As any Browns fan could have predicted, a very angry and determined Tom Brady will be turned loose in game five against you know who.
It was inevitable, from the moment a former Browns linebacker noticed a football felt soft.
I happen to think that by game five, the Browns' defense will be average or above, and getting real pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
I don't expect that to matter much. Possibly it would if this was just a normal game. Brady might take them too lightly or something. But not when the guy had this game circled on his calender, simmering...waiting...truly, we won't like Tom Brady when he's angry.
No doubt, the week before the game, some Browns knucklehead will call him a cheater or something...just to make sure (btw imagine if Donald Trump was the owner. So many bulletin boards, so little time!)
Josh Gordon (if he's retained) will be a footnote outside of Cleveland. The under/over on Brady yards and touchdowns ought to be around 370 and 4.5. Everybody will watch this game. We like to see traffic accidents too. We're sick like that.
But once the game starts, a surprising sub-plot could well emerge.
Brady will be playing the Browns defense. Josh Gordon plays offense.
Ok: We already know that some how, some way, Tom Brady will find a way to inflict massive damage on even a much-improved Browns defense, but we're skipping every other chapter in this book:
Oh, I hear you laughing. But the New England Patriots defense isn't that great. Bill Belichick is a genius, and does well with the guys he has, but most of the money has gone into his offense for awhile now. Not just Brady, but Gronk (God will HE be fun to play NOT) and Edelman.
They outscore other teams. That's how they've been winning for years. The 2016 Bengals and Steelers will have better defenses (notice who I left out haha?).
Still laughing? Why? I know there are questions about RG3, but Josh McCown averaged 22 points a game with Gary Barnidge and...uhh...and no running game. And half-crippled for that matter.
These are what we call empirical facts...am I cheating by using them?
Black Cloud can find some real ammo to inflict bashery on the Browns Offense, like right tackle (?) and Cameron Erving (?) and inexperience at wide receiver, but excuse me for thinking that these issues are being overstated.
Whoever winds up at right tackle is unlikely to be as good as Mitchell Schwartz, but I remind you that Alex Mack was average last season, and this wide receiver experience stuff has always been blown out of proportion.
And certainly, as of game four, this inexperience is at least partly offset by a sudden infusion of serious new talent.
How much do you think coaching has to do with offensive productivity? Ok! So why are you pretending that Hue Jackson and company are irrelevant?
Now, do you hate Gary Barnidge and Duke Johnson? Ok! You may now please acknowledge their existence (thank you).
I would have mentioned Hawkins, who is kind of the Browns version of Danny Amendola, but I'm not sure he'll make the final cut, or that he'll be kept if Gordon is activated (age/injuries/microscopic stature).
So what am I talking about here? Well, Crowell and Terrell, for two. Just read previous posts: They're being massively underrated by some of you based on shallow and incomplete information and mindless bloviations by people who've conned you into thinking they have a clue.
RG3. I'm far from sold on the guy myself, as people who actually know what they're talking about are dubious, despite Hue Jackson.
I simply prefer to err on the side of the Head Coach (and a minority of other real experts) and expect him to be pretty good.
By the way, a very few poor misguided souls have hoped that RG3 will at least be a good game manager. That's the one thing I can safely guarantee won't happen.
RG3 will either be an elite quarterback, or totally fall on his face. He will never be a classic drop-back quick-read sharpshooter, and that's what a game manager has to be.
The reasons I'm optimistic (if we must use that word) are many. They include the aforementioned offensive skill players, Corey Coleman, Higgins, Payton, and possibly Lewis and others.
His past success is another. We know that he can run one type of offense. Experience is another. He didn't do that well in a West Coast, but learned the scheme and added it to his mental file.
Maturity. He was arrogant, selfish, and demanding. He came down hard, and is a very smart guy who you have to think learned something. Just to make sure, Hue might well be reminding him daily.
Hue Jackson is another reason. Nuff said.
I'm finally here! Josh Gordon! He was RG3's teammate at Baylor, so they know each other. (By the way Coleman is another Baylor guy. That makes two).
Ah, this is repetitive. I'm sorry, but another reason to feel optimistic about RG3 and this offense is that Baylor offensive scheme.
Nutshell review it's 4-wide except the slot guys are right next to the outside guys on the perimeter. This pulls four defenders well away from the box, forces lighter defensive personnel, and mandates (at least) one high safety who can't play shallow. It makes it almost impossible to double-cover any one receiver, and sets up pick--err, I mean rub plays and makes press coverage unwise as well. It maxes the box defenders out at a predictable six, one of which needs to play a middle zone, maxing out the pass rush at five. Still with me here? This opens up the run, most obviously off-tackle, but also up the gut (want me to explain why? I didn't think so.)
