Per this article of Fansided by Paul Noels, the Browns aren't interested in a quarterback with the fourth overall pick. The source for this is former player and GM Matt Millen.
"From what I'm hearing"...
Millen is speculating on speculation. Analysts are analyzing and trying to anticipate things. There's a whole lot of "if I were Ray Farmer--" going on here, and I doubt that Matt has a shred of concrete information.
Ray himself started a lot of this up by simply saying "It might not be who you think it is" which, in the minds of many, meant that it could not possibly be Bortles, Bridgewater, or Manziel. And yes, that statement is part of "from what I've been hearing"!
It's fine to speculate, as long as you label what you're writing as your own opinion, and are clear about your sources.
Noel went on to imply that he had "heard" that the Browns were enamored with Watkins at four.
This I doubt. This is another basic math problem. I'm not sure, but I suspect that Ray Farmer is good at basic math:
There is only one football. Many teams don't even have a number one wide reciever, but the Browns do. Having two number one wide recievers would be awesome, but also redundant and inefficient.
That's inefficient in this context; The Browns current roster, and this current free agent/draft crop. Wide reciever is possibly historicly deep, with the draft being deep in general.
Elementary math says you let somebody (who can't add and subtract as well as you can) buy that pick from you and move down. Get more players.
Here's another way of looking at it: At number one wide reciever you have one: Gordon. At number two wide reciever you have zero. You have other zeros: Two at inside linebacker, maybe two at guard, one at backup tight end, one at cornerback, etc.
You add up the zeros and see that you can turn two of those into ones, instead of just one, if you trade down.
One of the reasons Bill Belichick has kept the Patriots competitive is that in most drafts, he trades down--sometimes multiple times. He even starts with a sixth rounder, turns it into a fifth rounder the following year, and a fourth the year after that, and keeps doing that.
That's far, far too sophisticated for most Browns fans. That's math 102.
Beyond the math of it, look at where the Browns will be at four: There are three top quarterbacks, Clowney, and Watson. Five players will be in high demand. Few will fear that Ray will draft Clowney, but the other four guys are potential Browns targets.
I should mention this here, as it's often overlooked: When a team tries to trade up to get a player a team ahead of them wants, that team will demand more if they're even willing to give that player up. So they'll skip them and talk to the team drafting ahead of them.
If the Browns are willing to give up Watkins or a quarterback, they will definitely have that option.
In my previous blog, I mentioned Peter Smith's yen for Odell Beckham over Watson. I personally talked about Mike Evans. The columns today are loaded with free agent wide reciever ideas for the Browns.
It's true that Watson and Gordon would terrify defensive coordinators league-wide, so that even if (as I believe) the Browns land at least one starting veteran wide reciever prior to the draft, they'll still fear that Farmer will take him--or that the Raiders will, etc.
So what is a high second round pick worth in this draft? It could be a stud inside linebacker, cornerback, guard, tight end, or Murray the quarterback (or that other QB).
What would the sixth or seventh pick in this draft be worth? Khalil Mack. Mike Evans. Who's the best cornerback in this draft? Could they now move up from 26? Could they turn one of the second rounders into a first rounder in '14?
See? Math 101!
I still think it's as likely Bortles or Bridgewater as anybody else, and admit that I have no idea. If it's not, I still hope it's a trade-down and then Khalil Mack.
This was all opinion.
Monday, March 10, 2014
Sunday, March 9, 2014
Offseason Browns Rumors
The Browns' pursuit of Matt Schaub is understandable. As Chris Simms said, last season was really Schaub's only bad one.
Schaub himself, however, will resist coming to a team which is likely to draft a quarterback high, not to mention one which (I hope) wouldn't guarantee him the starting gig over Brian Hoyer.
But the market is the market, so Schaub's options might be limited. It's really between the Browns and the Raiders, and there's a lot for him not to like with both teams.
The Raiders give him a better chance of being the default starter, but has less talent, and is in cap purgatory. The Browns have more talent and appear poised to add more, but (I hope) want to give the much younger Hoyer a legitimate chance to win the starting job--and have those draft picks locked and loaded.
I'd like Matt here more than I'd like a Campbell or about any other venerable geezer, and believe that Chris Simms knows what he's talking about: The guy can still be pretty damn good, and already knows Kyle Shanahan and his offense.
I'm a big Hoyer fan, so I almost hope this falls through. If the Browns land Matt Schaub, there's a good chance that Brian won't even get his chance, and will be a default backup, at least until/unless Schaub proves that he really is done.
I personally won't bash the move, if it happens. Hoyer is learning a new system and lacks experience. He's only had about seven quarters as a starter. Schaub was, until last season's collapse, an elite quarterback.
With Hoyer, I could be wrong yet again, and he might not be all that after all. With Schaub, if he returns to the QB he was through 2012, this Browns team could immediately contend for the Division and the playoffs.
And yes they could. I'm really sick of hearing about "too many holes to fill" with over 50 million in cap space and ten draft picks. I think Cleveland's school system really needs to upgrade it's math curriculum. For that matter, why don't they teach critical thinking? Oh yeah--politics nevermind.
My pal Waittilnextyear boldly predicted that the Browns might shock everybody and draft Khalil Mack at four. I could see them using their first pick on Mack, but think it would be much smarter after a trade-down (if Bridgewater or Bortles don't fall to them, which I hope one does).
I hadn't realized before how versatile Mack is, and thanks to Tony Grossi and one of his smarter askers, I now know that he could play inside in this defense, helping to fill that new and enhanced hole at ILB.
Mack would drasiticly upgrade the whole defense in that role, and could play either of the two positions. For that matter, he could play any of the four positions, and in sub packages and situations could line up just about anywhere as a joker.
Tony has them drafting CJ Mosely at 26...can you imagine that? Mack and Mosely inside?
But Peter Smith (Dawg Pound Daily) hopes the Sammy Watkins hype is a smokescreen, and prefers Odell Beckham at 26. The link leads to his really thorough and in-depth analysis of this wide reciever (and returner).
Terry Pluto is also very thorough in trying to figure out Mike Pettine and his philosophy. Thanks to him, I now know that Pettine is a speed freak. As Terry quotes in the article, Pettine said that the easiest thing to do with a player in the NFL is make him stronger. It's a lot harder to speed him up.
That's why he likes Mingo so much, and having his druthers might have made that draft pick himself.
Beckham fits. He's a big-play guy who can play outside or in the slot. Peter is most impressed by his improvement as a reciever, which might be what sold me. When a guy gets this much better this quickly, his dedication and work ethic are self-evident, and he should keep improving as an NFL rookie.
Based on both Pettine's comments and Shanahan's semi-West Coast system, Beckham is a perfect fit, as he excels in the open field and after the catch.
I still like Mike Evans a lot--what a monster! But he won't be there at 26, and if it's a trade-down I'd now take Mack over him.
Regarding that trade-down, Tony Grossi said that Aaron Murray is not a franchise quarterback. I'm not sure what he bases this on. His average arm strength, or perhaps his height, I'd guess. But two of the top safeties I heard interviewed at the combine would probably disagree.
Murray is really advanced. He "moves" safeties with his eyes, and reads defenses.
And at yesterday's Ohio State workout, at least Gil Brandt had the courtesy to mention QB Kenny Guiton, who he feels will probably go undrafted and start out as somebody's fourth quarterback. I still think this guy could be the hugest sleeper in history.
Gil said he played "pretty well" in relief of the starter, which I found rediculous. He was lights out spectacular. But then Gil is always understated that way.
Tony still thinks Bortles will be there at four. He has Houston rolling the dice on Manziel with the first overall pick. I hope he's right, but think he's wrong.
Back to elementary mathematics and fixing the team in one offseason:
WR: The Browns need a Y reciever opposite Gordon. It would be cool to get another stud with number one potential, but this is not a need. They might or might not need a slot reciever, as Benjamin will return and Josh Cooper showed some good stuff late in his second season, but we'll stipulate: Let's add one.
