What about Joe Schobert? Brian Wilson had some thoughts on that, and they were pretty good ones.
Mychal Kendricks is just too good not to play, in every situation, and in almost every set, against almost every offense.
Because Kendricks is "starting out" at middle linebacker, Brian and others infer that this is where he'll end up.
But Joe Schobert made the Pro Bowl in his second season, and his first as a starter at middle linebacker.
As I mentioned, PFF lists him 32nd among all linebackers, which is pretty high in a league which starts over 100 of them, and uses a bunch more.
Meanwhile, Christian Kirksey has been here awhile, but ranks 52nd at 59.6;
Schobert is 77.4; significantly higher. Going further, Joe was 81.6 vs the run, while Chris was 69.7. Schobert was 70.7 in coverage, while Kirksey was 53.3.
You've got to understand this about Gregg Williams: All those exotic defensive looks and personnel groupings he uses are less about matchups than they are about simply keeping his best players, regardless of position, on the field as often as possible.
The Browns best three linebackers are now Kendricks, Collins, and Schobert. What's more, while Kendricks is a veteran who could probably be Gregg's "Field General", Joe Schobert in only his second season did a savant-like job there.
Joe Schobert was drafted here for a 3-4 defense. He'd played outside in college, and was a good passrusher, so they tried him there.
I posted at the time that I felt this was dumb. Schobert could play inside or out in a 4-3, or inside in a 3-4, but not outside in a 3-4.
And I was right. When Schobert found out Gregg Williams had been hired, he started losing weight to get faster, because he knew he'd be getting his first shot ever at being a real linebacker.
The rest is history.
And now, in my opinion, Christian Kirksey is the "weak link" here that Mychal Kendricks will ultimately displace.
Kendricks can absolutely play WIL. He might even be a better MIKE than Schobert is, but why would Gregg Williams demote Schobert instead of Kirksey? Where's the biggest upgrade?
Some guys see that Kirksey was just extended for serious money, and assume that this means he has to start.
Wrong. The best players have to start. Schobert is still two seasons away from his second contract, and at the time Dorsey extended Kirksey, he couldn't have imagined in his wildest dreams landing Mychal Kendricks.
Kendricks is starting out at middle linebacker because in a Gregg Williams defense, that guy has to call the plays (remember? Gregg doesn't call plays. He has his middle linebacker make all those calls for him; it's part of what make his defenses unique).
Kendricks will certainly back that position up, and will need reps there, to get used to making those calls.
Brian Wilson wonders how Joe Schobert will handle his imminant demotion, but he's asking about the wrong guy.
Mychal Kendricks will probably be taking the magical mystery tour of every linebacker position throughout training camp and preseason. He will start somewhere, but also be a primary backup everywhere else.
This gets more complicated too, when you consider that Gregg Williams now has the secondary he wants, including two-deep safetybackers, and he won't be using three real linebackers as often.
I can't get started on that right now, but can remind you that Gregg first and foremost wants his best players on the field in every situation.
Just a few of those could include Garrett/Ogunjobi/Ogbah, and/or...nevermind, but I do see Jamie Collins with his hand in the dirt sometimes, and Peppers at linebacker...all sorts of stuff.
Joe Schobert should be part of this. Chris Kirksey...I don't think so. As I posted earlier, he's probably already on the block.
Now, on that Wilson link, there's a video of a couple guys I don't know talking about NFL team prospects in general.
One of these two guys was more negative about the Steelers than I am, and they went back and forth through the gamut of Ebineezer Bell, Big Ben the drama queen, and a bunch more Soap Opera garbage, but they did hit a few true notes:
The Steelers might well take a step back in 2018. If Antonio Brown misses time, defenses can zero in on Bell. Big Ben is a geezer. Their defense still has holes in it, and the team in general is old.
One guy cited the playoff loss to the "Jagwires", saying there was "no excuse for that", which was extremely ignorant, but still, they did lose, right?
But then they spoil it all by pointing to the Bengals and Ravens, and settling on the Ravens as the team that could take over the AFC North in 2018.
One guy mentioned the Browns: "Well they'll be better because they have to be better, but they won't contend by any means"---
Stop the tape:
In a previous post, I told you how the Browns and Steelers talent in 2018 is comparable, and the coaching might well favor the Browns.
Now, I'll compare the 2018 Browns to the perennially-overrated Ravens, who these two goobers agree could upset them:
Quarterback: Browns. Tyrod Taylor is better than Joe Flacco right now, and Baker Mayfield will eventually eclipse both of them.
Don't argue with me with Flacco's Superbowl season or highlight reels. He's tall, old, and dinged up. His knee might be fine, but his back issues won't go away (they never do), and PFF pegs him where he is; several rungs below Tyrod Taylor.
Running Back: HAAHAHAHA -gasp/weeze- cough-cough not even close.
Tight End: Nick Boyle and Maxx Williams are actually pretty good, and they can block in-line too. Hayden Hurst is underrated, and they got Vincent Mayle now too.
I still like Njoku/DeValve/Fells better, especially since Jarvis Landry will force Haley to run more spreads, and the quarterbacks will mitigate the need for in-line blocking (long story-I'll get around to it though).
I give the Browns tight ends the edge here.
Wide Receiver:
Give Ozzie his due: Micheal Crabtree is the real deal, Breshard Perriman is a quality receiver, and Willie Snead is a top-flight slot guy.
But compare that to Gordon, Landry, Coleman/Callaway etc., and remember Duke Johnson as part of this? The Browns have much better wide receivers than the Ravens, and notably absent from the Ravens roster is a gamebreaking X-receiver as well. It's not even close.
Offensive Line: The Ravens have an okay offensive line, but the Browns' is better.
Wow the perennially-overrated Ravens are laying an egg so far! Every single part of their offense is inferior to the Browns!
But surely, they'll catch up on defense, right?
Wrong: DE/Edge: I can simplify the biggest part of this by comparing the venerable Gramps Suggs to Myles Garrett. I predict that Garrett will be better than the immortal one in 2018, but maybe that's just me and my fixation with common sense.
I stipulate that Suggs will beat Garrett to the Hall of Fame, okay?
The Ravens unique defense makes other comparisons complicated, but Ogbah is better than Smith and Suggs' other backups, and the Browns are loaded with real defensive ends...basicly the Browns DE/Edge guys are superior.
Interior defensive line (again due to scheme differences I have to think extra-hard here):
I think Micheal Pierce at nose tackle is underrated, but talent-for-talent, and as well as I can adapt this to schemes, I still think Ogunjobe is the better player. It's probably close, but I think the Browns have the better interior defensive line too.
At linebacker, CJ Mosely is (per PFF) only a few slots worse than Joe Schobert...ok the Ravens linebackers do as well vs their Browns' counterparts as their alleged running backs did. Not even close.
The Ravens' secondary is actually pretty good, but (gee I'm sorry) they lose too. Eric Weddle might well be better than Randall, and Jimmy Smith is a great tall guy, but the Browns have them beat overall.
The Browns are more talented than the Ravens, from top to bottom. For that matter, the Ravens remain inferior to the Steelers and Bengals overall.
So why are these goobers brushing the Browns off like dandruff, and projecting the least talented team in the AFC North as the biggest threat to the Steelers?
The Cliff Notes answer is because they're Memorex Morons ("Mm's" for the rest of this article)
Mm's assume geezers will be just as good as they were last season, young players will not be any better, back issues and concussions are no more important than other injuries, that six or eight years later a player is just as good, regardless of how bad he sucked in between, and that a team (which I won't name here) which set a record of suckdom for two seasons can't possibly change the script regardless of Dorsey, Taylor, Haley, Randall, Kendricks, Gordon, Gaines, Ward, Carrie...
When John Dorsey was hired here, and said that his goal was to win the AFC North in 2018, I dismissed it as PR.
But since that time, he signed all these top-flight veteran free agents, and put his money where his mouth is.
He retained most of the embryos that Sashi Brown piled up for him, peddled other players for draft picks, and (in my opinion) did a good job with the draft picks he inheritted from Sashi Brown.
Give Dorsey credit for listening to his coaches, and for not "purging" the roster, as many GMs do, simply because those weren't his guys.
John Dorsey clearly fell into a bed of roses here. He immediately recognized the talent he inheritted, decided this was no longer a "rebuilding" team, and hammered the veteran free agent market hard.
