Sunday, July 22, 2018

Tyrod Taylor is Underrated. So is Simeon Thomas. Browns Bashery continued

It's still a slow news week, but Andrew Gribble's mailbag is always good for material.  I'll use his article to check out some under-the-radar guys again.

Andrew actually watched the public practices, and hangs around the facility to eavesdrop (shhh) and stuff...and is smart enough to "process" it...long story short yeah, he is kind of a Browns "press agent", but is a great source for certain types of intelligence (for a guy like me).

Left tackle candidate Greg Robinson is Andy's first under-the-radar guy.  We can't put lipstick on this pig: Robinson was drafted to be a starting left tackle, and has been a huge bust to date, with two different teams.

This guy came dirt-cheap; John Dorsey laid two bucks on an 8-1 longshot.  You never know.  Maybe he sheds 15 lbs, or just finally gets desperate/determined, or Joe Thomas fixes him.  Cross your fingers (but don't count on it).

Regardless, he could make the roster as a versatile "go-to" depth player.  Robinson is not a starting left tackle or bust guy at his age and salary.  He guarantees better offensive line depth.

Andrew says wide receiver CJ Board has been impressive, and a Baker Mayfield favorite target.  Board was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Ravens last season, and was subsequently released.

He is still listed at 174 lbs., but that's probably bullcrap because Hans and Franz have had him for two offseasons now.  He remains 6'2" tall.

I won't dig deeper into CJ, because the wide receivers in front of him on this roster make it nearly impossible for him to get more than a practice squad slot.

Well let me check that again: 1 Gordon 2 Landry 3/4 Coleman/Callaway 5 (imo) Ratley...

Ok he has a shot if they keep six.  But with Duke Johnson here, keeping six would be overkill.

Speaking of Damion Ratley, he was Andrew's next under the radar guy.  Ratley has also impressed in practice.  He's a little taller than Board, and not as skinny (although he definitely needs to pump up).

Ratley is a BIG-play guy with a very high cieling.

Louis and Higgins are listed ahead of Board and Ratley on the current depth-chart, but they predated Hue Jackson, let alone Dorsey and Haley.  And they're not scary enough.

The guy I am most excited about is DB Simeon Thomas, who is SIX FOOT THREE, and was a press/man corner in college.

Here is another Hans/Franz project (only weighs 190 lbs so far).

The 2018 Browns are loaded at cornerback and strong safety, but it's not uncommon for teams to carry 8-10 "defensive backs" on their active rosters...

*Ok this is partly because they're used a lot on special teams---moreso with the latest rule changes*

The standard secondary fields four players.  The nickel defense is the real "base" defense in today's NFL, and some sort of dime is used over 25% of the time.

Long story short: Simeon Thomas has a great shot at the final 53 in 2018, because he's a matchup guy in a vertically-challenged secondary.

Thomas can contribute situationally immediately.  Andrew zeroed in on his press/man skills, but he plays off-man well too.  

That means he can take on your Julio Joneses and your Njokus who would overmatch him in press/man right now...long deep story but trust me: Thomas has a great chance not to just make the roster, but to play on defense in 2018.

Justin Currie and Denzel Rice are two more guys Gribble lists.  

Let's see Randall Peppers Kindred Ward Gaines Carrie makes six.  Currie is getting his props so far and looks good for the final roster.  I just dissertationalized on Simeon Thomas which would be eight DBs.  Boddy-Calhoun makes nine.

Rice?  I just don't know.  Micheal Jordon is actually pretty good, and Terrence Mitchell looks better.

Great article by Dan Justik on why Tyrod Taylor looks like the player with the most to prove.

I admit that I haven't read this article yet my own self, but I know Dan is smart, and that I have no doubt said what he said several weeks or months ago.

After telling you how Tyrod has a strong arm and comparing schemes and talents and predicting a best-ever year for Tyrod under Haley, I told you how smart Dorsey was to trade for him, despite/because he was in the last year of his contract.

Tyrod Taylor is generally considered "above average" by the analytics sites; ranked around 13...annually.

Ross Tucker et al don't think that trading the first pick in the third round for Taylor was wise, given that he would be a one-year "rental".

Actually, it was brilliant.  Dorsey was/is out to turn things around RIGHT NOW, and the one position he needed to fix to get there was quarterback.

A reliable, proven, experienced veteran, because -snap-snap- you know what, Sherlock?  The 2017 Browns would have won several games if it had been Taylor instead of Kizer.

...and probably not one more game had it been Keenum or Cousins.

Now, the best quarterback in this draft class (by a wide margin) gets to wear a baseball cap and take his time while watching a real veteran with a roughly similar skill-set (and I suspect that Dorsey wanted Mayfield all along).

Tyrod's current 16 mil contract is suddenly very cheap, with Cousins making around 12 more million.  

