any given time, period, and this season's Browns have a bunch of them in an offensive system designed to give them those chances.
Hatchet-man's conclusion is 6-10. So a 7-9 team quarterbacked by Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel last season, having significantly upgraded their offensive and defensive lines, wide receivers and running backs, entering the second year of their defensive system will get worse.
Stick a fork in yourself, writer to be named never. You're done.
Micheal Middlehurst-Schwartze (USA Today Sports) is the other side of this coin, as he wrote a well-researched and objective article about the Browns' prospects. I didn't 100% agree with all of it, as he once again leaves Gabriel and Hawkins out of the "playmaker" equation...but wow--he actually mentioned Housler as a talented guy!
After reading the aforementioned trash, it was great to read something by a person who at least does his homework and thinks with his brain.
On a lighter note, this article by Bleacher Report's Andrea Hangst, was pretty good. "Five Dark Horse candidates to make the Browns final 53-man roster".
Her first pick is kind of wasted on cornerback ahem...Ifo Ekpre-Olamu. Andrea says that his injury might not prevent him from participating in training camp this year, which is why 53 instead of IR.
But the Browns even now have too many cornerbacks on the roster, and the medical redshirt is just logical.
Offensive lineman Tyler Loos was a guy under my radar. Andrea says that he can play up to four offensive line positions and save a roster spot.
What little I could find on Loos was sketchy, but he allowed one sack as left tackle for the Northern Illinois Huskies. He may or not have the footspeed to play tackle at this level, and his workouts were unimpressive.
On paper at least, he doesn't look like a zone-blocker. I could be wrong, and Ray Farmer was interested enough in him to get him in here. We'll see.
Next was running back Luke Lundy, a guy with long hair and muscles that's very interesting. He excelled at a small school and projects to fullback per the consensus of scouts.
His workouts were actually very good, indicating explosiveness. His 40 times were 4.52 and 4.73 but forget that: He ran a 4.52, and you tend to run your fastest with people trying to tackle you, ok?
Andrea sees him only as a running back, but I feel he could make it because he may be a good fullback as well, and the only player listed on the team site at fullback is Malcom Johnson.
Like Andrea, I think he has a shot, but Glen Winston is a veteran who has done some things. Duke Johnson, Crowell, and West aren't going anywhere (unless Ray can squeeze some good stuff out of Jerry Jones or somebody else for West in a trade), and Winston is currently number four.
To date, Flip has implied that he'll use a move tight end a lot, and also a pass-catching fullback. Even if Luke rocks out in preseason, he probably won't make it unless he shows that he can catch passes and block.
Next is smurf receiver Darius Jennings. Andrea says he rushed 24 times in 2014, and that this proven ability in Flip's offense could land him a spot.
It's possible that this little guy could force the Browns to carry six wide receivers on the final 53. Things look grimmer and grimmer for Travis Benjamin.
My first impulse was to dismiss this guy, but that was my Hawkins and Gabriel prejudice coming out. I mean, how many smurfs do you need?
As Andrea implies, as many playmakers as you can get. Point taken. He's a home run hitter.
For him, the bad news might be who's next up: Terrelle Pryor who, regardless of how they label him, is a potential home run threat who is also 6'4".
Odds are massively against this guy making the 48-man roster, but if he shows that he can catch the ball (the patterns etc. are money in the bank if he works at it by the way), he could well make the final 53 as a project. (Update: this is wrong: Pryor does not qualify for the practice squad, and the final 48 might be his only chance.)
After Ray screwed up horribly last season by trying to sneak Charles Johnson onto the practice squad and losing him, I doubt that he'll try that with Pryor (if he can catch).
4.38 do you get that? Basketball star does that help? 240 lbs? Who's that guy in Detroit Calvin Johnson?
Pryor won't be that this season, of course, as he's learning a new position from the ground up. But he's taking lessons from Antonio Brown and Randy Moss. Moss, especially, can show Pryor the ropes, as he can do everything Moss did in his heyday.
