Wednesday, July 27, 2016

The 2016 Browns Won't Suck. Much. I Don't Think

I read this article on "why your team sucks", and include this link because this guy is really funny.

Unfortunately, he's more concerned with imitating Don Rickles or Vincent Black than he is with accurate analysis.  

I have many, many corrections to make here.

First, RG3's knee appears to be stable, and RG3's straight line speed is mostly back.  The writer, so determined to be negative at each and every opportunity, made him sound like Gabby Hayes.

He's right to point out that Hue massively overpaid for Carson Palmer during his head coaching season at Oakland, and got nothing out of him.  Bruce Ariens then signed him and produced a juggernaut.

All true.  But it's kind of hard to bring a guy in without a training camp, offensive line, or receivers and do much with that.  Hue's big mistake was the roster move itself.

He's right about most of his history.  Who can deny that?  I'm just getting pretty weary of the Manswell stuff.  This guy manages to find new ways to be funny about it, but I think we've scraped the last we can get out of the bottom of that barrel. Let's move on, shall we?

Where the writer really goes off the cliff was in bashing DePodesta, Brown, and everybody else who isn't a coach.

Why, did you know that somebody fired DePodesta once?  It's true!  And they called him "Google Boy" (ok that's funny).  How can he show his face in public?

The best case scenario, this guy writes, is that Haslam fires everybody after five games or something.

Please stop.  I know this guy wants to entertain people (and I must admit does), but deep sixing the front office and analytics before their free agents and draft picks have stepped on the field is a little much.

What really ticked me off were the pages and pages of Browns fans having temper tantrums about the Browns he appended to the end of his article.  Now I know where he did his research!

Hue Jackson might as well not show up.  

How long has Haslam owned the team?  In a lot of tiny little microbrains, he raced to a dead heat with Art Modell in the despicability contest sometime during his second training camp.

Nobody seems to get this: He is Haslam, not Modell or Lerner.  Aside from Sashi, none of these guys was even here last season.

Hue Jackson is the first former head coach hired since Mangini, and this is by far the most experienced (and highly reputed) coaching staff.

It's way, way too early to judge this draft class, but it seems to be pretty good. Outside of Cleveland, the veteran free agents they signed are regarded as solid players.

I respect this writer as a talented entertainer, but the comments he added to the end of his article sounded like a bunch of sqwalling brats (except for the "fuck fucking fuck fuck" part).

I do have a few more corrections to make in general here:

Josh Gordon was one of the better wide receivers in the NFL.  In year two he was unmistakably the best wide receiver in the NFL.

I know that to be considered credible, writers tend to avoid hyperbole which some could interpret as bias or homerism, but in Cleveland it gets kind of silly.

Hell, after he caught for 800 yards with Weedon and Lewis or somebody, they were saying he might become a decent wide receiver eventually.

He averages nearly 120 yards per game after that, and he's "one of the better" oh please stop it just forget he's a Brown and tell the truth you're killing me.

Duke Johnson may or may not be a complete running back.  His yards from scrimmage (and the subset between tackles) yards per carry were mediocre in his rookie season, but he was held down by DeFelipo's unnecessary tinkering and left-handed playcalls the same as Crowell was.

Saying anything like "he will never be a good inside runner" is really extremely premature.  As I've mentioned, if you really go back and look at his tapes, he's not just quick and fast, but wields a lethal stiff-arm and is surprisingly strong and hard to take down.

The new ex-cowboy defensive lineman recently signed is a solid player who can help as part of the rotation, but is unlikely to play LEFT defensive end in Horton's favorite front; He will not replace Des Bryant and probably won't get in Hassan's way either.

YOU STAND CORRECTED


Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Week 5: Brady Back! Wins a Close One!

As any Browns fan could have predicted, a very angry and determined Tom Brady will be turned loose in game five against you know who.

It was inevitable, from the moment a former Browns linebacker noticed a football felt soft.

I happen to think that by game five, the Browns' defense will be average or above, and getting real pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

I don't expect that to matter much.  Possibly it would if this was just a normal game.  Brady might take them too lightly or something.  But not when the guy had this game circled on his calender, simmering...waiting...truly, we won't like Tom Brady when he's angry.

No doubt, the week before the game, some Browns knucklehead will call him a cheater or something...just to make sure (btw imagine if Donald Trump was the owner.  So many bulletin boards, so little time!)

Josh Gordon (if he's retained) will be a footnote outside of Cleveland.  The under/over on Brady yards and touchdowns ought to be around 370 and 4.5.  Everybody will watch this game.  We like to see traffic accidents too.  We're sick like that.

But once the game starts, a surprising sub-plot could well emerge.

Brady will be playing the Browns defense. Josh Gordon plays offense.

