Tuesday, June 11, 2019

2019 Browns Oline Concerns, Steve Wilks 101, Inro to DUH

Washington Post writer Neil Greensburg wrote a really good article on the Browns and their Offensive Line.

He points out that while PFF ranked the 2018 unit second in Pass Protection, Pro Football Outsiders ranked them 16th in that category.  (Both Services ranked them 18th in run-blocking).

I think Neil made an error in saying that PFF graded Mayfield 76 under pressure.  I don't have Premium Stats, but I remember a PFF writer saying that he was in the top 3 in the NFL under pressure.

Neil points out a couple more horrific stats, like running conversions on third downs, and tackles for losses (the Browns were almost the worst in both categories).

I was about to go upside Neil's head until he said "in fairness, this changed when--".

That's the point.  Things changed pre and post Carlos Hyde, then Tyrod Tylor, then Todd Haley and Des Harrison, and Neil is citing season-long rankings.

I can be fair, too: the Outsiders might be closer to the accurate Pass Pro ranking than PFF is, because Freddie had the Tight Ends chipping, and Duke Johnson did an outstanding job stopping leaks, as well.

When Mayfield scrambled, the Outsiders probably ignored it and still dinged Offensive Linemen who got beat, too.  Just because he can't catch the lil bastid doesn't mean a defender didn't beat a block.

And now there goes Zeitler!  That won't help at all.

Now for the good news:

1: The 2018 Offensive Line featured 2 new starters on Game 1, and one of these was Des Harrison, who started on the blind side for 8 games.

2: JC Tretter played most of the season with a high ankle sprain.  Wow!

3: I need Jake Burns to fact-check me on this, but I think Todd Haley was pretty conventional (ie a Jacksonian blockhead).

He didn't run RPOs or zone-block much, refused to let Nick Chubb play, and had Mayfield (and Taylor) "standing tall" and going vertical.

That exposed Harrison (and did Hubbard no favors either by the way) in pass-protection, and Harrison as a weak run-blocker.

4: I want to see the SECOND HALF stats for this Offensive Line in 2018 (you too, Outsiders!)  

How many times did YOU see NICK CHUBB stuffed for a loss?  One out of four?  No fkng way.  And I really doubt that he batted .500 on third down runs, too!

Here again, remember Todd Haley.  Dorsey traded Hyde to force him to use Chubb for several games before he was fired, and he was still running his cave-man scheme.

When Freddie took over, he changed everything, in one week.  

As it pertains to the Offensive Line, it was more Zone-blocking on runs, which was perfect for Chubb and easy for the blockers.  Chubb almost broke 1,000 yards in 12 games who wooda thunked it?

More slants and crosses, a shallower pocket, and quicker releases (with some RPOs) took Mayfield back to Oklahoma.

That and Mayfield's mobility stifled conventional edge-rushes (protecting the sub-Joe Thomas Tackles from even Pro Football Outsiders!)

I bet the Outsiders aggragate ranking for the Browns Oline in the last half of 2018 was top 8 overall.  (PFF might have them top 3).

Now, Zeitler's successor won't be as good as he was, at least in 2019, and probably not ever, but an apparent shift to mostly Zone-blocking and some RPOs will mitigate that a LOT.

Tretter will be 100% again, and Bitonio is Bitonio.  These are Pro Bowl talents, and I now believe that Rodney Corbettfield will be Tretter's primary backup in 2019, regardless of whether or not he wins the Right Guard Derby (which I think he will...but I want odds, see?)

Sigh...Corbett is a Bitonio clone.  You people are going to be embarrassed for calling him a bust.

Anyway, I concede that there are some question marks here, and zero veteran depth at Tackle, but with intelligent COACHING, this 2019 Browns Offensive Line should be pretty good; at least in the top third in the NFL...like I bet the Outsiders would tell you it was for the second half of 2018.

Now for the Defense: 

The Football 101 Cliffnotes on Off-man coverage says what I said.  

Steve Wilks's first ever appearance at Defensive Coordinator was with the 2017 Carolina Panthers, and he inheritted issues at cornerback.

Wilks set up his defense partly in response to these issues, and it's spectacularly ignorant to label him on that basis.

Real experts do expect a defacto Big Nickel base, and a lot of 4-man fronts based on the talent on THIS team, but none of these ex-players or coaches are calling Wilks a "zone guy" based on one year in Carolina and a Head Coach stint in Arizona.

Here in 2019, Steve Wilks has Denzel Ward, Mitchell, and Greedy Williams at Cornerback.  All excel in press/man, and he's never had this before.

