Monday, February 1, 2016

Free Agency Wars: Browns Smell Blood

The Cleveland Browns are around 33.2 million over their salary cap.  The Saints, Bills, and Dolphins are in cap hell.  The Ravens, Patriots, and Steelers are less than five million under.

This is why the Ravens won't come roaring back any time soon.  The Wizard's wand is in the drawer, recharging.  Ozzie has no choice but to clean house, and zero in on the draft almost exclusively.  He hasn't renegotiated, extended, or re-signed players.  He will let most of his free agents test the market, and this time everybody over 25 who can walk will walk.

This is why those who persist in predicting that the Jackson-led Browns will finish last in the Division belong on the short bus.

If Sashi Brown succeeds in retaining his own unrestricted free agents, he could take his positive balance down, maybe to 21 million.  Consensus among the punditry says Alex Mack is gone, but putting Mitchell Schwartz and Gipson in the same boat is dumb.

Nor is Alex Mack a lost cause.  He has had a season-ending injury, and is thirty years old.  The biggest reason the Browns aren't currently 40 million under the cap now is that idiotic Dwayne Bowe contract, but after this season that money will come back.

Paying a center elite left tackle money isn't in the budget (I sure wish some of you fans were running the Bengals and Steelers), but Brown could offer Mack an extra year, with a good portion of that guaranteed, in order to compete with the dumbasses who will get ridiculous in the bidding war.

That aside, Brown will have a war chest to go raiding.

I went into vulture mode and looked things over.

Forget about most of the big names (like Von Miller).  Most of those players will be franchised or otherwise retained.  If I had a faster internet connection here, I'd inspect each of those teams to see who they're likely to lose in order to keep these studs, but as it is I'd still be working on that Wednesday.

Jason Pierre Paul is a possible, because of his missing fingers.  He has shown that he can still rush the passer, and he's still a freak athlete.  But he can't tackle as well, or fight for a turnover.  It's something every team considering him will have to think about, but this is one guy who shouldn't break the bank.

The Broncos are ten million under, and Von Miller all by himself will want that and more.  This makes DT Malik Jackson a potential target.  He's very good.

The Bucs are loaded with cash, but just drafted a running back high.  Doug Martin was a monster last season, and might be their Alex Mack.  Martin will get ridiculous offers from some teams.  Despite having all that spare cash lying around, the Bucs could let Martin go if the price gets too silly.

I consider it unlikely that the Browns would overpay him either, however.  But I had to mention it.

Inside linebacker Danny Trevathan is another Bronco that Von Miller could squeeze out (and by the way that's even if they franchise him).  

I saved the best and most likely guys for last: The Steelers left tackles, Adams and Beachum.  They probably can't afford both, and Beachum is considered undersized (6'3", 303 lbs).

He suffered a serious knee injury, and the younger/cheaper Villenueva improved steadily, and did a good job in his absence.

He will be looking for elite left tackle money, and of course to play that position.  But there are several left tackles in this draft, he is still pretty small, he was seriously injured, and he was replaced, so he doesn't have as much leverage as his agent is probably telling him he has.

Coming out of college, Beachum was physically weak, but quick and good in space.  He's of course stronger now, but remains much better suited to zone than man blocking, which is another thing teams will be pointing out in negotiations.

Here, he probably wouldn't even start, but he's just 26 and would back up Joe Thomas, and at guard.

That would be a tough sell for a guy who's been a starting left tackle for an elite team for a long time but...hmmm...could he play center?

If Beachum remains a Steeler, he'll fight to start at left guard.  The teams bidding for him know this, too.

Mike Adams is much lower hanging fruit.  He has a number of starts, but was inconsistent and replaced.  He is 6'7.5, 325 lbs.  He was drafted in 2012, making last season his third.

Scouts were divided about him in 2012.  Some saw him as a first round pick, while others called him overrated, and a guy who played well "when he feels like it".

So far, the latter group seems to be correct about him.  While he was considered by some a left tackle, he's probably a right tackle.  He can be effective in a zone scheme...when he feels like it.

He might be worth a super-cheap flyer.

The Cowboys are 8 million under their cap, and have several interesting free agents including CB Morris Claiborne and Greg Hardy.

The Seahawks are 19 mil plus, but have a ton of guys to sign, and some decent stuff will shake loose here.  DT Mebane is one.  Left tackle Russel Okung could be another.  Just in case the Browns were to hypothetically think about conceivably considering the possibility of trading Joe Thomas for draft picks...

Both their starting and backup centers are two more guys.  

6' tall cornerback Jeremy Lane is another guy.  He has been injured, and won't command a huge salary.

I must mention this before I end this article: I read an article in which one paragraph packed in enough stupidity to fill a novel:

Drafting a quarterback will mean Josh McCown's release.  Alex Mack, Mitchell Schwartz, and Joe Thomas are as good as gone.  The Browns will pick Goff or Lynch second overall.

Wow.










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