I've looked over the most recent Browns depth charts, and noticed a few things:
The three interior linemen are seasoned veterans. Both current tackles will be entering their third seasons. (Actually, Joe Thomas will be back, and Spencer Drango will return to the bench, to provide excellent depth at four positions.) This will be a veteran offensive line, which will now have been together for a number of games.
At wide receiver, Josh Gordon is a veteran, and Corey Coleman will be entering his own third season (in the same system). We don't know what will become of Rashard Higgins, but he is a veteran now, as well.
Tight end is younger. DeValve is now a veteran, and certainly so is Randall Telfer, but Njoku enters only his second season, and will probably have a few "bugs" left to work out. Still, all in all, as a group, the tight ends have been there/done that.
At running back, Hue Fisher has already chased Isaiah Crowell away, but Duke Johnson and Matthew Dayes will stick around. But the "veteran" stuff is far less important for a running back than it is for any other position player anyway.
It's important that both of these guys are capable pass-protectors; that's a key thing it takes a lot of running backs time to learn coming to the pros.
So as you can see, this is now, suddenly, a veteran offense, just waiting for a real quarterback to take the wheel!
This is one of the reasons I keep telling anyone who will listen: If you put Alex Smith behind center here, things will happen a lot faster than you think. As in instantly.
Trade rumors in re the Browns and KC are already propogating, and already involve the stars and the moon. That's crap. Smith is on the last year of his contract like (like Jimmy G was), and is a whole helluva lot older and more expensive.
I didn't even think any other team would try to actually trade for him (instead of waiting for the cap-strapped Chiefs to cut him loose), but recent revelations have made me think that other teams will make offers, just to make sure they're the ones who land him.
But 4th overall is a joke. That's not happening. Cleveland fans can never restrain themselves from spending as much draft capital and money as they can as soon as they can.
Walter Football expects the Browns to get a veteran quarterback too (including maybe AJ McCarron, which is why in their mock draft they have the Browns drafting superback Saquon Barkley first overall, and ignoring quarterback entirely throughout the draft.)
Amazing, isn't it? It's either/or with these guys, and McCarron is also the same as Cousins or Smith to them! Stunning...
Josh Allen is rumored to the Browns. He's not very accurate, but can run around like Cam Newton and has a great arm. If this sounds familiar, it should. See "Kizer, DeShone".
The Browns could draft Barkley first, but only if their quarterback will be there two picks later. Everybody ELSE seems to think that Rosen and Darnold are the plums here, and everybody else kinda sucks.
"Dorsey would never risk waiting to four for a quarterback". Well if he likes Baker Mayfield as much as I still do, or at least as much as Darnold, then why tf wouldn't he wait?
Oh yeah! Hue would never consider a 6'1" quarterback right? I mean he once said that he preferred guys over 6'2", ergo no matter how fast they processed, or how athletic or accurate they were, or what great leaders they were, he would never consider a short quarterback right?
There's another thing at work here too: Sashi Brown was rumored by the Soap Writers of America to be "forcing" guys on the innocent genius Hue Jackson. Well, that was bullshit.
But Ken Dorsey is a different story. Dorsey WILL express his opinions on quarterbacks to Hue Jackson, and will TELL him if he thinks he is wrong!
Hue Jackson has a rep for developing quarterbacks...not for DRAFTING them. To Ken Dorsey, this matters. And look at Kizer:
Who won the quarterback battle in training camp? Dorsey draft pick Kevin Hogan! Who decided to start the rookie DeShone Kizer anyway? Hue. And how has that worked out?
Dorsey can't tell Hue who to start, but he CAN draft the guy Hue doesn't want, for his own good, and he WILL if he has to!
Anyway, there's a great chance that Saquon Barkley AND Alex Smith will both be Cleveland Browns in 2018, and that would be amazing...as in they could score points on ANYBODY!!!
The defense is much younger. With the returns of Ogbah, Collins, and Kindred, three veteran starters will return. Garrett and Peppers will enter their second seasons. Coley is listed at DT next to Shelton, but both Ogunjobi and Brantley will be second year players, as will be Howard Wilson, who will compete for a starting cornerback role.
The preponderance of these players will enter only their third seasons, as well. They've been around long enough not to screw up a lot, but they're still not "there" yet developmentally.
Some of these guys are really special, like Rodney Ogbahfield. Had he not been injured, 8 or more sacks would not be surprising. Everybody raves about how good he is vs the run as well, but this guy will put a hurt on opposing quarterbacks opposite Myles Garrett next season too.
The Browns need a THIRD edge-rusher for insurance, but Ogbah is here to stay.
Joe Schobert may have approached his peak already, but has upside remaining, and in his second season was named a Pro Bowl alternate by his peers.
Derrick Kindred was actually playing Gregg Williams LB/S hybrid when he was injured. I know, we all thought Peppers would do that, but Kindred took to it like a duck to water. His future here is so bright, he's gotta wear shades.
And I can't wait to see what Peppers himself can do with a season under his belt.
Walter Football is always wrong about the Browns. They think Coley, Brantley, and Ogunjobi all suck, so they mock the Browns drafting a DT "to complement Shelton" (and a DE/DT guy too).
Then a linebacker (to replace Jamie Collins). And before that, a right tackle to replace the disappointing Shon Coleman. Walterfootball improves each season after the draft combine, and bumps up against competence. But they keep trying to be different, even when the consensus is right, which is usually.
There are some question marks here:
One is Carl Nassib. I expected him to break out as a passrusher, but he didn't. He does blow things up and deflect passes, and pressure quarterbacks as well, but he's not like Ogbah as a passrusher.
But he's still a good rotational player with upside left. I'd be surprised if Dorsey let him go.
Matthew Dayes is not guaranteed a job, but I'd pump the brakes on dumping him, because he can step right in for Duke Johnson, and nobody else can. He's also good on special teams.
I've discovered that I was harder on Jamar Taylor than I should have been, by the way. Per PFF, Taylor ranked close to Calhoun (the best here) and McCourty. All these guys ranked in the top 30% (I think) in the NFL, and maybe ahead of Joe Haden...just sayin...who was making more money than those three combined (or at least close to it) just sayin...
Cody Kessler is a GMF, Kizer is NOT. Hogan has a remote chance at the Practice Squad: A veteran and a drafted quarterback are on the way here.
Now, Ken Dorsey has already told us that nothing short of the AFC North Championship is an acceptable target in 2018. To translate that into English for most of you, that means that the championship is the goal. He did not promise or predict anything.
I'm right with him here. Dorsey is certain that, at the very least, he'll sign McCarron, and (despite the previous regime not getting Hue any "real players"), he has a strong defense and a veteran offense ready to rock with a competent signal-caller.
At the moment, the Stoolers look invincable, but they're probably going to lose Ebeneezer Belle, Ben can't last forever, and their passrush and coverage just aren't there, even now.
The Ravens are in decline as well. I'm shocked by what they did accomplish! That defense was hellacious, and Flacco delivered...Harbaugh might be the real Coach of the Year.
...but they're fading. Yes they are.
The Bangles are befuddling. I don't know what to make of them! The bitch is, if one AFC North coach can find a way NOT to beat them, it's Hue Lewis.
The Browns are young and emerging. Ahead of free agency and the draft, just a competant quarterback can beat those teams with this roster (even sans Crowell). That's a fact. That's the truth.
Shut up and listen:
1: Who will have the best offensive line in the AFC North?
2: If the Steelers lose Belle and the Browns draft Barkley, who will have the most lethal swiss army weapon in the AFC North?
3: If the Steelers KEEP Belle, where does the rest of their TEAM go?
4: Josh Gordon.
5: Could AJ McCarron approximate Andy Dalton? Is Alex Smith a match for Rottenburgers and Big Bird?
Count on Dorsey going after not just young, but also older free agents (for the right prices) as he makes his move. Pencil in Terrelle Pryor and a top cornerback right now.
Dorsey might burn a second-rounder on Joe Thomas Jr., and 1 or 4 on a future QB, but the other four top 65 picks will go for immediate impact players.
One will probably be another edge-rusher. Another will be a cornerback or free safety. Another could be anything at all, since he's already in "best available" territory (he might TRADE DOWN! He won't even NEED anything anymore!)
KEN DORSEY IS ONE QUARTERBACK AWAY FROM CONTENDING FOR THE AFC CHAMPIONSHIP RIGHT TF NOW DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Crap. I lead you to it. I point at it. I Sprinkle bullion on it to make you sniff it...yep-yup-yup. Stockholm Syndrome for sure. Well, just wait and see.
THIS JUST IN: Thanks to Dan Labbe, I now know that Andrew Berry and Paul DePodesta have been retained (so far). So far, I gotta back off a little on my perceptions of Ken Dorsey. Maybe he actually wants to win more than he wants to be a star. We'll see.
Wednesday, January 10, 2018
Andrew Berry vs Eliot Wolf: Not Even Close.
It's great that Ken Dorsey wants to replace Andrew Berry with the more famous and experienced Eliot Wolf of the Packers. If you want to see how great Wolf is, just check out the last two Packers dr...
Err well, just compare the last two Packers drafts to the Br...
...Okay. well everybody just knows Wolf is better is all!
