Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Cleveland Browns: Dead Team Walking

Roger Goodell did a great job here.  Tom Brady is going to wreak his revenge on the football field.  Yeah, call him a cheater!  Great!  

Robert Kraft is angry.  Bill Belichick is getting called a cheater too.  You think they'll quit going for blood vs the Browns before the final whistle?  In your dreams!  

"Look at THIS, you green eyed monters!  We don't NEED to cheat!"

That wasn't quite perfect, though.  They had to lose to Buffalo last week.  Yep!  

Brady saw Ryan throw for 500 yards last week.  That will be a good starting point for him!  Yep!

The referees won't be helpful.  They'll arrange their weekly ten point swing in favor of the Pats.  Bill and Tom will just get angrier, because that will contaminate what needs to be a clean, pure, massacre.  They'll have to score ten more points just to show they would have anyway.

Oh and Gronk should be ready to rock again.

Gloomy, huh?  

Well Tom has been out of football for a long time, so he might pull a muscle or something.  So we got that goin for us...  

And that's the offense.  The Browns O can't keep up, but might not get shut out.  

As we have all heard several thousand times, Bill Belichick takes away the opposing offense's best weapon/tactic, and forces them to do something else with somebody else.


I'm not sure what he'll make of these Browns.  

Well, Cody Kessler has been efficient, but averages a little over 5 yards per completed pass so far.  Any merely mortal defensive genius would be strongly tempted to squeeze the field verticly to mess up the shorter routes and the run at the same time.  Until Kessler throws some bombs, he's a dink passer, so you try to jump some routes and blow up some receivers.

Crowding Terrelle Pryor is dangerous, and you don't do that if McCown or Griffin is the quarterback, but your odds are better with Kessler.

But Bill doesn't underestimate people.  And I mean Hue Jackson---not Kessler.  Naturally, Hue has had training wheels on the kid in his first two starts, and Josh Norman was on Pryor in the last game.

If I saw Kessler completing deep passes (notably the season before last in a different offensive system), so has Bill.  And this would be a great time for a desperate Jackson to have have his kid and Pryor go for the throat, if he puts a guy close in on Pryor.

Most coaches with this kind of offensive firepower wouldn't worry about one suprise touchdown, but Belichick can't stand leaving anything to chance.

His insurance would be a single high safety; a center fielder.  This leaves ten other guys to squeeze Kessler's preferred routes, and to get in Cowell's way.

A note here: Those runs by Crowell were not conventional.  They were like a combination of a delayed draw and a read option.  Look at the tapes:

Kessler and Crowell just sort of stood there, side by side, looking downfield, before Kessler finally handed off.

Here is what I think Doctor Jacksonstein thought up:

One back, no more than one in-line tight end (spread).

These were G-power runs behind pulling guards, although the tackles drove the ends outside.  The delay gave the guards (mainly Bitonio) time to get upfield, while also pulling the corners downfield along with the receivers.

Because what did they see?  They saw the quarterback holding the ball, and his running back standing there in a max protect look.  They had to stay on the receivers.  The deep safety had to hang back.

In a normal run, most edge-rushers are expected to crash down on inside runs, and usually have the speed and quickness to do it.  A normal run, however, is immediate.  In the absence of that handoff and motion, the edge rushers will commit behind the tackles to close on the pocket, because it looks like a pass, sorta, and if they come free, the running back has to block them, and can't be an outlet receiver.

I'm convinced that had a receiver come open (I haven't checked, but bet at least one of them was going postal), Kessler would have thrown the ball, rather tham hand it off.

Meanwhile, Crowell is watching things set up in front of him, mentally plotting his course...with big eyes.  The big lumbering linemen were all set up by the time he got the ball.  He didn't have to hesitate.  The edge guys were lost in the dust behind him, his blockers were mauling the aggressive interior linemen and uncertain linebacker(s), and he had HUGE holes to sprint through at full speed.

Crowell is doing great with yards after contact, but that first contact is often two or more yards up the field, and he's not cutting; he's all-up sprinting straight ahead.  His MOMENTUM breaks tackles.

The Sith Lord will of course have seen this, and sense the force strong in this young Head Coach.  But doing something to neutralize it is no simple matter.

He can time up a delayed blitze over the hole the pulling guard exposes, but this is one of the things Kessler and Hawkins or Barnidge are looking for, and Crow is there to pick it up.

Part of the solution is inside pressure.  The Redskins didn't have the inside down linemen to produce it.  Bill does, and the Browns just lost yet ANOTHER center!  But there must be actual penetration.  Driving the center back won't work here.

It's possible that, after several hours of contemplation, Bill will decide to just go with five man pressures (inside) all day.  This takes a defender out of coverage, and also out of position for the run if he's rerouted or late, but plugs one of the holes, and by forcing Crowell to protect, puts it all on the rookie quarterback.

That's probably what he'll do.  The rest of the defense will know where the weak spot is; where Crowell is likely to go, and the coverage guys can bait traps and anticipate hot reads.

The fun part of football is that nothing is a sure thing.  Bill for sure wants to put everything on Cody Kessler.  He won't be able to shut the run down entirely, but he can eliminate it as an option half the time when Hue uses this particular strategy, and force the kid to think fast.

But then, Hue Jackson won't attack New England exactly the same way.  For all I know, he'll load up with goons and try to steamroll them.  He might use Pryor at quarterback more (one tackle for loss doesn't scrap that).  He will certainly not stick to any tendancies he knows the Sith Lord has on tape.

I know the Browns will lose.  I just think they can make it fun for a little while.

One Fantasy "expert" recommends the Patriot defense vs the Browns offense.  How ignorant.  Go Brady Edelman Gronk etc I get it; the Browns defense has sucked.

But now you have to toss the offense into the same dumpster?  Why?  Because of the two late turnovers and referee gift late in the most recent game?  All of a sudden they can't run or pass or score touchdowns any more?

Don't get all fuzzy!  The defense sucks, but the offense doesn't, and by the way this is 2016.

Anyway, as they await Tom Brady with his axe and hood, the Browns can resolve to meet their fate like men.

Anything I can do?  Need a Bible?  Any messages for family members?  Got your wills up to date?  I'd say good luck, but...

Late add: a shocking number of Ohioans think that Ohio State would beat an NFL team which needed to get screwed by referees to lose to the Ravens, Dolphins, and Redskins.

Sadly, they are allowed to vote in real elections, too.  God help us.




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