That's two recievers in a draft and free agent market that are deep in them. Julian Edelman is just one of many veteran free agents who could come here and start instantly without breaking the bank.
For the hell of it, let's say they draft Beckham at 26, and sign one middle-tier free agent. WR fixed. Remaining draft picks everything except 26.
The "need" for a running back is, as I've said, massively overstated due to the presence of Rodney Obgannayafield, Rodney Bakerfield, and the zone-blocking rushing attack which will be used. But of course you can always get better, so they'll draft one in the middle rounds. Like Alfred Morris (zone blocking see how that works?)
The "need" for a right tackle does not exist. I fell for it, too. No, they need guards. Athletic, mobile guards who can zone-block and block in space. There are at least two of these in free agency who would hardly put a dent in the cap.
In addition, this is a special sort of player which man-blocking teams (ie the majority of teams) won't neccessarily want. This type of guard isn't neccessarily a road-grader. He might well be labelled a "wall-off" type of blocker, which other teams will pass on.
John Asamoah would be an inexpensive and really nice upgrade.
Corey Linsley, the center at OSU will probably be a third day pick because his arms are a little short and he's a tad over 300 lbs., but he clocked under 5 flat and ran agility drills almost like a tight end. Fourth round or lower, and there are a bunch of these guys.
So far I haven't used the #4 draft pick, or the second rounder, or either of the third rounders, ok?
Tight end? Well yes, another one like Cameron would really help. Kyle Shanahan doesn't use conventional in-line tight ends much, and although Barnidge is highly overdissed as a reciever, the backup situation should be upgraded due to the system.
But this is not a big need, as this offense can function with a third or fourth wide reciever in lieu of a tight end, and Barnidge is, after all, not as bad as most fans think.
Fullback is another position which is easy to fill out of the discard bin in the lower rounds, as the blocking fullback is not a popular position in today's NFL. Even the free agents are woefully underpaid for what they do.
Among the free agents, I like Henry Hynoski (was a NY Giant). He'll be cheaper than dirt, because after being signed as an undrafted free agent, he first injured his knee, and then his shoulder, missing all but three games in 2013.
Hynoski is a 6'2", 260 lb. battering ram and more than that. He's a superior athlete who can catch the ball and run with it. He's highly intelligent and was an academic all-american.
He'll be fully recovered from his fractured shoulder (he got it catching a pass, and I'm guessing that he landed on it). The two injuries will deprive him of leverage, and are nothing to ignore, but they don't as yet prove fragility.
Jordan Cameron through his first couple seasons seemed to be injured all the time. Prior to the 2013 season, he worked out with Tony Gonzales, and altered his workouts somewhat to enhance his durability. It seems to have worked out.
If the Browns can land Hynoski and he can remain healthy, he'll be a major asset.
I read one report which said that Hynoski wasn't offered a tender, but that they intended to try to sign him. Well, they signed the guy who replaced him when he was injured, and I doubt that the Giants want to carry two blocking fullbacks on their roster.
Naturally the most important position is quarterback, but the Browns already have Rodney Hoyerfield, might sign Schaub, they might draft Bortles or Bridgewater (or Murray or even Guiton)--but let's just say they use number four on a QB, and there you go: the offense is fixed!
Ramaining picks: the second rounder, both third rounders, a fourth rounder etc.
They don't need any defensive linemen, and don't really need any OLB's either. They now need two ILB's. Well they can't get Mack or Mosely any more (unless Mosely somehow manages to drop into the second round), but there are several other really good ILB's to be had right through the fourth or fifth rounds.
Ryan Shazier (OSU) is one of these, in the second round. Shazier is faster than most wide recievers, but is a little smallish and is a run-and-hit/cover guy that you don't want taking on guards. He's the guy who would return Roberts to a backup role, and the other position would still need to be filled by a different type of player.
Arthur Moats might be that guy (he can play inside).
So now I've used the second rounder. The rest of the picks still remain for cornerbacks and safeties.
As for that, the safety position, like fullback, is undervalued, and some really good ones are usually there in the middle and even late rounds.
The Browns are already looking hard at Jarius Byrd in free agency, and I believe they like him more than TJ.
That is a system thing too, as Pettine favors a Belichickian cover two with twin safeties for whom coverage is the priority.
Rodney Gipsonfield is this type of player, and fortunately they are ignoring those of you who think he should be replaced. TJ is undervalued in coverage, however, and is a great fallback position.
Rodney Aubreyfield also fits this role nicely as a really talented ball-hawking backup, and in sub defenses. He's just a little short at 5'10", and offenses would try to match him up with skyscrapers. Aubrey is really kind of a cornerback/safety hybrid.
In other words, one way or the other, safety is already covered--there is no need here.
Which leaves cornerback. Sam Shields just re-signed with the Pack dammit, but there are still free agents who could help if Farmer doesn't land a semi-sleeper in the third round or something.
That's the math of it. The whole team can be fixed in one offseason without using much of their cap space. Thank you for attending Remedial Mathematics 101.
Oh yeah and no thirty year old Steelers, please.
Schaub himself, however, will resist coming to a team which is likely to draft a quarterback high, not to mention one which (I hope) wouldn't guarantee him the starting gig over Brian Hoyer.
But the market is the market, so Schaub's options might be limited. It's really between the Browns and the Raiders, and there's a lot for him not to like with both teams.
The Raiders give him a better chance of being the default starter, but has less talent, and is in cap purgatory. The Browns have more talent and appear poised to add more, but (I hope) want to give the much younger Hoyer a legitimate chance to win the starting job--and have those draft picks locked and loaded.
I'd like Matt here more than I'd like a Campbell or about any other venerable geezer, and believe that Chris Simms knows what he's talking about: The guy can still be pretty damn good, and already knows Kyle Shanahan and his offense.
I'm a big Hoyer fan, so I almost hope this falls through. If the Browns land Matt Schaub, there's a good chance that Brian won't even get his chance, and will be a default backup, at least until/unless Schaub proves that he really is done.
I personally won't bash the move, if it happens. Hoyer is learning a new system and lacks experience. He's only had about seven quarters as a starter. Schaub was, until last season's collapse, an elite quarterback.
With Hoyer, I could be wrong yet again, and he might not be all that after all. With Schaub, if he returns to the QB he was through 2012, this Browns team could immediately contend for the Division and the playoffs.
And yes they could. I'm really sick of hearing about "too many holes to fill" with over 50 million in cap space and ten draft picks. I think Cleveland's school system really needs to upgrade it's math curriculum. For that matter, why don't they teach critical thinking? Oh yeah--politics nevermind.
My pal Waittilnextyear boldly predicted that the Browns might shock everybody and draft Khalil Mack at four. I could see them using their first pick on Mack, but think it would be much smarter after a trade-down (if Bridgewater or Bortles don't fall to them, which I hope one does).
I hadn't realized before how versatile Mack is, and thanks to Tony Grossi and one of his smarter askers, I now know that he could play inside in this defense, helping to fill that new and enhanced hole at ILB.
Mack would drasiticly upgrade the whole defense in that role, and could play either of the two positions. For that matter, he could play any of the four positions, and in sub packages and situations could line up just about anywhere as a joker.
Tony has them drafting CJ Mosely at 26...can you imagine that? Mack and Mosely inside?
But Peter Smith (Dawg Pound Daily) hopes the Sammy Watkins hype is a smokescreen, and prefers Odell Beckham at 26. The link leads to his really thorough and in-depth analysis of this wide reciever (and returner).
Terry Pluto is also very thorough in trying to figure out Mike Pettine and his philosophy. Thanks to him, I now know that Pettine is a speed freak. As Terry quotes in the article, Pettine said that the easiest thing to do with a player in the NFL is make him stronger. It's a lot harder to speed him up.
That's why he likes Mingo so much, and having his druthers might have made that draft pick himself.
