I alway look forward to reading Corey Kinnon's NFL Spin Zone articles on the Browns. He's got a solid grasp of both the football side and the business side, and isn't governed by his inner-fan.
Here, he identifies four veterans who he feels are on the bubble for 2019. He's kinda right, but kinda wrong:
Trevon Coley check. He makes too much money for what he has contributed so far, and Corey lists 3 guys who are after his job.
Seth DeValve...maybe. Corey sees him as in competition with Darren Fells and Demetrius Thomas, but that's not quite accurate.
These guys are first and formost in-line blockers. DeValve was a wide receiver who was converted to Tight End. DeValve is a receiver first, and in that vein he can do everything Njoku does; he's Njoku's backup.
In reality, the great Orson Charles has nowhere near the physical talent of DeValve, who last season was for the first time tried at fullback himself.
Yes, DeValve was a DePodesta Sashi guy and Charles is a Dorsey guy, but John will honor the Coach's preferences.
Speaking of which, if you remember what Freddie cooked up last season, and get the new emphasis on Special Teams, you won't be surprised to see four Tight Ends retained.
Britton Colquit makes sense. The cap savings Corey talks about is negligable, but this "Scottish Hammer" guy is apparently something special, with extraordinary range and hang-time.
Corey is definitely wrong on Terrence Mitchell. In the modern NFL, you need all the cornerbacks you can get, and Corey seems to think that TJ Carrie and Mitchell will be fighting over the third spot, and the loser needs to go.
No! Corey: You need FIVE Cornerbacks, because injuries happen, 4-wides are common, and Mitchell is a COVER corner; ie the primary backup for both Ward and Williams!
I'm not sure Carrie can do that. It's almost obvious that the Browns will keep Mitchell, Carrie, and at least one more Cornerback--why is Corey picking on Terrence Mitchell?
Corey isn't one of the gaping rectums who raid this Blog for intellectual property. If he was, he'd have listed Christian Kirksey as on the bubble (and Randall/Schobert/Johnson on the block).
Jake Burns' Film Room on Baker Mayfield outside the pocket has led me to re-think some of my own alalysis:
Both at Oklahoma and with the Browns, Baker seems to love stepping up to his left, where he re-sets his feet and has a great view of most of the field.
Well, he couldn't have done that so often in 2019 if Greg Robinson hadn't been doing a great job in pass protection.
The clear space Baker had there meant that Robinson had ridden the DE or OLB around behind the pocket.
You can count on both individual edge-rushers and Defensive Coordinators to take this away in 2019. The edge-rushers on that side will stunt more, and try to shake and go underneath Robinson more. DC's will send delayed blitzes left inside more.
I was all set to knock Randy Gurzi for picking Greg Robinson as one of the 3 most important offensive players in 2019, but I think he was accidentally correct...sorta.
Mayfield's peripheral vision/"awareness" is freaky, and he's very agile. If that edge-rusher gets across Robinson's face, Mayfield will either run away from him, or dart to his left...
Ok laugh at me now but see it later:
It's kinda like what Ebineezer Bell does, and it's rare, but now that I'm pointing it out to you, you will see it when Mayfield does it in 2019:
Mayfield (in the pocket) sees that the edge-rusher to his left has got Robinson committed to a footrace, then planted his foot, clubbed him, and is coming at him, with Robinson struggling to catch up, right?
So Baker moves to put Robinson between himself and his aspiring assailant!
3 steps to his left (and back), and so much for that edge-rusher, see? He had Robinson "beat", but now Robinson plows him under!
This is partly why I called Defensive Coordinators trying to figure out Baker Mayfield 2.0 "Little Dutch Boys".
Jake Burns should do a "Baker Mayfield Helping His Blockers" Film Room.
And yes, this is partly why everybody who has ever played with Baker Mayfield damn near worships him.
Ok I have to say this: i had many of the instincts I'm talking about, ok? I just wasn't physically talented enough to do much with it.
I know it when I see it. Baker Mayfield is just like ME (except a little bigger and faster and with a stronger arm and a faster brain and lots more accurate and better looking and charismatic but you know...otherwise exactly like me).
Seriously, I did have those instincts, and recognize them in Baker Mayfield more than even most real experts do, because it is rare.
I can't put it in words adequately, but I will tell you that Baker Mayfield will be an above average or excellent "in system" Quarterback, but will go off the charts when things break down and chaos ensues.
Jake Burns probably can't quantify this, because Baker pulls it off in every possible way. Scrambling left. Scrambling right. From the 3-step or 5-step pocket. Name your system. Baker Mayfield has not begun to fight!
Seriously, the hell with Sam Darnold--Carson Wentz isn't as good as Baker Mayfield.
Yeah "I'll believe it when I see it" good for you, Yoda!
Me? DUH I predict that Baker Mayfield 2.0 will be better than the rookie version was under 2 regimes...err...DUH.
Predicting a "sophomore slump" is sophomoric and predictable, not to mention idiotic. (Did you...zinggg nevermind)
I personally think that in 2019, Baker Mayfield is better than Big Ben already. Indeed, in the AFC Mayfield is already all up in Tom Brady's face.
