Saturday, August 12, 2017

Browns Preseason Game One: Stars are Born

Of all people, Bud Shaw was the quickest to write a sane article on the quarterback situation in the wake of DeShone Kizer's impressive debut thursday night vs the Saints.

First, I'll pre-correct the shrinking number of permabashers who decided before any quarterback was signed or drafted that he would bust out:

1: The fact that he was playing against the bottom of the Saints depth chart is almost irrelevant, because he was playing with the bottom of the Browns depth chart.

2: The "vanilla scheme" thing is overstated.  The Saints were blitzing a lot, and mixing coverages too.  Offenses are more vanilla in preseason than defenses.

On the other hand, listen to Hue Jackson's pre-emptive critique aimed at Mary Kay Cabbot, who he knows will declare that Kizer has won the starting job:

He held the ball too long, stared down receivers, and made some bad throws and decisions.  He is a rookie.  He needs more work DO YOU UNDERSTAND MARY KAY?

Osweiler had two days to work with the first team, and most of his problems could be attributed to a lack of chemistry with receivers he'd never worked with.  He did start to get on track in his final drive.

You can't help but be thrilled with Kizer's dramatic improvement in completion percentage, 114 passer rating, and really amazing deep accuracy.

But if he makes the mistakes he made vs the Steelers defense in a real game?  

As Bud Shaw says (quite well), let's see what Brockytop can do with over a week of first-team reps in preseason game two before we make another spastic move.

Brock is using the whole playbook.  Kizer's is attenuated and adapted to him.  Defensive coordinators are already watching that film, and will come up with his kryptonite.

Finally, Kizer is here for five years.  Osweiler is a costly, diminishing asset.  If he can succeed next week, Sashi still has a chance to "cash out" and get a draft pick for him.

As the second (or preferably third) team quarterback, Kizer would once again get proportionately more reps/experience, with two more preseason games remaining.

At this stage, it doesn't matter which unit Kizer plays with, as long as he gets his reps.

Now that I've dumped icewater all over DeShone, I can let my inner-fan out to play:

Wow!  He sure looks like the real deal!  I was unable to watch the game (listened to Jim and Doug), but I was able to watch every pass he threw later.

I saw what Hue was talking about (holding the ball).  The tape didn't show the three sacks, so it made it look like no big deal, but it is.  

This almost always means he's missed his reads, you understand.  He has at least two check-downs every time, and all three are rarely covered.

Like Hue says, rookies do that a lot, and he's not too worried about it long term.  

But I also saw him throwing short darts to crossers.  He wasn't as good at this as he is going postal, but this is where he's made the most progress.

As I've explained, short accuracy to crossers and slanters is very different than vertical accuracy, and there's no way a quarterback can really be elite without being at least above average at both.  If you can't threaten the whole field, defenses can stifle you.

Every short pass I did see was a rocket, but then every short reception I saw was into a very tight window (he had to make stick-throws---and he was mostly on the money.  It was impressive.)

Kessler can't do that.  He can't get it there that fast.  Give him credit for knowing it.

(Side-note here:  Why weren't those crossers getting open?  Are the Saints coverage scrubs that good?  Something's wrong.)

One exception to Kizer's holding the ball issue was that fourth and short touchdown bomb.  He had max protection, and was supposed to wait (if he could.  He no doubt could have ran for a first down-- and don't you know, the defense knew that, see?)

You can do that stuff with a dual threat guy on third or fourth and short.  They have to set up for the run first, then they have to be careful how they attack the backfield.  They really can't afford to hold a safety deep when he's needed in the box and has the best chance of stopping the running quarterback...but I digress anyway you can't do this with Kessler OR Osweiler.  Maybe with Hogan, but Hogan doesn't have that kind of arm...but I redigress...

And yeah, when this particular kid does take over, Hue will pick certain pages out of his massive playbook which suit him best.  Osweiler and Kessler are more conventional.

Kizer has unwisely compared himself to Cam Newton and Tom Brady both.  Well, he's not as big as Cam, but he runs like Cam.  Brady doesn't hold the ball, but I'll tell you what:

DeShone Kizer is deadly accurate at any range.  That's what anybody with a brain saw thursday night.  Yeah, I'm wrong AGAIN!!!

Kizer's got it ALL, man!  I haven't seen if he can use more "touch" on those shorter routes yet.  That's much harder than firing a rifle-shot straight at a spot, and it's about half the skillset required for a Montana-type sharpshooter (and something Kessler excels at).

You can't just assume he'll get good at that, either, people.

But how are we supposed to find out when every short and intermediate receiver he hit was covered like white on rice dammit?  Hey Al Saunders why can't your guys separate?

Well I've probably blabbed over my weight class again, because that was probably zone because I saw the receivers stopped dead, which they're supposed to vs that coverage.

If they don't, Kizer's rifle shot gets picked off.  If they don't and Kizer also screws up, they might end up like Darryl Stingley.  (The lesser consequences graduate down from a coma to a fumble).

...oh some of you don't know that!  Zone coverage is more about putting people in your way than about passing receivers off like batons.

When the 49ers started tearing up the NFL by turning dink passes into 60 yard touchdowns, zone coverage was part of the solution...

But I digress again:  Anyhow that's what a "stick-throw" is: it's a (generally low) bullet pass to the correct side of a receiver who has just stopped dead.  It arrives too fast for the defensive back to prevent the catch.  

Kizer made those throws as well as anybody I've seen.  He wasn't perfect, but like I said, as good as any.  It was very impressive, yes it was!  

However, he was probably late on those throws...because he waited for the receivers to stop and turn towards him, instead of throwing when he was supposed to throw.  This gave the coverage guys a chance to close on the receivers, which made the stick-throws neccessary yeah I get it now.

