Friday, May 29, 2015

Predictive Analysis

Now that Deflategate Radio is morphing into Adrian Peterson Radio, I can endure listening to it a little again.

I listened to Pat Kirwan and Jim Miller rank the AFC North's defensive lines in order to see how Pat would rationalize ranking the Steelers' defensive line first and the Browns' last, and what Jim would say about it.

I might have misheard this, but I think Pat might have ranked the Ravens above the Steelers.  No biggee though.  He leans almost as hard on the Ravens as the Steelers.

Anyway, Pat summed up the predictable basement ranking for the Browns' defensive line by saying you can't rank dead last vs. the run and expect not to rank last.

In the cases of Pat's two favorites, his ranking was partly based on history, and partly on projection.  Especially since the Ravens just said good bye to Ngata.

I can't bash the other defensive lines in the Division.  They're pretty good.

But the Browns just added Danny Shelton, Randy Starks, and Xavier Cooper.  Why isn't Pat inter-ested in projections here?

Three of the reasons the Browns were so bad against the run last season were the losses of Phil Taylor, John Hughes, and Ish...shy Kitchen to injury, and they're back now.  So we're not talking about three new players, but really six.

For that matter, Billy Winn was dinged and dented too.

It's not that none of this matters to Pat.  It's just that he doesn't want to bother thinking about it.  Perhaps in an effort to appease the unwashed Cleveland masses, he mentioned Shelton while stifling a yawn.

Well, Danny Shelton will be one third of the base defensive line.

Everything here was predictable, except perhaps for Jim Miller agreeing with everything he said.

I can't bash the defensive lines of these other teams.  They'll be damn tough.  But oh, just give me a break here.

When healthy, Phil Taylor wreaks havoc.  Danny Shelton was regarded as a can't-miss superstud.  And anybody who looks at the six players I mentioned objectively has to expect a dramatic improvement in the Browns' run defense.  It's glaringly obvious!  Why do these guys act like such projections are on a par with expecting Manziel to start game one?

I'm weary of the "not enough sacks" stuff, too.  Teams knew they could run the ball, and did.  They built leads, then ran to protect them.  The defense was in second and third and shorts all day, and couldn't attack.

The pressure the defensive line did help generate contributed to what they did to opposing quarterbacks (oh yeah--teams also ran a lot because they couldn't pass.)

But it's easier to ignore pressure and a six-player upgrade when you're going to rank this defensive line in the basement anyway.

Good grief.  Welcome to Cleveland.




Monday, May 25, 2015

Mike and Ray Should Be Optimistic

The Browns' tough schedule in games four through ten has given permabashers and victims of Stockholm Syndrome alike massive trepidation, when that combines with Josh McCown.

The permabashers just love being dark clouds and are hopeless.  But many Browns fans even in my circle are victims of Stockholm Syndrome.

In this case, Stockholm Syndrome means that they've about given up on escape from the Factory of Sadness, and are reconciled to perpetual losing.

Some writers turn themselves into logical pretzels in order to dig up more doom and gloom.

One guy writes about Manziel's prospects, and when his first start might be.  He cites the first three games, and thinks McCown can win those.  Then he talks about the next seven--all teams with formidable defenses.  He expects McCown to lose all of those.

Right here is his first logical mistake: He pits McCown, all by himself, against these defenses.  He ignores the Browns own defense and the running game--among other things.

The guy goes on to predict a top-ten defense.  He stipulates a dominant offensive line and backfield.  He even grudgingly admits that the wide recievers don't suck.

But he just said that McCown will lose seven games.  Wow.

In this more positive article, Browns.com's Kevin Jones lists eleven numbers Browns' fans should know:

One is 7: The number of games in which Isaiah Crowell averaged at least 4.9 yards per carry.

Another is 59: The number pf players with under three years experience on this roster.

6: The number of games in which Taylor Gabriel had at least one play of over 39 yards.

324: Interception return yards by Gipson since 2012.

36: The number of passes Manziel has thrown in his short career.

1: The ranking of the Browns 2014 defense in opponent completion percentage, passer rating, and passes defensed.

Joe Haden has a ton of passes defensed in his career too, but I didn't include that.

In this other (longer and less interesting) article by Kevin, Craig Robertson talks about a different mindset on the defense.

Indeed, the Browns have just added three more run-stoppers to go with the returns to health of Hughes and Taylor.  I should mention that most of these guys can also rush the passer, and make it even harder on opposing quarterbacks.

Robertson also enjoys the fact that, for the first time, he gets to open a second season in the same defensive system.  That helps a LOT.

Another Permabasher article quotes Ernie Accorsi as saying that yes, a team can win with a journeyman quarterback, but it has to be exceptional in some other area.  The article goes on to point to some admittedly dent-proof stats about where all the top-ranked quarterbacks finished the last few seasons.

It's true.  That's why I never said that the Browns would go to the Superbowl or even win a playoff game in 2015.  Not since Trent Dilfer took the Ravens to the Superbowl has a non-elite quarterback led a team that far.

Pretty damning, except that this defense and running game are being written off, as compared to the Olympian, godlike Ravens defense and running game.

