Today was a day of surprises for me, as both Paul Kruger and Andy Lee said good bye. I've had time to just skim over some really good articles on this by people who actually seem to comprehend what is called "analytics".
The aforelinked article and this one address that topic so well that I can zero in on the football part.
First, however, Bill Livingston is delusional. He thinks the Browns traded Andy Lee because he wouldn't make a tackle in a preseason game. This is insulting Hue Jackson. He was ticked off at Andy (I'm not sure why), but smart coaches don't dump good players based on chickenshit.
As the second article says, they got a great deal for Andy, and the team is still under construction.
The Kruger thing only surprised me a little. As I've mentioned, the Browns are eyeball deep in 3-4 outside linebackers and 4-3 defensive ends. Orchard, Ogbah, Nassib, and even Cam Johnson are the future here.
Nassib has indeed been tested inside, and I was wrong: He looks good there. But he still looks better outside. Schobert is listed as an OLB, but he's more a 4-3 than 3-4 type who can play anywhere.
I still think Kruger can play, and that he was wasted in coverage last season by the "they'll never see this coming!" Pettine coaching staff. But he did have a hefty salary, is NOT good in coverage, and had become expendable.
Here's another potential surprise for you: Contrary to popular mythos, having an old wide receiver is not mandatory, and Hawkins is on the bubble.
He has had injuries and concussions. Taylor Gabriel and Jennings are looking really good in the slot, and even Marlon Moore has mutated into a real wide receiver.
Most guys mocking up 53 man depth charts wrote Hawkins in in ink, simply because he's experienced. Anybody ever hear of this guy named Al Saunders? Come on, people: They run around and catch footballs cut it out!
I LIKE Hawk, by the way. But this is business.
Sashi and Paul have more surprises in store for you. Stand by.
This just in: The latest Depth chart after the cuts is out.
It shows Ogbah and Orchard as the first team OLBs. They have Hughes (then Nassib) at one of the DE spots, and X Cooper and Armonty Bryant at the other.
That probably means that Cooper and Bryant are over the right tackle in the base, with Hughes and Nassib inside. I'm batting around .150 with this stuff. But I will pick up the pieces of my shattered ego and move on somehow.
Self-correction: Nassib and Hughes are at LDE, with Cooper and Bryant at RDE (really under-tackle). Whew thought I was going insane there. Ok this makes more sense: Cooper and Hughes are for running downs and Bryant and Nassib are passrushers. The run guys are nominal starters.
Cooper is actually a penetrator himself, so it's being set up like I expected, and my batting average is just fine: the right defensive end will attack and the linebackers and safeties will back him up. They're trying to stop opposing running backs in their own backfield, and force them to the other side of the field.
Hughes will engage the right tackle, but Nassib will probably also attack. There's no way Ray Horton uses these four players the same way.
On Nassib, this guy looks really, really special. He could be huge. He already looks like a veteran.
Notably, Shobert is (for now) the number two weak outside linebacker, and the unheralded Cam Johnson backs up Orchard on the strong side. Everybody except Shobert can put their hands in the dirt and are passrushers first.
Shobert is the only true linebacker, and putting him on the weak side makes sense. The guy can get after the quarterback, but can't engage offensive linemen to do it.
This is a ball of confusion, of course, as Shobert is probably the 4-3 weakside backer to...I dunno I get a headache figuring out all the insideously diabolical stuff Ray Horton is plotting.
If you think this defense will suck, check this out: Based on this depth chart, five of the eleven starters have one or fewer years in the NFL. Three of the second team players are the same, and most of them should get significant playing time.
With a new system being installed on top of this, bad performances are pretty much guaranteed until they learn the ropes. What did you expect?
Another great thing here is the Tank Carder story. He is now a second team inside linebacker, ahead of the draft picks. He is getting what he has earned.
All the other players see this stuff. There is no favoritism here. If you show these coaches that you are one of the best, you will be rewarded for it. This is a hopeful, positive environment.
I really wish my boss was like that.
No comments:
Post a Comment