Friday, October 28, 2016

Joe Thomas, Gary Barnidge, and Money-Grubbing Mercs

1: The Browns never attempted to trade Joe Thomas.  Other teams attempted to trade for Joe Thomas.

2: There is no way the "asking price" for Joe Thomas is a very low second round draft pick.
2a: Sashi Brown is not insane, or stupid.

3: Hue Jackson was sincere.  He wants to keep Cody Kessler in one piece.  The front office is not trying to trade Joe Thomas...but they are answering the phone.

The Browns are not going to trade Joe Thomas...cheap.

Joe is a very rare person.  He wants to stay with the Browns, simply because he likes it here.  Gary Barnidge is like that, too.  Terrelle Pryor at least sounds like he feels the same.

Aren't you sick of mercenaries like Jordon Cameron and Alex Mack?  Give me the Barnidges and Thomases.  They have actual hearts and souls.  As such, they are born leaders.  They want to win as much as anybody else, but they're willing to fight for it.  They don't always seek the path of least resistance, and can't be bought for an extra twenty cents.

While these things aren't "analytical", Sashi Brown seems to understand their value as well as Hue Jackson does.

Remember, Mitchell Schwartze had an offer on the table.  He insisted on visiting other teams, leaving that offer on the table.  When he came back, the table had been cleared.  I think I was right about why.

4: I can't comment on the run defense...if you can call it that...against the Bengals, but I saw a pass rush last week, and the week before.

The universe predicts a close game with the Jets winning.  

I think the Browns will win.

Updated w/l predictfion: 9-7.

Late add: The Steelers, who James Harrison plays for, are upset that Suh kicked Big Ben.  That's just plain funny.

...oh God it never stops!  Jay Cutler for Haden AND a second-round pick!  These people aren't sterilized?  They let them vote?  Wow.

Sunday, October 23, 2016

Big Surprise. Bengals Beat Browns, Wow.

The Browns defense sucked, but the offense did not.  The makeshift offensive line, basicly Pryorless wide receivers, and Hogan couldn't keep up with the Bengals offense vs the Bengals defense, but it didn't suck.

I don't know what some fans seemed to expect.  Cam Erving might or might not be a bust, but how can we even know that when he's clearly got serious health issues?  How deep into the offensive line's depth chart are we going to have to get?  Pryor was little more than a decoy as he heals.  

Chris Hogan showed some promise, but he's not Kessler.  I mean it: What did you expect?

The Browns defense had it's Green kryptonite watching in street clothes.  Didn't you know Green would go crazy as soon as you heard that Haden wouldn't play?

Stop saying Dalton wasn't pressured.  He got rid of the ball too fast.  Stop ignoring the fact that the Browns defense is starting to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

No, that doesn't excuse the huge holes Hill and Bernard ran through, the broken tackles, the crappy coverage, etc, but don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.  

There were, in fact, bright spots.  One of which was the emergence of long overdue pressure on the opposing quarterback.  Another was a partial return of the running game.

Another was Hogan, and his surprising mobility.  Hogan can't throw on the move like Kessler; he needs his feet set like most other quarterbacks.  Nor can he match Kessler's accuracy.  But as you saw, he can play this game.  He belongs, and has a future in the NFL.  He may represent quality depth...or trade bait.

Interesting that Hue was using him in the Pryor role before Kessler was even injured.  Hue will never admit it, but I believe he was taking another rookie quarterback out for a test drive.  If it works out perfectly, Hogan could become the number two quarterback, and RG3 and McCown could be traded.

The Bengals have a losing record, but nobody with a brain thinks they're a bad team.  And get this: A bad team would not have defeated this junior varsity, beat up Browns team, even with it's mostly atrocious defense.

Seriously, don't you get that?` First and second year players, third string starters, the FIFTH quarterback this season (a fifth round rookie), Pryor a decoy, no Haden, IN Cincinnati I mean get a grip!  You too, Terry Pluto!

Lower the freaking bar!  This is an expansion team still in it's cradle!  It's crawling and stumbling.  Tape over the outlets, block off the stairwell, keep it away from sharp objects!

Seriously.  Look foreward to it's first steps.  Wait for it to say "mom-mee".  Don't shove a football in it's face and go out for a pass are you kidding me?  

Corey Coleman will be back soon, and Pryor will be back.  This team will win some games this season.  The offense not only doesn't suck, but once a little healthier will become pretty good pretty fast.

