Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Free Agency and the Free Market

First, to dispense with some more idiocy and false premises:

1: Mohammud Massequoi couldn't have dropped more than two passes in 2011, and was productive in his limitted playing time. He gets open and he has good hands. When he didn't play, the offense was worse. He is a decent number two. His concussions are a concern, and the Browns could do better, but it was Little who had the drops--and ran incorrect routes. I see what is there, and not what I want to see.
He was drafted in the Mangini regime alongside Brian Robiskie. Doesn't matter. He played well.

2: Mitchell still exists and has a chance to emerge at WR in his third NFL season.

3: Norwood was a really nice, sure-handed slot reciever last season, and there is no urgent need to replace him. Further, Josh Cribbs caught over 40 passes and can play the slot too. The Browns need a number one. Not a slot guy. This is baby-out-with-the bathwater stuff. Think clearly.

4: Little improved markedly late in his rookie season. It's not accurate to say he can't be a number one simply because he's a couple tenths of a second slower than Green in the 40. He has yet to approach his potential.

The Browns need ONE reciever with deep speed.

Blackmon overmatched his level of competition and is probably being over-hyped. He should not go in the top five, according to many of the scouts I've listened to.

There's no need to draft a wide reciever high this season anyway, as the free agent market is being flooded with wide recievers this season.

There are only 32 teams in the NFL, and not all of them are looking for wide recievers. Teams on the cusp of Superbowl contention will be more open to signing the older vets who might get them over the top. Heckert and the Browns are building for the season after next and thereafter, so if you're over 28 at the oldest, you need not apply.

Not that they'll be beating the door down to play for the Cleveland Browns anyway, mind you.

Vincent jackson (29) is really the premiere guy here, but there are several others who will dilute the salary demands. It's not just the teams who will be fighting over their services, but the players themselves will be pressured: If they're too greedy, another player will sign and they'll have fewer suitors. Once the first two or three sign, they and their agents will start getting nervous.

For them, it's not just the other free agents. It's also the wide recievers coming up in the draft--with the new rookie salary cap. They will be cheaper than any of these free agents, and with a lot less mileage on them.

Don't be surprised if Heckert plays it cool, and lets people think he might draft Blackmon at four.

For the 4-12 Cleveland Browns, Vincent Jackson and Dwayne Bowe are not realistic targets. Nor is Bowe a true deep threat. Little might be him this season anyway. Brandon Lloyd is 31. Stevie Johnson is a talented bone-head; another Chad Ochosinco. No thanks...but hopefully somebody else signs him and takes themselves out of the market.

I read that the Stoolers will re-sign Mike Wallace no matter what. I also read that they're 20 million over the cap. Heckert has a shot. He can make an offer. If the Stoolers beat it, it will force them to dump more salary, some of which he might scoop up for depth or hold-the-fort guys. If they don't...oh wow....Wallace a Brown. Pinch me.

Then there's Colston.

But the guys the Browns have the best shot at, and who could fill their need most affordably and for the long term, are:

Pierre Garcon, Colts. One analyst said he dropped too many passes, but that's not what I get from the others. In fact, he sounds pretty sure-handed. His stats suffered in a Manningless season, while Manningham kicked butt in the Superbowl, so he's sort of the red-headed stepchild here.

But Garcon is bigger and more physical than Manningham, with similar speed. He is an instant number one in this offense, making Little the number two. With Massequoi and hopefully Mitchell also here, the Browns could take WR off their board.

Then there's Mario Manningham. I don't care about his weak production last season. He proved himself in 2010 with over a thousand yards. The Giants had two other excellent recievers, so when he was injured he came back as part of a rotation.

He is a pretty small guy, and you hate to make him cross the field a lot, as he would in a West Coast offense, but he's a clutch performer who burns. Unfortunately for Garcon and fortunately for Heckert, Manningham will be the hotter commodity. Not every team needs an outside guy, Manningham is a little more explosive and reliable, and vertical passing teams are less concerned about size than speed.

