Sunday, October 9, 2016

Got My Brady Voodoo Doll Ready

I was stunned by this article by Micheal McD, who covers the Patriots.  In it, he outlines what he expects the Patriots to do to the Browns.

It was educational.  I didn't know that Patricia and the Sith Lord used a three-safety base defense.

Mike, like myself, thinks they'll put their second cornerback on Pryor, but give him safety help over the top.  He feels they should try to deal with Crowell without replacing a safety with a linebacker.

He didnt't explain why, but it probably has something to do with Gary Barnidge and Duke Johnson.  The three safeties are more effective against tight ends and running backs who can line up outside at any time.

The defensive tackles are big, but the defensive ends are Sheard and Long, which is a nasty combination.  They should try to funnel the running back inside to Brown and Branch, the tackles.

As Chris admits, it's a tall order.  Unlike the arrogant prick in Baltimore, Chris did some homework, and knows how close the Browns came to winning their last three games.

The schematic matchups do not favor the Patriots here.  The delayed draws I described in my last post, which they used on the Redskins, put those two elite defensive ends in a bad spot.  If they go outside the tackle, they concede the edge.  If they cross the tackle's face or otherwise go inside, they open up the flats...

Ok see this is like a stationary read-option.  If the end crashes inside, Crow or Johnson can go behind them.  Sheard or Long have to dive at full speed, and can't check their momentum quickly enough to do more than claw at them as they go by in the opposite lane.

I'm in the weeds here: Last week, Buffalo screwed this defense up with quick slants and crosses.  Those who criticized Patricia and Darth Insideous about this are mystical worshippers who can't figure out why they didn't use the force to stop it.

Of course, the adjustment is short zone coverage, and I don't need a replay to know the Patriots went to it right away.  This forces wide receivers to STOP "Sit down" to catch passes.  It gives them space to catch it, but deprives them of momentum, and makes it easier for defenders to take them down right there.  The defenders are positioned to keep the receiver short underneath.

If a receiver catches a ball in stride against zone coverage, he is going to get knocked out.

Well, it simply didn't work, because the players failed to get the receivers on the ground right away, and they made serious YAC yards.

Zone is the likliest way the Pats will try to contain Pryor.  No doubt, they'll show zone and play soft man, or vice versa to screw up the baby quarterback and raw receiver, but playing him tight is futile until he's gone horizontal...except he can FORCE man, and clear the zone behind him.

Pryor isn't a typical receiver.  He can gobble up his pad faster than a cornerback can backpedal, and force him to turn around lest he get his doors blown off.  And he can't release him to a safety man-on-man.

When he has a McCourty or somebody deeper, he times his turn to match speeds as Pryor goes by him...

But he can't run with Pryor.  He will lose ground on him stride by stride, and he will be open for an accurate high pass from the get-go.

But the safety is there -whew-... except Pryor is 6'5".  The safety retains an inside bias to deprive Pryor of 2/3rds of the field, and can't get "on" him, because he can't match his speed either.

He has to stay behind and away from him in as the deep part of a bracket, and like I said biased inside.

A smart safety will have studied films, so he can anticipate a timing pass, and know where it's going in advance.  If this is Travis Benjamin, he can jump the route for a breakup or pick, or at least time his hit to blast him.

But this guy is 6'5", 230 lbs.  If the pass is accurate, the safety has zero chance of a breakup or pick.  He can time his hit, but if he hangs back to accomplish this, he concedes the reception, even if the throw is a little off.

Meanwhile, Pryor can also STOP as the cornerback turns with him, to catch the pass already on it's way (comeback).

These Browns can do this to these Patriots.  Terry Pluto doesn't think Kessler had the arm to go deep.  See "Brian Sipe/ Rucker/Logan."

The Dark Lord and Patricia are geniusess, and these players are smart and talented, but this is physics.  They can't just allow Crow and Duke to run all over them all day, and Pryor is the new Megatron.  They can't just ignore Barnidge, either.

While you've been dozing, the '16 Browns grew a diverse offense.  I want to see the big rookie wide receivers vs single coverage, and await Barnidge coming out of mothballs too.

Bill might be able to slow down the run, or Pryor.  He can't do both.

That's why I respectfully disagree with Mike.  Bill and Matt might well try random inside blitzes (5 man pressures) to disrupt Kessler and the run at the same time.  This puts it on Kessler to identify and burn the blitze in a hurry, and might force the inexperienced kid to screw up.

Matt expects a high-scoring, close Patriots win.  No, really, check for yourself!  No not a blowout honest!  He's what you call "objective" (how refreshing!).

I agree.  The Pats offense will score gobs of points, but the Browns offense can keep the team in the race.


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