After all, Crowell only averaged 4.1 yards per carry, and all they added to their offensive line was just merely Cam Erving and that guy from Seattle.  And the defense, though incredibly tough against the pass, was a seive vs the run, and they've only added the best nose tackle in the draft, two more defensive linemen, and only John Hughes and Phil Taylor are back from injuries, so what hope is there?

I'm sorry, but there is something wrong with you if you can't see the positive changes here, or if you think that this defense can't be as good as the Ravens Superbowl defense.

Pettine was on that staff, by the way.

And what about Manziel?  Quit saying all the positive reports are "just talk".  We all know that, and you aint Yoda.  

Roger Staubach said he can do everything Russell Wilson does, and I agree.  It remains a big question mark, though.  It's a matter of how quickly he can think when he has a read-order and a clock in his head.  And then if he does have the mental hardware for that, how long it will take him to be ready.

For that matter, what about Connor Shaw?  He has everything but the arm.  So did Joe Montana, and this is the same offensive system.

And again (repeating myself warning), McCown wins with good teams and loses with crappy teams.  And while you were sleeping, the Cleveland Browns became a good team.

Sunday, May 24, 2015

Cleveland Browns Have a Spare Running Back...

Ring...Ring...

This is Ray Farmer.

Ray?  This is Jerry.

Jerry who?

Very funny.  I'm calling to talk about Isaiah Crowell.

Okay, we can talk about West.  

...Okay if that's how it is...well I'm ready to give you a fourth roun CLICK.

Ring...Ring...Ring...Ring...Ring...Ring

This is Ray Farmer.

Okay Ray, what do you want for Crowell?

Not sure I want anything for Terrence West.  I like him a lot.  He's a total-package bigger back, just now mastering the blocking and recieving parts.  Not looking bad even in the slot right now.

What about Crowell?

Who?

...Okay then.  But you have Johnson and Crowell now, and that other guy Glenn Winston you like so much.  You need to get rid of somebody.

No I don't.  Those guys just exactly fill out the position group.  But I know you're hurting for a running back, so--

Who told you that?  We're all set there!  We just need a little depth, is all--

I think I'm going into a bad area here, might lose your signal...

Okay okay.  What will it take?  I can't give you a first or a second.  We're getting old--I'll need those picks.

That's a problem.  I know you're going to win a lot of games with what you've got, so your picks will all be low ones.  You've even got a shot to go all the way.  By the way, you really need to get that done now--how old is Tony Romo, again?
You just need a little help here and there, at certain positions...

Well okay, I know West is pretty good, but not that good.

First round pick, Jerry.

Can't do that.

I'm happy to keep him then.

God, you're killin' me Ray!  

I don't think so.  He's cheap and you've got him locked up for awhile.  He's young, but he's got good experience, and he's taken the rough edges off--knows what he's doing and ready to go.  And he's about the only missing piece you've got.

You're almost there, Jerry.  You're loaded.  Except for that running back.  Are you going to get yourself a Superbowl drafting 26th or 28th?

Let me think about it.

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Cleveland Browns: Miscellaneous

1: I don't consider it news that Johnny Manziel will be a full participant in OTAs.  Why wouldn't he be?  What, would he be in a padded cell or something?  C'mon, man!

2: I doubt that the Browns will only carry four recievers on the active roster.  It does look like a two-tight end base offense, but Malcomb Johnson (see 5) saves a roster spot.  Johnson, three tight ends, three running backs, and they don't necessarily need nine offensive linemen.  

Duke Johnson might save another spot by returning kicks.

Offensive scheme is one thing, but the overriding factor is that they want the best players to play.

3:  One of these is Taylor Gabriel.  Why isn't it understood that he was a rookie last season, and hasn't even started to rock yet?  Between him and Hawkins, they have to find ways to use little guys who make things happen after the catch--in this West Coast scheme!  Plus, Gabriel can return punts.

4:  I'm not that excited about what Trabor said about Travis Benjamin.  They probably want to trade him if they can.

5: Malcomb Johnson is a big secret weapon as a reciever.  He is accomplished at it, and may well force the coaches to use him a lot.  In a West Coast, a reciever is a reciever.  They'll probably keep him off the line so that he can't get jammed.  Like the other Johnson, he's a monkey-wrench.  Defenses hate monkey-wrenches.
The big bonus here is that it doesn't need to get fancy.  He can lead-block--but the defense won't be able to key him.

6: After some more research, I've decided to tell Mike Pettine to use Crowell and Johnson, and combine the Johnsons a lot.  Mike hasn't replied to me yet.  I'll let you know.

Saturday, May 16, 2015

Celvleamd Browns, According to "League Sources"...

When there's nothing going on, some people just make stuff up.  Whenever somebody says "according to league sources", you need to substitute these words: "I either made this up, or heard it expressed as an opinion on the radio by somebody having some relationship with the NFL."

According to league sources, Mike Pettine was all set to get rid of Johnny Manziel, but Ray Farmer and Jimmy Haslam want to "keep giving him chances".

Predictably, the article implies dysfunction and internal strife within the organization.  After all, no two people can disagree without somebody getting voted off the island, can they?