Ok: We already know that some how, some way, Tom Brady will find a way to inflict massive damage on even a much-improved Browns defense, but we're skipping every other chapter in this book:

Oh, I hear you laughing.  But the New England Patriots defense isn't that great.  Bill Belichick is a genius, and does well with the guys he has, but most of the money has gone into his offense for awhile now.  Not just Brady, but Gronk (God will HE be fun to play NOT) and Edelman.

They outscore other teams.  That's how they've been winning for years.  The 2016 Bengals and Steelers will have better defenses (notice who I left out haha?).

Still laughing?  Why?  I know there are questions about RG3, but Josh McCown averaged 22 points a game with Gary Barnidge and...uhh...and no running game.  And half-crippled for that matter.

These are what we call empirical facts...am I cheating by using them?

Black Cloud can find some real ammo to inflict bashery on the Browns Offense, like right tackle (?) and Cameron Erving (?) and inexperience at wide receiver, but excuse me for thinking that these issues are being overstated.

Whoever winds up at right tackle is unlikely to be as good as Mitchell Schwartz, but I remind you that Alex Mack was average last season, and this wide receiver experience stuff has always been blown out of proportion.

And certainly, as of game four, this inexperience is at least partly offset by a sudden infusion of serious new talent.

How much do you think coaching has to do with offensive productivity?  Ok!  So why are you pretending that Hue Jackson and company are irrelevant?

Now, do you hate Gary Barnidge and Duke Johnson?  Ok!  You may now please acknowledge their existence (thank you).

I would have mentioned Hawkins, who is kind of the Browns version of Danny Amendola, but I'm not sure he'll make the final cut, or that he'll be kept if Gordon is activated (age/injuries/microscopic stature).

So what am I talking about here?  Well, Crowell and Terrell, for two.  Just read previous posts:  They're being massively underrated by some of you based on shallow and incomplete information and mindless bloviations by people who've conned you into thinking they have a clue.

RG3.  I'm far from sold on the guy myself, as people who actually know what they're talking about are dubious, despite Hue Jackson.

I simply prefer to err on the side of the Head Coach (and a minority of other real experts) and expect him to be pretty good.

By the way, a very few poor misguided souls have hoped that RG3 will at least be a good game manager.  That's the one thing I can safely guarantee won't happen.  

RG3 will either be an elite quarterback, or totally fall on his face.  He will never be a classic drop-back quick-read sharpshooter, and that's what a game manager has to be.

The reasons I'm optimistic (if we must use that word) are many.  They include the aforementioned offensive skill players, Corey Coleman, Higgins, Payton, and possibly Lewis and others.

His past success is another.  We know that he can run one type of offense.  Experience is another.  He didn't do that well in a West Coast, but learned the scheme and added it to his mental file.

Maturity.  He was arrogant, selfish, and demanding.  He came down hard, and is a very smart guy who you have to think learned something.  Just to make sure, Hue might well be reminding him daily.

Hue Jackson is another reason.  Nuff said.

I'm finally here!  Josh Gordon!  He was RG3's teammate at Baylor, so they know each other.  (By the way Coleman is another Baylor guy.  That makes two).

Ah, this is repetitive.  I'm sorry, but another reason to feel optimistic about RG3 and this offense is that Baylor offensive scheme.

Nutshell review it's 4-wide except the slot guys are right next to the outside guys on the perimeter.  This pulls four defenders well away from the box, forces lighter defensive personnel, and mandates (at least) one high safety who can't play shallow.  It makes it almost impossible to double-cover any one receiver, and sets up pick--err, I mean rub plays and makes press coverage unwise as well.  It maxes the box defenders out at a predictable six, one of which needs to play a middle zone, maxing out the pass rush at five.  Still with me here?  This opens up the run, most obviously off-tackle, but also up the gut (want me to explain why?  I didn't think so.)

Because Terrell Pryor is also already here, I'm now 95% certain that Hue Jackson, at least in 2016, will lean heavily on Baylor principles.

That's because it's pretty simple for the receivers, and somewhat easier for the quarterback as well.  The stars are all aligned here in 2016 for the Baylor.

Naturally, the smarter enemy defensive coordinators can do simple arithmetic as well as my humble self, and put the lab to work on the antidote, but Hue himself is underrated as a strategist and tactician.

There will be some three wides, conventional, two-back, two tight end stuff to keep everybody honest, but here are some things the enemy coaches can't do anything about:

1: Duke Johnson is a former wide receiver who has/can/will split out wide.
2: Barnidge and DeValve can split out wide in this offense.
3: Pryor is a former for real quarterback who will never run an end-around without looking to pass first.

The Browns huddle will offer no clue as to what formation they'll set up in.  Hue will decide on that based on film study first, but adjust as he sees what the defense does.

The most important single factor is matchups, as Hue has repeated around 140 times so far.  Enemy coaches know they need to get in RG3's face and occlude his lateral vision and lanes, but unless they have a top-flight passrushing defensive line, they have to commit more people to that, and as a general rule passrushers don't cover well...