If he was in the NFC I'd be saying the same about Baker vs Aaron Rodgers. Feel free to call me a homer/idiot/fanatic for having said this, but I wish I could collect your bets against me/Mayfield!
Doug Lemerisis tripled down on his 12-4 prediction for 2019 (which he made before 2018 was even over. Before the draft and free agency.)
Doug stresses that this is only for the regular season. It doesn't mean that the 2019 Browns won't lose their first playoff game.
Lesmerisis is one of my favorite analysts. I myself anticipated more FIXES and stuff and 11-5 or 10-6, but good for Doug sticking his neck out with his 12-4 (well backed up) prediction.
You people...
Did ANY of my Baker Mayfield analysis sink in? Nah! Hunt? Nah!
Pearls before swine again (except for the assholes who know talent when they see it and shamelessly rip it off).
You people keep track over the next 72 hours. You're going to see a bunch blabberage which sounds familiar to you.
...but won't know why, because nobody told you I was "somebody". You are predudiced against me. When some "official" writer recites what I wrote almost verbatum 24 hours later...
Ah fuck alla you (except Bub of course)!
I know I haven't insulted my 2 brothers, since they don't READ this Blog--so I'm pretty sure I've insulted the scumbags who rip off my...
Screw it okbye
Late add: Sorry I was frustrated. Those of you who don't just mine this Blog for stuff above your pay-grade: Thank you for your patronage.
Dan Justik is a smart young man, but does make mistakes sometimes, like in this article about Greedy Williams:
Dan was fine up til he talked about the Steve Wilks defensive scheme. My readers know this already but when it comes up I have to address it:
Wilks' sample size as a DC is microscopic, consisting of 1 year with the Panthers. He was Head Coach in Arizona, and while he surely influenced that Defensive scheme a lot, even 2 years isn't enough time to rubber-stamp (ie stereotype) a guy.
Every Defensive Coordinator is capable of running any coverage. You don't become a Defensive Coordinator without learning every system.
Dan has stuffed Steve Wilks in a "Zone coverage" box, and says that unless Wilks changes his system to accommodate Greedy Williams, Greedy's impact will be minimized.
...listen why don't you just stuff Wilks in the "mentally impaired blockhead" box, Dan?
Wilks obviously has THREE man corners now, including Mitchell (Carey also has man skills) so Wilks will obviously adjust to them.
In fact NO Defensive Coordinator is a "zone coverage" guy unless he is forced into it by a lack of man guys! Most teams run mixed coverages, because they have only one reliable man guy. And he plays man, while everybody else plays zone!!!
Then there's press/man and off/man. Off/man looks like zone, and Williams excels at it. You will probably often see Denzel Ward up in one WR's face, and Williams 4-7 yards off the line--but that's still man!
Jake Burns covered Wilks' favored Cover 3 zone, and it's pretty diabolical.
Well in man, the two outside corners don't "release" their receivers, so I guess most of what Jake showed us is going into storage for the time being.
Wilks might still show a Cover 3 a lot, but it will just be man instead.
...ok ok the slot receiver is different, because you can't press him due to lack of leverage. You can off-man him (to keep him shallow) if you have guys who can do that, and the Browns do...
Ok-ok see an off-man guy has great long speed, and is ideally taller, so that the idea of trying to blow his doors off by sprinting by him is not smart. He turns out of his backpedal and runs with you, and you're 2 seconds into your route.
So you break it off under him. Maybe you OBJ the guy and threaten him vertically to force a backpedal, then cut left or right, at which time your hopefully smart timing Quarterback hits you in-stride 4-6 yards downfield.
But real off/man cornerbacks are also great "in transition" and accellerate rapidly. They are built to answer this expected tactic. They roll out of their backpedal and into a dead sprint in a blink.
If the quarterback is late with his throw, or makes his receiver slow down, the better off/man corners will nail the receiver where he catches it, if he doesn't knock it loose or intercept it.
If the play is perfectly executed, the off/man corner is running parallel to the receiver a yard or 2 deeper, and the receiver can't turn upfield without getting nailed by him, see?
That's how off/man works. You're welcome.
Labels suck, and because of them you people don't see the nuances. Free safeties play zone. So do most linebackers, and the majority of Strong Safeties.
Every Defense is like 50% zone.
The 2019 Browns, to Dan Justik's surprise, might well be 60% (or more) man.
I want to see more of Mack Wilson in coverage, and wonder if Schobert is merely a brain or can actually run with these bigger guys. What about Whitehead?
Trust me Avery and Takitaki are zone guys. Do not be alarmed!!! This, too, is common!
Steve Wilks has options out the yinyang as the 2019 Browns Defensive Coordinator:
1: His starting front 4 is as good as any in the NFL, but with Avery and Takitaki he can go with 3 or even 2 down linemen. Takitaki was a DE until his senior year, and Avery is stronger and faster than HE is!
2: He can work off a man-coverage base; including man on the slot receiver. He can mix in zone here to screw offenses up, especially since off/man looks identical to zone.