I'll skip Myles Garrett (he speaks for himself) but preseason is where undrafted, practice squad, and third/4th year free agent stars are born.

Trevon Coley was one of these.  He caused that fumble and caused most of the rest of his mayhem from Danny Shelton's left dt spot.  (I'm not sure but Jamie Meder probably did the same from that spot as well).

I love how this Browns regime does business.  At the end of the day, it won't matter if/where you were drafted, or by whome.  Coley (stolen from the Ravens) immediately passed up Ogunjobi (Brantley is injured) based on his performance in practice.

As I posted earlier (blush-blush) scouts blew it on Coley...and a bunch of people blew it on Brantley and Ogunjobi too...Coley can play every inside position in every scheme.  He's actually a veteran, tutored by the Ravens, so he's ready to rock.

My man WR Rodney Lesliefield didn't do that much this time, and Jordan Payton did, so he's fallen behind again.

Josh Boyce had a couple nice plays, but also dropped one.  He's a 26 year-old geezer without Jordan Leslie's freakdom, so he's in even more trouble.

Rannell Hall is on the ropes too.  It's not just his dropped passes (note: from Kizer), but the fact that Jabrill Peppers is another Josh Cribbs.  Also, Ranell is a shrimp.

The linebacker situation is sad.  It's sad because, like edge-rushing defensive ends, starting caliber players will get cut loose.

After this first preseason game, Joe Schobert might well have passed up the long-suffering Tank Carder at mlb (and backup olb).

This stuff is hard for me, because I love underdogs, and it would suck if, after all this time, Tank doesn't get his big break.

But Joe Schobert is better.  

It's ok, though: Tank Carder is a core special teamer, and he's now made himself more indispensable because he's proven that he really is a pretty good linebacker.

Dominique Alexander...well it's sad.  Some really good players are going to get cut off this Browns roster.  Look at what Nate Orchard did thursday night!  Do you understand that he might still get cut?

...or not.  Cam Johnson is older.  Ty Holmes is a very similar player.  Garrett, Ogbah, and Nassib are set in stone.  That leaves one slot.  It's sad.

I root for Nate Orchard, because he was actually a decent 3-4 OLB and always just finds ways to make plays; he's just a pure football player with great instincts, and the hell with his combine numbers.

But that's just my emotionally charged amatuer opinion.  Someday I dream of buying access to PFF's database so I can clinicly compare players, but for right now I'm just a fan (sorta).

Mayes didn't impress me as much as he seemed to impress everybody else.  It was pretty cool how he took his time and picked his shot to get that touchdown, but I don't make as big a deal of that as most people do.

Don't get me wrong: I've compared Mayes to Earnest Byner.  I just hate it when certain Doug announcers Jim who shall remain nameless bend over backwards (and foreward) lavishing praise on any player.

What about Richard Mullaney, who got open 45-plus yards deep and caught that Kizer bomb?  He's still a guy named Joe.

I feel for the "losers", because I know they're in the 99th percentile, and am irked by the fact that the 15th percentile calls them "losers" and "bumbs", but I take comfort from the fact that they'll make more money than most of their critics do.

Sadly, I have to spell this out: If the 2017 Browns are forced to cut starting caliber linebackers, defensive ends,  running backs, guards, centers, tight ends, and possibly even wide receivers, where are they, really?

Oh crap I left gaps!  Sigh...

The Browns will probably keep four tight ends.  The loser is probably JP Holtz, who has been kicking ass as a receiver from all over the place.  Hell YES he could start somewhere else, if you're not picky about in-line blocking.  JP could only start for 7-8 teams, though.

Fabiano could only start at center for 4-8 teams.  He's mostly a zone-blocker.  Ikard is similar.  Reiter got the jump on them.  He's bigger and stronger now.

Ok look I shouldn't need to spell the rest of it out--my god if my twelve followers are mindless zombies I have failed utterly just T H I N K ok?

The 2017 Browns are unlikely to make the playoffs *can't count it out--not now*, but they should achieve respectability.

Aside from Joe Thomas, Njoku was also missing.  Hue ran his two tight end offense with Telfer (how bout that? Dint know he could catch, did you?  I mean, unless you read my blog that is dammit)

Anyway you need to join me here and strive for imagination:

Imagine DeShone Kizer at QB (in game TEN) (or later):

...ok look you can't.  Everybody is telling you that Hue Jackson is a mad bomber, and that's bullshit.  Hue Jackson is ultra-flexible, but prefers a Correlyan timing offense.  This is more vertical/aggressive than Walsh's "west coast", but is kinda the same...

...as, by the way, Lindy Infante's offensive scheme, which underpinned the "Kardiak Kids", and much of which Walsh stole and took credit for.

But I digress again: The point is, Hue Jackson runs a timing offense.  He goes deep occasionally but prefers accurate, high-percentage, chain-moving passes overall!

Kizer has to get rid of it on-time to make it work right.  That's why the HEAD COACH QUARTERBACK GURU keeps telling you "he's a rookie.  He's got a lot of work to do.  It's way too early"  DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Cleveland Browns: Looking Scary. No Kiddin.

Boy, Brock is like a bulldog.  Now that he's with the ones, he's not messing around!  He's hitting all his receivers (speading the ball around), which is a great sign.

Yes, his mechanics could break down on thursday (my biggest concern with a guy that tall), but if he "maintains", things are looking up!

Regardless of what Osweiler does, almost everybody inserts that damn "Obviously he's not a long-term solution" disclaimer, which is driving me insane.  To me, this sounds like "Baah!  Baah!"