If he can catch.
Imagine in 2016 a hopefully in shape Josh Gordon and a ready-for-primetime Pryor coming into camp together.
Even for this season, however, Pryor could see limited action, depending on the opposing defense. He can run a wildcat offense right NOW.
Something else to consider here is the fact that players can be spoon-fed plays one at a time. Long before he has mastered his route treeS (they've almost GOT TO use him at move tight end and h-back too), he will nail down some of the simpler/easier things first, and can be used in those situations.
Right away, they could send him deep: "You just go for the goal post no matter what anybody else does. The single high will have to stay back in front of you because you'll blow the corner's doors off, and we might throw it to you anyway."
A safety playing deep can't tackle anybody, see? A cornerback in pursuit can't break off a guy like this, so he's out of the picture as well. Even as a decoy, Pryor could be used immediately.
If he can catch.
I like Andrea's thinking on all these guys, except maybe Olamu, who I think will be redshirted.
Her reference to Loos made me think about versatility on the offensive line, too. Micheal Bowie can play guard or tackle. For that matter, so can Mitchell Schwartze. Cam Erving, who I see as a starter, plays every position, and John Greco can as well (although you don't want him at left tackle).
For that matter, Bitonio can play anywhere too.
It's a given that whoever loses his starting gig to Erving will be ready to step in at multiple positions and play well, and that a pretty good former starter (Bowie) will find himself in the same situation. This means that the Browns could have only seven active offensive linemen on game day, so they could activate more guys elsewhere.
Per this Bleacher Report article by Marc Lillibridge, most teams carry nine active offensive linemen.
They also carry two quarterbacks, and this is where Pryor might come in as the emergency guy.
They carry four running backs, sometimes including a fullback, 6 wide recievers, and three tight ends. Well here comes Pryor again, because he can be a WR/TE and there's some FB-HB overlap where he fits as well.
Next are Malcom Johnson and potentially EJ Bibbs (Bibbs is an H-back/TE who might be able to play fullback as well).
The final breakdown for this particular team in this particular system could be seven offensive linemen, three running backs, one tight end, two quarterbacks, 5 wide receivers, Pryor, M Johnson, and Bibbs (total 24).
How this offense is being built, and DeFellipo is setting it up, is pretty exciting. I didn't even mention that Duke Johnson will line up as a wide receiver sometimes. Opposing offenses will have a hard time anticipating it because they can't be sure what the Johnsons (and maybe Bibbs) will do.
He's even having the smurf receivers line up in the backfield and take pitchouts and handoffs. He's playing with big guys inside and little guys outside.
But I digress. For a 3-4 base, Marc says seven or eight defensive linemen, but Pettine runs a 4-3 as well. Danny Shelton is a true nose tackle who can play defensive tackle as well. Kitchen, inexplicably listed at DE, is a nose tackle. The rest of the guys can play either 3-4 DE slot or DT, so they could, of they wanted to, carry fewer defensive linemen.
Don't knock Mike Pettine for carrying 11 defensive backs. In today's NFL, Six and occasionally even seven are on the field sometimes. Defensive backs also tend to be integral to special teams coverage units because they run fast and can tackle.
All of this brings me back to Terrelle Pryor (if he can catch).
I would now bet money on him making the final ACTIVE roster.
If he can catch.
Sunday, July 5, 2015
How Steelertown Sees the Browns
Here is a pretty good analysis of the Browns by Jon Ledyard of the Steeler Depot. I'd half-expected a hatchet-job by a drunk amateur, but Jon was pretty objective.
He wasn't as thorough as he should have been, however, and really--to describe Crowell and West as "showing flashes" and "underwhelming" was pretty dumb. Maybe West sort of faded later on, but Crowell's 4.2 yards per carry was really good.
Jon fully expects Duke Johnson to bench both those guys and do well.