I can't claim to know what thoughts Mike Pettine keeps hidden from us, but I can tell you this: He's not shy.

He's also logical and sane, so cutting Johnny Manziel after his rookie season never entered his mind.  He won't push for that until he's certain that the kid is a bust--and nobody can say that after his limited body of work as a rookie.

He has "moved on" from Manziel to the extent that he named Josh McCown as the nominal starter.  That was a smart move, since it took pressure off Manziel and put the ball in experienced hands.  I agree with the coaches that McCown, with this supporting cast, will do just fine for now.

Blunt Force Trauma has said what he meant about that--quite clearly, as usual.  How you can "read into" anything Mike Pettine says is beyond me.  It's an act of desperation for muckrakers.

No, he never would have said in public "I want him outta here!" if that's how he felt, but no rational person could have felt that way (yet).  Remember all the speculation about Josh Gordon being released after getting suspended for a year...for a few drinks on a plane (still can't believe that)?

WHY? So he can come back with the Bengals and avenge himself in 2016?  When he costs nothing to keep?  Jeez!

Of course, Johnny is on a short leash.  Had he not gone to rehab, or at least calmed himself down and got busy with the playbook and his coaches, then Mike would be fed up with the kid.  But for a few weeks now, Johnny has been doing all the right things


That's why Mike refused to rule Johnny out as the opening day starter.  Most likely, he doubts that Manziel can make the leap from a back yard offense to a pro one, set up by a new offensive coordinator, by then.  So am I.

But Pettine made it clear that the door is open on opening day, let alone game four, eight, or twelve of the season.

In this blog by Bryant Lucas, the writer is shockingly objective about what to expect from Manziel this season.  Bryant seems to be one of the few who are aware that he has a strong arm, and is very intelligent.

But then he went off the rails, saying that his scrambling won't work in the NFL, and that if he tried, he'd get hurt.

Johnny is two inches taller than Seattle's Russell Wilson, and Wilson scrambles a whole lot.  It's part of the offense they built around the guy.  There's no reason to assume that Johnny can't do what Wilson does, as long as he protects himself the way Wilson does.  Roger Staubach agrees.

But the rest of this blog entry was excellent.

Back to Mike Pettine:  I love how Mike Pettine is growing as a head coach.  When he came here, he stuck to his expertise, which was defense, and left the offense to Kyle Shanahan.

Now that he's got a good defense, and his new coordinator has his feet wet, he's taking a crash course on offense, complete with flash cards.

Pett is going about becoming a great head coach systematically.  He knows he has to learn more about offense to really know what's going on .

But he's not a control-freak.  He does feel the need to have a voice in everything that happens (since his job depends on it), but he's letting DeFelippo set things up, and just making suggestions (again I take this man at his word).

This not only helps Mike Pettine, but will help the offense.  Every time he sees an offensive play, he automatically thinks about how his defense would try to stop it.

He's really good at that, and this is what he's talking about when he says "suggestions":  "What if this guy does this and that guy does that?"  I'll bet you the first-time coordinator is learning more from Mike Pettine than Mike is learning from him.

Ibraheim Campbell corrections:  Again, everybody but Ray, Mike, and I seem to have completely ignored the Senior Bowl.  All week, Campbell practiced extensively in coverage, and made a huge impression with interceptions and deflections.  Then he clocked a 4.5 40.

"Lacks second gear in coverage".  That's just plain wrong.  What this comment means is that if a guy gets a step on him, he can't turn on the jets and catch back up.  In reality, this is one of Campbell's strongest assets.

He was used primarily as an in-the-box strong safety, and no doubt this is what he does best.  He does have weaknesses in coverage, but these have more to do with his backpedal and hips than speed.

Here is Donte Whitner's scouting report.  In it, his negatives include lack of size, so forget about that part: Campbell is a brute.  But the other knocks on him are about the same as those against Campbell.

Whitner became a Pro Bowler.  So can Campbell.

Saved for last:  Current standards of personal conduct are insane in general, and acutely so in the NFL.  And the term "addiction" is even more abused than the made-up word "utilize".

THINK for one minute.  Josh Gordon is addicted to marijuana?  Oh, puh-leez!  I grew up in the sixties.  I was a "pot-head", surrounded by other pot-heads.  You can't get addicted to pot!  You can crave it, but quit it more easily than quitting coffee.

Dude, I've been everywhere.  Coke, mescaline, acid, qualudes, and (always, all along) beer.  And let me tell you something: Josh Gordon should be just fine.  He's not addicted to anything.

And Johnny Manziel might never have even been a real alchoholic!  He might have entered rehab for PR!  The only real addiction I can talk about with him is to attention.

I hear these well-intentioned people talking about Johnny/Josh "saving their lives" and laugh.  Even the guys who say it (Warren Sapp for one) KNOW it's a joke, and are playing to the crowd.

They're kids.  What did you do when you were a kid--even not growing up in the sixties?  

This crap has become rediculous in society in general, and downright insane in the NFL.

THINK.  Don't be a sheep.  Rediculous is rediculous.

This just in: Andrea Hangst is starting to grow on me.  She projects the probable starters this season, and I'm impressed by how she backs up her opinions.  For example, she points out that Mitchell Schwartze is Pro Football Focus's 33rd-ranked tackle.