The defense isn't a TOTAL disaster when Joe Haden plays.  Well okay it still stinks, but more like bottom 25 than 32nd.

Don't tell Hue Jackson I said this, but this is really about 2017 and beyond.  Accept this.


Friday, October 21, 2016

Cleveland Browns: Crawl Before You Walk

Pat Kirwan, in the wake of his most recent interview of Hue Jackson on NFL Radio, is sounding less bored by and disdainful of the Cleveland Browns.

He came very close to admitting that Cody Kessler was not neccessarily doomed to fail, and he likes Crowell and Pryor.

Pat has an old school issue with analytics, referring often to "money ball" and implying that football is too complex for such deep analysis to be nearly as effective here.  He loves Hue Jackson, however, and is coming to realize that Hue is all aboard with Sashi and company.

Indeed, as Head Coach of the Raiders, he really had little help, and pretty much ran everything.  He coached just fine, and his draft was about average.  But several games into the season, when Campbell went down, he traded with the Bengals for Carson Palmer, paid him gobs of money, and hurried him onto the field.

Remember, Palmer was sitting out the season in a contract dispute.  He hadn't been in camp or practiced.  He was no doubt working out, but hadn't played any football for a long time.

It didn't work, and was probably the reason Hue was fired.

So Hue has had his taste of handling the personnel side of things, and in my opinion is probably glad to let somebody else do it.

Pat Kirwan said of this team: If you measure their progress by wins and losses, you miss the point.  They are looking for their dependable core players.  Pryor, Crowell, and possibly Kessler are some of these, and by the end of the season, there should be some more.

Pat then happily accepted a call from "Browns Freak", who calls the front office a bunch of idiots and called for a boycott to remove Jimmy Haslam three years after he bought the team.

As usual, the nimrod predicted 0-20, a Hue Jackson firing, death and destruction.  Pat said "I agree" three or four times.

When in a moment of clarity he called Colon Kaperdick a pud, Pat avoided it.  Oh well that's Pat.

Yesterday I read this by a guy I like even more than Pluto: Lesmerises. You've probably already read it, but just in case, click and make sure you did:

The silver lining in all the injuries is the experience the younger players are getting, and the extended looks the coaches are getting at them.

In the short term, it's a disaster, but in 2017 and beyond, it will pay dividends.  Some of these players will probably be gone by the end of next training camp.  Others will probably be starters.  The playing time they're getting now will not only make them "grow up" faster, but give the staff the information it needs to make better decisions.

I think the Browns have a shot vs the Bengals.  Losing Eifert hurt them, but they're still loaded with talent at every position. I believe the bigger loss Marvin Lewis suffered was...Hue Jackson.

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

More Kessler, Brady Quinn, Unthinking Analysis

1: Vontez Burfict has taken a firm grasp on the dirtiest player in the NFL title.  Congratlations, Vontez.  You gaping rectum.

2: Nice to see Julio Jones being "covered" like Terrelle Pryor!  It's shocking the referees didn't make the call, since Julio isn't a Cleveland Brown, however.  What were the lines on that game?

3: Big Ben now out 4-6 weeks!  If he's not there when the Steelers play the Browns, the homies got a shot.

Oh shut up.  Brady Quinn agrees.  While mentally beating up on his NFL Radio partner, Murray, like he does all day every day, he said "they're going to win some games.  Don't sleep on Kessler!"

Murray predictably spluttered and snorted derisively, and Quinn said "they might even win this one.  I'm thinking about picking them."

"I want to see if you have the guts to actually pick them.", Murray predictably retorts.

Well, picking the Browns over the Bengals is a tall order, and I'm not holding my breath on Brady's decision.  But the derisive smirks and snorts are really, really ignorant.  

They've been close to winning four of their six games.  And yes, they need to close better, but the referees irrefutably engineered three of those losses.  Yes they did.  Those games were stolen from them.  Yes they were.  It happened.  Yes it did.

Kessler has started three of those games.  Vs the Patriots, he had them in the game when he was injured.  I doubt that the Browns could have won, but he had nothing to do with the loss.

He has engineered second-half comebacks in two games, under real pressure.  The Browns came up short, just barely.

His overall rating is 93.8.  His FIRST start was 81.6, and he was over 126 vs the New England Patriots.  His yards per completion went from 5.6 to 7.8 to 8.2.  Can you find me another quarterback who gets sacked six times and manages to rate over 105?