And you people don't understand zone, either (sorry here I go again):
James Harrison and that other psychopath in Cincinnati just dropped back a few yards and dared any receiver to come towards them.
If you understood football, you'd understand that these guys were human road-blocks, rendering a big chunk of turf a "no-catch" zone.
Any receiver entering that zone is supposed to "sit down" and catch a pass standing still, rather than continue his route.
Well you'll have to trust me on this one: With 3 man corners and Damarius Randall at FS, Steve Wilks can manage to somehow use Avery and Takitaki HINT H I N T...
Jake Burns went nuts listing 25 things we learned about the Browns this offseason. Tons of links, but some of them were fluff.
Still, every link to HIS articles is worth checking out.
One is "Schobert's Tackling Must Improve", but I haven't checked it out, because I'm a heartless analytical guy and expect DePodesta Dorsey to trade him before he can back up his Brinks truck in 2020.
Jake has another one on how Kirksey needs to get back to his earlier form, but I haven't seen that one either, because Chris is overpaid for THAT performance level (whatever it was) and Adarius Taylor is...well, him!
Jake Burns is a "football guy" (who respects analytics as well as film analysis btw), but doesn't get into the business side too much.
Me? I got Avery, signed Taylor, and just drafted Takitaki and Wilson. DO THE MATH!
PART of the math is Steve Wilks...my god was it Randy Gurzi who predicted that the 2019 Browns would have S E V E N linebackers!?!
Why do I bother? Okbye.
PFF managed to rank the 2019 Browns' roster 18th, but we shouldn't be offended, or take it personally.
They based their player rankings on all the usable history they had. You can't reliably predict improvements, and clearly PFF wasn't even comfortable weighting the later games in 2018 more heavily than game 1.
On that basis, the teams they ranked in the top 5 made sense, except for the Patriots. Is Tom Brady getting bonus points?
...well I suppose they might well have extraordinary depth, Edelman is a superstar, great Oline...well I won't quibble.
A bunch of Browns players graded out below average, but that gets misleading.
One of those was Larry Ogunjobi, Avery's ranking was based on his Senior year, in which he was mainly a move-around passrusher. Nor is he likely to start, when the dust settles.
Schobert and Kirksey ranked low, mainly due to Kirksey's inefficiency in coverage, and Schobert's missed tackles. The combination of fewer fronts fielding 3 real linebackers makes Joe tradeable and Chris cuttable.
By the way, quit fretting about Kirksey's dead cap hit. It's irrelevant for 2020, and the balloon payments aren't due til 2021.
I wonder what PFF did to Oliviere Vernon, who played linebacker last season. Did they ding him for coverage?
I guess they defaulted Corbett to RG...what numbers did they use to rank him?
Both Offensive Tackles ranked below average, and that might be about right!
Earlier, I picked on PFF for ranking the Browns Offensive line too high when it was the combination of Mayfield's quick decisions and mobility, plus Kitchens' much smarter playcalling (and use of more running backs and Tight Ends) that made Robinson and Hubbard look so great.
Of course, I think they should be at least average this season, as they'll be helped by RPOs and Zone-blocking.
PFF isn't accounting for youth, or predictable growth in these rankings:
1: Gregg Williams limited Myles Garrett to two passrushing moves last season. Now he's got some help, too--he's about to go apeshit in his third season.
2: Denzel Ward enters only his second season, and presumably will have learned not to lead with his face when tackling huge guys.
*No Ward is not the "number one cornerback" no matter what. Greedy Williams will take the taller guys, and Ward the explosive short guys. Matchups matter, people!*
3: OBJ will have a higher average depth-of-target, and somewhat better YAC average with Mayfield, and likely more Touchdowns too. Mayfield is more accurate and aggressive than Eli, and (see last post) makes huge plays when things break down.
4: Callaway made huge and impressive progress throughout 2018 as a raw rookie who had hardly played any in college. This is why, despite Rashard Higgins' own great performance, Callaway is nominally ahead of him on the depth chart.
If you want to see what Callaway can turn into, look no further than OBJ.
5: Njoku's "drops" are being overly inflated, at least though 2018. For some strange reason, he became much more dependable when Mayfield took over for Taylor, and moreso when Freddy took over for Mywayorthehighway.
He enters only his third season, and is another guy primed to go apeshit.
Another third year player is Larry Ogunjobi, who PFF graded as below average. I'm not sure how that happened. Does PFF separate the Zero Shade (which Ogunjobi played) from the 3-technique?
Because on most neutral downs, the Nose Tackle has to engage the center (and invite a double-team) until he confirms it's a pass play.
His momentum is stalled, and he has to get past two guys to pressure the QB, while the 3-tech DT shot a gap and is in the backfield already. PFF must be dinging Larry's passrushing grade here (maybe).
And then, Larry did seem to wear down later in the season. Gregg Williams didn't think he had the depth to rotate much, so the Defensive Line in general wore down (except for Garrett, who isn't human ergo doesn't count).
But WE watched the games, so we're not worried about Ogunjobe 3.0.
