Browns Moves: Projections

Free Agency:

I believe the Browns will pursue Mike Wallace, Paul Kruger, Keenan Lewis, other cornerbacks and OLB's, and athletic free-agent guards.  They already are clearly looking at wide recievers.

Unlike most pundits, I'm trying hard not to project my own wishes into this, but instead trying to be Joe Banner.  This is hard for me, since I would never endanger my company by firing exceptional people and hiring my buddies because they were my buddies.

Anyway, results:

1: Mike Wallace is a mercenary gouger, and Banner rightfully probably can't meet his over-the-top demands.  I actually expect him to take LESS money to sign with New England.  (This in the hopes that he can win a Superbowl and then hold out to demand more money later.)

2: I think there's a pretty good chance that they can sign Keenan Lewis, if Pittsburgh doesn't make a deal with the Devil or something to come up with money for him...which...would just figure.

3: The Browns have a decent shot at Kruger or the Dallas OLB.  Not every team is switching to the 3-4, 4-3 teams don't need them, and this draft is LOADED with 3-4 OLB's, so there shouldn't be any rediculous bidding wars.

4: I bet the Browns do land a good athletic guard in free agency, who will actually start for them.  Everyone has written off Miller at RG, but he could surprise everybody but me and start, too.

5: I can't believe that Lombardi would pursue Matt Cassel simply because he knows him.  Cassel has had several years to accomplish something as a starter and has failed.  He could be brought in as a backup, with lip service to a competition.

6: I believe that Matt Moore will be their main target.  Moore has the tools for Turner's offense.  I wouldn't put it past him to unseat Weeden, either, because this guy has flashed greatness along with mediocrity.  Superbowl MVP Rich Gannon was a late bloomer.  Hell, he was drafted as a safety.  They've got a good chance of getting Moore, and he'll see his own best chance to start here.

7: If they sign a reciever, he won't be a washed-up geezer.  I do not believe that Chud or Turner think that having an old geezer wide reciever is important in any way.  Number one is Gordon, number two is Little.  In a prefect world, Little is the slot guy, but for now he's number two.

8: They will consider Maluaga if the Bungles can't resign him.  He hasn't been a very good 4-3 MLB, but could be the thumper in the 3-4 who takes on guards...if he learns discipline, which he hasn't so far.

The Draft:

First, the wild card: Geno Smith.  Consensus has it that due to his most recent season, he's not worth a top ten pick.  But for one thing, his stats are skewed by one horrific game, like the one Dan Marino had at Pitt where he threw five interceptions.

Over a period of several games, something was wrong with him, and he made a lot of mistakes.  You can't erase that.  But when you look at his statistics, you simply can't find where those losses where his fault.  High percentage, TD-to-Int ratio, rating, etc.

I haven't researched it yet, but I do know that if his defense got him in trouble early and took the run off his table, and if he didn't have good recievers, well...

So I would only be semi-surprised if the Browns drafted Smith 6th overall (I don't believe they'll be able to trade down).  This will not be a Banner or Lombardi decision.  It will be Chud and Turner, and I believe Haslam will back his coaches if there's a debate.

This becomes more likely if you see armed guards surrounding their table as they go on the clock; and maybe one of those bullet-proof domes like the Pope uses.

Otherwise, it's 50/50 between Milliner and (drumroll please) Ezekial Ansah.

Signing Lewis or an OLB will effect this decision.  The Browns have some nickel guys, but really in a perfect world you need THREE man cornerbacks in today's NFL, so they could sign Lewis and still draft Milliner.

Conversely, you should have three OLB's (depth).  As it stands, they believe that Jabaal Sheard can play his new hybrid position.  Signing Kruger would help immensely, but here's the deal:

Milliner is an excellent cornerback.  Anzah is a FREAK.  A pass-rush helps coverage more than the opposite.  Anzah helps more vs the run, and can cover well himself (and yes he HAS stood up and covered people).

Anzah played all over the place, in fact, including DT and even occasionally nose tackle.  He's 6'5" but instinctively, from the get-go, he got under a guard or center's pads and pushed him right into the backfield.  He instictively understands leverage (and reach), and knows how to use them.  He was born to play football.

No, he wouldn't play nose tackle here, but in some fronts he could line up inside Sheard or Kruger.  Kruger isn't a Joker.  Sheard isn't either.  Anzah is a joker, who from down-to-down might set up anywhere.  Ray Horton will want this guy, bad.

Okay I'm ranting now, and am no longer objective either.  With a free agent cornerback and a free agent OLB in-house, it's still like 55-45 Anzah over Milliner.

Probably, the Detroit Lions will simplify this, as they need both a passrushing 3-4 DE and a cover cornerback, and there's an excellent chance they will draft one of these two.  Mingo isn't a possibility for them, and Jones is smaller and has the stenosis; Anzah is almost certainly their guy if they go DL with that pick.

I know that a lot of people love Jarvis Jones, but Mayock and others have me convinced that Anzah has a much higher cieling, and I do believe so will Ray Horton (notice I didn't say Lombardi, although he'll probably agree anyway.)