Screw 0-16 and 1-31. If you think that, or the years preceding that mean a damn thing in 2018, you are irrational.
The 2018 Browns are now one of the most talented and best-coached teams in the NFL. They're a veteran team now, led by a Pro Bowl top-14 quarterback who is better than Dalton and Flacco.
And by the way, Tyrod Taylor never had a Josh Gordon ("we coulda had Sammy Watkins"). Don't count on him remaining so conservative with the weapons he has now.
Unlike the clowns on that video, I don't expect the Steelers to collapse in 2018.
But compared to the 2018 Browns, the Bengals and the perennially-overrated Ravens are in trouble. I repeat: the Browns should sweep both teams.
The 2018 Browns are more talented overall than the Steelers, too.
I'm not predicting that the 2018 Browns will win the AFC North in 2018. I'm just saying that if you think the Ravens might, and that the Browns have no shot, you are a dumbass.
I look foreward to Ward vs Brown, and Peppers/Kindred vs Bell. I want to see Big Ben shrug Suggs or Garrett off. I want to see the Steelers defense stop Chubb, Gordon, Landry, and Taylor.
...but it's "the Browns", right? Haley and Williams will screw it up again, right?
Un believable.
Thursday, June 7, 2018
Wednesday, June 6, 2018
PFF Stuff on Browns Players, Predictions, Sockholm Syndrome
I broke down and paid for PFF again, so I can dig up player rankings (from 2017).
Jamie Collins graded out very low, but then he didn't play much, and when he did, he was dinged.
At cornerback, TJ Carrie and Briean Boddy-Calhoun were neck-and neck, ranked 21st and 24th respectively (both a little over 84 overall and vs the pass).
But EJ Gaines was 13th at 86.6 (86.5 coverage, 66.3 vs run). i wonder where Denzel Ward will rank...
Mychal Kendricks ranked the highest of all Browns players at ninth among linebackers. 86 overall, 87 vs the run, 76.8 vs the pass, and 68 as a passrusher.
Joe Schobert ranked 32nd (77.4 overall, 81.6 vs run, 70.7 vs pass, and 48.6 passrushing).
Everybody thinks that John Dorsey flushed analytics down the terlet when he came here, but analytics sure seem to be influencing his decisions. Kendricks is better than Schobert, and Joe could be in trouble here.
Kirksey ranked 52nd overall (59.6 overall, 69.7 vs run, 53.3 vs pass, 52.2 blitzing). Kendricks will challenge him, as well. He beats these two players in every category, and a healthy Jamie Collins will too...not to mention Genard Avery.
I couldn't even find Josh Gordon, so I assume he just hasn't played enough games yet to be ranked.
Carlos Hyde? 50th among running backs. 50th. 51.5 overall, 76.7 running, 34.9 yes 34.9 catching, 28.2 in pass protection, 60 in run-blocking.
Meanwhile, Duke Johnson ranked 15th. 82.5 overall, 74.4 running, 90.1 receiving (wow), 57.1 in pass pro, 60 run-blocking.
Those who expect Carlos Hyde to keep Nick Chubb parked on the bench just don't get it. I have some renewed hope that they'll find a way to hold onto Duke, too.
As I mentioned, Rodney Kindredfield was 28th among safeties with 82.1 overall, 75.6 vs the run, 75.6 yes 75.6 in coverage, and 87.3 vs the run.
I couldn't even find Jabrill Peppers, but assume he ranked really low.
Jarvis Landry ranked 19th at 82. 83 receiving, and 67.5 run-blocking (that's impressive).
Some of the other rankings were disappointing, like Njoku at 26th with a 69. 74.5 receiving, 61.7 run blocking, and 44 in pass protection.
However, he was a rookie, and the 61.7 run-blocking grade was surprisingly high for mainly a pass-catching tight end.
I didn't find Seth DeValve yet, but he's not the same as Njoku. Njoku has more length to him, and DeValve has a reach disadvantage trying to block edge guys.
I've heard they'll be using him more at H-back this season.
Why is anybody surprised that Ward worked with the first team last week? Like I said, he's not a quarterback!
Hue Jackson warned us not to "read anything into" Mayfield working with the second team, but if you've been reading this blog, you know you should read into it that Mayfield is a better quarterback than Drew Stanton.
Mayfield himself has been a model of humility and a good soldier. He's not nearly as happy with his progress as Hue Jackson is.
I believe this is genuine. It's who this kid is. He's his own worst critic, and is never satisfied. He doesn't want to be as good as Rodgers or Brady, but better.
This mentality was a big reason why he was the first overall pick. A lot of you people still don't get this, but the most important part of a quarterback is the part between his ears (why does nobody get that?)
Most of the comments I read in the various peanut galleries are pretty reasonable, but some permabashers simply can't change.
"Don't worry Baker, you'll be throwing interceptions towards Josh Gordon in no time" huh?
"Dahh...Baker has never throwed to anybody as stoned as Gordon yuk-yuk"
USA Today and ESPN did their offseason grades, and gave the Browns a B instead of an A because well...they're the Browns!?
Mary Kay did a nice overview of the last public OTA session, and says Tyrod Taylor is piling up touchdown passes against Gregg Williams' defense.
The dominant culprit here is Jarvis Landry, and he's scoring as often from outside the red zone as he is from the two.
I've written that Landry won't be the top dog here, as he was in Miami, and can't approach his ungodly 100 catch-per-season average here, but am starting to back off on that a little.
He's clearly Taylor's top target right now, and he's averaging a WHOLE lot more than 8.6 yards per-catch too. And you don't expect a guy under 6' tall to be a red zone threat, but it looks like Landry is.
I'm not concerned about Gregg's defense here, because there is no pass rush, or even an offensive line.
Most of the secondary is new to the team, and they're not "timing up" hits or collisions to knock balls loose or get picks, either. The passing game should have the edge at this point.
But I still like that Gregg Williams makes the defense "drop and give him six" squat-thrusts or whatever to punish his players for losing the session.
Coverage of the OTAs is very shallow, so I have to fill in some blank spaces here (that's my disclaimer):
It sounds like Tyrod Taylor is doing great, and has been reasonably accurate and on-time on his throws.
Baker Mayfield himself seems quite objective about the fact that for the moment, Tyrod is better than he is.
I sensed that about this kid, even when he said "That's not me. I'm trying to start."
Baker Mayfield is not arrogant, at all. He's a short two-time walk-on, so of course he has a chip on his shoulder, but he also said that having to sit out one season after his transfer to Oklahoma was probably good for him.
Mayfield is a lot smarter and mature than many of you people think. And many of you people think he's not because of a very, very superficial resemblance between him and Johnny Manziel.
Shame on you. And they let you vote?
Don't get me wrong here: I'm on the Tyrod Taylor train here!
Taylor ranked 14th among quarterbacks at PFF at 83 (79.7 pass, 86.5 run), barely behind Matt Stafford, but ahead of Dak Prescott, Goff, Dalton, Bortles, Carr, Newton, Flacco etc.
PFF does all it can to make "supporting casts" irrelevant in their grades, so we shouldn't expect Tyrod to shoot up the charts now that he has Landry, Gordon, Njoku etc to throw to, but he's certainly a top fifteen quarterback, and that's a huge upgrade, right?
PFF can't factor everything in, though. They can't be having stats like "in offenses which run over 45% of the time", for example.
Most likely, Tyrod will rank higher in 2018, because Todd Haley will run more than Hue Jackson did, and the defense is just stacked. Tyrod can be a "game manager" for a change, facing less pressure (pass rush, down/distance, score) than he did in 2017.
Baker Mayfield is being dissed as a running threat based on his 4.8-plus 40 time. That's stupid, but there's no denying that Tyrod Taylor is a lot scarier on the ground.
Taylor and Mayfield "overlap" a lot, but for Taylor, Todd Haley will exploit this player's unusual athleticism more.
Business is business, and you pinkos won't like hearing this, but
1: This is Tyrod's last contract year, and he will probably command over 22 mil in 2019. There is no way the Browns can pay that, so he's a GMF.
2: Tyrod is "expendable" in 2018. Baker Mayfield will catch up to Tyrod quickly, and be ready to step in early in the season.
3: This means that Haley will take more risks with Tyrod than he ever would with Mayfield. He will have him keep and run the ball more.
