Friday, November 27, 2015

Cleveland Browns: Comments on Comments

This Article on ESPN.com gives a Black Friday shopping list for the Browns.  Then it lists wins.

Two of the three listed items are already here.  In fairness, the article did stipulate that the big receiver not get suspended, so I guess they want somebody less vulnerable than Gordon, and I get that.

But the quarterback part amounts to McCown-bashing.  A quarterback with these receivers, this running game, and this defense can't be blamed for throwing for 400 yards twice and losing.

Verily, he got beat down, so I guess you could reference injuries, but what quarterback in the NFL could take that kind of abuse longer than he did?

Verily, he must be replaced, because of his age.  He's at last emerged as an elite quarterback, only too late in his career.  He's a bridge to the future.

But Manziel's book isn't closed yet.  This was a political setback, but he's never been suspended, and just toasted the Steelers for over 350 net yards in Pittsburgh.

All the same, if a franchise guy is there when they draft, they'll have to take him.

That's not the only way to find your stud (or at least insurance) either.

Ask Pat Kirwan: In today's NFL, each year there are two to four younger guys who have ridden the bench for 2 or more seasons, and are ready to start.

Tyrod Taylor is the best current example.  Many of us will remember Kelly Holcomb.

These are guys who had talent, but were flawed in various ways coming out of college.  NFL coaches and the quarterbacks they understudied, along with thousands of scout-team, pre-season, and garbage-time reps have ironed the kinks.

Pat McManomon does a Les Levine reciting Johnny's overall statistics to make him sound ordinary, but again: For a guy with his five games worth of experience, the first two shouldn't count at all, and his most recent start should count double.

This even applies to the massively more experienced Josh McCown.

To this day, I still hear people talking about his horrific season last year and his career statistics.

Even for this guy, his starts this season, with this team, most accurately reflect how good he is right now, doesn't it?  

Maybe Marty wasn't being a blockhead when he said "statistics are for losers".  Maybe this is what he meant.

As a real analyst, I find the majority of analyses I read shallow and devoid of context.  

For Johnny, stats have to be weighted as I described.  For an old-timer like McCown, you throw out all but his last three seasons before you crunch any numbers.

Then for both, you must consider the supporting casts they had, and seek the broadest trends you can as the most reliable indicator of probability and measure of---

Never mind.  But you can't just take a big shovel and put it all in a blender and serve up whatever comes out!  

Yeah, Pat, go ahead and give me the stats on Elway, either Manning, Big Ben, Aikman, Young etc. after five freaking starts give me a break.

Richard Pietro does his own somewhat more abstract analysis.  He suggests that Johnny should be released, and that the spectre of his emerging as a star with another team is "beside the point".

Richard fills in a lot of blanks.  Mike Pettine's reluctance to start him must mean that he wasn't good enough.

He cites old reports on his partying and lack of film study in college.  He attacks the word "partying" as taking too lightly the dire and profound implications of addiction (see my last blog please just stop it Rich!)

Here again, Johnny has been doing his homework this season.

This guy obviously missed all his plays this season, because he describes a player identical to the one we saw last season.

Another part of analysis is to see what is in front of you clearly, without either rose or shit-colored glasses on.

A few blogs ago, I talked about how Johnnybashers seized like epileptics onto his second half vs Cincinnati, and immediately threw out all the improvement he'd shown to that point.

Then he tore the Steelers a new one, see?  

Ask the players, including the "sources in the locker room" speaking in confidence:

They don't care much about a party during the off week.  Many of them did the same.  All they care about is whether or not he does his homework and is serious NOW.

There is no division here, and no need to release one very talented quarterback (and start over yet again) just to make uptight people like this writer happy.

But if this guy was here now and I could afford it, I'd buy him a nice glass of chardonnay and discuss it with him.

In this one from Fansided, Rodney Stokes bemoans Johnny's misbehavior too. Rodney is actually pretty fair overall, but says he was in College Station two weeks prior partying.  I know he was there, but the partying part is an assumption.  Not that I'd care.

Rodney thinks he should remain locked in Berea til the season is over, period.