The writer is trying to be fair and entitled to his opinion, so I'm not attacking him. If I were to analyze the Steelers, I might screw up too. Prior to Mack's injury these two ranked among the top backs in the league in yards per carry. They were the engine that drove the offense.
Not that Duke won't play a whole lot.
Jon believes that McCown is keeping Manziel's chair warm for awhile, and that's true. IF/when Johnny is ready he'll get another shot--this season, unless McCown is playing too well (a possibility that's being universally ruled out.)
Jon read too many national articles in his research, since he parrots the "won't get much help" from his receivers line. But after saying that, he gets objective again and says they're a capable group, but far from elite.
I don't know about "far from", but that's about right.
In mentioning Duke Johnson, he describes an offense in "desperate need" of a playmaker, once again ignoring Hawkins and Gabriel, who should again average close to 20 yards per-catch.
He lists Barnidge and Dray as the primary tight ends, and says Rodney Houslerfield will "be in the mix." Actually, Dray and Barnidge are in-line tight ends, and Housler is a "move" pass-catching tight end and the starter.
EJ Bibbs is making a strong case for himself as another "move" tight end who, like Housler, can also block in-line, and don't be too surprised if this guy beats out Dray.
Jon can be forgiven for not mentioning "fullback" Malcolm Johnson, who can do some of the same things himself, and could play a lot and catch a lot of passes.
Housler is being badly underrated. Which is fine with me.
This writer wasn't afraid to say that the Browns might have the best offensive line in football. He describes an elite secondary.
In discussing the moves made to bolster the crappy run-defense, he doesn't mention the players returning from injury or Randy Starks. For some reason, everybody is terrified of predicting a marked improvement in run defense this season, despite the fact that it's obvious and inevitable.
Jon concludes that the Browns might go 8-8, which kind of shocked me.
As a guy with Browns OCD I congratulate Mr. Ledyard on a pretty fair and objective article on my team overall. I'd encourage him to watch for these names, however:
Housler, Gabriel, Crowell.
I also need to point out that Josh McCown has never had this good an offensive line protecting him, and wherever he's had good protection, he has won.
One last thing: The Browns didn't steal a game from your team or the Bengals last season. They beat them. Because they were better. Period.
He wasn't as thorough as he should have been, however, and really--to describe Crowell and West as "showing flashes" and "underwhelming" was pretty dumb. Maybe West sort of faded later on, but Crowell's 4.2 yards per carry was really good.
Jon fully expects Duke Johnson to bench both those guys and do well.
The writer is trying to be fair and entitled to his opinion, so I'm not attacking him. If I were to analyze the Steelers, I might screw up too. Prior to Mack's injury these two ranked among the top backs in the league in yards per carry. They were the engine that drove the offense.
Not that Duke won't play a whole lot.
Jon believes that McCown is keeping Manziel's chair warm for awhile, and that's true. IF/when Johnny is ready he'll get another shot--this season, unless McCown is playing too well (a possibility that's being universally ruled out.)
Jon read too many national articles in his research, since he parrots the "won't get much help" from his receivers line. But after saying that, he gets objective again and says they're a capable group, but far from elite.
I don't know about "far from", but that's about right.
In mentioning Duke Johnson, he describes an offense in "desperate need" of a playmaker, once again ignoring Hawkins and Gabriel, who should again average close to 20 yards per-catch.
He lists Barnidge and Dray as the primary tight ends, and says Rodney Houslerfield will "be in the mix." Actually, Dray and Barnidge are in-line tight ends, and Housler is a "move" pass-catching tight end and the starter.
EJ Bibbs is making a strong case for himself as another "move" tight end who, like Housler, can also block in-line, and don't be too surprised if this guy beats out Dray.
Jon can be forgiven for not mentioning "fullback" Malcolm Johnson, who can do some of the same things himself, and could play a lot and catch a lot of passes.
Housler is being badly underrated. Which is fine with me.
This writer wasn't afraid to say that the Browns might have the best offensive line in football. He describes an elite secondary.
