Saturday, September 28, 2013

Will the Browns Trade Josh Gordon?

NO!  How dumb are you to ask that question!?

The black helicopters are circling, and there's this "tank" theory to which even smart people I respect ascribe.  They want the best QB in the draft, period, so they don't mind losing.

Ok I get it.  If I were a GM it's something I might do, while lying to all you unwarshed masses about it.

Trading Josh Gordon would pretty much guarantee a very high draft pick, despite a strong defense.  

They should teach critical thinking in gradeschool...read this slowly; pay attention:

This regime wants to build a dynasty, right?  They want to be like the Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, right?  So you can readily understand the turning of fourth and fifth round picks in the last draft into 3rd and 4th rounders in '14 (especially since they knew the venerable Steelers would suck).  You get trading TRich for even a no doubt low first rounder in '14, right?

So far, so good.  The Browns need a Big Ben, Flacco, or Rogers/Luck/Brees/Manning, and they're maneuvering to get him.  You get that.  Check the record, and you see that that special, franchise QB is THE most important part of every Superbowl team since Dilfer's Ravens.

And those guys don't grow on trees.  Bash Holmgren all you want, but he offered about as much for #2 overall in an effort to get RG3 as the the deal the Redskins offered, and if you believe him now, he offered ALL of his draft picks the same year trying to land Luck.

Here's what you're missing: Guys like Josh Gordon are even more rare than franchise quarterbacks.  There haven't ever been more than five guys like him in the NFL, and usually fewer.  

I'm telling you now, Daunte Culpepper was never a great quarterback.  Randy Moss made him look better than he was.  And even past his prime, Randy made the difference for Tom Brady.

And here, with Norv Turner and Chud, Josh Gordon is more valuable.  Possibly even more valuable than the quarterback, since he can make even an average QB look great, and (try to follow me) an average running back get 3.6 YPC and a guy like Cameron--well you know.

Sure, if he tests bad again it's a year off, and his history sucks.  But that's not enough to dump him!  He's not a freaking addict!  

I play poker, and traded stocks, options, and commodities.  I understand leverage, and risk/reward ratios.  

I would trade Josh Gordon.  For somebody else's entire draft.  But only if they drafted pretty high.  And Joe Banner, even if he hopes to lose games and draft higher, won't trade this rare, rare 22 year old commodity for anything less.

Now: As you know I'm a big Peter Smith fan, but he's just out of hand on the QB position.  To illustrate, I will set up a hypothetical interview with him.

Let's pretend in my bizarro world things just sort of cooincide time-wise and place-wise:

ME: So Peter, the Browns need a quarterback.  What should they do?

Peter: They'll need to move up as far as they can in the draft, and get him there.  It won't be cheap.

ME: What about Brian Sipe?  He's looked really good in preseason.

Peter: He doesn't have an NFL arm, and he's too short to see the field.  I'm surprised you even asked about him.  

ME: Kelly Holcomb?  He backed up Manning all that time.  He's taller, with a decent arm.

Peter: Carreer backup.  Atrocious in spot-duty.

ME: Atrocious?  Do you always have to go overboard?  Will "mediocre" work for you, in the interest of accuracy?

Peter: Terrible.  That's my final offer.

ME: What about Montana?

Peter: Again, no arm.  He's also too slight to be a starter.  But he's smart and accurate, and should eventually become a solid backup.

Ok look: I'm just not willing to write Hoyer off yet.  Nor even Weeden.  I know that this regime will draft a new QB high no matter what, but unlike Peter am not positive that our franchise QB isn't already here.

Go, Hoyer!  The Bungles DB's are beat to hell, and even if Hall plays hurt, Gordon will eat his lunch.

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