Beckham fits. He's a big-play guy who can play outside or in the slot. Peter is most impressed by his improvement as a reciever, which might be what sold me. When a guy gets this much better this quickly, his dedication and work ethic are self-evident, and he should keep improving as an NFL rookie.
Based on both Pettine's comments and Shanahan's semi-West Coast system, Beckham is a perfect fit, as he excels in the open field and after the catch.
I still like Mike Evans a lot--what a monster! But he won't be there at 26, and if it's a trade-down I'd now take Mack over him.
Regarding that trade-down, Tony Grossi said that Aaron Murray is not a franchise quarterback. I'm not sure what he bases this on. His average arm strength, or perhaps his height, I'd guess. But two of the top safeties I heard interviewed at the combine would probably disagree.
Murray is really advanced. He "moves" safeties with his eyes, and reads defenses.
And at yesterday's Ohio State workout, at least Gil Brandt had the courtesy to mention QB Kenny Guiton, who he feels will probably go undrafted and start out as somebody's fourth quarterback. I still think this guy could be the hugest sleeper in history.
Gil said he played "pretty well" in relief of the starter, which I found rediculous. He was lights out spectacular. But then Gil is always understated that way.
Tony still thinks Bortles will be there at four. He has Houston rolling the dice on Manziel with the first overall pick. I hope he's right, but think he's wrong.
Back to elementary mathematics and fixing the team in one offseason:
WR: The Browns need a Y reciever opposite Gordon. It would be cool to get another stud with number one potential, but this is not a need. They might or might not need a slot reciever, as Benjamin will return and Josh Cooper showed some good stuff late in his second season, but we'll stipulate: Let's add one.
That's two recievers in a draft and free agent market that are deep in them. Julian Edelman is just one of many veteran free agents who could come here and start instantly without breaking the bank.
For the hell of it, let's say they draft Beckham at 26, and sign one middle-tier free agent. WR fixed. Remaining draft picks everything except 26.
The "need" for a running back is, as I've said, massively overstated due to the presence of Rodney Obgannayafield, Rodney Bakerfield, and the zone-blocking rushing attack which will be used. But of course you can always get better, so they'll draft one in the middle rounds. Like Alfred Morris (zone blocking see how that works?)
The "need" for a right tackle does not exist. I fell for it, too. No, they need guards. Athletic, mobile guards who can zone-block and block in space. There are at least two of these in free agency who would hardly put a dent in the cap.
In addition, this is a special sort of player which man-blocking teams (ie the majority of teams) won't neccessarily want. This type of guard isn't neccessarily a road-grader. He might well be labelled a "wall-off" type of blocker, which other teams will pass on.
John Asamoah would be an inexpensive and really nice upgrade.
Corey Linsley, the center at OSU will probably be a third day pick because his arms are a little short and he's a tad over 300 lbs., but he clocked under 5 flat and ran agility drills almost like a tight end. Fourth round or lower, and there are a bunch of these guys.
So far I haven't used the #4 draft pick, or the second rounder, or either of the third rounders, ok?
Tight end? Well yes, another one like Cameron would really help. Kyle Shanahan doesn't use conventional in-line tight ends much, and although Barnidge is highly overdissed as a reciever, the backup situation should be upgraded due to the system.
But this is not a big need, as this offense can function with a third or fourth wide reciever in lieu of a tight end, and Barnidge is, after all, not as bad as most fans think.
Fullback is another position which is easy to fill out of the discard bin in the lower rounds, as the blocking fullback is not a popular position in today's NFL. Even the free agents are woefully underpaid for what they do.
Among the free agents, I like Henry Hynoski (was a NY Giant). He'll be cheaper than dirt, because after being signed as an undrafted free agent, he first injured his knee, and then his shoulder, missing all but three games in 2013.
Hynoski is a 6'2", 260 lb. battering ram and more than that. He's a superior athlete who can catch the ball and run with it. He's highly intelligent and was an academic all-american.
He'll be fully recovered from his fractured shoulder (he got it catching a pass, and I'm guessing that he landed on it). The two injuries will deprive him of leverage, and are nothing to ignore, but they don't as yet prove fragility.
Jordan Cameron through his first couple seasons seemed to be injured all the time. Prior to the 2013 season, he worked out with Tony Gonzales, and altered his workouts somewhat to enhance his durability. It seems to have worked out.
If the Browns can land Hynoski and he can remain healthy, he'll be a major asset.
I read one report which said that Hynoski wasn't offered a tender, but that they intended to try to sign him. Well, they signed the guy who replaced him when he was injured, and I doubt that the Giants want to carry two blocking fullbacks on their roster.
Naturally the most important position is quarterback, but the Browns already have Rodney Hoyerfield, might sign Schaub, they might draft Bortles or Bridgewater (or Murray or even Guiton)--but let's just say they use number four on a QB, and there you go: the offense is fixed!
Ramaining picks: the second rounder, both third rounders, a fourth rounder etc.
They don't need any defensive linemen, and don't really need any OLB's either. They now need two ILB's. Well they can't get Mack or Mosely any more (unless Mosely somehow manages to drop into the second round), but there are several other really good ILB's to be had right through the fourth or fifth rounds.
Ryan Shazier (OSU) is one of these, in the second round. Shazier is faster than most wide recievers, but is a little smallish and is a run-and-hit/cover guy that you don't want taking on guards. He's the guy who would return Roberts to a backup role, and the other position would still need to be filled by a different type of player.
Arthur Moats might be that guy (he can play inside).
So now I've used the second rounder. The rest of the picks still remain for cornerbacks and safeties.
As for that, the safety position, like fullback, is undervalued, and some really good ones are usually there in the middle and even late rounds.
The Browns are already looking hard at Jarius Byrd in free agency, and I believe they like him more than TJ.
That is a system thing too, as Pettine favors a Belichickian cover two with twin safeties for whom coverage is the priority.
Rodney Gipsonfield is this type of player, and fortunately they are ignoring those of you who think he should be replaced. TJ is undervalued in coverage, however, and is a great fallback position.
Rodney Aubreyfield also fits this role nicely as a really talented ball-hawking backup, and in sub defenses. He's just a little short at 5'10", and offenses would try to match him up with skyscrapers. Aubrey is really kind of a cornerback/safety hybrid.
In other words, one way or the other, safety is already covered--there is no need here.
Which leaves cornerback. Sam Shields just re-signed with the Pack dammit, but there are still free agents who could help if Farmer doesn't land a semi-sleeper in the third round or something.
That's the math of it. The whole team can be fixed in one offseason without using much of their cap space. Thank you for attending Remedial Mathematics 101.
Oh yeah and no thirty year old Steelers, please.
Friday, March 7, 2014
Jimmy Haslam Learns Fast
Will Burge of the Bleacher Report wrote a nice piece on the possibility that the Browns could be turning things around after the latest coaching and front office moves.
He's right about the national perception of the organization to date: a mess.
But a number of the guys on NFL Radio (Bill Polian, Pat Kirwan, Gil Brandt et al) have been more positive recently, as have other objective experts who've taken the time to actually do any homework.
I need to point out something that's been missed elsewhere: Jimmy Haslam only bought the team one season ago. He's not Randy Lerner.
Despite Ross Tucker's opinion to the contrary, Banner was fixed up with him by the league, and Mike Lombardi was Banner's choice. Will Burge is wrong in repeating that Banner was reviled throughout the league. He was highly respected as a negotiator and cap guy.
His baggage came as the result of his conflict with Andy Reid, as Banner did what he did with Chud and monkeyed around with the roster.
But no, Jimmy didn't know him and didn't seek him out. He accepted the league's best advice and took on a team of what he felt were professionals.
After what Reid did in KC (substantially with Ray Farmer's people, by the way) and the internal issues with Banner here...after his first season as an NFL owner...after consulting people like Bill Parcells and others...he decided he'd made a mistake and didn't screw around about correcting it.
That's not dysfunctional on his part. That's a guy who learns and adapts quickly, isn't afraid to admit he was wrong, and doesn't waste time fixing it once he is sure it needs fixing.