In discussing the moves made to bolster the crappy run-defense, he doesn't mention the players returning from injury or Randy Starks. For some reason, everybody is terrified of predicting a marked improvement in run defense this season, despite the fact that it's obvious and inevitable.
Jon concludes that the Browns might go 8-8, which kind of shocked me.
As a guy with Browns OCD I congratulate Mr. Ledyard on a pretty fair and objective article on my team overall. I'd encourage him to watch for these names, however:
Housler, Gabriel, Crowell.
I also need to point out that Josh McCown has never had this good an offensive line protecting him, and wherever he's had good protection, he has won.
One last thing: The Browns didn't steal a game from your team or the Bengals last season. They beat them. Because they were better. Period.
Thursday, July 2, 2015
Franchise Quarterback: The Most Important Anchor on a Team
Here is what happens when you let your kids play on the internet: They fantasize about the Seattle Seahawks trading Russell Wilson to the Cleveland Browns for (are you ready?):
Josh McCown, three first round draft picks, and two third round picks.
This condition is called "acute homerism". People with this condition tend to underestimate the intelligence of those their team might deal with, and overestimate (to say the least) the value of their own players.
I know that the quarterback is by far the most important player on a team, but a lot of people blow that way, way out of proportion.
Would you rather have a Russell Wilson, or Joe Haden, Joe Thomas, Chris Kirksey, Alex Mack, and another starter? If you said Wilson, you need a therapist.
But the underlying premise here was interesting. Such a trade--assuming the Browns and Wilson could come to terms in advance, could work.
I would offer a McCown and a 2016 first round pick. Just kidding--I don't have acute homerism. Two first round picks and some more stuff.
It's highly doubtful, though. I don't believe that Russell Wilson is the hyper-greedy gouger some people are making him sound like, and he and the team should come to terms.
This has long been an issue with me: "The market". A player says "Well, I performed as well as this guy, and he makes x, so I should make x plus inflation and oh yeah all of it guaranteed".
Suh aside, this is how quarterbacks cripple their own teams. They gobble up 17% of their team's salary caps. Now, the same fans who were hollering "PAY the man!" are bashing the GM for letting elite veteran position players go and replacing them with undrafted free agents and journeymen.
Then we scratch our heads, trying to figure out why Denver hasn't won a Superbowl.
John Elway himself ought to know why, better than anybody else. He never won a Superbowl until he had a running game. He was as good as it gets. He could even carry a team on his shoulders--but only so far.
Except for the New England Patriots, teams typically get deep into the playoffs, then have to pay their quarterbacks, then fall off the map. Tom Brady worked with the team. His contract is structured such that Bill can afford to sign and keep players to help him. Several of those players (Oh no!) accept a little less money to stick with a winner. (Patriot players are SMARTER than most).
Agents and other players fuel this hypergreed fire. They all think it's their duty to set unprecedented compensation records so the next guy can use that benchmark to get his "fair share".
If I were a franchise quarterback, I'd tell my agent to accept a lower offer. I would like 22 million a year, but think I can barely scrape by on 17.5 million instead.
My agent and other players would tell me "What are you doing? The teams will point at you and say 'Well he only makes 17.5!"
It's just insane. It's your duty to screw your team out of some of it's best players (who are all looking for that last nickel themselves) to get paid money you'll never be able to spend in your wildest dreams.
They ALL say "I just want to win". Just not as much as they want more money. I hear these millionaires getting their rediculous second contracts and saying stuff like "Now I know my family is secure" and just want to go on a shooting rampage.
Why are the Seahawks now perennial contenders? Because Russell Wilson is cheap. What will happen if he gouges them as hard as he possibly can? That will be over. His teammates will clap him on the back and congratulate him and then, if they don't find themselves somewhere else--will never see another Superbowl.
"I just wanna win" ahhh, shaddap!
Josh McCown, three first round draft picks, and two third round picks.
