Tuesday, September 16, 2008

DA and RAC Corrections

First, try to grasp this fact: Every defense the Browns have or will face has studied the game-tapes of this offense. They are using umbrella/shell coverages to deprive the recievers of their deep routes, forcing shorter crosses and slants.

DA critics need to decide whether they want to bash him for forcing the ball into double coverage deep, or for throwing shorter. Clearly, he's going to get bashed no matter what he does, by those who see what they want to see.

When Edwards sees a guy hanging back ten or more yards, with a safety watching him, he can't get by these guys. Nor could any olympic sprinter. Still, he can sometimes challenge it, if Chud has decided that he can use his height, size, and leaping ability to overcome it. But in most cases, he will break off the route and cross in front of DA, where he is wide open.

This coverage scheme concedes these shorter routes. They know that there will be completions, but they hope to jump the route for the pick or break-up, slam the reciever to knock it loose and intimidate him, or at least nail him before he can do more extensive damage.

They have determined this is how best to stop Anderson and Edwards, expecially since Winslow must also remain underneath (He's very fast for a TE, but free safeties can pick him up and run with him deep.) They know that he, too, will make some catches, but ditto what I said about Edwards.

This scheme keeps passes short and intermediate, taking away what DA and Edwards do best. DA might complete three or five of these in a row, but the first incompetion means a down, and two mean third down. DA is a gunslinger, who has improved his short game (yes he HAS), but this will never be his strong suit. He may never get over 60%. The math simply favors the defense by taking away the deep ball.

This also involves the attack scheme. Defenses are unable to stack the box against Lewis while doing this. Most answer this by adapting to Winslow with a modified nickel. This puts more speed on the field, and the zone approach ensures that every secondary defender spots a run before backpedalling, so that they can close on it immediately and at full speed.

The front will consistantly rush four or five--only in lanes; the objective being first to catch Lewis before he can get going, and second to get to DA. Though this leaves short zones open for quick passes, these are contained by five fast defenders ideally positioned to jump on them.

So far, two of the best defenses in the NFL have proven the efficacy of this approach.

Anderson should have completed five more passes for at least one more touchdown, but Edwards made sure he didn't. He has thrown some bad passes, but for the most part has been okay, unless you're using the young Kosar or Sipe as your baseline...which, I know--you naturally are.

He practices with Stallworth all spring and then loses him on the eve of the first game, after losing time with a concussion, and gets the "bad" Braylon to boot. The Stallworth thing can't be overstated. Stallworth was here precisely to exploit the type of coverage the Bengals used so effectively in game two last season. On the intermittant occasions when he is healthy, Stallworth is very reliable short reciever who runs like Josh Cribbs in the open field. He is also the fastest reciever on the team, and can go deep.

As good as Steptoe is, he's not the same.

Rucker, too, was not merely here to collect splinters. He was going to be one of the recievers. It doesn't matter what you call him--wide reciever, slot guy, or tight end--he was here to tear up umbrella coverages underneath and beat the snot out of defensive backs.

It's easy for the intellectually lazy or downright stupid to blame the quarterback for everything. It's the most obvious thing to do, and works great with an echo-chamber full of barstool quarterbacks.

Anderson threw a low bullet to Steptoe in the end zone. Steptoe defended him, saying that he should have come back towards Anderson. This is called a sight adjustment--he needed to get away from Polumalu, and DA threw it where it was supposed to go. Had Steptoe made this adjustment, Polumalu would still have got to it, but Steptoe would be in his way. He could try to reach around him, or to jar it loose--but couldn't have made the pick.

And an incompletion would have killed the clock DO YOU UNDERTAND an incompletion would have killed the clock.

Look, are you now saying that he should never have thrown it to Steptoe? I didn't see the tapes, but...well, does that mean that he should have forced it into coverage or thrown a high, time-consuming jump-ball instead? That Steptoe is not a real reciever?

The 20/20 hindsight is astonishing.

And by the way, maybe two safeties in the NFL could have made that play, and Polumalu (the bastard) is one of them. Anybody named Manning couldn't have thrown that pass better, and both would have thrown it (I think...I mean I don't know for sure--was Winslow open? Was he told to keep it low no matter what? That is--unlike most of you, I don't assume a lot, so I could be wrong).

The other interception? Well in the swirling wind, predominantly from behind DA at the time, he took something off the ball, lest the wind take it too deep. The wind died. This I know. This is from the players. Big Ben threw a couple of those, too. The only safe passes were low-trajectory bullets.

...oh crap. So now he shouldn't have attempted it, right? Jeez, I give up.