Seriously, Berry's and Wolf's roles with their respective teams were nearly identical. Berry sought out NFL veterans, and consulted on the college players (including undrafted free agents).
Here, Ken Dorsey will oversee the draft, and others are contributors. Nor should Wolf be penalized for getting stuck with much lower draft picks. And draft comparisons between the Browns and Packers should rightfully delete Garrett and Coleman, at least.
Still, in free agency as well as in however much his input influenced his draft classes, Andrew Berry clearly outperformed Eliot Wolf.
The Collins trade was a no-brainer, but check out McCourty, Boddy-Calhoun, Coley, Tretter, Zietler, Burgess, etc.
The Packers have been a model organization for a long time, but why is Ken Dorsey basing his decisions on reputations more than performance? Has he even bothered to look at what the guy he inheritted has accomplished? Did he come here with his mind made up?
Are any of the aforementioned players "real"? Berry is an ex-player himself. Maybe Dorsey doesn't think he's real either.
Given his character, I'm surprised Dorsey isn't stashing Berry in the basement and just taking credit for everything he comes up with! If he hires Wolf, he has to share a modicum of the glory!
Oh now I get it! He needs somebody else to blame for all the mistakes!
DePodesta will probably have to go. Dorsey will have to carry his plan forward, and keeping him around will remind people that Ken isn't the one who thought of it.
Paul can't be pushed around, either. He can make more money as a Fortune 500 business consultant, and writing computer programs. He only wants to hang around the Browns to see his plans yield their predictable results.
Ken can't have that! He has to fire DePodesta, and then say "I know what we should do!", and then act like he just thought of DePodesta's plan himself.
Sad to think Jimmy might actually fall for it. Bet he doesn't. But a bunch of YOU will!
Anyway, Dorsey himself has a great draft history, so he shouldn't start screwing up now. But I just hate it when people do great jobs and get kicked to the curb anyway. It reeks of politics and personal ambition. It's unamerican.
Andrew Berry should get the job Dorsey has earmarked for some old buddy. He EARNED it. Can't you just let the best man win?
THIS JUST IN: HELL, NO! Dorsey just hired three of his old buddies from the Chiefs. Berry never had a chance.
It's a common move for GMs to make, and I'm sure the KC guys are really good too. It's probably better for Dorsey to have people he has good communications with, but I'll miss Andrew.
Err well, just compare the last two Packers drafts to the Br...
...Okay. well everybody just knows Wolf is better is all!
Seriously, Berry's and Wolf's roles with their respective teams were nearly identical. Berry sought out NFL veterans, and consulted on the college players (including undrafted free agents).
Here, Ken Dorsey will oversee the draft, and others are contributors. Nor should Wolf be penalized for getting stuck with much lower draft picks. And draft comparisons between the Browns and Packers should rightfully delete Garrett and Coleman, at least.
Still, in free agency as well as in however much his input influenced his draft classes, Andrew Berry clearly outperformed Eliot Wolf.
The Collins trade was a no-brainer, but check out McCourty, Boddy-Calhoun, Coley, Tretter, Zietler, Burgess, etc.
The Packers have been a model organization for a long time, but why is Ken Dorsey basing his decisions on reputations more than performance? Has he even bothered to look at what the guy he inheritted has accomplished? Did he come here with his mind made up?
Are any of the aforementioned players "real"? Berry is an ex-player himself. Maybe Dorsey doesn't think he's real either.
Given his character, I'm surprised Dorsey isn't stashing Berry in the basement and just taking credit for everything he comes up with! If he hires Wolf, he has to share a modicum of the glory!
Oh now I get it! He needs somebody else to blame for all the mistakes!
DePodesta will probably have to go. Dorsey will have to carry his plan forward, and keeping him around will remind people that Ken isn't the one who thought of it.
Paul can't be pushed around, either. He can make more money as a Fortune 500 business consultant, and writing computer programs. He only wants to hang around the Browns to see his plans yield their predictable results.
Ken can't have that! He has to fire DePodesta, and then say "I know what we should do!", and then act like he just thought of DePodesta's plan himself.
Sad to think Jimmy might actually fall for it. Bet he doesn't. But a bunch of YOU will!
Anyway, Dorsey himself has a great draft history, so he shouldn't start screwing up now. But I just hate it when people do great jobs and get kicked to the curb anyway. It reeks of politics and personal ambition. It's unamerican.
Andrew Berry should get the job Dorsey has earmarked for some old buddy. He EARNED it. Can't you just let the best man win?
THIS JUST IN: HELL, NO! Dorsey just hired three of his old buddies from the Chiefs. Berry never had a chance.
It's a common move for GMs to make, and I'm sure the KC guys are really good too. It's probably better for Dorsey to have people he has good communications with, but I'll miss Andrew.
Monday, January 8, 2018
Real Browns Needs and Projections on this Planet
As we've already heard from my clan, a lot of Browns fans think the 2018 Browns need to replace about 43 players.
When Ken Dorsey was first hired, Mary Kay Cabbott couldn't wait to predict that he would release a whole bunch of players.
Let's start with the safeties: At free, those were Jabrill Peppers and Kai Nacua. As I've noted, Gregg Williams runs every coverage there is, and this high center-fielder "angel" position is played less than 25% of the time.
Peppers underperformed early at the unfamiliar position, but gradually improved with repetition. Nacua never even got an opportunity until late in the season, when Peppers was injured.
He played well enough while filling in that Williams kept using him after Peppers' return.
Peppers didn't get his first interception until his last game. Overall, their efforts were unacceptable. Nobody denies that. But you can't base a player's projected performance on his rookie season (unless he's a running back).
Players make big leaps over the offseasons between their first and second, and then their second and third seasons. These "leaps" continue after that, but the growth curve flattens out.
For some of my peeps and perhaps Mary Kay, the book is already closed on Nacua and Peppers, and they're anxious to replace them, just when Williams and company are expecting them to return as much-improved veteran players.
While an Ed Reed would be an undeniable upgrade, free safety will not be considered a priority need. Peppers is bigger, quicker, faster, and even smarter than most NFL free safeties, and Gregg Williams is not being "stubborn".
At strong safety, Derrick Kindred will return from IR. He was having an All-Pro season when he went down with sacks, tackles for losses, and even in coverage. He was one of the brightest spots on the whole defense.
Justin Currie is also a pretty good player, especially in coverage. The Browns don't need a strong safety at all.
Now if you look at Ourlad's Depth Chart, you'll see that safeties are safeties (no "f" or "s" prefix). That's partly because Gregg Williams can and will use whichever coverage schemes he has to based on his personnel.
Jason McCourty was among the best cornerbacks in the NFL, but he's almost 32. Brien Boddy-Calhoun, entering his third season, is certainly a proven winner. Howard Wilson was drafted last season, but was placed on IR before he could take the field. He was highly rated, and will have his opportunity in 2018.
Micheal Jordan was a pleasant surprise, but Jamar Taylor was just plain terrible. He's a veteran, and has no excuses. HE could be released.
You can't have too many cornerbacks, and Wilson has yet to prove anything, so cornerback will be a priority. Given the free agent market, a high-profile veteran could well be signed, along with at least one more in the draft.
The secondary overall looked worse than it was because Ogbah and Collins were lost, Garrett missed time, and opposing offenses were playing from ahead. Quarterbacks exploited soft coverage late with quick-hitters underneath.
The secondary didn't suck.
Picking on the linebackers isn't worth addressing. The Browns are all set there. Gregg Williams uses safeties at linebacker and sometimes uses one or two linebackers, and that matters.
Some will identify EDGE as a "pressing need". That's overstating it, but certainly Ogbah's replacements failed to generate enough heat, and Ogbah himself is no Garrett.
It's not truly a pressing need, but another scary edge-rusher would upgrade the whole defense, so that should be a priority.
Defensive tackle is...well there are too many of them! Amazing talent! Amazing depth!
To review, there are no real "pressing needs" on this defense, but cornerback and edge-rusher should be priorities, and (free) safety will be looked at.
The 2017 Browns defense had one major problem: The 2017 Browns offense.
The problems with the offense did include the offensive line once Big Joe went down. Spencer Drango went above and beyond in relief, but is nothing like Joe. Because the Browns needed to help him out, one tight end often had to act like a sixth offensive lineman, and was unavailable as a receiver or downfield blocker.
Joe will return in the spring, and with him, this projects as one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.
Left tackle could be a priority for the Browns. Roderick Johnson, a raw project, was drafted last season with an eye towards eventually replacing Big Joe, but like Howard Wilson, he has yet to prove anything, and no assumptions can be made about him.
I can skip a few steps here by jumping to quarterback. Quarterback was THE problem with the Browns offense. It was not any of the receivers once Coleman and Gordon returned. It was not the running backs or the tight ends. It was the quarterback, the quarterback, and the quarterback.
Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.
Obviously the Browns will draft one with the top pick and try to sign Smith or Cousins. Either of these veterans would instantly transform this same offense, with these same players, into a force to be reckoned with.
You have to THINK about this, just a little:
1: Receivers can't produce when balls sail over their heads or land in the dirt in front of them, or simply are not thrown at all. You are blaming the receivers for the quarterback. All of them get OPEN and have good hands. Go over some old tapes and you'll see it. Is he open? Was the ball catchable? Watch it!