Meanwhile, Carson Wentz has come back down to earth.  That's no knock on him, and it will probably happen to Kessler, too, as defenses get a bead on him and figure out how to cramp his unique style.  The point here is, these two quarterbacks belong in the same conversation, and if you're snickering and snorting about that, you're not thinking for yourself.

Yes, wins and losses are the critical stat.  But guys like Murray ignore everything else utterly.  Despite the musical offensive linemen and the running game entering the Bermuda triangle two weeks ago and the swiss cheese defense, this very young team is improving overall, each snd every week.

For the moment, it is Terrelle Pryor and Cody Kessler who are taking up ALL the slack.  But Barnidge can get back on track at any time, Ricardo Lewis has made strides...

They're that close, already, that one more play, by just one player, means a win.  The analytics guys will tell you that--this is the literal, measurable truth.  Why are you snickering and rolling your eyes?

Brady Quinn isn't the laid back pretty California dude a lot of us thought he was.  He's actually like a cross between Boomer Esiason and Phil Simms, and has joined MJD and Ross Tucker as one of my top sources, partly because when Murray says something dumb or ignorant, he says it's dumb or ignorant, and then tells him why.

He calls it like he sees it, and doesn't care when he's outnumbered.  Brett Favre said of Vontez Burfict "I just can't believe that in today's NFL, a player would actually try to deliberately injure another player."  I think Brett is preparing to run for office.  Brady Quinn said "That was obviously deliberate and he needs to be suspended for at least four games", and he got my vote.

Yeah, I can see how he got in a fistfight with motormouth defensive lineman Sean Smith in the locker room.  Bet he beat his ass, too.

But I digress: While everybody else is (yawn) admitting that Cody Kessler doesn't exactly suck, Quinn is telling us he is intelligent, accurate, nervy, and surprisingly good, and just might be the answer.

Like me, he points out: The Browns defense has played poorly, but the Browns offense has NOT.

Brady had to pick the Bengals, but said he might pick it the other way when they come to Cleveland.  Yeah, we're just in time for Tyler Eiffert to come back. That's almost as wonderful as welcoming Tom Brady back.

Joe Theisman said that when a quarterback doesn't have a strong receiving threat from a tight end, it makes things a lot harder.  The tight end threatens the middle of the field.  Absent that big, vertical guy inside, defenses can take away the wide receivers, or at least the deeper routes.

This is part of Aaron Rodgers' problem, and that goes for Dalton, as well.  

Conversely, I think Cody Kessler should start using Gary Barnidge more here, pretty soon.  That would open the rest of the offense up.

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Joe Thomas, Cody Kessler, and the Cleveland Browns

Rumors of a potential Joe Thomas trade to Denver, Detroit, or Carolina are probably based on nothing more than educated speculation by guys like me.

It doesn't mean it won't happen.  The "attempted" trade with Denver last year which the Browns "backed out of" is badly misreported.  Ray Farmer listened to offers.  None of the offers was high enough.  That's all.

If Joe continues to get days off from practice (common freaking sense duh), he could remain a top left tackle for 2-4 more seasons, and there is nobody in his zip code on this roster, so the Browns aren't in a frenzy to dump him, as will no doubt be suggested.

The asking price should START with a first round pick.  Speculation by fans of other teams calling in to NFL Radio are sad: They think the Browns would happily accept a low second round pick, and maybe a bag of Doritos.

Man, they also think the Browns would trade a first round pick for Gramps Romo!  

Only elite teams on the cusp of a Superbowl will have any interest.  The three teams mentioned could use him.  Especially Carolina, where Cam Newton is getting pounded to mush weekly.

That means any first round pick the Browns would get from them would be near the bottom.  Joe Thomas is worth a lot more than that.  No low first round pick could win a Superbowl this year, and maybe the year after, and the year after that.

Joe is also a bargain.  His obsolete salary is very low for what he offers.

As it stands, the Browns should have five draft picks in the top 75 next season.  As Pat Kirwan points out, this is a time bomb.  If they pick well, it means that many of those contracts will expire simultaneously, nuking the salary cap.  If these players are stars, they will probably lose some of them to free agency.

This is a factor in any potential Joe Thomas trade.  Sashi Brown could consider taking (higher/more) picks in 2018 and 2019 to close the deal.  An elite veteran team will find this attractive, as they could still have their current picks to hopefully prolong their "reign".

The first round starter pick in 2017 is probably not negotiable.

Sashi Brown, at least following Kirwan's logic, would be wise to trade some of his draft picks into the future, to even out those eventual cap crises and improve his chances of re-signing his star players in the future.