Ok it's deep, but suffice it to say that Hue will use a lot of Baylor and half-Baylor and get away with it because defenses won't be able to commit the right people to stop it without getting trampled on the ground.

The other factor is of course RG3's mobility, which inhibits the pass rush.  Passrushers can't pin their ears back.  They have to make sure not to open up gaps he can run through.

Since Hue will also roll him out and use some read-option, they also can't count on him being in the pocket...ok more weeds here but trust me, Hue is really having fun figuring out how to make the most of his new toys ok?

Ok I've been dancing around this, and now it's time to get Black Cloud working on my tin foil hat:

I expect some issues with inexperience for the Browns in the first four games and (without bothering to even check the schedule) a1-3 or 0-4 record wouldn't surprise me (do they play the perennially overrated Ravens in that stretch?  Hope so!  They need some confidence going to meet the Bradystein monster).

Hue will of course be all primed up for Bill Belichick, especially since he'll be literally toe-to-toe with this legend calling the offensive plays.

Bill targets the opponents primary weapon, and prevents them from doing what they want to do first and foremost.

Well, regardless of the Browns win-loss record at that time, here is what I believe Bill could be figuring out:

No offensive weapon that stands out.  A balance between deep passes and runs/dink passes.  

But the reason no offensive weapon stands out is that Corey Coleman and Terrell Pryor have two Tds each, both average nearly 20ypc, Pryor has 75 passing and 36 rushing yards but that's gimmicks.  They average 4ypc so ok maybe stop the run first I guess.

But wait! Pryor is starting outside, and now here comes Josh Gordon too!  Count Gordon out?  I don't think so!

Ok Pryor/Coleman/Gordon well forget trying to jam all that up at the same time, I've got to zero in on RG3, and maybe I can blow up some runs while I'm at it.  Force some desperate throws for picks, throwaways, second and third and longs.

Ok so how do I do that?  Well first off, Hue knows I have to do that, and that I don't have lot of secondary depth.  He'll use that never to be sufficiently damned Baylor crap, rollouts and read-option... I might not see a pocket all day even on third and long.

Maybe I can go all-out in coverage.  My offense with Tom all pissed off like he is should score at least 36 points on these guys, and can come back at the end if they need to.

...but all three of these guys are lethal, and there's that Duke Johnson who could blow me up too.  I can't give RG3 TIME, and trust three guys to nail him in six seconds when he could gain 40 yards scrambling in that time...

So should I sell out attacking?

No.  Not when Gordon or Coleman can take a high inaccurate lob to the house, and I know Jackson wants me to try that...so...what do I do?

Max out coverage.  Keep everything in front of my back end.  Run zone, try to get a pick or knock the ball loose.  They'll score, but not enough fast enough.

I can use misdirection and deception to screw Erving and all those receivers up, and commit RG3 to wrong calls pre-snap...

Jackson will have the leash off him.  He'll hurt us on the ground, but...

But you see, Bill Belichick will be picking his poison and relying on his offense to outscore an offense he aspires to contain, but knows he can't stop.

And check that out: Coleman, Gordon, and Pryor.  Still laughing?

If so, I feel sorry for you.






Monday, July 25, 2016

What About Josh?

I predict that the Cleveland Browns will welcome Josh Gordon back unless they trade or release him.  I guarantee this.

Actually, I know that Sashi, Hue, the team shrink et all will talk to Josh at length.  I've heard Josh Gordon interviewed, and he's surprisingly articulate and intelligent for a guy that gets in so much trouble.

In view of his history, and the paper thin ice he stands on, I doubt that anybody would risk more than a fifth round pick in a trade for him, and he's still young.

I have to lean towards his retention, and one last chance.  This is a risk/reward proposition.  The potential reward is the best wide receiver in the NFL.  The risk is losing him to another suspension, along with the player who was released to retain him.

Let's not get silly here.  That player will not be very good.  You're still not being analytical.

And don't talk about sending messages and other cliches.  Every player on this roster, including the guy who gets cut, comprehends that this guy set several NFL records, and would have to be psychotic to expect him to be treated the same as John Duh.

A lot of people (everybody who knows him, in fact) went to bat for Josh.  He will probably be given his last chance.

Now, the four game suspension is actually convenient, since it will give the coaches an opportunity to evaluate the younger receivers more thoroughly.  This makes it less likely that they'll make a mistake when that last roster move is made.

Josh is allowed to practice with the team, and will get a full training camp in.  This will be VERY helpful for Terrell Pryor, as Josh is a similar type of player, and Terrell can study and learn from him.  And even compete with him!

Risk/reward: If Josh Gordon stays out of trouble, he can change everything.  Remember, the year Gordon set those records (in only fourteen games), he did it with three different, not very good quarterbacks.  He was uncoverable.

RG3 is rooting for him.  Oh hell YES he sure is!  And if Josh returns to the field with RG3, I've got to upgrade RG3's chances of being great again to probable, and the running game of being dominant to certain.

...and of winning eight games to possible.