Would Quinn have done better? Yes, I think so. Quinn is a more proficient, accurate short passer. Does that mean that DA should be benched in his favor? No. Because Edwards would still have dropped his passes, he'd probably make the same adjustments and throws on both interceptions,, and would still be missing Stallworth.

It's not DA's fault.

Who's fault is it? Romeo's. I think the field goal thing is debatable, although I would have gone for the first down. They'd still need a touchdown either way, to tie, if not to win. If the Steelers take over right there, the defense could still get a stop, and presumably leave more time on the clock for the offense. Romeo's decision could be called sound, but to me it was timid.

The clock-management stuff showed a startling lack of preparation and a poor clutch decision.

The defense played a really good game against an offense that destroyed a pretty good Texans defense last week.

Two defensive offsides calls on the Browns were bullshit. In both cases, an offensive lineman jumped BEFORE the DL moved, and it was called the other way. One of these kept a touchdown drive alive. There were also bullshit calls against the Steelers, so I'm not saying this was intentional. But the TV announcers completely ignored the screw-up and endorsed the bad calls.

Romeo can be forgiven for mistakes made last season, maybe. But not anymore. He has a lot of good points, but his teams are too often unprepared, and bad decisions at critical times are almost certain.

One especially bright poster on the Browns site asked if maybe Romeo wanted to get fired. If he quit, it would void his guarantees. If he were fired, he could ride off into the sunset a wealthy man. (Incredibly, one of the other posters asked "why would he do that instead of just quitting?").

I'm not sure. I mean... after the Dallas game, when he was asked if he had that de-facto surrender field goal to do over, would he? he said "absolutely".

A couple weeks ago, Phil Savage said that Harrison would be the number two back. This was news to Romeo, but no mistake by Savage. Phil is no doubt constrained from interfering with Romeo, and said this in public to put Crennel in a corner.

RAC got the hint, and has ignored it. I DO suspect that RAC wants to get fired. I mean, look at how old he is. Do you think he wants to coach until he dies? When he's already past the age at which most of the rest of us are done working?

Some pundits are talking about the bloom being off Chudzinski's rose because of the first two games. Don't believe it. Chud hasn't been dropping passes, or pulling groin muscles, or failing to pick up blitzers, or throwing bad passes (I already admitted there WERE a few, okay? The truth is rarely as conveniently absolute as stupid people wish it is).

Many coordinators fall on their faces when made head coaches. We don't know about Chud in that respect yet. And he is young--and a coordinator for only one year.

Still, I would give him the chance. Savage knows him well. I'd fire Romeo, right now, and make Chud the new honcho. Not a panic move. A business decision. The defense is run by Tucker, who might do better without RAC anyway, and it's Chud's offense. On an interim basis, Savage could fill in some gaps to keep the rookie from getting swamped.

The season isn't lost yet. They came to play the Stoolers, and the most likely culprit for this loss is RAC.

For that matter, the defensive game-plan vs. Dallas called for a three-man rush and rediculously soft coverage. When Romeo coordinated here for Butch Davis, I remember a lot of the same stuff. Romeo always seemed timid to me. I sure hope that "give up the short stuff" all up-and-down the field was him, and not Tucker. Since Tucker and his players had talked about being more aggressive, right now it looks like Romeo's style which allowed Dallas to kick the crap out of the defense throughout the first half.

As you saw, they were much more aggressive vs. the Stoolers. Parker was often hit in the backfield, Big Ben pressured. When we had them pinned in their own end-zone on third and long, what happened? A three-man rush! Mel Tucker? I doubt it. That's got Romeo written all over it, and you saw what happened.

Absolutists will hate hearing this, but the defense made huge strides on sunday, and finally was allowed to play to it's strengths. Things are looking up on that side of the ball, despite the loss of Robaire Smith. Williams started instead of Davis, and did well. This is putting more speed on the field. More aggression worked, as it usually does. The secondary was exposed here and there. but not nearly as much as it would have been had Ben had more time. Parker gashed them here and there, but not nearly as much as if he hadn't been hit in the backfield a lot. Let's hope RAC learned something...or is fired.

Steptoe is still new, but is improving. Rucker will be back. The butthead stopped dropping passes last season and can stop dropping them again. Subsequent teams they'll play are no where near the Stoolers vs. the run, and Lewis will do his damage to help this offense work.

This young team will improve over the course of the season, and has just played a good--if stupid--game vs. a projected contender.

Cinci sucks, the Cravens are overrated, and Pitt has a tougher schedule, and can be had.

If DA fails now, that's fine--I like Quinn just fine, and figure he's the future anyway. But we don't make that move until DA really IS as bad as so many of you hope and pray and hallucinate he is.

YOU STAND CORRECTED.

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