And yes, this means I'm wrong in calling him above average.  He's 33rd out of 64.

She also points out that John Greco ranked 8th among 64 guards, which is why she expects him to remain the starter, and for Cam Erving to take over right tackle for Schwartze.

I initially scoffed at her wide reciever projections, as she sees Andrew Hawkins and Taylor Gabriel (with Dwayne Bowe) ahead of Brian Hartline.

I love those two guys, but remain kind of skeptical, because they're both vertically-challenged small targets.  On any vertical route, even between the hash-marks, sometimes even pinpoint touch-passes don't work.

I saw this too often last season, as Hawk or Gabriel had a step on a guy.  A quarterback can only put so much air under a ball, and that cornerback chasing the little recievers was just in the way.

But then, this will be more of a West Coast scheme than we've ever had here, and that means a lot of slants and crosses.  These little guys running horizontally and short/intermediate offer a clear target, so Andrea might well have nailed it.

Indeed, their best assets are their speed and explosiveness--they can create good separation consistently, which Hartline can't.

She goes to Football Focus once more to rate Barnidge ahead of Dray based on his better blocking scores, and I once more stand corrected (if these stats are as important as I think they are).

I can't agree that any of the DT/DE's will rotate with Shelton.  Shelton can play DT (was impressive there at the Senior Bowl), but on this team there's no reason for him to wear himself out there.  Nor are any of the DE/DT's much use at nose tackle.

I have a more minor issue at inside linebacker.  Carlos Dansby is getting up there, and I believe they'll take some snaps off him to keep him fresh and healthy.

Finally, here's a good article from Zach Rainey on Isportsweb.  His logic is pretty good, but then he falls into this Soap Opera bullcrap about Manziel being "forced on" Mike Pettine, internal drama blah-blah-blah.

I personally doubt that Mike Pettine was all-in with drafting Manziel, and may have been overridden.  But I do think that if he'd been adamant, the pick wouldn't have been made.

And again, it was desperation, and not pressure from above, that forced Mike to start Johnny Manziel instead of the atrocious (sorry) Brian Hoyer.


Good article up til the fence-post gossip, though.






Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Grading the Browns' Draft

These grades are weighted by round.  You expect more from a first round pick than you do from a sixth round pick:

Both the first round picks were F-minusses.  This was just atrocious.

And they traded UP for Trent Richardson!

What?  You thought I was grading this draft?  Do I look like an egomaniacal jackass (oh yeah you can't see me nevermind).

In 2012, I was pretty clueless.  I thought Tannehill was a much better prospect than Weeden, but was on-board with the Trent Richardson pick.  But as time passed, I got smarter and smarter, until today I feel smart enough to grade that draft.

Obviously, TRich was a huge bust, and kudos to Farmer for salvaging a first round pick out of him (and ignoring all the caterwalling at the time).

Both these picks are F-minuses--nay, they were G's.

In the second round, 37th overall, they took Mitchell Schwartze.  Got to give this one a C.  Guards and right tackles slide in drafts, and you can get really good ones in the second or third round.

Schwartze, as I've said, is above average, but nothing special.  If you are a kneejerk Schwartze-basher, you think C is generous.  Thank God I'm doing the grading.

In the third round it was John Hughes.  Got to give that one a C-minus.  Hughes is a solid DT and a run-stopper, but not well-suited to a 3-4 defense.  Better players were available, and I do still think Hughes would have fallen to them in the fourth.

I'll upgrade that to a C, however, since he is still with the team, and just got extended.

In the 4th round, it was Travis Benjamin.  This was a B.  Remember, it's the fourth round?  Benjamin has a crappy season as a returner last year, but has developed into a pretty good wide reciever, and prior to that was a really good returner.

Unfortunately for him, Hawk and an undrafted guy are better than him, and he's probably hitting the dusty trail.  But he'll get scooped up, and he'll play football somewhere.

Then it was linebacker James Micheal-Johnson.  At that point in the fourth round, inside linebacker is one of those positions: You can find good ones there.

From what I read in Wikepedia, James is out of the NFL.  D.

In the fifth, it was guard/tackle Ryan Miller.  That's a C, because Miller is still in the NFL (lately with the Chargers), and this is the low fifth round.

6th round linebacker Emmanuel Acho is a pretty good player and a starter, so that one has to be an A down this low.

Billy Winn in the 6th is an A-plus.

In the 7th, it was DB Trevin Wade. I don't know about his current status, but the latest Wikepedia entry had him being waived by the Saints at the end of the 2014 season.  B (it's the seventh round, for cryin out loud!)

Fullback Brad Smelley is with the Rams.  Another B.  Any seventh rounder who sticks around the NFL this long was a good pick.

Because of the horror of the first round, the overall grade for this draft has to be a D-plus.  

Of course, except for Winn, Hughes, Benjamin, and Schwartze, this has nothing whatsoever to do with the current regime, and it's idiotic to use it as ammo to bash Ray Farmer with.

My grade for this year's draft is pending.  I expect to have it ready in 2018.