2: Njoku was a rookie. Rookie tight ends rarely achieve much. OJ Howard couldn't catch up to Cameron Brate. Hunter Henry was still struggling. DeValve was a second year converted wide receiver who I gotta say improved drasticly as an in-line blocker later in the season.
3: Stop judging Corey Coleman for getting open all the time and not getting thrown to. Yes, he choked on that touchdown pass, but I almost can't blame him. He couldn't believe that pass was actually right TO him! He must have been disoriented and in shock. Coleman does NOT normally drop passes!
4: Josh Gordon is Josh Gordon. We have to keep our fingers crossed that he makes it through the offseason without backsliding, but if he does, he could be the best wide receiver in the NFL again.
Mary Kay hallucinates a "pressing need" at wide receiver because the quarterback can't find or hit them, and despite the fact that Duke Johnson can line up there as well.
However, the depth is questionable, even if you're willing to cut Rashard Higgins some slack. You worry about Gordon sailing off the edge of the Earth, Coleman breaking his hand yet again etc.
I do like the idea of re-signing Terrelle Pryor dirt-cheap again, and going after a Jarvis Landry, and drafting one on day two for that matter.
I don't think Landry makes it out of Miami, however.
Well I guess that's it! Let's tighten this up some for clarity:
Pressing Needs: Quarterback, quarterback, quarterback.
Priorities: Cornerback, edge-rusher, wide receiver, running back.
Desirable: Another Joe Thomas protege, best available players.
I need to explain the running back listing: As I've mentioned, Isaiah Crowell is primed to escape the prison Hue Fisher stuffed him in ASAP, which will leave the Browns with Dayes and Duke.
I love both those guys, but they're not workhorses. Crowell, if used intelligently, could have been a 20-carry workhorse, but of course thanks to Hue that is not to be, and the Browns will need a new big, strong guy to replace him.
Called digression: A few observations from "wild card weekend" playoff games:
1: All of these teams kept hammering up the A-gaps with power runs and getting stuffed as often as not. I've probably been too hard on Hue Jackson...nah! Because NONE of them quit trying to run at all til they actually were well and truly in comeback mode (and they all had GOOD quarterbacks!)
2: Most of these teams, including those with "committees" designated and stuck with a lead-back, and tried to wear the opposing defense down with him in the trenches.
End of digression.
The reporting of the Browns draft picks has been superficial.
They do have five picks in the top two rounds, but the top third round pick is almost a second round pick, and that matters. Actually they have six top 65 draft picks. Why do you dismiss a just barely not second round pick like that? Do you know how many Pro Bowl guards, running backs, wide receivers, def...well just how can you not include that pick?
Really, if Dorsey nails all of them (statistically barely possible no matter how good you are), he gets an eventual "franchise" quarterback, an eventual upper-end left tackle, and three new very talented starters or rotational players with great upside. (See how I left one out? That's the one Dorsey almost has to "miss").
That would be awesome, but free agency could be even awesomer if Dorsey lands Alex Smith, a top tier veteran cornerback, and let's say a Terrelle Pryor and a really reliable wide receiver (conceivably a scary edge-rusher, but probably not, because nobody wants to give them up).
To revisit runnning back, here I go again: Forget about Ebeneezer Belle and every other overpriced, beat up, descending NFL veteran.
The Browns' next "workhorse" running back will be cheap and fresh, because he will be drafted in 2018.
As I've said every year, drafting a running back in the top five is generally dumb, because stud running backs historically come from everywhere.
But based on my experts' (not to mention my clan's) consensus opinions this year, Saquon Barkley is the exception, and I remain adament that Dorsey draft him fourth overall if he can (and that's final for now).
All the experts are all over this guy in a way they haven't been since Adrian Peterson.
Now, Adrian Peterson was the next Jim Brown, but the game has changed since AP was drafted, and continues to evolve.
Ever heard of Todd Gurley, LeShaun McCoy, Ebeneezer Belle?
Barkley has already proven that he's that swiss army back, and he's 5'10", crowding 230 lbs. The scouts and coaches don't have to project him as a receiver, as he's already fairly advanced.
Nitpickers are saying that he needs to improve as a passblocker, but that's all the negatives I've heard so far. (But stand by they'll dig up or invent more "negatives").
Barkley was sort of his team's whole offense. He blasted through predesignated holes for smashmouth yardage, along with everything else.
I've compared him to Duke Johnson, and that's absolutely valid. But he has at least 16 lbs, one inch, and .4 seconds on Duke, which makes him "Super-Duke".
Count on Hue Lewis lobbying Ken Dorsey for Saquon Barkley, because he'd upgrade the whole offense instantly and dramaticly, and even DeShone Kizer already knows how to throw to him!
Much as I've bashed Hue, it seems to me that one thing he might do with Duke and Saquon is run more 2-back, except put Duke in the slot more (like he already has; Duke was the slot receiver a whole lot initially, and did a great job at it too!)
Barkley is a home-run hitter who can out-sprint most NFL safeties and cornerbacks. His 40 time is expected to be in the low 4's, but his long speed is more important here, and we won't see that at the combine.
So I concur with my clan that Mayfield or Darnold and Barkley would be the ideal combination at 1 and 4.
If you were Alex Smith, would you be afraid to play behind this offensive line with Gordon, Barkley, Duke, Corey Coleman, and Njoku around you?
If not well...we know you're no Alex Smith, right?
Alex Smith is a brain, you see:
He might think "Is there a Kelce here?" He'll check out Njoku, and decide there's not a Kelce YET, but then go over the tapes and see how many times Kizer overlooked or missed him, and check out DeValve as well, and decide he'll have something to work with here.
"Where is my microbe big play receiver who drops half the passes I throw to him?" He won't find him, either, but he'll like Corey Coleman even better, since he will actually catch more passes thrown to him, and is just as lethal.
"Where is my Kareem Hunt?" Saquon Barkley case closed!
"Where is my...errummm....?"
Josh Gordon. Wow I got Josh Gordon too!?! And Duke Johnson?
Kirk Cousins might let his agent and superstitions do his "thinking" for him, but Alex Smith thinks like ME (ie thinks, period), so he'll take the Cleveland Browns seriously...especially if they draft Barkley!
When Ken Dorsey was first hired, Mary Kay Cabbott couldn't wait to predict that he would release a whole bunch of players.
Let's start with the safeties: At free, those were Jabrill Peppers and Kai Nacua. As I've noted, Gregg Williams runs every coverage there is, and this high center-fielder "angel" position is played less than 25% of the time.
Peppers underperformed early at the unfamiliar position, but gradually improved with repetition. Nacua never even got an opportunity until late in the season, when Peppers was injured.
He played well enough while filling in that Williams kept using him after Peppers' return.
Peppers didn't get his first interception until his last game. Overall, their efforts were unacceptable. Nobody denies that. But you can't base a player's projected performance on his rookie season (unless he's a running back).
Players make big leaps over the offseasons between their first and second, and then their second and third seasons. These "leaps" continue after that, but the growth curve flattens out.
For some of my peeps and perhaps Mary Kay, the book is already closed on Nacua and Peppers, and they're anxious to replace them, just when Williams and company are expecting them to return as much-improved veteran players.
While an Ed Reed would be an undeniable upgrade, free safety will not be considered a priority need. Peppers is bigger, quicker, faster, and even smarter than most NFL free safeties, and Gregg Williams is not being "stubborn".
At strong safety, Derrick Kindred will return from IR. He was having an All-Pro season when he went down with sacks, tackles for losses, and even in coverage. He was one of the brightest spots on the whole defense.
Justin Currie is also a pretty good player, especially in coverage. The Browns don't need a strong safety at all.
Now if you look at Ourlad's Depth Chart, you'll see that safeties are safeties (no "f" or "s" prefix). That's partly because Gregg Williams can and will use whichever coverage schemes he has to based on his personnel.
Jason McCourty was among the best cornerbacks in the NFL, but he's almost 32. Brien Boddy-Calhoun, entering his third season, is certainly a proven winner. Howard Wilson was drafted last season, but was placed on IR before he could take the field. He was highly rated, and will have his opportunity in 2018.
Micheal Jordan was a pleasant surprise, but Jamar Taylor was just plain terrible. He's a veteran, and has no excuses. HE could be released.
You can't have too many cornerbacks, and Wilson has yet to prove anything, so cornerback will be a priority. Given the free agent market, a high-profile veteran could well be signed, along with at least one more in the draft.
The secondary overall looked worse than it was because Ogbah and Collins were lost, Garrett missed time, and opposing offenses were playing from ahead. Quarterbacks exploited soft coverage late with quick-hitters underneath.
The secondary didn't suck.
Picking on the linebackers isn't worth addressing. The Browns are all set there. Gregg Williams uses safeties at linebacker and sometimes uses one or two linebackers, and that matters.
Some will identify EDGE as a "pressing need". That's overstating it, but certainly Ogbah's replacements failed to generate enough heat, and Ogbah himself is no Garrett.
It's not truly a pressing need, but another scary edge-rusher would upgrade the whole defense, so that should be a priority.
Defensive tackle is...well there are too many of them! Amazing talent! Amazing depth!
