Predictive Analysis

Now that Deflategate Radio is morphing into Adrian Peterson Radio, I can endure listening to it a little again.

I listened to Pat Kirwan and Jim Miller rank the AFC North's defensive lines in order to see how Pat would rationalize ranking the Steelers' defensive line first and the Browns' last, and what Jim would say about it.

I might have misheard this, but I think Pat might have ranked the Ravens above the Steelers.  No biggee though.  He leans almost as hard on the Ravens as the Steelers.

Anyway, Pat summed up the predictable basement ranking for the Browns' defensive line by saying you can't rank dead last vs. the run and expect not to rank last.

In the cases of Pat's two favorites, his ranking was partly based on history, and partly on projection.  Especially since the Ravens just said good bye to Ngata.

I can't bash the other defensive lines in the Division.  They're pretty good.

But the Browns just added Danny Shelton, Randy Starks, and Xavier Cooper.  Why isn't Pat inter-ested in projections here?

Three of the reasons the Browns were so bad against the run last season were the losses of Phil Taylor, John Hughes, and Ish...shy Kitchen to injury, and they're back now.  So we're not talking about three new players, but really six.

For that matter, Billy Winn was dinged and dented too.

It's not that none of this matters to Pat.  It's just that he doesn't want to bother thinking about it.  Perhaps in an effort to appease the unwashed Cleveland masses, he mentioned Shelton while stifling a yawn.

Well, Danny Shelton will be one third of the base defensive line.

Everything here was predictable, except perhaps for Jim Miller agreeing with everything he said.

I can't bash the defensive lines of these other teams.  They'll be damn tough.  But oh, just give me a break here.

When healthy, Phil Taylor wreaks havoc.  Danny Shelton was regarded as a can't-miss superstud.  And anybody who looks at the six players I mentioned objectively has to expect a dramatic improvement in the Browns' run defense.  It's glaringly obvious!  Why do these guys act like such projections are on a par with expecting Manziel to start game one?

I'm weary of the "not enough sacks" stuff, too.  Teams knew they could run the ball, and did.  They built leads, then ran to protect them.  The defense was in second and third and shorts all day, and couldn't attack.

The pressure the defensive line did help generate contributed to what they did to opposing quarterbacks (oh yeah--teams also ran a lot because they couldn't pass.)

But it's easier to ignore pressure and a six-player upgrade when you're going to rank this defensive line in the basement anyway.

Good grief.  Welcome to Cleveland.