6: How did PFF grade Morgan Burnett? They based it on his 2018 season with the Steelers, in which he played the deep middle instead of Strong Safety, which is where he'd been a decent starter for most of his carreer.
7: What about Baker Mayfield himself? He broke Peyton Manning's and Russell Wilson's tied record for NFL rookie touchdown passes in 13.5 games with a mid-season regime-change, and ranked among the best QBs in the NFL in every category!
Stay with me here: He did this with fellow rookie Callaway, Landry, Njoku, and an injury-driven "rotation" of Willies, Higgins, Ratley et al, and he made them ALL look good!
Nobody who knows anything at all about football expects a "sophomore slump" out of Baker Mayfield. No, he'll be better this season, and OBJ is just a bonus for him.
See my last several posts (but especially the last 2):
The guy gets BETTER after things break down. Defenses are Little Dutch Boys trying to stop him.
Stay with me here: it would be different if he was less accurate and weaker moving to his left than to his right, or innaccurate throwing without his feet set, or whatever.
Then, a Wilks or Williams or somebody could kind of force him into trying to do what he sucks at. But as-is, Mayfield will just laugh and mess you up in another way.
8: (Redundacy alert): Schobert and Kirksey are expendable right now. In the Wilks predominant 2-Linebacker Defense, Takitaki and Wilson (or somebody) could replace and outperform them---even per PFF.
Dan Justik came back from a dumb article I commented on in my last post to projectimate that Demetrius Harris, the FA TE John Dorsey signed from KC, will play significant snaps in 2019.
YEP! Since being discovered be Dorsey himself as a basketball player dabbling in football, Harris has been mainly a blocker and backup in the NFL, but he's actually a fine receiver.
As Dan points out, Freddie Kitchens ran a lot of 2/3 TE sets last season. While that was partly to prop up the Tackles in pass-pro and overpower people on the run, Fells caught some passes.
Njoku is obviously the Tight End who scares defenses most as a receiver, but Harris is 6'7" and an easy red-zone target for Mayfield, who the defenders can't afford to take seriously.
Errah...Baker Mayfield finds these guys, right? (Is any of this sinking in yet?)
Sorry about this, but Nick Chubb has a thing or 2 to say about Baker Mayfield, as an enemy as well as a teammate...
I'm sorry! Baker Mayfield is the real deal, ok? I can bash him for going off on Duke Johnson and kinda/sorta "stalking" Hue Jackson and some other punk stuff, but this is what it is. Baker Mayfield in 2019 will be as good as any QB in the NFL.
I don't envy Freddie Kitchens trying to curb his team/fans enthusiasm for 2019.
Greedy Williams got way out over his skis in predicting a Browns' Superbowl in 2019, but what Jarvis Landry said has been misinterpreted:
Jarvis only said that the GOAL for 2019 (or any year) is the Superbowl.
How do you lump that in with Greedy's prediction?
Why is critical thinking not taught from first grade on up? (That was a rhetorical question, given the political insanity unfolding these days, but I digress):
Put away that broad brush, ok? People that want to generate hits want to turn the Browns into an unreality show (or Soap Opera), and Colon Cowturd will no doubt continue to lead that charge.
"Big Personalities" plus a rookie Head Coach will destroy this team right?
What are you talking about here? OBJ and/or Landry demanding more targets? Mayfield...what he can't deal with that but WILL get in Kitchens and Monkens' faces?
You people. You can't separate Ebineezer Bell and Antonio Brown from OBJ and Jarvis Landry. They're all the same to you.
I need to figure out what Quarterback you think matches Mayfield politically. I can't think of...well maybe Aaron Rodgers...
Whole new can of worms: Kitchens aint McCarthy, Mayfield will have discretion, and---nevermind.
If you buy the crap these ass-hats are selling, you need...well you need to be taught critical thinking.
Too late for most of you. Okbye.
Jake Burns has been busy of late, studying different Browns' players to show us what they do best.
Kareem Hunt was one of these. Jake focussed on his ability as a receiver out of the backfield. His analysis speaks for itself, but I noticed a few things:
Several of these (KC Chiefs) plays were run out of 21 and 22 sets, and off play-action. That's what Freddie Kitchens did a lot of last season after he took over the Offense.
Freddie and co were lining Hunt up at WR during camp this preseason, and that seems to be a new dimension added to his game as he enters his third season.
This is very promising, since if Hunt can line up wide and run good WR routes, it can really screw opposing defenses up.
You remember Todd Monken? The Air-Raid guy?
Well, when the Chiefs ran 21 and 22 personnel, opposing defenses had to:
1: CONTAIN Patrick Mahomes.
2: Stay on top of Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce.
3: Figure out how to do that AND stifle actual handoffs to a running back.
I would, if possible, stick with a Big Nickel here instead of a base Defense, but a dime is kinda out of the question.
Hunt was a conventional Running Back (who could catch) with the Chiefs. Hill and Kelce pulled the best coverage people away from the box, and Hunt took short passes deep.
Jake showed one play in which Mahomes bought extra time, and Hunt took his sideline route deep as Patrick scrambled. Mahomes hit him with a bomb.
