In an earlier post, I cited Big Ben's rookie season as an example of how a not-great quarterback can be "protected" as a starter by a strong team around him.
The point I was making was that Cody Kessler should be just fine with the supporting cast he will have, but I wouldn't be objective if I didn't apply this to Deshone Kizer as well.
The differences here are many. Big Ben had a great year going into his draft. Kizer had a bad year. Ben also had started quite a few more games. As I've explained, level of competition means less for quarterbacks than for anybody else, so don't start.
Big Ben's Steeler running game was led by Jerome Bettis, Duce Staley (for ten games), and Willie Parker, who came on strong in the playoffs.
This crew ran for over 2400 yards and 16 touchdowns at a 4 ypc clip. Their special teams were pretty special too. Their average starting field position was their 33 yard line.
Of course Dick LeBeau, Troy Polumalu, Chris Hope, James Farrior, Larry Foote, Joey Porter, James Harrison, and 19 interceptions certainly helped a lot.
Ben averaged less than 20 passes per game. His yards per-attempt were high, at over 8, and he completed over 66% (god I can see Black Cloud squirming and turning red here. He'll be accusing me of having an affair with the guy again pretty soon.)
But Ben as a rookie didn't often have to rally from behind, or get stuck in third and long situations. The majority of his passes were thrown against defenses that were paranoid about that damned infantry.
Now, let's compare the 2004 Steelers Superbowl Champs to the 2017 Browns. (Here we go with the smirks, head-shakes, and eye rolls well go screw yourselves dammit!)
This Browns offensive line is better. Yes it is, shut tf up SILENCE! Run-blocking, the Steelers line was great, but they weren't as good as this line will be in pass protection. Nobody could take Ben down, and he repeatedly made big plays with defenders dripping off him.
(Note: this was partly because that Ben wasn't great at reading coverage or throwing on time because he was...you know...a rookie, like Kessler was last season, but isn't anymore?)(sorry I got Terrets Syndrome).
The Steelers tight end, Truman, caught 9 passes. He was a blocker. The Steelers essentially ran a 6-man offensive line.
No comparison here. Truman might have been an awesome blocker, but the Browns have two lethal weapons and I'll settle for mediocre blocking ok? ...good no arguments for once!
The Steelers had Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward, and Antoine Randall-El as their top wide receivers (well they called the latter a "flanker"). None of them were deep threats. I repeat: None of them were deep threats. Aside from Willie Parker, the 2004 Superbowl champs were devoid of offensive "playmakers" DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Indeed, Hines Ward, like Joey Porter and James Harrison, was famous for his cheap shots (oh sorry I mean "blocking").
You see, this was a blunt-instrument offense. Burress was at that time the biggest wide receiver in the NFL. He didn't get open much, but it didn't matter. The 2004 Superbowl Champ offense was a brute force steamroller IS ANY OF THIS SINKING IN YET?
But I digress: There are too many variables to compare the wide receivers. Will Corey Coleman hurt himself getting out of bed this morning? Will Josh get reinstated? But I can roll with Britt and Louis:
Got to give those Steelers a slight edge here. It's tough, because Ward's dirty hits blocking was significant, and all three of those guys were very reliable. Britt is better than all of them overall, and he and Coleman can be "playmaygerzz", but Louis has proven nothing yet, and Coleman might be made of fine crystal.
(Note: Josh Gordon changes everything if King Dickhead reinstates him.)
The running backs are a wash yes they are gdammit give me a freaking break! 4.9 yards per carry! Crow did that vs eight man boxes! Yeah the Bus was amazing but oh crap I give up the Browns running backs are better than those Steeler running backs, even ignoring their superior receiving skills (except for Parker) and that's just a fact.
I saved this part. Read this carefully. Quarterback:
Big Ben undeniably (irrefutably Black Cloud deal wit it!) did a fine job as a rookie. (He wasn't as good in year two feel better?)
It's that damned knack for pulling off big plays when you think he's sacked, over and over again, that makes any OBJECTIVE analyst give even the rookie Big Ben the nod over any current Browns quarterback at this point in time.
...except Cody Kessler's rookie stats were similar to Ben's (much better TD/Int ratio but way fewer tds, lower yards per attempt, similar percentage and %under pressure long story) on a much weaker team ON A MUCH WEAKER TEAM DO YOU UNDERSTAND MARY KAY CABBOT?
Now, Mary Kay, like many sportswriters and all babies, is attracted to shiny things, like long passes that seem to take forever to come down, so for her, Kizer had to do that exactly once, in training camp, without a pass rush, to convince her that he has to start.
Well, not exactly, since she had made up her mind long before that but I digress.
I have to digress further here, except I'm circling back to the Browns quarterbacks (so it's more like a regression c?:
Deshone Kizer is not Big Ben. He is more of a project than Ben was as a rookie.
He may have an even better arm. He's definitely a LOT more athletic. He's probably smarter; he almost certainly has more potential.
But does he have what they call "heart"? He didn't prove that in college. Ben did. Ben reminds us, every time we see him complete an all-arm pass while being tackled. That stuff can't be taught. Most of you don't understand that. What makes Big Ben is all between his ears, and you might as well say he was born that way.
Mary Kay, check out Cody Kessler again. What a great smile aint he purty? I know I know he's a whole half inch shorter than Aaron Rodgers, only a couple taller than Brees/Sipe and about tied with Montana, but...
