Smith. Definitely Geno Smith.
Ah, shaddap! I finally saw some films of him, and was amazed. All the quarterback-bashing of this draft class (among the pundits) has become insane.
Last season, Russell Wilson was thought to be a "good backup eventually". You had Luck and RGIII and guys named Joe.
Smith isn't at their level, but he looks better than Tannehill and Weeden did, and that's where objective people will put him. Right below the former two, mainly because he's a junior.
Yeah Joe Banner said he wouldn't use his top pick on a quarterback "at this time", and then said "I will never lie to you" HAAA-HAHAHAHAHAHA!
No, I'm not saying that they WILL draft Geno with the 6th overall pick, only that I would. But trust me: Chud and Turner aren't going to sit back and let anybody else make all the decisions, and both of these guys know quarterbacks. If I'm wrong, they won't take him, and they know better than me.
So stipulated. But once again, some of the scouting reports I read were over-the-top critical. I believe that the negativity came from their focus on his worst games.
Apparantly in those games he got antsy when he had to check down, and locked onto his recievers.
But this is the difference between a pundit and a real scout: You don't zero in on one or two games and generalize. You don't say "Is uncomfortable when he has to check to his second and third reads" or "Tends to lock onto his target" and ignore how he's performed in the vast majority of his games.
That's the opposite. He moves well in the pocket, progresses smoothly, looks off safeties, throws first, runs last, can throw on the run (keeps his eyes downfield), and even called his own plays.
You don't question his offensive system because he's thrown a lot of passes underneath when I just watched a highlight tape FULL OF beautiful, perfect long bombs! How can you express doubt about his arm or deep accuracy when it's on tape!?
Chud likes the pistol and the zone-read. This has been massively exhaggerrated, as if he intends to make this his base offense. But he would like to use it sometimes, and Smith can run it. Weeden can do the Pistol as well as anybody, but not the zone read.
If they did draft Smith, Weeden could still hold onto his job (for awhile), because he really doesn't suck simply because, as the only rookie stuck in a West Coast offense, he fell on his face.
Don't start with the "wasted pick" stuff based on that. This is a quarterback, and as Gil Brandt, Bill Parcells, and others have said, you never pass on a potential franchise quarterback, even if you have a Peyton Manning or a Tom Brady already.
And when you say "Smith isn't worthy of a top ten pick", I'll say what Pat Kirwin says: "Did you get that out of your $7.99 draft guide that you got at the drug store?"
If it's me and I go on the clock, I'm running to the podium with Geno Smith's name on my card (then running back to get behind my armed guards and my bullet-proof dome. Not sure how I'd get home safely...but I digress).
The biggest thing with this kid? Well, you can expect his coach to back him and say he's great. Ok, but he also coached Brandon Weeden, and was far less enthusiastic about Weeden's work ethic and dedication. The contrast is stark. This guy clearly thinks Smith is the superior quarterback.
Again, Weeden could do well this season, and turn himself into excellent trade-bait. A quarterback is currency; an investment you can cash in later for draft picks.
If you believe that everybody else on the planet is wrong and you are right, you should do it.
Draft Geno Smith.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Browns Moves: Projections
Free Agency:
I believe the Browns will pursue Mike Wallace, Paul Kruger, Keenan Lewis, other cornerbacks and OLB's, and athletic free-agent guards. They already are clearly looking at wide recievers.
Unlike most pundits, I'm trying hard not to project my own wishes into this, but instead trying to be Joe Banner. This is hard for me, since I would never endanger my company by firing exceptional people and hiring my buddies because they were my buddies.
Anyway, results:
1: Mike Wallace is a mercenary gouger, and Banner rightfully probably can't meet his over-the-top demands. I actually expect him to take LESS money to sign with New England. (This in the hopes that he can win a Superbowl and then hold out to demand more money later.)
2: I think there's a pretty good chance that they can sign Keenan Lewis, if Pittsburgh doesn't make a deal with the Devil or something to come up with money for him...which...would just figure.
3: The Browns have a decent shot at Kruger or the Dallas OLB. Not every team is switching to the 3-4, 4-3 teams don't need them, and this draft is LOADED with 3-4 OLB's, so there shouldn't be any rediculous bidding wars.
4: I bet the Browns do land a good athletic guard in free agency, who will actually start for them. Everyone has written off Miller at RG, but he could surprise everybody but me and start, too.
5: I can't believe that Lombardi would pursue Matt Cassel simply because he knows him. Cassel has had several years to accomplish something as a starter and has failed. He could be brought in as a backup, with lip service to a competition.
6: I believe that Matt Moore will be their main target. Moore has the tools for Turner's offense. I wouldn't put it past him to unseat Weeden, either, because this guy has flashed greatness along with mediocrity. Superbowl MVP Rich Gannon was a late bloomer. Hell, he was drafted as a safety. They've got a good chance of getting Moore, and he'll see his own best chance to start here.
7: If they sign a reciever, he won't be a washed-up geezer. I do not believe that Chud or Turner think that having an old geezer wide reciever is important in any way. Number one is Gordon, number two is Little. In a prefect world, Little is the slot guy, but for now he's number two.
8: They will consider Maluaga if the Bungles can't resign him. He hasn't been a very good 4-3 MLB, but could be the thumper in the 3-4 who takes on guards...if he learns discipline, which he hasn't so far.
The Draft:
First, the wild card: Geno Smith. Consensus has it that due to his most recent season, he's not worth a top ten pick. But for one thing, his stats are skewed by one horrific game, like the one Dan Marino had at Pitt where he threw five interceptions.
Over a period of several games, something was wrong with him, and he made a lot of mistakes. You can't erase that. But when you look at his statistics, you simply can't find where those losses where his fault. High percentage, TD-to-Int ratio, rating, etc.
I haven't researched it yet, but I do know that if his defense got him in trouble early and took the run off his table, and if he didn't have good recievers, well...
So I would only be semi-surprised if the Browns drafted Smith 6th overall (I don't believe they'll be able to trade down). This will not be a Banner or Lombardi decision. It will be Chud and Turner, and I believe Haslam will back his coaches if there's a debate.
This becomes more likely if you see armed guards surrounding their table as they go on the clock; and maybe one of those bullet-proof domes like the Pope uses.
Otherwise, it's 50/50 between Milliner and (drumroll please) Ezekial Ansah.
Signing Lewis or an OLB will effect this decision. The Browns have some nickel guys, but really in a perfect world you need THREE man cornerbacks in today's NFL, so they could sign Lewis and still draft Milliner.
Conversely, you should have three OLB's (depth). As it stands, they believe that Jabaal Sheard can play his new hybrid position. Signing Kruger would help immensely, but here's the deal:
Milliner is an excellent cornerback. Anzah is a FREAK. A pass-rush helps coverage more than the opposite. Anzah helps more vs the run, and can cover well himself (and yes he HAS stood up and covered people).
Anzah played all over the place, in fact, including DT and even occasionally nose tackle. He's 6'5" but instinctively, from the get-go, he got under a guard or center's pads and pushed him right into the backfield. He instictively understands leverage (and reach), and knows how to use them. He was born to play football.
No, he wouldn't play nose tackle here, but in some fronts he could line up inside Sheard or Kruger. Kruger isn't a Joker. Sheard isn't either. Anzah is a joker, who from down-to-down might set up anywhere. Ray Horton will want this guy, bad.
Okay I'm ranting now, and am no longer objective either. With a free agent cornerback and a free agent OLB in-house, it's still like 55-45 Anzah over Milliner.
Probably, the Detroit Lions will simplify this, as they need both a passrushing 3-4 DE and a cover cornerback, and there's an excellent chance they will draft one of these two. Mingo isn't a possibility for them, and Jones is smaller and has the stenosis; Anzah is almost certainly their guy if they go DL with that pick.
I know that a lot of people love Jarvis Jones, but Mayock and others have me convinced that Anzah has a much higher cieling, and I do believe so will Ray Horton (notice I didn't say Lombardi, although he'll probably agree anyway.)
I believe the Browns will pursue Mike Wallace, Paul Kruger, Keenan Lewis, other cornerbacks and OLB's, and athletic free-agent guards. They already are clearly looking at wide recievers.