This condition is called "acute homerism". People with this condition tend to underestimate the intelligence of those their team might deal with, and overestimate (to say the least) the value of their own players.
I know that the quarterback is by far the most important player on a team, but a lot of people blow that way, way out of proportion.
Would you rather have a Russell Wilson, or Joe Haden, Joe Thomas, Chris Kirksey, Alex Mack, and another starter? If you said Wilson, you need a therapist.
But the underlying premise here was interesting. Such a trade--assuming the Browns and Wilson could come to terms in advance, could work.
I would offer a McCown and a 2016 first round pick. Just kidding--I don't have acute homerism. Two first round picks and some more stuff.
It's highly doubtful, though. I don't believe that Russell Wilson is the hyper-greedy gouger some people are making him sound like, and he and the team should come to terms.
This has long been an issue with me: "The market". A player says "Well, I performed as well as this guy, and he makes x, so I should make x plus inflation and oh yeah all of it guaranteed".
Suh aside, this is how quarterbacks cripple their own teams. They gobble up 17% of their team's salary caps. Now, the same fans who were hollering "PAY the man!" are bashing the GM for letting elite veteran position players go and replacing them with undrafted free agents and journeymen.
Then we scratch our heads, trying to figure out why Denver hasn't won a Superbowl.
John Elway himself ought to know why, better than anybody else. He never won a Superbowl until he had a running game. He was as good as it gets. He could even carry a team on his shoulders--but only so far.
Except for the New England Patriots, teams typically get deep into the playoffs, then have to pay their quarterbacks, then fall off the map. Tom Brady worked with the team. His contract is structured such that Bill can afford to sign and keep players to help him. Several of those players (Oh no!) accept a little less money to stick with a winner. (Patriot players are SMARTER than most).
Agents and other players fuel this hypergreed fire. They all think it's their duty to set unprecedented compensation records so the next guy can use that benchmark to get his "fair share".
If I were a franchise quarterback, I'd tell my agent to accept a lower offer. I would like 22 million a year, but think I can barely scrape by on 17.5 million instead.
My agent and other players would tell me "What are you doing? The teams will point at you and say 'Well he only makes 17.5!"
It's just insane. It's your duty to screw your team out of some of it's best players (who are all looking for that last nickel themselves) to get paid money you'll never be able to spend in your wildest dreams.
They ALL say "I just want to win". Just not as much as they want more money. I hear these millionaires getting their rediculous second contracts and saying stuff like "Now I know my family is secure" and just want to go on a shooting rampage.
Why are the Seahawks now perennial contenders? Because Russell Wilson is cheap. What will happen if he gouges them as hard as he possibly can? That will be over. His teammates will clap him on the back and congratulate him and then, if they don't find themselves somewhere else--will never see another Superbowl.
"I just wanna win" ahhh, shaddap!
Wednesday, July 1, 2015
Cleveland Browns: All systems Go (Except for...well you know...)
I'm late to the Poyer party, but can't say I'm surprised that he's progressed into a guy who can step in and play safety. It's a little embarrassing, since I'm constantly reminding everybody that young players (if they are dedicated) improve dramaticly through their first three seasons.
I invented the term MM (Memorex Moron) to describe typical fans who ignore this. If the guy isn't already a starter, he's dead to them. The memorex part comes in when they see him screw up. Just once. As a rookie.
For some, that even includes Justin Gilbert.
That's more the "moron" part.
But I digress: Andrea Hangst (Bleacher Report) wrote a fine article projecting the floors and cielings of the more prominant Browns' 2015 rookies.
Andrea might read this blog. I made the mistake of sending them and the Dawg Pound Daily my link, and tend to be impressed by writers who "catch up" to me later.
Anyway, this was objective and insightful.
I hadn't known that Flip had penciled Cam Erving in at right guard for now (thanks A). I was pretty sure that they'd put him at right tackle, but DeFelippo and company know a little more about it than I do.
