On NFL Radio, a caller from Cleveland asked Buzzkill Bill Polian what he thought the Browns should do this offseason. I was hoping Bill had done some more homework, or at least was in a better mood.
But when he said "The first thing you have to do is look at the team with clear eyes", I knew what was coming:
1: Myles Garrett is the only "difference-maker" on the roster, except for Peppers, who Bill was told was playing free safety because SS "Derrick Kenard" could line up the defense better.
2: Nassib is a good backup. Bill never heard of Ogbah. He mentioned Coley and the other (nameless) DTs with a grunt.
3: The right guard can't play. They need to replace the likewise nameless right tackle. Also the nameless middle linebacker with a veteran who knows what he's doing.
4: Josh Gordon is not a difference maker, but might be a good number two. Corey Who?
5: Sashi Brown and DePodesta are amateur frauds, and "metrics" doesn't work and GET OFF MY LAWN!
I don't care what this guy accomplished. He's the most biased, subjective, intransigent blockhead I've ever heard from. How dare he talk about looking at anything through "clear eyes"!
Oh, he gave Peppers, Tretter, and Bitonio their props, at least. Peppers and Garrett were the only Sashi Brown picks he gave any credit at all.
A big part of this is that it's obvious to anybody with my training that Buzzkill is talking out his ass without having done even superficial research. He just hates analytics (or whatchacallit) and all the fruits of that tree are just poisonous just cuz!
Buzzkill hammered "veteran leadership" over and over again. For a lot of these guys, this means minimum four years experience. It's certainly helpful, but:
1: Bill didn't even know that the middle linebacker he wants replaced is Pro Bowler Joe Schobert, who won his job partly because he could call the defenses...
2: ...or that he is the field general. "Kenard" (Kindred) only influenced the seconday.
3: Both enter their third seasons in the same system. They'd have to teach it to this "veteran leader" brought in to replace them.
4: Kindred was absolutely a "difference-maker" until he got injured. Tackles for losses, fumbles caused, hurries, sacks...to all of which Buzzkill is oblivious.
5: Buzzkill Bill might be the only guy in the NFL who isn't terrified by Josh Gordon, and very nervous about Njoku in year two with a competant quarterback.
6: Bill was obviously not even aware that Zietler (a veteran leader) is the right guard he implied "can't play".
Yeah I left that out. Buzzkill said "can't play" in reference to most of the roster and every position group. He ignored tight end entirely. He called Duke Johnson a "nice complementary player".
He said that if the Browns draft a new quarterback high, then they need to "get rid of" Kizer, possibly for a 4th round pick. Then he goes on to tell everybody that it's been "proven over and over again" that 4th round picks are worthless.
This clown just spews out crap like that!!! I got washed under by the waves of bullshit there waitaminnit (grabbing a snorkel here)...
First, why dump Kizer? Because Sashi Brown drafted him, period. Gdammit Bill Polian HIMSELF was extolling DeShone Kizer's upside heading into the 2017 draft! HE said he was raw and would take time to develop! Now he thinks the Browns should just DUMP him!?
Second, a LOT of stud players (and Hall of Famers) come from the fourth round. Especially running backs, guards, safeties, cornerbacks, and wide receivers. Whenever you hear Buzzkill Bill say that something has been "proven", your bullshit meter should trigger an alarm. He just makes this bullshit up!
The ripples are already spreading out from what Polian plopped in the terlet:
Some idiot mock drafter called the Browns 2017 defense "second string" already! Critical thinking isn't that hard! Why do I feel like I'm the last...
Nevermind: I just looked for sanity and found this article by Nick Snook. Nick gives the 2017 Browns rookie class a B+ (highest in the AFC North).
This assessment of the Browns needs by Marc Sessler didn't tick me off too much. "Game-changer in secondary, a big-play wide receiver, and a running back" (and naturally a quarterback).
Marc was smart enough (or was on a word-count) not to bash Gordon or Coleman. Nobody got interceptions check. It's sad that because of Hue Jackson, Isaiah Crowell will probably go somewhere else and rack up 1500 all-purpose yards cheap, but that's what we're left with, and Sessler is right.
He was also right to blame Hue Jackson for not getting the most out of his offense in 2017. How refreshing.
Todd Haley sounds disturbingly like Hue Jackson when he was hired here: He says his only offensive philosophy is to make the most of the players he has to work with.
I bought that from Hue Jackson and his legion of backers in the punditry, but Hue turned out to be another Chris Palmer.
However, I do believe Haley.
Unlike Hue, Haley has several pelts on his wall, including Kurt Warner's Rams (the Greatest Show on Turf). He's succeeded everywhere he's been, with varied talent pools.
This summary of Haley's press conference was instructive.
