Monday, February 18, 2013

Browns Draft Stuff

I just read an article promoting Barkevious Mingo as a potential #6 overall pick for the Browns.  Mingo is the most physicly talented of the OLB prospects, with the most potential.

But the author didn't seem to understand the 3-4 defense.  He seemed to think that Mingo or anybody like him would spend most of his time with his hand on the ground next to Taylor or Rubin; that 250 lb. defensive ends are the norm for the 3-4.

A lot of very smart literate people write about football, but some don't understand it.

He was accidentally right about Mingo.  Some will say "We don't need a project"--obviously overstating Mingo's inexperience.  But rumor has it that this guy has clocked below 4.5 in the 40!

He's skinny (at 240) right now, but has a long frame that will fill out; NFL strength coaches will pump him up to over 255, possibly by his second NFL season.  He lacks "moves" and relies on speed and unusual flexibility right now.  What about when he's much stronger and has all the moves?

On the other hand, that's no sure thing.  Some of the scouting reports on him imply that he's the best pure passrusher in this draft, but that once he sees it's a run, he sort of gives up.  He does get washed out and dominated by offensive linemen, and can't get off blocks.

Mingo is a guy who can probably start right away at 3-4 OLB--but opposing coordinators might well target him on runs, and he aint ready for that.  Nor is it any guarantee that he'll psychologicly adapt, and work as hard as he needs to--especially on getting off run-blocks.

The scouts will have to figure that part out.  The only guarantee here is that Mingo looks like a great NFL pass rusher...you just can't use a 6th overall draft pick on a one-dimensional player unless you're pretty confident that he'll develop better skills against the run in short order.

Damontre Moore is NFL-ready, but already pretty close to his potential.  Mike Mayock in his most recent (pre-combine) mock draft has them taking Jarvis Jones, and far be it from me to disagree.  But Moore could be better both in the short and long-term.

I've seen a few tapes (not scouting tapes, but those available to everybody) of both Jones and Moore, and find them remarkably similar to eachother.  But Moore, a junior, seems obsessively dedicated.  He already has all the moves.  He moved from OLB to DE and never missed a beat; he was one of the best in college football at each position.

...and he doesn't even have a mild case of spinal stenosis.

All of this is based on the assumption that with the 6th overall pick, the Browns go for an OLB rather than Dee Miliner, the consensus-best cornerback in this draft.

Signing Paul Kruger, or another free agent 3-4 OLB, along with checking out Sheard and others at the positon, will influence this.  As I've mentioned in previous blogs, Gocong hasn't gone anywhere, and there are sleepers on this roster.

In response to an "ask Tony" comment I read:  The questioner pointed out that a Paul Kruger et al, if he signed with the Browns, might well look around him at the comparative lack of talent on this team and say "oh well, I got my money", and no longer play as hard.

A good point, as Tony said.  But then, the questioner is not a pro football player.

The comparative "lack of talent" will not exist for him, because it doesn't exist in reality.  Phil Taylor may never be Ngata, but this defensive line should be as good as the Ravens overall.  Kruger and everybody else knew that Ray Lewis was done; in fact that Jackson has been a better player for a couple years already.

He should like half the secondary just fine, help Sheard learn the ropes, and, at worst, be enthusiastic about being the big fish for a change.

Don't get me started on the running back and wide recievers, and maybe even
Weeden in Norv Turner's new offense.

Football players, unlike Browns' fans, don't think "This is a 5-11 team therefore we're all gonna die".  They see each player at each position, and go by what they see.  Kruger might decide that the Browns' defense is just a tad better or worse than the Ravens talent-wise, and will almost certainly say to himself "Not any more.  I'M here now!"

And yes, talent-wise, it is, in reality, pretty damn close.

YOU STAND CORRECTED.


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