But you comrades should relax, since Taylor himself will love it. He's auditioning for his next contract, and wants to do what he does best.
A few pundits (Brinson for one) think the 2018 Browns have a shot at sneaking into a wild card slot in the playoffs.
While local permabashers are "holding the line" with inane comments, the national guys can't deny Dorsey, Haley, or what they've done in this offseason.
How can a team with these coaches, and this much talent, and these quarterbacks not win?
A few predictions here:
1: Carlos Hyde was signed and overpaid before Nick Chubb was drafted. Nick Chubb is the better player, and will end up with a lot more snaps than Hyde.
2: Nick Chubb will catch at least 23 passes.
3: Denzel Ward will be a top ten cornerback as a rookie.
4: Larry Ogunjobi (ranked 34 by PFF at 82; 83.6 vs the run, 72.4 as a passrusher, and 61.2 in coverage) will get more snaps than any other interior defensive lineman, and will get at least 3.5 sacks and 9 tackles-for-losses.
5: Gregg Williams will run all sorts of fronts, but will try to keep Garrett, Ogbah, Ogunjobe, Collins, Kendricks, and (yes) Rodney Kindredfield on the field together as much as he can.
6: The Browns 2018 defense will rank in the top half in turnovers and points allowed, and in the top third in defensive scoring.
7: The Browns offense will rank in the top half in points, passing, and running yardage.
8: Jarvis Landry will average over 12 yards per-catch and score at least nine touchdowns (although he might only get like merely 80 catches).
9: Nick Chubb will outperform Carlos Hyde in both snaps and yardage, and the combined running backs will pile up over 1800 yards on the ground, and 1,000 receiving yards.
10: Regardless of if/when Baker Mayfield takes over, the Browns quarterback(s) will rank in PFF's top twelve.
11: The 2018 Browns will win at least six games.
Stuporstition has no business in analysis. When you say "it's the Browns" yet again in 2018, that's irrational.
John Dorsey is the new GM, so you could as well say "it's the Chiefs", or (moreso) "it's the Packers". Since Todd Haley is the offensive coordinator now, you might even say "it's the Steelers".
I'm so sick of the permabashers (but that's just me: I'm allergic to insanity in general).
The tough schedule:
Once again, teams at the top lose talent to the salary cap and their low draft status. Teams at the bottom can make big moves up, especially if they come up with a good quarterback (or two).
Per USA Today and ESPN, the Ravens had a better offseason (and Flacco looks great again).
But they still didn't improve as much as the Browns did, nor did the Bengals or Steelers.
Now that the Browns have a quarterback who PFF ranks over Flacco and Dalton, and Baker Mayfield, these are the facts:
The Browns have excellent coaches (now that Hue Jackson is a figurehead).
They are THE most talented team in the AFC North. Don't even start with me on the Killer B's; the respective defenses and special teams matter, ok?
Yeah yeah that offense is awesome, but get the stars out of your eyes and think with your brain.
No, I'm not predicting that the 2018 Browns will sweep the Steelers--only that you are insane if you refuse to see that they'll give the Steelers (and every other elite team) hell.
As for the Bengals and Ravens, the 2018 Browns should sweep them! They should finish at least second in the AFC North.
For those of you with Stockholm Syndrome (like maybe you, G), the law says I can't kidnap and deprogram you, so it's up to you -snap-snap- wake up!
Talent and coaching MATTER. And the Browns now have enough of both to beat any team in the NFL, including the Steelers.
Going a little deeper into coaching, if you get a ten point lead vs any of these top ten quarterbacks, you don't back off (I fear Jackson interfering with Williams and Haley here).
I go way back here: I remember Marty Schottenheimer going to the prevent-the-win defense vs a lamed John Elway in "the Drive".
I've seen a lot of similar stuff from Hue Fisher. Belichick got better after Art Modell kicked him to the curb, but at least he always knew how to "finish" games.
Todd Haley won't go all-run up-the gut, and Williams won't call off the dogs, until the game is in the bag.
This has always frustrated me, about a lot of Head Coaches (certainly including Hue Palmer):
It's not "ignoble" (or whatever) to pile up points, or to keep beating the crap out of a quarterback, until the other team has NO chance to win.
Marty's logic in creating the "Prevent Defense" made sense at first: Take away the big plays, and force the opposing offense to take short gains while burning clock-time.
But offenses rapidly adapted to it with timing patterns and YAC yards...including Elway, who was anything but a sharpshooter:
His receivers were SO open that he couldn't miss. Soft zone coverage, right?
Ah jeez don't get me started. Unless Hue interferes, Williams and Dorsey will pound the stake in when it counts.
Coaching M A T T E R S. Tomlin and Harbaugh won't "roll" Dorsey and Williams at crunch-time like they have Hue Palmer.
You might have noticed I left out Marvin Lewis.
...
Jamie Collins graded out very low, but then he didn't play much, and when he did, he was dinged.
At cornerback, TJ Carrie and Briean Boddy-Calhoun were neck-and neck, ranked 21st and 24th respectively (both a little over 84 overall and vs the pass).
But EJ Gaines was 13th at 86.6 (86.5 coverage, 66.3 vs run). i wonder where Denzel Ward will rank...
Mychal Kendricks ranked the highest of all Browns players at ninth among linebackers. 86 overall, 87 vs the run, 76.8 vs the pass, and 68 as a passrusher.
Joe Schobert ranked 32nd (77.4 overall, 81.6 vs run, 70.7 vs pass, and 48.6 passrushing).
Everybody thinks that John Dorsey flushed analytics down the terlet when he came here, but analytics sure seem to be influencing his decisions. Kendricks is better than Schobert, and Joe could be in trouble here.
Kirksey ranked 52nd overall (59.6 overall, 69.7 vs run, 53.3 vs pass, 52.2 blitzing). Kendricks will challenge him, as well. He beats these two players in every category, and a healthy Jamie Collins will too...not to mention Genard Avery.
I couldn't even find Josh Gordon, so I assume he just hasn't played enough games yet to be ranked.
Carlos Hyde? 50th among running backs. 50th. 51.5 overall, 76.7 running, 34.9 yes 34.9 catching, 28.2 in pass protection, 60 in run-blocking.
Meanwhile, Duke Johnson ranked 15th. 82.5 overall, 74.4 running, 90.1 receiving (wow), 57.1 in pass pro, 60 run-blocking.
Those who expect Carlos Hyde to keep Nick Chubb parked on the bench just don't get it. I have some renewed hope that they'll find a way to hold onto Duke, too.
As I mentioned, Rodney Kindredfield was 28th among safeties with 82.1 overall, 75.6 vs the run, 75.6 yes 75.6 in coverage, and 87.3 vs the run.
I couldn't even find Jabrill Peppers, but assume he ranked really low.
Jarvis Landry ranked 19th at 82. 83 receiving, and 67.5 run-blocking (that's impressive).
Some of the other rankings were disappointing, like Njoku at 26th with a 69. 74.5 receiving, 61.7 run blocking, and 44 in pass protection.
However, he was a rookie, and the 61.7 run-blocking grade was surprisingly high for mainly a pass-catching tight end.
I didn't find Seth DeValve yet, but he's not the same as Njoku. Njoku has more length to him, and DeValve has a reach disadvantage trying to block edge guys.
I've heard they'll be using him more at H-back this season.
Why is anybody surprised that Ward worked with the first team last week? Like I said, he's not a quarterback!
Hue Jackson warned us not to "read anything into" Mayfield working with the second team, but if you've been reading this blog, you know you should read into it that Mayfield is a better quarterback than Drew Stanton.
Mayfield himself has been a model of humility and a good soldier. He's not nearly as happy with his progress as Hue Jackson is.
I believe this is genuine. It's who this kid is. He's his own worst critic, and is never satisfied. He doesn't want to be as good as Rodgers or Brady, but better.
This mentality was a big reason why he was the first overall pick. A lot of you people still don't get this, but the most important part of a quarterback is the part between his ears (why does nobody get that?)
Most of the comments I read in the various peanut galleries are pretty reasonable, but some permabashers simply can't change.
"Don't worry Baker, you'll be throwing interceptions towards Josh Gordon in no time" huh?
"Dahh...Baker has never throwed to anybody as stoned as Gordon yuk-yuk"
USA Today and ESPN did their offseason grades, and gave the Browns a B instead of an A because well...they're the Browns!?