Why are you saying that?  He's big, has a strong arm...I kinda get it when you said that about Kessler, but Osweiler?

Ok for most of you it's peer pressure, and you really are sheep.  But for the originators of that disclaimer (including Buzz Kill Bill Polian), it's because of his crappy 2016 performance.

For you, that's it.  He had his chance and he blew it.  Stick a fork in him, he's done.

I can see that.  He understudied the great Peyton Manning and was groomed by QB guru Gary Kubiak. It's not like he was a rookie.

Still, I don't buy it.  Rich Gannon never accomplished much until he was an old geezer.  Joe Flacco has had down years.  Big Ben took a long time to really become elite.  

You can't write a big guy with an arm off like that!  You can say he might not be, or even probably isn't the answer, and I won't go nuts.  But you're saying he's done.

He's absolutely not.  For all I know, Sashi Brown just accidentally caught lightening in a bottle, and Osweiler will keep doing what he's been doing.

I'm in daydream-mode now:  What if Osweiler does that and Kizer is "all that" too?

Nevermind.

Anyway Ricardo Louis is starting to really show up (uh...with Osweiler hmm).  And Duke Johnson is starting to catch passes...with Brock...

NFL Radio was at today's practice (Phil Savage and Solomon Willcotts two of my favorites).  I was unable to listen to the whole thing (yet), but I caught enough to pick on people:

Phil stipulated to Kenny Britt and Corey Coleman at wide receiver, but pointed to Duke Johnson in the slot and says "it seems like they don't have confidence in their other wide receivers".

Hue Jackson himself helped clear this up a few minutes later.  He told Phil that Duke is a playmaker and one of his best players, and it made no sense to him to keep him on the bench.

Duh.  Hue didn't bother talking about the two-tight end sets.

Another guy on NFL Radio I picked on was Jim Miller, by the way.  When the Browns made the Osweiler second-round pick trade, Miller called Osweiler the best quarterback on the Browns roster.  "Why would you just cut him?"

At the time, I thought Jim was full of it, because Kessler had done what he'd done.  But it now looks like he was right, and I was wrong.  In fact, Jim (a former NFL quarterback who played in several systems), was the first guy I heard who compared the Kubiak system to the O'Brien system (to the Jackson system) and said Brock could prosper under Hue Jackson.

Yeah I guess I got Brockmania.  Sorry.

Anyway all I heard were the top guys interviewed (Kirksey, Osweiler, Jackson).  

Osweiler talked a lot about how he followed Peyton around, studied his game-tapes trying to figure out what he saw and why he did stuff, and learning from him how to prepare and study.

Kirksey said little of consequence (nothing wrong with that 95% of what players say is pc pap).

But Jackson somehow manages to be honest and informative without screwing up!  Like the Duke Johnson in the slot stuff.

Phil and Solly understand what's going on here.  Phil said they were in year two of a "three year project".  

Back to the practices, and what they indicate (start paying attention):

Up until this week (when a certain QB took over the first team), the hyper-aggressive, insideously diabolical Gregg Williams and his s-load of passrushers, linebackers, and freaks kind of "owned" the offense.

This week, the offense is scoring touchdowns.

I'm sorry.  I have to.  Osweiler is just plain more experienced.  He is making the difference.  Williams just can't mess him up as much as he does the other guys.

Meanwhile, Gregg's defense is finally getting some turnovers.

That's good, too.

Oblivions and Myopians don't get this, but this training camp is a real pressure-cooker, with very talented players fighting very talented players.

Garrett vs Thomas is only the most obvious example.  

Duke Johnson as a slot receiver hasn't done much yet, but that's partly because of who's been covering him.  Kenny Britt has been more or less contained, but suddenly we see Corey Coleman (and Louis) making plays.

One guy said that the first team offense opposes the second team defense.  I guess that could be right, but more likely, this pundit assumed this was the case since that's how they ran friday's scrimmage.

It's not that important, since (in reality) Gregg's defense has great depth, and "vetted" players on both offense and defense get days off, so they can stay healthy while the youngsters fighting for status (or survival) can get their reps.

I've got to say, I couldn't have run this training camp much better my own humble self.  

This is "analytics", you see?  Guys like Kirksey, Collins, Bitonio etc are "known".  In some cases, you need to see how they'll do at different positions, or maybe you need to see where a Joe Haden is at after offseason surgeries...

But once you know all you need to know about veteran players, you put them on bicycles, so that the young, unproven guys can get their reps and show their stuff.

1: Your core players remain healthy.
2: Your unproven players get more reps/experience.
3: You get more "tape" on these guys, so you can make smarter decisions at the cut-down deadlines.

You can say "analytics" if you want, but it's really just uncommon sense.

Preseason is mostly about trying out young players and tuning up a little, but it's also like a flea market.

I expect Kessler to be pissed off.  He won't be up against this defense.  He should have Ricardo Louis, Rodney Lesliefield, Matthew Dayes, and Njoku (who has the dropsies and needs more work) to work with, and might just kick New Orleans' second string defenses ass.

Maybe.  Anyhoo, as Bill Belichick was once ridiculed and burned in effigy in Cleveland for saying, I can only go by what I see:

Kevin Hogan is looking better than Cody Kessler right now.  Sashi and Paul might be looking to trade Kessler.

Playing him behind Osweiler, and (I suspect) ahead of Kizer (and Kizer ahead of Hogan) would tell other GMs and coaches that Hue thinks Kessler is second-best, and that he thinks Hogan sucks.

Hogan might well kick ass, but the "football people" will dismiss it because he's beating guys who won't be in the NFL.

They'll take Kessler at face value, if he kicks ass vs second stringers, and they'll remember he started a bunch of games, and piled up some pretty good stats.  They'll see Cody Kessler as a really cheap top-flight backup.