The "talent gap" mantra is crap.  The Cleveland Browns lack experience and healthy bodies, but not talent.  As it stands, Cam Erving looks like a miss (but that's not final).  We can wait to see how Coleman and Rango work out, but they might need a right tackle.  If they trade Joe, they will need a left tackle (drafted very high).

Barnidge is getting up there, DeValve is untested, but there is some promising talent at tight end.  This is unresolved.

Pryor should be re-signed asap.  Corey Coleman might be another Brown or Beckham.  Despite the last couple weeks, the running backs are studs.  

They need better cornerbacks.  Safety is in flux except for Campbell.  Shelton is coming on strong, wait til you see Nassib with two hands, Ogbah is starting to get it, Schobert is just a kid.

A bunch of the long completions "wide open!" were blown coverages.  Bad calls by inexperienced safeties, and errors by inexperienced defensive backs.  That's what happens with a young team!  

Sure, this team could use upgrades in several areas, but by this time next season, this exact same personnel group on defense could rank in the middle or above...with E X P E R I E N C E DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?

So deferred draft picks are not a bad idea.

Pump the brakes on Cody Kessler if you want.  That's fine.  He could still just sorta flame out like so many others.  But so far, so good, right?  So far, I gotta trust Hue Jackson on this one.

It's not just the Josh McCown-like guts and leadership.  It's literally his accuracy and decision-making.  He overcame a lot of early pressure with his feet, and pulled something out of that fire repeatedly.

I really liked Brian Hoyer, you know?  But when I saw him leave the pocket, it was time to change the channel: that play was over.  Kessler is different.  You can't teach that stuff.  That's probably what Hue was talking about.

And the come-backs, when the defense knew he had to pass, and pass aggressively.  They didn't close the deal, but that wasn't his fault.  He had Gary, Terrelle, and guys named Joe.  Wait til Coleman comes back!

Check this out: Kessler belongs right there with Wentz and Prescott!

I got my fingers crossed on Cam Erving.  If he doesn't get better in a hurry, Kessler won't last.  

This is Cleveland.  For every ray of sunshine, there is a dark cloud.

Well, go TRIBE!!!

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Boycott Temper Tantrums

Some of you people need to use your brains more.  The word "excuse" has become a dirty word, but it's not.  "Excuse" means justification, explanation, reason.

"No excuses" is cool to say.  It makes everybody think you are a hardass.  But if I lock you in a room long enough, you are going to pee in the corner. 

This year's Vikings can sort of say that.  They lose both their superback and Bridgewater, but are still undefeated.  Except they traded for Sam Bradford, see?  They DID something to fix an "excuse", and they have a dominating defense.  And they're a VETERAN team.

This is reality:  The Browns ARE young.  The coaches and systems ARE new.  They ARE rebuilding.  They HAVE lost a bunch of players to injury.  They DID get screwed by referees in three of their losses, and Tom Brady's Patriots ARE top Superbowl contenders.

And they TOLD you, before training camp began: We are rebuilding.  This will take several years.  They EXPLAINED it to you, in advance.  

One impatient brat couldn't take it anymore.  He is boycotting the new front office and coaching staff.  He conflates Jimmy Haslam with Randy Lerner and every other employee and player with those who came and went before them in some sort of muddy mess.  For him, nothing is different.  He is boycotting the Browns.

Well, go ahead and kick and scream and have your temper tantrum.  Thanks for making room for an adult.

Aside from the Tribe nailing down an American League Championship berth (Go Tribe yay), other good news includes the probable returns of both Cody Kessler and Josh McCown in time for the Titans game.

I would default to Kessler, who had been doing a very good job and might be the future.  On the other hand, if he is subject to getting re-injured and would be better off healing some more, then I go with Josh.

Same goes for Josh.  He probably should wait longer himself.  But Josh McCown is...expendable.  He understands and accepts this.  He is a true warrior, this guy.  

Kessler has proven something, however.  He might be the guy.  Even if he isn't, he is valuable.  He needs to get real experience, and develop.

Johnathan Cooper is a smart addition to this team.  Truly, he has been a bust so far in his career, but was a seventh overall draft pick in 2013 for a reason.  He may turn out to be another Gilbert, but he may also emerge as the real stud the scouts in 2013 envisioned.  Low risk, high reward.  Now the coaches go to work on him.  We'll see.

PFF rates the Browns offensive line 25th in pass protection, which is just about right.  But the weak spot is right tackle.  The rest of them are pretty good.