I hadn't known that his father had been a scout after his playing carreer had ended, or that Todd started out in that area...or even that he was highly respected as a talent evaluator.
Naturally, he's being "PC" in re quarterbacks, but he put his priorities up front: NFL arm, leadership, toughness. Not one word about size.
When asked about Mayfield, he instantly referred to his shortest quarterback, Warner. The guys who can do it just find a way to do it.
I can't put Haley in the Mayfield camp off this (he's pretty slick), but can tell you for sure that he'll be taking him seriously.
This is my own opinion: Drew Brees and Russell Wilson are elite quarterbacks, and each is as short or shorter than Mayfield. Give me some elbow room here, and Rodgers and Warner are less than two inches taller. Case Keenum is the same height.
If you draw a hard line on height, you are an idiot. That's not where you draw any hard lines at all.
If a guy can't make every throw, you can draw that line. If he can't process quickly, check. If he gets hurt too much, ok. If he can't hit the broad side of a barn, draw that line (except for Josh Allen I mean). If he's not a fighter or a leader, ok draw that line.
But if he passes every single one of all those other tests, and you reject him for a BIGGER guy, just because he is bigger, you need a brain transplant.
Screw the Conference and offense he played in. Screw the odds. Have the balls to see the exception when he stands in front of you.
Most of these GMs will take Rosen, Darnold, or even (inexplicably) Kizer Allen even though they KNOW Mayfield is better than they are.
I haven't quite worked out why yet, because to me it's just plain irrational (like Buzzkill Bill), but I'll get back to you after I do more research.
Speaking of "frauds", I credit Polian for hiring Marv Levy and Tony Dungy, and for scooping Jim Kelly up from the USFL and drafting Peyton Manning first overall. I just can't call that genius, or even "different". I can tell you for sure that Bill is a very articulate master of the obvious, and lucky.
I can safely predict that Buzzkill Bill likes every quarterback who is bigger than Mayfield more than Mayfield, thinks Hue Fisher is the next Bill Belichick (victimized by the disasterous "metrics" experiment engineered by Sashi Brown who thinks baseball is football)...
Ok maybe he was smart once. He's a Chuck Shumer now. I'm getting a little sick now. It's like kicking a puppy. I feel sorry for the conceited overrated crank.
But he just won't shut up!
As is often the case, Pat McNanoman is wrong. He lists wide receiver as the Browns top need.
He's not as wrong as he usually is, however, so he's got that goin' for him:
Gordon has already proven himself in spades, but is on the last year of his contract, and could fall off the wagon. (I doubt it, but nobody can guarantee it).
It's absolutely rediculous to give up on Corey Coleman already. You can throw out his rookie season, because his Auburn offense was ultra-simple, and he had never even learned 90% of the route tree.
Whether you comprehend the fact that the quarterback has a thing or two to do with a given receiver's production or not, I can tell you that Coleman showed predictable improvement in his second season.
He was usually open, but was overlooked or missed. That inexcusable drop vs the Steelers aside, he usually showed pretty good hands on the rare occasions when the ball came down in his zip code.
Coleman will be better yet in his third season. Even McNanoman will be able to see this with at least a journeyman veteran quarterback (with decent accuracy) throwing the ball around in 2018.
But yeah: Two broken hands in two seasons is concerning.
Rashard Higgins came back from the grave to show some promise, but he was never expected to be more than a possession guy, and remains "iffy" (I never want to shovel dirt on still-living young players).
If there are sleepers at wide receiver, I don't see them.
Unlike Hue Fisher, Todd Haley will consider using DeValve and Njoku at the same time in 22 and 12 sets which take wide receivers off the field (there is only one real WR in a 22 and two in a 12).
Pat doesn't understand that, or the fact that Duke Johnson will probably be in the slot more than in the backfield. A real analyst has to include Duke Johnson in the wide receiver formula. So far, I'm the only guy on the planet who bothers.
So yes, the Browns need a couple more wide receivers...just not five or six jeez...
They DO NOT need more slot receivers!!! They need only outside receivers.
Try to comprehend this (and tell Pat): Njoku, DeValve, Johnson, and Coleman can all do the slot stuff. I love Jarvis Landry and a couple other guys, but they're slot receivers who will cost a fortune, and might even do more harm than good.
Why does Pat McNanoman want to keep Duke and Seth off the field? I guarantee you, Todd Haley won't see the sense in that!
The bottom line is that the Browns could use two taller, fast outside wide receivers who are not washed up or overpriced.
Terelle Pryor could be one of them. NFL consensus on him is that he's a failed experiment, as he slid nearly off the Redskins' depth chart. But WE remember what he did here!
TP will be dirt cheap, and a no-brainer veteran signing (who can be a wildcat/emergency quarterback). Dorsey can get more promising big guys on days two and three in the draft.