I'm sure Josh McCown visits his family or even his alma mater now and then.  But nobody notices.

Like many others, this writer sees dire consequences and a road to hell.

Rodney is a younger guy, though.  He was raised politically correct, so I can't pick on him.

In general, Browns fans get extreme.  Sweeping generalizations.  Kill em all and let God sort em out!  Cut him!  Fire him! Worst EVER!  

It bugs me.  One of my own brothers is like that.  

It's the losing, of course.  Read my blogs.  I said 7-9 at worst!  Tony Grossi wasn't much different.

I remember: Top five defense, I predicted! Dominating run game, adequate passing game.

It's THEM, you know?  THEY read that, and made sure each and everything I said was wrong.

I have to apologize to Browns fans, as I apologize to other victims of the last two market crashes.  You and the Browns are all collateral damage.  THEY always do anything it takes to stick it to me.

But I digress: I know Ray Farmer has done a couple dumb things, but he's done more smart things on-balance, and the jury is out on ALL of his draft picks, the oldest of which are second year players.

The talent of most of his free agents is proven.  The guys he extended or did not release are all good players.

I can't say the same of the coaches.  I've gathered from former players and Head Coaches that these problems are more schematic than talent-related.

I'm not qualified to express an opinion here, but this is what a real analyst does, you see?

I do express opinions, sort of.  But not until I hear from various more expert and inside sources that I've learned to trust.  

For example: The Buffalo Bills' defense is much better since it's bye week than before.  Ryan simplified it.  The players love it.  Pettine runs the same general system.  The same solution might apply.  So I'm waiting to see if Mike Pettine is as adaptable as Rex Ryan, see?

I want Mike to succeed.  He's really smart.  Continuity is almost critical.  Farmer is an easy scapegoat, and his removal wouldn't cause anywhere near the disruption, but if Mike goes, it's more chaos.

So I'm rooting for him.  As an emotionally detached analyst immune to his likeability and obvious brains.

DeFilipo too.  He has to have had a lot to do with making Josh McCown and Johnny M look like Carson Palmer with this crew.

Still, where did the running game go?  Here again, I must repeat myself: Same offensive line.  Same lead back. I heard from not only Doug Dieken, but others, so I express the opinion: The changes you made haven't worked.  Go back to what did.  Don't get proud, or you'll get fired, Flip.

One reason big receivers are so popular is their ability to block.  A good analyst doesn't ignore this.

The Browns' offensive challenges this season (as I've heard from Dieken et al as well) relate to this:

Gary Barnidge is a so-so blocker, but has emerged as such a formidable receiver that they have to use him, and split him out a lot.  Jim Dray is left in the dust, and I know from ProFootballFocus that he's just a so-so blocker himself (ps in-line and in space are different).  The Browns have no true in-line blocking tight end, which is one reason they've used Cam Erving that way so often.

Calls for more Duke Johnson ignore the fact that, at this point, his appearance on the field triggers a blitze unless he moves to the slot.  Defenses run-blitze to neutralize him.

It's not as simple as many think.  Tony Grossi, to his credit, groks this, because he's wondered in print if Duke might be more effective as a slot receiver.

Bowe and Hartline are the only big receivers here, and Hartline is skinny.  All the Browns primary wide receivers are microbes.  They lack both bulk and reach.  The cornerbacks they face have edges on them, let alone safeties, and sending them after linebackers is suicidal.

Here is a personal opinion.  This is just me, ok?  The Browns almost always run left.  Even when a run starts out to the strong side, by design it cuts left almost immediately.

That's why defenses shoot gaps to Mack's left.  They know where any run will go, and if it's not a run they're on the quarterback anyway.

This is inexcusable to me.  Flip, try running RIGHT sometimes, ok dammit?

I don't need the experts for this opinion.  If I saw it, defensive coordinators saw it several games before I did, and came up with the perfect solution like I did that much sooner too.

Drives me nuts.  I'm clueless and I outsmarted the Browns offense...

Say, Mike.  I could use a job.  I can spell my name right and everything!




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