Mary Kay did a nice overview of the last public OTA session, and says Tyrod Taylor is piling up touchdown passes against Gregg Williams' defense.
The dominant culprit here is Jarvis Landry, and he's scoring as often from outside the red zone as he is from the two.
I've written that Landry won't be the top dog here, as he was in Miami, and can't approach his ungodly 100 catch-per-season average here, but am starting to back off on that a little.
He's clearly Taylor's top target right now, and he's averaging a WHOLE lot more than 8.6 yards per-catch too. And you don't expect a guy under 6' tall to be a red zone threat, but it looks like Landry is.
I'm not concerned about Gregg's defense here, because there is no pass rush, or even an offensive line.
Most of the secondary is new to the team, and they're not "timing up" hits or collisions to knock balls loose or get picks, either. The passing game should have the edge at this point.
But I still like that Gregg Williams makes the defense "drop and give him six" squat-thrusts or whatever to punish his players for losing the session.
Coverage of the OTAs is very shallow, so I have to fill in some blank spaces here (that's my disclaimer):
It sounds like Tyrod Taylor is doing great, and has been reasonably accurate and on-time on his throws.
Baker Mayfield himself seems quite objective about the fact that for the moment, Tyrod is better than he is.
I sensed that about this kid, even when he said "That's not me. I'm trying to start."
Baker Mayfield is not arrogant, at all. He's a short two-time walk-on, so of course he has a chip on his shoulder, but he also said that having to sit out one season after his transfer to Oklahoma was probably good for him.
Mayfield is a lot smarter and mature than many of you people think. And many of you people think he's not because of a very, very superficial resemblance between him and Johnny Manziel.
Shame on you. And they let you vote?
Don't get me wrong here: I'm on the Tyrod Taylor train here!
Taylor ranked 14th among quarterbacks at PFF at 83 (79.7 pass, 86.5 run), barely behind Matt Stafford, but ahead of Dak Prescott, Goff, Dalton, Bortles, Carr, Newton, Flacco etc.
PFF does all it can to make "supporting casts" irrelevant in their grades, so we shouldn't expect Tyrod to shoot up the charts now that he has Landry, Gordon, Njoku etc to throw to, but he's certainly a top fifteen quarterback, and that's a huge upgrade, right?
PFF can't factor everything in, though. They can't be having stats like "in offenses which run over 45% of the time", for example.
Most likely, Tyrod will rank higher in 2018, because Todd Haley will run more than Hue Jackson did, and the defense is just stacked. Tyrod can be a "game manager" for a change, facing less pressure (pass rush, down/distance, score) than he did in 2017.
Baker Mayfield is being dissed as a running threat based on his 4.8-plus 40 time. That's stupid, but there's no denying that Tyrod Taylor is a lot scarier on the ground.
Taylor and Mayfield "overlap" a lot, but for Taylor, Todd Haley will exploit this player's unusual athleticism more.
Business is business, and you pinkos won't like hearing this, but
1: This is Tyrod's last contract year, and he will probably command over 22 mil in 2019. There is no way the Browns can pay that, so he's a GMF.
2: Tyrod is "expendable" in 2018. Baker Mayfield will catch up to Tyrod quickly, and be ready to step in early in the season.
3: This means that Haley will take more risks with Tyrod than he ever would with Mayfield. He will have him keep and run the ball more.
But you comrades should relax, since Taylor himself will love it. He's auditioning for his next contract, and wants to do what he does best.
A few pundits (Brinson for one) think the 2018 Browns have a shot at sneaking into a wild card slot in the playoffs.
While local permabashers are "holding the line" with inane comments, the national guys can't deny Dorsey, Haley, or what they've done in this offseason.
How can a team with these coaches, and this much talent, and these quarterbacks not win?
A few predictions here:
1: Carlos Hyde was signed and overpaid before Nick Chubb was drafted. Nick Chubb is the better player, and will end up with a lot more snaps than Hyde.
2: Nick Chubb will catch at least 23 passes.
3: Denzel Ward will be a top ten cornerback as a rookie.
4: Larry Ogunjobi (ranked 34 by PFF at 82; 83.6 vs the run, 72.4 as a passrusher, and 61.2 in coverage) will get more snaps than any other interior defensive lineman, and will get at least 3.5 sacks and 9 tackles-for-losses.
5: Gregg Williams will run all sorts of fronts, but will try to keep Garrett, Ogbah, Ogunjobe, Collins, Kendricks, and (yes) Rodney Kindredfield on the field together as much as he can.
6: The Browns 2018 defense will rank in the top half in turnovers and points allowed, and in the top third in defensive scoring.
7: The Browns offense will rank in the top half in points, passing, and running yardage.
8: Jarvis Landry will average over 12 yards per-catch and score at least nine touchdowns (although he might only get like merely 80 catches).
9: Nick Chubb will outperform Carlos Hyde in both snaps and yardage, and the combined running backs will pile up over 1800 yards on the ground, and 1,000 receiving yards.
10: Regardless of if/when Baker Mayfield takes over, the Browns quarterback(s) will rank in PFF's top twelve.
11: The 2018 Browns will win at least six games.
Stuporstition has no business in analysis. When you say "it's the Browns" yet again in 2018, that's irrational.
John Dorsey is the new GM, so you could as well say "it's the Chiefs", or (moreso) "it's the Packers". Since Todd Haley is the offensive coordinator now, you might even say "it's the Steelers".
I'm so sick of the permabashers (but that's just me: I'm allergic to insanity in general).
The tough schedule:
Once again, teams at the top lose talent to the salary cap and their low draft status. Teams at the bottom can make big moves up, especially if they come up with a good quarterback (or two).
Per USA Today and ESPN, the Ravens had a better offseason (and Flacco looks great again).
But they still didn't improve as much as the Browns did, nor did the Bengals or Steelers.
Now that the Browns have a quarterback who PFF ranks over Flacco and Dalton, and Baker Mayfield, these are the facts:
The Browns have excellent coaches (now that Hue Jackson is a figurehead).
They are THE most talented team in the AFC North. Don't even start with me on the Killer B's; the respective defenses and special teams matter, ok?
Yeah yeah that offense is awesome, but get the stars out of your eyes and think with your brain.
No, I'm not predicting that the 2018 Browns will sweep the Steelers--only that you are insane if you refuse to see that they'll give the Steelers (and every other elite team) hell.
As for the Bengals and Ravens, the 2018 Browns should sweep them! They should finish at least second in the AFC North.
For those of you with Stockholm Syndrome (like maybe you, G), the law says I can't kidnap and deprogram you, so it's up to you -snap-snap- wake up!
Talent and coaching MATTER. And the Browns now have enough of both to beat any team in the NFL, including the Steelers.
Going a little deeper into coaching, if you get a ten point lead vs any of these top ten quarterbacks, you don't back off (I fear Jackson interfering with Williams and Haley here).
I go way back here: I remember Marty Schottenheimer going to the prevent-the-win defense vs a lamed John Elway in "the Drive".
I've seen a lot of similar stuff from Hue Fisher. Belichick got better after Art Modell kicked him to the curb, but at least he always knew how to "finish" games.
Todd Haley won't go all-run up-the gut, and Williams won't call off the dogs, until the game is in the bag.
This has always frustrated me, about a lot of Head Coaches (certainly including Hue Palmer):
It's not "ignoble" (or whatever) to pile up points, or to keep beating the crap out of a quarterback, until the other team has NO chance to win.
Marty's logic in creating the "Prevent Defense" made sense at first: Take away the big plays, and force the opposing offense to take short gains while burning clock-time.
But offenses rapidly adapted to it with timing patterns and YAC yards...including Elway, who was anything but a sharpshooter:
His receivers were SO open that he couldn't miss. Soft zone coverage, right?
Ah jeez don't get me started. Unless Hue interferes, Williams and Dorsey will pound the stake in when it counts.
Coaching M A T T E R S. Tomlin and Harbaugh won't "roll" Dorsey and Williams at crunch-time like they have Hue Palmer.
You might have noticed I left out Marvin Lewis.
...
Tuesday, June 5, 2018
Browns 2018 Defense and Gregg Williams: Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid.
Got to hammer the Mychal Kendricks thing some more, as Dan Labbe slapped me awake with a terrific article about what Doctor Williamstein might do with his suddenly revamped defense.