I don't care about the timing of it. He hadn't made up his mind yet. He needed to be certain he was not about to make a second mistake. HE was in on the Pettine interviews, and I believe that he is the one who said "The hell with the other guys. Hire him."
And Pettine himself was right about Haslam's inquiry into Harbaugh. For a second rounder are you kidding me? Where do I sign? What part of that is dysfunctional are you out of your damn mind?
I really like Pettine. because he gets that and doesn't let his ego get in the way of his thinking.
I think many NFL free agents and their agents are smart enough to see the positives of this front office and team going forward. Unfortunately, the shallow national perception of the team gives them leverage, and they will use it to demand some additional premium to come here. That's just business.
Joe Banner wouldn't pay it. Haslam knew it. Alex Mack was on his way out. Jimmy knew that too.
Firing Banner was just business too.
He's right about the national perception of the organization to date: a mess.
But a number of the guys on NFL Radio (Bill Polian, Pat Kirwan, Gil Brandt et al) have been more positive recently, as have other objective experts who've taken the time to actually do any homework.
I need to point out something that's been missed elsewhere: Jimmy Haslam only bought the team one season ago. He's not Randy Lerner.
Despite Ross Tucker's opinion to the contrary, Banner was fixed up with him by the league, and Mike Lombardi was Banner's choice. Will Burge is wrong in repeating that Banner was reviled throughout the league. He was highly respected as a negotiator and cap guy.
His baggage came as the result of his conflict with Andy Reid, as Banner did what he did with Chud and monkeyed around with the roster.
But no, Jimmy didn't know him and didn't seek him out. He accepted the league's best advice and took on a team of what he felt were professionals.
After what Reid did in KC (substantially with Ray Farmer's people, by the way) and the internal issues with Banner here...after his first season as an NFL owner...after consulting people like Bill Parcells and others...he decided he'd made a mistake and didn't screw around about correcting it.
That's not dysfunctional on his part. That's a guy who learns and adapts quickly, isn't afraid to admit he was wrong, and doesn't waste time fixing it once he is sure it needs fixing.
I don't care about the timing of it. He hadn't made up his mind yet. He needed to be certain he was not about to make a second mistake. HE was in on the Pettine interviews, and I believe that he is the one who said "The hell with the other guys. Hire him."
And Pettine himself was right about Haslam's inquiry into Harbaugh. For a second rounder are you kidding me? Where do I sign? What part of that is dysfunctional are you out of your damn mind?
I really like Pettine. because he gets that and doesn't let his ego get in the way of his thinking.
I think many NFL free agents and their agents are smart enough to see the positives of this front office and team going forward. Unfortunately, the shallow national perception of the team gives them leverage, and they will use it to demand some additional premium to come here. That's just business.
Joe Banner wouldn't pay it. Haslam knew it. Alex Mack was on his way out. Jimmy knew that too.
Firing Banner was just business too.
Monday, March 3, 2014
Browns Rumors
Will Burge of the Bleacher Report wrote a good article on the various rumors floating around about the Browns. I can't find anything at all wrong with it, which is rare.
In particular the pursuit of Sam Shields rumor is just too obvious not to be true.
Will's verdict on the rumor that the Browns actually liked Derrick Carr best and would try to draft him at 26 was false, and I tend to agree.
Will felt that this is another smokescreen, but it could be much simpler. Some clown like me could speculate about it in his blog. Some other clown with a wider audience could steal it from him, writing it as an actual prediction.
Several other pundits could repeat this. Then some bigshot reads all this and calls some people they think are Browns insiders to ask about this. These people might say "It makes sense", or "Could be", and here we go!
The only reason Ray Farmer would leak this deliberately would be if he wants one of the top three quarterbacks, and wants to discourage anybody from trading ahead of him to pull the rug out from under him. I still consider the aforementioned rumor mill explanation more likely, especially since I DID propose it myself in an earlier posting,
This isn't to say that Ray Farmer doesn't like Carr. I jumped off the Carr wagon due to his below 50% completions on passes over 20 yards, and his lower percentage under pressure.
But then Geno Smith had some statistical flaws. EJ Manuel looked better, but not perfect. And Carr did excel at the Senior Bowl, all day every day during practice, and then in the game.
On the other hand, I've now learned that he personally was really putrid in his Bowl game.
So I just don't know. But I agree with Will: I doubt that Carr would be there at 26.
I'm encouraged by recent mock drafts which seem to have Bridgewater or Bortles for them at four. I keep hearing the "There's no Andrew Luck" mantra repeated, but if Ray Farmer believes in somebody, it won't matter what more glorified versions of me think--he'll take him.
I'm a little surprised and pleased to hear that the (probably true) reporting that Rubin will not be released. Doug Dieken emphasises leadership a lot, and I guess he knows what he's talking about. Rubin seems to be the leader of the defensive line.
Others, including my man Terry Pluto, keep talking about sack numbers, and I keep reminding everybody that this is a 3-4 defense. Rubin is making a lot of money for a guy who doesn't get sacks, but he can play any of the three line positions, he's been Mister Reliable, and he's still young.
He also gives the coaches a lot of flexibility. Kitchen has developed into a good nose tackle, and Hughes can do that in a pinch, but Rubin has more range and is quicker. Taylor and Rubin can each be moved around to find the best matchups.
Will is right, though: It's still possible that Rubin could be released during training camp. I said p o s s i b l e.
The guy nobody talks about on the defensive line is Billy Winn, who is just all over the place making plays, and is only going to get better. The Browns might have the best 3-4 DL in the NFL. Here's the one unit on the team they can ignore.
If Joe Banner was ready to let Alex Mack walk, I'm gladder than ever that he's gone. How can you not value the center? The guy who makes all the line calls, blocks linebackers in space, takes on nose tackles are you kidding me? Next to the left tackle, the center is the most important position on the offensive line!
When the Browns drafted Mack rather than Clay Matthews, everybody bashed that move. Not me. While I would have been just as happy with Clay, I understand how important center is.
Cody Norman thinks the Browns should draft Watkins at four.
I agree that would be awesome, but it would be a wasted pick. The draft and free agency are flooded with wide recievers right now. Two number ones would indeed be scary, but a number one reciever is not a need at all.
If the Browns didn't need guard(s), better TE depth, now two ILB's, cornerback, fullback, maybe running back, and--oh yeah quarterback, Watkins would be a great pick at number four.
Cody talks about Watkins taking pressure of Gordon and Cameron. He would, but that's not the job. The number one (Gordon) beats double coverage with an accurate quarterback. HE takes the pressure off the number two, who beats single coverage.
Watkins on this team is redundant. He'd make bigger plays than the other alternatives, but the difference he would make over a Baldwin or somebody else overall could be downright negligable. There is only one football.
It's even possible that a guy like Baldwin paired with Gordon could be better. Baldwin makes catches even with cornerbacks glued to him. Taking him down is just an ordeal. He'll be doing a lot of downfield blocking in the NFL.
I believe that Ray Farmer will draft Bortles or Bridgewater at four, or else trade down. With Watkins on the board, somebody without a Josh Gordon will absolutely be a dance partner, if a QB-hungry team isn't. Keep up the speculation, Cody!
Vic Carruci has it right. Make the most of this very deep draft.
It's still possible that my dart hit the mark, and Guiton or Murray (if not Carr) will be the quarterback, in which case Farmer could trade down--perhaps more than once--and literally fix everything in one bold move.
In re that, please for God's sake stop reciting that mantra! Yes you CAN fix everything in one offseason! The Browns just sent five guys to the Pro Bowl, for crying out loud, and there are only 22 starters on a team!
They not only have a ton of cap space, but they're compelled to spend most of it on free agents. They don't need to replace all seventeen other guys you knuckleheads! Which defensive linemen do you want to kick to the curb?