To review, there are no real "pressing needs" on this defense, but cornerback and edge-rusher should be priorities, and (free) safety will be looked at.
The 2017 Browns defense had one major problem: The 2017 Browns offense.
The problems with the offense did include the offensive line once Big Joe went down. Spencer Drango went above and beyond in relief, but is nothing like Joe. Because the Browns needed to help him out, one tight end often had to act like a sixth offensive lineman, and was unavailable as a receiver or downfield blocker.
Joe will return in the spring, and with him, this projects as one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.
Left tackle could be a priority for the Browns. Roderick Johnson, a raw project, was drafted last season with an eye towards eventually replacing Big Joe, but like Howard Wilson, he has yet to prove anything, and no assumptions can be made about him.
I can skip a few steps here by jumping to quarterback. Quarterback was THE problem with the Browns offense. It was not any of the receivers once Coleman and Gordon returned. It was not the running backs or the tight ends. It was the quarterback, the quarterback, and the quarterback.
Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.
Obviously the Browns will draft one with the top pick and try to sign Smith or Cousins. Either of these veterans would instantly transform this same offense, with these same players, into a force to be reckoned with.
You have to THINK about this, just a little:
1: Receivers can't produce when balls sail over their heads or land in the dirt in front of them, or simply are not thrown at all. You are blaming the receivers for the quarterback. All of them get OPEN and have good hands. Go over some old tapes and you'll see it. Is he open? Was the ball catchable? Watch it!
2: Njoku was a rookie. Rookie tight ends rarely achieve much. OJ Howard couldn't catch up to Cameron Brate. Hunter Henry was still struggling. DeValve was a second year converted wide receiver who I gotta say improved drasticly as an in-line blocker later in the season.
3: Stop judging Corey Coleman for getting open all the time and not getting thrown to. Yes, he choked on that touchdown pass, but I almost can't blame him. He couldn't believe that pass was actually right TO him! He must have been disoriented and in shock. Coleman does NOT normally drop passes!
4: Josh Gordon is Josh Gordon. We have to keep our fingers crossed that he makes it through the offseason without backsliding, but if he does, he could be the best wide receiver in the NFL again.
Mary Kay hallucinates a "pressing need" at wide receiver because the quarterback can't find or hit them, and despite the fact that Duke Johnson can line up there as well.
However, the depth is questionable, even if you're willing to cut Rashard Higgins some slack. You worry about Gordon sailing off the edge of the Earth, Coleman breaking his hand yet again etc.
I do like the idea of re-signing Terrelle Pryor dirt-cheap again, and going after a Jarvis Landry, and drafting one on day two for that matter.
I don't think Landry makes it out of Miami, however.
Well I guess that's it! Let's tighten this up some for clarity:
Pressing Needs: Quarterback, quarterback, quarterback.
Priorities: Cornerback, edge-rusher, wide receiver, running back.
Desirable: Another Joe Thomas protege, best available players.
I need to explain the running back listing: As I've mentioned, Isaiah Crowell is primed to escape the prison Hue Fisher stuffed him in ASAP, which will leave the Browns with Dayes and Duke.
I love both those guys, but they're not workhorses. Crowell, if used intelligently, could have been a 20-carry workhorse, but of course thanks to Hue that is not to be, and the Browns will need a new big, strong guy to replace him.
Called digression: A few observations from "wild card weekend" playoff games:
1: All of these teams kept hammering up the A-gaps with power runs and getting stuffed as often as not. I've probably been too hard on Hue Jackson...nah! Because NONE of them quit trying to run at all til they actually were well and truly in comeback mode (and they all had GOOD quarterbacks!)
2: Most of these teams, including those with "committees" designated and stuck with a lead-back, and tried to wear the opposing defense down with him in the trenches.
End of digression.
The reporting of the Browns draft picks has been superficial.
They do have five picks in the top two rounds, but the top third round pick is almost a second round pick, and that matters. Actually they have six top 65 draft picks. Why do you dismiss a just barely not second round pick like that? Do you know how many Pro Bowl guards, running backs, wide receivers, def...well just how can you not include that pick?
Really, if Dorsey nails all of them (statistically barely possible no matter how good you are), he gets an eventual "franchise" quarterback, an eventual upper-end left tackle, and three new very talented starters or rotational players with great upside. (See how I left one out? That's the one Dorsey almost has to "miss").
That would be awesome, but free agency could be even awesomer if Dorsey lands Alex Smith, a top tier veteran cornerback, and let's say a Terrelle Pryor and a really reliable wide receiver (conceivably a scary edge-rusher, but probably not, because nobody wants to give them up).
To revisit runnning back, here I go again: Forget about Ebeneezer Belle and every other overpriced, beat up, descending NFL veteran.
The Browns' next "workhorse" running back will be cheap and fresh, because he will be drafted in 2018.
As I've said every year, drafting a running back in the top five is generally dumb, because stud running backs historically come from everywhere.
But based on my experts' (not to mention my clan's) consensus opinions this year, Saquon Barkley is the exception, and I remain adament that Dorsey draft him fourth overall if he can (and that's final for now).
All the experts are all over this guy in a way they haven't been since Adrian Peterson.
Now, Adrian Peterson was the next Jim Brown, but the game has changed since AP was drafted, and continues to evolve.
Ever heard of Todd Gurley, LeShaun McCoy, Ebeneezer Belle?
Barkley has already proven that he's that swiss army back, and he's 5'10", crowding 230 lbs. The scouts and coaches don't have to project him as a receiver, as he's already fairly advanced.
Nitpickers are saying that he needs to improve as a passblocker, but that's all the negatives I've heard so far. (But stand by they'll dig up or invent more "negatives").
Barkley was sort of his team's whole offense. He blasted through predesignated holes for smashmouth yardage, along with everything else.
I've compared him to Duke Johnson, and that's absolutely valid. But he has at least 16 lbs, one inch, and .4 seconds on Duke, which makes him "Super-Duke".
Count on Hue Lewis lobbying Ken Dorsey for Saquon Barkley, because he'd upgrade the whole offense instantly and dramaticly, and even DeShone Kizer already knows how to throw to him!
Much as I've bashed Hue, it seems to me that one thing he might do with Duke and Saquon is run more 2-back, except put Duke in the slot more (like he already has; Duke was the slot receiver a whole lot initially, and did a great job at it too!)
Barkley is a home-run hitter who can out-sprint most NFL safeties and cornerbacks. His 40 time is expected to be in the low 4's, but his long speed is more important here, and we won't see that at the combine.
So I concur with my clan that Mayfield or Darnold and Barkley would be the ideal combination at 1 and 4.
If you were Alex Smith, would you be afraid to play behind this offensive line with Gordon, Barkley, Duke, Corey Coleman, and Njoku around you?
If not well...we know you're no Alex Smith, right?
Alex Smith is a brain, you see:
He might think "Is there a Kelce here?" He'll check out Njoku, and decide there's not a Kelce YET, but then go over the tapes and see how many times Kizer overlooked or missed him, and check out DeValve as well, and decide he'll have something to work with here.
"Where is my microbe big play receiver who drops half the passes I throw to him?" He won't find him, either, but he'll like Corey Coleman even better, since he will actually catch more passes thrown to him, and is just as lethal.
"Where is my Kareem Hunt?" Saquon Barkley case closed!
"Where is my...errummm....?"
Josh Gordon. Wow I got Josh Gordon too!?! And Duke Johnson?
Kirk Cousins might let his agent and superstitions do his "thinking" for him, but Alex Smith thinks like ME (ie thinks, period), so he'll take the Cleveland Browns seriously...especially if they draft Barkley!
Sunday, January 7, 2018
Veteran Quarterbacks and the Browns
Mary Kay Cabbott continues to regard Andy Dalton's backup, A J McCarron, in extra-high esteem.
The (fortunately) failed trade during the season for McCarron would have accomplished little, except possibly to avoid that first overall pick. Now, things have changed, and acquiring McCarron could make sense.
No veteran quarterback likes the idea of keeping a chair warm for a first overall draft pick. Even if they feel confident they can stay ahead of the kid, Coaches will often start the young guy anyway.
Further, Smith and Cousins will command high end starting money (a note on that: Cousins is expected to be paid 25 million, because two consecutive franchise tags have pushed his starting salary up there. There is no rule which says he has to be paid that much. He will be paid as much as he is offered. Period. He is a really good quarterback, but you can't be paying him more than Brees, Rodgers, Ben, Brady etc. simply because his last salary was massively overinflated.)
Anyway, A J McCarron has a lot less leverage, especially in this particular offseason. He's much younger, and has the high floor of a solid quarterback. Rather than displace DeShone Kizer by default, A J would actually compete with him for the starting role (and competition is good for everybody).
McCarron has some physical "limitations" like this Keenum guy in Minnesota (I can't help smiling when I read about half inches and an inability to launch bombs from his knees--it gets just rediculous after awhile).
This guy won a National Championship, however. He's started fewer NFL games than Kizer, but has been in the NFL much longer, and has more college starts, at a higher level, so he's actually a vetted veteran.
Given the tools he'll have in this offense, and this offensive line, McCarron can at least manage a game and distribute the ball.