Dumb Stuff Ray Farmer Can't Worry About and Deep Stuff He Does

Walter Football has predicted that the Browns will take Cardale Jones next season with the third overall draft pick.  I found this reference in this article on HNGN.  

There's nothing wrong with guessing that the Browns will again be in the market for a franchise quarterback, and I liked that Connor Cook was mentioned as another possibility.

I'm feeling better about Johnny Manziel myself, partly because the positive reviews are coming from his teammates as well as coaches.  But he still has a lot of questions to answer.

It's the notion that this team will draft third overall that's really, really dumb.

This team is loaded with talent, and most of it is low in it's growth-curve.  Some will debate about outside linebacker (passrusher), tight end, and wide reciever, but unless you're out of your damn mind you've got to accept that everything else is covered.

I must repeat myself about the other guys: Bowe and Hartline are pretty good, and a stud number one is desirable, but not mandatory.  Further, both probable slot recievers (I believe Benjamin will leave) are p l a y m a k e r s.

I can't expect others to expect Housler to show that he's much more than his prior stats indicate, but laugh at me now but believe me later.

And there are a BUNCH of guys, including NCAA sack-leader Nate Orchard, who will be competing with eachother to win the role opposite Paul Kruger.

Further, the much-improved defensive line will create more second and third and long situations in which the Browns can use that pass-rush.

You might not be able to count on Johnny Manziel, but Josh McCown, throughout his career, has won with a strong supporting cast, just as he's lost without one.  He has that strong supporting cast here, so he'll win here.

The offensive scheme is a factor here.  We haven't seen a traditional West Coast offense in Cleveland, even with Kyle Shanahan.  Josh McCown has run this scheme and is well suited to it.  So are Bowe, Hartline, and the slot guys.

DeFelippo's planned use of the running backs as recievers (and the addition of Duke Johnson) will help any quarterback immensely.

And to make this much, much simpler, if Brian Hoyer won seven games with last year's team, how can any rational person believe that McCown will do worse with this year's?
Home-town bias aside, they're pretty much interchangeable.

On the business side, Mitchell Schwartze's contract expires after this season.  This makes it more likely that he will be replaced as the starter at right tackle.  This will deprive him of leverage in negotiations.

Ray will want to re-sign him because he's still young, doesn't suck (in reality), and has position flexability.  Of course, it might not work, since Schwartze will still get some nice offers, and can start somewhere else.

The most likely guy to replace him is Cam Erving.  Micheal Bowie isn't as effective in pass protection.  By the way, this would make four of the five OL starters first and second-round picks (any of this sinking in yet?)

Phil Taylor's injuries undermine his trade value, but he's really good when healthy.  However it's just possible he'll be released.  The sheer number of defensive linemen will force some cuts.

The unheralded Ishmael Kitchen, who himself was injured last season, is a true nose tackle, and is more durable and cheaper.  He stays in his lane and makes messes.

Desir may well spend some time at safety.

Gilbert has a very good chance of winning the starting cornerback slot opposite Joe Haden.  Gilbert is a cornerback--not a quarterback.  Some of you appear confused about this.

And this is mainly a press/man system.  It's not rocket science.  Gilbert's tools are exceptional, and in year two he can take it if he means business (which it sounds like he does).

Barkevious Mingo should be a much more effective passrusher now that he's healthy, but still won't always be used that way.  None of the other OLB's can cover like him.

There will probably be a lot of rotation among the OLB's, so if Mingo gets 5-6 sacks, that will be pretty good, because he might have some deflections and interceptions too.


Sunday, May 10, 2015

Lindy Infante is Alive and Well and Living in DeFellipo

I'm an old guy, so I remember the 80s, when Lindy Infante was the Browns offensive coordinator.  In point-of-fact, Infante pre-dated Bill Walsh's West Coast 49ers, and introduced much of what Walsh made famous.  But, you know...he coached in Cleveland, so...

Anyway, Infante had a short quarterback with a pop-gun arm named Brian Sipe, and a series of really good running backs.  I can't remember the exact time-span (and am too lazy to check), but if I'm right these included the Pruitts and Mack/Byner.

Lindy helped Sipe succeed by giving him more protection, a lot of second and third and shorts, and more targets.

Sipe threw to the running backs a LOT.  Most of these were flat-passes and dump-offs: Infante himself described them as "long handoffs".  (Greg Pruitt was a burner, so he went downfield more, sometimes from the slot.)

Unlike with most teams, these were often designed plays--not check-downs.  However, the standard m.o. was that a back looked for leakage to block, and if he saw none, he peeled out for a pass.

Infante also had Ozzie Newsome at tight end.  The various wide recievers weren't superstars by any means.  Reggie Rucker was released by the Dallas Cowboys and scooped up as a free agent.  Dave Logan was a very tall former basketball player who could come down with Sipe's high, arcing "deep" passes.

Some of this should be sounding familiar to you.

There's no Ozzie Newsome here, but I insist: Rob Housler may well be a sleeper.  To remind you, he was injured early in his carreer, and Bruce Arians has little use for a pass-catching tight end in his offensive system.