Ross and company talk about the player the Browns could have drafted with that top third round pick instead, but he's wrong.

The Browns' core roster was a lot better than Ross thought it was, and Dorsey found himself with too many draft picks!

As it is, they'll have to waive a bunch of good players.  There are too many linebackers, wide receivers, cornerbacks, running backs and offensive linemen.

Who would Ross have drafted instead of trading for Tyrod Taylor?  Ross was a Business major.  Somewhere in there is something called "the law of diminishing returns". Perhaps he needs a refresher course.

Without a veteran quarterback, the Browns were once again going to have to start their rookie in 2018.  Of all the veterans available, Tyrod was the only one that fit.  

Dorsey did NOT want a long-term overpriced starter, because he had the first overall pick in the bag.

Sure, some people said they should just sign Cousins and forget about drafting a quarterback first or fourth.  That's a valid strategy.  I respect it.

But when you look hard at Cousins (especially through a PFF lens), you see that he's really good...but not worth what he was ultimately paid.
 John Dorsey found himself with a load of talent, money, and draft picks when he came to this team.

He had probably already decided on Baker Mayfield (before he was even hired).  Some smart people disagree with him.  We'll just have to see who wins that debate down the road.

In Baker Mayfield, those who agree with Dorsey and me see a Rodgers, Brees, or Warner.  Locked up cheap for five years.

If you have the first overall pick, and you think that a quarterback is worth that pick, you have to pick him, period. And like I said, John Dorsey might well have had his mind made up before Haslam hired him.

Still with me here -snap-snap-?  Ok well you don't draft the next Rodgers/Brees/Warner and overpay a Cousins to keep your draft pick on the bench (demanding a trade) for five years DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

At the same time, you want to protect your first overall quarterback as much as you can.

A few notes on this:  the rookie Carson Wentz started out great, but once defenses had film on him, they stifled him.

This is despite the fact that Wentz was a four year starter in a Pro style offense in college.

Mayfield has as much experience as Wentz, but his was all "air-raid", so he has a steeper learning-curve.

He's a LOT more advanced than poor DeShone Kizer (who got screwed by Hue Palmer), but he still needs time to adapt to the pro game.

This is where Tyrod Taylor comes in.

Dorsey gives Mayfield his "red shirt" year.

As I've mentioned, Tyrod Taylor has been above average for his whole career, and last season took a mediocre team to the playoffs.

His floor is above average, and he gets to explore his cieling with the most talented team he's ever had in 2018.

John Dorsey wants to build a dynasty of course, but saw the opportunity to make a move right now. (If you don't believe me, ask Landry, Kendricks, Randall, Gaines, Mitchell, Carrie, Hubbard, Fells, HALEY,  etc.)

Tyrod Taylor is the sharp end of this spear.  All these "experts" predicting 4 or 5 wins for the 2018 Browns are obviously not on the same page as John Dorsey.

Tyrod Taylor is here to audition for his next and last contract.  He knows it will be for somebody other than the Cleveland Browns.

He is happy with this deal, because he believes in himself, and (much like Dorsey) finds himself eyeball-deep in talent.  

Tyrod doesn't even see Baker Mayfield as a rival, and is actively mentoring him.

Most pundits don't grok this, but I can translate:

Tyrod is certain that he is better than Baker, period.  That's even before the experience part enters the scene.

He feels like Baker's big brother.

Dorsey probably didn't plan on this, but he'll take it!

I need to hammer this some more, since none of you seem to get it:

Tyrod Taylor thinks he's an excellent quarterback, and that he can get into the Hall of Fame with a little help and more hard work.

He doesn't feel threatened by Baker Mayfield, so he's not out to "get" him, and doesn't even hate him.

Agents, lawyers, gossip columnists and Soap writers will mangle this horribly, but here's reality:

This garbage has no place in professional sports.  Survival of the fittest is all there is.

All these guys are all-in on this from gradeschool on up.  The best man wins...there's no bullshit.  

These guys don't hate eachother, and when one proves himself better than the other, they accept it (temporarily).

You people generally don't understand competition anymore...God Bless the Department of Indoctrination.

But I digress anyway Tyrod Taylor is the perfect 2018 Browns quarterback.  He just might rank in the top five (or seven, anyway).

He'll sail off into the sunset earning 27-plus mil/year, and Baker Mayfield will take over ( and be ready).

For right now, OBVIOUSLY, Tyrod Taylor gives the 2018 Browns a shot at the playoffs DUH so yes:

Tyrod Taylor has the most to prove in 2018.  He is the quarterback, and his team was winless last season.

The more I think about this, the more optimistic I get.  Tyrod Taylor is underrated.  The quarterback position is overrated.  Team talent is underrated.  So are "assistant" coaches...

Nevermind okbye




















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