I don't know where they rank in run-blocking, but it has to be very high, even after the Patriots shut them down last week.  Don't expect Tennessee to manage that.

...but an offensive explosion wouldn't surprise me much good grief...


Monday, October 10, 2016

Did You Think the Browns Were Ready? Really?

The 2016 Browns are not a "sick joke", nor are the the "same old Browns" because they got dominated by Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.

I wrote that I expected a closer game, but Kessler went down.  If there is a sick joke to be found in this, that's it.  God another one? 

Then Whitehurst too why the hell not?  As for that, Whitehurst is no Josh McCown.  When he took over, the writing was on the wall.  The Patriots were muffling the running game, and rapidly putting the Browns in must-pass mode.

The offense was hanging in there with Kessler.  He was handling things better than I had suspected in his third NFL start vs this defense, and when the run wasn't working.

What Brady did to this defense came as no surprise.  You can say it sucks, but the big problem is inexperience more than talent.  A safety reacts to Brady's eyes, and comes off his tight end in front of the end zone?  Really?  Not to mention the calls.

Lack of four man pressure is maddening, and a real problem, especially against Brady and his ilk.  There were a couple blown coverages and dumb moves in the secondary, but you can't blame them for all of this.

Who can stop a perfect pass to Gronk?  Nobody.  

But in general, get real:  This was the youngest team in the NFL vs a well-oiled machine.  This team was 3-1 and did worse to the Texans (a GOOD team) without Tom Brady.

The Browns aren't ready for primetime yet.  That's a revelation now?  Where have you been?  

If Kessler hadn't been injured, do you assume that the Sith Lord and Patricia would have just figured out a way to shut him down?

Pryor is impressive, but unfortunately didn't have himself to throw to.  Have you forgotten the loss of two centers in three weeks?

This game meant little.  Mohammud Ali might have been the greatest, but if Cassius Clay had taken on the heavyweight champ fresh off his Gold Medal, he would have been pounded to mush.  He started at the bottom, vs tomato cans, and had over thirty fights before he took on Liston.

The Browns just took on Liston too soon, with predictable results.  Get over it.  They'll be better next time.  Players improve with experience.

Same old Browns?  That's absurd!  Same old Hue?  Same old rookies?  What the hell are you talking about?  

As I write this, Cody Kessler's status is unresolved, but nothing seems to be broken.  I hope he can come back, because he was passing all his tests with flying colors.  The offense was better with him in there.

Once Whitehurst took over, the Patriots defensive playbook changed.  Whitehurst has a strong arm, but not the same accuracy or mobility.  The running game, which had worked intermittantly, suddenly disappeared completely.  They weren't worried about Whitehurst.  

Give the guy credit for a nice touchdown pass.  He did ok.  But the rookie was better.

This is about next season, and those to follow.  Seventeen rookies and Terrelle Pryor will return to a now familiar team and system with real NFL experience under their belts.  They will be joined by a BUNCH of high draft picks.

They still won't be ready for the big game, but they'll be better.  Obviously.  I see the growth.  It will come. 




Sunday, October 9, 2016

Got My Brady Voodoo Doll Ready

I was stunned by this article by Micheal McD, who covers the Patriots.  In it, he outlines what he expects the Patriots to do to the Browns.

It was educational.  I didn't know that Patricia and the Sith Lord used a three-safety base defense.

Mike, like myself, thinks they'll put their second cornerback on Pryor, but give him safety help over the top.  He feels they should try to deal with Crowell without replacing a safety with a linebacker.

He didnt't explain why, but it probably has something to do with Gary Barnidge and Duke Johnson.  The three safeties are more effective against tight ends and running backs who can line up outside at any time.

The defensive tackles are big, but the defensive ends are Sheard and Long, which is a nasty combination.  They should try to funnel the running back inside to Brown and Branch, the tackles.

As Chris admits, it's a tall order.  Unlike the arrogant prick in Baltimore, Chris did some homework, and knows how close the Browns came to winning their last three games.

The schematic matchups do not favor the Patriots here.  The delayed draws I described in my last post, which they used on the Redskins, put those two elite defensive ends in a bad spot.  If they go outside the tackle, they concede the edge.  If they cross the tackle's face or otherwise go inside, they open up the flats...

Ok see this is like a stationary read-option.  If the end crashes inside, Crow or Johnson can go behind them.  Sheard or Long have to dive at full speed, and can't check their momentum quickly enough to do more than claw at them as they go by in the opposite lane.