Wide reciever is similar, except that Hawkins and Gabriel are blistering fast playmakers from the slot.  It's not at all true that this offense has no playmakers.  They don't have a stud number one wide reciever, but they do have speed, ok?  Please try to remember this.

Duke Johnson isn't exactly Greg Pruitt, but close enough.  He's not as fast, nor quite as explosive, but he's thicker and stronger.  He will do the same things in this offense that Pruitt did for Sipe and Lindy.

And by the way: there's another playmaker, ok?  Get it?

In this PD article, Flip talks about trying Crowell and West from the slot, as well.  That part is different than Infante's, and is interesting.

Many safeties could cover them, but they're too fast for most linebackers.  I believe this deployment is partly a decoy, however, intended to pull run-defenders outside the box, and possibly to prevent blitzes.

The common thread remains: DeFellipo doesn't want defenses to have a clue or a key, and wants to dictate defensive personnel to force favorable matchups.

A defensive coordinator seeing two backs and one tight end in the huddle will usually have to use his base defense (call it 3-4 or 4-3).

When one of the backs goes to the slot instead of remaining in the backfield, one of the guys who normally stacks the box has to move outside to cover him.

If it's Duke Johnson or, for that matter, Malcom Johnson, this could be a problem for them.

I say Malcom Johnson because the defense will be reluctant to put a safety on him--it needs to be a linebacker.  If it's a run, Johnson will block him.  He could also go in motion, letting the quarterback see who goes with him, or if they're using zone--and he's now a potential lead-blocker with a head start.

The West/Crowell part, I don't know about.  They're really not built that way, and my guess would be that putting them in the slot is sort of a "change-up" Flip plans to use from time-to-time, and not as a staple.

Those guys, however, will be scary with a flat or dumpoff pass in their hands, and here we return to Infante's logic:

The defensive line and some of the linebackers are engaged or committed shortly after the snap, and the congestion is inside.  One guy might mirror the running back as he peels out, but he can't attack him for fear the pass will go over his head.

There's space between them, so that when the pass is thrown, the running back will usually have the ball and a few steps before the mirror has to try to take him down in space.

The guys inside have to see the dumpoff, then get off their blocks to try to beat him to the edge.  They'll often over-commit, and the running back will cut back on them, too--scraping his mirror off.

Infante would tell you, this is how he got the ball to running backs in space, with open field in front of them.  More often than not, Earnest Byner would be at least two yards upfield before the first would-be tackler even got near him.

The defensive linemen were non-factors, the linebackers lost in traffic (and sealed out by design), and once the back is out of their range, only little people can try to tackle him.

All of this will make it hard for defenses to preplan anything, and sometimes make them hesitant.

Flip said that he'd run the ball a lot, and I believe he should.  But the stats might not reflect it, since those "long handoffs" are recorded as passes.

Saturday, May 9, 2015

Mike Pettine, Jim O'Neil, John De Felippo not Bullshooting--HONEST

Browns' offensive coordinator Dan DeFelippo isn't running for office.  What he's had to say about Johnny Manziel isn't about buying your vote, and (permabashers excepted, of course) you should accept this as his sincere opinion.

Per Flip, Johnny has been all over it, and turning in a-plus homework.

Because Mike Pettine said that at this point AT THIS POINT Josh McCown is the presumptive starter, too many have assumed that Manziel won't start at all in 2015.

After all, he was so bad in 2014 that it's impossible that he could not suck anytime soon.  That's not to mention the fact that he went to rehab, which means that he'll need a few years to put his life back together before he can think about starting in the NFL.

The fact that Pettine refused to etch even an opening day starter in stone has to be purely political, right?

In reality, Johnny Manziel wasted most of his rookie season.  But he did get two starts, and more--of real experience.  He sucked.  He was humiliated--and rightfully so.  But this means his rookie season wasn't a complete waste.

If he hadn't had the chance to play, and turn himself into a punch-line, he might still be partying his brains out.  Johnny thought he was all that, but his real-time exposure to the NFL was traumatic.

All rights reserved:  Trauma teaches.

The nimrods who doubt Manziel's arm, accuracy, or talent in general are clueless.  What kept him from succeeding last season--aside from inexperience--was his poor work ethic and lack of focus.

He proved his football intelligence to every coach at his combine.  Johnny knows football.

Josh McCown is indeed the probable opening day starter (DUH), but Manziel is more talented, and has every chance to take over at any time.

As I've said before, it's yet to be seen whether or not Johnny has the information-processing ability to make multiple reads under pressure.

Flip talked about calling protections pre-snap.  I'm confident that Manziel will handle that part fine, now that he's freaking paying attention.  

I was glad to hear that DeFellipo valued Johnny's scrambling, and didn't want to take that away from him.

I'm pretty sick of hearing that last season he found out that this doesn't work in the NFL because in his 2.-something games he didn't run all over everybody.  If you've already buried that part of Manziel's game, you are a mow-ron.

On Deflate-gate radio, I've heard the non-football guys repeatedly declare any Browns' QB D.O.A. because of their recievers...and despite their running backs and admittedly a top-five offensive line.

They cite how between them, Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline had one touchdown last season.

You see, the receptions and yards don't matter.  