I'd been dumbly expecting more of the same from last season (three linebackers), but Dan reminded me that that's not Gregg Williams' historical MO.
Last season, Gregg was missing press/man cornerbacks, and had Peppers at free safety. Then Derrick Kindred bit the dust, too.
In 2018, he's added TJ Carrie, Denzel Ward, EJ Gaines, Simeon Thomas (don't sleep on this kid), and Howard Wilson returns from his 2017 injury sabbadical (don't sleep on him either).
Last but not least, free safety frontrunner Damarius Randall upgrades depth at strong safety and safetybacker by moving Peppers closer to the line.
Skipping the linebackers to the defensive line, Dorsey added two defensive ends who can "move inside", and even drafted yet another "3-technique" penetrating defensive tackle.
He traded Danny Shelton (but so far retains Jamie Meder).
Back to linebacker: He drafted Avery, signed Kendricks, and released Tank Carder. Hue Jackson now says that Kendricks will "start out" at middle linebacker.
Thanks to Dan Labbe, who knows more about Gregg Williams, I now forsee a much different Browns' defense in 2018:
While we hope Damarius Randall will be a stud free safety, everything else is covered in-depth now, and Gregg can do everything his insideously diabolical imagination can concieve.
Indeed, he has too much talent to work with, in every position group. He might never have had this much talent and depth to work with before.
Dan Labbe touched on a few possibilities, but I have to pick up his baton and delve deeper:
1: Forget about any conventional 3-4's. Dorsey dumped Shelton, and skipped over every nose-tackle type in the draft and free agency. Instead, he signed and drafted one one-gap defensive tackle, and two defensive ends who could "play inside".
If he fields a 3-man defensive line on any given down, Meder or Ogunjobi will be in the middle, Garrett and Ogbah (or other passrushers) will flank him. Meder or Ogunjobi might play two-gap and force a double-team, but this Gregg Williams 3-man front will feature at least two passrushers.
They won't be edge-rushers, but between guards and tackles, they're too quick/fast for big uglies to manage.
2: Two (real) linebackers (vs 3) is a tough call. Kendricks is the 9th-best linebacker (inside or outside) in the NFL in 2017 ( my bad; I just renewed my PFF subscription and was fulla beans underselling him in my last post).
Joe Schobert (ranked 32nd by PFF) made the Pro Bowl last season, and as I've mentioned was Gregg's "field general", but Kendicks (ranked ninth) is an experienced veteran, and too good not to displace him situationally.
Per PFF, Kendricks beats Schobert in every measurable category, by significant margins.
Any two (real) linebacker set probably has Kendricks and Collins (and not Schobert).
As Dan Labbe points out, Jamie Collins can line up with his hand in the dirt as an edge-rusher...
Dan rightfully expects more real nickles and dimes in 2018, now that Williams has an industrial strength secondary.
3-2, 4-2, 3-3, 4-1 etc: but Dan forgot about Gregg's safetybacker.
Bullcrap aside, are you aware that Derrick Kindred scored 75.6 in coverage per PFF in 2017? Where tf is this "he can't cover" crap coming from?
Anyway, Gregg Williams is overloaded with too much talent here. Sad for him. He has to screw a bunch of stud players out of playing time.
Isn't that terrible?
I'd been dumbly expecting more of the same from last season (three linebackers), but Dan reminded me that that's not Gregg Williams' historical MO.
Last season, Gregg was missing press/man cornerbacks, and had Peppers at free safety. Then Derrick Kindred bit the dust, too.
In 2018, he's added TJ Carrie, Denzel Ward, EJ Gaines, Simeon Thomas (don't sleep on this kid), and Howard Wilson returns from his 2017 injury sabbadical (don't sleep on him either).
Last but not least, free safety frontrunner Damarius Randall upgrades depth at strong safety and safetybacker by moving Peppers closer to the line.
Skipping the linebackers to the defensive line, Dorsey added two defensive ends who can "move inside", and even drafted yet another "3-technique" penetrating defensive tackle.
He traded Danny Shelton (but so far retains Jamie Meder).
Back to linebacker: He drafted Avery, signed Kendricks, and released Tank Carder. Hue Jackson now says that Kendricks will "start out" at middle linebacker.
Thanks to Dan Labbe, who knows more about Gregg Williams, I now forsee a much different Browns' defense in 2018:
While we hope Damarius Randall will be a stud free safety, everything else is covered in-depth now, and Gregg can do everything his insideously diabolical imagination can concieve.
Indeed, he has too much talent to work with, in every position group. He might never have had this much talent and depth to work with before.
Dan Labbe touched on a few possibilities, but I have to pick up his baton and delve deeper:
1: Forget about any conventional 3-4's. Dorsey dumped Shelton, and skipped over every nose-tackle type in the draft and free agency. Instead, he signed and drafted one one-gap defensive tackle, and two defensive ends who could "play inside".
If he fields a 3-man defensive line on any given down, Meder or Ogunjobi will be in the middle, Garrett and Ogbah (or other passrushers) will flank him. Meder or Ogunjobi might play two-gap and force a double-team, but this Gregg Williams 3-man front will feature at least two passrushers.
They won't be edge-rushers, but between guards and tackles, they're too quick/fast for big uglies to manage.
2: Two (real) linebackers (vs 3) is a tough call. Kendricks is the 9th-best linebacker (inside or outside) in the NFL in 2017 ( my bad; I just renewed my PFF subscription and was fulla beans underselling him in my last post).
Joe Schobert (ranked 32nd by PFF) made the Pro Bowl last season, and as I've mentioned was Gregg's "field general", but Kendicks (ranked ninth) is an experienced veteran, and too good not to displace him situationally.
Per PFF, Kendricks beats Schobert in every measurable category, by significant margins.
Any two (real) linebacker set probably has Kendricks and Collins (and not Schobert).
As Dan Labbe points out, Jamie Collins can line up with his hand in the dirt as an edge-rusher...
Dan rightfully expects more real nickles and dimes in 2018, now that Williams has an industrial strength secondary.
3-2, 4-2, 3-3, 4-1 etc: but Dan forgot about Gregg's safetybacker.
Bullcrap aside, are you aware that Derrick Kindred scored 75.6 in coverage per PFF in 2017? Where tf is this "he can't cover" crap coming from?
Anyway, Gregg Williams is overloaded with too much talent here. Sad for him. He has to screw a bunch of stud players out of playing time.
Isn't that terrible?
Monday, June 4, 2018
Kendricks, Avery, DePodesta, Opportunism, and the Browns
I was fooled by all the yawning and snoring in re Mychal Kendricks, and didn't dig deep enough as rumors of his potential signing swirled (I doubted that he would sign with the Browns).
Now that I have looked deeper, I'm really excited about this guy!
I can see the Eagles releasing him, as they're under cap pressure, but I'm still kinda baffled by his dirt-cheap one-year contract. Did Dorsey offer him a respectable long-term contract that he turned down? Why just one year? Why so cheap? What, beyond having a potty-mouth, is wrong with this guy?
Possibly, the one-year deal is just to lock him down for now, and they're still negotiating. This is sometimes done, where an agent trusts a GM to deal in good faith; the longer-term deal negates the one-year deal, and in the end, the player makes his money.
That is risky, though. What if a compromise can't be reached? Then the player is badly underpaid for one season, and is back to square one the next season.
...it just does not compute.
We can suspect that Kendricks took one year so that he could "test the waters" and see how he liked his new team...but 3.5 mil? Are you telling me the Raiders didn't offer him more than that?
Of course, due to the People's Republic of California's state income tax, the Raiders could have offered more and still not matched the Browns.
Well, skip it. Anyway Kendricks will be a Cleveland Brown this season, and we should give John Dorsey a big back-slap for it.
Kendricks is actually one of the 9-12 best outside linebackers in the NFL (and there are 64 starters okay?)
After (belatedly) doing my 10-20 minutes of due diligence, I've learned that he is a total, real linebacker who can cover (well), stuff (nay blow up in the backfield) the run, and blitze.
Check that link: See that almost 40" vertical? 29 reps? 10.6 inch long jump? On Pat Kirwan's explosive scale, Mychal Kendricks is way up there! But a sub-4.5 40 at near 240 lbs, and a sub-6.7 3-cone holeee....
Oh! I GET IT now! He's only 5'11" tall! That explains everything!