Unlike most pundits, I'm trying hard not to project my own wishes into this, but instead trying to be Joe Banner. This is hard for me, since I would never endanger my company by firing exceptional people and hiring my buddies because they were my buddies.
Anyway, results:
1: Mike Wallace is a mercenary gouger, and Banner rightfully probably can't meet his over-the-top demands. I actually expect him to take LESS money to sign with New England. (This in the hopes that he can win a Superbowl and then hold out to demand more money later.)
2: I think there's a pretty good chance that they can sign Keenan Lewis, if Pittsburgh doesn't make a deal with the Devil or something to come up with money for him...which...would just figure.
3: The Browns have a decent shot at Kruger or the Dallas OLB. Not every team is switching to the 3-4, 4-3 teams don't need them, and this draft is LOADED with 3-4 OLB's, so there shouldn't be any rediculous bidding wars.
4: I bet the Browns do land a good athletic guard in free agency, who will actually start for them. Everyone has written off Miller at RG, but he could surprise everybody but me and start, too.
5: I can't believe that Lombardi would pursue Matt Cassel simply because he knows him. Cassel has had several years to accomplish something as a starter and has failed. He could be brought in as a backup, with lip service to a competition.
6: I believe that Matt Moore will be their main target. Moore has the tools for Turner's offense. I wouldn't put it past him to unseat Weeden, either, because this guy has flashed greatness along with mediocrity. Superbowl MVP Rich Gannon was a late bloomer. Hell, he was drafted as a safety. They've got a good chance of getting Moore, and he'll see his own best chance to start here.
7: If they sign a reciever, he won't be a washed-up geezer. I do not believe that Chud or Turner think that having an old geezer wide reciever is important in any way. Number one is Gordon, number two is Little. In a prefect world, Little is the slot guy, but for now he's number two.
8: They will consider Maluaga if the Bungles can't resign him. He hasn't been a very good 4-3 MLB, but could be the thumper in the 3-4 who takes on guards...if he learns discipline, which he hasn't so far.
The Draft:
First, the wild card: Geno Smith. Consensus has it that due to his most recent season, he's not worth a top ten pick. But for one thing, his stats are skewed by one horrific game, like the one Dan Marino had at Pitt where he threw five interceptions.
Over a period of several games, something was wrong with him, and he made a lot of mistakes. You can't erase that. But when you look at his statistics, you simply can't find where those losses where his fault. High percentage, TD-to-Int ratio, rating, etc.
I haven't researched it yet, but I do know that if his defense got him in trouble early and took the run off his table, and if he didn't have good recievers, well...
So I would only be semi-surprised if the Browns drafted Smith 6th overall (I don't believe they'll be able to trade down). This will not be a Banner or Lombardi decision. It will be Chud and Turner, and I believe Haslam will back his coaches if there's a debate.
This becomes more likely if you see armed guards surrounding their table as they go on the clock; and maybe one of those bullet-proof domes like the Pope uses.
Otherwise, it's 50/50 between Milliner and (drumroll please) Ezekial Ansah.
Signing Lewis or an OLB will effect this decision. The Browns have some nickel guys, but really in a perfect world you need THREE man cornerbacks in today's NFL, so they could sign Lewis and still draft Milliner.
Conversely, you should have three OLB's (depth). As it stands, they believe that Jabaal Sheard can play his new hybrid position. Signing Kruger would help immensely, but here's the deal:
Milliner is an excellent cornerback. Anzah is a FREAK. A pass-rush helps coverage more than the opposite. Anzah helps more vs the run, and can cover well himself (and yes he HAS stood up and covered people).
Anzah played all over the place, in fact, including DT and even occasionally nose tackle. He's 6'5" but instinctively, from the get-go, he got under a guard or center's pads and pushed him right into the backfield. He instictively understands leverage (and reach), and knows how to use them. He was born to play football.
No, he wouldn't play nose tackle here, but in some fronts he could line up inside Sheard or Kruger. Kruger isn't a Joker. Sheard isn't either. Anzah is a joker, who from down-to-down might set up anywhere. Ray Horton will want this guy, bad.
Okay I'm ranting now, and am no longer objective either. With a free agent cornerback and a free agent OLB in-house, it's still like 55-45 Anzah over Milliner.
Probably, the Detroit Lions will simplify this, as they need both a passrushing 3-4 DE and a cover cornerback, and there's an excellent chance they will draft one of these two. Mingo isn't a possibility for them, and Jones is smaller and has the stenosis; Anzah is almost certainly their guy if they go DL with that pick.
I know that a lot of people love Jarvis Jones, but Mayock and others have me convinced that Anzah has a much higher cieling, and I do believe so will Ray Horton (notice I didn't say Lombardi, although he'll probably agree anyway.)
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Changed My Mind
I've decided to tell Joe and the guys to draft Ziggy Ansah at #6 instead of Barkevious. Ansah ran two one hundredths of a second slower, and weighs over 270. All muscle with 38" arms. A former basketball player and track star.
Like Mingo, he is raw (even rawer...like Jason Pierre-Paul raw), but he has brute strength to go with his freaky speed and quickness, which sort of trumps Mingo.
Ziggy is more of a bird in the hand because he doesn't need to get bigger, is stronger against the run, and the lack of experience is kind of a wash.
For those who say we don't need a "project" check out what Pierre-Paul did while learning on the job! Then go home.
The problem is Detroit. He can play 4-3 DE too, and Schwartz is libel to nab him.
I know, many think the pick should be Milliner, and I get it. But I feel that the most likely free agent signing this offseason is Keenan Lewis. He's not as good as Milliner, but he is very good, and that would lessen the need for a cornerback.
More on Ansah: I have to confess that I had him confused with Mingo. During Senior Bowl practices, Ansah was pretty lost. He got unlost steadily and quickly each day, and started humiliating everybody. Then, when the lights came on, he got 1.5 sacks, and spent most of his limitted time in the backfield. He was a man playing with boys, is how good he was (playing DE, I believe).
Ask Horton if he'd pass on this kid because he's raw. He'll laugh at you. Football can be taught.
Rich Gannon sort of did it again. He mentioned Josh Gordon and yawned, and said that Greg Little has been a disappointment.
Earlier the same day, former GM Pat Kirwin, who actually looks at films, was asked by a Cleveland fan about the second-rounder this year for Josh Gordon last year:
He admitted that at the time he didn't like it, but after he watched the kid develop, he was amazed by how quickly he improved from week-to-week, and he believes that if he'd remained in college, he could well be the first reciever off the board.
Unlike Rich, Pat projects into the future. He's pretty sure that Gordon will be better this season than he was last season duh. He's also aware that Greg Little stopped dropping passes early in the season, and has become a pretty good reciever DUHHH. After the first few games, He dropped around one out of ELEVEN passes, Rich!
The Bungles will probably release Rey Malaluaga (sp?)...
Many variables. Do they steal Paul Kruger, and/or somebody else? This is why I ask:
Star Loutetelei is a superhuman monster, but he is a defensive tackle or nose tackle. This is not a "need", but I can't help daydreaming about having the best 3/4 defensive line in football.
I know, probably not. I guess we might have to settle for Ansah, Milliner, or Mingo. Oh well.
Like Mingo, he is raw (even rawer...like Jason Pierre-Paul raw), but he has brute strength to go with his freaky speed and quickness, which sort of trumps Mingo.
Ziggy is more of a bird in the hand because he doesn't need to get bigger, is stronger against the run, and the lack of experience is kind of a wash.
For those who say we don't need a "project" check out what Pierre-Paul did while learning on the job! Then go home.
The problem is Detroit. He can play 4-3 DE too, and Schwartz is libel to nab him.
I know, many think the pick should be Milliner, and I get it. But I feel that the most likely free agent signing this offseason is Keenan Lewis. He's not as good as Milliner, but he is very good, and that would lessen the need for a cornerback.
More on Ansah: I have to confess that I had him confused with Mingo. During Senior Bowl practices, Ansah was pretty lost. He got unlost steadily and quickly each day, and started humiliating everybody. Then, when the lights came on, he got 1.5 sacks, and spent most of his limitted time in the backfield. He was a man playing with boys, is how good he was (playing DE, I believe).
Ask Horton if he'd pass on this kid because he's raw. He'll laugh at you. Football can be taught.