Speaking of tools, Mary Kay doubts that they would draft Barkley at 4th overall. She never said why. To me, that just doesn't make sense. He's a Todd Gurley/Laveon Belle type Swiss Army weapon c'mon man! I wouldn't take a "running back" that high, but would sure as hell take HIM!
Mary Kay thinks the Browns should re-sign Terrelle Pryor, and I'm okay with that. Terrelle has lost ALL his leverage, and would be very cheap!
I've itemized his limitations: He can't make the kind of explosive breaks that Josh Gordon can; he's more a track star than a football player. But he's (extra)- tall, fast, has really good hands, is smart, and knows the system. There would certainly be a role for him here (including wild cat/emergency quarterback).
Mary Kay also thinks they should take a stab at Jarvis Landry. My kneejerk reaction was to wonder how many wide receivers she thinks we need to stuff into this suitcase, but I can't argue, as Landry is possibly the most reliable receiver in the NFL. Like a lot of players, he doesn't get enough credit, because he only makes big "splash" plays every second or third week. Out of highlight reels, out of mind.
...Damn I had intended to pick on Mary Kay, but find myself agreeing with her. How disorientationalizing! Still, she labels wide receiver as a "pressing need", which is dumb, so...
On to the wallowing in misery temper-tantrum parade: What a joke. Joe Haden said it best: "Lame". Have fun you buncha gomers. Even Black Cloud is laughing at them. "Awkward" is also a good word for this bizarre excersize in...whatever tf it is.
I'm watching Alex Smith and the Chiefs beating up on the Titans, and thanks to a clanmember, I'm re-thinking my assertion that Cousins and Smith would want no part of Hue Jackson sans an offensive coordinator from the Reid or Shanahan trees.
Reid's offense actually looks similar to Hue's! I may well have been fulla crap on this all along! The Crow/athletic offensive line/zone-blocking stuff is all still valid, but the "West Coast passing" stuff might be totally invalid! Cousins or Smith might be perfectly willing to play for Hue Jackson!
Maybe I should organize a Parade to celebrate how biased and ignorant I may have been! But first, I need to review some of the season to confirm it.
I haven't seen much West Coast stuff at all out of KC in this game. I only watched the Browns, mostly, and just knew that Reid was a "West Coast" guy, and Smith was a "West Coast" quarterback. Garbage in, garbage out!
Yes ok how much do parade permits cost? Do you need more than 3 people for a Parade? Does anybody need to know you exist?
Anyway I've seen Tyreek Hill drop at least two passes, so the Browns have that covered. Smith has, as far as I've seen, has not thrown even ONE cross, and few slants (except to Kelce). Most of his passes have been vertical, at every range.
TIMING is there in most cases, but (when he can), Smith waits (not the same as "hesitates") to launch one deep.
I'll be damned!!! Put Alex Smith on the Browns during 2017 and there's no telling how many more games the preschool baby Browns would have won! (Oh yeah did I mention that Smith hits what he aims at? You see this matters a little ok?)
Let's compare Smith's "weapons" in KC to those he'd have in Cleveland (before the draft and free agency):
Corey Coleman vs Tyreek Hill: Obviously Hill has a big edge here so far, except Hill is actually still ahead of Coleman in dropped passes, and Coleman is much bigger and younger.
Josh Gordon vs nobody: The Chiefs don't have anybody like Gordon.
Travis Kelce vs Njoku: Here again, there is no comparison to date. Njoku has proven nothing by comparison, but is an athletic match for Kelce, and WILL BE at least "pretty good" in his S E C O N D NFL season.
Hunt vs Duke (I guess). Duke loses here, because he's not a big strong guy like Hunt, and I don't think he has the same long speed either.
Assume Crowell runs away from Hue screaming "free at last!"
The Chiefs just lost. I know that somewhere, somebody will find some way to blame Alex Smith for it. But Smith came through, repeatedly, with clutch pinpoint passes.
Which were dropped.
Although Smith is older, I kind of prefer him to Cousins for the Browns. This whole rediculous "Cousins's last year's salary is the baseline for his next contract regardless of where he ranks among current quarterbacks" stuff is probably emanating from Cousins' agent, and the Dorsey shouldn't be the sucker who falls for it.
Smith is better than Cousins, too.
Well, now we got some KC coaches shaking loose, so let's see if something happens on the offensive assistant front!
The (fortunately) failed trade during the season for McCarron would have accomplished little, except possibly to avoid that first overall pick. Now, things have changed, and acquiring McCarron could make sense.
No veteran quarterback likes the idea of keeping a chair warm for a first overall draft pick. Even if they feel confident they can stay ahead of the kid, Coaches will often start the young guy anyway.
Further, Smith and Cousins will command high end starting money (a note on that: Cousins is expected to be paid 25 million, because two consecutive franchise tags have pushed his starting salary up there. There is no rule which says he has to be paid that much. He will be paid as much as he is offered. Period. He is a really good quarterback, but you can't be paying him more than Brees, Rodgers, Ben, Brady etc. simply because his last salary was massively overinflated.)
Anyway, A J McCarron has a lot less leverage, especially in this particular offseason. He's much younger, and has the high floor of a solid quarterback. Rather than displace DeShone Kizer by default, A J would actually compete with him for the starting role (and competition is good for everybody).
McCarron has some physical "limitations" like this Keenum guy in Minnesota (I can't help smiling when I read about half inches and an inability to launch bombs from his knees--it gets just rediculous after awhile).
This guy won a National Championship, however. He's started fewer NFL games than Kizer, but has been in the NFL much longer, and has more college starts, at a higher level, so he's actually a vetted veteran.
Given the tools he'll have in this offense, and this offensive line, McCarron can at least manage a game and distribute the ball.
Speaking of tools, Mary Kay doubts that they would draft Barkley at 4th overall. She never said why. To me, that just doesn't make sense. He's a Todd Gurley/Laveon Belle type Swiss Army weapon c'mon man! I wouldn't take a "running back" that high, but would sure as hell take HIM!
Mary Kay thinks the Browns should re-sign Terrelle Pryor, and I'm okay with that. Terrelle has lost ALL his leverage, and would be very cheap!
I've itemized his limitations: He can't make the kind of explosive breaks that Josh Gordon can; he's more a track star than a football player. But he's (extra)- tall, fast, has really good hands, is smart, and knows the system. There would certainly be a role for him here (including wild cat/emergency quarterback).
Mary Kay also thinks they should take a stab at Jarvis Landry. My kneejerk reaction was to wonder how many wide receivers she thinks we need to stuff into this suitcase, but I can't argue, as Landry is possibly the most reliable receiver in the NFL. Like a lot of players, he doesn't get enough credit, because he only makes big "splash" plays every second or third week. Out of highlight reels, out of mind.
...Damn I had intended to pick on Mary Kay, but find myself agreeing with her. How disorientationalizing! Still, she labels wide receiver as a "pressing need", which is dumb, so...
On to the wallowing in misery temper-tantrum parade: What a joke. Joe Haden said it best: "Lame". Have fun you buncha gomers. Even Black Cloud is laughing at them. "Awkward" is also a good word for this bizarre excersize in...whatever tf it is.
I'm watching Alex Smith and the Chiefs beating up on the Titans, and thanks to a clanmember, I'm re-thinking my assertion that Cousins and Smith would want no part of Hue Jackson sans an offensive coordinator from the Reid or Shanahan trees.
Reid's offense actually looks similar to Hue's! I may well have been fulla crap on this all along! The Crow/athletic offensive line/zone-blocking stuff is all still valid, but the "West Coast passing" stuff might be totally invalid! Cousins or Smith might be perfectly willing to play for Hue Jackson!
Maybe I should organize a Parade to celebrate how biased and ignorant I may have been! But first, I need to review some of the season to confirm it.
I haven't seen much West Coast stuff at all out of KC in this game. I only watched the Browns, mostly, and just knew that Reid was a "West Coast" guy, and Smith was a "West Coast" quarterback. Garbage in, garbage out!
Yes ok how much do parade permits cost? Do you need more than 3 people for a Parade? Does anybody need to know you exist?
Anyway I've seen Tyreek Hill drop at least two passes, so the Browns have that covered. Smith has, as far as I've seen, has not thrown even ONE cross, and few slants (except to Kelce). Most of his passes have been vertical, at every range.
TIMING is there in most cases, but (when he can), Smith waits (not the same as "hesitates") to launch one deep.
I'll be damned!!! Put Alex Smith on the Browns during 2017 and there's no telling how many more games the preschool baby Browns would have won! (Oh yeah did I mention that Smith hits what he aims at? You see this matters a little ok?)
Let's compare Smith's "weapons" in KC to those he'd have in Cleveland (before the draft and free agency):
Corey Coleman vs Tyreek Hill: Obviously Hill has a big edge here so far, except Hill is actually still ahead of Coleman in dropped passes, and Coleman is much bigger and younger.
Josh Gordon vs nobody: The Chiefs don't have anybody like Gordon.
Travis Kelce vs Njoku: Here again, there is no comparison to date. Njoku has proven nothing by comparison, but is an athletic match for Kelce, and WILL BE at least "pretty good" in his S E C O N D NFL season.
Hunt vs Duke (I guess). Duke loses here, because he's not a big strong guy like Hunt, and I don't think he has the same long speed either.
