Sunday, February 19, 2012

I Almost Changed My Mind on GIII

...especially after a very thoughtful, persuasive (ie RARE) fan-post I read. This guy didn't need to remind me of the nature of the West Coast offense--not an ideal fit for spread QB RGIII. But he DID point out that Shurmer has been inflexible in it's application.

I remember when Chris Palmer drafted Tim Couch and made him a pocket passer...and ONLY a pocket passer, with NO roll-outs or shotguns EVER, to ease his transition, or make the most of his talents. I remember later when the Browns acquired Garcia, and again refused to let him roll out or use the shotgun.

But I haven't been able to watch more than 2-3 games last season, and am often driving a truck when I listen. Analysis is shallow.

Now, thanks to the great Terry Pluto, I know that the Browns actually threw 47.7% of it's passes out of the shotgun! This ranked 27th in the NFL. Sure, Shurmer prefers his QB under center, but the shotgun is integral to all passing offenses, including Shurmer's.

The Packers' offense used shotgun 66.6%, and the Eagles were 59.9%; this is Shurmer's mentor, Andy Reid, adapting to Micheal Vick. Carolina and Denver increased their shotguns to make better use of Tim Tebow and Cam Newton. Just how dumb do people think Pat Shurmer is?

Oh--I'm not sold on Shurmer yet. He WAS inflexible in his steadfast refusal to use the hurry-up until conditions mandated it. But the whole shotgun issue has been exhaggerated.

More shotgun last season probably would have helped McCoy, but there is more to it here in Cleveland. It's not as easy to run the ball out of the shotgun, in which the backs are actually in front of the quarterback at the snap. It was important to run the ball (between the tackles) to help out the inexperienced, injured offensive line. The backs often needed to hit the hole with a running start, ie taking the handoff as they passed the quarterback verticly.

It's much easier for a rookie guard to fire off the ball and hit somebody than to pick up a blitze or deal with a sneaky veteran passrusher while on his heels. When a defenive front sees a shotgun, it automaticly attacks and seeks penetration. It tips the offense's hand. With Hillis, dumpoffs could exploit this, but without him, this didn't work so well.

The return of Steinbach (which keeps sounding more likely), a now-seasoned right guard, and an upgrade at right tackle would make the shotgun more viable, for either McCoy or Griffin. Hillis, too, would help. Many of his biggest plays were actually on dump-offs, or catches in the flats. He's one of the best in the NFL at this.

In re RGIII, I'll go back to something I pointed out earlier: for an Olympic hurdler to take snaps from under center will not be difficult. He had some limitted experience with it--about ten percent of his snaps--and for him the physical part is nothing. One of his best assets is his ability to track recievers while running around.

Now, the poster who wrote this pretty insightful article also made some mistakes. It's true that the West Coast runs a lot of crosses and slants, and by design spreads the field laterally more than verticly, but it's not black-and-white. Aaron Rodgers generally throws intermediate passes, and some deep as well. So does Vick. So did McNabb.

Further, a strong arm is still an advantage on the shorter passes to the sidelines and underneath coverage, where low trajectories and quick deliveries get the ball to the reciever before the defender can react.

One otherwise very smart national article decried McCoy's inaccuracy, but she blew her credibility right there. McCoy was off the mark too often in '11, but sometimes the inexperienced recievers failed to get to the point in time, or got there too early (TIMING, remember?) (But then, as I've admitted, he wasn't very accurate on the run, either).

In 2010, when it was a sight adjustment, he was on the money every time.

Accuracy isn't why I like Griffin more than Colt. It's Grif's stronger arm, which threatens the whole field. It's also the fact that defenses will be terrified by Griffin's speed and can't attack him in the backfield the way they attack McCoy. This would help the linemen and the running backs.

Most defenses would have to assign a safety or linebacker/safety hybrid to "spy" Griffin and mirror him, which they don't have to do with Colt.

The West Coast is indeed complex, and Colt now has most of a season under his belt in it. If they drafted Griffin, it wouldn't suprprise me if McCoy remains the starter in game one (and does well). (Making many posters declare Griffin a "bust" immediately).

Intellectually, Griffin will master this offense quickly. He will be "book smart". What would be difficult for him, as with any quarterback, would be overcoming the deceptions that pro defenses will use on him to disguise coverages, set traps, and fool him into seeing what they want him to see. Make no mistake, they messed with Colt in '11, big-time.

It's harder for a QB to get street-wise in the West Coast, when the ball is supposed to be in the air before the reciever makes his break.

Mayock did mention that Griffin didn't throw with anticipation, which is a red flag for the West Coast. But am I the only one who read the 'BECAUSE HE DIDN'T HAVE TO" part? Anyone as mentally disciplined as Griffin so obviously is can force himself to throw to a spot and trust his reciever to do the right thing, and that's the long and short of this.

I would actually hope that McCoy would be the starter, and do well. Let RG look over Colt's shoulder; Colt the other short accurate guy.

I'd be a better GM than most posters, because most posters want instant gratification. I would trade up for Griffin thinking about 2013 and 2014, and the Superbowl rather than a short-term almost-playoff run. What if I and a lot of other people including Mayock, Brandt, Miller, and Gannon are right about Colt, and he does well in his second season in the West Coast? A wasted draft pick, you think?

No! Then McCoy is either the best backup in the NFL, or at least a second round draft pick in a trade!

What if I get Garcon from Indi as the new number one and now have Little as the number two? What if I re-sign Hillis (and he stays healthy)? Are those two things and a good right tackle out of range because I surrendered my highest EXTRA draft pick? I got the cap room, and the oldest of the free agent prospects is 26 years old. You really think #22 is a make-or-break pick that we can't afford?

Would you rather have Kendall Wright, the little burner from Auburn, more than the ready-to-plug-in outside Garcon? How many recievers and right tackles do we need? 4? 7? God I'd HATE to be next to a lot of you in a foxhole! Might shoot you myself! "WE'RE ALL GONNA--" BANG!

Thanks Terry Pluto for preventing me from changing my mind. I hope they trade up for RGIII.

But Tom's will be done. Amen.

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