Saturday, September 15, 2018

Genard Avery, Strategery, Gregg Williams, Todd Haley, and the Saints

Great, no Josh Gordon.  Well that's okay-let's see what Callaway can do.  Thanks to John Dorsey, the Browns have depth at "deep threat".

DeValve's absence won't hurt a lot, unless Njoku gets dinged.

Kirksey?  Well, I really like the guy, and he's emerged as a leader, but...Avery is better anyway.

If you read this Blog, you know that Avery is destined to replace Kirksey.  

For now, Gregg Williams has been using Avery in a James Harrison role (like I predicted less than 48 hours after they drafted him -blush-blush-).

But (again like Harrison), Avery is actually a real linebacker who can mirror and cover.  Kirksey's time off will just make Gregg's job easier.

Burgess is also a good (ascending) player who can do what Kirksey does.

Genard Avery is massively underrated.  How he lasted to the fourth round...well he's just 6' tall (like Harrison)...

Anyway he played every linebacker position in college.  Some scouts called him a middle or inside linebacker.  Others called him an outside edge-rushing linebacker.

He was good at everything.  He is the new James Harrison (except faster). Why does nobody else see that?

Harrison himself went undrafted and got cut a whole bunch of times before he finally got his real opportunity.

Avery was more fortunate, as his combine tests were impressive, and he showed a lot in college, but he, like Harrison, is underrated.

James Harrison (who mellowed out later and stopped trying to knock out or paralyze his opponents--passing the dirtiest player in the NFL to Vontez Burfict) was known for his passrushing (and psychotic viciousness), but:

He also got interceptions and broke up passes in coverage (by blasting the receiver in zone, but hey it worked, right?)  In other words, he was a REAL linebacker.

That's Avery.  In Kirksey's absence, Avery should simply be on the field for every snap, in one role or another.

Kirksey was the WIL, and that's not Avery's best position, so I'm not sure how Gregg will handle this.  

Avery has been the edge-rushing yang to Garrett's ying, and Gregg will probably want to keep bringing him from the strong side, especially with Ogbah also dinged.

Vs Drew Brees's Saints, he's got to blitze.

It's confusing, because Jamie Collins is the official SAM, but he's in coverage a lot...

You can't predict a Gregg Williams defense, really.  That's why you need to read this Blog.

Kirksey and Ogbah are out, so Gregg will make the most of who he has vs this specific offense.  Avery is one of his best players, so he'll be there.  Garrett, Ogunjobi, Schobert...

I'm guessing a (nominal) 3-man front with Smith at left DE, and Odenigbo rotating in to relieve both DE's (with some Chad Thomas mixed in), and Devaroe joining Coley as nose tackle relief for Ogunjobi.

Devaroe is a real big monster space eating nose tackle, should Williams deem one neccessary in a given situation, but everybody else are penetrators.

This puts the defensive ends between the offensive guards and tackles (yes, including Garrett).  But here we see why Gregg was so obsessed with defensive ends who could "move inside".

You need Field Marshall Schobert.  You need swiss army knife Collins.  And you need James Harrison Genard Avery on the field.

As you know if you read this Blog, the real NFL "base" defense these days is a nickel, and in Gregg Williamsville, Jabrill Peppers or Cousins are "kinda" linebackers.

Obviously, I just described a 3-3 set.  But you should see Peppers at WIL.

This makes too much sense vs the 2018 Saints.  It (ideally) deprives Drew Brees of a pocket, and makes him scramble.  Like all right-handed quarterbacks, he wants to scramble to is right, so he can throw comfortably.  But Avery is humiliating his right tackle and blowing that up.

It makes a handoff to Kamara inside problematic, too.  Kamara isn't a big or powerful guy (and knows it). It's hard to run-block vs quick-twitch athletes who are trying to get into your backfield.

It makes a dumpoff to Kamara, or a sweep mighty tempting, but Gregg the Little Dutch Boy only has so many fingers, and can pick his poison.

Certainly, the Saints can screw him (sometimes) no matter what he does, but that's why he gets his best players on the field as often as possible, however he has to do it:

Peppers can run Kamara down.  Avery can deck him on his way to Brees.  Brees can't outrun Garrett or Avery.  Nobody can outrun Ward.  

Randall will play more "angel" here, because this is Drew Brees (and Kamara and Thomas).  He's coming foreward to keep the little gains from turning into big gains, and maybe knock the ball loose.

Williams wants to force Brees to throw before he wants to throw, eliminate inside runs as an option, and (via pressure) take Thomas off the table as a deep threat.  He'll count on Randall (and his upgraded team-speed) to prevent Kamara from inflicting fatal damage.

Todd Haley will try to run the Saints defense over.  After what Fitzpatrick did to them last sunday, they're expecting Haley to copy him.

But the Browns should be able to run the ball on anybody.  Haley will probably open up with 3-wides to guarantee a nickel and a shallow box--then run it over.

Well that's just scene one, but now he's in charge, see?  They bring the free safety up and shift to zone and NOW he passes--it's a chess game, see?

Hue Fisher will act like he's in charge, and hopefully not mess things up.

I'm sticking with my prediction: Browns 31, Saints/Regerees 34.

THIS JUST IN:  Gordon is a GMF!  I have no idea of what went on behind the scenes, so my ropes, torches, and pitchforks are still in the garage.

I can't kneejerk this, because jeez another hamstring issue?  I want to call Dorsey an idiot due to all this Dez Bryant idiocy of his, but I just don't have enough info.

Well, it is what it is.  The trade offers are coming.

Dammit.

...ok but if Dorsey signs Dez Bryant now he IS (at best) demented.

Mary Kay Cabbott sheds more light on this.   She'd make a great intelligence analyist, as she pretty much reports the facts without bias.

She mentions the Bryant option, but also the fact that he would be extremely cheap.

If you think she's advocating, you are a mow-ron.  She is delivering the facts, and speaks english.  Deal with it.

But Dorsey should't sign Bryant at ANY price! (THAT is what we call an opinion).

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