Assume Crowell runs away from Hue screaming "free at last!"
The Chiefs just lost. I know that somewhere, somebody will find some way to blame Alex Smith for it. But Smith came through, repeatedly, with clutch pinpoint passes.
Which were dropped.
Although Smith is older, I kind of prefer him to Cousins for the Browns. This whole rediculous "Cousins's last year's salary is the baseline for his next contract regardless of where he ranks among current quarterbacks" stuff is probably emanating from Cousins' agent, and the Dorsey shouldn't be the sucker who falls for it.
Smith is better than Cousins, too.
Well, now we got some KC coaches shaking loose, so let's see if something happens on the offensive assistant front!
Friday, January 5, 2018
Reality, Obectivity, Rationality, and the Browns
This is great because among the people I get to call knuckleheads and hockey pucks today are my clan. By that I mean the male members of my extended family🤔.
Without naming names, first up is "The Browns need a safety in the worst way!":
Now, you could have left out the last part of that sentence and not get clobbered for it, but as usual you had to go overboard:
1:Kai Nacua and Jabrill Peppers were both rookies. Jabrill had actually not played free safety in college, either, and was literally learning a new position. He is more physically gifted than most starting free safeties.
It is idiotic to assume that Nacua and Peppers will not take the typical, predictable "big leap" that most players do upon graduating from their R O O K I E seasons.
2: Gregg Williams ran cover one, cover two, and cover three among others. Peppers was not in the deep middle much over 20% of the time. If a true center fielder is not on this team as you ass ume, it's still less of a priority for Gregg Williams than it is for you.
3: Peppers and Nacua did not suck, and they made progress over the course of their first, rookie, NFL seasons. I haven't seen the PFF numbers yet, but I'd expect them to be around average, and higher in the last four games of their first, rookie, NFL seasons.
Next up, "The secondary sucks": Well, if you look at raw stats and decide stuff based on that...and ignore pressures, sacks, game situations, you could leap to that conclusion in order to avoid thinking more than is comfortable.
Sorry. Not around me.
1: Jason McCourty was among the highest-rated cornerbacks in the NFL. Brien Boddy-Calhoun also graded out quite well. And allow me to introduce you to this Derrick Kindred guy. I know you forgot he existed and will be back in 2018 a couple weeks after he hit IR, but up until then he was to strong safeties what McCourty was to cornerbacks. If you're counting, that's three players, if you keep Peppers separate.
2: The Browns offense found ways to make sure the Browns had to play from behind for most of the year. That meant that opposing offenses had their whole playbooks available to them, because even Williams couldn't pin his ears back and risk the run. Opposing quarterbacks had more time after Ogbah and Collins bit the dust as well, and the raw stats don't separate linebacker from DB coverage either.
3: Emmanuel Ogbah and Jamie Collins joined Derrick Kindred on IR.
Now, you can buttress your ill-founded case on the poor individual performance of Jamar Taylor if you want, but you can't sensibly grade this secondary off one player STICK A FORK IN YOURSELF YOU'RE DONE.
Fortunately, Black Cloud wasn't in on the textfest, or I'd have a sload more crap to shovel.
My clan sort of alerted me to this Saquon Barkley dude as a prospect at 4th overall (assuming a quarterback is drafted first).
Running back should not be a need for the Cleveland Browns, but thanks to the fact that Isaiah Crowell will take LESS money to get tf away from Hue Lewis, it actually is.
But need aside, the consensus among all the biggest experts ranks Barkley as the first or second best player in this draft, and Daniel Jeremiah sees him as the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson (better than Zeke Elliott).
Here is one of many (unvetted) early scouting reports on Barkley. Unlike Isaiah Crowell, Barkley fits Hue Fisher's "my way or the highway" offense as well as he does a zone-blocking scheme.
With his already refined receiving skills (among other things), Barkley looks like a bigger, faster, and even quicker Duke Johnson. As we have seen, Duke has been highly productive under Hue Lewis, and it's reasonable to assume that Hue wouldn't waste him like he wasted Crowell.
Barkley is a home-run threat in a way that Duke or Crow are not. If THIS guy gets behind the linebackers with 60 yards to go, it's less likely that he can be overtaken from behind.
Rumor has it that the Giants will draft Barkley second overall, and that's possible. They'll be getting Beckham back and have a weapon at tight end, and could make some noise in 2018.
However, those who think that Eli Manning will outlast his brother are delusional, and the Giants are stuck with Wentz and the Eagles, and the Cowboys, and a smart GM takes the quarterback, since (in reality), the addition of Barkley in 2018 would NOT win that division, and probably not a wild card berth...but would guarantee drafting outside the top 10 in 2019.
The next New York Giants "window" is not 2018, and might not re-open before Eli Manning retires or is pounded out. The Eagles and Cowboys are just warming up, and that GM has to deal with that. He needs Manning's understudy right now, while he has the chance, because Barkley would guarantee he'll never get another one.
For that matter, what tf is wrong with Orleans Darkwa!?!
But I digress. I just think that kneejerk thoughtless spastic speculations aside, the Browns drafting Barkley 4th overall is more likely than not, and I concur with my clan (well maybe except for Black Cloud, who will compare him to Trent Richardson or something when he gets around to it)
Now, with all this massive cap space available to Ken Dorsey, all the pundits are eager to spend it all ASAP.
The most common/dumbest speculation is Ebenneezer Belle. Prior to this season, Belle refused to accept a contract extension from the Pittsburgh Steelers which amounted to starting quarterback money.
How much now, after the season he just had? 20 million/year? 30? 50? Who cares right? Just pay him whatever he wants right?
Why tf would you bend over for this much older, more beat up player, when you can draft Barkley (and lock him up for five years) for a fraction of Ebeneezer's cost!?!
Some of the other suggested free agent targets are pretty good, as they're not washed up overpriced "names", and are young enough to fit Paul DePodesta's long-term plan (which Dorsey is logically forced to follow).
The best two are Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith. (One clown said Case Keenum. Actually I like that too.
The biggest two reasons for the Browns going 0-16 were the quarterbacks and Hue Fisher. That is a fact...well okay the third reason behind those was youth/inexperience, which will TAKE CARE OF ITSELF DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Right now, I guarantee you that Ken Dorsey is pressuring Hue Lewis to hire an offensive coordinator from the Reid (Holmgren/Walsh) coaching tree, or even from the Shanahan area, and will be pushing to give the new guy as much authority as possible on-paper.
This is the ONLY way that Smith or Cousins would sign with the Browns, I'm telling you!
Hue Fisher isn't an idiot. He knowns he's hanging on by a thread, and that if he doesn't cooperate, Haslam can effectively end his Head Coaching carreer despite his (imo stupid) guarantee that he'd be retained.
There IS hope here! If the new offensive "playcaller" is actually an offensive coordinator who is adaptable, or at least not allergic to West Coast principles, Smith and Cousins would consider signing with the Browns.
Trading for Alex Smith is not an option, by the way. He's going into the last year of his contract, and a team dumb enough to trade for him would either have to rent him for one season or extend him off that 20 mil-plus anchor.
KC has cap issues, and Dorsey drafted Mahomes because of them. Everybody in the NFL knows that KC will have to cut Alex Smith, and will wait for the auction.
Cousins is only a little different. The Redskins imo mishandled him, and are out of options. His salary is already rediculous, even given his production. And he's probably disgruntled over being franchise-tagged twice, rather than signed long-term for less than it's already cost the team.
It's possible that he'll re-sign with the Redskins, but certain that he will explore every other option first.
Now, try to comprehend this. Read this very slowly:
If the 2017 Browns had had a Cousins or Smith at quarterback, along with a flexible, adaptable offensive coordinator, they would have won a LOT more games.
Gordon would have actually caught more passes, since more would be catchABLE. Ditto Njoku, DeValve, and (yes) Coleman. And by the way, who among these have you decided are NOT exceptional players?
I need to point out Rashard Higgins here btw: He's improved a LOT, and even if you still think he's "just a guy", how tf can you call wide receiver a NEED?
Pearls before swine.
It's not that complicated, ok? If you are open, you are open. If the pass is uncatchable or doesn't come, it's uncatchable or doesn't come. If you are a rookie, you are still learning (and making mistakes).
It's amazing how pundits and box-score warriors brush all of this, plus youth, recency, coaching etc aside so they can call the Browns secondary a train wreck, and declare free safety an urgent need, and treat Collins, Kindred, and Ogbah as if they never existed...
I'm too kerphlemp to go on...talk amongst yourselves
Without naming names, first up is "The Browns need a safety in the worst way!":
Now, you could have left out the last part of that sentence and not get clobbered for it, but as usual you had to go overboard:
1:Kai Nacua and Jabrill Peppers were both rookies. Jabrill had actually not played free safety in college, either, and was literally learning a new position. He is more physically gifted than most starting free safeties.
It is idiotic to assume that Nacua and Peppers will not take the typical, predictable "big leap" that most players do upon graduating from their R O O K I E seasons.
2: Gregg Williams ran cover one, cover two, and cover three among others. Peppers was not in the deep middle much over 20% of the time. If a true center fielder is not on this team as you ass ume, it's still less of a priority for Gregg Williams than it is for you.