Rich Gannon sort of did it again. He mentioned Josh Gordon and yawned, and said that Greg Little has been a disappointment.
Earlier the same day, former GM Pat Kirwin, who actually looks at films, was asked by a Cleveland fan about the second-rounder this year for Josh Gordon last year:
He admitted that at the time he didn't like it, but after he watched the kid develop, he was amazed by how quickly he improved from week-to-week, and he believes that if he'd remained in college, he could well be the first reciever off the board.
Unlike Rich, Pat projects into the future. He's pretty sure that Gordon will be better this season than he was last season duh. He's also aware that Greg Little stopped dropping passes early in the season, and has become a pretty good reciever DUHHH. After the first few games, He dropped around one out of ELEVEN passes, Rich!
The Bungles will probably release Rey Malaluaga (sp?)...
Many variables. Do they steal Paul Kruger, and/or somebody else? This is why I ask:
Star Loutetelei is a superhuman monster, but he is a defensive tackle or nose tackle. This is not a "need", but I can't help daydreaming about having the best 3/4 defensive line in football.
I know, probably not. I guess we might have to settle for Ansah, Milliner, or Mingo. Oh well.
Monday, February 25, 2013
More Browns' Draft Stuff
First, some corrections:
1: D'Qwell Jackson does have trouble getting off blocks sometimes in the 3-4, and the solution is indeed to have a "thumper" next to him. The ILB's in a 3-4 do have different roles, and one ILB can be protected. The easiest way is to bias the nose tackle's set to his side of the center, but there are others.
James Micheal Johnson does have better reach and size, and might be able to fill that role. If not, a healthy Chris Cocong DEFINITELY can.
2: If Joe Flacco or anybody else opt to avoid playing for the Browns, it will NOT be because the team lacks talent. This inferiority complex is largely a local phenomenon. Browns fans are superstitious, so they think coaches and front office people turn stupid when they get here.
The former GMs, coaches, and players in the national media all pretty much agree that the Browns are up-and-coming and don't have a lot of holes to fill.
Please quit saying that. Itemize the holes. QB, maybe. Guard--not exactly a "hole", see? Just a postion that could use an upgrade. D-line? Please get back on your meds. ILB? Put down the shovel, JMJ and Gocong aren't dead yet. OLB? OK there's one. Starting corner? That makes two. Safety? You got it that's three. Three holes. I'll even give you tight end, since Cameron is just one guy and could get hurt again.
Four. That's not a lot. It's not realistic to look at the Pro Bowl and call every player who isn't there a "hole".
I have emailed Joe and Mike and advised them to take Barkevious Mingo at #6, mostly because of his cool name.
Actually, I had thought that the other guys were explosive quick-twitch guys, but when Mike Mayock says they're not, I listen.
There are good and bad things in his scouting reports, and the bad things are why the Detroit Lions, a 4-3 team, won't draft him. The good things are why the 3-4 Browns might.
In this defense, Mingo would only put his hand on the ground on passing downs. As a linebacker, he can insure some distance between himself and potential blockers before the snap. He can see the whole backfield.
He does have a high metabolism, and every ounce of weight he gains will be muscle. I'm told he'll have a hard time getting bigger because he's hardwired to be lean, but as he ages this will become easier.
He was 240 at the combine; he had gained some weight in a short time.
But another thing to remember is that he is pretty raw, and hasn't yet learned hand-fighting techniques, which are really literally martial arts. No really-I mean like "wax on, wax off" to get a big monster's hands off you and get by him; to get lower for leverage, to rip and swim, etc.
This guy is already ranked right there with much more experienced players, and he hasn't even approached his potential yet. He is the only one of them who has both the hips and speed to run with almost every tight end, many running backs, and even some wide recievers.
Disclaimer: He has the physical tools to cover these guys, but it's not guaranteed that he will.
His primary role as a rookie here would be to attack and disrupt. Horton would minimize his weaknesses (getting off blocks) as much as possible until he gets stronger and learns the dirty tricks.
Ideally, Paul Kruger can be signed, (along with Keenan Lewis, the massively underrated Steelers cornerback), so he could play opposite Mingo. Kruger is a very big, very strong dude.
Third round sliders:
EJ Manuel is getting too much attention, and might not fall that far. He's 5-0 in Bowl games and kicked butt in the Senior Bowl. This is a guy who thrives on pressure, and this can't be taught. He needs some polishing, but he'd be a good investment.
Jim Miller loves him even more than he did before, and I've learned to trust his opinions on other quarterbacks (even more than Mayocks'. PS Mayock likes him too-just not as much).
This is a good crop of guards, and an athletic one could well be available if the Browns haven't acquired a free agent like the guy in Buffalo.
The Michigan quarterback turned wide reciever Denard...Robinson? might fall that far. He's like Josh Cribbs, except smaller and faster. He's being checked out at running back, cornerback, returner, and reciever.
Pat Kirwin says he could be a nickel cornerback immediately, and after a year or so a real outside corner. He has decent height, to go with everything else, for that position.
I don't trust Ozzie. What's coming out of Baltimore in re Flacco is insane. If he gets the unrestricted tag, Banner could use some of his spare cap-space to structure an offer that Ozzie could never match; as in over 25 million against the cap in year one (less in subsequent years, of course).
Flacco could nix this, and take less money to remain there, and it's possible that he's already made Ozzie some promises.
The restricted tag, in lieu of a deal, is more likely. That's two first round picks, and the team signing him could never make that deal without long-term contract in hand.
For all the people declaring that Ebeneezer Banner would never do that, he'd have to seriously consider it, because Joe Flacco is the ONE GUY who could take THIS TEAM deep into the playoffs in year one.
This is more likely. Ozzie is in cap hell and knows that with or without Big Joe, his team will take a step back this season. Regardless of what PR he puts out, he knows it, and getting two first-round picks might be his smartest move.
Unfortunately, I think a deal will be made. It's just nice to dream.
1: D'Qwell Jackson does have trouble getting off blocks sometimes in the 3-4, and the solution is indeed to have a "thumper" next to him. The ILB's in a 3-4 do have different roles, and one ILB can be protected. The easiest way is to bias the nose tackle's set to his side of the center, but there are others.
James Micheal Johnson does have better reach and size, and might be able to fill that role. If not, a healthy Chris Cocong DEFINITELY can.
2: If Joe Flacco or anybody else opt to avoid playing for the Browns, it will NOT be because the team lacks talent. This inferiority complex is largely a local phenomenon. Browns fans are superstitious, so they think coaches and front office people turn stupid when they get here.
The former GMs, coaches, and players in the national media all pretty much agree that the Browns are up-and-coming and don't have a lot of holes to fill.
Please quit saying that. Itemize the holes. QB, maybe. Guard--not exactly a "hole", see? Just a postion that could use an upgrade. D-line? Please get back on your meds. ILB? Put down the shovel, JMJ and Gocong aren't dead yet. OLB? OK there's one. Starting corner? That makes two. Safety? You got it that's three. Three holes. I'll even give you tight end, since Cameron is just one guy and could get hurt again.
Four. That's not a lot. It's not realistic to look at the Pro Bowl and call every player who isn't there a "hole".
I have emailed Joe and Mike and advised them to take Barkevious Mingo at #6, mostly because of his cool name.
Actually, I had thought that the other guys were explosive quick-twitch guys, but when Mike Mayock says they're not, I listen.
There are good and bad things in his scouting reports, and the bad things are why the Detroit Lions, a 4-3 team, won't draft him. The good things are why the 3-4 Browns might.
In this defense, Mingo would only put his hand on the ground on passing downs. As a linebacker, he can insure some distance between himself and potential blockers before the snap. He can see the whole backfield.
He does have a high metabolism, and every ounce of weight he gains will be muscle. I'm told he'll have a hard time getting bigger because he's hardwired to be lean, but as he ages this will become easier.
He was 240 at the combine; he had gained some weight in a short time.
But another thing to remember is that he is pretty raw, and hasn't yet learned hand-fighting techniques, which are really literally martial arts. No really-I mean like "wax on, wax off" to get a big monster's hands off you and get by him; to get lower for leverage, to rip and swim, etc.