It's a crock.  These are two pretty good x/y recievers who get open and make catches.  They have wide catch-radiae so that pinpoint accuracy isn't required.

DeFellipo wants a West Coast offense, which will maximize their production.  A true West Coast also minimizes the importance of a stud number one reciever, as the majority of the passes are short and between the hashmarks.

See Jerry Rice.  He rarely caught a deep pass.  He took short passes deep.

But I digress:

Defensive coordinator Jim O'Neil isn't running for office either, and was honest about stopping the run.  

This fed into the "lack of pressure" narrative last season, because enemy offenses weren't often stuck in obvious passing situations due to their success on the ground.

The Browns' pass-rush didn't suck.  They just didn't have enough opportunities to let the dawgs loose.

Now that Starks, Cooper, and Shelton have been added, and Hughes is healthy,  the pass-rush should magically improve for some strange reason.

Duh.

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Some Stuff Ray Farmer Knew that We Didn't

WR Vince Mayle didn't drop passes at the Senior Bowl.  He didn't put on a great show, but didn't hurt himself either.

I used that link because, in a separate column on the right side of the page, is a commentary by Bob Rang:

Mayle injured his right thumb during the Senior Bowl, and had it in a cast during the combine.  Because of this, he reversed his starting stance for the 40-yard dash.  Rang believes this hurt his clock-time.

Certainly, Mayle was a deep threat in college.  Scouts go over those tapes with a fine-tooth comb, and they know how fast the defensive backs he's blowing by and running away from are.  They know how fast he actually plays--and Mayle is fast.

Pett and Farmer clearly paid a lot of attention to the Senior Bowl this year, as they've collected several of those players.

If Mayle doesn't drop passes, he should actually contribute this season, and could well become a starter in time.

No link here, but I read another article asserting that Johnny Manziel should start game one.  I don't know where some sites get these writers.

The guy says Johnny can't learn anything on the bench.  He's wrong.  And he doesn't seem to care if this guy, who came from a sandlot offense, is ready or not--just throw him in there.

He doesn't seem to care whether or not McCown gives the team the best chance to win.  By inference, this guy already sees 2015 as a lost season for the Browns.

We don't watch him practice.  We're not there when McCown (as he is known to do) ropes him in and drags him into the film room on tuesday for some lessons.  We have no idea if he can even make a second--let alone third read yet, or throw before the wide reciever breaks.

Manziel has yet to prove all of that, and shouldn't be forced to start until he's good and ready.

Rich Gannon (NFL Radio) offered a lot of insight into the whole Hoyer vs. McCown thing.  First of all, I love Brian too, but he sucked like a turbocharged Kirby for the whole second half of the season.

Mike Pettine didn't cave into pressure when he started Manziel.  He was desperate.

Brian (or you or I in the same situation) couldn't be expected to help a younger quarterback learn the ropes.  Brian to date has about one season's worth of starting experience himself.  He's in his prime, and sees himself as an ascending starter.

He's still figuring some of this stuff out for himself, fighting for his future--and he's supposed to take time off to help a kid take his job?

Brian Hoyer is a good guy, but at this stage of his career, he's no mentor.

McCown has been there/done that.  He knows he's old, and accepts that he's sort of doomed.  He's a sincere christian, and loves to help younger players.  Gannon said everywhere he's been, everybody says he's the most selfless player there is.  He sort of adopts younger guys, and treats them like he would his own son.

That's right.  You're going to take my job someday.  I look forward to seeing you grow and be better than I was.  No kidding--this guy is really like that!  And that's the main reason he is here, and Brian Hoyer is not.

Xavier Cooper looks to be setting up on the right guard's outside shoulder more than anything else in both 3-4 and 4-3 sets.  He's got a great punch, and excels at engaging and shedding blocks in a two-gap.

He has the wheels to drop into coverage on a zone-blitze.

I learned a little more about the 3-4 today:

Sometimes, One, two, or all three linemen will rush instead of play two-gap.  When it's all three, all three will attack the gaps to their left.  The RDE will cross the left tackle's face, the nose will go between center and right guard, and the LDE will go between guard and tackle.

That can really mess up an offensive line.  The left guard is supposed to be double-teaming the nose tackle, but suddenly he's gone (being chased by the center).  The left tackle expects a fistfight, and there goes his guy running to the inside, and he has to chase him, too.

The left guard, of he reads it quick, can lunge to his left to try to reroute the right DE, but the guy often has a step on him and he has no angle--especially since he (the guard) probably stepped toward the missing nose tackle at the snap anyway.

Cooper, over the right guard, would be great at this.  The way he plays, he'd set it up with a hard punch, just like when he two-gaps, but then instead of fighting with the guard and reading the play, he's in the gap.

This guy overmatches even athletic guards--he's too quick.  He doesn't have to explode out of his stance to get by him.  He can punch--coming almost to a dead stop--and then dart away.  The guard, once stationary, simply can't stay in his way.  His only hope is a fistful of jersey and a referee not looking.

For that matter, that's what Cooper does when he two-gaps anyway.  Jolts the guard, keeps his hands inside (he has short arms but has turned them into an advantage), and as soon as he knows what's happening, separates and accelerates past the blocker.