I'm in the weeds here: Last week, Buffalo screwed this defense up with quick slants and crosses.  Those who criticized Patricia and Darth Insideous about this are mystical worshippers who can't figure out why they didn't use the force to stop it.

Of course, the adjustment is short zone coverage, and I don't need a replay to know the Patriots went to it right away.  This forces wide receivers to STOP "Sit down" to catch passes.  It gives them space to catch it, but deprives them of momentum, and makes it easier for defenders to take them down right there.  The defenders are positioned to keep the receiver short underneath.

If a receiver catches a ball in stride against zone coverage, he is going to get knocked out.

Well, it simply didn't work, because the players failed to get the receivers on the ground right away, and they made serious YAC yards.

Zone is the likliest way the Pats will try to contain Pryor.  No doubt, they'll show zone and play soft man, or vice versa to screw up the baby quarterback and raw receiver, but playing him tight is futile until he's gone horizontal...except he can FORCE man, and clear the zone behind him.

Pryor isn't a typical receiver.  He can gobble up his pad faster than a cornerback can backpedal, and force him to turn around lest he get his doors blown off.  And he can't release him to a safety man-on-man.

When he has a McCourty or somebody deeper, he times his turn to match speeds as Pryor goes by him...

But he can't run with Pryor.  He will lose ground on him stride by stride, and he will be open for an accurate high pass from the get-go.

But the safety is there -whew-... except Pryor is 6'5".  The safety retains an inside bias to deprive Pryor of 2/3rds of the field, and can't get "on" him, because he can't match his speed either.

He has to stay behind and away from him in as the deep part of a bracket, and like I said biased inside.

A smart safety will have studied films, so he can anticipate a timing pass, and know where it's going in advance.  If this is Travis Benjamin, he can jump the route for a breakup or pick, or at least time his hit to blast him.

But this guy is 6'5", 230 lbs.  If the pass is accurate, the safety has zero chance of a breakup or pick.  He can time his hit, but if he hangs back to accomplish this, he concedes the reception, even if the throw is a little off.

Meanwhile, Pryor can also STOP as the cornerback turns with him, to catch the pass already on it's way (comeback).

These Browns can do this to these Patriots.  Terry Pluto doesn't think Kessler had the arm to go deep.  See "Brian Sipe/ Rucker/Logan."

The Dark Lord and Patricia are geniusess, and these players are smart and talented, but this is physics.  They can't just allow Crow and Duke to run all over them all day, and Pryor is the new Megatron.  They can't just ignore Barnidge, either.

While you've been dozing, the '16 Browns grew a diverse offense.  I want to see the big rookie wide receivers vs single coverage, and await Barnidge coming out of mothballs too.

Bill might be able to slow down the run, or Pryor.  He can't do both.

That's why I respectfully disagree with Mike.  Bill and Matt might well try random inside blitzes (5 man pressures) to disrupt Kessler and the run at the same time.  This puts it on Kessler to identify and burn the blitze in a hurry, and might force the inexperienced kid to screw up.

Matt expects a high-scoring, close Patriots win.  No, really, check for yourself!  No not a blowout honest!  He's what you call "objective" (how refreshing!).

I agree.  The Pats offense will score gobs of points, but the Browns offense can keep the team in the race.


Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Cleveland Browns: Dead Team Walking

Roger Goodell did a great job here.  Tom Brady is going to wreak his revenge on the football field.  Yeah, call him a cheater!  Great!  

Robert Kraft is angry.  Bill Belichick is getting called a cheater too.  You think they'll quit going for blood vs the Browns before the final whistle?  In your dreams!  

"Look at THIS, you green eyed monters!  We don't NEED to cheat!"

That wasn't quite perfect, though.  They had to lose to Buffalo last week.  Yep!  

Brady saw Ryan throw for 500 yards last week.  That will be a good starting point for him!  Yep!

The referees won't be helpful.  They'll arrange their weekly ten point swing in favor of the Pats.  Bill and Tom will just get angrier, because that will contaminate what needs to be a clean, pure, massacre.  They'll have to score ten more points just to show they would have anyway.

Oh and Gronk should be ready to rock again.

Gloomy, huh?  

Well Tom has been out of football for a long time, so he might pull a muscle or something.  So we got that goin for us...  

And that's the offense.  The Browns O can't keep up, but might not get shut out.  