Seriously, though, Kendricks sounds a lot like Genard Avery. This is a great fit, as Kendricks can show Avery how it's done (for short guys).
No knock on Christian Kirksey here. Kirksey is a pretty good linebacker. But Kendicks is the wave of the present, and Avery the wave of the future. They are bigger, faster, better in coverage, and make more splash plays.
Kirksey is a top 30 (or so) OLB. Kendricks (and trust me) Avery are better than that.
Short linebackers: Even a lot of the real pros don't seem to understand that "length" isn't everything in an outside linebacker:
In the box, outside linebackers need "length" to hand-fight 6'5"-6'7" offensive linemen and tight ends, and to cover those tight ends. So they disqualify short guys.
Kendricks was an exception, because he was considered an inside linebacker. James Harrison had to scratch and claw to merely exist in the NFL after not having been drafted at all. Avery is in between: Drafted in the fifth round in a deeper linebacker draft, and a different market.
But these talent evaluators have forgotten a few laws of science here:
1: "Low man wins" in leverage.
2: The lower your center of gravity, the quicker you can be. The shorter your legs are, the quicker you can stop, start, and change directions. You get this, right?
3: If you run 4.5 at 240 lbs, that's exceptional.
Former linebacker John Dorsey and Doctor Williamstein seem to have found a flaw in the market here.
Now, I gotta tell you: James Harrison was extremely strong for his size, but didn't compare to Kendricks or Avery as an athlete.
Granted, Harrison played in a 3-4, and this is a 4-3, but look at all those plays Harrison made in coverage!
Everything Harrison did, Kendricks and Avery can do. Harrison may (or may not) be a better edge-rusher, but that's all he might (or might not) have on these two quicker, faster players.
Dorsey just drafted one short linebacker in the fifth round, and signed another for 3.5 mil. What a difference an inch makes!
Seriously, I find this funny, especially since a bunch of people are spazzing out over the Mayfield pick mainly because he's one inch shorter than Rodgers, only two inches taller than Wilson (and Sipe), a half inch taller than Brees, the same height as Taylor oh good grief are you kidding me?
Look at Denzel Ward! 5'11" is "undersized" for a cornerback now!?!
I sincerely believe that Paul DePodesta, who remains in the basement (but on the payroll) is influencing a lot of these moves.
As I have, he has detected a "length"-fixation/bias among NFL talent evaluators, and has advised Dorsey to look for short guys who kick ass, because they are DIRT-CHEAP in this market.
Gregg Williams certainly has a voice (and Dorsey listens), but DePodesta is more than an egghead-geek, as most of you people find it convenient to label the box you mentally stuffed him in:
Paul DePodesta played wide receiver in college. He was an athlete, and things like leverage, "length", etc are not abstract concepts to him.
I'm pretty sure that John Dorsey quickly found this out, and that this is why DePodesta is still here.
DePodesta isn't a "football guy", but he can argue with football guys (including Dorsey) and get them to listen:
"Everybody is fixated on height and reach, so we need to scoop up short studs cheap right now. We also need to adapt our own priorities to Tyrod Taylor and Todd Haley. Rather than reach for the next Joe Thomas, we need a left tackle who might start there immediately, and who, if he doesn't, can start elsewhere, for the time being.
"Carlos Hyde prospered in a zone-blocking scheme, and Todd Haley will use those schemes, unlike...nevermind but Haley will also, partly as a consequence of adapting to Taylor, Hyde, Fells, et cetera, mitigate the loss of Joe Thomas, as the his replacement will be "on an island" only 20% as often as Joe was. Any questions?"
DePodesta remains the chief Strategy officer. I figure the foregoing was close to the mark, and that Paul DePosta has had a strong voice in the lower rounds of this draft, and in free agent signings...and maybe on the Corbett pick.
I channelled a lot of my own thoughts into that, of course, but then I was trained to think with my brain, and to be objective, so I just can't help myself.
Paul Depodesta is smarter than me in most ways, but we have thinking with our brains in common. I bet I nailed this.
No knock on Dorsey here, by any means:
I'll go into Dorsey's (damn good) draft/free agency history later, but (as you will see in three years) this one might well be his best (I mean igoring Mayfield and Ward) offseason ever.
I shouldn't even have ignored Mayfield, since I KNOW that Paul was pounding the table for him (obviously).
If you think Mayfield, Avery, Kendricks, and Ward aren't all studs, you need a brain transplant. And aside from Mayfield, Dorsey got the rest with his spare change!
That's DePodesta!
Pearls before swine ok nevermind
Now that I have looked deeper, I'm really excited about this guy!
I can see the Eagles releasing him, as they're under cap pressure, but I'm still kinda baffled by his dirt-cheap one-year contract. Did Dorsey offer him a respectable long-term contract that he turned down? Why just one year? Why so cheap? What, beyond having a potty-mouth, is wrong with this guy?
Possibly, the one-year deal is just to lock him down for now, and they're still negotiating. This is sometimes done, where an agent trusts a GM to deal in good faith; the longer-term deal negates the one-year deal, and in the end, the player makes his money.
That is risky, though. What if a compromise can't be reached? Then the player is badly underpaid for one season, and is back to square one the next season.
...it just does not compute.
We can suspect that Kendricks took one year so that he could "test the waters" and see how he liked his new team...but 3.5 mil? Are you telling me the Raiders didn't offer him more than that?
Of course, due to the People's Republic of California's state income tax, the Raiders could have offered more and still not matched the Browns.
Well, skip it. Anyway Kendricks will be a Cleveland Brown this season, and we should give John Dorsey a big back-slap for it.
Kendricks is actually one of the 9-12 best outside linebackers in the NFL (and there are 64 starters okay?)
After (belatedly) doing my 10-20 minutes of due diligence, I've learned that he is a total, real linebacker who can cover (well), stuff (nay blow up in the backfield) the run, and blitze.
Check that link: See that almost 40" vertical? 29 reps? 10.6 inch long jump? On Pat Kirwan's explosive scale, Mychal Kendricks is way up there! But a sub-4.5 40 at near 240 lbs, and a sub-6.7 3-cone holeee....
Oh! I GET IT now! He's only 5'11" tall! That explains everything!
Seriously, though, Kendricks sounds a lot like Genard Avery. This is a great fit, as Kendricks can show Avery how it's done (for short guys).
No knock on Christian Kirksey here. Kirksey is a pretty good linebacker. But Kendicks is the wave of the present, and Avery the wave of the future. They are bigger, faster, better in coverage, and make more splash plays.
Kirksey is a top 30 (or so) OLB. Kendricks (and trust me) Avery are better than that.
Short linebackers: Even a lot of the real pros don't seem to understand that "length" isn't everything in an outside linebacker:
In the box, outside linebackers need "length" to hand-fight 6'5"-6'7" offensive linemen and tight ends, and to cover those tight ends. So they disqualify short guys.
Kendricks was an exception, because he was considered an inside linebacker. James Harrison had to scratch and claw to merely exist in the NFL after not having been drafted at all. Avery is in between: Drafted in the fifth round in a deeper linebacker draft, and a different market.
But these talent evaluators have forgotten a few laws of science here:
1: "Low man wins" in leverage.
2: The lower your center of gravity, the quicker you can be. The shorter your legs are, the quicker you can stop, start, and change directions. You get this, right?
3: If you run 4.5 at 240 lbs, that's exceptional.
Former linebacker John Dorsey and Doctor Williamstein seem to have found a flaw in the market here.
Now, I gotta tell you: James Harrison was extremely strong for his size, but didn't compare to Kendricks or Avery as an athlete.
Granted, Harrison played in a 3-4, and this is a 4-3, but look at all those plays Harrison made in coverage!
Everything Harrison did, Kendricks and Avery can do. Harrison may (or may not) be a better edge-rusher, but that's all he might (or might not) have on these two quicker, faster players.
Dorsey just drafted one short linebacker in the fifth round, and signed another for 3.5 mil. What a difference an inch makes!
Seriously, I find this funny, especially since a bunch of people are spazzing out over the Mayfield pick mainly because he's one inch shorter than Rodgers, only two inches taller than Wilson (and Sipe), a half inch taller than Brees, the same height as Taylor oh good grief are you kidding me?
Look at Denzel Ward! 5'11" is "undersized" for a cornerback now!?!
I sincerely believe that Paul DePodesta, who remains in the basement (but on the payroll) is influencing a lot of these moves.