Plus, most fans are pretty ignorant, so they'd buy tickets to see the awesome Manningham than they would to see that bum Garcon.

But the smartest move would be to sign Randy Moss or Terrell Owens, don't you think?

I kid.

Do that, re-sign Hillis, and now on offense the big thing is a right tackle.

No NOT KALIL! LEFT tackles make a lot more money, and are more athletic than right tackles, many of whom are tall guards with long arms. You don't burn a top ten draft pick on a RIGHT tackle. You don't draft another Joe Thomas and make him play right tackle. Shut up. Just shut up.

I was gone for awhile but I'm back now.

There are also some good free agent defensive ends, and Ernie Accorsie made a great point recently: You start your defense with the line, and a strong pass rush. That takes much of the heat off the back seven while you build it. They don't need to cover as long, and runs get re-routed ar blown up in the backfield.

I personally haven't given up on Benard, who was a defensive end--not a linebacker--in college.

Last "preseason" the coaches weren't allowed to talk to the players, and Benard pumped himself up to over 270 lbs. He was ineffective, and then had his accident.

Jauron has told him that he doesn't need to be that big; he's not being expected to engage the tackle. Speed is the thing. Benard should show up at 260 or less, which is fine for the weakside DE, which is what the Browns need. Then let's see what he does.

Can't count on it, though.

I wish they could sign Mario Williams, but I doubt they have a realistic shot.

Cliff Avril is a sack machine (might not be so great against the run--as this unreliable analyst suggests) but 11 sacks and 6 forced fumbles? 26 years old? Probably priced too high, though.

There aren't that many of these guys, though; it's a seller's market. Lower down, there is good depth to be had on the strong side, however: Micheal Bennett. Solid strong side DE to spell Sheard and maybe be a rush tackle.

There are cornerbacks, as well, including emerging young guys like the Jags' William Middleton, who started due to injury last season and did really well. He's ranked as the eighth best on the list I've got, meaning the Browns have a reasonable shot at him. Tom and I kind of favor young, EMERGING talent, see? Once they're already big stars, they get expensive, see? Masters of the obvious don't make good GM's.

There are no stud right tackles here. Geathers could be one, but has chronic back issues. There's a chance this drives his price down enough that Tom would be dumb not to scoop him up, but I doubt it. Three other guys are pretty decent, but not really special, and might not be better than one guy already on the roster who played guard last season.

Erin Henderson is a weakside linebacker for the VIKINGS, and Childress might help Tom steal him. He's not great, but pretty good, with upside remaining.

Wesley Woodyard of the Broncos is another young guy who gets no play because of the studs in front of him, and is another realistic weakside linebacker target.

Rather than spending their entire 20 million on two players to make childish impatient fans happy, ALL of the above (with Avril a longshot) are doable by THIS team in this market before the draft.

The wide reciever is a difference maker. The rest are very solid upgrades, the oldest of which is 26. If these guys were signed before the draft, the probable needs would shrink to right tackle, right DE, and...

Well they might also try for Ryan or Kolb. Kolb? Yes. He flopped, but it might not be permanent. They said they'd bring someone in to COMPETE with McCoy, remember?

PS Rich Gannon, at least, has seen enough of Ryan to predict that he'll be a top-notch QB.

If not, what about RG III? I mean, if you've upgraded wr, cb, weakside lb, and you've got Hillis back...?

I saw a recent pretend draft run by Rams fans. They had WASHINGTON trading their number six, their second rounder this season, and their second next season so they could take RGIII.

That's the most realistic one I've seen. The value chart is a rule of thumb. I read one column in which the guy wrote that both fof the Browns first rounders would come up 20 points short. Out of 2,600. So the Rams would refuse? Over that? We got an extra 6th or 7th lying around somwhere, don't we? So why did this writer think the Browns 2013 first rounder needed to be included?

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