As a rookie, he PROVED SOMETHING, OK? In real games!
You people! All you can talk about is Hue Jackson benching Kessler for not going deep enough! So he slapped him down! He didn't kick him off the fkng team! Who tf saw Hue urinating on Kessler's grave?
Back to the future: I was comparing the rookie Big Ben to the Browns quarterbacks plural.
Well, in reality, Cody Kessler approximated Big Ben as a rookie in the most important categories, with less protection, a massively weaker (swinging door) defense, and less reliable receivers.
Knock-knock anybody home?
Back to my first digression (I think): Hue Jackson needs to win games, and will start the best quarterback, period. Deshone Kizer is unlikely to overtake Kessler by game one (if ever I repeat if ever). Mechanical flaws cannot be fixed under pressure.
Ditto Osweiler: Even in Denver, with a lot more help, he didn't match Kessler as a rookie, despite having been in the NFL and understudying Peyton Manning for awhile, and being coached by Gary Kubiak.
Mary Kay and company are fast-tracking Deshone Kizer. Hue Jackson is not. For that matter, niether is DePodesta or Brown. They drafted both quarterbacks. They can trade one of them later.
Mary Kay says they need to start Kizer asap to see what he's got and give him real-game reps. She's wrong. Kizer needs to drill and practice, and do thousands of training reps to render his mechanics automatic and reflexive before he's exposed to a real passrush and insideously diabolical alien presnap looks and post-snap coverage.
He is RAW, Mary Kay. Hue Jackson won't throw him in there until he he knows he won't lose it as soon as he's chasing rabbits (ok sorry more boxing slang: ref to Alice in Wonderland. You're chasing rabbits after somebody rings your bell and you can't "think" anymore. If you're well-trained, you run on autopilot and don't screw up. If you're not, you get wild and your opponent destroys you).
What the hell I'll stick with the boxing stuff:
The most natural boxers include Sugar Rays Robinson and Leonard, and Muhammud Ali. I know you'll hate this, but Johnny Manziel was like them. These guys broke all the rules by dropping their hands, leaning back, and relying on their ennate talent.
...but not before they were trained. Even the naturals needed to be conditioned to keep their feet under them, bend their knees, jab exactly like so, throw combos exactly so, keep your gloves here, all exactly so, before they got creative.
Anybody wanting to understand this better should search for Cassius Clay's amatuer videos. He won his Olympic Gold medal the old fashioned way.
Conversely, Joe Lewis and George Foreman were not "naturals" at all. They had great reach, power, and coordination, but required a lot of "work" before they got to the big leagues.
They were carefully nurtured, and protected, and brought along SLOWLY DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Ok still with me? I can't slap you awake from here so I hope so anyway:
Big Ben is Mohammud Ali. Deshone Kizer is Joe Lewis. (Oh shut up about the athletic stuff can't you even think?)
Kessler is a natural, and a well-trained one to boot, who in this offseason tuned himself up significantly. He'll never be a one-punch knockout guy, but he's quick and can pile up points on you, and well...check out how many kayos popgun Ali piled up DO YOU UNDERSTAND YET?
IF Deshone Kizer is Joe Lewis, he's an eventual starter...somewhere. I redundate that I see that happening in garbage time until after the break, in game 10.
Returning to the 2004 Superbowl Steelers vs the 2017 Cleveland Browns, Dick LeBeau's and Gregg Williams' schemes don't match up schematicly exactly, except for Polumalu.
Gregg Williams' "hybrid" player plays almost the exact same role as Polumalu did for the Steelers. Bet you didn't know that. Nobody else told you. Me smart. Them dumb.
But LeBeau still ran a 3-4, with Polumalu as a nominal strong safety, so I can sorta compare front sevens kinda, if I consider Peppers a linebacker:
Joey Porter was scary, but Myles Garrett is better. James Harrison wasn't as good as he would become then, but I'll still give him a slight edge over Ogbah as an edge-rusher.
Collins and Kirksey vs Farrior and Foote is a tough call. I gotta give the Browns a micro-edge here, because Collins is 250 lbs., he and Kirksey both excell in coverage, and in blitzing too.
I won't bother digging up the Steelers defensive line here. We got Shelton and Ogunjobi or Brantley, with a side of Nassib so I give the 2017 Browns the edge here too (final verdict: 2017 Browns front 7 vs 2004 Steelers front 7 Browns slightly better).
The secondaries are tougher to compare, since I used up Peppers on the front 7, and they still got Polumalu.
Ok but...I can't help this: There is no comparing the respective cornerbacks three deep. The 2017 Browns corners are all clearly superior.
Yes, the Steelers got the safeties, but not by all that much if I default McCourty to free.
DO YOU UNDERSTAND YET?
No, I'm not predicting a 2017 Browns Superbowl. I'm just telling you, this team does not lack talent, or coaching. All it lacks is experience, and a confirmed franchise quarterback.
The 2017 Browns resemble the 2004 Superbowl champs in another way, in case you managed to somehow ignore it: With a two-tight end offense, they will be just as BRUTAL under Hue Jackson.
Pucker up, pretty boys, and get those ambulances ready!
Poor Terry Pluto is still fretting about the wide receivers.