Risk/reward.  They almost HAVE to bring this guy back.

Stay clean, kid.  Stay clean.

Oops these articles by Tony Grossi just in.  The first is on Browns veterans who could be released.  I can't fault him, but doubt that Crowell is on a bubble.

He attended a Dallas officer's funeral, and appears to have discovered that he has a brain and what it is for.

The second article went more in depth into the Gordon/Browns situation than I have here.  It counterpoints my own position, but I can't knock him here.

I still think I'm right, but Tony makes some great points.

Thanks to Tony, I do know that he can play in the preseason.  To me, that makes his retention for at least that time-frame almost a lock, since if he plays well, he could actually make himself worth more in a trade (if they decide on that).


Terrell Pryor is More than a Gimmick

I'm glad Isaiah Crowell is going to Dallas for deprogramming, and can now forgive him for being a sheep.

It's hard to combat brainwashing when the Comrades from Black Lives Matter will be on stage at the DNC, but at least Crowell should become a voice of sanity.

In an especially good question for Mary Kay Cabot on "Hey Mary Kay", the writer said he felt the Browns would win five games, then nine games in the next two seasons.

That's about right, but like Mary Kay, I feel a lot depends on RG3.  While there are a lot of questions about this guy, the sky is his limit, and the potential is here to exceed those projections.

I did not just predict that he would.  I wrote what I wrote, period.  Read it again if you need to.

The talk about Terrell Pryor's role is getting silly again.  He probably will do some Mohammud Sanu type plays, but so will Corey Coleman.

But both are much, much faster/more dangerous than Sanu, and Pryor is much bigger and taller.  Sanu was an asterisk on the Bengals.  These players will have a much bigger impact.

And I repeat: Terrell Pryor will be competing to START at wide receiver in game one.

Sunday, July 17, 2016

Terry Pluto: You Wrong, Man!

Terry Pluto here wrote a good and bad article.  The Crowell part was good, mostly, except, like most paid writers, he gave propaganda more credence than reality warrants.

I have to ask this, by the way: Have Bill Livingston and Ben Dover ever been seen in the same place at the same time?

He was right that Crowell shouldn't be waived, however.  The idiot has scrambled to make amends, and the music in my ears is his professed intention to "work with" police.  He should be deprogrammed shortly, and ready to tell black kids everywhere that they have been brainwashed.

I know how this will play out, because in addition to being taught to think with my brain, I was part of Cleveland's law enforcement community, and know that the first four or so deprogrammers Isaiah will meet will be black.

Pluto and Livingston need to talk to these guys too.  

But kudos to Terry for including a hostile response from a police officer, who I wouldn't be surprised to find out was black.

Sorry if "black" offends you.  "African-American" is just silly.  Get over it.

Anyway, Terry doesn't seem to understand the Horton defense as well as he should either (must have been distracted--this is rare).

Horton's 3-4 is unique.  Terry thinks that Hughes and Cooper might start at DE.  He says he's heard that Hassan is a bit of a project.  He mentions one of my own favorites in Jamie Meder...

Well I'm nit-picking here, since Terry is talking about good players all-around, BUT:

Cooper doesn't match up well with offensive tackles.  He belongs inside, in a one-gap attack scheme.  

Hughes could neutralize a right tackle vs the run, but lacks the speed to pursue outside.

Horton could tweak his scheme, I guess, but if we stick with his ideal, we need two physical penetrators at nose tackle and right defensive end, and a truly athletic long/tall guy at left defensive end.

In point of fact, Horton's ideal left defensive end is the only REAL defensive end in his line, since both other guys are actually over inside gaps.

Hassan is the only guy on this roster who can play LEFT defensive end the way Ray needs it played.

As I posted earlier, the 3-4 "base" is almost a joke, since like every other defense, the Browns will be in nickels and dimes at least 70% of the time.

This roster is overloaded at inside linebacker, and includes four outside linebackers capable of deploying as defensive ends.

Terry is making a mountain out of a molehill.  Hassan can fill the left DE base-role on 30% of the downs, as long as Ray keeps it simple for him at first.  

As I posted earlier as well, he should come in at 290 lbs or more, now that he's not trying to convince GMs that he can play OLB.  He can keep the tackles off him with his reach, and overmatches them athletically.

Each and every alternative front could eliminate his position with legitimate 4-3 defensive end (or something else-remember this is Ray Horton).

Terry, relax.  Des will definitely be missed.  It will hurt.  But we got this.  No new retreads required.  Please shut the alarms down.  You woke everybody up.


Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Go Terrell Watson!

I have to remain objective and restate that Isaiah Crowell could be a workhorse, big play running back, and that most criticisms of him are at least wrong and often downright stupid.

That's the analyst talking.  But my inner-fan is hoping and praying that the bigger, stronger Terrell Watson will elbow him out of the way.

I've said and done some incredibly stupid things in my life, and it's very rare that I can say this:  I was NEVER that stupid, or that LOW.