I have to redundate here that Mahomes and Mayfield are very similar (which is why they were first and second in outside-the-pocket efficiency in 2018).
Anyway, on that play Hunt went for broke instead of looping back around or something because Mahomes is Mahomes, and his scrambles meant he was looking DEEPER than he was "on the blackboard".
To redundate: Most other Quarterbacks in that situation are looking to bail out. Mayfield and Mahomes (and Rodgers) are the opposite. THEY are out for BLOOD when they scramble.
Which seques me into Jake Burns on Mayfield:
Jake isolates several plays in which Baker fled the pocket and made a great play. In every case, except on a condensed field, he looked and threw intermediate or deep.
Even some of the real experts don't seem to realize how rare a talent this is, and how utterly critical it is in the most critical moments.
Over and over and over again, Big Ben has been "sacked"---NOT---and made a huge play to beat the Browns, and maybe the majority of YOU people think it's a fluke...cubed to the third power or something.
But it's not "luck". Not even Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers are like Mahomes, Mayfield, and -gag- Big Ben.
Mayfield and Mahomes are better, because they can deliver accurately and deep running left almost as well as running right, and their effectiveness as runners keep defenders on their heels.
Numberfire, PFF, Madden, and Pro Football Pro Football Outsiders need to figure out how to quantify and measure:
"Making Huge Plays Outside the Pocket After Things Have Broken Down and It's Playground Football Except At the Highest Level and Stuff".
This is a rare trait. Most Hall of Fame Quarterbacks didn't have it.
Try to grok this: Baker Mayfield will execute as well as most Quarterbacks "within a scheme". He will run through his checks and make decisive anticipatory throws on-time.
He'll complete over 65% of his passes for a very high yards per-attempt, and will not get sacked much. He'll never rank below #7 there.
But when things break down, if you have that rare Quarterback who just THRIVES on that stuff? Who is BETTER outside a system than he is inside it?
Do you get this? For every second Baker Mayfield lasts on a given down, it gets WORSE for the Defense. Not better.
For at least 26 other NFL Quarterbacks, the opposite is true. They have receivers running back toward them just to get the ball out of their hands so they can get an easy few yards instead of throwing it away!
Do you understand? If you push one of these rare Quarterbacks into a corner, he is MORE likely to cripple or kill you than he is to throw it away?
Baker Mayfield is Brian Sipe on steroids, and the Kardiak Kidz had nowhere near this much firepower.
This is going to be fun.
I need to tell some certain writers to stop stirring up trouble.
Micheal Thomas may sign for 22 mil/year, and these guys expect OBJ to try to renegotiate as he enters only the second year of his deal...asking for more than Thomas!?!
These pundits are exposing their prejudice, and a tendancy to stereoptype.
This crap first came up when Antonio Brown was traded to the Raiders, and they renegotiated Brown's old, outdated contract.
These people expect OBJ to want more money too, because...well that's what you do when you get traded, right?
And of course Antonio Brown and OBJ are the same, right? They want the ball and money above all else, hold out, and don't show up and stuff, right?
That's crap. OBJ is wierd, but not a selfish mercenary like Antonio Brown--or Ebineezer Bell. THEY would probably think they deserved more than Micheal Thomas, but what tf makes you think OBJ is that kind of scumbag?
And anyway, check with PFF, Numberfire, and Pro Football Outsiders about OBJ vs Thomas.
The inmates haven't taken over the alylum. Contracts are contracts, and will not be renegotiated annually based on new contracts.
If OBJ gets difficult down the road, Dorsey will trade him. But he won't get difficult in 2019...unless he reads the crap you gumballs are writing and thinks he can get away with it...you know, since it never would have occurred to him otherwise?
Ed Aviv (a Baltimore guy) wrote a great analysis of the Browns vs Ravens.
Ed notes that the only NFL team to slow down the Ravens' devastating running game in 2018 was the Chargers, who used a Wilksian Big Nickel, with 2 safeties doing linebacker stuff.
As he points out, the Ravens just added Ingram to their running back stable, and have a beastly run-blocking Oline with Tight Ends and stuff.
Ed does a great analysis, but doesn't think the Browns can do as well as the 2018 Chargers did.
That's the only correction I have to make: The Browns have to have at least as much run-stopping talent at safety as the Chargers did, and are 3-deep in shut-down cornerbacks who can stifle both outside receivers without help.
Ed really knows his stuff about both teams, and was scrupulously objective (how rare that is!), so except for that comparison, this was an outstanding article.
I can add a little to it:
1: Schobert might well be traded before the teams meet. Mack Wilson could replace him in this situation.
2: Christian Kirksey, assuming he isn't released, probably won't play much vs the Ravens, as Wilson could also replace him, and as Takitaki might well get in there ahead of him.
Ed considers each and every back 7 player as both a coverage and run guy.
Nah! The Ravens can't send more than 5 receivers, and will rarely send that many, even in obvious passing situations.
There will be one linebacker who can take on offensive linemen and stop (or at least re-route) runs. If not Takitaki, this could be Genard Avery.