Bill Belichick might suspect that the Browns prefer Hogan to Kessler, but I doubt that anybody else would, so they might trade for Kessler.  Conceivably even a fourth round pick!

This is more of what you call "analytics" on my part, I guess:

I now think that Brock Osweiler is at least a top-flight backup.  I Know that in this reality, DeShone Kizer is a project, with no guaranteed results.  I still like Kessler, but he doesn't look so good lately...

But Hogan does! In reality, the guys on NFL Radio discussed Kevin Hogan a lot in the draft he and Kessler shared, and never said a word about Kessler.

The whole Kevin Hogan thing is wierd, ok?  Nobody saw him as a dual threat.  Only a few questioned his arm, and he was generally considered accurate.  Almost everybody called him a "brain".

You can burn me in effigy (as you did "the worst Head Coach in history") for saying this again, but I can only go by what I see: Kevin Hogan is the second-best quarterback on this roster, and he has great upside, and he's a perfect match for Kizer in the offense Hue would run to maximize that skill-set.

Bold Predictions:

1: Osweiler will remain the starter into game one and beyond.
2: Cody Kessler and Kevin Hogan will both have long NFL carrers.
3: Kizer will eventually become at least an above average starting quarterback.
4: Myles Garrett will be a monster.
5: So will Jamie Collins.
6: Seth DeValve will outdo Njoku in 2017.
7: Kai Nacua makes the team and plays a lot.
8: Rodney Lesliefield makes the team...at least.
9: So does Josh Gordon.
10: Crowell becomes the new "Beast-mode" (wish I could predict a signing).

Defending Brock Osweiler

Channeling MKC, Mike Florio wrote an article implying that Brock Osweiler's thursday preseason start actually makes it less likely that he will start opening day.

To be clear, this wasn't a dumbass article, which is why I linked to it (quality control).

Hue Jackson himself said that the starter will get fewer reps than the guys behind him, and the younger guys behind him need more reps.

Mary Kay will soon be predicting that DeShone Kizer will start the third "dress rehearsal" preseason game, as by that time his rapid development will have him ready to step in and stuff, given his "rapid improvement"...

Anyway Mike is being logical and stuff, but if you read this article, you can feel that Florio is full of skepticism over Osweiler period.

Hard to blame people who feel that way.  His 2016 season with the Texans was about as bad as DeShone Kizer's 2016 with Notre Dame.  (Please re-read that last sentence).

Indeed, even with Denver, he was just "okay"--not really anything special.

It still feels like prejuduce to me.  Brock started slow in Cleveland this season, but (unlike Kizer, at least in this dimension), he improved rapidly, and kind of took over the friday scrimmage, the one after that, and monday's practice with the first team offense.

You can throw that 57% completion percentage out the window too, because starting with that scrimmage, he's been hitting everything he throws at, short, intermediate, and deep.

Brock could regress once he starts getting beat up.  We'll see.  But to just brush off what he's done here; to call it a mirage; isn't objective.

What Wiley and Jackson have seen is a pretty good quarterback.

It's true that the younger guys need more reps in order to develop.  It's just as true that Osweiler doesn't, because he's a veteran starter.

Florio points out that the other players matter.  They knew that Brock was regarded as a toss-in when that trade was made.

It doesn't matter.  Now the players know that he's currently the best quarterback on this roster.  That's all they care about.

Now: Players improve over time, and that's especially true for quarterbacks.  Quarterbacks keep getting better right into their 30s.  When position players are losing speed and quickness, quarterbacks are still getting better.

This does apply to Brock Osweiler.

Coming out of college, he was a project.  Then he was starting for the Superbowl-winning Denver Broncos, and did a decent job.  Then he started 14 games for the Texans and stunk up the joint.

But all along, he was accumulating experience, and learning.

Now, he returns to a similar system to that which he succeeded with in Denver.  He's been humbled, and had to dig his way out of a deep hole.

This is why I say again, this Brock Osweiler should be an upgrade over the younger version who started for the Broncos.  He should be wiser, stronger, and more disciplined.

And if he is, then he will be the opening day starter, period.

Terry Pluto is absolutely right.  There is no reason to rush a CLEARLY not-ready-for-primetime DeShone Kizer into the meatgrinder anytime soon.  Just start the best quarterback!!!

As you know, I run the Cody Kessler fan club.  Well, I have to step down.  I'm not giving up on him yet, but that Kevin Hogan...well I'm afraid Kessler might lose this fight.

Sunday, August 6, 2017

Rodney Lesliefield, Mental Disorders, and the Browns

I've been waiting for Robo or somebody else to so much as mention wide receiver Jordon Leslie.  Leslie didn't just outperform every other receiver in the live scrimmage friday, but put an exclamation point on it in saturday's scrimmage too.

What does this 6'3" freak athlete have to do to get noticed by somebody besides the coaches?  Moon the reporters?

It's cool that other undrafted guys like Danny Vitale and Trevon Coley are getting some hat-tips, but damn!  Leslie is standing out.  I don't get it!

Is it because he's not a vedderrunn? It gets hard to keep reciting that mindless Saunders and Britt-insulting mantra when a kid from the bottom of your (old) depth chart makes your tight ends and other wide-outs look sick.

Maybe everybody just made up their minds to black out any news about young guys kicking butt to try to force the Browns to sign some old geezer who can come in and keep the kid on the bench.

Nobody else will tell you, so I will.  Leslie caught five passes (all from Osweiler), including three in a row for two first downs.  Don't you think Gregg Williams and the safety were paying attention the third time?

The Browns might really have something here!  This guy's had a couple seasons worth of NFL coaching, and is fairly refined (not a typical rookie).

