A Little Co--

Context. Common sense.

The Browns defense is weak vs. the run. Vs. a healthy Rudy Johnson, Morris and the Pats, the Raiders, and Pittsburgh. These are four of the most effective running offenses in the NFL. While they've been out of position and tackling has been poor---get a grip.

The Browns defense ranks near the bottom. Refer to previous paragraph. They did better against the Pats than any of that team's four previous opponents, and the Pats were helped by a fumble TD return and offensive miscues. Sure, the Pats pretty much dominated, but that's nothing new. It's too soon with this young team to elevate the standards you judge it by above the NFL median. Can't you understand WHY so many of the "experts" prior to this season, projected the Browns to win four or fewer games, and called them the worst...THE worst team in the NFL?

It was not their lack of talent--except for a few ignoramusses in Oblivia--it was YOUTH, and their QB situation, which made so many of these ex-GM's players, and coaches skeptical about the '07 Browns.

Early in the growth curve, progress is most rapid. That's why you need to throw out the Pittsburgh game and, starting with the admittadly crappy defensive performance against the Bungles, step back and see the progress the defense has made, including against the run.

The best news about the Pats game was that Anderson played well. Romeo wasn't playing politics when he said this. Deflected interceptions are usually not dumb throws. Anderson was not befuddled by the shifting coverages, not intimidated by the well-timed jailbreak blitzes. At this stage in his brand-new carreer, and vs. this elite, cerebral defense, that was impressive.

By the way, if Winslow has two good shoulders, he doesn't give up any footballs. I know--I had a similar shoulder injury. When you pull the arm away from the shoulder, the muscles in your arm, and your grip, go numb. K2's wasn't as bad as mine, and it should be much better in a couple weeks.

Ronny Brown has been tearing everybody a new one, and the Browns will probably go to the air against a weak secondary out of the gate. They'll want to do what the Pats do, and get an early lead. They need that lead to take Brown out of the game.

Much has been made of Jason Taylor. Taylor is 33, and he's going against Joe Thomas.

Joey Porter does need a hug, or something. Winslow doesn't sweat him because Joey doesn't have his crew to hold K2 while Joey hits him. Kellen should be more careful if he goes to Las Vegas, however, and take somebody to watch his back. Levi Jones, maybe.

Normally when a player says something like "he doesn't block", I pay attention. Players are the best sources. But this is Joey Porter, so I disregard it. I don't really know about K2's in-line abilities, but he's a very good blocker in space and downfield, and that's how a smart coach uses him. Heiden is the total-package TE they use for more traditional stuff. And Joey is a moron.

I'm sick of Jason Wright being called "unproven". When he steps in for Lewis, there is zero drop-off, and the playbook expands. Lewis plays ahead of Wright because he's much stronger and can break tackles which Wright or Harrison can't. With Lewis, defenses can't really rely on a safety to come up and stop him. They have to take people out of coverage.

But Wright is a very good running back, with sufficient size and durability to carry the load, expecially in this game, which will probably mean more passing.

Harrison: He is NOT an afterthought. He's a big-play back. He was only inactive because the more experienced Wright never fumbled...that's it--the only reason. Expect Harrison to be used in this game, and to make some plays.

The defense here will probably seek to stop Brown first. Miami doesn't have a great passing game. Lemon has showed promise, and this past preseason was as good as, if not better than Green. But my impression is that he's been a bit over-hyped by unhappy Dolphins fans. Naturally, this is his big chance, he'll have a full week with the first team, he'll be ready with his A-game, and the Browns won't have much film on him. And then, he's young, and can be expected to be better than he's been in the past.

Yeah, that makes me nervous. YOUNG, improving, hungry, and talented players make any intelligent analyst nervous. But Lemon can be fooled into mistakes, probably won't react as well to pressure as a vet, and has limitted weapons.

The Browns defense is, as I've said, underrated because of the juggernauts they've had to play so far. The statistics are skewed by the level of competition.

Poole is probably out. His backup is the free-safety semi-cornerback who excels in coverage. Won't help alot against Brown, and they'll probably use Jones more in a strong-safety type role--possibly even as the linebacker in the nickel, in place of Poole.

Thing is, Anderson over the last three weeks has been pretty consistant and is definitely improving. No more yo-yo stuff. He's emerging as a legit starting NFL QB who makes good decisions. The Offensive line is likewise improving by the game, and is already among the better ones in the NFL. Still wonder about the run-blocking stuff a little, but that sounds like it's ok as well.

Yeah, Lewis only got 2.8 YPC vs. the Ravens. And the Ravens had held everybody else, inc. Cinci, to under 2.7 YPC. When you bring something like this up, your bias and subjective thinking shows. Get your feet back on the ground.

I had to give up 4.5 points. Good deal.

I have to say this: One Browns fan said of Harrison: "I was a big Harrison fan, but obviously he hasn't panned out. He needs to improve his blocking and become a better reciever."

Harrison in preseason blocked EXCEPTIONALLY well, piled up massive yardage as a college reciever, was put in the slot here out of the gate, and...god, the stupidity is astonishing. If two guys are pretty much equal (for the moment), but one is more experienced and protects the ball better, you...duh...rank that one ahead of the other one. If your offense uses both fullbacks and extra tight ends, you de-activate your third running back.

Got it? Good.

YOU STAND CORRECTED.

Revised predictions: 13-3. Browns 77, Dolphins 2.