3: Again: Ward, Williams, and Mitchell. In Wilks' system, they can cap off the deep routes without Randall's help.
Blahblah in reality Lamar Jackson will never be very accurate, or have great touch. He especially isn't built to nickel and dime his way down the field to crossers and slanters.
Jackson might be the scariest dual-threat ever in the NFL, and has a great arm too, but Steve Wilks and these Browns coverage guys got the answer to Jackson's arm.
His legs are a separate issue...
4: As Ed Aviv would stipulate, the 2019 Ravens offense will be the most gimmicky and run-oriented in the NFL. They will seek to bludgeon defenses into submission via physical domination, and monopolize the play-clock.
Lamar Jackson can't be dismissed as a real quarterback. He can strike deep at any time, and his lethality as a runner forces defenses to contain more than attack him.
It probably won't work well enough vs this 2019 Browns defense. The Ravens will do some damage, but those long bombs? Unlikely to succeed.
Game-flow is critical: The 2019 Ravens Defense is less talented than the 2018 version, and the Browns Offense is better.
*You know not just OBJ but Mayfield/Callaway/Chubb entering year 2, Njoku year 3, Hilliard, Kitchens/Monken in charge and the other obvious stuff*
The Ravens' Defense won't stop the Browns Offense anywhere near as well as it did in 2018.
The Browns should establish an early lead, and build on it. Once the Ravens are in a "come-back" situation, they're DEAD DEAD DEAD.
Ed agrees with me that the 2019 Browns Defense has the edge on the 2019 Ravens Offense. He just misses a couple minor points and doesn't factor in "game-flow".
Ed Abib is extremely smart. I wish he were drinking beer with me now, because I know he would be admitting that the Browns are gonna kick the Ravens' asses by now.
Really it's the Steelers that scare smart people me. The Steelers have a REAL quarterback. Their Offensive talent losses are overhyped, and a significant offseason upgrade on defense largely ignored.
It probably won't be enough, of course (even with the "mystique" and history and stuff), but with a few deliberately bad calls by referees (see "Bottlegate"), the Steelers could derail the Browns...
By the way also see "Red Right 88". THAT was a fix too. You are not allowed to tackle receivers in the end zone...well until they touch the ball, anyway...and refs are supposed to---nevermind but a FIX or 2 won't surprise me.
But I digress: The Bengals actually scare me more than the Ravens do, since they have more overall talent, plus a real quarterback.
I expect the Browns and Steelers to finish 1st and 2nd in the AFC North (or the Steelers/refs 1st and the Browns 2nd), but am not even sure the Ravens can beat out the Bengals for 3rd.
....okbye
The name Daniel Eukale is bouncing around the echo chamber as a former undrafted free agent the Coaches "noticed" in his second season with the Browns.
I couldn't find any numbers on this guy, and his college production was so-so. I know that he had a problem getting his weight up over 300 lbs, which is surprising for a guy with obvious Polynesian bloodlines (oh no did I offend thumbody?)
Anyway, there's not much the kid could have done to impress anybody in non-contract drills. They probably think he looks quicker or is stronger or something; that he worked hard in the offseason and is working hard now.
Naturally, I'm in Eukale's corner, because he's an underdawg. There are a few analytical good signs:
Eukale started only 2 seasons in college. After a season on the Browns' Practice Squad, he should indeed be making a big leap forward this season, if he's been dedicated. The question is, how big a leap?
Eukale's only shot here is as the 3-technique penetrating DT (not the nose). I guess he has a sweet first step and great mobility/athleticism, and he's 6'4" so he has good length.
As you'll see if you click on THE only scouting report I found on the guy, in college he got pushed around. While I assume that he's bigger and stronger with better technique now, at a shade over 300 lbs it's too much to expect him to hold his ground in the NFL yet.
But if he's a real disruptive inside penetrator, maybe he could spell Sheldon Richardson on obvious passing downs.
Mary Kay Cabbott says we should keep an eye on 5th round Linebacker Mack Wilson, and she's correct.
Mary thinks he could "challenge the starters for playing time". I can translate that: He can elbow Kirksey aside and/or render Schobert even more expendable.
Mack Wilson is a real linebacker who was projected to go in the third or even second round. He played Division 1, for an elite program, and that is significant for linebackers.
Genard Avery aside, I also think you should keep an eye on Sione Takitaki, who John Dorsey drafted 2 rounds before Wilson for a reason.
MKC and most of the other pundits seem tone-deaf to the fact that there's a new Defensive Sherriff in town named Steve Wilks.
Mack Wilson can cover well...and? I don't expect coverage skills to be at a premium for the two (or fewer) linebackers Wilks will field over 80% of the time in his nickels and dimes.
Zzzinggg why do you people think Jermaine Whitehead is a fluke? Offenses can't legally send more than five receivers downfield. Did you know that?
And if they do send 5, that's an empty backfield. Do you know that?
Running backs aside, most of the time, modern NFL Offenses put 3-4 receivers on the line of scrimmage, and Wilks' 5 DBs are there for them...are you with me so far?