Jackson's release does make ILB a bigger priority. I still insist that Roberts was partly a victim of Horton's system, which has some Tampa 2-like elements do it. He's a good run-and-hit linebacker. But I stipulate that yeah I'd like somebody good enough to put him in a depth/situational role.
The trade-down scenario could put Ray in position to nab CJ Mosely, and there are more DQwell Jacksons to be had down the list. Mosely is to this class of 3-4 ILB's what Watkins is to the wide recievers. I loved Jackson like everybody else, but CJ would be an improvement.
And no, and inside linebacker doesn't need to be huge.
Bortles, Bridgewater, or trade-down. That's my final offer. For now.
In particular the pursuit of Sam Shields rumor is just too obvious not to be true.
Will's verdict on the rumor that the Browns actually liked Derrick Carr best and would try to draft him at 26 was false, and I tend to agree.
Will felt that this is another smokescreen, but it could be much simpler. Some clown like me could speculate about it in his blog. Some other clown with a wider audience could steal it from him, writing it as an actual prediction.
Several other pundits could repeat this. Then some bigshot reads all this and calls some people they think are Browns insiders to ask about this. These people might say "It makes sense", or "Could be", and here we go!
The only reason Ray Farmer would leak this deliberately would be if he wants one of the top three quarterbacks, and wants to discourage anybody from trading ahead of him to pull the rug out from under him. I still consider the aforementioned rumor mill explanation more likely, especially since I DID propose it myself in an earlier posting,
This isn't to say that Ray Farmer doesn't like Carr. I jumped off the Carr wagon due to his below 50% completions on passes over 20 yards, and his lower percentage under pressure.
But then Geno Smith had some statistical flaws. EJ Manuel looked better, but not perfect. And Carr did excel at the Senior Bowl, all day every day during practice, and then in the game.
On the other hand, I've now learned that he personally was really putrid in his Bowl game.
So I just don't know. But I agree with Will: I doubt that Carr would be there at 26.
I'm encouraged by recent mock drafts which seem to have Bridgewater or Bortles for them at four. I keep hearing the "There's no Andrew Luck" mantra repeated, but if Ray Farmer believes in somebody, it won't matter what more glorified versions of me think--he'll take him.
I'm a little surprised and pleased to hear that the (probably true) reporting that Rubin will not be released. Doug Dieken emphasises leadership a lot, and I guess he knows what he's talking about. Rubin seems to be the leader of the defensive line.
Others, including my man Terry Pluto, keep talking about sack numbers, and I keep reminding everybody that this is a 3-4 defense. Rubin is making a lot of money for a guy who doesn't get sacks, but he can play any of the three line positions, he's been Mister Reliable, and he's still young.
He also gives the coaches a lot of flexibility. Kitchen has developed into a good nose tackle, and Hughes can do that in a pinch, but Rubin has more range and is quicker. Taylor and Rubin can each be moved around to find the best matchups.
Will is right, though: It's still possible that Rubin could be released during training camp. I said p o s s i b l e.
The guy nobody talks about on the defensive line is Billy Winn, who is just all over the place making plays, and is only going to get better. The Browns might have the best 3-4 DL in the NFL. Here's the one unit on the team they can ignore.
If Joe Banner was ready to let Alex Mack walk, I'm gladder than ever that he's gone. How can you not value the center? The guy who makes all the line calls, blocks linebackers in space, takes on nose tackles are you kidding me? Next to the left tackle, the center is the most important position on the offensive line!
When the Browns drafted Mack rather than Clay Matthews, everybody bashed that move. Not me. While I would have been just as happy with Clay, I understand how important center is.
Cody Norman thinks the Browns should draft Watkins at four.
I agree that would be awesome, but it would be a wasted pick. The draft and free agency are flooded with wide recievers right now. Two number ones would indeed be scary, but a number one reciever is not a need at all.
If the Browns didn't need guard(s), better TE depth, now two ILB's, cornerback, fullback, maybe running back, and--oh yeah quarterback, Watkins would be a great pick at number four.
Cody talks about Watkins taking pressure of Gordon and Cameron. He would, but that's not the job. The number one (Gordon) beats double coverage with an accurate quarterback. HE takes the pressure off the number two, who beats single coverage.
Watkins on this team is redundant. He'd make bigger plays than the other alternatives, but the difference he would make over a Baldwin or somebody else overall could be downright negligable. There is only one football.
It's even possible that a guy like Baldwin paired with Gordon could be better. Baldwin makes catches even with cornerbacks glued to him. Taking him down is just an ordeal. He'll be doing a lot of downfield blocking in the NFL.
I believe that Ray Farmer will draft Bortles or Bridgewater at four, or else trade down. With Watkins on the board, somebody without a Josh Gordon will absolutely be a dance partner, if a QB-hungry team isn't. Keep up the speculation, Cody!
Vic Carruci has it right. Make the most of this very deep draft.
It's still possible that my dart hit the mark, and Guiton or Murray (if not Carr) will be the quarterback, in which case Farmer could trade down--perhaps more than once--and literally fix everything in one bold move.
In re that, please for God's sake stop reciting that mantra! Yes you CAN fix everything in one offseason! The Browns just sent five guys to the Pro Bowl, for crying out loud, and there are only 22 starters on a team!
They not only have a ton of cap space, but they're compelled to spend most of it on free agents. They don't need to replace all seventeen other guys you knuckleheads! Which defensive linemen do you want to kick to the curb?
Jackson's release does make ILB a bigger priority. I still insist that Roberts was partly a victim of Horton's system, which has some Tampa 2-like elements do it. He's a good run-and-hit linebacker. But I stipulate that yeah I'd like somebody good enough to put him in a depth/situational role.
The trade-down scenario could put Ray in position to nab CJ Mosely, and there are more DQwell Jacksons to be had down the list. Mosely is to this class of 3-4 ILB's what Watkins is to the wide recievers. I loved Jackson like everybody else, but CJ would be an improvement.
And no, and inside linebacker doesn't need to be huge.
Bortles, Bridgewater, or trade-down. That's my final offer. For now.
Monday, February 24, 2014
Sleeper
Ohio State fans won't be surprised by this, and one of them first alerted me to this guy:
Ken Guiton is a 6'3" senior quarterback who didn't even start as a senior, but racked up astronomical stats in his few opportunities (two starts).
Naturally, he wasn't even invited to the combine, and nobody in media has even scouted him.
Not being a big Buckeye fan myself, I can only go by his stats.
For sure, he can run--averaging over 8 YPC. But his TD/INT ratio is excellent, and his completion percentage for 2013 was over 68%. His average completion was for around ten yards in '13.
I don't know if he has a strong arm, how well he reads defenses, how quick he releases the ball, or any of those other details about him.
And yeah, he played for one of the best teams in college football, with a little help from Carlos Hyde. And yeah, you wonder why Irvin Meyer didn't start him.
I'm just sayin, Tom Brady has sort of a similar background in college...
We've got a version of him here in Brian Hoyer.
He could be drafted very late, if not signed as a free agent. With his limited experience, he's a project unless, like Brady, he's a brain and has football OCD (that bar is pretty high).
I love the underdogs. Ray could have this guy up his sleeve.
Ken Guiton is a 6'3" senior quarterback who didn't even start as a senior, but racked up astronomical stats in his few opportunities (two starts).
Naturally, he wasn't even invited to the combine, and nobody in media has even scouted him.
Not being a big Buckeye fan myself, I can only go by his stats.
For sure, he can run--averaging over 8 YPC. But his TD/INT ratio is excellent, and his completion percentage for 2013 was over 68%. His average completion was for around ten yards in '13.
I don't know if he has a strong arm, how well he reads defenses, how quick he releases the ball, or any of those other details about him.
And yeah, he played for one of the best teams in college football, with a little help from Carlos Hyde. And yeah, you wonder why Irvin Meyer didn't start him.
I'm just sayin, Tom Brady has sort of a similar background in college...
We've got a version of him here in Brian Hoyer.