Crowell needs to go through some cop training and do some ride-alongs to get his head extracted.  Then he needs to tell black kids cops aren't the enemy.

A disproportionate number of murder victims are black, but most of their killers are black too.  The Poe-lease are trying to protect the former from the latter, and are treated like enemies.

This is bullcrap.  I REMEMBER the dogs and fire hoses and Medgar Evers, and Crowell is a SHEEP being led---

I'm sorry.  I'll move on to more important things:

Desmond Bryant might have been THE best defensive player on the Browns, and this one hurts.

I haven't read all the articles, but skimming the titles, one that stood out was that the Browns were hurt by this loss at an "already thin" position.

Well, if the writer meant at left defensive end in Ray Horton's defense, yep.  But if he meant defensive line in general, that's just dumb.

This puts Hassan on the fast track, and probably makes him the nominal starter at LDE in Bryant's stead.  The remaining guys don't have anywhere near his length, and don't match up well with offensive tackles.

The team remains VERY deep at the other two defensive line spots, and at every spot in situational defensive fronts.

This will effect how Ray Horton uses people: Today's NFL rotates defensive linemen a lot, as they get worn down.  Hassan is a rookie used to shorter seasons, and is also light for his position.

Rookies tend to hit a "wall" after week twelve (it's fascinating, really.  Their bodies actually seem to be "programmed" to sort of shut down after a specific number of games).

Hassan is in harm's way.  He's toe-to-toe with a big goon who is also athletic, and he'll get chipped and cut.  The opposing team as of game one will target him with runs.  With pulling guards and fullbacks.  He's the undersized rookie passrusher, so they'll bully him, try to make him hesitate, and wear him out.

Ray knows all of this, so he might change his plans to use Hassan inside (see earlier post: I think this meant have him biased inside the right tackle and hitting the b-gap).  Hassan might now shade outside the right tackle to protect him from the other blockers.

He might scrap any plans he had to put him inside situationally in order to rest him.

He might also use more 4 man fronts to get him off the field.

You must understand that Ogbah, Orchard, and Kruger are all legitimate 4-3 defensive ends (indeed better than Hassan in this front).  It's even possible that the bigger/badder Mingo could do just fine here too.

There is no NEED to overuse Hassan here, and that long, tall left defensive end is only critical in one of many potential defensive fronts.

So while Des Bryant will be missed, some of you need to kill the alarm sirens, ok?

Related: Schobert and Kirksey are as good outside as they are inside, the Browns are eyeball deep in real linebackers, and two of the safeties excell in the box.

Back to running back: As a newly-minted Watson fan, I see several logical and rational reasons to hope that he will play more and a certain brainwashed frontrunning ignorant sheep will play less.

Because of his catch radius, and (probably) hand-size, he might well be the better receiver.

Because of his greater reach and size, he looks like a better blocker, either in pass protection or for the run.

Because Watson has no history of being tackled by fingertips or wind-gusts, he's number one here, too.

Crowell did have more success in a zone blocking scheme than with man blocking, and it now looks like the 2016 Browns are going man-heavy.

Crowell is faster, can make people miss, and will make more big plays.

Watson will break more tackles, is probably more reliable, and can literally wear a defense down.

In a two-back, Watson/Johnson makes more sense than Crowell/Johnson, because he is more thunderous to Duke's lightening.

Lots to consider here:  

When Duke splits out at wide receiver, Crowell has a slight edge, because he is much more dangerous in space.  While Watson will probably be the better pass-protector, and maybe even the more reliable receiver, I am forced to admit that Baah-Baah is more dangerous.

But that's general: Here Watson should be the better/more consistent inside runner.  So it's very close, and will vary by situation and opponent.

In a two two-back in which Duke does NOT split out, it's Watson hands-down.

He will be the better lead-blocker, better pass protector should Duke peel out, and of course the better tackle-breaker in the heavier traffic a two-back engenders between the tackles.

Watson had a lot of carries and took a lot of abuse in college.  He has had, basically, a year off now, but with his size and style doesn't look like a guy with a long career ahead of him.

But at least for a year or two, he belongs in the NFL and is a human club that Hue Jackson will use as much as he reasonably can.

Crap.  Looks like Crowell is here long-term, especially now that he's radioactive (and cheaper to re-sign).  But hopefully Terrell can teach him how not to fall down when defenders give him dirty looks.


Monday, July 11, 2016

Projecting the Browns Depth Chart and Sentient Life in Cleveland

I was really impressed by this Fanpost article by "Ezweav" (Dawgs by Nature).

Ez projects the Browns 2016 depth chart.  I disagreed with some of this, but the guy backed his play with logic and facts, and I think it would be a lot of fun to argue with him over some brewskies.

I do agree with most of his well thought-out projections.

He hits the ground running by calling Cody Kessler the starting quarterback.

When Skip Bayliss said this, I called him a dumbass, but I can't do that with Ez, because the basis for his opinion was rational, not to mention sentient.  He's even half way persuaded me.