It's wise in 2019 to field one real linebacker due to bastids like Belle, Johnson, Hunt, the Johnsons etc sometimes situationally, but for Steve Wilks? Not 2. 6 in coverage is enough.
You people are also wrong about a 4-man Defensive Line being etched in stone.
With Avery and Takitaki, Wilks can use 3 (or even 2) down linemen in some situations. Takitaki was a Defensive End until his last year in college, and Avery is an accomplished edge pass-rusher.
-snap-snap- Mack Wilson and Takitaki and Avery should play a lot in 2019 in a Steve Wilks Defense.
No offense. I'm still trying to figure it out myself, but you need to stop confusing Wilks with Greg Williams, ok?
Andrew Gribble did a great job of guesstimating the last few roster spots and explaining why.
He reminded me of Jhavonte Dean, who is a 6'1" CB who has excelled in camp so far, and who I told you awhile ago could mutate into a Free Safety in time.
Andrew was pretty good at projecting roster spots per position group here, but I think there will probably be a fifth safety (11 back end players) in this Wilks defense.
Now...I gotta say this, Randy: A week or so ago, some nimrod expected the 2019 Browns to keep 6 Linebackers active.
We're in brain-transplant territory here; way beyond "wow!".
I could be wrong, but I don't expect more than 5 "official" Linebackers in an 86% nickel/dime defense...err...you GET this, right?
Avery Takitaki Wilson Taylor (oh sorry remember: Schobert is on the block and Saint Kirksey on the bubble remember?)
Taylor and Wilson are real linebackers, Takitaki is underrated in space, and Avery is an athletic freak; like I've said: A human, faster, more explosive James Harrison.
-snap-snap- Takitaki and Harrison Avery can cover in zone. This works for Steve Wilks, since for him...I mean if anybody but me has paid attention...duh they're here to attack, disrupt, and duke it out with blockers first and foremost.
You people...
Zing-zing-zing. You won't find this stuff anywhere---oops I mean you WILL find it 24-36 hours from now all over the fkng internet ;.!$@*%#🖕 but what do I know fuck alla you okbye
Cory Kinnon has wondered aloud whether or not John Dorsey is spending too much now, or might in the future.
My readers get all this, but Randy Gurszi thinks it's too early to worry about that.
Iran doesn't have nukes yet, and North Korea would lose a war with us, too, so no need to do anything about them, either, right?
It's never too early to plan ahead. Hell, Gurzi himself quotes Corey's article as he lists a bunch of core players who, if retained, will gobble up all of the current 37 mil cap surplus at the end of THIS year.
This is of course why I expect Schobert and Johnson trades, and even considered the possibility of a Randall trade as well, and why Cory expects Jarvis Landry and his salary to be leaving this coming offseason.
You people need to think about that Randall trade I posited. If you think that would be insane, wait til the end of 2020. You'll be caterwalling about why they let this guy or that guy go "for nothing".
Corey Kinnon might be a GM. Randy Gurzi? Nope!
Anyway though I reiterate: Paul DePodesta is here to keep Dorsey out of trouble (whew!)
Gil Brandt lists the Browns as the 9th most talented team in the NFL.
Gil is a Hall of Fame talent evaluator and GM who built the Cowboys dynasty, so I can't throw mud on him, but...huh?
He says the Eagles are the most talented team, so let's just compare his number 9 to his number 1, shall we?
QB: Carson Wentz is big and strong like Troy Aikman. I happen to know that Gil likes Mayfield a lot, but is "defaulting" here. To me, it's like Big Ben vs Rodgers. I'll generously call that a wash.
RB: Jordon Howard is NOT better than Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt. Gil no doubt gives Howard the nod because he's been around longer. No knock on the guy, but the Browns's stable is better.
I don't know enough about the Eagles Offensive Line, but I know Jason Peters is a stud Left Tackle. I have to mail this one in to Gil, but there is Bitonio and Tretter, so if the Eagles is better, it's not a LOT better.
TE: Ertz...yeah ok. Njoku could be as good as he is this season, but has yet to prove that. But the Browns do have nice depth at TE (H-back)...is Gil considering depth?
WR: Gil no doubt thinks DeShaun Jackson, Nelson Agholar, and Alshon Jeffries are better than OBJ/Landry/Callaway, but I disagree.
Jackson is ancient, Jeffries isn't as reliable as he could be, and Agholar isn't a home-run hitter.
Are we really talking talent here, Gil? Well, Callaway is like another OBJ physically, and for that matter Higgins looks a little like Agholar!
Agree to disagree call it a wash.
So far I guess the Eagles look more talented (if you ignore depth) because Ertz is proven and I stipulated the Offensive Line.
DT: Cox, Fletcher, and Jernigan vs...oh I see the problem here: Gil needs to hit his Funk and Wagnall and look up "talent", because he's dissing Ogunjobi, and sticking with familiar names. In reality, I'll generously call DT a wash.
DE: HAAAAHAHAHAA NEXT!