This guy is already ranked right there with much more experienced players, and he hasn't even approached his potential yet. He is the only one of them who has both the hips and speed to run with almost every tight end, many running backs, and even some wide recievers.
Disclaimer: He has the physical tools to cover these guys, but it's not guaranteed that he will.
His primary role as a rookie here would be to attack and disrupt. Horton would minimize his weaknesses (getting off blocks) as much as possible until he gets stronger and learns the dirty tricks.
Ideally, Paul Kruger can be signed, (along with Keenan Lewis, the massively underrated Steelers cornerback), so he could play opposite Mingo. Kruger is a very big, very strong dude.
Third round sliders:
EJ Manuel is getting too much attention, and might not fall that far. He's 5-0 in Bowl games and kicked butt in the Senior Bowl. This is a guy who thrives on pressure, and this can't be taught. He needs some polishing, but he'd be a good investment.
Jim Miller loves him even more than he did before, and I've learned to trust his opinions on other quarterbacks (even more than Mayocks'. PS Mayock likes him too-just not as much).
This is a good crop of guards, and an athletic one could well be available if the Browns haven't acquired a free agent like the guy in Buffalo.
The Michigan quarterback turned wide reciever Denard...Robinson? might fall that far. He's like Josh Cribbs, except smaller and faster. He's being checked out at running back, cornerback, returner, and reciever.
Pat Kirwin says he could be a nickel cornerback immediately, and after a year or so a real outside corner. He has decent height, to go with everything else, for that position.
I don't trust Ozzie. What's coming out of Baltimore in re Flacco is insane. If he gets the unrestricted tag, Banner could use some of his spare cap-space to structure an offer that Ozzie could never match; as in over 25 million against the cap in year one (less in subsequent years, of course).
Flacco could nix this, and take less money to remain there, and it's possible that he's already made Ozzie some promises.
The restricted tag, in lieu of a deal, is more likely. That's two first round picks, and the team signing him could never make that deal without long-term contract in hand.
For all the people declaring that Ebeneezer Banner would never do that, he'd have to seriously consider it, because Joe Flacco is the ONE GUY who could take THIS TEAM deep into the playoffs in year one.
This is more likely. Ozzie is in cap hell and knows that with or without Big Joe, his team will take a step back this season. Regardless of what PR he puts out, he knows it, and getting two first-round picks might be his smartest move.
Unfortunately, I think a deal will be made. It's just nice to dream.
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
Who Said Anything About Trading Weeden?
Whoever wrote that it would be a bad idea to trade Brandon Weeden was right, but I have yet to find the person who suggested it. Why would you trade a guy when you have nobody to replace him with?
Maybe the guy thought it up himself, or was sitting in a bar surrounded by the out-of-work NFL Head Coaches and GM's who populate Cleveland pubs, and heard this notion there.
This bugs me. It's like saying they shouldn't make Phil Taylor a cornerback. It would be a bad idea to jump off a building.
And based on last season, who would trade for him? Wait--I have the solution! Trade him to the Ravens for Joe Flacco!
And while Ben Watson is getting up there and may not be back, it bothers me that Alex Smith and Cameron Jordon are being buried prematurely.
I must admit that I haven't studied any tapes, but I'd like to know why his role as a fullback was "nothing more than a bandaid". True, he's a bit tall for that position, but bigger than many, and faster than all.
Further, Smith was a high draft pick because he was talented, with the speed to run deep routes, and good hands. He filled in admirably whenever Watson was hurt. What exactly is wrong with this guy? He's better than a lot of starting tight ends.
And Cameron. Two years ago he was a former wide reciever/basketball star who'd had one season at tight end. He had limitted football experience; he was a raw, unfinished product with speed and a great wingspan. Nobody who knows anything expected him to accomplish much as a rookie.
In his second season, he predictably played more. Suddenly he was bigger and stronger. But Ben Watson wasn't ready to give up. And hey, it's Ben Watson, okay? But Cameron's progress was partly why Smith was moved to fullback/h-back; Cameron became Watson II!
And now the Browns NEED a tight end?
Congratulations: You've won a gold medal in the Conclusion-leap.
Maybe the guy thought it up himself, or was sitting in a bar surrounded by the out-of-work NFL Head Coaches and GM's who populate Cleveland pubs, and heard this notion there.
This bugs me. It's like saying they shouldn't make Phil Taylor a cornerback. It would be a bad idea to jump off a building.
And based on last season, who would trade for him? Wait--I have the solution! Trade him to the Ravens for Joe Flacco!
And while Ben Watson is getting up there and may not be back, it bothers me that Alex Smith and Cameron Jordon are being buried prematurely.
I must admit that I haven't studied any tapes, but I'd like to know why his role as a fullback was "nothing more than a bandaid". True, he's a bit tall for that position, but bigger than many, and faster than all.
Further, Smith was a high draft pick because he was talented, with the speed to run deep routes, and good hands. He filled in admirably whenever Watson was hurt. What exactly is wrong with this guy? He's better than a lot of starting tight ends.
And Cameron. Two years ago he was a former wide reciever/basketball star who'd had one season at tight end. He had limitted football experience; he was a raw, unfinished product with speed and a great wingspan. Nobody who knows anything expected him to accomplish much as a rookie.
In his second season, he predictably played more. Suddenly he was bigger and stronger. But Ben Watson wasn't ready to give up. And hey, it's Ben Watson, okay? But Cameron's progress was partly why Smith was moved to fullback/h-back; Cameron became Watson II!
And now the Browns NEED a tight end?
Congratulations: You've won a gold medal in the Conclusion-leap.
Monday, February 18, 2013
Browns Draft Stuff
I just read an article promoting Barkevious Mingo as a potential #6 overall pick for the Browns. Mingo is the most physicly talented of the OLB prospects, with the most potential.
But the author didn't seem to understand the 3-4 defense. He seemed to think that Mingo or anybody like him would spend most of his time with his hand on the ground next to Taylor or Rubin; that 250 lb. defensive ends are the norm for the 3-4.
A lot of very smart literate people write about football, but some don't understand it.
He was accidentally right about Mingo. Some will say "We don't need a project"--obviously overstating Mingo's inexperience. But rumor has it that this guy has clocked below 4.5 in the 40!
He's skinny (at 240) right now, but has a long frame that will fill out; NFL strength coaches will pump him up to over 255, possibly by his second NFL season. He lacks "moves" and relies on speed and unusual flexibility right now. What about when he's much stronger and has all the moves?
On the other hand, that's no sure thing. Some of the scouting reports on him imply that he's the best pure passrusher in this draft, but that once he sees it's a run, he sort of gives up. He does get washed out and dominated by offensive linemen, and can't get off blocks.
Mingo is a guy who can probably start right away at 3-4 OLB--but opposing coordinators might well target him on runs, and he aint ready for that. Nor is it any guarantee that he'll psychologicly adapt, and work as hard as he needs to--especially on getting off run-blocks.
The scouts will have to figure that part out. The only guarantee here is that Mingo looks like a great NFL pass rusher...you just can't use a 6th overall draft pick on a one-dimensional player unless you're pretty confident that he'll develop better skills against the run in short order.
Damontre Moore is NFL-ready, but already pretty close to his potential. Mike Mayock in his most recent (pre-combine) mock draft has them taking Jarvis Jones, and far be it from me to disagree. But Moore could be better both in the short and long-term.
I've seen a few tapes (not scouting tapes, but those available to everybody) of both Jones and Moore, and find them remarkably similar to eachother. But Moore, a junior, seems obsessively dedicated. He already has all the moves. He moved from OLB to DE and never missed a beat; he was one of the best in college football at each position.
...and he doesn't even have a mild case of spinal stenosis.
All of this is based on the assumption that with the 6th overall pick, the Browns go for an OLB rather than Dee Miliner, the consensus-best cornerback in this draft.
Signing Paul Kruger, or another free agent 3-4 OLB, along with checking out Sheard and others at the positon, will influence this. As I've mentioned in previous blogs, Gocong hasn't gone anywhere, and there are sleepers on this roster.
In response to an "ask Tony" comment I read: The questioner pointed out that a Paul Kruger et al, if he signed with the Browns, might well look around him at the comparative lack of talent on this team and say "oh well, I got my money", and no longer play as hard.
A good point, as Tony said. But then, the questioner is not a pro football player.