3: Peppers and Nacua did not suck, and they made progress over the course of their first, rookie, NFL seasons. I haven't seen the PFF numbers yet, but I'd expect them to be around average, and higher in the last four games of their first, rookie, NFL seasons.
Next up, "The secondary sucks": Well, if you look at raw stats and decide stuff based on that...and ignore pressures, sacks, game situations, you could leap to that conclusion in order to avoid thinking more than is comfortable.
Sorry. Not around me.
1: Jason McCourty was among the highest-rated cornerbacks in the NFL. Brien Boddy-Calhoun also graded out quite well. And allow me to introduce you to this Derrick Kindred guy. I know you forgot he existed and will be back in 2018 a couple weeks after he hit IR, but up until then he was to strong safeties what McCourty was to cornerbacks. If you're counting, that's three players, if you keep Peppers separate.
2: The Browns offense found ways to make sure the Browns had to play from behind for most of the year. That meant that opposing offenses had their whole playbooks available to them, because even Williams couldn't pin his ears back and risk the run. Opposing quarterbacks had more time after Ogbah and Collins bit the dust as well, and the raw stats don't separate linebacker from DB coverage either.
3: Emmanuel Ogbah and Jamie Collins joined Derrick Kindred on IR.
Now, you can buttress your ill-founded case on the poor individual performance of Jamar Taylor if you want, but you can't sensibly grade this secondary off one player STICK A FORK IN YOURSELF YOU'RE DONE.
Fortunately, Black Cloud wasn't in on the textfest, or I'd have a sload more crap to shovel.
My clan sort of alerted me to this Saquon Barkley dude as a prospect at 4th overall (assuming a quarterback is drafted first).
Running back should not be a need for the Cleveland Browns, but thanks to the fact that Isaiah Crowell will take LESS money to get tf away from Hue Lewis, it actually is.
But need aside, the consensus among all the biggest experts ranks Barkley as the first or second best player in this draft, and Daniel Jeremiah sees him as the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson (better than Zeke Elliott).
Here is one of many (unvetted) early scouting reports on Barkley. Unlike Isaiah Crowell, Barkley fits Hue Fisher's "my way or the highway" offense as well as he does a zone-blocking scheme.
With his already refined receiving skills (among other things), Barkley looks like a bigger, faster, and even quicker Duke Johnson. As we have seen, Duke has been highly productive under Hue Lewis, and it's reasonable to assume that Hue wouldn't waste him like he wasted Crowell.
Barkley is a home-run threat in a way that Duke or Crow are not. If THIS guy gets behind the linebackers with 60 yards to go, it's less likely that he can be overtaken from behind.
Rumor has it that the Giants will draft Barkley second overall, and that's possible. They'll be getting Beckham back and have a weapon at tight end, and could make some noise in 2018.
However, those who think that Eli Manning will outlast his brother are delusional, and the Giants are stuck with Wentz and the Eagles, and the Cowboys, and a smart GM takes the quarterback, since (in reality), the addition of Barkley in 2018 would NOT win that division, and probably not a wild card berth...but would guarantee drafting outside the top 10 in 2019.
The next New York Giants "window" is not 2018, and might not re-open before Eli Manning retires or is pounded out. The Eagles and Cowboys are just warming up, and that GM has to deal with that. He needs Manning's understudy right now, while he has the chance, because Barkley would guarantee he'll never get another one.
For that matter, what tf is wrong with Orleans Darkwa!?!
But I digress. I just think that kneejerk thoughtless spastic speculations aside, the Browns drafting Barkley 4th overall is more likely than not, and I concur with my clan (well maybe except for Black Cloud, who will compare him to Trent Richardson or something when he gets around to it)
Now, with all this massive cap space available to Ken Dorsey, all the pundits are eager to spend it all ASAP.
The most common/dumbest speculation is Ebenneezer Belle. Prior to this season, Belle refused to accept a contract extension from the Pittsburgh Steelers which amounted to starting quarterback money.
How much now, after the season he just had? 20 million/year? 30? 50? Who cares right? Just pay him whatever he wants right?
Why tf would you bend over for this much older, more beat up player, when you can draft Barkley (and lock him up for five years) for a fraction of Ebeneezer's cost!?!
Some of the other suggested free agent targets are pretty good, as they're not washed up overpriced "names", and are young enough to fit Paul DePodesta's long-term plan (which Dorsey is logically forced to follow).
The best two are Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith. (One clown said Case Keenum. Actually I like that too.
The biggest two reasons for the Browns going 0-16 were the quarterbacks and Hue Fisher. That is a fact...well okay the third reason behind those was youth/inexperience, which will TAKE CARE OF ITSELF DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Right now, I guarantee you that Ken Dorsey is pressuring Hue Lewis to hire an offensive coordinator from the Reid (Holmgren/Walsh) coaching tree, or even from the Shanahan area, and will be pushing to give the new guy as much authority as possible on-paper.
This is the ONLY way that Smith or Cousins would sign with the Browns, I'm telling you!
Hue Fisher isn't an idiot. He knowns he's hanging on by a thread, and that if he doesn't cooperate, Haslam can effectively end his Head Coaching carreer despite his (imo stupid) guarantee that he'd be retained.
There IS hope here! If the new offensive "playcaller" is actually an offensive coordinator who is adaptable, or at least not allergic to West Coast principles, Smith and Cousins would consider signing with the Browns.
Trading for Alex Smith is not an option, by the way. He's going into the last year of his contract, and a team dumb enough to trade for him would either have to rent him for one season or extend him off that 20 mil-plus anchor.
KC has cap issues, and Dorsey drafted Mahomes because of them. Everybody in the NFL knows that KC will have to cut Alex Smith, and will wait for the auction.
Cousins is only a little different. The Redskins imo mishandled him, and are out of options. His salary is already rediculous, even given his production. And he's probably disgruntled over being franchise-tagged twice, rather than signed long-term for less than it's already cost the team.
It's possible that he'll re-sign with the Redskins, but certain that he will explore every other option first.
Now, try to comprehend this. Read this very slowly:
If the 2017 Browns had had a Cousins or Smith at quarterback, along with a flexible, adaptable offensive coordinator, they would have won a LOT more games.
Gordon would have actually caught more passes, since more would be catchABLE. Ditto Njoku, DeValve, and (yes) Coleman. And by the way, who among these have you decided are NOT exceptional players?
I need to point out Rashard Higgins here btw: He's improved a LOT, and even if you still think he's "just a guy", how tf can you call wide receiver a NEED?
Pearls before swine.
It's not that complicated, ok? If you are open, you are open. If the pass is uncatchable or doesn't come, it's uncatchable or doesn't come. If you are a rookie, you are still learning (and making mistakes).
It's amazing how pundits and box-score warriors brush all of this, plus youth, recency, coaching etc aside so they can call the Browns secondary a train wreck, and declare free safety an urgent need, and treat Collins, Kindred, and Ogbah as if they never existed...
I'm too kerphlemp to go on...talk amongst yourselves
Monday, January 1, 2018
Baker Mayfield is Still for Real.
I'm watching the Rose Bowl so I can see Baker Mayfield under the lights, but I might see some other guys to draft in this game too. So far so good Mayfield looks real good standing around....
4 for 4 make that 5 for 5. 4 interemediates and a semi-lateral (WR). 2 completions to number 36 who should be a fullback or H-back. 12 or 13 yard TD pass to a WR.
2 crossers, 2 verticals. Beautiful accuracy, anticipation and touch. I have to agree with one scout so far, however: That must be a terrific offensive line, because Mayfield has had all day so far.
I forgot: The TD pass was set off by a really nice play-fake.
Fromm came right back! He's pretty good himself! I don't know if he's draftable but if he is somebody other than the Browns ought to check him out.
But he didn't complete 71% of his passes or 55+% over 15 yards so...
How SNEAKY! Third and long and Mayfield hands off left handed on a reverse playfake. The Bulldogs were so paranoid about the pass they were all back and the running back brought no vaseline, so to speak!
Now they just ran for another TD so it's not the Mayfield show at the moment, but I can tell you that Baker is a real good actor. I can't wait to see him trying to draw a roughing the passer penalty!
Mayfield has 38-39 starts. That's important. I see a quick decisive guy here. Lack of pressure is something to consider, but I don't think he's held the ball for even close to three seconds yet (I could be wrong). And he's as good on vertical routes with guys running away from him as he is on crosses and slants with them going right to left or vice-versa.
DAMN he's got a truly scary running game propping him up too! What was that a 30-yard handoff for a TD? I'll have to check out that running back, but that was mostly blocking! Gotta check out that Okie offensive line Sooner rather than later. "Sooner"? Get inevermind.
Bulldogs just did the same thing. Kenneth Murray number one that's a WR number--but again give the Dogs' big uglies credit there as well.
Ok just there I saw Mayfield check down and pull the trigger instantly to his really good tight end (in a crowd). That was really encouraging that's "processing speed". He hit a really tight window in time as well as space there, and NONE of the Browns last several quarterbacks...well they'd all STILL be standing there considering whether or not they should throw the damn ball ya no?
Oklahoma has a terrific offensive playcaller by the way!