One of these could be Allen Lazard, who came on strong (was unstoppable) in the later Senior Bowl practices, and who every quarterback talked up.
Lazard isn't a speed demon, so his Senior Bowl performance won't shoot him up the draft boards that much. He probably won't impress people with his vertical jump or 40 or three-cone etc at the combine, and could still be there atop the third round or even lower.
He's not the only one. There are skinny guys who need to get more physical, guys like Coleman who are projects, etc.
Lazard, however, would make an immediate 2018 impact in the red zone. He has tight end length (moreso than DeValve) and WR moves. He also runs well with the ball in his hands.
I need to point a few things out to Pat McNanoman here:
1: Modern NFL rosters tend to include ten or more defensive backs, and six or fewer wide recievers.
2: Two tight end formations are becoming more common, along with Duke Johnson (or for that matter Laveon Belle or Barkley) lining up in the slot.
3: Corey Coleman can play (well) outside, but his potential from the slot is astronomical. (Ideally a Pryor and/or Lazard type can get him inside more).
4: Brien Boddy-Calhoun has the nickel covered, but McCourty is aging and should be phasing into more safety stuff. The Browns might just need to upgrade BOTH outside cornerback positions, because Jamar Taylor is probably a gmf if he doesn't take a pay-cut after his poor performance in 2017.
5: THE QUARTERBACK M A T T E R S DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?
The Browns need a couple outside wide receivers, and twice as many defensive backs. Wide receiver is obviously not the Browns biggest need.
But Pat couldn't stop at just screwing that up--he just had to say "face it. The Browns need help nearly everywhere".
I'm so sick of this! It's PC ignorance! They might not even need a free safety, and don't need anybody in the front seven except another edge-rusher or two.
I've just showed you how Mr Skyisfalling drasticly overstated the need at wide receiver...wait til I get to tight end and offensive line.
I want to hear these clowns define "everywhere". Dammit I hereby confiscate "everywhere" from Pat McNanoman. It will be returned to him when he can use it responsibly!
The Browns need a couple outside wide receivers for depth and insurance.
I HAVE SPOKEN.
I was going to continue my series setting the record straight, but this just came up. My new favorite writer, Randy Gurzi, wants you to know that PFF concurs with Randy and me that Baker Mayfield is the best quarterback in this draft by a significant margin.
Randy and I feel we're in Bizzarro World when Draft Mockers are projecting Josh Allen at first overall, and treating Mayfield like day old leftovers.
A lot of "football guys" (not including Dorsey or McGloughan) will point to the SEC and Air Raid stuff (along with Mayfield's height). And then some will make fun of analytics.
As Randy points out, Mayfield was the best quarterback under pressure, still rating triple digits. This is as a passer, and doesn't include running yards.
Check out Randy's article for more specs, like Mayfield earned their highest overall grades in the last two years, three of the highest in the last six, etc.
Johnny Manziel seems to be the popular comparison for Baker Mayfield, but Kurt Warner, who won a Superbowl under Todd Haley (greatest show on turf), works better.
Warner was around 15/8ths inches taller (oh no!), but Mayfield has a stronger arm and is a dual threat. I have to compare these two because Warner is the only guy I could find with that kind of accuracy.
No I take that back. Aaron Rodgers actually works better. He is 1.5 inches taller, but otherwise matches Mayfield like a clone...
Except for personalities, anyway....if Warner or Rodgers were 1.5 inches shorter, would you want them today?
Ok well what about Brees and Wilson? Wilson isn't as accurate, but is more athletic (and is two inches shorter). Brees is actually very similar to Mayfield (except slightly shorter).
None of these guys are the "fiery", emotional kind of guys that Mayfield is. I don't know if that means anything, but have to stipulate that he is different is all. Emotionally, he's more like Brady.
Martin McConnell has listed several running back options for the Browns. Naturally Barkley is on top, and Guice is second. Martin thinks Guice won't make it out of the first round, and I can't disagree.
If the Browns don't draft Barkley in the top 4-6, they could well be looking at Martin's list from number three on down.
Kudos to Martin for filtering out little shrimps and listing potential workhorses. He gets that the Browns already have Duke Johnson and Dayes.
Now one more time, I have to respond to the analytics-bashers who have talked themselves into thinking that it failed here:
Tretter, Zeitler, McCourty, Boddy-Calhoun, Kindred, Garrett, Peppers, Ogunjobi, Brantley, Ogbah, Shon Coleman, Corey Coleman, Drango, Njoku, DeValve, Burgess, Dayes, and several sleepers you haven't noticed yet (like cornerbacks Wilson and Jordan).
Analytics ignored those who wanted them to trade Josh Gordon for a bag of Doritos, keep Joe Haden at any price no matter what...it got Joel Bitonio paid long-term, and (unfortunately due to the Head Coach they were stuck with) to treat Crowell as they have.