He's a skyscraper like Kenny Britt, and can do everything he does.  While we've been waiting for Ricardo Louis to do something special, Leslie has been sneaking up on him, and may have passed him on the depth chart.

A star may be being born right before our eyes, and nobody else seems to see it!

Now, for the first time in 81 attempts, Rodney Kesslerfield throws a pick, and Collins returns it 80 yards for a TD.  Chris Pokorney had obviously been waiting for this, as he wonders if this was "the last straw" for him.

What the hell are you people talking about?  Kessler has unofficially completed 64% of his passes!  Kizer?  FIFTY TWO PERCENT.  Don't you understand that this matters?

Why don't we just bring Tim Tebow back?

For that matter, Rodney Hoganfield is at 63%, and Osweiler (thanks to Leslie) has come on strong and got up to 57% (and climbing).

In reality, Osweiler and Hogan were the two best quarterbacks on friday, and Osweiler did it again saturday too.

It won't matter to Mary Kay, no sir.  She said early last week that (52%) Kizer had already passed (then 67%) Kessler, and "it's not even close". 

You know what Head Coaches call a 66% passer?  "Acceptable".  A 52% passer? "Gone."  A guy with a popgun arm who completes two out of three passes can move the ball.  A guy with a cannon who misses as often as he hits kills drives.

That's why Hue Jackson (and every other Head Coach) lists accuracy above arm-strength.  Why doesn't anybody think he means it?

I hope Kizer succeeds, and think he will, but Mary Kay?  Chris?  He's not even close yet.  Put your glasses on!

OMG Mary Kay expects Hue to start Kizer thursday!  What the hell maybe he will just to get her to back off her irrational, obsessive campaigning for him!  

I got egg on my own face over Brock Osweiler.  I posted that he was just too tall, and that his physical flaws might be unfixable.  Maybe he read that or something, because he got hot in the live scrimmage, and stayed hot.

Kessler is being challenged...by Osweiler.

Ezweav weighed in on Brock, saying much the same thing.

Just think: What if Osweiler were to win the job and play as well or better than he did in a similar system in Denver?

His salary would look like a good deal, with a year left on it he's now worth a high draft pick should they trade him, and wow...they got him and a second round draft pick for...free?

Sashi Brown for Mayor.

Matt Stevenson posted this pretty good preview of the Browns wide receivers.  But something is missing.

That's correct:  Jordon Leslie.  (Ok well, he did mention his name in the middle of John Doe and Joe Blow as an afterthought).  Why does Jordon even bother showing up?

At least Matt included Josh Gordon.

Matt says he has proven he can't be relied on.

No, he hasn't.  He had drinks with teammates on a plane after the season was over.  He drank too much water.  He walked by somebody smoking pot and gave a second hand sample well below the US military cieling, the subsequent raised NFL cieling, and his other sample passed.

He's being persecuted, pure and simple.  Let the poor bastard up!!!

This just in:  Nate Lese is here to challenge Danny Vitale.  He's not here to play tight end.

Rasheed Bailey is not a rookie.  He's played in Canada and is actually a pretty good wide receiver.

The Eagles just loaded up at wide receiver (including Terrelle Pryor), and Bailey was most likely intended for their practice squad (light-fingers Brown strikes again).

One or more of the wide receivers drafted in 2015 could be in trouble.




Friday, August 4, 2017

Read-Option, Play Action, Hue Jackson, and the Browns

With the injuries to Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler is again in play as potential trade bait.

Options for the Fins and Ratbirds include Kaperdick and Cutler.  People need to stop bringing up Peyton Manning (please just stop it).  Romo is an extreme longshot too.

Nobody will pay Brock 16 million, of course.  The compensation wouldn't be higher than a conditional 6th round pick, and his salary would be around 3 million (with the Browns paying the 13 mil balance).

If you're scoffing at this, there is something wrong with you.  At 16 million, Osweiler is a joke. At 3 million, he is a bargain.

He hasn't looked great in camp so far, but hasn't looked too bad, either.  Other teams are paying attention.

Reports of Cody Kessler's demise are greatly exaggerated.

Understand that NFL Radio and other national sources regard Deshone Kizer PR rep Mary Kay Cabbot as their "go-to" source on the Browns.  When Mary Kay writes something, it's magnified exponentially through repetition.

This is Intro to Propaganda 102, by the way.

In the Browns most recent practice, Kizer did outperform Kessler.  True.

But Mary Kay said he has been outperforming him throughout camp.  Delusional.

Per Number Fire, Kessler was the best quarterback in the NFL on crossing patterns, and as I've already mentioned, completed eighty percent of his passing attempts against pressure.

(By the way, the Number Fire article has a lot to say about Rodney Brittfield).

Is Kizer closing the gap?  Of course he is!  He's a rookie!  And his own most recent stats from college were putrid by comparison.  The original gap was HUGE, and there still is one.

Why does Mary Kay say this stuff?  Well, because Kizer throws those thrilling, beautiful deep passes!  Ooh!  Ahh!

Mary Kay might also point out to you that Kessler is short, and ranked 27th in yards per-attempt.  This was not because of his arm, however.  This was because he became a check-down Charlie.  It was about decision-making, and not a fictionalized physical limitation.

Look at Hue Jackson's face, and read/hear the frustration in his responses, when Mary Kay asks him about each and every batted Kessler pass and touch-sack.  Read his words, as he keeps saying, over and over again "but the other guys (Kessler) did some good things too".  He's sick of Mary Kay's campaigning for Kizer.

That being said, DeShone Kizer is improving, and more objective observers are greatly encouraged.