I'll try to put this a new way:
First, put the label-maker down and step away from it. Let's just call everybody who can catch passes downfield a "receiver", ok?
This gives us DeValve, Njoku, Britt, Johnson, Crowell, Coleman, and I'll stop there at SIX; five of which should be in every offensive huddle. (Note to Terry: You really need a quarterback and five offensive linemen, ok?)
Obviously, not all these guys can run the same patterns/fill the same tactical roles as what we call wide receiver. Only Britt and Coleman can really "burn" on deep outside routes. I was about to say that you don't want Crowell outside, but then I remembered the Head Coach, so...
But Duke and both tight ends can run every route from every position. This is all you need, Terry.
Ideally, you need at least one "coverage dictator" who can threaten the deep safety consistently to keep them from squeezing you underneath, but you can do without if you have to.
Fortunately Terry, Britt, Coleman, and Louis can all fill that role.
Next, what is the "slot"? That's the area between the left tackle and the X-receiver. Who can line up there? That's correct: A running back, tight end, or wide receiver.
You see? The slot is a location. Not a player. A quick little microbe can line up there, but so can a 250 lb tight end. I know you think a microbe is mandatory, but believe me, it's really not.
Ezweav took his early for-fun guess at the Browns upcoming depth chart. Most of it was really smart, but it wasn't perfect
EZ would personally like to see the very raw Deshone Kizer start game one for some reason, but forsees Kessler doing that, with Osweiler number two, which is probably right, because Hue wants to win.
I can't quibble with Crow/Duke/Vitale, but after that I don't know.
For one thing, EZ only carries four backs, including the fullback, and I think they might carry five. For another thing, he picks Dayes over George Atkinson III. EZ makes this a close call, with the tiebreaker being that Dayes was their draft pick.
It shouldn't be a close call, because Atkinson is a lot more talented.
Anyway, I think the Browns might well carry them both, because they'll run two-back offenses more than other teams.
He ranks the wide receivers wrong, with Coleman over Rodney Brittfield, and lists six of them.
EZ hasn't got the memo yet: Two tight ends and sometimes two backs. They probably carry five (or fewer) wide receivers.
Aw, now look at this three tight ends, and he's already put Njoku over DeValve. Why is everybody so eager to dismiss DeValve, and keep possibly your best receiver on the bench to boot?
EZ clearly forsees one back and one tight end all the way, regardless of how the talent stacks up. It's nice that he's giving Louis the slot, but just plain dumb when it's Louis instead of DeValve.
The Browns probably carry four tight ends. DeValve and Njoku are both among the best receivers, and you don't plant one of them on the bench if you have a brain.
EZ keeps eight offensive linemen, and (interestingly) picks Cam Erving to start at right tackle over Shon Coleman. Don't look at me for an argument. Cam sucked at center, but tackle is a whole different world, and he'll be given a fair shot.
But they might keep nine offensive linemen, including a real backup center (I'd guess Reiter).
My own count is nine offensive linemen, five backs, four tight ends, three quarterbacks and ummm...yeah four wide receivers (sorry Terry. But we can make it five if Josh Gordon is back ok?)
I love all the defensive linemen EZ keeps, but he keeps nine of them, and I don't think the Browns will keep that many.
I hope EZ is right and I'm wrong, because I like Holmes and Orchard both, a lot.
He picks Ogunjobi to start at RDE over Brantley, and I kinda think so too.
What's this six linebackers in a 4-2 base? Hmm...well yeah maybe. Linebackers are important special teams players. And I like all those guys. And we're only up to fifteen defenders on EZ's roster!
EZ gives Rodney Schobertfield his props, calling him the third linebacker after Collins and Kirksey. EZ recognizes that Joe never belonged outside in a 3-4, but should be fine anywhere in a 4-3 (or 4-2).
His sixth linebacker is undrafted rookie Kenneth Olugbode, a guy I've talked about. And he should be a terrific 'teamer.
EZ knocks the secondary out of the park. He has a good grasp of this scheme.
He calls Jabrill Peppers a "hybrid NB", and actually separates him from SS, where he thinks veteran free agent Calvin Pryor will play. EZ thinks Peppers will play a little deeper, and (I guess) an "under" free safety (or something...sorta...)
EZ has McCourty starting at free safety (big projection, but a smart one).
I have just one issue with EZ here: He keeps five corners, Campbell, Reynolds, and Kindred, and kicks UDFA Kai Nacua to the curb.
It's hard for me to knock the other listed roster contenders here, but I can tell you the safeties are heavy on strong and light on free, and free is critical.
McCourty's twin is a stud free safety in New England, and it seems like he'd be fine there, ok. But he's been banged up a lot. Reynolds is still a little shy of his prime, and certainly has the brains.
But those who project Kindred or Campbell to free safety need to change their meds.
Kai Nacua is a pure free safety with a long and consistent history as a playmaker. He has the size and the speed. I give him a chance to make the roster, because if they move him to the practice squad he'll probably get nabbed by somebody else.
Check out EZ's roster, though. Find me the tomato cans. (Sorry: Boxing slang: A tomato can is a boxer who isn't very good but can take a lot of punishment. They tend to bleed a lot).
No tomato cans here. Not anywhere, including at quarterback, as deep as you dig.