And TRUST ME here: No fknng WAY analytics wanted DeShone Kizer, even in the second round!!! I guarantee you, that was all Hue Jackson!
What you people call "analytics" has not been discredited just because Sashi Brown was fired to make room for John Dorsey. The team Brown built (along with the cap space and draft picks Dorsey inherits from him) is pretty damn good.
...well except for quarterback and WR depth...and cornerbacks and...
Shut up! The massive cap room and surplus high draft picks were part of the fkng plan as well!!!
And they KNEW Cousins would kick loose, along with two Minnesota quarterbacks, and guys like McCarron.
DePodesta knew that a bunch of veteran corners would shake loose in 2018, and that this quarterback class would be really good and really deep (ditto cornerback, running back, and edge-rusher).
If you are falling for this anti-analytical propaganda, you are a fool, and I will prove it:
Three years from now, see how the players I listed are doing, along with whatever becomes of this year's fourth overall pick, and the Eagles 2019 second round pick.
In my opinion, Mayfield and Barkley are the obvious top two picks. I have daydreams about Keenum, but I'll settle for McCarron or McCown as the bridge guy, because these salaries are out of hand.
Josh McCown could actually steal this show in 2018! Until he gets injured, he can WIN! Baker Mayfield is not a "project", either. His learning speed is outlandish, and his "processing speed" (as far as it can be proven in his college offense) is off the charts.
DeShone Kizer can't be (reasonably) judged by his rookie season, so he should be second in line to the new veteran starter (at least until he falls on his face again).
If it's Mayfield, McCown works. Mayfield learns very fast, and is who he is. I still think Kizer has a shot in year two (especially if he has McCown in his ear), and he's durable.
...He's at LEAST Josh Allen, right?
Anyway I'll be advising John to ignore anything Hue says and just draft Mayfield and Barkley and settle for Saint McCown as the bridge guy if neccessary.
Hopefully, they will fix the glitch which gives me all those "could not be delivered" messages soon.
First, I'll answer the question "How much would Ebineezer Laveon Belle cost in free agency?": TOO much next!
Ok first a primer:
Gregg Williams runs a FOUR-THREE defense ok? The defensive line in general, and defensive ends in particular, are the primary passrushers...not the outside linebackers ok?
Williams' ideal defense, when he has the people to run it, includes a safety who does a bunch of linebacker stuff, and when he has that guy (it was Derrick Kindred last season), he tends to blitze more often than anybody else.
With Gregg Williams, there's some bleedover into the front seven from the secondary.
The linebackers are there to be linebackers, if you can understand that. Linebackers tackle people and cover people first, and getting sacks is a nice bonus.
In general, Williams blitzes everybody (and blitzes a lot), but seems to like sending the fast little guys more than the linebackers. He is not upset when his linebackers don't get a bunch of sacks ok?
Another point I haven't belabored for awhile is the fact that in today's NFL, some type of nickel defense is the real base defense for all teams, since they have to run it (or a dime) on two out of three downs.
Williams runs every front in the book in these situations, but when he has Peppers and Kindred both available, he'll go to a dime in situations where most other teams play nickel.
That makes the front seven a front five.
Got all that?
Ok! The linebackers are fine if you are sentient. In only his second NFL season, MLB Joe Schobert made it to the Pro Bowl due to Shazier's injury (by the way if you don't root for him to recover because he's a Steeler you need therapy).
Schobert is a better athlete than he looks like on paper. He's very smart and has great instincts. He'll only get better going forward, especially at setting up the defense presnap (he's the defensive "quarterback"...already!)
Oh yeah see Gregg Williams delegates a LOT of authority to his "field general". Most defensive coordinators won't do that. But Schobert is expected to set everybody up and call stuff on the field.
This makes Williams' defenses more adaptable than other defenses, provided he has a smart enough guy to do that. I myself am kinda shocked that Schobert skipped all those grades and became that guy in season two.
Kirksey is obviously really good.
Jamie Collins is a freak.
Burgess started a bunch of games as an undrafted Sashi Brown rookie, and did a great job overall (could start for some teams). Prior to that, Special Teams stud Tank Carder (IR) had challenged Schobert at MLB, and if healthy can back him up in 2018.
As a unit, these guys were much better vs the run than they were in coverage. I can't afford PFF insider stats, so I can't give you numbers...
I do know that Schobert rarely matched up, but just sorta backed up a little and hoped somebody would come his way so he could blast him or pick him up with a head start (slants/crosses, of course).
Kirksey might have been below average; ditto Burgess. I'd be surprised if Collins didn't do well, but it's possible...he should match up with any tight end in the NFL.