Kizer also has an edge over everybody else except Kevin Hogan:  The read-option.  Another advantage he has is his exceptional ability to execute play-action passes.

Both of these edges fit a run-heavy offense perfectly.  When these guys are on the field, they run a somewhat different offense than Kessler and Osweiler do.

This is classic Hue Jackson, adapting to his players (each in turn).

So despite the fact that Cody Kessler remains the best quarterback on this roster, the chances of Kizer overtaking him by game one are a lot better than I had thought.

I hadn't expected Hue to tweak things as much as he has for Kizer.  I expected him to keep forcing Kizer to work on the things he sucked at, and run the same plays as Kessler.

And check out Kevin Hogan's unofficial passing stats! 10 of 15!?

I remember how Chris Palmer helped destroy Tim Couch's career by refusing to let him do any of what he did best in college.  He kept him under center and in the pocket behind an expansion team offensive line, with little help from the skill players.

Couch did adapt, with impressive speed, and was an above average quarterback as a rookie.  But even after he had proven he was a viable pocket passer, Palmer refused to let him take more shotgun snaps or roll out.

Couch's chronic tendinitis led to a chain-reaction destruction of his right elbow and shoulder, but Chis Palmer's blockheaded rigitity got him pounded to mush.

Hue seems to be quite different.  He's making Kizer do the hard stuff, but also letting him do some of what he naturally does best, even this early.

I now give Deshone Kizer a shot at starting game one (and the Browns running a different offense than they ran last season), and also of Kevin Hogan (who fits this new offense perfectly) hanging around as the third quarterback.

I know this would make Mary Kay correct, but don't care.  I figured it out.  She tripped over it.

But Mary Kay?  66% completions (Kessler) is good.  52% completions (your client) sucks.  And for all his pretty passes, Deshone was 5 for 12.

First.  Downs.  MATTER.

Wednesday, August 2, 2017

AFC North Good News for the Cleveland Browns

Lots of good news in the AFC North!

First, a disclaimer:  I never root for anybody to get injured, except maybe Vontez Burfict or Colon Kaperdick (I think I'm adding Ebineezer Belle to the list).

But injuries do happen, so I don't feel too guilty about saying "Please God, if you insist on letting guys get hurt, make them important guys amen."

Back injuries are especially nasty, and particularly for quarterbacks, and especially for 6'6" quarterbacks named Flacco.

This could literally cripple the Ravens offense, especially now that Crockett Gilmore will miss the season.  Gilmore hasn't done much yet, but that was partly because he had Pitta in front of him.

Now Pitta has retired, and the talented Gilmore was ready to step up and be a really good tight end...aint it beautiful (I'm tearing up here...)

Siragusa also was lost for the season.  He was competing for a starting role, and this did hurt their depth.

Sadly, none of the most important defensive players have gone down yet, so we can expect a murderous Ravens defense.  Still, the offense could be even worse than I'd predicted.

I'll take Flacco either not playing, or being a hero and playing badly.

The Ravens are indeed floating a Kaperdick trial balloon.  Baltimore might be perfect for him, since race riots over pending civil rights cases are popular there.  And look at who they vote for!  

By the way, there is no conspiracy against this cretin.  If I were an owner, he could be Cam Newton and I wouldn't let my team sign him, but a lot of them are spineless so they would, except they fear the distractions and backlash (and indeed empty seats).

Anyway I hope the Ravens do sign him.  I would love that.

In Steeltown...ok well unless Big Ben gets hurt it won't matter much, but Ebineezer Belle and the front office could be conspiring to do excellent long-term damage.  Belle hasn't signed his paltry 12 mil franchise offer yet, which in/of itself means little, as he might just be using his unsigned status to skate out of practice he really doesn't need (I'd do it).

But the noises he makes are great to hear!  He says he thought the deal would be done by now.  He turned down 15 mil/year!!!  I'm so happy that the Steelers have a human monkey wrench like this guy!  

Cinci has Vontez Burfict!  He might win at least one game for the Browns with his timely 15-yard penalties.  Most Bengals fans get it but some don't: Don't blame Andy Dalton.

On the home front, there aren't any idiots or psychopaths, and they've been unusually injury-free.

Bruce Smith here to help coach Myles Garrett? Joe Thomas finally takes some reps and the rookie burns him for a touch-sack almost immediately?  Wow this is looking good!

Let's not dis defensive line coach Clyde Simmons here (like all the "vedderrunn wyde receever" guys are dissing Saunders): Clyde Simmons was no joke as a player!  He was a starter and a Pro-Bowler, and played for a long time

I commend the braincrust for inviting Smith in here to step on Clyde's toes.  Most organizations wouldn't do that.  It's unusually ADULT of them.

I doubt that Simmons is childish or immature enough to feel offended or insulted.  He'd suck as a coach if he was, and wouldn't be here.

I'm not sure how much Bruce can help Myles technically, because he was a lot shorter and smaller.  Where he helps more is psychologicly:

Bruce Smith was fat and complacent early in his career, and was literally on his way out of the NFL when he did a 180.  He quit partying and started working out like a maniac.  It was night and day.  

It's an impressive (and rare) story.  Bruce can teach more than just passrushers a thing or two, and trust me: Hue Jackson has him doing that while he's here.

Throughout preseason, Garrett has lived up to his billing.  In the team drills, he's torched everybody across from him repeatedly for touch-sacks.  In full pads, this matters.  

Garrett is one of three "freaks" in the overjoyed Gregg Williams's defense.  The other two are Jamie Collins and Jabrill Peppers, and it just so happens that covers all three levels from line to secondary.

I don't think Gregg will bother moving Garrett around much, because he does overmatch most NFL left tackles, and nobody else on the roster does.