As I have, he has detected a "length"-fixation/bias among NFL talent evaluators, and has advised Dorsey to look for short guys who kick ass, because they are DIRT-CHEAP in this market.
Gregg Williams certainly has a voice (and Dorsey listens), but DePodesta is more than an egghead-geek, as most of you people find it convenient to label the box you mentally stuffed him in:
Paul DePodesta played wide receiver in college. He was an athlete, and things like leverage, "length", etc are not abstract concepts to him.
I'm pretty sure that John Dorsey quickly found this out, and that this is why DePodesta is still here.
DePodesta isn't a "football guy", but he can argue with football guys (including Dorsey) and get them to listen:
"Everybody is fixated on height and reach, so we need to scoop up short studs cheap right now. We also need to adapt our own priorities to Tyrod Taylor and Todd Haley. Rather than reach for the next Joe Thomas, we need a left tackle who might start there immediately, and who, if he doesn't, can start elsewhere, for the time being.
"Carlos Hyde prospered in a zone-blocking scheme, and Todd Haley will use those schemes, unlike...nevermind but Haley will also, partly as a consequence of adapting to Taylor, Hyde, Fells, et cetera, mitigate the loss of Joe Thomas, as the his replacement will be "on an island" only 20% as often as Joe was. Any questions?"
DePodesta remains the chief Strategy officer. I figure the foregoing was close to the mark, and that Paul DePosta has had a strong voice in the lower rounds of this draft, and in free agent signings...and maybe on the Corbett pick.
I channelled a lot of my own thoughts into that, of course, but then I was trained to think with my brain, and to be objective, so I just can't help myself.
Paul Depodesta is smarter than me in most ways, but we have thinking with our brains in common. I bet I nailed this.
No knock on Dorsey here, by any means:
I'll go into Dorsey's (damn good) draft/free agency history later, but (as you will see in three years) this one might well be his best (I mean igoring Mayfield and Ward) offseason ever.
I shouldn't even have ignored Mayfield, since I KNOW that Paul was pounding the table for him (obviously).
If you think Mayfield, Avery, Kendricks, and Ward aren't all studs, you need a brain transplant. And aside from Mayfield, Dorsey got the rest with his spare change!
That's DePodesta!
Pearls before swine ok nevermind
Sunday, June 3, 2018
Kendricks, Corbett, Dorsey, and the 2018 Browns
I can see why the Browns would like to sign Mychal Kendricks, but not why (aside from money) he would opt for the Browns over the Raiders.
Forget about roster talent: Kendricks wants an opportunity to play more, and the Raiders have holes at linebacker that the Browns don't.
Kendricks could maybe beat out Chris Kirksey here, but you need to stop dissing Denard Avery based solely on where he was drafted; he'll be an immediate top contender for playing time in 2018.
And the report of a one year deal looked wrong to me as well. The guy is 28; if you sign a "prove it" deal, you sign where you are confident you will start. You can't prove a damn thing collecting splinters.
And anyway, at that age, Kendricks wants the security of a longer-term deal. 29 is not a good age to enter free agency.
I'm not counting Kendricks out here, but my money is on the Raiders.
Joe Gilbert (WFNY) did another great "Film Room" article on Austin Corbett's prospects at left tackle.
I do have to stipulate that Joe mainly used film from one game (vs Northwestern), so this is a small sample size.
No knock on Joe: He's a columnist, not a scout: He just made his argument, and cobbled together some snippets to illustrate what he's talking about. I always find Joe's Film Rooms informative and educational.
Anyway, you can see a lot of reasons why Dorsey drafted Corbett over more physically-gifted candidates.
Corbett is highly refined and very intelligent. He takes small steps, and never leans or lunges. His hands (punch) are exceptional. He spots outside-in stunts instantly (that's unusual).
Joe Gilbert didn't mention this, but I will:
With these quarterbacks (I mean Taylor and Mayfield in the real world), and these running backs, Todd Haley won't do what Hue Fisher did in 2017.
Todd will run more zone-blocking, with more run-pass options, read-options, rollouts, etc.
All of these help the left tackle out.
Nobody is going to replace Joe Thomas (but Big Joe has volunteered his time to coach up his potential replacements how cool is that!?!)
Haley (not Hue but Haley) can mitigate the damage losing Thomas will cause.
Understand that defenders can't read pass from run as quickly vs zone-blocking. It "looks" the same. And zone fits hand-in-glove with run-pass options, zone reads, and rollouts.
Pass-catching tight ends who aren't good in-line blockers are more effective blockers in space, and zone-blocking schemes help them prosper. They get to chip and then hit guys their own size or smaller.
Fells is an elite in-line blocking tight end, but is also lethal in space, for that matter, but I digress:
Austin Corbett and Shon Coleman are the top left tackle contenders in my book. Moving Joel Bitonio there is a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency move which would blow interior line chemistry out of the water.
Niether could replace Joe Thomas in a Hue Palmer offense, but under Dorsey, the new left tackle won't be "on an island" nearly as often.
Austin Corbett has a good shot at left tackle in 2018...and of being above average too.
THIS JUST IN: Looks like they signed Kendricks (one year/3.5 mil) after all (and he's only 27 my bad).
Evidently Kirksey is on the spot. Kendricks is bigger, better in coverage, and faster too.
Kirksey is signed through 2021 (for a lot more money), and he's probably already on the trading block.
I'm kind of amazed that Mychal Kendricks came this cheap...it explains the one-year deal. He intends to negotiate his next contract on the field in 2018.
His previous contract approximated Christian Kirksey's current one.
Wow.
Forget about roster talent: Kendricks wants an opportunity to play more, and the Raiders have holes at linebacker that the Browns don't.
Kendricks could maybe beat out Chris Kirksey here, but you need to stop dissing Denard Avery based solely on where he was drafted; he'll be an immediate top contender for playing time in 2018.
And the report of a one year deal looked wrong to me as well. The guy is 28; if you sign a "prove it" deal, you sign where you are confident you will start. You can't prove a damn thing collecting splinters.
And anyway, at that age, Kendricks wants the security of a longer-term deal. 29 is not a good age to enter free agency.
I'm not counting Kendricks out here, but my money is on the Raiders.
Joe Gilbert (WFNY) did another great "Film Room" article on Austin Corbett's prospects at left tackle.
I do have to stipulate that Joe mainly used film from one game (vs Northwestern), so this is a small sample size.
No knock on Joe: He's a columnist, not a scout: He just made his argument, and cobbled together some snippets to illustrate what he's talking about. I always find Joe's Film Rooms informative and educational.
Anyway, you can see a lot of reasons why Dorsey drafted Corbett over more physically-gifted candidates.
Corbett is highly refined and very intelligent. He takes small steps, and never leans or lunges. His hands (punch) are exceptional. He spots outside-in stunts instantly (that's unusual).
Joe Gilbert didn't mention this, but I will:
With these quarterbacks (I mean Taylor and Mayfield in the real world), and these running backs, Todd Haley won't do what Hue Fisher did in 2017.
Todd will run more zone-blocking, with more run-pass options, read-options, rollouts, etc.
All of these help the left tackle out.
Nobody is going to replace Joe Thomas (but Big Joe has volunteered his time to coach up his potential replacements how cool is that!?!)
Haley (not Hue but Haley) can mitigate the damage losing Thomas will cause.
Understand that defenders can't read pass from run as quickly vs zone-blocking. It "looks" the same. And zone fits hand-in-glove with run-pass options, zone reads, and rollouts.
Pass-catching tight ends who aren't good in-line blockers are more effective blockers in space, and zone-blocking schemes help them prosper. They get to chip and then hit guys their own size or smaller.
Fells is an elite in-line blocking tight end, but is also lethal in space, for that matter, but I digress:
Austin Corbett and Shon Coleman are the top left tackle contenders in my book. Moving Joel Bitonio there is a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency move which would blow interior line chemistry out of the water.
Niether could replace Joe Thomas in a Hue Palmer offense, but under Dorsey, the new left tackle won't be "on an island" nearly as often.
Austin Corbett has a good shot at left tackle in 2018...and of being above average too.
THIS JUST IN: Looks like they signed Kendricks (one year/3.5 mil) after all (and he's only 27 my bad).
Evidently Kirksey is on the spot. Kendricks is bigger, better in coverage, and faster too.