Overall, this is a very solid crew of real linebackers, for those of us who comprehend what real linebackers do.
The defensive line is just like that. PFF was extremely impressed with rookie Myles Garrett when healthy (and dinged but still playing). I have zero doubt that Joe Thomas helped him out a lot, but this guy came to the NFL already pretty refined.
Rodney Ogbahfield was moved to the strong side (played where Garrett is now last season) and in reality (axe PFF) did a great overall job in his own second season.
Ogbah is excellent vs the run. His passrush numbers went down somewhat, but were still respectable. Ogbah can't do everything Garrett can do, but it's rediculous to even think about replacing him. He's entering his third season--give him a freaking chance, ok?
Carl Nassib has not turned into the passrusher I expected he would, but is a good player overall, with upside just like Ogbah.
Dorsey will try to add at least one edge-rusher this offseason. He/they can be situational (and perhaps cheap). He/they don't neccessarily have to be good vs the run (like the starters Ogbah and Garrett are).
Anybody who says the Browns need a defensive tackle is mentally impaired. Ogunjobi and Brantley showed great promise. Both are one-gap penetrators who can also two-gap who I guess the clueless Sashi Brown just accidentally lucked out on.
I'm not as big a fan of Danny Shelton as most of you are, because I expect him to break down physically unless he loses a lot of weight. And even now, that extra weight saps his endurance, quickness, speed, etc., and it will only get worse as he ages.
Some idiot said the Browns need a defensive tackle next to Danny Shelton...my God these people are allowed to vote!
Don't count Jamie Meder (IR) out here either, because he does what Shelton does in the Williams defense, and I saw Gregg use him on the right side too. Meder is short, light, and slow, but somehow just does the job anyway, all the time. Williams clearly noticed.
I'm leaving guys out here, like linebacker Dominique Alexander, who is pretty damn good, by the way:
Now, what about nickel-dime?
Well, you let Danny go suck oxygen for one thing.
Beyond that, it gets complex. Gregg might still want four down linemen in a "Nascar" package (and let one of the linebackers take a break as well).
Nassib has been part of this at defensive tackle, and Garrett can move inside too...and there's the problem: Gregg needs another edge-rusher (or two) to pull this off!
As it stands, why bother moving Garrett inside if the guy who replaces him at RDE is just a guy? And aside from Garrett, who on the current roster is a better edge-rusher than Ogbah?
As it stands, no "Nascar" 4-2 or 4-1 or whatever. So yes, the Browns need at least one more edge-rusher, and preferably two.
Now understand this: A "Nascar Package" is four quick/fast passrushers (usually all defensive ends). Teams with Garretts and Ogbahs can run this only if they have scary edge-rushers ready to come in and do their part outside.
John Dorsey will probably target edge-rushers this offseason, and bring in at least two or three. They can suck at everything except sacking quarterbacks from the edge, so he can probably get them cheap, and not worry about possibly having to cut one of them.
Overall for the defense, Dorsey will want (outside) cornerbacks first, edge-rushers second, free safeties third, and...well that's about it.
Not that he won't take best availables and try to upgrade positions of strength too. If you have a first round grade on a strong safety or linebacker and see him again in the third round, you have to consider drafting him.
Hey, I never said Kirksey was an All-Pro, or Schobert was great in coverage, or that Meder was on his way to the Hall of Fame. Good is good. Better is better.
The Browns real defensive needs aren't that many. To hear people talk, they need like 32 new starters. Nah!
Cornerback is the real need. Randy Gurzi wrote another great article outlining the real cornerback sitrep and listing the top two veteran free agent targets (Malcolm Butler and Trumaine Johnson.)
It's refreshing to read a writer who doesn't generalize excessively, as he points out that Boddy-Calhoun and McCourty scored in the 80s with PFF (so they don't need to replace everybody, get it?)
Randy correctly concludes that the more experienced, just as young, and 6'1" Johnson is the more desirable player for the Browns.
Johnson excelled in Gregg Williams' defense before having a mediocre season in 2017 in a new system. Knowing Williams, along with his system, should make him at least consider coming to the Browns.
Like almost everybody else, Randy thinks the Browns will be a tough sell for free agents this offseason. I think that's being overhyped based on their horrific win/loss record and reputation for instability.
Is or is not John Dorsey the new GM? What about Todd Haley and Gregg Williams? And (once again) any player who takes a few minutes to examine the current roster will see a whole bunch of young, emerging talent.
If they're not superstitious, they can't expect Dorsey not to find a quarterback or quarterbacks, or to draft poorly in general for the first time in his career.
Trumaine Johnson in particular will understand the impact which he himself would have on this defense.
Digging deeper, McCourty is getting up there in years, and a move to free safety (or a hybrid role) could be coming (and that's partly why I don't concider free safety the urgent need that most of you do).
