I'm scared of the Saints. There are a bunch of valid reasons that the Cleveland Browns have a legitimate chance to beat this offensive juggernaut at home in the dome, but I'm still scared, and can't predict a win.
I'm not as scared of Micheal Thomas as everybody else is, because Denzel Ward should be on him most of the time, Randall is the "angel", and Brees shouldn't have much time to throw. Thomas will do serious damage despite this, as both Brown and Smith-Schuster did last week, but not 160 yards worth; this is a better defense than the Saints played last week.
I am terrified by Alvin Kamara. That guy is just exceptional, and through 2017, the Browns' defense had big problems with quick, pass-catching running backs, and Kamara was an instastud as a rookie--he'll be even better now.
Kryptonite. Not good.
Everybody expects the Browns offense to "roll" this Saints defense like Fitz and the Bucs did last week.
This is kneejerk analysis, especially after the first game of a season:
The Saints defense is actually pretty talented, and these players were brought in with a fast-track/dome bias in mind (since they'll play around ten regular season games on astroturf).
The Browns are built to play on grass. The offense will not only need to go on a "silent" snap-count, but the only way for Tyrod to change plays pre-snap will be with hand-signals.
It's tougher than it sounds, and takes more time. Miscommunication happens a lot. Blown routes. False starts. Delay of game penalties or forced time outs. Bad timing for a new offense. Ick.
However: Gregg Williams/Todd Haley/John Dorsey just so happen to have a bunch of "turf"-freindly players themselves.
These include Harrison, Garrett, Avery, Gordon, Landry, Tretter, Njoku/DeValve, Collins, Ward, Duke Johnson, Tyrod, Callaway, Peppers, Fells (as a blocker), and several others.
Josh Gordon and Duke Johnson might "go off" here. Avery and Garrett too...and of course Tyrod will run when he can't pass (his one edge over Brees here, not to mention Fitzpatrick.)
Kneejerk analysis aside, the Browns offense should do better vs this defense than they did vs the Steelers' defense...err wait...
They scored 21 points on a better defense than the Saints have. Gordon and Taylor will have better chemistry. Duke can thrive on turf. Taylor (as a runner) too. They can realistically be expected to rack up at least 30 points on this Saints defense, despite the offense's "newness", and the noise. (*I'm assuming that the Saints D will be a little better than it was in game one...duh).
Kneejerk analyisis assumes that the Saints will score 40-plus points, but that's just dumb:
The hell with Ebineezer Bell: Conner racked up 192 yards, so last week the Browns literally held one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL to 21 points; this defense is for real.
As scary as Alvin Kamara is, I can't accept that he'll do better than Conner did.
I repeat: This defense is for real, and is better than Tampa Bay's defense. I can't believe that even the Saints can hang more than 34 points on it.
So we got us a real fight here!
Other pundits keep bringing up the Browns' history vs the Saints. That's utterly meaningless in 2018. If you bet on football and lean on that stuff, keep your bets small.
BOLD PREDICTIONS:
1: Harrison will not give up more than 1 sack or 6 pressures.
2: Hubbard will not give up more than 2 sacks or 10 pressures. I hope.
3: Tyrod Taylor will run for over 60 yards and one touchdown.
4: Tyrod will complete over 57% of his passes, and average over 9 yards per-attempt.
5: Tyrod will not be sacked more than four times.
6: Josh Gordon will go over 100 yards and score at least one TD.
7: Landry--ditto.
8: Duke Johnson will generate over 120 all-purpose yards and at least one TD.
9: Njoku will score.
10: Garrett will get at least one sack (and lots of pressures, and at least one tackle-for-loss.)
11: Avery will get at least two tackles-for-loss, six pressures, and 6 tackles.
12: Collins will make over 7 tackles, and break up at least two passes.
13: (combo here): Micheal Thomas won't go over 120 yards, and Kamara won't go over 150.
14: The Browns will get at least one interception (*probably off a deflection)
15: Duke Johnson will end up with more snaps than Carlos Hyde, and out-produce him.
16: Win or lose, the Browns will cover that point-spread, and it looks like this game will go over the total points too. Figure 31-34 (one way or the other).
I feel better now. I have convinced myself that the Browns have a better than 33% chance of upsetting the Saints in New Orleans.
It will probably come down to the zebras, and well...there you go.
Browns 31, Saints/zebras 34.
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