It's still quite possible that he moves one slot to his right later on, since he has to actually outperform the vastly more experienced 11th-best guard in the NFL in 30-year-old John Greco.
As good as Erving is, as a rookie he might not manage that.
I suspect that the rationale is that Greco is 30 years old, and can play several positions. As a utility guy, Greco could prolong his career, and represents outstanding depth.
Mitchell Schwartze is the weak link here, and as I cited in my previous blog, he'll never have the "feet" he needs to deal with edge-rushers.
But Flip plans to use tight ends and an H-back a lot, and they can help with protection. He plans to run (and dump off) a lot, and pushing people around is one thing Schwartze does quite well.
The guy Andrea sees in greatest danger is ILB Hayes Pullard, and she's right.
But even she doesn't realize that Scott Solomon is a true linebacker, and can play (well) inside if not called on to cover.
We all know about Kirksey, Robertson, and Dansby here, but Tank Carder (much like Jordan Poyer) has been making some waves of his own.
Another factor is the fact that while a 3-4 is the base defense, the nature of modern offenses will keep that off the field more often than not, as nickel and dime defenses are called for.
One of the inside linebackers is often off the field, and at times both are replaced by defensive backs. The active roster on any given sunday will feature four inside linebackers at most.
My guess is that three is the more likely number because of Solomon and Mingo.
Yes, Mingo, because he can cover tight ends and even some recievers better than any other linebacker on the roster.
Interesting to note that Andrea gives running back Luke Lundy a shot if he competes at fullback. He's a longshot, though. Too bad because he looks like he can play.
I may have sold Vince Mayle short due to shallow amateur scouting reports. He actually is a natural receiver with good hands. His drops were intermittent and had to do with concentration issues. His clock times also have little to do with his game-speed.
Dwayne Bowe is absolutely the perfect example/mentor for Mayle, as they're almost the same player physically. Bowe, while he became a pretty good wide receiver in the NFL, only arguably performed up to his draft status and pay for a couple seasons. With the benefit of his guidance here, Mayle could well do better.
My guess would be Bowe, Hartline, Gabriel, Hawkins and (at the bottom) Mayle.
I don't hate Travis Benjamin, but he's a probable casualty.
Flip keeps surprising me, so I can't guess how he'll use this crew. I assume that Mayle will only be used in spots and brought along slowly. All four of the other guys will see lots of action.
When DeFelippo first came on board, I didn't know what to think, but I now know that he's creative and thinks outside the box. The best coaches don't copy other people. Other people copy them.
This is why I believe that Terrelle Pryor has a chance. Hasn't Flip been fooling around with Hawkins in the backfield? If Josh Cribbs could run the wildcat, couldn't Pryor (and even throw the ball once in awhile)?
It's true that Pryor has a lot to learn, but his physical talent is above reproach. Outside the boxes and free of labels, Flip probably sees Pryor as a swiss army knife.
If he makes the final roster, they might call him a wide reciever, tight end, or h-back. Doesn't matter. He can do all of those things. Well...if he can catch, anyway.
Last season, Ray Farmer tried to sneak Charles Johnson onto the practice squad, and Minnesota was on him like white on rice. He developed into Teddy Bridgewater's favorite target, and the sky is his limit today.
Johnson had limited experience at wide receiver, and Pryor has zero, so that's different. But Pryor is bigger, taller, and faster. Johnson couldn't play tight end or H-back. And as a quarterback, Pryor at least knows how to make himself quarterback-friendly.
Because if he can catch, and Ray loses him, and in 2016 he tears up the NFL, I'll be on him like white on rice again.
I invented the term MM (Memorex Moron) to describe typical fans who ignore this. If the guy isn't already a starter, he's dead to them. The memorex part comes in when they see him screw up. Just once. As a rookie.
For some, that even includes Justin Gilbert.
That's more the "moron" part.
But I digress: Andrea Hangst (Bleacher Report) wrote a fine article projecting the floors and cielings of the more prominant Browns' 2015 rookies.