But yeah, that means the Browns need at least two new cornerbacks.
Very few college cornerbacks excel as rookies. Those who manage to be above average play 100% press/man, and Williams doesn't run that.
That's why a veteran like Johnson needs to be one part of this. Dorsey can no doubt draft quality corners on day two, and even day three in this particular draft, but even the best of them won't be ready for primetime in 2018:
Unlike running back, cornerback might just be the second-hardest position to master in the NFL. This is partly why the prices for veteran corners has gone through the roof (Spotrack projects 9 and 11 mil/year for Johnson and Butler respectively).
...what's that about Joe Haden? Get your head out: He was not and is not as good as he used to be, and his salary exceeded his production by several miles. John Dorsey probably would have released him too. Great guy, but you can't get sentimental about this. Ask PFF. He was TOAST.
The Steelers signed Haden for chump-change, and no doubt Sashi Brown would have beaten that offer to keep him around, but Joe wasn't having that (Brown tried to get him to renegotiate and he refused).
I'm not saying Joe Haden is washed up yet (although that's possible with his injuries), but he's absolutely NOT elite anymore.
I know, look at that smile! Look at him rooting for the Cavs!
Grow up business is business get over it.
But I digress: Dorsey will probably add three cornerbacks (not counting undrafteds). It might be even more.
Brien Boddy-Calhoun is ideally the designated slot corner. He has played well outside, but just isn't big or physical enough to excel there.
McCourty is 30. He is not a long-term solution at cornerback, which (along with his twin brother in New England) makes me think he'll at least play more free safety here in 2018.
Jamar Taylor was a big disappointment after playing well in 2016, and has probably used up his second chances. He makes too much money and is likely outta here.
There may be some cornerback sleepers lurking on this roster like Micheal Jordan, who is entering his third season (and is 6'1" and fast). Gregg Williams knows more about these guys than any of us do, but we shouldn't dismiss them out of hand.
Jordan, in particular, will be competing to START in 2018.
As I've already said, free safety might be a need, but the three current candidates should include Nacua, Peppers, and in my opinion McCourty.
Nacua was undrafted, but aside from his level of competition I can't figure out why. He has all the traits and physical tools to play center field in the NFL.
Peppers is more of a projection, since FREE safety is the one back seven position he didn't play in college, and expecting him to excel there as a rookie was a tall, tall order.
But Peppers, too, has the physical tools to excel at free safety. It's more complicated with Peppers, however, since just like some quarterbacks can never process information fast enough to succeed in the NFL, some free safeties never manage to read opposing offenses correctly with any consistency.
Peppers is a really smart guy, however, and should absolutely not be counted out at that position in only his second season.
McCourty is an old vet, and would have a very short learning curve if he's moved to free safety. Nobody else on the planet seems to realize this, but Gregg Williams' third option should approximate that other McCourty in New England in short order if all else fails.
Strong safety is covered by Kindred, and maybe Peppers.
In fact, if Jabrill Peppers proves inadequate at free safety, Gregg Williams will tweak his defense to get both of these guys on the field at the same time as often as possible, because Kindred is just that good.
That's it for the REAL needs in the Browns secondary. Cornerback for sure, and free safety to MAKE sure...maybe.
Most likely, four players (excluding undrafted free agents) will be signed or drafted, including three cornerbacks.
I know that some of you think it should be six or seven or ten, but happily you're not in charge. A good GM might overstock a position group to intensify competition and have insurance, but won't sign or draft players he is pretty sure he'll have to cut.
Jason McCourty, Brien Boddy-Calhoun, Jabrill Peppers, and Derrick Kindred aren't going anywhere. The secondary should top off at 10-11 players.
Guys like Jordan and Nacua have high floors; even if they don't make the 2018 Pro Bowl, they can play special teams and are at least mediocre backups (with great upside).
Dorsey might just sign two veteran free agent cornerbacks here, given McCourty's possible transition to more free safetyish roles and Boddy-Calhoun's itty-bittyhood.
He'll draft the rest, knowing he might have to cut one or two.
You people don't get it: General Managers can't be cutting their draft picks a month after they drafted them. They have to consult with their coaches about guys like Jordan and Nacua, and be as efficient as they can.
Business is business. Draft picks and cap money are assets. They can't waste those assets. YOU people might think the Browns need three safeties and six cornerbacks, but that's not your job, and you won't get fired if you flush guys you drafted (including more than a couple day three picks) down the terlet.
Nor can a GM just win every bidding war no matter how much it costs. What if Sherlock Holmgren had won the bidding war for RG3?
...but Dorsey has a good shot at Trumaine Johnson in this market, provided somebody else isn't stupid enough to guarantee him like 14 mil/year...which could happen...Holmgren is retired right?
