Before I get started, Peter Smith of Dawg Pound Daily has written the most in-depth and insightful analysis of individual matchups for Browns vs. Dolphins that I've read. No bias whatsoever. It's not for everybody.
Second year right tackle Mitchell Schwartze stands out in this one. Cameron Wake is a great passrusher, and Schwartze will really be challenged. This matchup is magnified by the situation at right guard right next to him, because Miami will probably stunt and Wake will try to cross Schwartze's face inside.
Also, just refer to my ealrier blog in re Terry Pluto's 6-10 prediction. Most of the undrafted free agents won't play much this season, and the Green Bay Packers have four UFA's as starters. Most of the starters and key contributors have at least one or two years in the league, and players make their biggest "jumps" going into year two, so I hear the agonized screams of tortured logic coming from their basements here.
Anyway it might rain today, and this made me wonder if that would be good or bad for the Browns.
I think back on the best mud-running tailbacks the Browns have had, and Leroy Kelly and Jamaal White stand out. Both were pretty small, and Kelly was a college track star and former kick-returner. Much was said of Kelly's "flat-footed" running style.
You'd think that bigger power backs would like mud better, but somehow that doesn't seem to help a whole lot.
I do know that it's much harder to make hard cuts on a wet field. I believe straight-line "track" speed becomes much more important when others have to change directions or even reverse themselves in order to intercept or pursue you.
What about Trent Richardson, then? Well, he's ten pounds lighter now, and before this slim-down had good (not great) speed. He normally relies heavily on very hard cuts, which a wet field will take away from him.
BUT, he should still be able to change directions better than most other guys, because he gets extremely low when he cuts. I think. Maybe.
I think TRich will be a good mudder. On a wet field, he can rely more on track-speed and because everybody else is slipping and sliding won't have to make many hard cuts. Richardson also is an expert at translating speed to power at the end of runs, as he drops low and slams through tiny gaps or into defenders.
He should, in fact, be able to break more tackles and keep going more often on mud than on a firm surface.
What about the offensive line? Well, in pass protection, I believe it helps a lot vs, outside speed rushers that need to go around the tackles, and to lean hard to run in arcs, and get low for leverage. The Browns' tackles aren't very susceptable to bull rushes either, so mud would seem to neutralize these guys.
The guards and centers might have more trouble. I kind of think they could handle the bull-rushers, but the explosive penetrators might have an edge on them. The guards and center are not especially big, and would need to move right and left to get in front of these guys. That's sideways off a plant-leg, vs. the rusher charging foreward, low to the ground, off two planted feet.
It would help them in run-blocking somewhat. True, they'd get stood up by big guys, but linebackers would find it almost impossible to elude them in space without falling down. (Remember, the blocker knows where the running back is supposed to go, and the defender has to go where the ball is, period. You can't fake it. If you get cute the runner is gone).
I believe that mud would help this defensive line a LOT, because they're all big, powerful, and remarkably fast for their size. They excel AFTER contact, from a dead stop, but on slick surfaces Horton would probably have them attack gaps more anyway.
They don't rely on change-of-direction that much, and their weight drives their cleats deeper. If offensive linemen have to chase them, that's trouble.
Browns inside linebackers probably get smashed a lot in mud, but at least they can get outside to turn outside runs in (apologies for the homerism, but TRich won't be trying to turn the corner on a wet field ok? If he's outside he'll start there with a dumpoff.)
This secondary relies heavily on man coverage, and that could get very bad for them in mud. Horton's not a blockhead so he'd probably run more zone, but zones make quick passes work better, which would render the pass-rush less effective.
The Browns tight ends and wide recievers should benefit from mud, including Benjamin, due to his world class track speed. Bess probably wouldn't be as effective since he's not heavy and relies on jukes and hard cuts, but the others are bigger and don't need so much niftiness.
Gordon, especially, will be awesome on mud, because he's a natural long-striding glider. Cameron should just love playing in the mud, especially with little people.
So the offense ought to be better overall in the mud, but the defense a little worse, especially depending on matchups.
Just a theory. I've done zero research and have been full of it before. I'd thought Jamaal White would suck in the mud, for example. And Marty ran man coverage with Frank and Hanford in the mud and that worked out okay too.
However, I do hope it rains today, because that's a West Coast with a super slot-reciever and a converted wide reciever at quarterback.
...Oh crap straight-line speed so if Tannehill turns upfield...
Ok but it would help Schwartze against Wake...but also their tackles against our OLB's...
TRich! That's it! 1:30 to game-time starting my rain dance now
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