I love the fact that Ez comprehends that arm strength is overrated, and that Kessler actually has a decent arm.  In his more aggressive 2014 scheme, Kessler threw downfield a lot more, and did so effectively.  In 2015, he dinked and dunked, and 2014 never happened.

Like me, Ez had never heard of the guy until Hue (and it WAS Hue) picked him, but after checking some game films, saw a lot to like.

I still lean towards RG3, but like I keep disclaiming, I could be wrong.  Nothing this article said about RG3's flaws was inaccurate.

Ez ranks Ivan Drago (McCown) third.  Like me, he knows that he really should be the starter, but not on a rebuilding team.

Ez is not afraid of controversy.  He projects ex-Bengal monsterback Terrell Davis as the starter over Isaiah Crowell.

Ez feels that Watson fits a smashmouth power scheme better.  I like the guy myself, but kinda sorta disagree.  In a way. A little.

Ez blames Crow for Bitonio's injury, since it was his back Crow ran into the most.  He also doesn't like the fingertip tackles (I agree).  

As Ez himself stipulates, the blocking scheme was confused last season, but Crowell did better with zone-blocking.  But Ez missed the left-handed scheme that allowed defenses to predict every run through week eleven last season, and the fact that Crow averaged 5.2 ypc after that changed.

He's got Duke Johnson third.  It doesn't matter, though: He'll play a ton.

Ez doesn't see him as a feature back.  I don't know.  I do know that he's a compact 205 and surprisingly hard to take down.

Also, if I'm right about the Baylor influenced spread offense, this favors Crow and Duke over Watson.

I do think that Watson will not be a wall flower at all.  He will play a lot.

No surprises on the offensive line.

Ez predicts Coleman and Higgins at wide receiver and Hawk as the primary slot.  He likes Payton almost as much as Higgins.  I agree 100% with all of this.  Except don't count out you know who.

At tight end, Ez stumbled a little.  He's got Telfer at number two, Bibbs third, and DeValve fourth.

Telfer is a legit in-line tight end, but I don't see where Ez got the impression that he was a good receiver.  

And again, if I'm right about the offensive scheme, both Bibbs and DeValve are better fits.

A note on this: The object of blocking is to keep a defender away from the football.  Ok well, if a "tight end" lines up way outside, he is taking a defender away from the football, ok?  And he can still get a piece of him, too.

It was truly refreshing to read somebody else saying that the defense's failures vs the run last season weren't the defensive line's fault.

The linebackers were out of position because they couldn't figure out where they were supposed to go.  Because the scheme was too complicated.

Ez thinks John Hughes will start opposite Bryant.  I think it will be Cooper.  Ray Horton's defensive line will shoot gaps, and that's Cooper, not Hughes.

But I like Hughes a lot, so if I'm wrong I guess I will survive somehow.

He blames the coaches for Kruger's bad 2015 and expects him to start.

Duh.

But he's got Mingo starting on the other side!  No I'm not disagreeing, just surprised.

Like me, he loves Hassan and Ogbah, but can't expect them to start right away.  They'll both play a lot, though.

At inside linebacker, it's DeMario Davis and...Scooby Wright.  Well, Ez mentions a bet he made, so I don't think he meant it.  
Later on, he says he thinks Schobert will start after he has won his bet.  That's about right.  I like Kirksey a lot, but Schobert is special, and more advanced than Wright.

I don't know.  There's a lot of talent there.  I just know that the Browns will be really good at inside linebacker in 16.

Ez knows that Ibraheim Campbell is a stud, and thinks Rahim Moore will be the other starter.

He really sticks his thumb in a lot of eyes by calling Justin Gilbert a starter at cornerback.  I love it.

As you know, I think he has a great chance myself.  He is physically off the charts, and the rest can be coached.  It's up to him, and he's another year older now.

This is not Johnny Manziel here.  Justin has been a real punk, but the new coaches are all happy with his attitude and work ethic NOW...why does everybody think they're lying?

I have to give Ez a solid "A" for this.  I know he's a genius, because I thought I was reading my own stuff...say, waitaminnit...





Sunday, July 10, 2016

Projections Based on Obsolete Data

If I were a Jets fan, I would probably believe this.

Most of it is really smart, as it displays some real insight on the Jets' roster, and real football knowledge.  That's why I include the link: This writer does not suck.

However, he makes the same mistake I have made in the past (I think less often recently):  He doesn't do enough research on the OTHER team.

This guy predicts a bunch of sack records for the Jets when they play the Browns.

This guy is right to think that the Jets should have a scary pass rush in general.  What bothered me was that he picked out the Cleveland Browns as the team they would go apeshit on.

He stipulated Joe Thomas, but essentially labelled the rest of the Browns line "Joe", because Schwartze and Mack are gone.