The comparative "lack of talent" will not exist for him, because it doesn't exist in reality. Phil Taylor may never be Ngata, but this defensive line should be as good as the Ravens overall. Kruger and everybody else knew that Ray Lewis was done; in fact that Jackson has been a better player for a couple years already.
He should like half the secondary just fine, help Sheard learn the ropes, and, at worst, be enthusiastic about being the big fish for a change.
Don't get me started on the running back and wide recievers, and maybe even
Weeden in Norv Turner's new offense.
Football players, unlike Browns' fans, don't think "This is a 5-11 team therefore we're all gonna die". They see each player at each position, and go by what they see. Kruger might decide that the Browns' defense is just a tad better or worse than the Ravens talent-wise, and will almost certainly say to himself "Not any more. I'M here now!"
And yes, talent-wise, it is, in reality, pretty damn close.
YOU STAND CORRECTED.
But the author didn't seem to understand the 3-4 defense. He seemed to think that Mingo or anybody like him would spend most of his time with his hand on the ground next to Taylor or Rubin; that 250 lb. defensive ends are the norm for the 3-4.
A lot of very smart literate people write about football, but some don't understand it.
He was accidentally right about Mingo. Some will say "We don't need a project"--obviously overstating Mingo's inexperience. But rumor has it that this guy has clocked below 4.5 in the 40!
He's skinny (at 240) right now, but has a long frame that will fill out; NFL strength coaches will pump him up to over 255, possibly by his second NFL season. He lacks "moves" and relies on speed and unusual flexibility right now. What about when he's much stronger and has all the moves?
On the other hand, that's no sure thing. Some of the scouting reports on him imply that he's the best pure passrusher in this draft, but that once he sees it's a run, he sort of gives up. He does get washed out and dominated by offensive linemen, and can't get off blocks.
Mingo is a guy who can probably start right away at 3-4 OLB--but opposing coordinators might well target him on runs, and he aint ready for that. Nor is it any guarantee that he'll psychologicly adapt, and work as hard as he needs to--especially on getting off run-blocks.
The scouts will have to figure that part out. The only guarantee here is that Mingo looks like a great NFL pass rusher...you just can't use a 6th overall draft pick on a one-dimensional player unless you're pretty confident that he'll develop better skills against the run in short order.
Damontre Moore is NFL-ready, but already pretty close to his potential. Mike Mayock in his most recent (pre-combine) mock draft has them taking Jarvis Jones, and far be it from me to disagree. But Moore could be better both in the short and long-term.
I've seen a few tapes (not scouting tapes, but those available to everybody) of both Jones and Moore, and find them remarkably similar to eachother. But Moore, a junior, seems obsessively dedicated. He already has all the moves. He moved from OLB to DE and never missed a beat; he was one of the best in college football at each position.
...and he doesn't even have a mild case of spinal stenosis.
All of this is based on the assumption that with the 6th overall pick, the Browns go for an OLB rather than Dee Miliner, the consensus-best cornerback in this draft.
Signing Paul Kruger, or another free agent 3-4 OLB, along with checking out Sheard and others at the positon, will influence this. As I've mentioned in previous blogs, Gocong hasn't gone anywhere, and there are sleepers on this roster.
In response to an "ask Tony" comment I read: The questioner pointed out that a Paul Kruger et al, if he signed with the Browns, might well look around him at the comparative lack of talent on this team and say "oh well, I got my money", and no longer play as hard.
A good point, as Tony said. But then, the questioner is not a pro football player.
The comparative "lack of talent" will not exist for him, because it doesn't exist in reality. Phil Taylor may never be Ngata, but this defensive line should be as good as the Ravens overall. Kruger and everybody else knew that Ray Lewis was done; in fact that Jackson has been a better player for a couple years already.
He should like half the secondary just fine, help Sheard learn the ropes, and, at worst, be enthusiastic about being the big fish for a change.
Don't get me started on the running back and wide recievers, and maybe even
Weeden in Norv Turner's new offense.
Football players, unlike Browns' fans, don't think "This is a 5-11 team therefore we're all gonna die". They see each player at each position, and go by what they see. Kruger might decide that the Browns' defense is just a tad better or worse than the Ravens talent-wise, and will almost certainly say to himself "Not any more. I'M here now!"
And yes, talent-wise, it is, in reality, pretty damn close.
YOU STAND CORRECTED.
Thursday, February 14, 2013
Victor Cruz
Victor Cruz could mentor the Browns young recievers who need a mentor to teach them how to get open and catch balls and stuff. Without a mentor how are they supposed to learn all that stuff?
Sorry I couldn't help it. Okay, I'm confiscating the word "mentor". Also, I remind you that being a wide reciever is NOT rocket science.
But I digress: The Giants and Victor Cruz are far apart on his new contract, and it's quite possible he'll get the first-round tender this season.
Cruz is actually more desirable than Mike Wallace, because he's more reliable. Wallace does drop some balls (though not nearly to epic Braylon Scissorhands levels). It would take the Browns' sixth overall draft pick to get him.
Tough one, I know. WR is NOT a position of need, as the local consensus says it is. Few of the pundits understand that playing wide reciever is not rocket science, Turner's system is simpler than the West Coast, and receiver's coaches don't get paid to just sit there.
Gordon and Benjamin were rookies last season, and every analysis of them must be taken with that huge grain of salt. Most are reluctant to project anything positive about them, but in most cases second-year players do I M P R O V E DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?
While I'm re-regressing into this, outside recievers get jammed. Slot recievers generally don't, because without a rare nickel cornerback, that would be suicidal.
Despite WR not being a need (except in the imaginations of many), a guy like Cruz would instantly render this among the top WR corps' in the NFL. If you substitute Cruz for Wallace in all the projections, it's pretty much the same thing, except without the drops.
There are some very good cornerbacks and elite outside linebackers in the free agent market this season, playing right into the Browns REAL need wheelhouse. While it's commonly thought that a team should always address it's weaknesses first, if you can step outside that box for a moment, you can see that making a pretty good position group a great one works, too.
With either Cruz or Wallace opposite Gordan, how could a defense EVER play safeties close in? And a note on Mike Wallace: He's labelled a burner, but he averages ELEVEN YARDS AFTER THE CATCH, so you need to know that he gets open short and quickly. Gordon is a true deep guy.
Of course, there are minusses above and beyond coughing up that top draft pick for Cruz, and these are similar to the deal with Wallace. Money. Cruz could rightfully demand even more than Wallace. Banner couldn't make this move without some assurance of signing him to a multi-year deal.
Aye, and there's the rub. Banner has this rep as a tough negotiator, and there's certainly a bid above which he won't go.
But here's a little context; a variable. The cap floor. Banner MUST spend most of his cap money now. Banner still won't (and shouldn't) overpay, but guys like Cruz and Wallace are exceptional, and one of them make more sense than two or three journeymen for this young team and in this market.
Something else has been bugging me. Most Browns' fans seem to need a therapist. I mean, talk about holding a grudge and shutting down your brain!
1: Derrick Anderson was semi-conscious and in pain, and heard most of the stadium cheering. Any one of us would have felt and said what he tweeted. It was disgusting and shameful.
Okay so he regressed and resumed throwing interceptions after 2007, then failed elsewhere too. Do you think he screwed up on purpose because he hated you?
Nobody is talking about bringing him here as a starter. It's hard to find a better Norv Turner backup. Get over it.
2: Art Modell DID lead the negotiations with the networks which flooded every NFL team with money through revenue sharing. He brought the NFL into the modern era and transformed it. Now you're even saying he didn't really do THAT!? This is rationalization on steroids--now you even lie to yourself.
The Indians got a new stadium and the city fathers gave Uncle Artie the finger. Urine leaked from the restrooms, cracks were forming in the stands. It was built on a landfill so grass wouldn't grow, and they used green paint. Methane percolated up through the sand when it rained.
Municipal stadium was a joke, and they treated Modell like dirt. I couldn't turn on the radio without hearing people talk about him like he was the re-incarnation of Adolf Hitler. Wouldn't YOU move?
He had money problems. Guess why. He gave away too much of his money. He saved the Cleveland Clinic, and every charity had him atop their rolodex.