Andrea might read this blog. I made the mistake of sending them and the Dawg Pound Daily my link, and tend to be impressed by writers who "catch up" to me later.
Anyway, this was objective and insightful.
I hadn't known that Flip had penciled Cam Erving in at right guard for now (thanks A). I was pretty sure that they'd put him at right tackle, but DeFelippo and company know a little more about it than I do.
It's still quite possible that he moves one slot to his right later on, since he has to actually outperform the vastly more experienced 11th-best guard in the NFL in 30-year-old John Greco.
As good as Erving is, as a rookie he might not manage that.
I suspect that the rationale is that Greco is 30 years old, and can play several positions. As a utility guy, Greco could prolong his career, and represents outstanding depth.
Mitchell Schwartze is the weak link here, and as I cited in my previous blog, he'll never have the "feet" he needs to deal with edge-rushers.
But Flip plans to use tight ends and an H-back a lot, and they can help with protection. He plans to run (and dump off) a lot, and pushing people around is one thing Schwartze does quite well.
The guy Andrea sees in greatest danger is ILB Hayes Pullard, and she's right.
But even she doesn't realize that Scott Solomon is a true linebacker, and can play (well) inside if not called on to cover.
We all know about Kirksey, Robertson, and Dansby here, but Tank Carder (much like Jordan Poyer) has been making some waves of his own.
Another factor is the fact that while a 3-4 is the base defense, the nature of modern offenses will keep that off the field more often than not, as nickel and dime defenses are called for.
One of the inside linebackers is often off the field, and at times both are replaced by defensive backs. The active roster on any given sunday will feature four inside linebackers at most.
My guess is that three is the more likely number because of Solomon and Mingo.
Yes, Mingo, because he can cover tight ends and even some recievers better than any other linebacker on the roster.
Interesting to note that Andrea gives running back Luke Lundy a shot if he competes at fullback. He's a longshot, though. Too bad because he looks like he can play.
I may have sold Vince Mayle short due to shallow amateur scouting reports. He actually is a natural receiver with good hands. His drops were intermittent and had to do with concentration issues. His clock times also have little to do with his game-speed.
Dwayne Bowe is absolutely the perfect example/mentor for Mayle, as they're almost the same player physically. Bowe, while he became a pretty good wide receiver in the NFL, only arguably performed up to his draft status and pay for a couple seasons. With the benefit of his guidance here, Mayle could well do better.
My guess would be Bowe, Hartline, Gabriel, Hawkins and (at the bottom) Mayle.
I don't hate Travis Benjamin, but he's a probable casualty.
Flip keeps surprising me, so I can't guess how he'll use this crew. I assume that Mayle will only be used in spots and brought along slowly. All four of the other guys will see lots of action.
When DeFelippo first came on board, I didn't know what to think, but I now know that he's creative and thinks outside the box. The best coaches don't copy other people. Other people copy them.
This is why I believe that Terrelle Pryor has a chance. Hasn't Flip been fooling around with Hawkins in the backfield? If Josh Cribbs could run the wildcat, couldn't Pryor (and even throw the ball once in awhile)?
It's true that Pryor has a lot to learn, but his physical talent is above reproach. Outside the boxes and free of labels, Flip probably sees Pryor as a swiss army knife.
If he makes the final roster, they might call him a wide reciever, tight end, or h-back. Doesn't matter. He can do all of those things. Well...if he can catch, anyway.
Last season, Ray Farmer tried to sneak Charles Johnson onto the practice squad, and Minnesota was on him like white on rice. He developed into Teddy Bridgewater's favorite target, and the sky is his limit today.
Johnson had limited experience at wide receiver, and Pryor has zero, so that's different. But Pryor is bigger, taller, and faster. Johnson couldn't play tight end or H-back. And as a quarterback, Pryor at least knows how to make himself quarterback-friendly.
Because if he can catch, and Ray loses him, and in 2016 he tears up the NFL, I'll be on him like white on rice again.
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