As we have all heard several thousand times, Bill Belichick takes away the opposing offense's best weapon/tactic, and forces them to do something else with somebody else.


I'm not sure what he'll make of these Browns.  

Well, Cody Kessler has been efficient, but averages a little over 5 yards per completed pass so far.  Any merely mortal defensive genius would be strongly tempted to squeeze the field verticly to mess up the shorter routes and the run at the same time.  Until Kessler throws some bombs, he's a dink passer, so you try to jump some routes and blow up some receivers.

Crowding Terrelle Pryor is dangerous, and you don't do that if McCown or Griffin is the quarterback, but your odds are better with Kessler.

But Bill doesn't underestimate people.  And I mean Hue Jackson---not Kessler.  Naturally, Hue has had training wheels on the kid in his first two starts, and Josh Norman was on Pryor in the last game.

If I saw Kessler completing deep passes (notably the season before last in a different offensive system), so has Bill.  And this would be a great time for a desperate Jackson to have have his kid and Pryor go for the throat, if he puts a guy close in on Pryor.

Most coaches with this kind of offensive firepower wouldn't worry about one suprise touchdown, but Belichick can't stand leaving anything to chance.

His insurance would be a single high safety; a center fielder.  This leaves ten other guys to squeeze Kessler's preferred routes, and to get in Cowell's way.

A note here: Those runs by Crowell were not conventional.  They were like a combination of a delayed draw and a read option.  Look at the tapes:

Kessler and Crowell just sort of stood there, side by side, looking downfield, before Kessler finally handed off.

Here is what I think Doctor Jacksonstein thought up:

One back, no more than one in-line tight end (spread).

These were G-power runs behind pulling guards, although the tackles drove the ends outside.  The delay gave the guards (mainly Bitonio) time to get upfield, while also pulling the corners downfield along with the receivers.

Because what did they see?  They saw the quarterback holding the ball, and his running back standing there in a max protect look.  They had to stay on the receivers.  The deep safety had to hang back.

In a normal run, most edge-rushers are expected to crash down on inside runs, and usually have the speed and quickness to do it.  A normal run, however, is immediate.  In the absence of that handoff and motion, the edge rushers will commit behind the tackles to close on the pocket, because it looks like a pass, sorta, and if they come free, the running back has to block them, and can't be an outlet receiver.

I'm convinced that had a receiver come open (I haven't checked, but bet at least one of them was going postal), Kessler would have thrown the ball, rather tham hand it off.

Meanwhile, Crowell is watching things set up in front of him, mentally plotting his course...with big eyes.  The big lumbering linemen were all set up by the time he got the ball.  He didn't have to hesitate.  The edge guys were lost in the dust behind him, his blockers were mauling the aggressive interior linemen and uncertain linebacker(s), and he had HUGE holes to sprint through at full speed.

Crowell is doing great with yards after contact, but that first contact is often two or more yards up the field, and he's not cutting; he's all-up sprinting straight ahead.  His MOMENTUM breaks tackles.

The Sith Lord will of course have seen this, and sense the force strong in this young Head Coach.  But doing something to neutralize it is no simple matter.

He can time up a delayed blitze over the hole the pulling guard exposes, but this is one of the things Kessler and Hawkins or Barnidge are looking for, and Crow is there to pick it up.

Part of the solution is inside pressure.  The Redskins didn't have the inside down linemen to produce it.  Bill does, and the Browns just lost yet ANOTHER center!  But there must be actual penetration.  Driving the center back won't work here.

It's possible that, after several hours of contemplation, Bill will decide to just go with five man pressures (inside) all day.  This takes a defender out of coverage, and also out of position for the run if he's rerouted or late, but plugs one of the holes, and by forcing Crowell to protect, puts it all on the rookie quarterback.

That's probably what he'll do.  The rest of the defense will know where the weak spot is; where Crowell is likely to go, and the coverage guys can bait traps and anticipate hot reads.

The fun part of football is that nothing is a sure thing.  Bill for sure wants to put everything on Cody Kessler.  He won't be able to shut the run down entirely, but he can eliminate it as an option half the time when Hue uses this particular strategy, and force the kid to think fast.

But then, Hue Jackson won't attack New England exactly the same way.  For all I know, he'll load up with goons and try to steamroll them.  He might use Pryor at quarterback more (one tackle for loss doesn't scrap that).  He will certainly not stick to any tendancies he knows the Sith Lord has on tape.

I know the Browns will lose.  I just think they can make it fun for a little while.