Ogbah did come on strong later in 2016, but as I've mentioned, he got most of this on stunts, and wasn't actually on the edge in the first place.

Ok new subject, Ogbah:  If you compare combine numbers between Ogbah and Garrett, you see very similar players.  Garrett has the edge, but not by much.

Last season in Ray Horton's defense, Ogbah the "defensive end" lined up on or inside the left tackle.  That roster couldn't come up with a consistent edge-rushing linebacker from the blind side.

Under Gregg Williams, Ogbah will get to be a true edge-rusher from the strong side.  It looks perfect for him, because if he has anything on Garrett, it's brute strength and leverage.  NFL right tackles won't be able to handle him without help, and he can stunt from that side too.

This is deep enough for the moment.  Okbye.



Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Revised Intelligent Analysis of the Browns

I have to correct myself yet again.  I have completely ignored DT Trevon Coley, who was signed to the Browns practice squad as an undrafted free agent last season.  He wasn't even invited to his combine.

The two main reasons for that were his height (under 6'1"), and level of competition.

Halfassed scouting reports aside, Foley projected to any inside defensive tackle in any 4-3 defense, or nose tackle in a 3-4.

I don't know when it was decided that defensive and nose tackles needed to be tall, when "short man wins" remains an oft-used axiom among coaches and players.

Foley is quite athletic and disruptive, but also uses something called "L E V E R A G E" to stand up run-blockers and bull-rush pass-blockers.

Short guys are vulnerable to initial punches.  The offensive lineman can get his hands on them early to arrest their mojo or disrupt their balance.

Amateur scouts write them off for this reason, but they're wrong.  The best short guys are good hand-fighters, and can knock the taller guy's slower hands away (outside).  Further, short arms don't just help them bench-press.  They help the short guy control the tall guy once he gets close.  Foley, in particular, also has a low center of gravity.

Contrary to some opinions, Brantley and Ogunjobi aren't as well-suited to the one-tech as they are to the 3.  Foley fits into either slot, and for that reason, has a shot.  Unfortunately, Jamie Meder could be the odd man out because of it.

I'm batting about .150 lately, as Hue Jackson himself said that Derrick Kindred would be playing free safety.

Kindred's position coach likes his change-of-direction quickness.  Kindred's 40 time is quite good for that position (doesn't mean that much here:  They don't start from a dead stop.  "Cruising speed" means more.)

I didn't read the question Hue was asked, but his exact words in re Kindred and free safety were "he'll be there", not "he'll be starting there".  And I doubt that Gregg Williams has made any firm decisions there this soon.

I still say that Kai Nacua is right there, contending with Kindred, and McCourty is the break glass in case of emergency guy.

Bold Predictions by Ryan Landolph (Factory of Sadness) was interesting and thoughtful.  I like this guy (so far).

Ryan thinks Kizer will be starting by game 3.  I do not.  I don't think Rodney Kesslerfield will let him.  If, as is likely, the Browns are no longer in playoff contention, Kizer ought to get his shot, because they do indeed need to see him in action, and get him some experience ahead of the next draft.

But then, Cody could get tko'd again, so Ryan might accidentally be right.

But this guy really is bold, as he predicts that Kevin Hogan makes the team, and Osweiler hits the dusty trail.  I hadn't seriously considered this before, but this writer makes sense.

Kevin Hogan last season was a 50% passer, but he ran around like Colon Kaperdick.  We're talking about the third quarterback here, ok?

As Ryan also points out, if Hogan is number three, he's not just collecting splinters.  Hue would use him in some Wildcat change-of-pace stuff.

Osweiler may have some unfixable issues.  There's a reason why no good quarterbacks are over 6'6".  Other than Joe Flacco, 6'5" is the cieling, for that matter.

Every motion is elongated and protracted.  Brock could be a stud basketball foreward, but still couldn't take a quick sidestep and reset, or get rid of the ball quickly.  It's not his fault, but it's just a physical reality.

Even Flacco to this day goes through periods of "averageness" as his mechanics regress a little.

Kevin Hogan, on the other hand, has real upside.  Many of my experts on NFL Radio talked him up in his own draft, figuring he might go as high as the second round.  None of them were picking at his accuracy or arm, either.

Clearly, as a rookie filling in, he made several dumb decisions, and missed badly on some pass attempts, but that's not the end of this story!  I keep trying to make you guys understand, young players tend to I M P R O V E, ok?

Hogan will probably never be a starter, but he is a dual threat who should become wiser and more accurate.  If this guy doesn't get injured, he should have a nice, long career in the NFL.

Mr. Landolph also thinks that the Browns will hold onto John Greco.  Ryan talks about "sacrificing cap space", which I find humorous.  It's more about sacrificing young talent.

Greco would be the sixth offensive lineman. Last season, the Browns retained eight.  To keep Greco, the Browns would need to waive some young talent.  Even if they try to sneak them onto the practice squad, they're exposing them to 31 other teams.

I sort of agree with Ryan that Rango and Johnson look like the last two (assuming eight are retained again; I think they're just as likely to keep nine this time).

Aside:  I always look for deep convoluted chess-plots, and wonder if Johnson vs Garrett is cooincidental.  They knew that Garrett would humiliate Johnson, ok?  They may now try to sneak the "tainted" left tackle onto the practice squad, as somebody trying to nab him would be less likely.  Just a theory.

John Greco is 31, not 35, and is an offensive lineman.  As a backup, he could well have three years left in his tank.  To both DePodesta and Brown, his retention is a viable option.

The Des Bryant thing is totally different.  Defensive linemen don't last as long.  Plus, in this defense, Bryant is a 3-tech period.  Greco can play every offensive line position (I know you don't want him at left tackle, but yeah even that).