Matt Miller thinks the Browns need linebackers and defensive tackles, so I can't take him too seriously, but some of the rumors he's heard might be legit.
Per the mill, all four of the top draft picks are for sale, including one or four. Miller says that Dorsey is taking calls about the two picks, but won't trade both.
That makes sense.
For now, Sam Darnold looks like the frontrunner in the Quarterback Derby. Todd McShay makes a pretty strong case for him, as do a lot of other guys.
However, this quarterback class has been called by people who know what they're talking about the strongest in fifteen years.
Darnold and Rosen are the consensus top two. Rosen has the better chance not to fall on his face as a rookie, but Darnold is said to have the higher cieling, and looks a little like me when I was his age, so he's got that goin for him...
Some team will be after Rosen hot and heavy, and try to move up for him. This would be a mid-tier team who lost out on (or couldn't afford) the best veteran free agents or trade-bait, and are trying to win in 2018.
I really doubt that any of the Browns impressive talent evaluators are interested in Rosen, who is, by all accounts, a jerk (to put it mildly).
It's VERY EXTREMELY possible that they don't think Darnold is actually the best prospect, or that if he is, that he's significantly better than Mayfield, or even Luke Falk or White.
With all this ooing and ahhing over Josh Allen, HE is probably going to force his way into a tie with Darnold and Rosen.
For those of you who can count (at least using your fingers), that's THREE, ok?
As it stands, if John Dorsey is not all-in with Allen (gimme a break!) or Darnold, and is (I suspect) not a Rosen fan either, he should absolutely trade down!
New Browns consultant Scott McGloughan isn't shy about expressing his opinion that Baker Mayfield is the best quarterback in this draft (Hey! He must read this Blog!)
The hell with the "Manziel" crap. I've read Mayfield's in-depth bio, and it's not even close. The height thing is a different matter.
Hue Jackson did say he wants his quarterbacks to be 6'2" or taller, but pundits are finally starting to begin to suspect that possibly there could conceivably be exceptions.
Those who speak for Todd Haley are way off-base. Haley didn't draft his quarterbacks. He happened to have big tall ones. He never said anything about height. He might be perfectly fine with the right short guy!
Remember: When you a s s u m e, you make an ass of yourself.
McCloughan had a part of drafting Russell Wilson (third round) with the Seahawks. Tony Grossi said that Mayfield and Wilson were the same size. Actually, Mayfield is two inches taller.
It's very early, but it looks like Baker Mayfield's highest projection will be fourth, behind Darnold, Rosen, and (for strange reasons) Allen.
Laquon Barkley is the consensus-best overall player in this draft, but he's not a quarterback. He is unlikely to be drafted ahead of the Big Three (get it? "Big"? Oknevermind).
Much depends on the Colts at number two. If they trade down, Barkley should be safe. If they don't, they might draft him.
Well, this is wild guesses with too many variables now, but here's how I think some of this will shake out:
Kirk Cousins will not sign with the Browns, which is fine, since his salary will exceed his value (axe McGloughan). Foles is also unlikely, as the Eagles could well hold onto him, and that bidding war could get outta hand as well.
Dorsey's references to Chase Daniels wierd, but could be telling. Does he see this guy as another Keenum?
It could shake out that way! Unless the Vikings really are mentally impaired, Keenum stays right there.
As usual, the Browns get to sift through the leftovers.
I love Josh McCown. He would be the ideal bridge quarterback and mentor...but he'll get knocked out with injuries again, as he has every season for several seasons.
Still, given that and his age, he'd be dirt-cheap, and happy to come back to Cleveland...I started this paragraph out intending to dismiss McCown, but have accidentally talked myself into thinking he might be THE ideal "bridge" quarterback/"mentor" for the Browns!
Well maybe: Josh is a temporary patch; a two year (conditional) contract at most. He can start immediately, and play well and win, but he could go down in game one, or game five, or eight--who knows? All we know for sure is that he WILL go down at some point.
For John Dorsey and company, a Josh McCown would be perfect, and a bargain, but also a major risk.
Still with me here -snap-snap-?
First, DeShone Kizer will be much better in his second season, ok? Yes yes I get it: He could get a LOT better and still be below average.
Second, who is the rookie?
Well (ahem), if it's oh, I don't know...let's say Baker Mayfield, for example:
Well the two-time walk-on instastarter is said by his teammates to have "something like a photographic memory". He instantly made the veteran quarterback he was competing with look like the rookie from day one.
Mayfield's coaches beg to differ with this guy just being a "natural", as every one of them stressed his dedication and work ethic. (However I must insert here: His accuracy is natural/enate...not to mention amazing.)
Mayfield ran an air-raid system in the SEC, so he has two strikes against him even for us analytical guys, and that's a big reason why I think the "football guys" will shy away from him.