Kirksey is signed through 2021 (for a lot more money), and he's probably already on the trading block.
I'm kind of amazed that Mychal Kendricks came this cheap...it explains the one-year deal. He intends to negotiate his next contract on the field in 2018.
His previous contract approximated Christian Kirksey's current one.
Wow.
Friday, June 1, 2018
Briean Boddy-Calhoun vs Jarvis Landry, Browns Corrections
I just need to correct some general misconceptions by assorted pundits first here:
1: Denzel Ward was not neccessarily Dorsey's favorite player at fourth overall. He was definitely Gregg Williams' favorite, and Dorsey drafted the guy he wanted.
Dorsey is "owning" the pick now, as he should. GMs rightfully take the credit and the blame for their draft picks.
I personally still think Dorsey would have drafted Chubb absent Williams' input.
2: Denzel Ward is not a quarterback. He will almost certainly start in game one. As I explained in my last post, man corner is not rocket science, and even if it were, he has to practice against Gordon and Landry.
Terry Pluto mentioned that Hanford Dixon didn't start at first. Terry must be younger than I am: Dixon wasn't as quick or fast as Ward, but was bigger and taller. The two players are very different.
Dixon used his muscle and brains to overcome his (comparative) limitations.
A better comparison for Terry would have been Frank Minnifield. Minnifield was actually shorter and lighter than Ward, but was fast and could jump out of the gym.
Terry said that in his opinion, in the OTA sessions open to the public, Baker Mayfield looked great hitting his first read, but not that good when he had to check down.
Being Terry, he was quick to point out that Mayfield is making a big jump from his Oklahoma offense to Todd Haley's playbook, even as he drills on taking snaps from under center.
I can take this further: As the quarterback retreats from under center, he can only see about half the field. His pads and helmet don't let him look over his left shoulder.
When he plants his feet, he can see the left half of the field, but he may have been tracking a receiver already, or expecting a guy to be open on a left-to-right slant or cross.
Sometimes it doesn't work out that way, and for a guy used to seeing the whole field from the snap, it can short-ciruit him.
Mayfield has the mental hardware to adapt, but needs a lot of reps.
It now seems pretty smart to me that Hue Jackson declared Tyrod Taylor the starter, period. Hue was second-guessed on this by a lot of smart people (along with a few dumb ones) on NFL Radio.
Really, this is about public relations, and managing expectations: Even I was more optimistic than I should have been about Mayfield's readiness to start.
I had bad influences like Phil Simms et al who think baptisms by fire just separate the wheat from the chaff (Phil scoffs at all this "loss of confidence" stuff...and so do I, kinda...I mean, if you can't overcome those early set-backs; if you're not strong enough to keep grinding and progressing, this gig aint for you anyhow, is it?)
But Tyrod Taylor is here, and baptisms by fire are unneccessary. And for Phil (and Brian Billick), somebody carved in stone that any quarterback drafted first overall who doesn't start immediately is a wasted pick.
They think that Mayfield has to start game one, or else "why did you draft him there?".
They're kind of deranged. And irrational. Both of these guys would laugh if I suggested that Baker Mayfield could take this team to the 2018 Superbowl, but agree that he'd have a shot in 2019.
They only think he has to start as a rookie because of where he was drafted (regardless of Tyrod Taylor, who they both respect, and gives them a better chance to win in 2018)
Billick was fortunate to have Ozzie Newsome looking out for him, and Phil...
Nevermind anyhow Terry Pluto was also impressed by the chemistry Tyrod Taylor and Jarvis Landry already have with eachother.
He described several specific plays, and those plays were for more than ten yards each.
This isn't surprising, since Jarvis Landry is every quarterback's "go-to" guy, and Tyrod Taylor never had anybody like him...and because Denzel Ward is on Gordon and not him........
Is Briean Boddy-Calhoun covering Landry? He should be, if Landry is the slot guy...
Coverage of OTAs is shallow and general (including my man Terry P).
I've got to guess that Jarvis Landry is humiliating Boddy-Calhoun here (so far).
I can't get too concerned about it, however: Jarvis Landry has humiliated everybody else who tried to cover him too. It doesn't mean Calhoun suddenly sucks, or can't keep stifling lesser slot receivers.
Indeed, it's great if Landry is humiliating him, because it will force Briean to get even better.
I'm even starting to re-think my criticism of Dorsey trading for and then overpaying Jarvis Landry with Duke Johnson already here.
I'll have to get back to that later (it's last call) okbye
1: Denzel Ward was not neccessarily Dorsey's favorite player at fourth overall. He was definitely Gregg Williams' favorite, and Dorsey drafted the guy he wanted.
Dorsey is "owning" the pick now, as he should. GMs rightfully take the credit and the blame for their draft picks.
I personally still think Dorsey would have drafted Chubb absent Williams' input.
2: Denzel Ward is not a quarterback. He will almost certainly start in game one. As I explained in my last post, man corner is not rocket science, and even if it were, he has to practice against Gordon and Landry.
Terry Pluto mentioned that Hanford Dixon didn't start at first. Terry must be younger than I am: Dixon wasn't as quick or fast as Ward, but was bigger and taller. The two players are very different.
Dixon used his muscle and brains to overcome his (comparative) limitations.
A better comparison for Terry would have been Frank Minnifield. Minnifield was actually shorter and lighter than Ward, but was fast and could jump out of the gym.
Terry said that in his opinion, in the OTA sessions open to the public, Baker Mayfield looked great hitting his first read, but not that good when he had to check down.
Being Terry, he was quick to point out that Mayfield is making a big jump from his Oklahoma offense to Todd Haley's playbook, even as he drills on taking snaps from under center.
I can take this further: As the quarterback retreats from under center, he can only see about half the field. His pads and helmet don't let him look over his left shoulder.
When he plants his feet, he can see the left half of the field, but he may have been tracking a receiver already, or expecting a guy to be open on a left-to-right slant or cross.
Sometimes it doesn't work out that way, and for a guy used to seeing the whole field from the snap, it can short-ciruit him.
Mayfield has the mental hardware to adapt, but needs a lot of reps.
It now seems pretty smart to me that Hue Jackson declared Tyrod Taylor the starter, period. Hue was second-guessed on this by a lot of smart people (along with a few dumb ones) on NFL Radio.
Really, this is about public relations, and managing expectations: Even I was more optimistic than I should have been about Mayfield's readiness to start.
I had bad influences like Phil Simms et al who think baptisms by fire just separate the wheat from the chaff (Phil scoffs at all this "loss of confidence" stuff...and so do I, kinda...I mean, if you can't overcome those early set-backs; if you're not strong enough to keep grinding and progressing, this gig aint for you anyhow, is it?)
But Tyrod Taylor is here, and baptisms by fire are unneccessary. And for Phil (and Brian Billick), somebody carved in stone that any quarterback drafted first overall who doesn't start immediately is a wasted pick.
They think that Mayfield has to start game one, or else "why did you draft him there?".
They're kind of deranged. And irrational. Both of these guys would laugh if I suggested that Baker Mayfield could take this team to the 2018 Superbowl, but agree that he'd have a shot in 2019.
They only think he has to start as a rookie because of where he was drafted (regardless of Tyrod Taylor, who they both respect, and gives them a better chance to win in 2018)
Billick was fortunate to have Ozzie Newsome looking out for him, and Phil...
Nevermind anyhow Terry Pluto was also impressed by the chemistry Tyrod Taylor and Jarvis Landry already have with eachother.
He described several specific plays, and those plays were for more than ten yards each.
This isn't surprising, since Jarvis Landry is every quarterback's "go-to" guy, and Tyrod Taylor never had anybody like him...and because Denzel Ward is on Gordon and not him........
Is Briean Boddy-Calhoun covering Landry? He should be, if Landry is the slot guy...
Coverage of OTAs is shallow and general (including my man Terry P).
I've got to guess that Jarvis Landry is humiliating Boddy-Calhoun here (so far).
I can't get too concerned about it, however: Jarvis Landry has humiliated everybody else who tried to cover him too. It doesn't mean Calhoun suddenly sucks, or can't keep stifling lesser slot receivers.
Indeed, it's great if Landry is humiliating him, because it will force Briean to get even better.
I'm even starting to re-think my criticism of Dorsey trading for and then overpaying Jarvis Landry with Duke Johnson already here.
I'll have to get back to that later (it's last call) okbye
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