Cooper isn't perfect by any means, but he'll make a lot of plays out of the gate.  The writer who "graded" that pick a c-minus doesn't know what he's talking about: this guy is special.

This article on "backfield by committee" is pretty good.  In it, Mike Pettine talks about matchups from week-to-week, which I'd forgotten about.

Now he'll have Crowell, Johnson, and West, and he'll use one more than the other two vs. a given defense depending on which will be most effective.

Some of Crowell's scouting reports were pretty bad, as they didn't describe a physical runner at all.  He was called by some the best pure runner in his draft class, however.  As West was described by some as the best running back, period.

I think Crowell is better, and will pull ahead.  Nor do I see a marked contrast between the two--they're similar to eachother.  Crowell, to me, just looks a little stronger, and like he accelerates faster.

Johnson makes the big plays, though.  It's a beautiful mix.  I didn't think this backfield could get much better, but it sure did.


Monday, May 4, 2015

The Rest of Them

Apologies for slipping Mayle into the third round, which probably would have been a dumb pick.  He was taken in the fourth.

Ibraheim Campbell is listed as a strong safety with an "in-the box" label by many scouts.  They say he's "choppy" in his backpedal.

But this is another guy who played in the Senior Bowl, and Farmer and company seem to have paid attention to his multiple deflections and two interceptions in coverage there, combined with his pretty good clock-times.

Of special note here is his recovery speed.  He can get beat in man-coverage, but he makes up for it quickly with unusual explosion and acceleration.

We can take his tackling and instincts vs the run off the table--nobody disputes these.  He'll certainly be a special teams asset on coverage units, but based on what those few of us who paid attention saw in the Senior Bowl, could evolve into a starting safety in time.

Pettine runs a base cover two, which uses two safeties rather than a free and strong safety.  But no coverage scheme is etched in stone, and free/strong are sometimes used, so Ibraheim could get some spot duty immediately.

In that scheme, Ibraheim could compete to start right away.

Highly underrated.

Charles Gaines is a cover corner with all the instincts and tools, except he needs work with Hans and Franz.  5'10", 180, he's sometimes pushed around, and can't be expected to press cover in the NFL yet.

His frame has a lot of room for growth, but at this point he's probably a practice squad guy.

"Fullback" Malcom Johnson might be the most interesting guy here, because he's unique.

A former wide reciever, Malcom's 4.68 speed isn't good enough there.  Lucky for him, he was switched to tight end/h-back/fullback and used all over the place.

He's 6'1", 231 lbs.,  so playing actual tight end here isn't going to happen.

But he is a very good reciever, and loves to block.  Here, he'll be used at H-back and fullback--sometimes coming out of the huddle and going to a slot position.

Tony Grossi should be happy with this one, because he really likes knocking people on their butts to clear the way for ballcarriers.  Unlike many blocking fullbacks, he has a little height and reach, making it harder to shed his blocks in space.  He's also much faster than most fullbacks.

He should not only make the final roster, but play on special teams and situationally in the offense.

Randall Telfer is a real tight end who is injured a lot.  He's a good blocker, and would be a really good reciever if he didn't drop balls.  He's not a natural pass-catcher.  This was a calculated risk.

Haynes Pullard is an inside linebacker with a lot of knocks on him.  He was kicked out of Stanford for dirty hits, which right away bothers me.  Headhunting, spearing.  

He does have good instincts and covers more ground than his 4.78 clock time indicates, but he's only 6' tall, and (they say) "maxed out" at 240 lbs.

He needs to be protected from blocks.

He's a strong special teams candidate, and beyond that  could play very specific positions here--where it's hard to get a hat on him ("run-and hit" guy).

Ifo Ekpre-Olamu beamed down here from Andromeda...no really...Oh my God what a name...

Anyway he is injured and is strictly a wait-til-next-year pick.  But he's really worth the wait, because he's an excellent cornerback who scouts believe would have gone in the first round if not for the injury.

I have to call this one a steal.  Ray bought a penny stock that might be worth ten bucks next season.

They're also just loading up on defensive backs (and some wide recievers) among the undrafted free agents, and I have a feeling Ray might dig up another safety here.  If he finds another Charles Johnson, I sure hope he doesn't kick him to the curb for an inferior but more eggzzbeereeunzed player again.  Dammit.

Most of these guys have a good shot at special teams, and I'm sure that Ray had that in the back of his mind with each pick.  Some were dice-rolls, but many have a pretty good chance to make this team and be players down the road.

This was mostly for the future.

Malcom Johnson is a big exception, as he fills a clear niche in this new offense.  Listen to me: This guy was more than an afterthought, and could play on ten or more downs per-game as a rookie.

He'll be in-motion, in the slot, or lead-blocking.  He'll catch some passes and he'll hit a lot of people very hard.  This guy is a real football player!

It's funny to hear fans calling into NFL Radio to grade their teams' drafts.  Well, this one for me is incomplete for a couple years, but I do sure feel good about it.

I'd feel better with a Mariota or even a Grayson, but Pettine's logic is NOT flawed.  A journeyman surrounded by talent can win a lot of games.

Light a candle for Johnny.  We can dream, can't we?