He could be drafted very late, if not signed as a free agent. With his limited experience, he's a project unless, like Brady, he's a brain and has football OCD (that bar is pretty high).
I love the underdogs. Ray could have this guy up his sleeve.
Saturday, February 22, 2014
Further Evolved Browns Draft Analysis
Up til now, I've been sort of drawn back to the herd and started thinking inside a box again. I was gone for awhile, but I'm back now:
Who says that Kyle Shanahan has to run the same offense he did under his father? Who says he has to have a strong-armed quarterback? Who declared him incapable of adapting his system to his personnel?
I took Jimmy Garropollo off the Browns' board based on arm strength, but I'm putting him back now.
Josh who? Slow down: Sure, we saw some spectacular deep catches, but more often he caught shallow slants and crosses (outside in or inside out), and took them to the house just like Jerry Rice. Gordon can do it all, and fits any offense.
Cameron? I don't need to even explain how he'd fit, do I?
Shanahan adapted his offense to RG3--see? He can actually think! Honest!
And it's not rocket science, ya know? All the short slants and crosses are in his playbook already. Should he draft a Garopollo or another guy without a strong arm, it's no big deal.
Bill Walsh's West Coast featured Popgun Montana, and was actually physical and run-oriented. It just didn't seem to matter that the defense didn't have to worry about deep passes.
Make no mistake: I think that probably Farmer/Shanahan/Pettine would like to see Bridgewater or Bortles (and not Manziel) at number four, but once again: What if the last QB is indeed Manziel, like I'm betting it will be?
Farmer will take him, right? WRONG! (OK here again I don't know for sure but bear with me).
Bill Polian summed it up best: It is possible for Manziel to be a successful NFL quarterback, but the odds are against him. For every Brees or Wilson, there are more than ten short/small quarterbacks who failed. If he's there late in the first or high in the second, you nab him. But at number four overall, you're betting a longshot on a guy that small.
There's more to it, of course. Sometimes his primary reciever is open, and he holds the ball. How much was him and how much was Evans? Why were 48% of Evans' receptions come-backs (as in he's moving back towards the quarterback, who is scrambling, several seconds after the snap)?
You're betting that he can learn to stay in the pocket--and see the field from it. You're betting that he can read through his progressions. That he won't get hospitalized in his second game.
If Farmer pulls the trigger on Manziel, he's putting his name on it. He's almost literally betting his carreer on a longshot.
And how did Farmer describe his ideal quarterback? Well, he described Rodney Hoyerfield!
However, at number four, the whole world is convinced that Farmer can't get his card to the podium fast enough....what's taking so long? Who's he on the phone with? Could he actually be considering trading this golden opportunity to get this future hall of fame quarterback when he's stuck with that bum Moyer...Boyer--what's his name?
Oh. My. God. With the fourth pick, the Oakland Raiders select Johnny Manziel.
That's another high second rounder (maybe more), and now the bidding is for Sammy Watkins. Surely Farmer won't even consider letting that guy go, but look at this...who's he talking to this time?
"It might not be who you think it is." Well, who might Farmer's quarterback be? Maybe Ray called old friend Tony Dungee, and Dungee said Aaron Murray.
He's another short guy--listed at 6'1". He tore his anterior cruciate ligament earlier this season.
Naturally there are knocks on him over and above his size, but if you read anybody writing about arm strength being one of those issues, delete them and don't visit them anymore. I first heard of him from one of the safeties at the combine who had played against him.
Prior to his injury, Tony Dungee predicted he might be the top-rated passer in this draft.
Most pundits don't agree, and now with his injury, he's almost off the map.
CBS Sports guesses that if he can recover enough to perform at his pro day, and teams think he can play as a rookie, he could be taken within the first two rounds.
But get this straight: The Browns have a quarterback, and his name is BRIAN HOYER dammit. Taking Murray after parlaying their top pick into more in this deepest draft in several years might just be what Ray Farmer is plotting.
Don't worry, Ray. Nobody reads this, except...oh crap let's see who steals it from me and pretends they thought of it themselves. At least then I'll be able to confirm who rejected my submission but mines me for original thoughts. How low is that?
But still don't worry Ray. Nobody will believe it. Unless another GM reads this, I mean.
Shaun Heidrick of Yahoo Sports cites three reasons why the Browns MUST draft a quarterback at number four, but his premises are flawed.
First, like everybody else, he assumes that Brian Hoyer just sort of lucked out or something for nine quarters and will fall on his face. That's a mighty big and illogical assumption. The odds favor a continuation of the extant trend.
Second, he assumes that Manziel is all that, and he might not be. You don't take a guy fourth overall unless you're pretty damn sure he'll make you look good. Shaun might be sold on Johnny, but needs to admit that Ray Farmer probably knows better than he does.
Turning to free agency, this is an awesome year for wide recievers. The draft is chock full of them, and there will be a glut of veteran free agents. This will drive the "prices" down.
In the draft, Watkins is a truly exceptional guy who will be drafted very high, but after that there are so many available in both markets that they'll slide down the draft boards, and come cheap as veterans.
Andy McNamara of the Bleacher Report, who uses the words "desperate" and "desperately" way way too often, wrote a really good piece on veteran free agents the Browns should target.
I hope he's not one of the people ripping me off for original thoughts, but he does comprehend that Kyle Shanahan wants to use zone-blocking, and will want athletic guards.
That's why he suggests John Asamoah of the Chiefs. The Browns have a great shot at him too, as after an injury he was unable to reclaim his starting job from Mitchell Schwartze's brother.
I wonder (don't know) what kind of blocking Andy Reid likes to use, but I know that Schwartze is bigger, and better-suited to a man scheme. Asamoah is a proven commodity, only 25, and wouldn't break the bank.
Andy also likes Rex Grossman, who knows Shanahan's scheme. He's 33, but we're talking about a veteran backup and leader here. Between him and Jason Campbell I lean toward Grossman, who at times in his carreer has been pretty damn good. Sometimes.
Julian Edelman hell yes. Donald Butler oh yeah...
By the way, there's no guarantee that the Browns will want to pay D'Qwell Jackson nine million cap dollars ya know? Rubin is younger, but is he worth that much? I love these guys, but I'm as cold-blooded as Belichick.
And CB Sam Shields--that would be awesome, and make this secondary downright dominating.
Unfortunately, other than Grossman and Asamoah, these players' teams will try hard to re-sign them. If they don't, others could drive the price up too high. I'd love to land just one of these other guys to really help this team.
By the way, Andy considers Edelman strictly a slot guy, but he can play outside as well.
I'm not as concerned about the slot as others are, as Josh Cooper late in his second season flashed some good possession stuff, and Travis Benjamin could yet emerge is a scary slot guy.
I can't find the article so that I can provide a link and attribution, as any honorable writer would, but another smart person suggested LeGarrette Blount as a free agent target. I've had the same thought.
The guy is a monster! He could wreak havoc in a zone-blocking scheme!
Of course, if Ray trades down one or three times, Carlos Hyde is no problem...
Who says that Kyle Shanahan has to run the same offense he did under his father? Who says he has to have a strong-armed quarterback? Who declared him incapable of adapting his system to his personnel?
I took Jimmy Garropollo off the Browns' board based on arm strength, but I'm putting him back now.
Josh who? Slow down: Sure, we saw some spectacular deep catches, but more often he caught shallow slants and crosses (outside in or inside out), and took them to the house just like Jerry Rice. Gordon can do it all, and fits any offense.
Cameron? I don't need to even explain how he'd fit, do I?
Shanahan adapted his offense to RG3--see? He can actually think! Honest!
And it's not rocket science, ya know? All the short slants and crosses are in his playbook already. Should he draft a Garopollo or another guy without a strong arm, it's no big deal.
Bill Walsh's West Coast featured Popgun Montana, and was actually physical and run-oriented. It just didn't seem to matter that the defense didn't have to worry about deep passes.