...well ok Osweiler has a lot to overcome, and yeah ok I'm giving a bunch of cherries a lot of premature credit yeah, but read their scouting reports ok? All my projections are reasonable, given typical patterns of player evolution, and with these coaches.
Quit smirking at me. Yeah I know every fan of every team is eternally optimistic yeah yeah. But why don't you see this:
For starters, which NFL team upgraded more through free agency this offseason than the Browns? Maybe somebody did, but the Browns are certainly among the top movers here.
Second, they just drafted three first rounders and a second. They've drafted what--twenty four? players in the last two seasons. Erving, Orchard, Crowell, Bitonio, Thomas, Kirksey, Haden, Shelton, Carder etc are still here, and (for once) they extended the core guys (except Crowell).
Despite this, perhaps two thirds of what will be this final roster will be first, second, or third year players.
Still with me -snap-snap-? Well, this means that over half this roster will be a LOT better than it was last season, and two thirds of it is a couple years away from it's peak.
This team is getting better, faster, than any other team in the NFL. This is a scientific fact.
No pom-poms here.
Ranked 31st by PFP? Axe me who I think the Browns are better than. Thank you:
Start with the Bengals. That's right. Their offensive line just took a major hit (notably our new right guard). Hue Jackson and four outstanding receivers made Dalton elite for one season. Now Green and Eiffert are what's left.
They did just get a hellacious running back, and already had two excellent ones, but in case nobody told you, those five huge guys in front of them matter too, ok?
And oh yeah: Their Head Coach is Marvin Lewis.
Next up: the Ravens. They're the real world version of the Browns. (You know, "a lot of holes to fill"?)
Harbaugh yeah ok, and Flacco too, but enough with the superstition: Compare the two teams position group by position group and even stud-for-stud and all you got is Flacco. I'll call your Flacco, and raise you a Garrett, Crowell, Collins, Kirksey, Njoku etc. dammit.
Buncha mystical crap...
Conversely, ok the Steelers got our number, along with the Pats, Falcons, and a bunch more teams yeah ok so stipulated.
The Steelers got even better over the offseason, as did the Pats, Raiders, etc.
Verily, the Browns have a still unresolved issue at quarterback, and a team this young is bound to make more mistakes, but...31st? My God these people are allowed to VOTE!
I'd have to rank the 2017 Browns in the bottom third due to inexperience and quarterback issues, but 31st?
I'd wildly guess the Browns should rank...nevermind just find out where they ranked the Ravens and Bengals and rank the Browns one rung above the highest, dammit.
I can't wait for this season.
Let's go back to Ben Roethsenberger's rookie season:
The Steelers had had mediocre quarterbacks for several seasons, and hadn't done much, despite having good overall talent.
They drafted Ben, and won a Superbowl.
For a lot of people, that proves that the quarterback is everything, and the team doesn't matter. But a knowlegable Steelers fan will laugh at that.
Ben was on a strict "pitch count" in every game, rarely throwing over 16 passes. He was a "game manager".
The Steelers offense steamrolled everybody (threw them under the Bus, as it were), and enjoyed an excellent defense.
Indeed, in the playoffs, Ben's wheels just about came off, and he was pretty bad. It was the running game and defense that won that Superbowl.
This is just to make the point: A talented, well-coached team can win a Superbowl with a questionable quarterback DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Number Fire's Jim Sannes wrote a great article on why Fantasy owners should check out parts and pieces of the Browns offense.
Jim is mainly talking bargain-hunting in the lower rounds here, because they're being underrated. Isaiah Crowell might be the top semi-sleeper here, but he mentions Rodney Brittfield, Rodney Kesslerfield, and Njoku:
"It's hard to find any component of this offense who isn't worth their price, because they're all so insanely cheap".
I've got a slow connection, so I might not have got that quote exactly right, but I know I got the word "insanely" right. Amen Jimbo!!!
PFF (Mark Chichester) writes another great article on Seth DeValve. I myself was oblivious to his YAC yards, but the rest of it should sound familiar to my readers. I just want to point out that DeValve did what Mark describes as a smaller, slower rookie buried under Gary Barnidge (who I wish great luck to btw wherever he plays).
NFL Spinzone (good ole Peter Smith) breaks down the Browns defensive line expertly, as usual.
I really hardly need to read Pete's articles, because he is almost as smart as my humble DaVinci-like self, and rarely makes a mistake. Still, I do, because he goes into film study and detailed stats, and still teaches me stuff I didn't know.
In general on these three articles, I need to make a few corrections:
1: Njoku is "the rage" now, but Seth DeValve is, in reality, ahead of him. Even once Njoku learns the ropes, he won't be significantly better. Of the two Browns 2017 tight ends, DeValve is the one fantasy bargain-hunters should look at first.
Everybody knows, you can't trust rookie tight ends.
DeValve isn't the rookie.
2: Danny Shelton will play almost exlusively between RIGHT guard and center in this defense.
But I love how Peter Smith goes deeper, in matching up Browns defensive linemen with Browns offensive linemen to illustrate how competition in practice will hone their respective skills.
Garrett vs Thomas what you kidding me? (Of course Joe gets those days off, so really this will mostly "hone" Joe's backups).
How about Ogbah vs the right tackle? Peter was discussing the defensive line in this article, but Ogbah (and Orchard, and Nassib, etc) will certainly separate the wheat from the chaff at right tackle.