One Fantasy "expert" recommends the Patriot defense vs the Browns offense.  How ignorant.  Go Brady Edelman Gronk etc I get it; the Browns defense has sucked.

But now you have to toss the offense into the same dumpster?  Why?  Because of the two late turnovers and referee gift late in the most recent game?  All of a sudden they can't run or pass or score touchdowns any more?

Don't get all fuzzy!  The defense sucks, but the offense doesn't, and by the way this is 2016.

Anyway, as they await Tom Brady with his axe and hood, the Browns can resolve to meet their fate like men.

Anything I can do?  Need a Bible?  Any messages for family members?  Got your wills up to date?  I'd say good luck, but...

Late add: a shocking number of Ohioans think that Ohio State would beat an NFL team which needed to get screwed by referees to lose to the Ravens, Dolphins, and Redskins.

Sadly, they are allowed to vote in real elections, too.  God help us.




Sunday, October 2, 2016

State of the Cleveland Browns: A Pragmatic View

If you are enraged or depressed by the Browns' loss in Washington, you're not being realistic.  The game was lost on three turnovers.  This is not a chronic problem.

This is a rebuilding team, and what is important is the fact that a bunch of KIDS went toe-to-toe with a well-established, very talented, well-coached veteran team.  They stuck with the run, and the rookie quarterback overcame an even bigger point deficit than he did in his first ever start last week.

While the defense utterly failed to pressure Cousins until the second half, the secondary covered well.  Yes it did.  When a pass is perfectly timed and accurate, the defender can't stop it, period.  Kirk Cousins is exceptionally accurate, and the issue was pressure ONLY.  He rarely had to hurry, or flee the pocket.  His feet were planted, he saw the whole field, and went receiver-shopping.

The Skins ability to run the ball was frustrating, yes.  But this was the first time in four games any offense has managed that vs this defense.  That's not chronic either.  This is 20 SIX TEEN ok?

The biggest sign of progress was the Browns' running game.  Crowell has finally, at long last, found his inner Beast Mode.  Everybody will talk about that, but few will bother to mention the huge, massive holes his offensive line and other blockers opened for him and Duke, right up the gut, over and over and over again.

That is HUGE!!!  They did it against Miami's murderers row a week ago, and the Redskins were ready for it, and still couldn't stop it.

Understand this: This is the macho test.  This is me telling you, I am going to run you over in advance, and then DOING IT.  Physicly overpowering you.  Kicking sand in your face.

We haven't seen this in Cleveland since Marty Schottenheimer.

Cody Kessler is surprising everybody but Hue Jackson.  His interception was NOT a bad decision, but bad timing.  If he had led Pryor by three more feet, Norman couldn't have undercut the route OR prevented the catch.

He's been practicing with Pryor for two weeks.  Pryor may not have even been running that pattern (it's absolutely the hardest one for him to get separation on) three weeks ago.

It's not CHRONIC ok?  Kessler is still just a baby ok?

Kessler's performance overall has been impressive.  Stop comparing him to the other rookies who started game one with well established veteran teams.  Hue asked us to trust him on this.  So far, so good.

The defense needs more pressure.  Cam Johnson brought it in the second half.  Good for Ray Horton, giving him another shot.  Carl Nassib will be back soon, and that guy is just a fa-reek!!!

Oh yes.  Doctor Jacksonstein is building a monster.  Stand by.


Terrell Pryor: WR WR WIDE RECEIVER DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

1: Terrelle Pryor piled up 140 yards vs Miami as a W I D E.  R E C E I V E R.  According to my research, Josh Norman has not found a way to make him shorter or slower.

Norman and the referees can mess Pryor up, since Norman can be a human ball and chain as well as any cornerback.  But if the referees call it straight, Norman can't stop him without help over the top.

2: Wentz, Prescott, and Siemeon have been awesome.  Pundits need to stop setting Cody Kessler's bar that high.

Pick pick pick held the ball too long pick pick didn't air it out pick pick stop it he is a rookie!  He was under constant pressure and came from behind.  He should have notched a win.  Completed two thirds of his passes.

He played better than I expected him to play.  He is here to manage games.

3: Ask Jim Miller about kickers.  They are very particular about how a HOLDER holds the ball.  It takes practice to get it right.  But just in case, I recommend touchdowns.  And two point conversions.

The Browns will pressure the quarterback more this week.  Ray Horton is due to introduce more "games" to his baby defense.  

This team is getting better, in a hurry.  They will upset somebody soon.  Maybe today.