I'm telling you again, because it's obvious, that Wilks will use press/man whenever it makes sense.

Jake Burns broke down some camp-tapes of OBJ vs Greedy and Ward (can't find the article).

Williams played off-man, which makes sense: If OBJ gets one step on Greedy, it's over...

I mean Williams can catch up to him (maybe, because he has longer legs), but it would take too long.

Anyway, when Greedy was drafted and people fretted over his skinniness and poor tackling I told you people that he could play off-man as well as anybody until he bulked up zzinggg!

The Seahawks' Richard Sherman comes to mind.

Off-man is meant to take away deep routes.  Even the fastest receivers can't blow by a capable off-man CB unless he screws up.  He will turn and run with him if he stays vertical.

Off-man doesn't require help from the deep safety because it caps off the deep routes.

By design, it forces the reciever to "break off" (more often inside than outside) while the off-man corner is still in his backpedal.  

A well-timed, accurate pass should be caught here, off this break and separation, but the Cornerback breaks along with the receiver, and remains "on top" of him, so he will run him down, or nail him if he turns upfield with the ball.

Off-man also works well vs "bunch" (aka "diamond") formations and pick-routes because of the cushion but I digress:

Anyway (duh) Greedy Williams looks great in off-man so far duh and (trust me) Terrence Mitchell won't be getting his job back.

But (sigh) you people still don't get it:

Denzel Ward will often press/man OBJs, while Greedy will off-man them.  Greedy will press/man taller, less explosive guys...

...well if he's strong enough at this point...at any rate, it's about individual matchups.

I'm not sure about this, but hope springs infernal: I HOPE that Steve Wilks will adapt his defense to his talent.

So far, it looks like he will.

His extensive use of Whitehead, moving Avery to the Defensive Ends room, and how he has used his outside corners are all good signs.

In re Avery, (blush-blush) I've been comparing him to (a human version of) James Harrison since he was drafted.

While I've also pointed out that he was (and still is) the fastest and quickest real linebacker on this roster, I get this:

James Harrison was a 3-4 OLB, but this is a 4-man front base defense, with 2 (or fewer) real linebackers in the real base.

Steve Wilks has decided that Avery should focus on sacking quarterbacks, and this makes a lot of sense:

1: Genard Avery is faster (and probably STRONGER) than everybody else in the Browns front 7.

2: It's a "rotational"/"depth" thing: Wilks needs to rest and preserve his studs.

You people don't get this, but in certain situations, vs certain offenses, Avery can...

Crap it's deep...Wilks can use Takitaki and Avery and/or Takitaki at DE in certain situations.  If you think that having any one or two of the starting front 4 off the field is unthinkable, think again: 

Genard Avery is the real deal as a passrusher (outside or inside).

He can sub for Garrett or Vernon!   HONEST!

Avery is faster, quicker, and stronger than both of them DO YOU UNDERSTAND?  He's also lighter and shorter, so nevermind...you idiots.

I might be overestimating Steve Wilks like I did Gregg Williams, but so far it looks like he is maxing out the talent he has here and now.

You people are fixated on a 4-man front based on the projected starters on the Defensive Line.

WRONG! Depending on the given Offense and situation, all sentient Defensive Coordinators try to adapt to the opposing offense however they can.

Every Defensive Coordinator in the NFL can run 3-4 or 4-3 and eveything else, DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

You don't.  Steve Wilks is a "4-2-5" guy, right?

Sorry to hurt your feelings here, but for at least the last 4 seasons, nickel defenses have been the real base defenses of every team in the NFL.

4-3, 3-4? If you believed that, you are a...nevermind but at least Wilks came out of the closet and TOLD you people about it.

Sadly, Wilks wasn't specific enough, so you people expect a 4-man front no madder wudd...

Yeah Wilks is a "zone guy" and the 4 down linemen are automatic nomaddewudd until they get injured or wear out duh...

You people...No I'm sorry: I remember being even dumber than you.  I hope Grossi never read the vicious, idiotic crap I sent him.

Don't get me wrong here: if Tony says this and I say that, "that" is correct.  

But Tony is a good analyst, and so is Mary Kay, and I am overjoyed to inform those of you who bash them that I was never as dumb as you! 

Obviously, I am better than both of them (and Pluto...and everybody else), but Terry, Mary, and Tony aren't idiots, so let up on them!

If you need to bash somebody, you have a target-rich environment.  Read one of my posts, and see who copies me 12-36 hours later and bash THEM.

OK






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