Speaking of which, Thomas Moore quotes Myles Garrett in making a case for Shon Coleman as the frontrunner. This is another great article---where have all the dumbasses gone?
3: Unless Josh Gordon comes back, Kenny Britt is the only true X receiver on this roster---and he is a true X.
I'm annually amazed at how many otherwise really smart people don't get this:
The X is the "number one" receiver in any conventional offense. He needs to be tall and physical, because defenders try to mug him at the line of scrimmage, and then put a free safety on top of him.
The Steelers love confusing dumbass Browns fans, as the 5'10" Antonio Brown is maybe the best wide receiver in the NFL right now. But he disappeared when Big Ben missed time.
He would disappear as a Cleveland Brown, too. As much crap as I'll get from Black Cloud for saying this, Big Ben is an exceptional quarterback who makes the most of him.
For normal quarterbacks, a number one needs to be a big tall deep threat with a big catch radius who can haul in not exactly perfect deep passes with defensive backs glued to their spines. He has to be able to slow down without getting accidentally/on purpose knocked off-balance, or leap or dive, or turn and reach; he needs to be physical.
Remember Travis Benjamin (btw great guy good luck to him too)? Earlier coaches who should remain nameless put Travis at X for Hoyer, Campbell, McCown et al.
They threw long passes to him (commonly "back shoulder throws"), but they almost never worked, even when they were right on the money.
That's because he was too light and short. Most cornerbacks actually had a reach advantage on him, and despite his impressive speed, he rarely got any separation on vertical routes.
Don't get confused here:
1: Antonio Brown is not a deep threat. He does almost all his damage on short and intermediate routes, just like Jerry Rice did.
2: What do Randy Moss, Josh Gordon, Brandon Marshall, Megatron, Green, Jones, Britt, etc have in common?
...ok (sigh) they're tall and physical. An ordinary quarterback can trust them deep.
3: A true number one receiver MUST BE a reliable deep threat.
Now, that's not Corey Coleman, or (for that matter) Antonio Brown. Or Steve Smith.
But I digress: Hue Jackson makes the most of what he has. I paid attention when Al Saunders, when asked to compare Terrelle Pryor to Kenny Britt, said that Britt was more "physical".
Hue will run a two-tight end BASE offense, with DeValve and Njoku as primary tight ends, and Britt and Coleman *when fkng available* as wide receivers.
This maps out a really punishing, brutal offense, considering Hue's announced determination to run more in 2017.
Nobody else sees this yet. The two primary tight ends are "Y's" or (I'll take competant) in-line blockers, and H-backs, and can line up wide, and attack outside, and should be exceptional blocking in space.
Kenny Britt isn't an ideal number one, but is above average in that role (shut up that's just the truth). He also excels in YAC yards, and blocks extremely well too. If Gordon comes back...wow.
I found out (I'll try to find the guy to give him his props) that Isaiah Crowell averaged 5.9 ypc vs EIGHT MAN ("stacked") Fronts!!!
Ok do the math. C'mon man do I have to spell everything out?
Oh yeah quarterback. No franchise QB we're all gonna die good grief ok I give up.
I know I sound like a hyper-homer cheerleader here, but the dumbassitude is almost universally anti-Browns, and I have to take it where I find it.
First, I'm not offended by or worried about Gramps Hall not wanting to play for Cleveland. He's on his last legs, the Browns are not contenders in 2017, and he'd be a backup again anyway. I wouldn't want to come here if I were him either.
Get over it.
Now PFP again ranked the Browns 31st, and I want to thank them for this softball. I've included the link, because their analysis was actually reasonable (if shallow). This is another example of cognative disonance, because nothing in the article in any way supported their conclusion.
I'll try to help them out. It's just too stupid to pretend that Cody Kessler won't be as good as he was in 2016, but how 'bout them concussions?
Now we're talkin'! Who steps in for him? Well, Osweiler is the logical choice, but is he Denver Brock or Texans Brock? Even as Denver Brock, he was just kinda okay.
Everybody who pays attention knows that Kizer needs a lot of work, and could bust out anyway. So, if you figure Kessler goes down early, and assume the worst about his backup, you could put the Browns quarterbacks as a group in the bottom five.
(Don't start, Black Cloud. There are at least four teams with worse quarterback trios. Really more like seven or eight. I know there's a brain in there somewhere, BC...try to use it.)
Quarterback being the most important position, you can massively overestimate it's value, and talk yourself into ignoring this:
PFF expects the Browns to have the second best offensive line in the NFL. Check. USA Today ranks their secondary at 22. Ok. It should actually be better, but I'll take it.
Ok now you can put your excrement-colored glasses on for a look at the wide receivers. Assume Corey Coleman is made of fine china and will spend most of his time on bikes and in hot tubs (or in jail, which btw based on my info so far, I'd consider fair).
Britt will fall back from his carreer year last season, and just be you know, pretty good, but not that good. Ricardo Louis will be just a guy. Therefore, you tell yourself, the Browns will have the worst wide receivers in history (32nd).
See how helpful I am? See me embrace insanity?
Ok now let's check out the rest of this dumpster fire:
Tight end: Well, I'm done helping here, because Seth DeValve is a secret weapon who I was personally underrated until I did my research and checked my experts.