You're like the family of a murder victim, treating every NFL Hall of Fame vote like a damn parole hearing. You embarrass me! He did the TV deal and revenue sharing and that's just the truth GET OVER IT.
Now it's on to Phil Savage, who had the temerity to analyze the Browns recently.
Savage paid a right tackle elite left tackle money and extended Derrick Anderson before he had to. So he sucked with money. But he did dig up a bunch of young free agent talent, which helped the Browns to a 10-6 record in 2007.
Then Anderson inexplicably regressed, Edward Scissorhands resumed dropping every fifth pass (higher percentage in the end-zone), K2 got hurt, Jamaal Lewis got old, and you decided that was all Savage's fault as well.
Outside Vendettaland, Oblivia, Savage is well-respected as a talent evaluator (if not a money manager) and you need to think with your brains for a change and yes--GET OVER IT.
Sorry I couldn't help it. Okay, I'm confiscating the word "mentor". Also, I remind you that being a wide reciever is NOT rocket science.
But I digress: The Giants and Victor Cruz are far apart on his new contract, and it's quite possible he'll get the first-round tender this season.
Cruz is actually more desirable than Mike Wallace, because he's more reliable. Wallace does drop some balls (though not nearly to epic Braylon Scissorhands levels). It would take the Browns' sixth overall draft pick to get him.
Tough one, I know. WR is NOT a position of need, as the local consensus says it is. Few of the pundits understand that playing wide reciever is not rocket science, Turner's system is simpler than the West Coast, and receiver's coaches don't get paid to just sit there.
Gordon and Benjamin were rookies last season, and every analysis of them must be taken with that huge grain of salt. Most are reluctant to project anything positive about them, but in most cases second-year players do I M P R O V E DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?
While I'm re-regressing into this, outside recievers get jammed. Slot recievers generally don't, because without a rare nickel cornerback, that would be suicidal.
Despite WR not being a need (except in the imaginations of many), a guy like Cruz would instantly render this among the top WR corps' in the NFL. If you substitute Cruz for Wallace in all the projections, it's pretty much the same thing, except without the drops.
There are some very good cornerbacks and elite outside linebackers in the free agent market this season, playing right into the Browns REAL need wheelhouse. While it's commonly thought that a team should always address it's weaknesses first, if you can step outside that box for a moment, you can see that making a pretty good position group a great one works, too.
With either Cruz or Wallace opposite Gordan, how could a defense EVER play safeties close in? And a note on Mike Wallace: He's labelled a burner, but he averages ELEVEN YARDS AFTER THE CATCH, so you need to know that he gets open short and quickly. Gordon is a true deep guy.
Of course, there are minusses above and beyond coughing up that top draft pick for Cruz, and these are similar to the deal with Wallace. Money. Cruz could rightfully demand even more than Wallace. Banner couldn't make this move without some assurance of signing him to a multi-year deal.
Aye, and there's the rub. Banner has this rep as a tough negotiator, and there's certainly a bid above which he won't go.
But here's a little context; a variable. The cap floor. Banner MUST spend most of his cap money now. Banner still won't (and shouldn't) overpay, but guys like Cruz and Wallace are exceptional, and one of them make more sense than two or three journeymen for this young team and in this market.
Something else has been bugging me. Most Browns' fans seem to need a therapist. I mean, talk about holding a grudge and shutting down your brain!
1: Derrick Anderson was semi-conscious and in pain, and heard most of the stadium cheering. Any one of us would have felt and said what he tweeted. It was disgusting and shameful.
Okay so he regressed and resumed throwing interceptions after 2007, then failed elsewhere too. Do you think he screwed up on purpose because he hated you?
Nobody is talking about bringing him here as a starter. It's hard to find a better Norv Turner backup. Get over it.
2: Art Modell DID lead the negotiations with the networks which flooded every NFL team with money through revenue sharing. He brought the NFL into the modern era and transformed it. Now you're even saying he didn't really do THAT!? This is rationalization on steroids--now you even lie to yourself.
The Indians got a new stadium and the city fathers gave Uncle Artie the finger. Urine leaked from the restrooms, cracks were forming in the stands. It was built on a landfill so grass wouldn't grow, and they used green paint. Methane percolated up through the sand when it rained.
Municipal stadium was a joke, and they treated Modell like dirt. I couldn't turn on the radio without hearing people talk about him like he was the re-incarnation of Adolf Hitler. Wouldn't YOU move?
He had money problems. Guess why. He gave away too much of his money. He saved the Cleveland Clinic, and every charity had him atop their rolodex.
You're like the family of a murder victim, treating every NFL Hall of Fame vote like a damn parole hearing. You embarrass me! He did the TV deal and revenue sharing and that's just the truth GET OVER IT.
Now it's on to Phil Savage, who had the temerity to analyze the Browns recently.
Savage paid a right tackle elite left tackle money and extended Derrick Anderson before he had to. So he sucked with money. But he did dig up a bunch of young free agent talent, which helped the Browns to a 10-6 record in 2007.
Then Anderson inexplicably regressed, Edward Scissorhands resumed dropping every fifth pass (higher percentage in the end-zone), K2 got hurt, Jamaal Lewis got old, and you decided that was all Savage's fault as well.
Outside Vendettaland, Oblivia, Savage is well-respected as a talent evaluator (if not a money manager) and you need to think with your brains for a change and yes--GET OVER IT.
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
Browns Free Agency and Self-Corrections
First, I need to correct some stuff from other writers who I respect a lot, but who aren't perfect:
1: Ben Watson is a solid in-line blocker, and Jordon Cameron in his third season probably will be too. Cameron is actually stronger, with better reach. Yes, he was a raw prospect coming out of college, but he's had time to develop the skills. A guy I have a lot of respect for said that he would never be a good blocker, and that's just plain nuts.
2: Hate to repeat myself, but you don't take the entirety of a player's second nfl season to label him. Greg Little was stuck on stone hands in the first 4-5 games, then caught everything thrown to him for the rest of the season. He has i m p r o v e d almost predictably.
While Braylon Edwards also looked great for one season and then reverted right back to Edward Scissorhands, Little is a serious man, and has probably put the drops behind him like 9 out of 10 recievers who go through this common pattern.
See the pattern? Some analysts don't bother to anticipate or even recognize the development of players through experience.
Jordon Cameron should be a solid or even superior in-line blocker in 2013, and Greg Little has already been a reliable wide reciever through ten games.
I found another analysis of the Browns by Pete on Sports Chat which was refreshingly intelligent and insightful...mostly.
He correctly did NOT list offensive guard as among the team's five needs. I'd list cornerback as the first and OLB as the second myself, but that's fine. Safety third check.
But number four is wide reciever again. He lists this as a "need", and then for about 80% of the paragraph talks about how Benjamin in the slot was a great pick, Jordon could be awesome in his second season...generalizing about Little in the way I mentioned earlier...
Then comes the "M"-word. "Mentor". Oh for crying out loud. Yes, playing wide reciever is far more complicated than playing quarterback, so young guys simply can't learn it without an old overpriced guy teaching them all the subtle nuances of it. And it can't be an ex-wide reciever who is a coach, or just a coach who has a brain, either. No, you have to have a mentor! And a reciever is a rookie for five years.
Then he lists tight end. I accept this on the surface, since Watson is aging, Cameron has been hurt, and Smith isn't a deep threat anymore. But this is the writer who said that Cameron had zero blocking ability, which is just plain dumb. He also more or less dismissed Smith, who is a very solid all-around tight end that any team would welcome; who would start for many teams.
But overall, the article was very good. I especially liked that in his overview, he correctly described the offensive line as very good, and the defensive line personnel all set to transition to the 3-4 without changes.
Now, some writers are correct in isolating each of the three guards who played last season. Greco was actually pretty good, but the two young guys ranked very low. That position could certainly stand an upgrade (to a more athletic player), but it's not a "need", because both ends and the middle protect the guards on this team.
By the way, one free agent guard is Mitchell Schwartze's older brother...
Self-Corrections:
In this 3-4 scheme, the defensive ends are "five techniques" and line up shaded to the outside of the offensive tackles. I said they lined shaded inside, and there's a world of difference, since the outside leverage makes them more responsible for the edge on runs, and they will attack inside less.