Air raid quarterbacks have historically failed, and SEC quarterbacks have historically failed, and Mayfield is both, AND short!
His exceptional memory and learning speed don't neccessarily equate to football intelligence as he goes from first grade to his master's thesis, either.
McCloughan and I are cool with this, even though he's a "football guy" and I'm an analyst. We agree that Mayfield is the next Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers (but we'll settle for Russell Wilson).
Baker Mayfield is the exception to ALL the rules. McGloughan cites his leadership, guts, and irrepressable confidence. PFF and I cite the perhaps unprecedented combination of his 72% completion percentage with his nearly ten yards per-attempt.
This amazing completion percentage is high for even SEC Air-Raid quarterbacks. But the yards per-attempt might just be the highest in the NCAA...and the NFL. These two stats combined might just be unprecedented...I wish PFF would spell that out for me.
The combination (and game-tapes) describe a quarterback who looks deep first, and McCloughan and I see a lot of vertical routes and receptions. Baker Mayfield is absolutely NOT a typical Air Raid or SEC quarterback.
So in conclusion, if John Dorsey agrees with McGloughan and me about Mayfield, and wants Barkley, he may be able to trade down (a little) and still get both.
OR just draft Mayfield and Barkley to make sure.
OR...well I gotta go.
I was all for the Browns paying a lot for Jarvis Landry before doing more research, and reading this article by Bryce Rossler.
Landry's production and reliability is not up for debate; I liked him a ton because I play weekly fantasy, and always consider drafting him.
However, Landry is a slot receiver who, per Bryce, has some physical limitations (not very fast or sudden).
The Browns are certain to draft a big workhorse running back in this draft (unless Todd Haley's presence and Crow's Hue-engineered lack of leverage keeps him here).
Haley will want Duke on the field as much as possible, and that would put him in the slot a lot, fulfilling a role very, very much like Landry's.
Team prospects aside, Landry is not likely to want to come uo here from Florida to shovel snow and scrape windshields. As it is, his contract demands sound pretty high, and Florida has no state income tax.
I still like the idea of Terrelle Pryor coming back (dirt cheap).
I know that he was dropped to fourth string or something with the Redskins, but there's no arguing with what he accomplished with the Browns in his first full season at wide receiver.
That wasn't Bernie Kosar throwing those passes to him, and he was the solo deep threat in 2016, so defenses paid attention. Pryor is also a deep threat outside receiver.
He's too tall (and built wrong) to ever be explosive or sudden out of his breaks, but he will have improved in his positioning and leverage. He's demonstrated some really good hands, and simply can't be ignored if he goes postal.
He's a bomber and cornerbacks are fighters. He'll often be "covered", but an accurate quarterback can get just inside that huge catch radius consistently.
With the Browns, Pryor made a large percentage of his catches on comebacks. That's partly by design (it's easy for him and for the quarterback), but more because Kessler and company couldn't or wouldn't throw deep to him on his intended route, and he was often coming back to bail his pigskin-hungry quarterback out. And trust me: They love him for it.
TP also offers that wildcat offense thing. That's been marginalized in the NFL of late, making 2018 a great time to bring it back. Pryor was not a great quarterback, but he was a quarterback.
Quarterback rumors are getting kind of crazy since Nick Foles won the Superbowl.
People are talking about who the Vikings will hire as their new offensive coordinator, and who might or might not want Foles (instead of Keenum).
?
Apparently, nothing Case Keenum did last season even registered with a lot of people. I don't know about the Vikings themselves, but if they think like most pundits, Keenum could indeed become available on the open market!
Jeff Risdon listed six free agent safeties that he feels could help the Browns, and some of them were really good (and potential bargains).
But Jeff is a ton more concerned than I am about Derrick Kindred's recovery from his injury, and has zero respect for Kai Nacua (the only true free safety on this roster to date).
The Browns don't need a strong safety, period. They need to see how Peppers and Nacua look at free safety, because if one of them doesn't make a big leap in 2018, they need a center fielder...or to move Jason McCourtey there.
The Browns are all set at strong safety, linebacker, and defensive tackle.
Linebacker is not a position of need. This is a Gregg Williams 4-3 defense, not a 3-4. Calling outside linebacker a position of need based exclusively on sack numbers is dumb.
The defensive linemen are the primary passrushers, and the defensive ENDS are the edge-rushers. Defensive backs (notably the slot corner or safety) actually blitze more than the linebackers do in this particular defense.
4-3 outside linebackers usually have similar skill sets to 3-4 inside linebackers. They cover, stop the run, and blitze in that order.
Overall on defense, free safety is a question mark, they need a couple cornerbacks, and another edge-rusher to help Garrett and Ogbah.
This concludes today's corrections.