Everybody knows about Njoku, and gives him his props, but even the Pittsburgh writer who wrote the linked article gave DeValve a "meh" (sure hope his team does!).
...jeez yer killing me here, but I'll help you rationalize some more:
Assume that Hue Jackson will only use one tight end (that's right assume he is a dumbass). Well, Njoku is a rookie. Even the best rookie tight ends have fairly modest production, so we can rationalize Njoku to maybe 15.
But DeValve is pesky, and now a veteran, so you have to upgrade the duo to top ten as a position group.
What about running back? Well, Crow and Duke averaged 4.9 ypc and combined for more receptions than most wide receivers get. We're supposed to ignore the upgraded offensive line and Hue Jackson here, but I can't make myself that stupid, ok?
In fact, which running backs are better than Isaiah Crowell? Well ok I'll give you Zeke, Belle, David Johnson, and...oh what really Lynch and Peterson again? Now? Ah screw it ok but still we're talking a top 5 combo here at least gdammit jeez it's like pulling teeth to get 5.9 ypc before Zietler/Tretter it's props how far am I supposed to dumbassify myself here?)
So on offense you got top 5 running backs, top 10 tight ends, a top two offensive line, but crappy quarterbacks and wide receivers (which is bullcrap, but I'm trying to channel dumbass rationalizations ok?)
Therefore, the terrible quarterback and utter lack of wide receivers will prevent the tight ends (oh sorry tight end singular) from accomplishing anything whatsoever.
I mean who's the slot receiver?
God I'm going to have to wash my brain out with soap here...
Ok so stipulating a #22 secondary, how can we dis a defensive line including Ogbah, Garrett, and Shelton?
...I'm sorry I can't do this. Hue Jackson and Gregg Williams are the coordinators, they're going to penetrate and run the ball, I didn't even get to Kirksey and Collins, and you are an idiot if you rank the Browns 31st.
JC it's like the Browns are Donald Trump! What's next Haslam colluding with the Rooneys? 31st? How can any sentient being ok nevermind ohmmm...ohmmm....
Anyway I just vented in the men's room (not writing on the walls btw) and I'm back now:
Cliffnotes for any new readers: Two tight ends (almost mandatory with Rodney DeValvefield and Njoku). "22 personnel" (two backs, two tight ends, one wide receiver) ( easy option where both tight ends can play H-back, block in-line, line up in the slot or wide, and where both running backs can go to the slot, and one can line up wide--especially useful if you run short on wide receivers)...
4-2 base defense useful when the two linebackers are Kirksey and Collins, one of the "defensive backs" is Jabrill Peppers, Ogbah and Garrett are true edge-rushers, Danny Shelton gets to line up in a gap...
If you read this Blog, you know all this stuff.
If you play Fantasy Football, you should consider Crow and Johnson both in any ppr league (just not as your rb1). You should avoid Corey Coleman until he's almost free. You should take a flyer on Josh Gordon if you can.
If you're in one of the more enlightened leagues which give you points for individual defenders, Garrett might be overpriced, but Ogbah will not be, and is underrated. Taylor might be better than Haden. Between Kirksey and Collins, take the cheapest (but DO take one!!!).
DeValve will dilute Njoku; find other tight ends.
The Browns defense will be respectable, and create a lot more turnovers, so it's a super-cheap backup option if you can.
...ok I mean Gregg Williams' 2017 Browns defense with Garrett, Ogbah, Shelton, Collins, Kirksey, Taylor, Haden, and Peppers should be above average. Because the 2016 Browns defense was so hideous, you could exploit the Memorex Moron majority by nabbing them dirt-cheap.
Take the Browns as your backup defense, and use the dough you save on a quarterback or something.
The Browns 2017 special teams will be as good as any:
Contrary to popular hysterical belief, Parkey was and is an excellent kicker. Gonzales might be even better, but either way, we got that covered.
They just added Jabrill Peppers as a returner, and (while you were sleeping) a whole bunch of spare defensive backs, linebackers, and tight ends.
I'm impressed. Oh yeah "why?"
Well, if you're punting, you use exactly ZERO real offensive linemen. Everybody who is blocking is also covering, and you need real athletes. The return team is the same. The only way they can get to a punter in time is via speed, and once the ball is in the air, you have people attacking and trying to block in space.
If a hypthetical team were to hypotheticly carry four tight ends, five running backs, and one or two extra defensive backs on it's roster, it might just be better in coverage and blocking for returns. Honest! Even for the Browns!
Not that this has anything to do with the two-tight end or "22" package or base 4-2 defense or anything.
Yeah "zingg" again oknevermind
1: Myles Garrett's leg presses are meaningless in terms of his FOOT injury. He didn't show calf raises because he isn't doing them yet *Myles if you read this don't be a dumbass and start doing them just to show me dammit*
2: Terry, the fact that Cody Kessler was under pressure 47% of the time is irrelevant. The fact that he completed 80% of his passes under pressure is not. How can you get a guy who was "overwhelmed by the speed of the game" out of any part of this?
And pressure means more than four passrushers, not guys getting in your face. Kessler was overwhelmed at times when guys reached him too quickly, but so are most quarterbacks--let alone rookies.
He was blitzed a lot (mostly inside), and reacted well to those blitzes. I know you try to be objective. You missed.