In reality, the Browns retain two top ten guards.  When PFF ranked Mack in the middle among centers, it's downright dumb to label Cam Erving a downgrade at center entering his second season, and FOUR veteran and rookie players are competing to replace Schwartze in a new blocking scheme.

With a head coach who lately had Andy Dalton running rollouts and read-option to minimize pocket passing, it's not wise to expect your passrushers to have a pocket to attack.

With RG3 the presumptive starter (ergo MORE running around and LESS pocket passing), one has to feel even more confused about why this guy expects sack records against this particular team.

I need to mention here that a strong running game makes it harder for a defense to get sacks.  In this article, I didn't read any predictions about Hue Jackson not having a respectable running game for the first time in his career.

This writer reminds me of me a long time ago.  He knows his team by heart, but he shoots from the hip otherwise.

I use him to make a broader point:

The Cleveland Browns seem to be everybody else's go-to punching bag, but it's all being based on another set of coaches, and at least twenty players who will no longer be on this roster.

If Chris Palmer were the Browns head coach, poor RG3 would be set up right and proper for that Jets pass rush.

But he isn't, and this Jets writer shouldn't get his hopes up.




Tuesday, July 5, 2016

RG3's Chances Hue Jackson's Cleveland Browns

Dave Davenport of the Bleacher Report thinks that RG3 is being set up to fail.

This wasn't a bad article, but it was shallow.

Dave quotes somebody else to assert that the starting wide receivers for this season look like Marlon Moore and Coleman.  He then compares these two to Green and Brown.

Marlon Moore is not going to start.  You can leave Terrell Pryor in the cornfield if you want---let's just use Higgins for giggles.

He acknowledges Gary Barnidge.

He knocks the offensive line and running game based on last season's performance, PFF rankings, and the losses of Mack and Scwartze.

All of that is valid on the surface.  But in 2014 the exact same crew ranked near the top until Alex Mack broke his leg.

Scheme, coaching, and situation has much to do with this:

That offensive line performed better with the inside zone than in man.  Better under Shanahan than under lefty DeFelipo.

While Schwartze came into his own as an elite right tackle, Alex Mack was in reality pedestrian.

RG3 will NOT be a classic pocket passer, and the blocking scheme will not be conventional.  You could say he's being set up to fail if he's ordered to imitate Tom Brady, but he's not.

I've addressed the running game ad nauseam.  The five most recent games most accurately reflect what is here now, and that's not bad.

Dave thankfully doesn't include the defense, which last season wore out, played out of position, was confused by an overly complicated scheme, and put Browns quarterbacks (and pass protectors) constantly behind the eight ball.

Much as I like Josh McCown, a quarterback who holds the ball too long isn't doing his bodyguards any favors with PFF either.

I believe that RG3 has a decent chance to succeed here.  The offense's commitment to the run (and play action) is genuine, and Hue will run an offense tailored to his unique skills.

He will have several nice targets, including reliable ones like Higgins and Barnidge, and bailout guys like Duke Johnson.

Listen: It's hard for a defense to tee off on a pocket when they're not sure there is going to be one, or if there is, where it will be.

It's harder to get heat on a quarterback when they have to contain him.

It's easier for an offensive line to pass protect when he will be moving.  The defenders have to change their trajectories in a predictable way, and again can't tee off.

RG3 could fail.  But if he does, it will be his own fault.

Monday, July 4, 2016

Can't Think of a Title: Cleveland Browns something...

I just read a couple of lines in a snarky, sarcastic Browns article by somebody who doesn't do any homework or else is just plain dumb.

The Browns want RG3 to start because he is one of the most gifted athletes in the NFL, and the only quarterback on the roster with the ability to put the team on his shoulders when necessary.

Is that too complicated or something?

Now, you can predict that Hue Jackson won't be able to rehabilitate the guy, and say he's done.  That's fair, and you might be right.  But the reason they want him to succeed is obvious.

The writer described the rest of the quarterbacks as mediocre, and that was truly ignorant.  Sorry to repeat myself, but here we go:

1: Number one wide receiver:  Travis Benjamin.
Number two wide receiver:  Injured.
Number three wide receiver: You tell me.

2: No running game for most of the season.

3: Broken ribs, separated shoulder, concussion (3a: No time).

4: Constantly playing from behind.

5: McCown had a 92-plus qbr DESPITE all this.  That's not mediocre.  McCown did the same thing with the Bearss too.  (He had a better team then.)

This goober blabbers about McCown might be better or something (I couldn't read it, really I'm allergic to stupid), but that only brings up reason number six why they want RG3 to start:

He is 26.  Starting McCown will not get the 2016 Browns to the playoffs.  NOTHING will do that.  RG3 is still young, and can still improve with experience (notably in the pocket).  They know what McCown is.  At this point, a go-to backup you hope won't get busted up too soon, a teacher, mentor, and example.

By the way, Josh McCown has been with a lot of teams, but he is OURS now, isn't he?  The guts and fire he showed, playing with those injuries...unforgettable.  He's a Brown all right, or at least what you want a Brown to be!  AND a great person!