LB: Da Brownss. If Gil gives the Eagles the nod here, it's because he likes Fletcher Cox or something, but the Browns still have Schobert, Avery, and loaded up on two more in the draft.
Safety: Brownss...I think. Well for SURE if depth matters at all but also because Randall is better than Jenkins.
CB: HAAAAHAHAHA NEXT!
I guess we're down to Special Teams now. Maybe the Eagles have better legs but they won't have better anything else because Dorsey loaded up on ST studs this offseason.
So where is Gil Brandt coming from?
Experience isn't talent.
Oh I'm just a homer right?
I'll step up to Gil's plate: Let's count Pro Bowl players:
The Browns have 2 on Offense and FIVE on Defense...so far. That's 7, Gil.
Gil: Ya think Ogunjobi, Bitonio, Greedy Williams, Randall, Ogunjobi, Chubb, Tretter, or Mayfield got a shot in 2019?
Gil also says the Patriots are more talented than the Browns. That's how I know he's not really talking about talent. He's looking at performance and statistics.
The 2019 Browns are a lot more talented than the Patriots. That's not even debatable zzinngg!
I won't bother comparing them you can do that yourself. It's obvious, and even Tight End is debatable now (nah it's not: Njoku is better than Watson in 2019).
Gil: "Talent" means ABILITY. Also, you should have considered depth.
In reality, I'm with almost every OTHER real expert who knows the definition of talent, and agree with them that the 2019 Browns are a top 5 talented team (at least).
In a fun article, an apparently overfull Mike Lucas wants Browns Bandwagoners to check their enthusiasm.
I find most of these articles insulting, but Mike sounds like a fellow jaded geezer, and makes it clear he's not talking to me.
My readers know that as much as I rant and rave about the talent on this team, how smart Freddie Kitchens really is, etc., I also respect the other teams in the Division.
Intra-Division games are always closer and less predictable than they "should" be. The Browns have the most talent, but the Steelers just added TWO linebackers, and the Antonio Brown stuff isn't nearly as bad as it's being made out to be.
The Steelers will be all up in the Browns' grill in 2019.
The Bengals are taking a step back in transition, but...ok I'm sorry I expect the Browns to sweep them.
The damn Ratbirds are...well they just lost 3 linebackers but of course they'll just shrug that off (chuh!) and they went from Flacco to Jackson...
But they upgraded their WR's and RB massively. They will be dangerous...well until Jackson gets hurt, anyway...
But I digress: Anyway a lot of you whippersnappers just hopped this train but are kinda clueless.
I mean, I can see the Browns going 10-6 and losing in the playoffs, and you people throwing up your hands in despair at this massive disappointment...
Why can't you talk to me, by the way? Why don't you know who Terrence Mitchell is? Why do you think Christian Kirksey is a stud?
But I digress:
Odell Beckham Jr thinks he can do more here than he did with Eli Manning and the Giants. Everybody is taking this as "Eli-bashing", but tough titties:
I have a better bead on OBJ now, and he's just being honest. And you people should think about this:
Beckham says he'll have to adjust to Mayfield's arm and he's bashing Eli's!?! He says he thinks he can do better here and he's bashing Eli and the Giants Coaches?
Is OBJ allowed to say ANYTHING AT ALL?
I like OBJ MORE now than I did before, because he seems to be HONEST. That's GOOD.
Political Correctness is dishonest and misleading. It turns speech into meaningless vanilla paste. Honesty works. Honesty is good.
I'm pretty sure Eli Manning himself is not offended or hurt. He knows his limitations, like Peyton did.
Nah OBJ might be wierd and flaky, but he's honest and "unfiltered", and I like him so far.
...and he is CORRECT: He WILL do more with the Browns than he did with the Giants.
He won't catch as many passes, but his depth-of-target will be much deeper, and Mayfield will look for him on the outer fringes of the red zone (and beyond).
1200 yards is still realistic, but it might be on only 67 receptions. 18+ TDs is also realistic.
My regulars get this: Mayfield was deadly in the red zone as a rookie, and he spread that all over the place. Aside from Njoku and Higgins, he didn't have any big targets.
He threw some "dime" bucket-passes, but more often threaded needles to short guys.
...Mayfield didn't have anybody like OBJ...except for Callaway...but of course, Callaway isn't OBJ YET, right, Gil?
Anyway, Baker Mayfield can hit tighter windows than, and is generally more accurate than Eli Manning...or Peyton Manning, for that matter.
OBJ is famous for his one-handed catch, right?
Well, he wouldn't have had to do that if that pass had been more accurate, and perhaps arrived sooner.
Oops shame on me now I'M a Manning-basher!
Seriously, you people need to understand that the truth is rarely painless, but it's universally healthy to acknowlege (unless you're a pedophile or something), and the world would be a better place sans BULLSHIT...
(Note: I'm only talking OBJ here. Baker Mayfield's comments about Duke Johnson were despicable and uncalled for...and stupid.)
OBJ? Not even close! Not to Mayfield or Antonio Brown or Joe Biden! In fact, I'm really starting to LIKE OBJ! He's just HONEST...
I give up okbye