3: Most NFL wide receivers hit their strides in their third seasons. Game experience is only marginally more important than practice reps, which is why this is almost as true for guys who've rarely seen the field as it is for established guys.
Running correct routes, along with all other skills, is a matter of repetition. These skills are as easily developed against one's own teammates as against other teams in real games.
There is similar contact and deception on the practice field. Defenders try just as hard. Quarterbacks and coaches call you all the same names when you screw up.
The Browns do not need another "veteran" wide receiver...unless his initials are Josh Gordon...who you think they should cut....
4: Especially not when they have both DeValve and Njoku, will probably carry four tight ends, will run a lot of two-tight end formations, put a running back in the slot a bunch, and will rarely have more than two actual wide receivers on the field.
Who should the vedderrunn wide receiver put on the bench? Britt or Coleman? (Oh yeah Coleman. He's not vedderruned enuff yedd). And does the geezer need to be any good at all?
5: Nate Orchard was a defensive end in college, not a 3-4 OLB.
6: A "Hue Jackson offense" has always depended on the nature of the talent he's had to work with. He has never had two passcatching tight ends. He does now. Why can't you figure this out?
McNanoman asked the AFC North Beat writers if Hue Jackson would be coaching the Bengals in 2018. They all said no. I just wonder why he asked that question.
He'd leave a team whose core is entering it's prime for an old team that's fading why? Jeez, Pat!
Another writer tried to figure out how well Njoku would do as a rookie. Gronk (47 catches) aside, several other really good ones averaged around 36-38 catches as rookies.
The writer was reasonable to exempt Gronk, because Tom Brady won't be here.
But I'll settle for Njoku catching 36 and DeValve 47, provided both average over 15 ypc.
A Pittsburgh writer predicted Browns vs Steelers in 2017. I can't argue with his obvious conclusions. He tried to be objective, but didn't bother with much research.
He wondered if Njoku would be the only viable receiver. I know if you've got Antonio Brown on your team, it's hard to get excited about anybody else, but that's still pretty bad.
No bigee. He was as gentle as he could be in predicting a Steelers' sweep. Black Cloud might disown me for this, but I've met a lot of pretty cool Steelers fans. And while I'm at it, I don't hate Tom Brady or the Patriots either.
I just tell them "We're sneaking up on you. Get it while you still can."
I don't tell Ravens or Bengals fans that. Guess why.
Sadly, I'm unable to ferret out any idiocy to nuke today (slow dumbassitude day). But I can still nitpick at the sentient writers here and there:
This article by Joel W Cade on the right tackle competition was almost perfect.
Joel expects Shon Coleman to win it, because Erving wasn't picked by this regime, was a (more expensive) first round pick, and because (Joel says) the Browns will have to make a decision on his fifth year option after this season.
If they pick up that option, they have to pay him based on where he was drafted, and that's pretty expensive.
But Joel (who seems like he may have played offensive line himself at some point) was fair to Erving. He points out that Erving was a top notch offensive tackle in college, and is much, much better suited to play that than guard or center.
Cam Erving, and Shon Coleman, however, played left tackle. Joel and everybody else seems to think that right and left tackle are the same.
That's a minor point in the long run, but LeCharles Bentley and many others point out that adjusting from one side to the other is a major challenge. The stance, footwork, steps etc. are all unnatural for the player. Both Erving and Coleman were making this transition last season.
Joel might be right about economic factors influencing this decision, unless Erving looks substantially better.
But Joel thinks that if Erving does lose this competition, he'll probably be traded for a future draft pick, and at any rate won't be retained.
There, he might be wrong, and he may also be overestimating the impacts of salaries, and who drafted who.
Paul DePodesta will be pointing out that if Erving earns the starting job and plays well in his third season, he'll have a year (or two) left on his rookie contract after this, his third season.
He will have redeemed himself from his failure at center, and become a valuable trade commodity. Coleman would have two years left on his own contract, and presumably be ready to step in.
As it stands, Cam Erving is a failed center making first round money. He's almost untradable at that price, and getting beat out by a third round pick pretty much ices that cake.
The Coaches have no dog in this fight. They're both young players, and they'll want the best one to start, period. Sashi Brown may technicly have the final say on the roster, but can't dictate who starts (not that he would anyway, Illuminati boy).
Now, Hue Jackson genuinely respects Brown, DePodesta, and their long-term strategy. They discuss these things, and (PR aside) are timing their big "move" into the playoffs for 2018, and for continued improvement and sustained success therafter.
Therefore, if it's a tie, ERVING could be the winner. And if Erving loses, he should be retained unless he is not, in fact, one of the four best offensive tackles on this roster.
Time to put your snorkels on:
Roderick Johnson is the nominal backup at left tackle, but he's a project. Shon Coleman...not Cam Erving......has worked at left tackle on Big Joe's (sensible) days off.
The loser of the right tackle competition will be the swing-tackle in 2017. Rod Johnson may not even be active in some games. He can be a fake tight end in some elephant run-packages, but is absolutely not ready for regular service in the NFL yet.
And by the way, Rod Johnson didn't "force" Cam Erving from left tackle to center in college. They had a big hole at center, and felt Johnson was ready to step in at left tackle. As Joel points out, Erving was a GOOD left tackle, and several teams were looking to draft him as a tackle.