Reason number seven is analytical. No Harvard degree required to comprehend this: An average or above performance makes him highly tradeable.

Don't ask why they would trade him ok?  They might not but they always want that option.

NON-dumbass Chris Pokorny (Dawgs by Nature) continues his pre-season preview with part 2 of the defensive line.

Chris (and PFF) likes Jamie Meder a lot, and so do I.  I don't believe in "overachievers", since none of us really achieve our potentials, but if there were such a thing, it's Meder.  He doesn't have a really high ceiling, but he starts out on the third floor.

Chris introduces Nile Lawrence-Stample, who sounds remarkably like John Hughes; a big run-stuffer who CAN get a little penetration and pressure.

Chris thinks he has a shot to be the backup nose tackle, but I say so does John Hughes.

He can't help but point out that X Cooper rated dead last with PFF, but I like Chris a lot because he doesn't go on to suggest he sucks.

Good thing.  Chris talks about the importance of stopping the run, but seems to overlook the Ray Horton factor:

This is common: Everybody thinks that a run-stopping defensive line has to two-gap and have guys like Hughes/Meder/Stample, but there are more ways to skin that cat.

The down linemen can one-gap and penetrate, and two inside players (linebackers or one of those and a safety) can plug the leaks (or come with them on run-blitzes for that matter.)

Much depends on the specific opponent and your own personnel, of course.  The one-gap has a better chance vs big goons or zone-blocking, but not against g-power with a fast shifty running back, or a running quarterback.

One-gap is also better vs a brainy quick-release quarterback than a mad bomber too, because this scheme offers no pre-snap clues.

Ok-ok you do know that teams don't always run on "obvious run" downs right?

Anyway you don't want Xavier Cooper two-gapping.  So stipulated.  Mike Pettine had him two-gapping.

He makes the team case closed.

Coaches talked about using Nassib inside:

Well this tells me a lot about their plans:

First, understand that in Horton's scheme the left defensive end needs to have the length and reach to keep the right tackle at bay, and Nassib is "it", period.  He HAS to play that position in this defense, because except for the venerable Des Bryant there is nobody else.

So I believe they will have him shaded inside the right tackle, and attacking the strong side b-gap a lot.

How they set the edge and cover to the sidelines is a separate issue, but this makes sense, because you don't want this underweight straight-line rookie trying to stand up right tackles or set the edge anyway.

It gets way deeper because, as I've said, nickels and dimes dominate the NFL today, and it's anybody's guess how Horton will handle that opponent-by-opponent, or where Nassib will fit.

Horton will use everything from one to five down linemen here, and in nickels and dimes Nassib is an unlikely edge player; an outside linebacker will do that.

Based on what Nunn said, they might get really unconventional with Nassib, and actually sometimes put him in the a-gaps.

Seriously, I've never heard this kind of talk before about a player like Nassib:

He does have a major reach advantage over guards and centers, and he is certainly a better athlete, but he's not very strong (yet), he'll find it hard to stay low, his first step is good but not great (like Cooper's), he'll be extra-vulnerable to cut-blocks, and...

Nah!  No they might use him as a gap-shooter/pass batter-downer sometimes inside, but I really just think Nunn meant that the left DE will attack the b-gap.

But then, Nunn knows slightly more than I do about this stuff, so if I'm wrong I'm wrong.

But that lde thing is important.  It means the left OLB stays outside and sets the edge more.

Having that DE attack the right guard makes it hard on an offense, because it means that right guard had better not pull, can't bother with Shelton or whoever else, and is overmatched by a much faster guy who will jolt him first with a head start.

But everything is a trade-off.  Offenses will run away from him, roll the quarterback right, dump off right...they'll have the right tackle jab his pads to unbalance him, then target the edge-player (maybe with a tight end chip or real block), aim a shifty running back between them a lot, etc.

Still, I like it.  Nassib or Bryant, with a running start, vs a right guard is a mismatch.  Shelton or whoever one-on-one vs a center bodes well too.

Yeah it's risky, but underlying it is that the offense has to do stuff it's not built to do to overcome it, and can't stop penetration.  It puts the right tackle out in space vs a superior athlete, pits a guard against a defensive end, gets the defensive end to the pocket, Nassib can tip or bat passes or claw at handoffs, they have to stay deep to get around him...

I picture a right tackle trying to nail Mingo or Ogbah in space.  I find that funny to think about.  Certain running backs coming behind them make that less funny, but like I said it's a trade-off, and one a defense should win more often than not.

If I'm right, opposing offenses will power run left and attack the right edge on the ground.  They will roll out more, and use more short passes inside.

I can't say it won't WORK, but in general offenses are built to run right, throw from a pocket, and not have right tackles in space.

I guess Nunn is analytical too.

Hope I'm not linking to another guy who ripped me off, but this is a good article on why Josh McCown should stick around.