As I understand it so far, they tie up the tackles to prevent them from blocking the OLB edge-rushers, and to force a ball carrier to run wider (the inside backers and safety responsible for the cutback and faster lateral pursuit).
I can't find anything else I was wrong about, except maybe Frostee Rucker sort of. I guess in this scheme, the DE's need to be bigger/stronger in order to push the tackles backwards and pursue laterally without being pushed downfield, and Rucker has less mass and leverage than the other guys.
But I don't think I was really wrong, since the coaches probably just liked the other guys better and wanted to save his signing bonus. Call it a semi-correction.
Oh yeah! Dave Kolonich's recent OBR article about Alex Smith also gave me pause on Alex Smith. While I think Kolonich ignored the development-factor which had much to do with Smith's emergence, I can't argue with Harbaugh's attempts to replace him, or his injuries, and never forget his average arm/Turner's offense.
No first round pick, and no big money. Thanks Dave.
Dave also talks about Matt Moore as a possible challenger to Weeden, and I like that idea, since he would be pretty inexpensive. And no, that ship hasn't sailed. Moore kicked butt for his first season, and was expected to become an elite quarterback.
He did fall on his face, and I'm not clear on the details of that, but we saw a sustained flash of potential. Since then, he has been a backup, and has had plenty of time to practice and learn. He has a stronger arm than Smith, and just might be a huge sleeper in free agency.
Thanks Dave! Also thanks for anticipating the nitpickers who were poised to point out to you that Smith isn't a free agent yet, and pre-emptively calling them d-bags! Amen/hallelujia!
Ok that's 2.5 self corrections. That's pretty good, since I'm usually there half way through any article on the Browns.
1: Ben Watson is a solid in-line blocker, and Jordon Cameron in his third season probably will be too. Cameron is actually stronger, with better reach. Yes, he was a raw prospect coming out of college, but he's had time to develop the skills. A guy I have a lot of respect for said that he would never be a good blocker, and that's just plain nuts.
2: Hate to repeat myself, but you don't take the entirety of a player's second nfl season to label him. Greg Little was stuck on stone hands in the first 4-5 games, then caught everything thrown to him for the rest of the season. He has i m p r o v e d almost predictably.
While Braylon Edwards also looked great for one season and then reverted right back to Edward Scissorhands, Little is a serious man, and has probably put the drops behind him like 9 out of 10 recievers who go through this common pattern.
See the pattern? Some analysts don't bother to anticipate or even recognize the development of players through experience.
Jordon Cameron should be a solid or even superior in-line blocker in 2013, and Greg Little has already been a reliable wide reciever through ten games.
I found another analysis of the Browns by Pete on Sports Chat which was refreshingly intelligent and insightful...mostly.
He correctly did NOT list offensive guard as among the team's five needs. I'd list cornerback as the first and OLB as the second myself, but that's fine. Safety third check.
But number four is wide reciever again. He lists this as a "need", and then for about 80% of the paragraph talks about how Benjamin in the slot was a great pick, Jordon could be awesome in his second season...generalizing about Little in the way I mentioned earlier...
Then comes the "M"-word. "Mentor". Oh for crying out loud. Yes, playing wide reciever is far more complicated than playing quarterback, so young guys simply can't learn it without an old overpriced guy teaching them all the subtle nuances of it. And it can't be an ex-wide reciever who is a coach, or just a coach who has a brain, either. No, you have to have a mentor! And a reciever is a rookie for five years.
Then he lists tight end. I accept this on the surface, since Watson is aging, Cameron has been hurt, and Smith isn't a deep threat anymore. But this is the writer who said that Cameron had zero blocking ability, which is just plain dumb. He also more or less dismissed Smith, who is a very solid all-around tight end that any team would welcome; who would start for many teams.
But overall, the article was very good. I especially liked that in his overview, he correctly described the offensive line as very good, and the defensive line personnel all set to transition to the 3-4 without changes.
Now, some writers are correct in isolating each of the three guards who played last season. Greco was actually pretty good, but the two young guys ranked very low. That position could certainly stand an upgrade (to a more athletic player), but it's not a "need", because both ends and the middle protect the guards on this team.
By the way, one free agent guard is Mitchell Schwartze's older brother...
Self-Corrections:
In this 3-4 scheme, the defensive ends are "five techniques" and line up shaded to the outside of the offensive tackles. I said they lined shaded inside, and there's a world of difference, since the outside leverage makes them more responsible for the edge on runs, and they will attack inside less.
As I understand it so far, they tie up the tackles to prevent them from blocking the OLB edge-rushers, and to force a ball carrier to run wider (the inside backers and safety responsible for the cutback and faster lateral pursuit).
I can't find anything else I was wrong about, except maybe Frostee Rucker sort of. I guess in this scheme, the DE's need to be bigger/stronger in order to push the tackles backwards and pursue laterally without being pushed downfield, and Rucker has less mass and leverage than the other guys.
But I don't think I was really wrong, since the coaches probably just liked the other guys better and wanted to save his signing bonus. Call it a semi-correction.
Oh yeah! Dave Kolonich's recent OBR article about Alex Smith also gave me pause on Alex Smith. While I think Kolonich ignored the development-factor which had much to do with Smith's emergence, I can't argue with Harbaugh's attempts to replace him, or his injuries, and never forget his average arm/Turner's offense.
No first round pick, and no big money. Thanks Dave.
Dave also talks about Matt Moore as a possible challenger to Weeden, and I like that idea, since he would be pretty inexpensive. And no, that ship hasn't sailed. Moore kicked butt for his first season, and was expected to become an elite quarterback.
He did fall on his face, and I'm not clear on the details of that, but we saw a sustained flash of potential. Since then, he has been a backup, and has had plenty of time to practice and learn. He has a stronger arm than Smith, and just might be a huge sleeper in free agency.
Thanks Dave! Also thanks for anticipating the nitpickers who were poised to point out to you that Smith isn't a free agent yet, and pre-emptively calling them d-bags! Amen/hallelujia!
Ok that's 2.5 self corrections. That's pretty good, since I'm usually there half way through any article on the Browns.
Thursday, February 7, 2013
Frostee Rucker, Jarvis Jones, Paul Kruger, Keenan Lewis, Mike Wallace, and Exploiting Misery
First, Frostee Rucker wasn't released because he couldn't play DE in a 3-4. He needed to be about ten pounds heavier to be ideal, but had all the other tools.
I believe Horton and co. simply felt that they had other guys who fit better, and just didn't want to pay him that 2.25 million.
I'd like to thank a certain analyst for alerting me to Jarvis Jones, but I can't find him. Thanks to this article, I scoured the internet on information on this freak, and watched some tape of him. WOW.
Yes, he's relentless, but I was shocked by his speed. Running down backs and recievers from behind, exploding out of ninety degree turns, blitzing inside and outside. This dude is just awesome.
But he's the one with spinal stenosis. I wasn't able to get specs on his condition, but did research spinal stenosis in general. As most of us know, it's a congenital narrowing of the spinal canal which contains the nerve-bundle. There are two types. One is in the lumbar region, and the other at or near the neck area.
Per a couple interviews of surgeons, it does NOT make a player more susceptable to paralysis. Instead, it makes "stinger" symptoms worse.
Instead of numbness in one arm, for example, a guy with spinal stenosis can get it in both arms. Probably (this is me guessing), it also takes longer to heal, and happens more often to players with this condition.
There are clinics which actually specialize in the treatment of spinal stenosis, but I couldn't find out exactly what they did. I'm guessing that they treat the symptoms of more severe cases.
The Browns will have to consider him at #6, because he's a perfect 3-4 OLB. I'm sure the medical staff is all over him.
Joe Flacco is backing up his Brinks truck as I write this, and Ozzie Newsome will have to pay the man. It's possible that Paul Kruger will fall off that tree.
Kruger is a 2009 second round pick converted from defensive end to OLB. He was a raw, unpolished player at that time who projected to be either a 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB.
In reality, he's spent more time with his hand on the ground for the Ravens in their hybrid defense. He has a sweet combination of speed and size (over 260). He's become a very good 3-4 OLB with some upside remaining, and he's 27.
This is why I was rooting for the Ravens.
Mike Wallace may be the fastest reciever in the NFL, and is one veteran who would be welcome. He is still young, and a perfect fit for Turner's offense.