Make no mistake: I think that probably Farmer/Shanahan/Pettine would like to see Bridgewater or Bortles (and not Manziel) at number four, but once again: What if the last QB is indeed Manziel, like I'm betting it will be?
Farmer will take him, right? WRONG! (OK here again I don't know for sure but bear with me).
Bill Polian summed it up best: It is possible for Manziel to be a successful NFL quarterback, but the odds are against him. For every Brees or Wilson, there are more than ten short/small quarterbacks who failed. If he's there late in the first or high in the second, you nab him. But at number four overall, you're betting a longshot on a guy that small.
There's more to it, of course. Sometimes his primary reciever is open, and he holds the ball. How much was him and how much was Evans? Why were 48% of Evans' receptions come-backs (as in he's moving back towards the quarterback, who is scrambling, several seconds after the snap)?
You're betting that he can learn to stay in the pocket--and see the field from it. You're betting that he can read through his progressions. That he won't get hospitalized in his second game.
If Farmer pulls the trigger on Manziel, he's putting his name on it. He's almost literally betting his carreer on a longshot.
And how did Farmer describe his ideal quarterback? Well, he described Rodney Hoyerfield!
However, at number four, the whole world is convinced that Farmer can't get his card to the podium fast enough....what's taking so long? Who's he on the phone with? Could he actually be considering trading this golden opportunity to get this future hall of fame quarterback when he's stuck with that bum Moyer...Boyer--what's his name?
Oh. My. God. With the fourth pick, the Oakland Raiders select Johnny Manziel.
That's another high second rounder (maybe more), and now the bidding is for Sammy Watkins. Surely Farmer won't even consider letting that guy go, but look at this...who's he talking to this time?
"It might not be who you think it is." Well, who might Farmer's quarterback be? Maybe Ray called old friend Tony Dungee, and Dungee said Aaron Murray.
He's another short guy--listed at 6'1". He tore his anterior cruciate ligament earlier this season.
Naturally there are knocks on him over and above his size, but if you read anybody writing about arm strength being one of those issues, delete them and don't visit them anymore. I first heard of him from one of the safeties at the combine who had played against him.
Prior to his injury, Tony Dungee predicted he might be the top-rated passer in this draft.
Most pundits don't agree, and now with his injury, he's almost off the map.
CBS Sports guesses that if he can recover enough to perform at his pro day, and teams think he can play as a rookie, he could be taken within the first two rounds.
But get this straight: The Browns have a quarterback, and his name is BRIAN HOYER dammit. Taking Murray after parlaying their top pick into more in this deepest draft in several years might just be what Ray Farmer is plotting.
Don't worry, Ray. Nobody reads this, except...oh crap let's see who steals it from me and pretends they thought of it themselves. At least then I'll be able to confirm who rejected my submission but mines me for original thoughts. How low is that?
But still don't worry Ray. Nobody will believe it. Unless another GM reads this, I mean.
Shaun Heidrick of Yahoo Sports cites three reasons why the Browns MUST draft a quarterback at number four, but his premises are flawed.
First, like everybody else, he assumes that Brian Hoyer just sort of lucked out or something for nine quarters and will fall on his face. That's a mighty big and illogical assumption. The odds favor a continuation of the extant trend.
Second, he assumes that Manziel is all that, and he might not be. You don't take a guy fourth overall unless you're pretty damn sure he'll make you look good. Shaun might be sold on Johnny, but needs to admit that Ray Farmer probably knows better than he does.
Turning to free agency, this is an awesome year for wide recievers. The draft is chock full of them, and there will be a glut of veteran free agents. This will drive the "prices" down.
In the draft, Watkins is a truly exceptional guy who will be drafted very high, but after that there are so many available in both markets that they'll slide down the draft boards, and come cheap as veterans.
Andy McNamara of the Bleacher Report, who uses the words "desperate" and "desperately" way way too often, wrote a really good piece on veteran free agents the Browns should target.
I hope he's not one of the people ripping me off for original thoughts, but he does comprehend that Kyle Shanahan wants to use zone-blocking, and will want athletic guards.
That's why he suggests John Asamoah of the Chiefs. The Browns have a great shot at him too, as after an injury he was unable to reclaim his starting job from Mitchell Schwartze's brother.
I wonder (don't know) what kind of blocking Andy Reid likes to use, but I know that Schwartze is bigger, and better-suited to a man scheme. Asamoah is a proven commodity, only 25, and wouldn't break the bank.
Andy also likes Rex Grossman, who knows Shanahan's scheme. He's 33, but we're talking about a veteran backup and leader here. Between him and Jason Campbell I lean toward Grossman, who at times in his carreer has been pretty damn good. Sometimes.
Julian Edelman hell yes. Donald Butler oh yeah...
By the way, there's no guarantee that the Browns will want to pay D'Qwell Jackson nine million cap dollars ya know? Rubin is younger, but is he worth that much? I love these guys, but I'm as cold-blooded as Belichick.
And CB Sam Shields--that would be awesome, and make this secondary downright dominating.
Unfortunately, other than Grossman and Asamoah, these players' teams will try hard to re-sign them. If they don't, others could drive the price up too high. I'd love to land just one of these other guys to really help this team.
By the way, Andy considers Edelman strictly a slot guy, but he can play outside as well.
I'm not as concerned about the slot as others are, as Josh Cooper late in his second season flashed some good possession stuff, and Travis Benjamin could yet emerge is a scary slot guy.
I can't find the article so that I can provide a link and attribution, as any honorable writer would, but another smart person suggested LeGarrette Blount as a free agent target. I've had the same thought.
The guy is a monster! He could wreak havoc in a zone-blocking scheme!
Of course, if Ray trades down one or three times, Carlos Hyde is no problem...
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Ray's Quarterback Edited
First, english is my first language, so I should translate what Ray Farmer said for many of you: After saying he had a quarterback in mind, he said "He might not be (who you're thinking)".
"Might not" is not the same as "won't". Look these words up.
Anyway, what if it's not Bortles, Bridgewater, or Manziel?
NOTE: I don't believe that it was ever Manziel. I mean LaCanfora--yeah right. Manziel is a great player who most scouts and GMs I've heard from don't believe will EVER be a pocket passer. He's NOT like Brees or Wilson, and he WILL get the snot beat out of him.
Also. based on what I've heard from these legitimate experts, Manziel is the one most likely to be there at #4, and most of the Manziel hype is being manufactured or hallucinated by guys like LaCanfora.
It's possible that Ray could trade up for Bridgewater or Bortles, but back to the premise: Ray's guy is none of those three (HYPOTHETICAL DO YOU UNDERSTAND?)
My first thought was David Carr, but I now know that he had a dismal Bowl game. Big deal he kicked ass at the combine. But finally I hit secondroundstats.com and checked out the four top guys, including Carr.
Wow. Carr's completion percentage drops below 50% under pressure, while the other guys remain over 56%. Scouts have also questioned his accuracy.
I'm not running to the bank with this, since it could be that Carr is more willing to throw the ball away; it could be a good thing, and lines up with his really good TD/INT ratio. Still, the other three DID deliver under pressure more often, so it's got to be a red flag.
LATE EDIT: Carr is the worst on passes over 20 yards, so questions about his accuracy resonate. I'm off the Carr wagon.
Somebody else I know had that red flag. I think it was Brandon Wedone.
Still, Farmer knows best. We'll see.
Cousins? Could be, I guess. But Browns fans only know that he came in as a rookie and tore the Browns apart. While we were asleep, he started several games for Philly in his second year and sucked. (Well so did RG3 so it could be a team thing there's the asterisk).
It's not Garropollo(sp?). That guy is a West Coast QB with a Colt McCoy arm.
Mallet? I don't know. I hear all the hype, but it's just that. Only Farmer knows.
Josh Freeman? Don't laugh. I don't know what happened, but he was damn good for awhile and he'd be dirt-cheap (low risk).
If there's anybody else in this draft who might develop, I can't find him.