I don't want to see Reiter go, and I haven't given up on Erving yet, either.  Maybe they can get a draft pick for Erving...I dunno...

Ryan doesn't think Sashi will add a vedderrunn wide receiver, but he doesn't seem to understand the real reasons.

He's actually looking at the 36-year old Anquan Boldin I mean...

Look, Sashi Brown has said that he will consider adding a veteran wide receiver, not that he wants or needs to!  The problem here is that he has a law degree and speaks english.  I'm here to translate: Sashi, when pressed, said he will LOOK AT veteran wide receivers.

HE never said the Browns needed one, nor did any of the coaches.  This is a little like the Trump-Russia collusion stuff.  This whole vedderunn wide receiver stuff all came from pundits and (dumber) guys like me.

Sorry to redundate yet again, but we are looking at a two tight end base offense in which a running back is probably the primary slot guy.  This means a number of "22" personnel looks entering huddles, leaving room for only ONE real wide receiver.

Even in a "12" package, there are only two actual wide receivers!  Isaiah Crowell can play the slot himself in this package, and empty out the backfield to present a five-wide, still with only two real wide receivers ok dammit stop it why dont you see this #`@)3×<#$@!@!!😲÷?!?!!

There is NOT any need for "vedderunn leederrship" for these wide receivers.  I wonder why Kenny Britt doesn't count here (not to mention the coaches).  Remember school?  How many teachers did you have in a classroom?  Did they fking outnumber you dammit?

This is cheap, but in point of law I should mention that all the current wide receivers are technically veterans now.

Ohmmm...ohmmm...anyway Ryan wrote a great article except for that part.  Even Terry Pluto keeps screwing that up, so he gets an A-minus.  His thoughts on Hogan over Osweiler were really sharp, and the John Greco thing was almost as good as the stuff I wrote in my last or second-last post.

None of the five players who Patrick Maks says have shined so far should surprise my readers, except for Matthew Dayes.

Dayes is growing on me, and this may be a case where combine numbers don't count.  I remember a guy named Earnest Byner.  

Earnest wasn't big or fast, and didn't get drafted.  He went to the USFL, where he kicked ass.  Ernie Accorsi signed him to the Browns.

Byner played way over his weight-class taking handoffs, but was absolutely lethal catching dumpoffs out of the backfield, and was actually a big-time lead blocker for Kevin Mack.

Dayes is starting to look a lot like Earnest Byner to me.  

Patrick also hit on Seth DeValve (music to my bloodshot eyes).  You guys know I should run the DeValve fan club.  In my opinion, he has already nailed down the top tight end slot, and Hue does NOT expect Njoku to overtake him any time soon.

Njoku and DeValve are remarkably similar to eachother statisticly and athletically.  DeValve is a little shorter and (now) heavier, and they don't look exactly the same, but they have similar skills.

Right now, Njoku is reincarnating Edwards Scissorhands, but I expect him to overcome this.  Meanwhile, DeValve has predictably improved, and never dropped passes in the first place.

I was glad to hear Crowell say he wanted to stay in Cleveland, but shocked to hear him talk about "top money".  David Johnson and Ebineezer Belle are in reality the best running backs in football, and Belle just turned down 15 mil/year.

Crow just hired Drew Rosenhaus, and this does not look promising for 2018.  I hope I'm wrong, because Crowell might be the next Beastmode, but Sashi won't blow over 10% of his cap on any non-quarterback, and I don't blame him.

I never hope for a player to be injured, but...ok maybe a hammy a couple times? An ankle sprain?  Yeah I hope Crow gets stuck in some mud and loses leverage so sue me.  If Sashi hasn't already offered him four years, 40 mil, 8 guaranteed in year one, 7 in year 2, and 5 per thereafter (total 25 guaranteed), he screwed up.

If he did, and Crow rejected it, he screwed up.

I'm sick of this.  I remember multi-millionaire (and scumbag) Albert Belle taking like 2.2% more to bug out and talking about how he could support his family now.  I remember Jim Thome doing the same and saying "it's not about the money".

A lot of you guys see all this cap space the 2017 Browns have and want to spend it all, giving everybody everything they want.

Sashi and company are looking seven or ten years down the road, and even in 2017 cannot realisticly expect to contend.

If you don't believe me, believe Jimmy Haslam.

But I digress:  Whoever plays free safety for Gregg Williams in 2017, they'll win at least five games, and be playoff contenders in 2018.

Gregg Williams could defect for a Head Coach gig, which would hurt a lot, but the Browns will no longer be a place for top-notch coaches to avoid.

Further, elite players with two gliel cells to rub together won't be demanding 10% more to sign with the Browns either.

ALL of this is part of Paul DePodesta's plan.  

Certainly, the Browns need to make the right personnel moves.  You can't have Manziels or Gilberts, or for that matter Ervings.

But if you are already bashing Sashi Brown's first two seasons, you are insane (well except for Schwartze so stipulated--but not Mack deal with it).

So far so good.  Screw 1-15 look at the individual players and their upsides.  It's irrelevant that Kessler never won a game, for example.  How he played was all that mattered.

A lot of you are stuporstitious, and attribute God-like powers to quarterbacks.  You somehow manage to blame every loss on them, no matter how well they play. That's mystical crap.  

Cody Kessler proved himself in his rookie season in a far more difficult situation than Wentz or Prescott inheritted.

Jeez how many "he's a winner" winning college quarterbacks crapped out in the NFL?  Come ON you expect Kizer to replace this guy right away when he played bad and lost in college because he's bigger and can throw deeper?

Ah crap I give up.  I'm all kerphlemt talk amongst yourselves.