Unless he's changed his tune, however, he'll want to be the highest paid reciever in the NFL. Considering the bidding war, he might get that. We'll have to see how high Banner wants to bid, if Wallace would come here.
Keenan Lewis is a massively underrated Steeler's cornerback who could also shake loose in free agency. He would instantly elevate this secondary, starting opposite Joe Haden, and he could possibly even come at a reasonable price.
The Steeler's secondary ranked first last season, and Lewis was the most targetted cornerback. In fact, he was one of the most targetted corners in the league. That's why all the passes defensed. He's great against the run, and played the same coverage schemes the Browns will run here.
It would be great if he got more interceptions, but hey--last year was his first as a full-time starter. Put him on the jugs machine!
Oh yeah--the top two division rivals will have trouble re-signing some of their best players. I feel their pain, and am enjoying it immensely. I'm sure Joe Banner feels the same.
I believe Horton and co. simply felt that they had other guys who fit better, and just didn't want to pay him that 2.25 million.
I'd like to thank a certain analyst for alerting me to Jarvis Jones, but I can't find him. Thanks to this article, I scoured the internet on information on this freak, and watched some tape of him. WOW.
Yes, he's relentless, but I was shocked by his speed. Running down backs and recievers from behind, exploding out of ninety degree turns, blitzing inside and outside. This dude is just awesome.
But he's the one with spinal stenosis. I wasn't able to get specs on his condition, but did research spinal stenosis in general. As most of us know, it's a congenital narrowing of the spinal canal which contains the nerve-bundle. There are two types. One is in the lumbar region, and the other at or near the neck area.
Per a couple interviews of surgeons, it does NOT make a player more susceptable to paralysis. Instead, it makes "stinger" symptoms worse.
Instead of numbness in one arm, for example, a guy with spinal stenosis can get it in both arms. Probably (this is me guessing), it also takes longer to heal, and happens more often to players with this condition.
There are clinics which actually specialize in the treatment of spinal stenosis, but I couldn't find out exactly what they did. I'm guessing that they treat the symptoms of more severe cases.
The Browns will have to consider him at #6, because he's a perfect 3-4 OLB. I'm sure the medical staff is all over him.
Joe Flacco is backing up his Brinks truck as I write this, and Ozzie Newsome will have to pay the man. It's possible that Paul Kruger will fall off that tree.
Kruger is a 2009 second round pick converted from defensive end to OLB. He was a raw, unpolished player at that time who projected to be either a 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB.
In reality, he's spent more time with his hand on the ground for the Ravens in their hybrid defense. He has a sweet combination of speed and size (over 260). He's become a very good 3-4 OLB with some upside remaining, and he's 27.
This is why I was rooting for the Ravens.
Mike Wallace may be the fastest reciever in the NFL, and is one veteran who would be welcome. He is still young, and a perfect fit for Turner's offense.
Unless he's changed his tune, however, he'll want to be the highest paid reciever in the NFL. Considering the bidding war, he might get that. We'll have to see how high Banner wants to bid, if Wallace would come here.
Keenan Lewis is a massively underrated Steeler's cornerback who could also shake loose in free agency. He would instantly elevate this secondary, starting opposite Joe Haden, and he could possibly even come at a reasonable price.
The Steeler's secondary ranked first last season, and Lewis was the most targetted cornerback. In fact, he was one of the most targetted corners in the league. That's why all the passes defensed. He's great against the run, and played the same coverage schemes the Browns will run here.
It would be great if he got more interceptions, but hey--last year was his first as a full-time starter. Put him on the jugs machine!
Oh yeah--the top two division rivals will have trouble re-signing some of their best players. I feel their pain, and am enjoying it immensely. I'm sure Joe Banner feels the same.
Friday, February 1, 2013
Warmack? Oh, puh-leez!
More dumbassitude.
Look, whoever wrote that the Browns O-line failed to open holes for inside runs saw what they wanted to see. I can dig up any game and find at least two or three plays on which the Browns running back got stuffed between the tackles. I can do the same with the Ravens, or for that matter even the Vikings.
And on those plays, I can usually find a linebacker and at least one defensive back in on the tackle, because they were KEYING the inside run.
The Browns issue at guard was pulling and blocking on the perimeter for screens or outside runs! The Browns guards DO knock back defensive linemen and big linebackers well enough, but lack speed, ok?
Even if Norv Turner's system didn't usually include a lead blocker out of the backfield or wing, Warmack is the same kind of slow bulldozer the Browns already have!
Moreover, you want a guard instead of a cornerback, safety, or OLB? Really? guard with the sixth overall pick, let alone in the top half of the first round!??
Talent is the biggest factor in that pick, but going strictly by position, cornerback, safety, and OLB in that approximate order are the ideals.
Another goober said that Sheard, at 255, would have to lose weight to play 3-4 linebacker. If Sheard can't do that, it won't be because he weighs 255. The 3-4 is different DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Somebody else said we need a defensive end. The Browns have too many THREE-FOUR defensive ends on the current roster.
At this point, Dee Milliner looks like the best pick for this team, as none of the safeties can match him.
The Browns attack defense will put a premium on man coverage skills, way above zone. Man corners are harder to find, and Milliner is one of them. He's 6'1" so he can match up with the taller guys while Haden takes the others, and he can jam anybody.
Still, as usual I'd prefer a trade-down, but at this point it seems unlikely that anybody would find a must-have guy at 6 that they couldn't approximate later.
I like what Haslam said about not making a huge splash in free agency, and about "if the money is right". With the war-chest the Browns will have, they can plug several holes, ideally with younger guys who aren't past their primes and overrated. Guys who will hang around for a few seasons and not just play one season and retire.
In other words, I hope they don't sign anybody YOU GUYS want them to sign.
Chances are very good they can upgrade at safety and OLB (at least) there.
Wow look at this: EJ Manuel is the EIGHTH-ranked quarterback in the draft per NFLdraftscout.com! I don't get it. He was Senior Bowl MVP, while the other quarterbacks got destroyed.
Look, whoever wrote that the Browns O-line failed to open holes for inside runs saw what they wanted to see. I can dig up any game and find at least two or three plays on which the Browns running back got stuffed between the tackles. I can do the same with the Ravens, or for that matter even the Vikings.
And on those plays, I can usually find a linebacker and at least one defensive back in on the tackle, because they were KEYING the inside run.
The Browns issue at guard was pulling and blocking on the perimeter for screens or outside runs! The Browns guards DO knock back defensive linemen and big linebackers well enough, but lack speed, ok?
Even if Norv Turner's system didn't usually include a lead blocker out of the backfield or wing, Warmack is the same kind of slow bulldozer the Browns already have!
Moreover, you want a guard instead of a cornerback, safety, or OLB? Really? guard with the sixth overall pick, let alone in the top half of the first round!??
Talent is the biggest factor in that pick, but going strictly by position, cornerback, safety, and OLB in that approximate order are the ideals.
Another goober said that Sheard, at 255, would have to lose weight to play 3-4 linebacker. If Sheard can't do that, it won't be because he weighs 255. The 3-4 is different DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Somebody else said we need a defensive end. The Browns have too many THREE-FOUR defensive ends on the current roster.
At this point, Dee Milliner looks like the best pick for this team, as none of the safeties can match him.
The Browns attack defense will put a premium on man coverage skills, way above zone. Man corners are harder to find, and Milliner is one of them. He's 6'1" so he can match up with the taller guys while Haden takes the others, and he can jam anybody.
Still, as usual I'd prefer a trade-down, but at this point it seems unlikely that anybody would find a must-have guy at 6 that they couldn't approximate later.
I like what Haslam said about not making a huge splash in free agency, and about "if the money is right". With the war-chest the Browns will have, they can plug several holes, ideally with younger guys who aren't past their primes and overrated. Guys who will hang around for a few seasons and not just play one season and retire.
In other words, I hope they don't sign anybody YOU GUYS want them to sign.
Chances are very good they can upgrade at safety and OLB (at least) there.
Wow look at this: EJ Manuel is the EIGHTH-ranked quarterback in the draft per NFLdraftscout.com! I don't get it. He was Senior Bowl MVP, while the other quarterbacks got destroyed.
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