AH! Guy in Mayfield's face and he flicks the ball away in like one second flat to the hot guy about 5 yards deep (he got some more yards). There's your "muddy pocket" stuff: Mayfield reacted well to pressure there.
Oops then he got sacked. It's okay he didn't have a chance. The Bulldogs are blitzing a lot inside now trying to blow up Mayfield and his running backs all at once. Good idea. Cool I want to see how Mayfield deals with it.
Nitpickers will pick at a pass "thrown behind" a wide receiver, but it was just barely behind him and very catchable. The drop was all on the receiver. It was a "high-point" crosser thown high to give the receiver an edge, and it was almost perfect ok?
Ok if you haven't seen this, check out the last two minutes of the first half. Yeah there was a trick play at the end and Mayfield caught a TD pass but I'm not talking about that.
During that whole drive, Mayfield was sending people in motion with specific hand-signals right before the snap (or not). Every time he does this, he's changing the called play based on what the defense is showing him.
I hadn't noticed this earlier, but on that touchdown drive he did it like 3 times in a row. It LOOKS like somebody screwed up and he's "getting them lined up right" at first glance, but it's really the way he changes plays. The signals are all the same, and are instantly obeyed (he looks like a dog trainer).
Based on his results, Mayfield is almost always right, too!
I'm standing by for the second half here, but Baker Mayfield is my Browns QB of the future, and that's final for now!
While I'm waiting, I really really need to compare this Baker Mayfield to DeShaun Watson. Think back to this time last year, and remember what everybody (including YOU maybe) were saying about this guy!
Short. Skinny frame. Too many picks. Inaccurate. Weak arm. Great supporting cast. Remember? No I MEAN it, you can't rewrite history here; you need to remember what people were saying about DeShaun Watson, and WHY he was drafted where he was, okay!?!
Well Mayfield is less than one inch shorter than Watson. I believe he has a stronger arm. He is solidly built, and might even outweigh Watson. He has more starts. He does NOT turn the ball over, and he's set records with his accuracy.
Ok it's over and Oklahoma lost. The Bulldogs scored a bunch of points and found ways to stifle Mayfield. With the lead (and therafter) including overtime, the Sooners ran excessively.
Im not bashing them for that, and would have done the same thing in this particular game. But we didn't get to see Mayfield trying to carry his team.
Baker threw a bad pass interception in the end zone IN O V E R T I M E which was wiped out by a penalty. Earlier, he threw another interception which you need to try to comprehend: This pass was on the money. The Sooners' heralded tight end had been knocked off-balance, so he couldn't jump for it like he was supposed to.
I now know that Mayfield kind of specializes in "jump balls". He deliberately throws high whenever he can, even to normal-sized receivers. If his receivers know it's coming and the defender doesn't, it gives the receiver an edge.
Review the tape. You'll see this all game long; guys leaping to high-point Mayfield passes. But if the guy can't make that leap, it's an easy pick if a safety is backing the play.
It's not that important. That's how Oklahoma's (really smart) Coaches make the most of the players they have. Mayfield went low and hard when he needed to as well.
Based on this one game, here is what you will be reading about Baker Mayfield:
1: Inaccurate on deep passes.
2: Marginal arm.
3: Falls apart in the clutch.
4: Can't deal with pressure.
This is idiotic, but I'm just giving you a sneak preview so you know who's an idiot when you read it.
Then Mayfield will kick ass at the Senior Bowl and these clowns will all change their minds.
It's too bad that unless Jimmy fires Hue...
That's okay. Based on what I saw tonight, this kid could start in Hue's offense as a rookie. He shouldn't, but since Cousins or Smith would not want to play for Hue, Mayfield would probably beat out Kizer...
And get beat up and lose at first.
Dammit.
4 for 4 make that 5 for 5. 4 interemediates and a semi-lateral (WR). 2 completions to number 36 who should be a fullback or H-back. 12 or 13 yard TD pass to a WR.
2 crossers, 2 verticals. Beautiful accuracy, anticipation and touch. I have to agree with one scout so far, however: That must be a terrific offensive line, because Mayfield has had all day so far.
I forgot: The TD pass was set off by a really nice play-fake.
Fromm came right back! He's pretty good himself! I don't know if he's draftable but if he is somebody other than the Browns ought to check him out.
But he didn't complete 71% of his passes or 55+% over 15 yards so...
How SNEAKY! Third and long and Mayfield hands off left handed on a reverse playfake. The Bulldogs were so paranoid about the pass they were all back and the running back brought no vaseline, so to speak!
Now they just ran for another TD so it's not the Mayfield show at the moment, but I can tell you that Baker is a real good actor. I can't wait to see him trying to draw a roughing the passer penalty!
Mayfield has 38-39 starts. That's important. I see a quick decisive guy here. Lack of pressure is something to consider, but I don't think he's held the ball for even close to three seconds yet (I could be wrong). And he's as good on vertical routes with guys running away from him as he is on crosses and slants with them going right to left or vice-versa.
DAMN he's got a truly scary running game propping him up too! What was that a 30-yard handoff for a TD? I'll have to check out that running back, but that was mostly blocking! Gotta check out that Okie offensive line Sooner rather than later. "Sooner"? Get inevermind.
Bulldogs just did the same thing. Kenneth Murray number one that's a WR number--but again give the Dogs' big uglies credit there as well.
Ok just there I saw Mayfield check down and pull the trigger instantly to his really good tight end (in a crowd). That was really encouraging that's "processing speed". He hit a really tight window in time as well as space there, and NONE of the Browns last several quarterbacks...well they'd all STILL be standing there considering whether or not they should throw the damn ball ya no?
Oklahoma has a terrific offensive playcaller by the way!
AH! Guy in Mayfield's face and he flicks the ball away in like one second flat to the hot guy about 5 yards deep (he got some more yards). There's your "muddy pocket" stuff: Mayfield reacted well to pressure there.
Oops then he got sacked. It's okay he didn't have a chance. The Bulldogs are blitzing a lot inside now trying to blow up Mayfield and his running backs all at once. Good idea. Cool I want to see how Mayfield deals with it.
Nitpickers will pick at a pass "thrown behind" a wide receiver, but it was just barely behind him and very catchable. The drop was all on the receiver. It was a "high-point" crosser thown high to give the receiver an edge, and it was almost perfect ok?
Ok if you haven't seen this, check out the last two minutes of the first half. Yeah there was a trick play at the end and Mayfield caught a TD pass but I'm not talking about that.
During that whole drive, Mayfield was sending people in motion with specific hand-signals right before the snap (or not). Every time he does this, he's changing the called play based on what the defense is showing him.
I hadn't noticed this earlier, but on that touchdown drive he did it like 3 times in a row. It LOOKS like somebody screwed up and he's "getting them lined up right" at first glance, but it's really the way he changes plays. The signals are all the same, and are instantly obeyed (he looks like a dog trainer).
Based on his results, Mayfield is almost always right, too!
I'm standing by for the second half here, but Baker Mayfield is my Browns QB of the future, and that's final for now!
While I'm waiting, I really really need to compare this Baker Mayfield to DeShaun Watson. Think back to this time last year, and remember what everybody (including YOU maybe) were saying about this guy!
Short. Skinny frame. Too many picks. Inaccurate. Weak arm. Great supporting cast. Remember? No I MEAN it, you can't rewrite history here; you need to remember what people were saying about DeShaun Watson, and WHY he was drafted where he was, okay!?!
Well Mayfield is less than one inch shorter than Watson. I believe he has a stronger arm. He is solidly built, and might even outweigh Watson. He has more starts. He does NOT turn the ball over, and he's set records with his accuracy.
Ok it's over and Oklahoma lost. The Bulldogs scored a bunch of points and found ways to stifle Mayfield. With the lead (and therafter) including overtime, the Sooners ran excessively.
Im not bashing them for that, and would have done the same thing in this particular game. But we didn't get to see Mayfield trying to carry his team.
Baker threw a bad pass interception in the end zone IN O V E R T I M E which was wiped out by a penalty. Earlier, he threw another interception which you need to try to comprehend: This pass was on the money. The Sooners' heralded tight end had been knocked off-balance, so he couldn't jump for it like he was supposed to.
I now know that Mayfield kind of specializes in "jump balls". He deliberately throws high whenever he can, even to normal-sized receivers. If his receivers know it's coming and the defender doesn't, it gives the receiver an edge.
Review the tape. You'll see this all game long; guys leaping to high-point Mayfield passes. But if the guy can't make that leap, it's an easy pick if a safety is backing the play.
It's not that important. That's how Oklahoma's (really smart) Coaches make the most of the players they have. Mayfield went low and hard when he needed to as well.
Based on this one game, here is what you will be reading about Baker Mayfield:
1: Inaccurate on deep passes.
2: Marginal arm.
3: Falls apart in the clutch.
4: Can't deal with pressure.
This is idiotic, but I'm just giving you a sneak preview so you know who's an idiot when you read it.
Then Mayfield will kick ass at the Senior Bowl and these clowns will all change their minds.
It's too bad that unless Jimmy fires Hue...
That's okay. Based on what I saw tonight, this kid could start in Hue's offense as a rookie. He shouldn't, but since Cousins or Smith would not want to play for Hue, Mayfield would probably beat out Kizer...
And get beat up and lose at first.
Dammit.
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