So I'm wildly guessing that possibly it's Carr, and that alarming under-pressure percentage drop just means that he knows when to throw it away.
The importance of Bowl Games is inflated in the eyes of pundits and fans. I've heard from Kirwan, Polian, and Brandt that it's not that big a deal unless it's actually the quarterback's fault.
ANOTHER LATE EDIT: Sounds like it was.
The scouting combine and Senior Bowl game means much more to scouts, as they are working against elite talent. Carr was the best QB both throughout the week and in the game.
Farmer, Pettine, and Shanahan will also have a much more accurate read on Rodney Hoyerfield than we do. Pettine will go over the 2.25 games he has on tape, and know exactly how a defensive coordinator would attack him.
He might disagree with the population of Oblivia and think he's already got a franchise quarterback.
I believe that if either Bridgewater or Bortles is there at number four, Farmer pulls the trigger. I even think that if he finds it neccessary to trade up for one of them, he might.
But if Manziel is the guy at four, I think he trades out. He'll of course be pretending he loves Manziel (no doubt he'll have it being reported as fact by guys like LaCanfora, which I think is funny).
The Raiders are pretty desperate for a quarterback, and might make a deal to move up from five. Could be worth a second round pick. And he might do it again--or take Carr who he liked all along. Maybe. I'm guessing.
I mean, he'll have all the tapes. He'll single out every pressure situation Carr faced and look for himself. Why did he miss? Was he dancing around with blown mechanics? Off his back foot? Or did he just throw it away because he's more mature than the other guys?
Note: Ray Farmer was a safety. Safeties are QB experts.
Mel Kiper has Bridgewater there for the Browns at four, and I would love for him to be right. Check him out on secondroundstats.com/!
And he might draft Manziel what do I know?
If Ray can't get a quarterback WORTH the number four pick, he will probably be able to, and absolutely should, trade down. The FOURTH-ranked wide reciever is Mike Evans.
Check him out on second round stats! A large number of his receptions were come-backs, as Manziel was scrambling--and yet his YAC yards were the highest of the four top wide recievers!!!
Although Watkins was very close, Evans also DROPPED THE FEWEST PASSES DO YOU HEAR ME?
Everybody (including Mike Mayock) is ranting about Watkins, and for sure he's a home-run hitter and yeah--the best WR in this draft. It would be awesome to have this guy AND Josh Gordon, but I'd rather have Evans and somebody else--like a really good guard or inside linebacker.
The Browns don't need another number one coverage-dictating reciever, but do need a (preferably) big, reliable number two who can move the chains and make people pay for doubling Gordon. (Make them pay by running them over...I really like that...)
And Mayock said it himself when discussing Carr at 26: If the Browns have confidence in Hoyer, why would they want a guy who, in Mayock's opinion, can be a good (but will never be a great) starter?
Good point!
I'm glad Ray is a brother. Political correctness should protect him from a lynching when if he doesn't trade his whole draft away to move up and get a not-Andrew-Luck, or if he passes on Manziel.
"Might not" is not the same as "won't". Look these words up.
Anyway, what if it's not Bortles, Bridgewater, or Manziel?
NOTE: I don't believe that it was ever Manziel. I mean LaCanfora--yeah right. Manziel is a great player who most scouts and GMs I've heard from don't believe will EVER be a pocket passer. He's NOT like Brees or Wilson, and he WILL get the snot beat out of him.
Also. based on what I've heard from these legitimate experts, Manziel is the one most likely to be there at #4, and most of the Manziel hype is being manufactured or hallucinated by guys like LaCanfora.
It's possible that Ray could trade up for Bridgewater or Bortles, but back to the premise: Ray's guy is none of those three (HYPOTHETICAL DO YOU UNDERSTAND?)
My first thought was David Carr, but I now know that he had a dismal Bowl game. Big deal he kicked ass at the combine. But finally I hit secondroundstats.com and checked out the four top guys, including Carr.
Wow. Carr's completion percentage drops below 50% under pressure, while the other guys remain over 56%. Scouts have also questioned his accuracy.
I'm not running to the bank with this, since it could be that Carr is more willing to throw the ball away; it could be a good thing, and lines up with his really good TD/INT ratio. Still, the other three DID deliver under pressure more often, so it's got to be a red flag.
LATE EDIT: Carr is the worst on passes over 20 yards, so questions about his accuracy resonate. I'm off the Carr wagon.
Somebody else I know had that red flag. I think it was Brandon Wedone.
Still, Farmer knows best. We'll see.
Cousins? Could be, I guess. But Browns fans only know that he came in as a rookie and tore the Browns apart. While we were asleep, he started several games for Philly in his second year and sucked. (Well so did RG3 so it could be a team thing there's the asterisk).
It's not Garropollo(sp?). That guy is a West Coast QB with a Colt McCoy arm.
Mallet? I don't know. I hear all the hype, but it's just that. Only Farmer knows.
Josh Freeman? Don't laugh. I don't know what happened, but he was damn good for awhile and he'd be dirt-cheap (low risk).
If there's anybody else in this draft who might develop, I can't find him.
So I'm wildly guessing that possibly it's Carr, and that alarming under-pressure percentage drop just means that he knows when to throw it away.
The importance of Bowl Games is inflated in the eyes of pundits and fans. I've heard from Kirwan, Polian, and Brandt that it's not that big a deal unless it's actually the quarterback's fault.
ANOTHER LATE EDIT: Sounds like it was.
The scouting combine and Senior Bowl game means much more to scouts, as they are working against elite talent. Carr was the best QB both throughout the week and in the game.
Farmer, Pettine, and Shanahan will also have a much more accurate read on Rodney Hoyerfield than we do. Pettine will go over the 2.25 games he has on tape, and know exactly how a defensive coordinator would attack him.
He might disagree with the population of Oblivia and think he's already got a franchise quarterback.
I believe that if either Bridgewater or Bortles is there at number four, Farmer pulls the trigger. I even think that if he finds it neccessary to trade up for one of them, he might.
But if Manziel is the guy at four, I think he trades out. He'll of course be pretending he loves Manziel (no doubt he'll have it being reported as fact by guys like LaCanfora, which I think is funny).
The Raiders are pretty desperate for a quarterback, and might make a deal to move up from five. Could be worth a second round pick. And he might do it again--or take Carr who he liked all along. Maybe. I'm guessing.
I mean, he'll have all the tapes. He'll single out every pressure situation Carr faced and look for himself. Why did he miss? Was he dancing around with blown mechanics? Off his back foot? Or did he just throw it away because he's more mature than the other guys?
Note: Ray Farmer was a safety. Safeties are QB experts.
Mel Kiper has Bridgewater there for the Browns at four, and I would love for him to be right. Check him out on secondroundstats.com/!
And he might draft Manziel what do I know?
If Ray can't get a quarterback WORTH the number four pick, he will probably be able to, and absolutely should, trade down. The FOURTH-ranked wide reciever is Mike Evans.
Check him out on second round stats! A large number of his receptions were come-backs, as Manziel was scrambling--and yet his YAC yards were the highest of the four top wide recievers!!!
Although Watkins was very close, Evans also DROPPED THE FEWEST PASSES DO YOU HEAR ME?
Everybody (including Mike Mayock) is ranting about Watkins, and for sure he's a home-run hitter and yeah--the best WR in this draft. It would be awesome to have this guy AND Josh Gordon, but I'd rather have Evans and somebody else--like a really good guard or inside linebacker.
The Browns don't need another number one coverage-dictating reciever, but do need a (preferably) big, reliable number two who can move the chains and make people pay for doubling Gordon. (Make them pay by running them over...I really like that...)
And Mayock said it himself when discussing Carr at 26: If the Browns have confidence in Hoyer, why would they want a guy who, in Mayock's opinion, can be a good (but will never be a great) starter?
Good point!
I'm glad Ray is a brother. Political correctness should protect him from a lynching when if he doesn't trade his whole draft away to move up and get a not-Andrew-Luck, or if he passes on Manziel.
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