Because Terrell Pryor is also already here, I'm now 95% certain that Hue Jackson, at least in 2016, will lean heavily on Baylor principles.
That's because it's pretty simple for the receivers, and somewhat easier for the quarterback as well. The stars are all aligned here in 2016 for the Baylor.
Naturally, the smarter enemy defensive coordinators can do simple arithmetic as well as my humble self, and put the lab to work on the antidote, but Hue himself is underrated as a strategist and tactician.
There will be some three wides, conventional, two-back, two tight end stuff to keep everybody honest, but here are some things the enemy coaches can't do anything about:
1: Duke Johnson is a former wide receiver who has/can/will split out wide.
2: Barnidge and DeValve can split out wide in this offense.
3: Pryor is a former for real quarterback who will never run an end-around without looking to pass first.
The Browns huddle will offer no clue as to what formation they'll set up in. Hue will decide on that based on film study first, but adjust as he sees what the defense does.
The most important single factor is matchups, as Hue has repeated around 140 times so far. Enemy coaches know they need to get in RG3's face and occlude his lateral vision and lanes, but unless they have a top-flight passrushing defensive line, they have to commit more people to that, and as a general rule passrushers don't cover well...
Ok it's deep, but suffice it to say that Hue will use a lot of Baylor and half-Baylor and get away with it because defenses won't be able to commit the right people to stop it without getting trampled on the ground.
The other factor is of course RG3's mobility, which inhibits the pass rush. Passrushers can't pin their ears back. They have to make sure not to open up gaps he can run through.
Since Hue will also roll him out and use some read-option, they also can't count on him being in the pocket...ok more weeds here but trust me, Hue is really having fun figuring out how to make the most of his new toys ok?
Ok I've been dancing around this, and now it's time to get Black Cloud working on my tin foil hat:
I expect some issues with inexperience for the Browns in the first four games and (without bothering to even check the schedule) a1-3 or 0-4 record wouldn't surprise me (do they play the perennially overrated Ravens in that stretch? Hope so! They need some confidence going to meet the Bradystein monster).
Hue will of course be all primed up for Bill Belichick, especially since he'll be literally toe-to-toe with this legend calling the offensive plays.
Bill targets the opponents primary weapon, and prevents them from doing what they want to do first and foremost.
Well, regardless of the Browns win-loss record at that time, here is what I believe Bill could be figuring out:
No offensive weapon that stands out. A balance between deep passes and runs/dink passes.
But the reason no offensive weapon stands out is that Corey Coleman and Terrell Pryor have two Tds each, both average nearly 20ypc, Pryor has 75 passing and 36 rushing yards but that's gimmicks. They average 4ypc so ok maybe stop the run first I guess.
But wait! Pryor is starting outside, and now here comes Josh Gordon too! Count Gordon out? I don't think so!
Ok Pryor/Coleman/Gordon well forget trying to jam all that up at the same time, I've got to zero in on RG3, and maybe I can blow up some runs while I'm at it. Force some desperate throws for picks, throwaways, second and third and longs.
Ok so how do I do that? Well first off, Hue knows I have to do that, and that I don't have lot of secondary depth. He'll use that never to be sufficiently damned Baylor crap, rollouts and read-option... I might not see a pocket all day even on third and long.
Maybe I can go all-out in coverage. My offense with Tom all pissed off like he is should score at least 36 points on these guys, and can come back at the end if they need to.
...but all three of these guys are lethal, and there's that Duke Johnson who could blow me up too. I can't give RG3 TIME, and trust three guys to nail him in six seconds when he could gain 40 yards scrambling in that time...
So should I sell out attacking?
No. Not when Gordon or Coleman can take a high inaccurate lob to the house, and I know Jackson wants me to try that...so...what do I do?
Max out coverage. Keep everything in front of my back end. Run zone, try to get a pick or knock the ball loose. They'll score, but not enough fast enough.
I can use misdirection and deception to screw Erving and all those receivers up, and commit RG3 to wrong calls pre-snap...
Jackson will have the leash off him. He'll hurt us on the ground, but...
But you see, Bill Belichick will be picking his poison and relying on his offense to outscore an offense he aspires to contain, but knows he can't stop.
And check that out: Coleman, Gordon, and Pryor. Still laughing?
If so, I feel sorry for you.
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