If Shon Coleman does win the right tackle competition, Erving still has a chance to "show" something if either tackle misses time due to injury, so they might still get a draft pick for him (or just retain a stud player).
Now, nobody is talking about Josh Gordon, so I can bring him up again. He's up for re-instatement in September, and if King Dickhead doesn't let him back in, he probably can (and should) sue the bastard personally.
Gordon has been called a "drug addict" etc. over things the majority of us do a lot, including walking through a room where people are smoking pot, and having a few drinks (with teammates) on a plane after his season was over, and drinking too much water.
He had more serious issues in college yes, but he has been pillaried and persecuted ever since he was drafted. The only thing wrong with this guy is his off-the-field college stuff and just being a freaking normal freaking young freaking man gdammit!
Imagine pissing in a cup two or three times a week ok? How long before they caught YOU too soon after one freaking Miller Lite?
...but I digress: He should be back, and I severely doubt that Sashi Brown will just cut him with two years left on his obsolete contract.
Dumb (no offense Terry Pluto): Cutting him for political or emotional reasons is a non-starter with this crew. He's not disruptive or a wife-beater and his teammates like and support him. Care to survey the quarterbacks?
Dumber: Nobody would trade anything significant for him at this point. He's one strike away from extinction, he's not that cheap, all the rosters will be set by then (point in a lawsuit: the timing is punitive), he's not familiar with their schemes or language, and he's not in "football" shape.
Dumbest: Josh does not need to start from square one with the Browns. He knows the scheme and the language, and being stupid is NOT, in reality, among his faults (he's actually really smart).
Now listen carefully (I'll write this slow):
In fourteen games. In his second NFL season. With three (or four?) quarterbacks named Joe. With no running game. As the unmistakable number one (double cover this guy every time) receiver. He was the best wide receiver in the NFL, and broke a few NFL records doing it.
I guarantee you: the prospect of Gordon's return influenced the Browns' offseason strategy.
We aren't talking "potential" here, ok? Josh Gordon can't miss (unless he gets suspended again). And Terry wants to cut him?
Back to DePodesta (just think of me, really): cutting Josh Gordon might just be THE dumbest thing any team in any sport has done since we came down out of the trees.
Anyway, I'm just reminding you guys that rumors of Josh Gordon's demise are greatly exhaggerrated.
I'm in a rare mood so I'll keep going with this and it's implications:
Ok well by this time the two-tight end offense with DeValve and Njoku is set as the base offense. With one running back, this allows for two wide receivers. With two running backs, this means only one wide receiver.
Well, obviously adding Gordon blows the two-back all to hell, because (once he's back up to speed) Josh has to play. You're not going to keep a Corey Coleman on the bench, and even if Coleman is injured (yet again sigh), Rodney Brittfield as a number TWO? Hell yes--he's been a number one most of his carreer.
Now just think about this, ok? Remember Edwards and Winslow? They put Derrick Anderson in the Pro Bowl, remember?
Well, how about two Winslows, who can block, an Edwards on steroids, a taller/quicker/faster Antonio Brown (Coleman) all on the same field at the same time?
Yeah I'm optimistic about Coleman. Despite his physical advantages, comparing him to Antonio Brown isn't realistic, especially given the respective quarterbacks, and how heavily performance outweighs potential.
G, give Brown his props. And Big Ben too. Know thine enema.
Nevermind: Just imagine Gordon, Njoku, DeValve, and Coleman (or Britt) on the field at the same time, over 75% of the time. And remember: with Josh Gordon, who the quarterback was didn't even matter!!!
I've told you: those who default Coleman to number one over Britt are premature. Britt is being massively dissed here!
But the key here is Gordon: Josh Gordon is right there with Julio Jones, and better than AJ Green, and I'm underselling him here. No listen to me: he's dangerous everywhere. He can take short and intermediate crossers to the house as well as he can catch long bombs.
One safety has to stay deep every single time he's on the field, and move to intercept him every time. Even if Josh crosses underneath, that single high safety has to "stay on top" of him, even if a corner is right there with him.
Do you see it, my crickets? Assuming knowing that Hue Jackson will run a lot, with two tight ends who can block, how do you stop this Josh Gordon offense?
The simplest answer is, you can't. Don't default to this quarterback crap. Britt has been studly with possibly worse quarterbacks than the Browns have fielded, usually as an X receiver. Gordon's best-of-five quarterbacks was Brian Hoyer.
Whoever wins the right tackle fight, he'll be a really good run-blocker in any scheme, and have a tight end to chip on passes 63-plus % of the time on passes, and when you blitze inside (vs a top 5 inside offensive line) you're taking guys who should be on a tight end out of coverage...
Anyhow, if Josh Gordon is reinstated, I'll be revising my estimates for 2017, because I can't see how any defense in the NFL could hold it to under 20 points.
Ok (sigh) I think the Stoolers are just too tough and experienced to pass up in 2017, but the Ratbirds and Bungles could be had.
Sans Josh Gordon, still 6 wins easy.
And with all due respect to Terry Pluto, PFF and Pro Football outsiders are right and you are wrong: The Browns 2017 offensive line should be at least the second best in the NFL.
I think Terry is afflicted with Billoreillyitis.
I was leaning towards Coleman in the right tackle competition until I read Joel's article. Now, I call it a dead heat.
